2014

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Friday, January 31, 2014

Summary
The Dow Future is dropping 110 points to 15623. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.041 points to 81.092. Gold has gained 4.16 dollars to 1248.15. Silver has advanced 0.11555 dollars to 19.31905. The Dow Industrials moved up 109.82 points, at 15848.61, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 19.99 points, last seen at 1794.19. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 72.12 points to 4123.55. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
The Big One Reports Today – Amazon.com Inc. (NASADQ:AMZN)
Thursday Jan 30th

Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires
Thursday Jan 30th

In-Depth Analysis: Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL)
Wednesday Jan 29th

Key Events for Friday

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index

ECI Qtlry (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

ECI Yearly (previous +1.9%)

8:30 AM ET. Dec Personal Income & Outlays

Personal Income (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

Personal Spending (expected +0.2%; previous +0.5%)

PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0%)

PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +0.9%)

PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)

PCE Core Price Index Yearly (expected +1.1%)

9:45 AM ET. Jan ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI

Employment Index (previous 51.6)

New Orders Index (previous 43.9)

Prices Paid Index (previous 63.3)

Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 59; previous 59.1)

Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 60.7)

9:55 AM ET. Jan Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

Sentiment Index End month (expected 81.2; previous 82.5)

Expectations Index End Month (previous 72.1)

12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3%)

5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 98.6)

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies

1:00 PM ET. Jan Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator

DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 53.9)

3:00 PM ET. Jan Agricultural Prices

Farm Prices, M/M (previous -2.2%)

N/A Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s second four-year term ends

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Currencies Snapshot
US DOLLAR INDEX	81.092	+0.041	+0.05%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX	21.77	+0.14	+0.64%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar	1.119335	+0.001880	+0.17%
Euro/US Dollar	1.353000	-0.001970	-0.15%
JAPANESE YEN Mar 2014	0.009781	+0.000043	+0.44%
SWISS FRANC Mar 2014	1.1087	+0.0012	+0.11%

CURRENCIES

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, January’s high crossing at 81.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 81.52. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First support is last week’s low crossing at 80.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.40. First support is January’s low crossing at 135.06. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68.

The March British Pound was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.6301 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would signal that a trend change has taking place. If March renews 2013’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738 is the next upside target. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 1.6662. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6301. Second support is December’s low crossing at 1.6203.

The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11070 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January’s low, the reaction high crossing at .11333 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .11237. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .11333. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11070. Second support is January’s low crossing at .10926.

The March Canadian Dollar extended this winter’s decline overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing 87.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.99. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.10. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 89.17. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.90.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .9920 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9646 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at .9822. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .9920. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9646. Second support is January’s low crossing at .9486.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Energy Snapshot
CRUDE OIL Mar 2014	97.40	-0.83	-0.85%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Mar 2014	3.0186	-0.0089	-0.29%
NATURAL GAS Mar 2014	4.892	-0.119	-2.43%
RBOB GASOLINE Mar 2014	2.6535	-0.0208	-0.77%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY	53.1400	+0.3420	+0.65%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE	57.5800	+0.5691	+0.99%

ENERGIES

ENERGY MARKETS: March Nymex crude oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the decline off December’s high crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the decline off December’s high crossing at 99.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.02.

March heating oil was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 306.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 304.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 307.02. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.10.

March unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 269.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December’s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 256.26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 269.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 278.43. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 260.28. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 256.26.

March Henry natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of January’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish warning bulls that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.492 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends January’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 6.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 5.486. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 6.108. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.769. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.492.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Food Snapshot
COCOA Mar 2014	2909	-3	-0.10%
COFFEE Mar 2014	121.6	+1.6	+1.33%
ORANGE JUICE-A Mar 2014	139.70	+2.00	+1.42%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST	50.23	+0.75	+1.50%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST	42.80	-0.12	-0.28%

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s rally, January’s high crossing at 12.26 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January’s high, the reaction low crossing at 11.02 is the next downside target.

March cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off October’s high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 14.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.37 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends Monday’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 82.39 is the next downside target.

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Symbol	Last	Change	%
Grains Snapshot
CORN Mar 2014	433.00	-0.50	-0.12%
OATS Mar 2014	411	-1	-0.24%
WHEAT Mar 2014	555.75	+2.25	+0.41%
TEUCRIUM CORN	30.83	+0.23	+0.75%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST	42.5800	+0.3900	+0.92%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST	5.6532	+0.0232	+0.41%
SOYBEANS Mar 2014	1275.25	+0.25	+0.02%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Mar 2014	1275.250	+0.250	+0.02%
SOYBEAN MEAL Mar 2014	426.1	+0.9	+0.21%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN	22.51	+0.14	+0.62%

GRAINS

GRAINS: March corn was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, December’s high crossing at 4.40 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below minor support crossing at 4.21 would renew the decline off January’s high. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 4.40 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.21. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.06 1/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 6.12 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.50 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 6.10 3/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall’s decline, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.28 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.08 3/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends 2013?s decline, weekly support crossing at 5.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.31 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.40. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 5.95 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.78.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

March soybeans were fractionally higher overnight. However, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.85 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.85 1/2. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 13.30 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.59 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.47.

March soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January’s high, the reaction low crossing at 409.00 is the next downside target. If March renews the rebound off last week’s low, January’s high crossing at 440.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 440.20. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 440.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 409.00. Second support is January’s low crossing at 403.40.

March soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this winter’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, weekly support crossing at 36.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 38.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 38.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 40.00. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 36.91. Second support is weekly support crossing at 36.31.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Indexes Snapshot
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS	15848.61	+109.82	+0.69%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED)	4123.55	+72.12	+1.75%
S&P 500 CASH	1794.19	+19.99	+1.11%
SPDR S&P 500	179.33	+1.98	+1.10%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX	15.40	-0.77	-5.00%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX	113.00	+1.66	+1.47%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends this week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, December’s low crossing at 3415.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews 2013’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 3635.25. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 3454.25. Second support is December’s low crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it resumes its decline off December’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December’s high, December’s low crossing at 1755.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1815.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1815.28. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 1846.50. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1764.00. Second support is December’s low crossing at 1755.00.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Interest Snapshot
T-BONDS Mar 2014	133.81250	+0.53125	+0.40%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE	50.6825	+0.0025	0.00%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014	120.656250	+0.179688	+0.15%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2014	144.31250	+0.81250	+0.57%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF	24.89	-0.01	-0.04%

INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low, October’s high crossing at 134-08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 133-29. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 134-08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Livestock Snapshot
FEEDER CATTLE Mar 2014	168.825	+0.125	+0.07%
LEAN HOGS Apr 2014	93.925	+0.300	+0.32%
LIVE CATTLE Apr 2014	140.350	-0.175	-0.12%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB	28.24	-0.03	-0.11%

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $0.17 at $93.62.

April hog closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews January’s rally, October’s high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 94.50. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.13. Second support is January’s low crossing at 90.00.

April cattle closed unchanged at 140.52.

April cattle closed unchanged on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November’s low, upside targets will be hard to project with April trading in uncharted territory. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 143.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.67.

March feeder cattle closed down $0.52 at $168.70.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 166.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter’s rally, upside targets will be hard to project now that March is trading in uncharted territory. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 170.67. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 166.44. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 165.45.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Metals Snapshot
GOLD Apr 2014	1248.4	+5.9	+0.47%
SPDR GOLD SHARES	119.7783	-2.6917	-2.25%
SILVER Mar 2014	19.330	+0.204	+1.07%
PALLADIUM Mar 2014	707.20	+0.35	+0.05%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA	29.92	+1.85	+6.20%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS	40.11	-0.95	-2.37%

PRECIOUS METALS

PRECIOUS METALS : April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1245.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the August-October downtrend line crossing near 1261.10 are needed to confirm and end to the downtrend off August’s high while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1280.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 1306.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1245.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1230.80.

March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 18.720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.875 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above December’s high crossing at 20.480 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.875. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 20.480. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 18.970. Second support is January’s low crossing at 18.720.

March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 317.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 331.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 327.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 331.10. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 320.71. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 317.20.

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#	symbol	name	last	net	%	volume	score	triangles
1.	TY.H14	10 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014	125.453125	-0.171875	-0.14%	1,392,073	+100		Entry Signal
2.	ZN.H14.E	10 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014	125.781250	+0.328125	+0.26%	282,928	+100		Entry Signal
3.	NG.G14	NATURAL GAS Feb 2014	5.557	+0.524	+9.26%	17,604	+100		Entry Signal
4.	NG.F15	NATURAL GAS Jan 2015	4.600	-0.119	-2.54%	10,578	+100		Entry Signal
5.	ED.H19	EURODOLLAR Mar 2019	96.15	-0.02	-0.02%	4,519	+100		Entry Signal
6.	ED.Z19	EURODOLLAR Dec 2019	95.825	-0.020	-0.02%	1,502	+100		Entry Signal
7.	ED.U19	EURODOLLAR Sep 2019	95.925	-0.020	-0.02%	1,490	+100		Entry Signal
8.	NN.N14	HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS FINCL Jul 2014	4.325	-0.153	-3.54%	643	+100		Entry Signal
9.	NN.M14	HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS FINCL Jun 2014	4.302	-0.158	-3.67%	630	+100		Entry Signal
10.	CT.K14.E	COTTON #2 May 2014	87.13	+0.26	+0.30%	626	+100		Entry Signal

+3.2 GDP = Correction Over? – 01/31/2014

Good news was served up Thursday morning with a better than expected +3.2% showing for Q4 GDP. It proves that the 4% growth experienced in Q3 was not a fluke. Indeed we are accelerating above the Muddle Through pace of the past.

This adds to my firm conviction that there is absolutely no fundamental need for stocks to go lower right now. However, I do respect that a deeper correction is a plausible outcome after last year’s massive gains. As such I think that 1800 is the key for what happens next.

Meaning that if we crack above 1800, then likely the correction is over. Until that time it’s better to assume the market is still in correction mode which allows us to buy more great stocks at discounted prices.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

S&P Ends the Day Up as US Equities Explode Higher

The final gauge of Chinese manufacturing PMI for January showed the first contraction since July of last year. The HSBC/Markit index fell to 49.5 for the month from 50.5 in December 2013. This morning the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would continue to conduct unlimited forex market interventions as long as the ruble remained weak against other major currencies. The ruble had reached a new 5-year low vs. the US dollar earlier today.

Initial jobless claims rose to 348,000 in the last week, above the 4-week moving average of 333,000. The economist estimate had been for 330,000. The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP rose 3.2% at a quarterly annualized rate, in line with the consensus economist estimate. In 2013, real GDP growth was 2.7%.

The December 2013 pending home sales showed a shocking drop-off in home sales activity during the month, which can be directly attributed to the extreme cold weather. Pending home sales contracts fell 8.7% month-over-month and 6.1% year-over-year, well below the -0.3% economist estimate for both.

