Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future has advanced 5 points to 15331. The US Dollar Index advanced 0.080 points to 80.533. Gold is trending lower 12.08 dollars to 1313.70. Silver is trending lower 0.3364 dollars to 21.4530. The Dow Industrials retreated 49.71 points, at 15401.38, while the S&P 500 moved down 8.07 points, last seen at 1701.84. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 8.39 points to 3766.34. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Tuesday
7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous -1.6%)
Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
MoM % Change (previous -0.3%)
12MonChgPct (previous +4%)
52WkChgPct (previous +3.4%)
9:00 AM ET. July S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10-city Index, M/M (previous +2.2%)
10-city Index, Y/Y (previous +11.9%)
20-city Index, M/M (previous +2.2%)
20-city Index, Y/Y (expected +12.4%; previous +12.1%)
National Q/Q
National Y/Y
9:00 AM ET. July U.S. Monthly House Price Index
House Price Index
House Price Index (MoM)
House Price Index (YoY)
10:00 AM ET. Sept Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index (expected 79.9; previous 81.5)
Expectation Index (previous 88.7)
Present Situation Index (previous 70.7)
10:00 AM ET. Sept Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Manufacturing Index (previous 14)
Retail Revenues Index (previous -15)
Services Revenue Index (previous 14)
Shipments Index (previous 17)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.89M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.64M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.17M)
Refinery Runs (previous 93.4%)
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CURRENCIES
December Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, February’s low crossing at 79.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.71. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 80.15. Second support is February’s low crossing at 79.66.
The December Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, February’s high crossing at 137.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 135.73. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 137.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.25.
The December British Pound closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5740 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1.6112. Second resistance is the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5916. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5740.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, January’s high crossing at .11062 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10800 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .11015. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at .11062. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10851. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10800.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday ending a two-day correction off last Thursday’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low, June’s high crossing at 98.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 97.99. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 98.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.01.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at .10330 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10078 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at .10223. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10330. First support is this month’s low crossing at .9943. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9860.
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ENERGIES
October crude oil closed lower on Monday extending this month’s decline. October decline as the United Nations Security Council worked toward a resolution based on the Geneva accord between the U.S. and Russia. The Syria premium has basically been taken out of the market. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.56 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 112.24. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43.
October heating oil closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off August’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 304.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.63. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14. Second support is August’s low crossing at 292.61.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off August’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 271.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.27. First support is today’s low crossing at 261.60. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.631 confirming that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.517 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August’s low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.517. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418.
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FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June’s low, the 2012 high crossing at 27.25 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August’s high, May’s low crossing at 81.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
Corn closed up 2 1/4-cents at 4.53 1/4.
December corn closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. Today’s rebound was supported by another week of strong export data. However, upside potential was limited as traders begin to position ahead of next Monday’s quarterly stocks report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.68 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.68 1/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 5.08 1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.48 1/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4.
December wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 6.53 1/2.
December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday and above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 6.62 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.36 3/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 5-cents at 7.97 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.03 would open the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 7.17. If December renews the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.88 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1-cents at 6.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends this summer’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.48. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.97 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
soybeans closed down 7 1/2-cents at 13.07 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 13.15 as it extended this month’s losses. Harvest is underway, which is easing tight supplies. Early yield reports have been decent but no yield trend has yet been confirmed. However, chances that this year’s soybean crop might be a little bigger than expected will likely keep downward pressure on the market near-term. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.59. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 14.09 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 13.05 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.85.
December soybean meal closed down $2.40 at 409.20.
December soybean meal closed lower on Monday as it extended this month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 404.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 428.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 428.00. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 451.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 404.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 390.60.
December soybean oil closed down 10 pts. at 42.24.
December soybeans closed lower on Monday. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 41.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 44.46. First support is today’s low crossing at 41.96. Second support is August’s low crossing at 41.85.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this year’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3144.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 3241.50. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 3329.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3191.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3144.71.
The December S&P 500 closed lower for the third day in a row on Monday. The December Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its largest setback in a month as financial shares slumped while investors watched speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policies. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1666.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1694.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1666.23.
The Dow closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 15,438 signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Investors have shifted their focus on the Fed’s policies as a risk is rising from a possible government shutdown in the near future. President Obama and Republican congressional leaders are hardening positions on the federal budget and borrowing limit and recent political setbacks suffered by both are raising the odds of a government shutdown. A debt default or near miss could trigger a significant setback in the equity markets, which was alluded to by forty percent of global investors surveyed in a Sept. 10 Bloomberg poll. They indicated that they would pull back on U.S. markets in the event of a government shutdown, which many economists say would be less damaging than a debt default. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,163 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off August’s low, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 15,709. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today’s low crossing at 15,368. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,163.
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INTEREST RATES
T-bonds closed up 15/32 at 132-05.
December T-bonds closed higher on Monday and are poised to renew the rally off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 135-28. First support is this month’s low crossing at 128-12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.
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LIVESTOCK
hogs closed up $0.12 at $90.17.
October hog closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off March’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 92.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.30. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 89.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.50.
October cattle closed up $0.65 at 126.60.
October cattle gapped up and closed higher on Monday following last Friday’s friendly cattle-on-feed report. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 127.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 126.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.88. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.46.
October feeder cattle closed up $1.87 at $162.10.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Monday following last Friday’s friendly cattle-on-feed report. Friday’s report further deepens the potential hole in December-March fed cattle marketings. These holes in marketings fuel predictions of higher prices. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May’s low, January’s high crossing at 164.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 162.22. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 164.75. First support is today’s gap crossing at 160.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.59.
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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold closed lower on Monday as the U.S. economy continues to improve. The Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to hold stimulus for now will help prices only in the short term. However, gold could drop below $1,250 an ounce before the end of the year as economic data strengthens and investors expect the Fed to start reducing its asset purchases. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1365.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1365.80. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August’s low crossing at 1272.10.
December silver closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday’s decline. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.095 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 19.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.095. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 25.160. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 21.225. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 20.867.
December copper closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews last week’s rally, August’s high crossing at 339.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 326.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 335.95. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 339.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 326.23. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 319.05.
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