F R I D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 24, 2013
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods
Total Orders (expected +1.3%; previous -5.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -4.7%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -1.4%)
Monday, May 27, 2013
N/A Memorial Day in U.S.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday following yesterday’s key
reversal down. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are
turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2955.00 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally,
weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 3053.50. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing near 3084.00. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 2955.00. Second support is May’s low crossing at 2862.24.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday’s decline.
A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1626.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If June extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside
targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 1685.50. Second resistance is will be hard to project with June extending
this year’s rally into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1651.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1626.71.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday’s key reversal down
unconfirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If the Dow
extends the rally off November’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets
will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
15,086 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 15,542. Second resistance will be hard to project
with the Dow trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 15,264. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 15,086.
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June T-bonds closed up 7/32’s at 143-02.
June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
the Wednesday’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement
level of the March-May rally crossing at 141-19 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-29 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 144-03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
145-29. First support is today’s low crossing at 142-09. Second support is the
87% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 141-19.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
July crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
today’s early weakness. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but turning bearish hinting that a double top might be in or is near.
Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13 are needed to confirm that
a double top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April’s low,
April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is
May’s high crossing at 97.17. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at
98.06. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13. Second support
is May’s low crossing at 90.32.
June heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week’s
decline. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 281.93 are needed to confirm that a top
has been posted. If June renews the rally off April’s low, the 50% retracement
level of the February-April decline crossing at 298.06 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April
decline crossing at 298.06. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the
February-April decline crossing at 304.20. First support is last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 281.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.97.
June unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.94. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off
May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at
296.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high
crossing at 292.76. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of the
February-May decline crossing at 296.67. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 277.04. Second support is May’s low crossing at 268.79.
June Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last week’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 4.444 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 4.064 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 4.269. Second
resistance is May’s high crossing at 4.444. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 4.064. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of
this year’s rally crossing at 3.831.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates below
resistance marked by the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline
crossing at 84.52. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month’s rally, the July
2012 high crossing at 85.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 83.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 84.59. Second resistance
is the July 2012 high crossing at 85.29. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 83.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 83.02.
The June Euro closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.06 are needed to confirm that a
low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May’s high, April’s low
crossing at 127.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 130.06. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 131.98. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 127.98.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 127.51.
The June British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline, March’s low crossing at 1.4823 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5362 are needed to confirm
that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1.5209. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5362. First support is today’s low crossing at 1.5012. Second support is
March’s low crossing at 1.4823.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline off last week’s high, the July 2012 low crossing at .10148 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10513 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at .10348. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10513. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
.10166. Second support is the July 2012 low crossing at .10148.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as
it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last
May’s low crossing at 95.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 98.43 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.77.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.43. First support
is today’s low crossing at 96.15. Second support is last May’s low crossing at
95.30.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
year’s decline, monthly support crossing at .9421 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9960 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .9960. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10147.
First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at .9640. Second support is monthly
support crossing at .9421.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
June gold closed higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the
past five days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1429.60 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If June renews this month’s decline, April’s
low crossing at 1321.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1429.60. Second resistance is May’s high
crossing at 1487.20. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1336.30. Second
support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.
July silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in
or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.371 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at 19.316 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 23.371. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24.835.
First support is Monday’s low crossing at 20.250. Second support is monthly
support crossing at 18.756.
July copper closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated
some of the rally off May’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off this
month’s low, April’s high crossing at 345.95 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.55 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 341.80. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 345.95. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.55. Second support is May’s low
crossing at 304.65.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
July coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage
for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing
at 11.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s decline, the 50%
retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.41 is July’s next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.50 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
July sugar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible. If July extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 16.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 17.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If July extends today’s decline, the 62% retracement
level of the November-March rally crossing at 80.56 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.83 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
July Corn closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.62.
July corn closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for
a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. If July renews the
rally off April’s low, the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.25 would confirm a downside
breakout of this month’s trading range while opening the door for a possible
test of April’s low crossing at 6.10. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 6.69. Second resistance is the April 1st gap crossing at 7.76.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.25. Second support is April’s
low crossing at 6.10.
July wheat closed up 14 3/4-cents at 7.03 1/4.
July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting
that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.04 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July
renews this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.04
3/4. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4. First support is
Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.74. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64
3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 1/4-cents at 7.54 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61
are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month’s
decline, April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
7.32 1/2. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 8.13 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
July renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the
July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 8.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First
resistance is April’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4. First support
is the reaction low crossing at 8.02. Second support is April’s low crossing at
7.60.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
July soybeans closed up 5 1/4-cents at 14.99 1/2.
July soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April’s
low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If July extends the
rally off April’s low, the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned decline
crossing at 15.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.16 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15.46 3/4. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing
at 15.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.45 3/4.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.16 1/2.
July soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $437.00.
July soybean meal posted a downside reversal on Thursday and closed lower.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s low, the 87% retracement level
of the September-January decline crossing at 456.10 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 415.60 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 451.40. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-January decline crossing at 456.10. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 423.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 415.60.
July soybean oil closed up 2 pts. at 49.66.
July soybean closed slightly higher on Thursday but the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 50.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.28 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.23.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 51.03. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 49.28. Second support is April’s low crossing
at 48.08.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $0.35 at $94.20.
June hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the rally off March’s low. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s low, the
62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 96.18 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.18
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 94.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement
level of the December-March decline crossing at 96.18. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 92.18. Second support the reaction low
crossing at 90.00.
June cattle closed down $0.87 at 119.12.
June cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 120.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June
renews this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 115.44 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
120.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.40. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 118.80. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 115.44.
August feeder cattle closed down $1.67 at $142.65.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
146.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends this
year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 132.45 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.60. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 149.80. First support is Monday’s
low crossing at 142.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.45.
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T H A N K Y O U
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