US equities exploded higher today after holding critical technical support yesterday at SPX 1,772. However, emerging market stocks and currencies continued to be the main driver of risk assets. The S&P 500 rose 1.13% led by gains in health care and consumer discretionary stocks.

Natural gas continued to trade erratically. Natural gas futures for March delivery fell 8.25% in today’s session after rallying 11.2% yesterday.

Facebook (FB) rose 13.62% after reporting significantly better than expected fourth-quarter results, including a 10% beat on the revenue line. The strength extended to the rest of the social media sector, with peers like LinkedIn (LNKD) and Twitter (TWTR) powering sharply higher.

Tomorrow morning December 2013 US personal spending and income data will be released. Economists expect spending and income will rise 0.2% in the month. Additionally, the PCE deflator, the inflation gauge that shows what consumers lose from their purchasing power, is expected to rise to a 1.1% year-over-year rate. Also, the first major January manufacturing survey is due out from Chicago. Economists expect the Chicago PMI will remain near its multi-year high at 59.0.

A significant amount of data is due out overnight from Japan, which should influence the USD and US Treasuries. Japan’s December 2013 jobless rate, CPI, vehicle production, and industrial production are scheduled to be released. Also due out is German retail sales, eurozone unemployment, and consumer price index.

Earnings will be a bit lighter since it is Friday. Notable reports include Weyerhaeuser (WEY), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV), Mastercard (MA), Mattel (MAT), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVC), and Tyson Foods (TSN).

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 31/01/2014

MERCATO USA

Wall Street chiude in rialzo, vola Facebook

A New York i principali indici hanno chiuso la seduta in rialzo. Il Dow Jones ha guadagnato lo 0,7%, l’S&P500 l’1,13% e il Nasdaq Composite l’1,77%. Il Dipartimento del Commercio ha reso nota la stima preliminare del PIL relativo al quarto trimestre 2013, indicando una variazione annualizzata del 3,2%. Il dato è superiore alle attese. Sul fronte societario Facebook +14,1%. Il social network ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 523 milioni di dollari in netta crescita rispetto ai 64 milioni di un anno prima. I ricavi sono saliti a 2,59 miliardi da 1,59 miliardi mentre l’Eps adjusted si è attestato a 0,31 dollari. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 0,27 dollari su ricavi per 2,35 miliardi.

Google +2,57%. Il motore di ricerca ha annunciato la cessione di Motorola Mobility alla cinese Lenovo per 2,91 miliardi di dollari. Google ha precisato che conserverà la maggior parte del portafoglio brevetti di Motorola.

Visa +1,73%. Il colosso delle carte di credito ha chiuso il primo trimestre con un utile di 1,41 miliardi di dollari (2,20 dollari per azione), in crescita del 9% rispetto ad un anno prima. I ricavi sono saliti dell’11% a 3,16 miliardi. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 2,17 dollari su ricavi per 3,14 miliardi.

3M -1,69%. La multinazionale conosciuta per i marchi scotch e post-it ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 1,1 miliardi di dollari (1,62 dollari per azione) in crescita rispetto ai 991 milioni di un anno prima. I ricavi sono aumentati a 7,57 miliardi da 7,39 miliardi. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 1,61 dollari su ricavi per 7,73 miliardi. La società per il 2014 stima un utile per azione tra 7,30 e 7,55 dollari.

Exxon Mobil -1,18%. La prima compagnia petrolifera al mondo ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 8,35 miliardi di dollari (1,91 dollari per azione), in calo del 16% rispetto ad un anno prima. I ricavi sono scesi a 110,9 miliardi da 114,7 miliardi. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 1,91 dollari su ricavi per 114 miliardi.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Borsa di Tokyo ancora debole. Accelera l’inflazione

Il Nikkei termina in calo l’ultima seduta della settimana, a 14914,53 punti con un ribasso dello 0,62%. Il Tasso di Disoccupazione giapponese e’ risultato a dicembre pari a +3,7% in calo rispetto al 4,0% rilevato nel mese precedente e inferiore alle stime degli analisti che avevano previsto un tasso al +3,9%. Markit ha reso noto che l’Indice PMI manifatturiero Nomura/JMMA giapponese e’ salito in gennaio a quota 56,6, sui livelli massimi degli ultimi 12 anni, in crescita rispetto alla precedente rilevazione pari a 55,2 punti. L’indice si allontana dai 50 punti, indicando un ulteriore miglioramento delle performance del settore manifatturiero giapponese.

Il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria giapponese ha comunicato questa mattina la lettura preliminare sulla Produzione Industriale di dicembre. Tale rilevazione si e’ attestata al +1,1% m/m deludendo le stime degli addetti ai lavori fissate su una crescita pari all’1,2%. Rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012 i livelli di produzione sono cresciuti del 7,3%.

Il Ministero degli Affari Interni e delle Comunicazioni giapponesi ha reso noto il dato relativo all’inflazione “core”, ovvero al netto dei cibi freschi. Nel mese di dicembre tale rilevazione ha fatto segnare un incremento dell’1,3% su base annuale (consensus +1,2%). Il dato totale sull’inflazione nazionale e’ risultato in crescita dell’1,6% superiore alla rilevazione precedente pari al +1,5%. Il valore si sta progressivamente avvicinando all’obiettivo di inflazione del 2,0% fissato dalla Bank of Japan. La crescita dell’inflazione rappresenta l’ultimo segnale che l’allentamento monetario aggressivo da parte della Banca del Giappone stia contribuendo a spingere il Giappone fuori dalla deflazione che ha ostacolato l’economia per quasi due decenni.

E’ stato inoltre reso noto che la spesa delle famiglie ha evidenziato, nel mese di dicembre, un incremento dello 0,7% su base annuale (consensus pari a +1,2%). Nella rilevazione precedente era stato rilevato un valore pari a +0,2% a/a.

In Giappone il dato relativo ai Nuovi Cantieri edili residenziali e’ salito a dicembre del 18% su base annuale, facendo registrare una crescita superiore alle attese degli analisti che avevano stimato un incremento del 13,5%. Gli ordinativi di nuove costruzioni sono invece cresciuti del 4,9% nello stesso periodo. Sul fronte societario, i titoli dell’export risultano ancora penalizzati dal rafforzamento dello yen sul dollaro: Toyota (-1,27%), Sony (-1,51%), Sharp (-2,21%) e Nikon (-2,10%). Precipita Toshiba (-7,49%) dopo l’annuncio di un utile netto in calo nei primi nove mesi dell’esercizio corrente. Acquisti invece su NEC Corp (+10,74%) che beneficia di un utile straordinario di 27 mld di yen derivante dalla vendita di attività nei servizi di accesso a internet. Chiuse per festività le altre principali piazze asiatiche.

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MERCATI EUROPEI

Borse europee deboli, acquisti su LVMH e BT

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto l’ultima seduta dell’ottava deboli. Il Dax30 di Francoforte cede lo 0,35%, il Cac40 di Parigi lo 0,27%, l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,23%. Poco sopra la parità il Ftse100 di Londra (+0,07%).

LVMH +5%. Il gruppo del lusso ha chiuso il 2013 con un giro d’affari di 29,15 miliardi di euro, in crescita rispetto ai 28,1 miliardi del 2012. A livello organico l’incremento è pari all’8%. Il risultato operativo è salito del 2% a 6,021 miliardi mentre l’utile netto si è attestato a 3,436 miliardi (+0,4%). Gli analisti avevano previsto un utile di 3,5 miliardi, un risultato operativo di 6,06 miliardi e un giro d’affari di 29,3 miliardi. Il Board ha proposto un dividendo di 3,10 euro per azione (+7% rispetto al 2012).

BT +3%. L’ex British Telecom ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con ricavi pari a 4,6 miliardi di sterline (+2%) e con un utile ante imposte di 722 milioni (+8%). I dati sono superiori alle attese. Era dal primo trimestre 2009 che BT non registrava un incremento delle vendite. Per l’esercizio in corso il gruppo si attende un utile corrente nella parte alta della forchetta prevista (6-6,1 miliardi di sterline). BBVA +1,5%. La seconda banca spagnola ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con una perdita di 849 milioni di euro, inferiore alle previsioni.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Borsa italiana poco sotto la parità. Deboli Fiat e bancari, settore lusso in ascesa

Il Ftse Mib segna -0,22%, il Ftse Italia All-Share -0,17%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,34%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,07%.

Borse europee in leggero calo. Ieri sera a New York l’S&P 500 ha terminato a +1,13%, il Nasdaq Composite a +1,77% e il Dow Jones a +0,70%. I future sui principali indici USA al momento sono in lieve flessione. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha chiuso a -0,62%, mentre la borsa di Hong Kong è rimasta chiusa per festività (anche lunedì 3 Febbraio).

Avvio all’insegna della debolezza per Fiat (-1,7%), in linea con il settore europeo (-1,1% per l’EURO STOXX Automobiles & Parts) e per la controllante Exor (-1,1%). L’altro ieri il Lingotto ha pubblicato i dati 2013 (inferiori alle attese) e annunciato la riorganizzazione in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. In flessione anche i bancari: l’indice EURO STOXX Banks cede l’1%. In evidenza a Milano UBI Banca (-1,1%), Unicredit (-1,1%), Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,9%). In controtendenza Banca Profilo (+6,1%) che stamattina ha pubblicato il nuovo piano industriale. Inizio di seduta molto positivo per i titoli del settore lusso, trainati al rialzo da LVMH (+6,1%): il colosso francese ha chiuso il 2013 con un giro d’affari di 29,15 miliardi di euro, in crescita rispetto ai 28,1 miliardi del 2012.

A livello organico l’incremento è pari all’8%. Il cda ha proposto un dividendo di 3,10 euro per azione (+7% rispetto al 2012). Risultati ottimi sono stati comunicati ieri pomeriggio a mercato chiuso anche da Salvatore Ferragamo (+5,8%): la casa fiorentina ha archiviato lo scorso esercizio con ricavi pari a 1,258 miliardi di euro, in aumento del 9% a cambi correnti e del 11% a cambi costanti rispetto al 2012. Il sentiment positivo coinvolge anche gli altri titoli del settore come Brunello Cucinelli (+4,6%) e Yoox (+1,8%).

Buon avvio per Maire Tecnimont (+2,8%) che ieri a mercati chiusi ha annunciato di essersi aggiudicata nuovi contratti e integrazioni per servizi di ingegneria e procurement, licensing e technology packages per un valore complessivo pari a circa €96 milioni. I contratti, relativi al core business oil & gas, petrolchimico e fertilizzanti, sono stati aggiudicati in Europa, America del Nord, Medio Oriente e Asia Orientale.

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TITOLI DEL GIORNO

Atlantia sta tentando da due settimane circa di avere ragione di una resistenza molto rilevante, senza riuscire per il momento nell’intento. I prezzi hanno infatti toccato a piu’ riprese dal 15 gennaio in area 17,80 il 61,8% di ritracciamento del ribasso disegnatosi dai massimi del novembre 2007 ed il lato alto del canale moderatamente crescente che e’ possibile disegnare dai minimi di marzo 2009. Gli studiosi dei grafici ritengono che il mancato superamento del ritracciamento del 61,8%, percentuale derivata dalla successione di Fibonacci, impedisca di poter considerare il movimento che ha portato i prezzi su quella resistenza, nel caso in questione il rialzo partito dai minimi di settembre 2011, come una tendenza a se stante costringendo invece a vederlo come un elemento correttivo della fase precedente (il ribasso dal top di novembre 2007). Fino a che area 17,80 non sara’ alle spalle rimarra’ quindi elevato il rischio di assistere alla ripresa di una fase negativa che potrebbe in linea teorica anche spingersi sulla base del canale, citato, quello che contiene le oscillazioni del titolo dai minimi di inizio 2009, attualmente passante in area 9,35 euro. La minaccia di una discesa cosi’ ampia per il momento e’ solo teorica, discese dei prezzi sotto i 16,45 euro, trend line che sale dai minimi di giugno 2013, e la violazione di 16,05, media mobile a 100 giorni, renderebbero tuttavia molto piu’ concreto il pericolo. Supporti intermedi sulla via del ribasso a 14,11, gap del 5 settembre, ed a 13,38, base del gap del 23 luglio. Se la mancata rottura di area 17,80 potrebbe anticipare conseguenze molto gravi, il suo superamento avrebbe implicazioni positive altrettanto rilevanti. Oltre 17,80 il primo target sarebbe infatti posto a 18,65, lato alto del canale che sale dai minimi di giugno 2013, ma vi sarebbero anche buone probabilita’ di assistere a movimenti fino ai 20,50 punti almeno.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo suggeriamo quindi di attendere la rottura di 17,80 per intervenire, target a 18,65, stop loss sotto 17,50.
Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo e’ invece opportuno pensare ad una riduzione dell’esposizione gia’ sui livelli attuali per poi tagliarla definitivamente sotto 16,45. Incrementare invece oltre 17,80 per il test di 18,65.

La correzione che Banco Popolare ha avviato dai record annuali toccati a 1,78 euro, per quanto estesa, non ha modificato l’impostazione rialzista di fondo. La discesa si è infatti limitata a testare, a 1,20, il 61,8% di ritracciamento del rialzo partito lo scorso luglio, un livello dal quale il titolo ha tentato una prima reazione, sfruttando la condizione di ipervenduto conseguente alla velocità con cui si è realizzato il ribasso. Recuperi oltre 1,366, media mobile a 100 giorni, fornirebbero segnali interessanti per il test di 1,42 ed eventualmente di 1,482, per la ricopertura del gap ribassista del 27 gennaio. Al contrario, la violazione di 1,20 rischia di ricondurre i prezzi sul supporto a 1,07, linea di tendenza che sale dai minimi della scorsa estate, in corrispondenza del minimo del 30 settembre.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire sui livelli attuali protetti da stop sotto 1,20 per i target a 1,42 e 1,482 euro.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 1,20 per i target a 1,42 e 1,482 euro.

La correzione partita a inizio anno ha spinto UnipolSai a ridosso della base del canale ascendente che aveva condotto il rialzo del titolo da fine 2012 a metà 2013, per poi divenire resistenza ed essere quindi superata con il rally di fine 2013. Questa linea ascendente sembra ora tornata a fungere da supporto dato che nelle ultime sedute i prezzi hanno arrestato la loro discesa proprio a ridosso della stessa. In caso di rottura (chiusura di seduta inferiore a 2,20 euro) si creerebbero dunque le premesse per una nuova accelerazione al ribasso con obiettivo in area 1,95/2,00, livelli che tra Ottobre e Novembre hanno efficacemente contenuto la tendenza rialzista delle quotazioni. La tenuta del supporto potrebbe invece favorire un avvicinamento al top di metà Gennaio a 2,38, con target successivo sui 2,5560, massimo del 6/1. Al di sopra di questa ultima resistenza verrebbe riattivato il trend ascendente di fondo verso 2,85 e 3,00.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 2,38 per 2,5560, stop sotto 2,26.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 2,5560 per 2,85 e 3,00, ridurre sotto 2,20 e uscire alla violazione di 1,95.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Venerdì 31 Gennaio 2014
00:15 GIA Indice PMI manifatturiero gen;
00:30 GIA Consumi dic;
00:30 GIA Inflazione dic;
00:30 GIA Tasso di disoccupazione dic;
00:50 GIA Produzione industriale dic;
08:00 GER Vendite al dettaglio;
08:45 FRA Consumi dic;
09:00 SPA Inflazione gen;
10:00 ITA Tasso di disoccupazione dic;
11:00 EUR Inflazione gen;
11:00 EUR Tasso di disoccupazione dic;
11:00 ITA Indice prezzi alla produzione dic;
14:30 USA Indice costo del lavoro T4;
14:30 USA Deflatore consumi dic;
14:30 USA Redditi dic;
14:30 USA Consumi dic;
15:45 USA Indice PMI Chicago gen;
15:55 USA Indice fiducia consumatori (Univ. Michigan) (finale) gen.

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HEADLINES

Ferragamo: ricavi 2013 a 1,25 miliardi (+9% a cambi correnti)
Nell’esercizio 2013, il Gruppo Salvatore Ferragamo ha realizzato Ricavi Consolidati pari a 1.258 milioni di euro, in incremento del 9% a tassi di cambio correnti (+7% nel solo quarto trimestre 2013), rispetto ai 1.153 milioni di euro registrati nei dodici mesi dell’esercizio 2012.

Banca MPS: Vice DG Antonio Marino lascia la Banca
Dopo 41 anni di servizio e ed una carriera tutta interna all’azienda, il Vice DG Antonio Marino lascia la Banca. Antonio Marino ha percorso tutta la sua carriera all’interno di BMps, ricoprendo via via ruoli di sempre più alta responsabilità fino ad assumere nel 2012, con la Direzione di Fabrizio Viola, il ruolo di Vicario e di Vice Direttore Generale Commerciale. Dal 2008 ha ricoperto la carica di Amministratore Delegato di MPS Capital Services Banca per le Imprese. L’Amministratore Delegato Fabrizio Viola ha ringraziato, a nome dell’Azienda, Antonio Marino per il contributo dato alla Banca.

Morgan Stanley punta su Intesa
Morgan Stanley ha inserito Intesa SanPaolo nella “most preferred list”, la lista delle azioni da comprare con convinzione.
LVMH in rally a Parigi dopo i dati
Rally di LVMH a Parigi dopo la pubblicazione dei risultati del 2013: il titolo segna un rialzo del 6% e si porta a 129,85 euro, trascinando al rialzo buona parte del settore del lusso europeo. Lo scorso esercizio si è chiuso con ricavi record da 29,15 miliardi di euro (+4%) e il risultato operativo è salito del 2% a 6,021 miliardi mentre l’utile netto si è attestato a 3,436 miliardi (+0,4%). Gli analisti avevano previsto un utile di 3,5 miliardi, un risultato operativo di 6,06 miliardi e un giro d’affari di 29,3 miliardi, ma i dati sono comunque piaciuti al mercato. Il free cash flow della compagnia è aumentato del 20% a 2,95 miliardi di euro. Aumentato del 7% il dividendo a quota 3,10 euro. Nel 2014 la società punta a consolidare ulteriormente la propria leadership globale nel settore del lusso.
Bank of America, il governo Usa alza la richiesta di risarcimento per i mutui venduti da Countrywide
Il Governo degli Stati Uniti ha alzato la richiesta di risarcimento di Bank of America, portandola a 2,1 miliardi di dollari dopo che una giuria ha ritenuto l’istituto responsabile di frode per alcuni mutui ingannevoli venduti dalla sua controllata Countrywide. Il Governo a stelle e strisce ha fatto sapere che la richiesta si basa sul reddito lordo generato dalla frode. Prima della sentenza, la richiesta avanzata dal Dipartimento di Giustizia è stata di 863,6 milioni di dollari e si basava sulle perdite lorde che le società finanziarie Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac avevano avuto dopo l’acquisto, fra il 2007 ed il 2008, di mutui dalla Countrywide Financial Corp. Bank of America non ha rilasciato al momento alcun commento.

LVMH in rally a Parigi dopo i dati
Rally di LVMH a Parigi dopo la pubblicazione dei risultati del 2013: il titolo segna un rialzo del 6% e si porta a 129,85 euro, trascinando al rialzo buona parte del settore del lusso europeo. Lo scorso esercizio si è chiuso con ricavi record da 29,15 miliardi di euro (+4%) e il risultato operativo è salito del 2% a 6,021 miliardi mentre l’utile netto si è attestato a 3,436 miliardi (+0,4%). Gli analisti avevano previsto un utile di 3,5 miliardi, un risultato operativo di 6,06 miliardi e un giro d’affari di 29,3 miliardi, ma i dati sono comunque piaciuti al mercato. Il free cash flow della compagnia è aumentato del 20% a 2,95 miliardi di euro. Aumentato del 7% il dividendo a quota 3,10 euro. Nel 2014 la società punta a consolidare ulteriormente la propria leadership globale nel settore del lusso.

Bank of America, il governo Usa alza la richiesta di risarcimento per i mutui venduti da Countrywide
Il Governo degli Stati Uniti ha alzato la richiesta di risarcimento di Bank of America, portandola a 2,1 miliardi di dollari dopo che una giuria ha ritenuto l’istituto responsabile di frode per alcuni mutui ingannevoli venduti dalla sua controllata Countrywide. Il Governo a stelle e strisce ha fatto sapere che la richiesta si basa sul reddito lordo generato dalla frode. Prima della sentenza, la richiesta avanzata dal Dipartimento di Giustizia è stata di 863,6 milioni di dollari e si basava sulle perdite lorde che le società finanziarie Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac avevano avuto dopo l’acquisto, fra il 2007 ed il 2008, di mutui dalla Countrywide Financial Corp. Bank of America non ha rilasciato al momento alcun commento.

Google: utile +17% nel quarto trimestre
Il motore di ricerca Google ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 3,38 miliardi di dollari, in crescita del 17% rispetto ad un anno prima. I ricavi adjusted sono saliti a 13,55 miliardi da 11,34 miliardi mentre l’Eps adjusted si è attestato a 12,01 dollari. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 12,20 dollari su ricavi per 13,55 miliardi.

Quartz Daily Brief—Russia slows, Bernanke exits, Japan inflates, the 1% freak ou

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The Fed’s first female chair. It’s Ben Bernanke’s last day in the hot seat, as Janet Yellen steps up to the US central bank’s top position on Saturday. Her mission: wind down the Fed’s stimulus without damaging the global economy.

Russia’s slowing growth. Analysts predict that Russia’s economy expanded by 1.5% in 2013, the weakest growth in four years. The country relies heavily on oil and gas exports, which suffered from low demand due to Europe’s economic woes.

The state of Europe’s job market. The euro zone’s unemployment rate has hardly budged for the last year, hovering around 12.1%, and markets aren’t holding their breath for a shocker today. But even a tiny drop would point toward a post-crisis recovery.

Mexico’s interest-rate decision. Most expect no change from today’s Bank of Mexico meeting, but policymakers will somehow have to answer to Mexico’s rising inflation, which hit 4.6% this month.

Thailand braces for elections. Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government is pressing forward despite the risk of violent clashes with protesters who have vowed to disrupt Sunday’s vote. Here’s how it could all play out.

While you were sleeping

Japanese inflation sped up. Prices rose 1.3% in December, a shot in the arm for the Bank of Japan’s goal to reach 2% inflation. Some analysts remain skeptical it can go much beyond that.

Microsoft moved closer to a new chief. Satya Nadella, the company’s head of enterprise and cloud computing, is set to replace outgoing CEO Steve Ballmer. If he takes over, expect Nadella to aim Microsoft squarely at Google and Amazon in the cloud services wars.

Amazon made a profit and still disappointed investors. Though revenue grew 20%, it was the slowest increase since 2009, and the fact that profit more than doubled didn’t mollify the markets; perhaps they’re used to Amazon’s penchant for sacrificing profit for growth.

Libya sued Goldman Sachs for outsmarting it. The country’s sovereign-wealth fund filed a lawsuit accusing Goldman of showering the fund’s staff with gifts and smooth-talking them into “worthless” trades that netted Goldman a hefty profit.

Good news for US growth. The economy expanded by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, buoyed by the country’s highest consumer spending in three years.

The year of the horse began. Asians marked the lunar new year with fireworks and dancing dragons. In China, hundreds of millions of people travel home for the celebrations (but pets hate them).

Quartz obsession interlude

Heather Timmons on life after banking in Hong Kong. “Rather than leaving Hong Kong in search of the next banking hot-spot, a growing number of finance pros have started businesses, from last-minute hotel booking websites to crowd-funding groups to organic farms. The career-hopping has helped push start-ups to 16% of new investments in Hong Kong last year, from 11% in 2010, Bloomberg reported today. In many cases, they’re going directly after their old employers’ business.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

The one percent are freaking out. Global bank bashing and Obama’s push against income inequality are driving America’s wealthiest to mass paranoia.

The Super Bowl doesn’t boost the US economy. Predictions of multi-million dollar cash injections are usually just hype.

China can’t let its housing bubble pop. If it does, the damage to household wealth and consumption would be devastating.

Stop listening to Tony Blair on the Middle East. He’s usually on the wrong side of history.

Surprising discoveries

Blockbuster lives south of the border. There’s still a thriving video-rental market in Mexico.

The gynecologist will see you now, sir. The American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology relaxed its ban on male patients.

The Seinfeld cast is re-uniting. In the timeless words of George Constanza, “I’m back, baby, I’m back!“

The Cronut became the C®onut. Many bakeries worldwide have imitated the croissant-donut hybrid, but now the name is sacrosanct.

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CWS Market Review – January 31, 2014

January 31, 2014

“Go for a business that any idiot can run — because sooner
or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.” – Peter Lynch

It seems like the stock market’s had a difficult time making up its mind recently. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at an 11-week low, but Thursday was the index’s best day all year. Overall, the earnings news continues to be good, but that’s largely because expectations were so low.

There are several things weighing on the market’s mind. Late last week, Wall Street was spooked by troubles in the emerging markets (I’ll have more on that in a bit). There are also signs that China’s economy is slowing. On top of that, the Federal Reserve this week decided again to taper its bond purchases by $10 billion next month. The Fed declined to make any changes to its language vis-a-vis raising short-term interest rates. I think we can expect interest rates to remain low for a good deal longer.

On Thursday, the government said that the U.S. economy grew, in real terms, by 3.2% in the final three months of 2013. Relative to the past few years, that’s not bad. It’s especially good considering that spending by the federal government was down. But in order to see the stock market continue to rally, and see the unemployment rate continue to fall, we still need to see a lot of improvement in GDP growth.

If the economy could grow at an average rate of, say, 3.5% over the next three years, and if inflation could bump up to 2.5%, then our fiscal situation would be vastly improved. I’m not saying it will happen. I’m just saying it would be a great help for investors. Corporate America has stretched profit margins about as far as they can go, so it’s time to see some top-line growth.

The earnings news for our Buy List continues to be good. Both Ford and Qualcomm released impressive results this week, although we had a lousy report from Moog. Some of our stocks are holding up well despite the market’s fragile mood. Express Scripts, for example, just hit a new 52-week high. In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll discuss the issues affecting the emerging markets. I’ll also take a look at our recent earnings report and preview next week’s reports. But first, let’s see why the bond and currency markets have been so worried over the “Fragile Five.”

Don’t Blame the Fed for the Emerging-Markets Mess

The stock market’s been rattled lately, and for once, it’s not due to fears from Europe. Instead, there’s been growing concern about the stability of emerging markets, and more specifically, what’s been call the “Fragile Five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa). Many talking heads are blaming the Federal Reserve for the recent unpleasantness, but this is one case where the Fed isn’t to blame, although it was the instigator of events.

Let’s take a step back. When the financial crisis hit, the Fed and other central banks lowered interest rates to the floor. Econ 101: Money goes to where it’s treated best, so people started investing heavily in emerging markets where the yields (and risks) were higher.

The problem is that a lot of the emerging economies have some serious structural problems. The inflow of cash bought them time, but they haven’t done much to change their ways. Now that the Fed is winding down Quantitative Easing, investors realize that near-0% interest won’t last much longer. Naturally, that will dry up the capital flow to the emerging markets. This problem is compounded by the fact that the governments in the emerging markets loaded up on dollar-dominated U.S. Treasury debt. As a perverse result, they’re doubly sensitive to moves in U.S. interest rates.

People knew this day would eventually come; they just didn’t know when. “When” is apparently now. The governments in the emerging markets are somewhat like a person who builds a balsa-wood house in a tornado zone. When the house goes to smash, they blame the poor foresight on the builder’s part, not the tornado.

The situation in Argentina is especially screwed up — although when I use the phrase “screwed up” in conjunction with our friends on the Rio Plata, it’s like saying there’s “trouble” in the Middle East. The president of Argentina promised not to devalue the currency, but reality intervened. Of course this was after the government spent a pile of cash trying to defend the indefensible peso. In the last three years, Argentina’s currency reserves have been cut in half, and no one really knows what the inflation rate or dollar-peso exchange rate truly is.

I don’t want to pick on Argentina. Turkey is in bad shape as well. The Turkish central bank just jacked up interest rates by 4.75%, and the lira still fell. (Forex traders are an ornery lot.) Brazil doesn’t look so hot, either. The one saving grace for a lot of EMs was their monster customer in China. But when we got sluggish economic reports from China, that really spooked EM investors.

It’s gotten so desperate that even the poor battered yen has done well (see my AFLAC discussion later). I’ll give you another easy rule: If your country exports a lot of commodities (especially to China), then your currency probably got whacked. Places like Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela are running very low on their forex reserves. Broadly speaking, I think currency devaluations can be the best of several bad options, but they don’t work all by themselves. You need reform, too, and that can be politically unpopular.

Several years ago, Bill Gross of PIMCO made a daring investment when he loaded up on Brazilian bonds. That was a shrewd move, and it turned out to be a big winner. So it was a bit jarring when Gross recently said that Brazil is no longer attractive.

I don’t know where all these recent EM developments are headed, but we’re going to soon find out who’s been responsible and who hasn’t. Mexico, for example, will probably pull through just fine. Poland as well. But I’m not so sure about others. Until then, we can expect a little more volatility in our markets and a lot more in the emerging markets. Now let’s run through some of our recent Buy List earnings reports.

Moog Is a Buy up to $66 per Share

Last Friday, we got our first earnings dud of this earnings season. Moog (MOG-A), the maker of flight control systems, reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of 88 cents per share, which was one penny below estimates.

But the troubling part was that Moog lowered its full-year guidance. The company now sees earnings for this fiscal year (ending in September) of $3.65 per share. That’s down from its earlier range of $3.95 to $4.10 per share. The market was not at all pleased, but remember that guidance is still above the $3.50 per share that Moog made last year.

The lower guidance has three causes. First, Moog plans to spend 15 cents per share more on R&D for its aircraft business. Secondly, they also see their business-system conversion costing 10 cents per share more than originally expected. Finally, Moog projects revenue for this year to fall by 2%, which will knock 10 cents per share off the bottom line.

John Scannell, Moog’s CEO, addressed their slow start: “Our commercial-aircraft business is strong, but our defense and industrial markets are weaker than planned. Despite the difficult market conditions, we continue to invest in programs which will deliver long-term benefits. Although we have revised our fiscal ’14 outlook downward somewhat, it is still a step up from fiscal ’13.”

The shares got banged up last Friday, and the stock continued to drift lower this week. In fact, shares of Moog came very close to dipping below $60 on Thursday. While this news is disappointing, it doesn’t change my fundamental opinion of the company. Moog is a well-run outfit that’s facing a tough environment. We’re in this game for the long-term. I’m lowering my Buy Below to $66 per share.

More Impressive Earnings from Ford Motor

On Tuesday, we got another good earnings report from Ford Motor (F). For Q4, the automaker earned a cool $3.04 billion, or 31 cents per share, which beat Wall Street’s consensus by three cents per share.

This is a huge year for Ford, as they’re introducing several new vehicles. The basic story remains intact. Ford’s doing a great business in North America, but Europe is struggling, although the Old World is beginning to show signs of improvement. The success story in North America continues to be the F-Series trucks. They’ve been the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. for the last 32 years in a row.

In Europe, Ford lost $1.61 billion last year. They expect more losses this year, but a profit by 2015. Slowly, things are getting better. Ford lost $571 million in Europe last quarter, which is bad, but it’s better than the $732 million they lost in Q4 2012. Also, Ford had a small loss from Latin America and a small profit from Asia, but those are still pretty minor parts of their overall business.

Ford reiterated that profits will fall a bit this year ($8 billion to $7 billion pre-tax), but that’s because the company has very ambitious plans to roll out new models. Ford is introducing 23 new vehicles, of which 16 are in North America. Overall, these were good results. Ford remains a buy up to $17 per share. The stock is especially attractive below $15.30 per share.

Qualcomm Beats Earnings by Eight Cents per Share

After the closing bell on Wednesday, Qualcomm (QCOM) reported fiscal Q1 earnings of $1.26 per share. That topped Wall Street’s forecast by eight cents per share. Going into this earnings report, a lot of people on Wall Street were expecting weak smartphone sales to hurt earnings. Qualcomm’s shares had dropped four straight days prior to the earnings report.

Fortunately, the earnings report helped calm some nerves, and QCOM rallied 3% on Thursday. I often say that our new buys appear to be damaged merchandise. Investors assume that something is wrong, and in Qualcomm’s case they jump to the conclusion that Apple and Samsung are their only customers. That’s just not so.

The best news is that Qualcomm raised its full-year forecast. For this fiscal year, which ends in September, Qualcomm now sees earnings ranging between $5 and $5.20 per share. The previous range had been $4.95 to $5.15 per share. They also reiterated their full-year-sales range of $26 billion to $27.5 billion, which is an increase of 5% to 11%. The big gains are coming from emerging markets.

For the current quarter, Qualcomm expects earnings to range between $1.15 and $1.25 per share. That’s a bit weaker than expected. Wall Street had been expecting $1.26 per share. Qualcomm sees revenues coming in between $6.1 billion and $6.7 billion. The consensus was for $6.72 billion.

Qualcomm had said they expected a slow start this fiscal year. On the plus side, they were able to improve profit margins in their chips business due to cutting costs. For Qualcomm, their big opportunity is the arrival of LTE in China. However, the Chinese government is currently investigating Qualcomm to see if they’ve broken any anti-monopoly laws. Overall, this was a good quarter for Qualcomm. The company is sitting on $31.6 billion in cash. I’m keeping our Buy Below at $79 per share.

CR Bard Earns $1.42 for Q4

After the closing bell on Thursday, CR Bard (BCR) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.42 per share. That was three cents more than estimates. This is becoming a nice habit for them. You may recall that three months ago, Bard beat earnings by 10 cents per share, and the stock gapped up 7% the next day.

For all of 2013, Bard earned $5.78 per share. Bard’s board also authorized a $500 million buyback program. As usual, I’d rather have that as a dividend, but at least it’s something. The company has increased its dividend every year since 1972, and I think we can expect another increase this spring. I’m keeping my Buy Below on Bard at $142 per share.

Three Buy List Earnings Reports Next Week

Earnings season rolls on. We have three more Buy List earnings reports coming next week.

On Tuesday, AFLAC (AFL), the supplemental insurance company, is due to report their fourth-quarter earnings. Three months ago, ALFAC told us to expect operating earnings to range between $1.38 and $1.43 per share. They also gave us full-year guidance for 2014, but a lot of that depends on what the Japanese yen does, since so much of their business comes from Japan.

If the yen stays between 95 and 100 to the dollar, then AFLAC sees 2014 earnings as ranging between $6.28 and $6.52 per share. The yen is currently about 103 to the dollar. In 2012 and 2013, the yen fell sharply as a result of the government’s weak-yen policy but it’s been creeping up a bit lately. Either way, AFLAC is still going for about 10 times this year’s earnings. AFLAC is an excellent company.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) had a great run during the last half of 2013, and I think it will continue into 2014. The company will report its fourth quarter results on Wednesday, February 5. For the third quarter, CTSH beat estimates by three cents per share. They also raised their full-year 2013 guidance from $4.32 to $4.37 per share, which translates to Q4 earnings of $1.10 to $1.15 per share. Jefferies raised their price target on CTSH to $112 per share, and Barclay’s raised theirs to $120. For now, our Buy Below is at $104.

Fiserv (FISV) is also due to report on Wednesday. Wall Street expects earnings of 81 cents per share, which is a nice increase over the 70 cents per share they made one year before. (Remember that FISV split 2 for 1 in December.) The company has been doing very well lately; free cash flow rose 21% for the first nine months of 2013. I think Wall Street’s guidance for 2014 might be a little too high.

Before I go, I also want to lower the Buy Below on our retailers. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is a buy up to $71 per share, and Ross Stores (ROST) is a buy up to $74 per share.

That’s all for now. Next week, we’ll get more Buy List earnings reports. There will also be some important economic reports. The ISM Index comes out on Monday. The ADP jobs report is on Wednesday. On Thursday, we’ll have a look at productivity and trade. Then on Friday is the important January jobs report. The last jobs report was pretty weak, so it will be interesting to see if that was a blip or the beginning of a trend. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last seven years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.

2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Thursday’s Earnings Guidance 30/01/2014

Positive Guidance
Computer Programs and Systems Sees Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:30:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Computer Programs and Systems, Inc. (CPSI) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.25 to $3.40 per share on revenue of $205.0 million to $215.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.00 per share on revenue of $210.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

CSC Raises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:15:31 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

CSC (CSC) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $3.80 to $3.90 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $3.50 to $3.70 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $3.67 per share for the year ending March 31, 2014.

Symetra Financial Sees Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:10:10 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Symetra Financial Corporation (SYA) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.65 to $1.85 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.64 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Aspen Technology Raises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:10:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN) said during its conference call it expects third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $91.0 million to $94.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $93.0 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it now expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $0.80 to $0.84 per share on revenue of $372.0 million to $378.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $0.69 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $360.0 million to $368.0 million and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $365.3 million for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Bottomline Technologies Raises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:16 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Bottomline Technologies, Inc. (EPAY) said during its conference call it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of approximately $1.25 per share on revenue of approximately $298.5 million. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $1.19 per share on revenue of $298.0 million and the current consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $298.3 million for the year ending June 30, 2014.

C.R. Bard Guides Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:10 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

C.R. Bard Inc. (BCR) said during its conference call it expects first quarter earnings of $1.83 to $1.87 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Cepheid Guides Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Cepheid (CPHD) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.24 to $0.29 per share on revenue of $446.0 million to $461.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $447.2 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Zynga Sees 2013 Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:04:12 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Zynga Inc (ZNGA) said it expects a first quarter non-GAAP loss of approximately $0.01 per share on revenue of $155.0 million to $165.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $149.0 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 non-GAAP earnings of $0.01 to $0.03 per share. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.04 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2014.

Accuray Raises Revenue Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Accuray Inc (ARAY) said it expects fiscal 2014 revenue of $340.0 million to $350.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was revenue of $325.0 million to $345.0 million and the current consensus estimate is revenue of $332.6 million for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Harman International Raises Guidance Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:00:14 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of approximately $4.16 per share on revenue of approximately $5.10 billion. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of approximately $3.85 per share on revenue of approximately $4.70 billion and the current consensus earnings estimate is $4.03 per share on revenue of $4.83 billion for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Hillshire Brands Narrows Guidance Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:10 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Hillshire Brands Company (HSH) said it now expects fiscal 2014 earnings to be near the high-end of its previous guidance range of flat to down mid-single digits, or to the high-end of approximately earnings of $1.63 to $1.72 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.66 per share for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Alliant Techsystems Raises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $9.50 to $9.80 per share on revenue of $4.73 billion to $4.78 billion. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $9.10 to $9.40 per share on revenue of $4.68 billion to $4.73 billion and the current consensus earnings estimate is $9.37 per share on revenue of $4.71 billion for the year ending March 31, 2014.

Cardinal Health Raises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $3.75 to $3.85 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $3.62 to $3.72 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $3.70 per share for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Northrop Grumman Guides Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $8.70 to $9.00 per share on revenue of $23.5 billion to $23.8 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $8.53 per share on revenue of $23.52 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Under Armour Sees 2014 Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Under Armour Inc. (UA) said it expects 2014 revenue of $2.84 billion to $2.87 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $2.77 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Guides Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:30:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN) said it expects 2014 non-GAAP earnings of $3.70 to $3.80 per share on revenue of $2.00 billion to $2.02 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.46 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Thermo Fisher Guides Above Estimates with Acquisition
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:10 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) said it expects 2014 earnings of $6.70 to $6.90 per share on revenue of $16.63 billion to $16.83 billion, including the Life Technologies acquisition. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.95 per share on revenue of $13.41 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Ball Guides Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Ball Corp. (BLL) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.61 to $3.77 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.50 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Inline Guidance
Camden Property Trust Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:04:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Camden Property Trust (CPT) said it expects first quarter funds from operations of $1.02 to $1.06 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $1.03 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $4.10 to $4.30 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $4.28 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

American Financial Provides 2014 Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 5:43:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.50 to $4.90 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.59 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 5:15:14 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd. (AOSL) said it continues to expect second quarter revenue of $75.0 million to $79.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $77.5 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2013.

Eastman Chemical Sees 2014 Earnings In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 5:05:27 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) said it expects 2014 earnings of $6.70 to $7.00 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $6.91 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Constant Contact Provides Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:28:12 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Constant Contact Inc (CTCT) said it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.10 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $77.1 million to $77.5 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $76.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 earnings of approximately $0.96 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Essex Property Trust Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:27:43 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $8.10 to $8.40 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $8.22 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

PerkinElmer Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:25:24 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

PerkinElmer Inc. (PKI) said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.40 to $2.45 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Emulex Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:15:30 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Emulex Corp. (ELX) said it expects third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.14 to $0.17 per share on revenue of $110.0 million to $114.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $114.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Microchip Technology Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:15:29 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.59 to $0.63 per share on revenue of $482.4 million to $496.8 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.62 per share on revenue of $488.4 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Landstar System Sees First Quarter In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:15:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.56 to $0.61 per share on revenue of $640.0 million to $690.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $643.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

TeleNav Revises Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:07:13 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

TeleNav, Inc. (TNAV) said it expects a third quarter loss of $0.15 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $34.0 million to $36.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $35.0 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it now expects a fiscal 2014 loss of $0.31 to $0.22 per share on revenue of $149.0 million to $153.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was loss of $0.18 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $145.0 million to $153.0 million and the current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $153.0 million for the year ending June 30, 2014.

JDS Uniphase Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:06:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) said it expects third quarter revenue of $420.0 million to $440.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $425.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Cytec Industries Guides Earnings In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:06:05 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Cytec Industries Inc. (CYT) said it expects 2014 earnings of $5.50 to $5.90 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.71 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Corcept Therapeutics Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:06:04 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (CORT) said it expects 2014 revenue of $24.0 million to $28.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $24.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Amazon.com Guides Revenue In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:13 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) said it expects first quarter revenue of $18.20 billion to $19.90 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $19.66 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Riverbed Technology Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:11 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Riverbed Technology Inc (RVBD) said during its conference call it expects first quarter earnings of $0.21 to $0.23 per share on revenue of $262.0 million to $268.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.23 per share on revenue of $263.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Brightcove Provides Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:10 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Brightcove Inc. (BCOV) said it expects a first quarter loss of $0.10 to $0.09 per share on revenue of $28.8 million to $29.5 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $28.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects a 2014 loss of $0.40 to $0.31 per share on revenue of $126.0 million to $130.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $125.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Virtusa Sees Earnings Below Estimates; Revenue Above
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Virtusa Corp (VRTU) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.33 to $0.37 per share on revenue of $110.3 million to $112.3 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $107.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Broadcom Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) said during its conference call it expects first quarter revenue of $1.90 billion to $2.00 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $1.97 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

NetSuite Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

NetSuite Inc. (N) said during its conference call it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.01 to $0.02 per share on revenue of $119.0 million to $121.0 million and 2014 earnings of $0.24 to $0.26 per share on revenue of $535.0 million to $540.0 million. The current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $119.5 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $532.5 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Natural Grocers Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 earnings of $0.58 to $0.63 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share for the year ending September 30, 2014.

Proofpoint Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:04:39 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Proofpoint, Inc. (PFPT) said it expects a first quarter non-GAAP loss of $0.21 to $0.18 per share on revenue of $40.0 million to $41.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $36.7 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects a 2014 loss of $0.53 to $0.48 per share on revenue of $174.5 million to $176.5 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $165.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

MICROS Systems Updates Guidance with Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:02:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

MICROS Systems, Inc. (MCRS) said it expects fiscal 2014 non-GAAP earnings of $2.46 to $2.51 per share on revenue of $1.320 billion to $1.345 billion. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $2.46 to $2.50 per share on revenue of $1.295 billion to $1.32 billion and the current consensus earnings estimate is $2.48 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Micrel Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:39 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Micrel Inc. (MCRL) said it expects first quarter GAAP earnings of $0.05 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $58.2 million to $59.4 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $60.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Green Dot Guides Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.22 to $1.28 per share on revenue of $640.0 million to $650.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.24 per share on revenue of $632.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

National Instruments Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

National Instruments Corp. (NATI) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.15 to $0.27 per share on revenue of $272.0 million to $302.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $299.8 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Textura Provides Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Textura Corporation (TXTR) said it expects a second quarter non-GAAP loss of $0.22 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $13.7 million to $14.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.19 per share on revenue of $13.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects a fiscal 2014 loss of $0.62 to $0.55 per share on revenue of $57.5 million to $60.5 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.57 per share on revenue of $59.4 million for the year ending September 30, 2014.

SurModics Raises Earnings Guidance, but Remains In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:00:11 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

SurModics Inc. (SRDX) said it now expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $0.85 to $0.97 per share and continues to expect revenue of $58.0 million to $62.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $0.80 to $0.92 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $60.1 million for the year ending September 30, 2014.

Celestica Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:00:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Celestica, Inc. (CLS) said it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.17 to $0.23 per share on revenue of $1.30 billion to $1.40 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $1.41 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

MTS Systems Reaffirms for the Year
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:00:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

MTS Systems Corporation (MTSC) said it expects second quarter earnings of $0.65 to $0.78 per share on revenue of $136.0 million to $141.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.84 per share on revenue of $146.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 earnings of $3.55 to $3.70 per share on revenue of $585.0 million to $605.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.66 per share on revenue of $599.8 million for the year ending September 30, 2014.

Peabody Energy Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) said it expects first quarter results to range from a loss of $0.10 per share to earnings of $0.14 per share. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.05 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Prologis Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Prologis, Inc. (PLD) said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $1.74 to $1.82 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $1.78 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

UPS Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:45:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) said it expects 2014 earnings of $5.05 to $5.30 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.28 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Celgene Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:32:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Celgene Corp. (CELG) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $7.00 to $7.20 per share on revenue of approximately $7.50 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $7.25 per share on revenue of $7.50 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

3M Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:14 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

3M Company (MMM) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $7.30 to $7.55 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $7.47 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Multimedia Games Reaffirms Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:13 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Multimedia Games Holding Company, Inc. (MGAM) said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 earnings of $1.23 to $1.27 per share on revenue of $217.0 million to $223.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.28 per share on revenue of $222.6 million for the year ending September 30, 2014.

Cameron Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Cameron Corp. (CAM) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.70 to $0.75 per share and 2014 earnings of $3.60 to $4.00 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and $3.77 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

CMS Energy Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $1.74 to $1.78 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.75 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

ITT Educational Sees 2014 In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.00 to $3.65 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.14 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Manpower Guides In-line for the First Quarter
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Manpower, Inc. (MAN) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.62 to $0.70 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.70 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Timken Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Timken Company (TKR) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.50 to $3.80 per share, excluding items of $0.35 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.63 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Zimmer Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) said it expects 2014 earnings of $6.10 to $6.30 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $6.18 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

L-3 Communications Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:19 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) said it expects 2014 earnings of $8.15 to $8.35 per share on revenue of $11.90 billion to $12.10 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $8.18 per share on revenue of $12.01 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

SunCoke Energy Guides In-line for 2014
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:18 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.35 to $0.60 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Abiomed Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:17 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Abiomed, Inc. (ABMD) said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 revenue of $180.0 million to $185.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $183.6 million for the year ending March 31, 2014.

Bemis Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:17 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Bemis Co., Inc. (BMS) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.55 to $0.60 per share and 2014 earnings of $2.40 to $2.55 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and $2.44 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Carbonite Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:16 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Carbonite, Inc. (CARB) said it expects a first quarter non-GAAP loss of $0.05 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $28.3 million to $28.7 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $29.4 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects a 2014 loss of $0.16 to $0.10 per share on revenue of $120.8 million to $122.8 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.16 per share on revenue of $126.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Hershey Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:15 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Hershey Company (HSY) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.05 to $4.13 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.11 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Pitney Bowes Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:10 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Pitney Bowes, Inc. (PBI) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.75 to $1.90 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.81 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

XCEL Energy Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:09 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

XCEL Energy, Inc. (XEL) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $1.90 to $2.05 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

DuPont Fabros Technology Guides FFO In-line for the Year, but Sees First Quarter Above Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

DuPont Fabros Technology, Inc. (DFT) said it expects first quarter funds from operations of $0.56 to $0.58 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $0.55 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $2.28 to $2.38 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $2.30 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Altria Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:59:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Altria Group Inc (MO) said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.51 to $2.58 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.57 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Wi-LAN Provides Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:30:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Wi-LAN Inc. (WILN) said it expects first quarter revenue to be at least $22.6 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $23.0 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Applied Industrial Technologies Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 earnings of $2.65 to $2.95 per share on revenue of $2.43 billion to $2.49 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.76 per share on revenue of $2.48 billion for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Eli Lilly Reaffirms
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:30:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $2.77 to $2.85 per share on revenue of $19.20 billion to $19.80 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.82 per share on revenue of $19.55 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Destination Maternity Lowers Guidance, but Remains In-line with Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Destination Maternity Corporation (DEST) said it expects second quarter earnings of $0.37 to $0.42 per share on revenue of $131.0 million to $134.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $999.00 per share on revenue of $140.0 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $1.72 to $1.90 per share on revenue of $539.0 million to $550.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $1.77 to $1.94 per share on revenue of $545.0 million to $560.0 million and the current consensus earnings estimate is $1.86 per share on revenue of $556.4 million for the year ending September 30, 2014.

Whirlpool Guides In-line
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) said it expects 2014 earnings of $12.00 to $12.50 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $12.12 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

B/E Aerospace Reaffirms Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 2:00:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

B/E Aerospace Inc. (BEAV) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of approximately $4.25 per share on revenue of approximately $4.00 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.35 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Negative Guidance
Boyd Gaming Revises Guidance to be In-line with the Earnings Whisper number
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:40:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD) said it now expects a fourth quarter loss of $0.27 to $0.21 per share. The company’s previous guidance was a loss of $0.20 to $0.15 per share and the Earnings Whisper number was a loss of $0.25 per share. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.16 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2013.

Silicon Image Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:32:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Silicon Image Inc. (SIMG) said it expects first quarter revenue of $58.0 million to $62.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $62.4 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

State Auto Financial Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:30:09 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

State Auto Financial Corp. (STFC) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.38 to $0.41 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.48 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2013.

West Sees Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:15:18 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

West Corp. (WSTC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.72 to $2.89 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion to $2.755 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.90 per share on revenue of $2.74 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Ikanos Communications Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:10:39 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Ikanos Communications Inc. (IKAN) said it expects a first quarter non-GAAP loss of $0.10 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.0 million to $16.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $18.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

McKesson Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:10:12 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

McKesson Corp. (MCK) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $8.05 to $8.20 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $8.40 to $8.70 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $8.63 per share for the year ending March 31, 2014.

GSI Technology Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:49 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

GSI Technology (GSIT) said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $12.5 million to $13.5 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $14.6 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

ScanSource Guides Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:15 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC) said it expects third quarter earnings of $0.53 to $0.55 per share on revenue of $700.0 million to $720.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $709.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Hanger Orthopedic Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:05:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Hanger Orthopedic Group, Inc. (HGR) said it expects 2013 earnings of $1.94 to $1.96 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $2.08 to $2.11 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share for the year ending December 31, 2013.

DFC Global Lowers Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:08 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

DFC Global Corp. (DLLR) said it now expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $0.35 to $0.80 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $0.65 to $1.27 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Chubb Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:01:00 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Chubb Corporation (CB) said it expects 2014 earnings of $7.10 to $7.40 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $7.42 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Align Technology Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 4:00:44 PM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.32 to $0.34 per share on revenue of $175.2 million to $179.6 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $174.7 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Kronos Worldwide Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:01:40 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Kronos Worldwide Inc. (KRO) said it expects fourth quarter revenue of approximately $368.6 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $379.4 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2013.

Kennametal Lowers Guidance
Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Kennametal Inc. (KMT) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $2.60 to $2.75 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $2.90 to $3.10 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $2.97 per share for the year ending June 30, 2014.

Brunswick Sees 2014 Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:39:31 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Brunswick Corp. (BC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.40 to $2.55 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.61 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Airgas Sees Fourth Quarter Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:11 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Airgas, Inc. (ARG) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $1.18 to $1.23 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.36 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

TECO Energy Guides Below 2014 Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:30:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

TECO Energy Inc. (TE) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.95 to $1.05 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Weatherford Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:21:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.05 to $0.08 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.26 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. The company said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.10 to $1.20 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.25 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

hhgregg Guides Lower
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:16 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

hhgregg Inc. (HGG) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $0.30 to $0.40 per share. The company previously said it expected earnings to be materially below its earlier guidance range of $0.75 to $0.90 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share for the year ending March 31, 2014.

Quest Diagnostics Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Quest Diagnostics, Inc. (DGX) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.90 to $4.10 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.20 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Dover Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Dover Corp. (DOV) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.60 to $4.80 per share, excluding Knowles. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.98 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Raytheon Sees 2014 Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Raytheon Co. (RTN) said it expects 2014 earnings of $5.76 to $5.91 per share on revenue of $22.5 billion to $23.0 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $6.31 per share on revenue of $23.07 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Sherwin-Williams Guides Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 7:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.95 to $1.15 per share and 2014 earnings of $8.12 to $8.32 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.28 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and $9.18 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

MEDNAX Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:08 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

MEDNAX, Inc. (MD) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.60 to $0.63 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Potash Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.30 to $0.35 per share and 2014 earnings of $1.40 to $1.80 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and $2.01 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

WESCO Sees 2014 Below Estimates
Thursday, January 30, 2014 6:00:00 AM ET
View: Complete Article | Historical Guidance

WESCO International Inc. (WCC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $5.30 to $5.70 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.92 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Fatti ed Effetti by Websim 30/01/2014

FATTO

Generali (G.MI) ha presentato un nuovo fondo focalizzato sul Sud-Europa, si chiama Gis European Recovery Equity, il soggetto sarà focalizzato su investimenti azionari su medie aziende quotate in Italia, Grecia, Portogallo e Spagna. Il fondo sarà aperto ad investitori istituzionali.

EFFETTO
Notizia positiva in quanto manifesta un ritorno di fiducia da parte del gruppo assicurativo nella ripresa del Sud Europa. Generali mostra di voler puntare su attivi con un alto rendimento, una
diversificazione dai soliti bond governativi.
Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE con target price a 18,50 euro.

FATTO
Ieri Agusta Westland, la controllata di Finmeccanica (FNC.MI) che produce elicotteri, si è aggiudicata un ordine da 910 milioni di euro da parte del ministero della Difesa inglese.
Questa commessa attutisce l’impatto negativo della possibile cancellazione dell’ordine per 12 elicotteri da parte dell’esercito indiano. La commessa è finita sotto i riflettori del governo di Mumbai per supposte tangenti.

L’eventuale cancellazione dell’ordine indiano potrebbe avere un impatto negativo di 300 milioni di euro sul bilancio del 2013 di Finmeccanica.

EFFETTO
L’eventuale inclusione nel 2013 degli accantonamenti derivanti dalla cancellazione dell’ordine (nostra stima circa 250 milioni) avrebbe un impatto negativo sui risultati ma permetterebbe alla società di organizzare il budget per il 2014/2015 senza pensieri.

FATTO
Marco Tronchetti Provera, presidente di Pirelli (PC.MI), ha diffuso ieri sera un comunicato per smentire le indiscrezioni del Financial Times su una trattativa riguardante un’eventuale offerta in arrivo dal fondo di private equity di Goldman Sachs.

La versione online del quotidiano inglese, nella rubrica Alphaville nella quale si parla di mercati, ha scritto ieri che per Pirelli si prepara un cambio degli assetti proprietari, prima passo verso l’arrivo di un’Opa che punta a rimuovere la società dal listino.

EFFETTO
Noi pensiamo che in futuro la società possa essere oggetto di interesse da parte di fondi di private equity e da altri operatori industriali del settore. Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE con target price a 13,50 euro.

FATTO
Tod’s (TOD.MI) ha chiuso il 2013 con un fatturato a 967,5 milioni, inferiore alla nostra stima di 987,6 milioni di euro. Sui conti pesa il rallentamento delle vendite in Cina, con un contributo dall’Italia che si conferma debole.

I risultati dell’anno, sottolinea una nota, sono stati influenzati dall’impatto sfavorevole delle valute. A cambi costanti i ricavi si sarebbero attestati a 979,2 milioni, con un incremento dell’1,7% rispetto all’anno precedente.

EFFETTO

Tagliamo le nostre stime di utili di Tod’s per il 2013 del 7,8 % e per il 2014 dell’11% per tener conto di margini più bassi attesi.

Confermiamo la nostra visione NEUTRALE sul titolo e portiamo il target a 105 da 120 per tener conto delle minori stime. Ci aspettiamo un confronto difficile con il 2013 specialmente nella prima parte dell’anno.

FATTO
Secondo quanto riportato dal Sole 24 Ore, Andrea Merloni, fglio di Vittorio Merloni, ha lasciato la presidenza di Fineldo e al suo posto è stato nominato il fratello gemello Aristide (lo stesso nome del nonno, il fondatore del gruppo). Fineldo è la holding della famiglia Merloni a cui fa capo il controllo di Indesit (IND.MI).

Prima di Natale Aristide era già stato nominato tutore del padre, che ancora oggi, nonostante la grave malattia che lo affligge, è titolare della maggioranza delle azioni di Finelo. Secondo Il Sole 24 Ore, l’avvicendamento è il segnale che nella famiglia ha prevalso la posizione di Aristide, favorevole alla ricerca di un partner per Indesit.

Ieri, l’a.d. Marco Milani, ha affermato che il piano industriale per Indesit stand-alone approvato lo scorso ottobre potrebbe essere presentato al mercato nei prossimi mesi.

EFFETTO
Confermiamo il nostro giudizio MOLTO INTERESSANTE sul titolo, basato su motivazioni speculative. Il nostro target price è di 11 euro.

Il nostro target price è calcolato come media tra una valutazione sui fondamentali (7,7 euro per azione), pesata al 50%, e una valutazione che riflette lo scenario di aggregazione.
Secondo noi il partner più probabile (25% di chance) è Electrolux e in questo caso vediamo un possibile prezzo di 13 euro per azione. Diamo il 10% di possibilità a Whirlpool (11 euro per azione) e il 15% alla cinese Haier, che secondo noi potrebbe arrivare a pagare 17 euro per azione.

FATTO
Il quotidiano MF riporta che il governo è al lavoro su un provvedimento per uniformare la tassa sul rumore provocato dai motori degli aerei, che oggi pesa in maniera diversa da regione a regione ed è particolarmente gravosa nel Lazio, dove sorge l’aeroporto di Roma Fiumicino.
Secondo indiscrezioni, questa manovra sarebbe tra le richieste di Ethiad per l’ingresso nel capitale di Alitalia.

EFFETTO
Dopo le notizie di ieri sulla riduzione da parte di Enav delle tariffe di assistenza al volo sulle operazioni di aeroporto, la manovra sulla tassa sulle emissioni sonore dovrebbe ulteriormente facilitare
l’accordo con Ethiad.
Si tratta di una notizia positiva per Aeroporti di Roma, società controllata da Atlantia (ATL.MI).

Confermiamo la raccomandazione NEUTRALE con target price a 19 euro.

FATTO
I risultati del quarto trimestre 2013 di Ansaldo STS (STS.MI)hanno mostrato ricavi pari a 390 milioni di euro (-5% rispetto alle nostre stime), Ebit pari a 40 milioni (in linea con le attese) e una posizione finanziaria netta positiva per 260 milioni (257 la nostra stima).

EFFETTO
I risultati sono complessivamente in linea con le attese.

Confermiamo la raccomandazione MOLTO INTERESSANTE con target price a 9 euro.

FATTO
Antonio Catricalà, viceministro dello Sviluppo economico, ha annunciato ieri che il governo potrebbe pubblicare la prossima settimana il bando per l’asta per le frequenze del digitale. L’asta prevede tre multiplex. Rai, Mediaset (MS.MI) e Telecom Italia non potranno partecipare, come annunciato in precedenza. Non c’è chiarezza sulla tempistica dell’asta, forse avverrà entro l’anno.

EFFETTO
L’asta è slittata più volte, qualora finalmente partisse e ci fosse interesse per i Multiplex, Ei Towers (EIT.MI) è il naturale candidato ad aggiudicarsi almeno uno dei tre contratti per ospitare i nuovi Multiplex sulle sue torri. Un contratto a servizio pieno porterebbe un incremento dell’Ebitda del gruppo di circa 12 milioni di euro all’anno.

Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE sul titolo con un target di 37,5 euro.

FATTO
Il segretario generale della Compagnia Sanpaolo, primo azionista di Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) con il 9,8%, si è detto ottimista sul dividendo relativo al 2013 che si aspetta invariato rispetto all’anno precedente (0,05 euro per azione).

Ieri Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI) ha emesso un covered bond a 12 anni (1,25 miliardi di euro) ad un tasso del 3,25%, ovvero con uno spread di 108 punti base sul midswap. Buone le richieste degli investitori pari a quasi 2 volte l’offerta.

EFFETTO
Le attese della Compagnia Sanapolo sono in linea con le nostre stime di dividendo 2013 (0,05 euro per azione).

Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE con target price a 2,45 euro.

FATTO
Secondo il quotidiano MF, il direttore di El Mundo, Pedro Ramirez, potrebbe lasciare l’incarico già nelle prossime ore. La ragione risiede nelle forti divergenze con il governo di Mariano Rajoy. Oggi sarebbe in programma un Cda di Unidad Editorial.

EFFETTO
Notizia negativa per Rcs Mediagroup (RCS.MI), anche se da confermare. Unidad Editorial rappresenta un asset core del
gruppo che, secondo Milano Finanza, non sta performando secondo le aspettative del management.

La raccomandazione è NEUTRALE con target price a 1,50 euro.

FATTO
South Stream Transport ha assegnato ieri a Europipe, Omk e Severstal i contratti per la fornitura dei tubi del gasdotto sottomarino dalla Russia alla Bulgaria. I contratti hanno un valore complessivo di circa 1 miliardo e prevedono la fornitura da parte di tre società di oltre 75.000 tubi d’acciaio per la prima linea del gasdotto. I contratti per la fornitura dei tubi della seconda linea potrebbero essere assegnati entro marzo.

EFFETTO
L’assegnazione dei contratti per la fornitura dei tubi aumenta la visibilità sul contratto per la posa del gasdotto sotto il Mar Nero, che vede Saipem (SPM.MI) in pole position. Il valore atteso della commessa è di 1,5 miliardi di dollari per la prima linea (fino a 3 miliardi nel caso di raddoppio).

Confermiamo la raccomandazione NEUTRALE con target price a 16 euro.

FATTO
Tod’s (TOD.MI) crolla oggi in ribasso del 5% a 103,8 euro, tornando sui valori dello scorso aprile.

Da inizio 2014 il calo sfiora il 14%, mentre il 2013 si è chiuso con un guadagno del 27%.

EFFETTO
La pesante caduta dai massimi storici segnati a 145,5 eu (-28%) ha portato le quotazioni a ridosso della fortissima fascia di supporto in area 105/98 euro.

Il commento nella rubrica Fatti & Effetti del 15 gennaio scorso aveva allertato sui rischi di ulteriori scivoloni. Con il movimento odierno, a nostro avviso si completa, la fase ribassista che potrebbe lasciare spazio ad una fase di assestamento/recupero.

Al rialzo, le prime resistenze degne di nota sono verso 115/120 euro.

TOD’S

FATTO
Secondo il Sole24Ore, l’imprenditore egiziano Naguib Sawiris, che ha recentemente affermato di essere interessato a investire in Telecom Italia (TIT.MI), punterebbe a un’espansione in Brasile. In particolare, l’idea di Sawiris sarebbe di aggregare Tim Brasil con l’altro operatore mobile brasiliano GVT, posseduto da Vivendi, ipotesi già proposta in precedenza.

Il governo italiano, per bocca del viceministro Antonio Catricalà, ha dichiarato che Sawiris è il benvenuto, se apporta risorse in Telecom Italia.

Secondo MF, invece, continuano i tentativi di Telefonica di mettere insieme un’ offerta per Tim Brasil , che andrebbe poi divisa tra gli altri operatori mobili brasiliani.

EFFETTO
Posto che sono solo illazioni, è difficile se non impossibile valutare che impatto potrebbero avere sulle quotazioni i piani di Sawiris.

Il progetto di Sawiris, se esiste, sarebbe in contrasto con le idee di Telefonica, che invece punta a cedere Tim Brasil. Telefonica è tuttora il primo azionista di Telecom Italia.

Inviato SMS Alert prima dell’apertura

Confermiamo la raccomandazione NEUTRALE con target price a 0,75 euro.

FATTO
Mediaset (MS.MI) dovrebbe aver chiuso il 2013 con un calo della pubblicità intorno all’11%, in linea con le aspettative del consensus degli analisti. Le indicazioni sullo scorso esercizio sono fornite da Stefano Sala, l’amministratore delegato di Publitalia 80, la concessionaria pubblicitaria del gruppo, in un’intervista al Sole24Ore.

Sala si aspetta nel 2014 un lieve miglioramento: in Italia la raccolta pubblicitaria sulle televisioni dovrebbe allinearsi almeno sui valori del 2013. Mediaset Premium, la pay tv del gruppo, dovrebbe invece registrare una crescita del 5%.

Il manager spiega che Mediaset ha deciso di non abbassare i prezzi medi degli spot e preferisce lasciare gli spazi televisivi invenduti piuttosto che concedere forti sconti.
Infine, nell’articolo si legge che Mediamond, la joint venture con Mondadori, cresce del +30% in un mercato in leggero calo.

EFFETTO
Le indicazioni di Sala sul 2013 sono leggermente inferiori alle nostre, la previsione del manager implica per il quarto trimestre un calo del 6,5%, noi invece pensiamo che la discesa sia del 5,4%. Siamo allineati con Sala per quanto riguarda il 2014, noi stimiamo un incremento anno su anno del 4,5%.
Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE con target price a 2,80 euro.

FATTO
Ania, Associazione nazionale tra imprese assicuratrici, ha registrato un calo delle tariffe Rc Auto in tutto il 2013 del 4,5% con una riduzione maggiore a fine anno: dicembre -6%.

Secondo i calcoli dell’Ania, il prezzo medio delle polizze italiane (al netto della tassazione) sarebbe sceso da 456 euro a 436.

EFFETTO
Il calo era atteso, a causa sia della crisi economica che ha portato a una minore domanda di polizze, sia della straordinaria marginalità derivata dalla riduzione del traffico e quindi degli incidenti, che ha portato le compagnie italiane a una maggiore competizione. In termini assoluti, ci attendavamo per il 2013 un calo dei premi Auto del 5%.

FATTO
Secondo Il Sole 24Ore, il progetto di integrazione sui multiplex fra Telecom Italia Media (TME.MI) e L’Espresso (ES.MI) potrebbe essere annunciato a breve.

Il quotidiano aggiunge che una volta conclusa l’integrazione partirebbe la fase due che prevede l’apertura del capitale della nuova società ad un investitore istituzionale. In corsa ci sarebbero F2i e Clessidra ma anche qualche private equity straniero.

EFFETTO
Secondo il quotidiano la nuova società che integrerà i multiplex avrà un valore di 300 milioni di euro e il 30% del nuovo gruppo sarà in capo a L’Espresso.

Una cessione a questi prezzi, poco sotto la nostra valutazione,
consentirebbe a l’Espresso di valorizzare i propri Multiplex che ora il mercato prezza a forte sconto.

Confermiamo la raccomandazione INTERESSANTE con target price a 1,70 euro.

FATTO
Geox (GEO.MI) guadagna il 3,6% a 2,97 euro e allunga al rialzo mentre tutto il settore del Lusso/Made in Italy soffre dopo la delusione dei conti di Tod’s (oggi -7%).

Da inizio anno il titolo guadagna l’11%. Il 2013 si è chiuso con una performance positiva del 21%, tutta accumulata negli ultimi due mesi.

EFFETTO
Graficamente, le ultime due settimane hanno consentito di scaricare gli eccessi accumulati nell’ultimo trimestre e di completare un movimento di pull-back sull’importante spartiacque verso 2,80 euro, nostra area d’ingresso.

La pausa è servita per comprare sulla debolezza in vista di un ritorno verso i massimi di periodo. Primi segnali di ripresa della tendenza si vedranno con il ritorno sopra i top di inizio gennaio a 3,20 euro. Il nostro target di breve è posto verso 3,40 euro. Stop loss sotto 2,70 euro.

Rimandiamo alla scheda di Analisi Tecnica per ulteriori dettagli.

GEOX

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 30/01/2014

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, January 30, 2014

Summary
The Dow Future has gained 50 points to 15748. The US Dollar Index rose 0.322 points to 80.893. Gold is declining 7.59 dollars to 1255.10. Silver is dropping 0.168 dollars to 19.397. The Dow Industrials dropped 189.77 points, at 15738.79, while the S&P 500 declined 18.30 points, last seen at 1774.20. The Nasdaq Composite moved lower 45.07 points to 4052.89. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
In-Depth Analysis: Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL)
Wednesday Jan 29th

How To Profit From The Polar Vortex
Wednesday Jan 29th

My 10 Golden Rules of Trading
Tuesday Jan 28th

Key Events for Thursday

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

Market Composite Index (previous 404.1)

Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous +4.7%)

Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 184.8)

Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -3.6%)

Refinance Index (previous 1682.1)

Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +9.9%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 351.22M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.99M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 235.27M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.12M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 120.74M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -3.21M)

Refinery Usage (previous 86.5%)

Total Products Supplied (previous 18.96M)

Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.1M)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

Federal Funds Rate (Dir) (previous +0)

Discount Rate

Discount Rate Change

FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)

FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 1)

High Range Value (Current Period)

Low Range Value

Federal Funds Rate Change High Range (previous 0.25)

Federal Funds Rate Change Low Range (previous

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 693.2K)

Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 1673.2K)

Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 413.4K)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 330K; previous 326K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +1K)

Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3056000)

Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +34K)

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP

GDP (expected +3.2%; previous +4.1%)

Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +1.3%; previous +2%)

PCE Price index (previous +1.9%)

Purchase Price Index (previous +1.8%)

Real Final Sales (previous +2.5%)

Core PCE Price index (Ex Food/Energy) (previous +1.4%)

Personal Consumption (previous +2%)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. Dec Pending Home Sales Index

Current (previous 101.7)

MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (expected -0.8%; previous +0.2%)

YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous -1.6%)

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.5%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2423B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous -107B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Currencies Snapshot
US DOLLAR INDEX	80.893	+0.322	+0.41%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX	21.6300	0.0000	0.00%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar	1.11815	+0.00002	0.00%
Euro/US Dollar	1.359165	-0.006015	-0.44%
JAPANESE YEN Mar 2014	0.009768	-0.000036	-0.37%
SWISS FRANC Mar 2014	1.1118	-0.0067	-0.60%

CURRENCIES

CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed down 15 points at 1.3649 today. Prices closed near mid-range on more mild profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The March Japanese yen closed up 62 points at .9786 today. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a seven-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some upside momentum to suggest a major market low is in place.

The March Swiss franc closed up 27 points at 1.1171 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have the near- term technical advantage. A bull flag has formed on the daily bar chart.

The March Canadian dollar closed down 23 points at .8935 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh contract low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The March British pound closed down 26 points at 1.6547 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 0.013 at 80.670 today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Energy Snapshot
CRUDE OIL Mar 2014	97.84	+0.48	+0.49%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Mar 2014	3.0286	+0.0082	+0.27%
NATURAL GAS Mar 2014	5.218	-0.247	-4.52%
RBOB GASOLINE Mar 2014	2.6720	+0.0034	+0.13%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY	52.792	-0.120	-0.23%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE	57.0823	+0.5823	+1.02%

ENERGIES

ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed down $0.18 at $97.24 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Crude oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage.

March heating oil closed up 178 points at $3.0117 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 256 points at $2.6632 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The gasoline bears have the slight near-term technical advantage.

March natural gas closed up 44.8 cents at $5.388 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 28- month high today. Arctic air over much of the U.S. and short supplies on a near-term basis have boosted this market. Trading has become highly volatile at higher price levels, which is suggestive of a topping process.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Food Snapshot
COCOA Mar 2014	2903	-15	-0.51%
COFFEE Mar 2014	118.95	+1.85	+1.58%
ORANGE JUICE-A Mar 2014	138.00	-0.20	-0.14%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST	49.4601	-1.1099	-2.24%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST	42.80	-0.12	-0.29%

FOOD & FIBER

SOFTS: March sugar closed down 23 points at 14.79 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a fresh contract low close today. Sugar bears have the strong near-term technical advantage. A 3.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. There are still no early technical clues of a market bottom being close at hand.

March coffee closed up 275 points at 117.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The coffee bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart-but now just barely.

March cocoa closed up $16 at $2,921 a ton today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh contract high close today. Worries about tight world cocoa supplies amid rising demand are a bullish tonic for this market. Cocoa bulls have good upside momentum and have the solid near-term technical advantage.

March cotton closed up 120 points at 85.55 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range on a corrective bounce from Monday’s big down day. Cotton bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month- old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

March orange juice closed down 20 points at $1.3850 today. Prices closed near the session high. The bulls have faded and are on a level near-term technical playing field with the bears.

March lumber futures closed up $0.30 at $351.50 today. Prices are near a six-week low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $347.80.

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Symbol	Last	Change	%
Grains Snapshot
CORN Mar 2014	428.50	+1.00	+0.23%
OATS Mar 2014	415.50	-5.75	-1.36%
WHEAT Mar 2014	555.25	+3.75	+0.68%
TEUCRIUM CORN	30.5529	-0.2871	-0.94%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST	42.19	-0.66	-1.56%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST	5.6532	+0.0232	+0.41%
SOYBEANS Mar 2014	1265.25	-4.00	-0.32%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Mar 2014	1266.875	-2.375	-0.19%
SOYBEAN MEAL Mar 2014	420.2	-3.1	-0.73%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN	22.3700	-0.1500	-0.67%

GRAINS

GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 4 1/2 cents at $4.27 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. A lack of fresh, bullish fundamental news is allowing corn prices to continue to drift sideways at lower price levels. Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

March soybeans closed down 16 1/4 cents at $12.69 1/4 a bushel Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and were pressured on worries about more Chinese cancellations of previously purchased U.S. soybeans. Soybean bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are fading and now prices are close to solid resistance at the January low.

March soybean meal closed down $5.30 at $423.30 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls have the near- term technical advantage. A bullish ascending triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

March bean oil closed down 30 points at 37.10 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low. The bean oil bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 14 1/2 cents at $5.51 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit another contract low. The wheat bears have the solid near- term technical advantage. There are no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand, which means this market could continue to drift lower in the coming weeks.

March HRW wheat closed down 13 1/4 cents at $6.08 3/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low. The HRW wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Indexes Snapshot
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS	15738.79	-189.77	-1.21%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED)	4052.89	-45.07	-1.11%
S&P 500 CASH	1774.20	-18.30	-1.03%
SPDR S&P 500	177.305	-1.765	-1.00%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX	16.22	+1.24	+7.67%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX	111.41	-1.56	-1.40%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed lower again today on more profit taking. Bulls are fading quickly. Wednesday afternoon’s U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on its monetary policy showed the Fed did another $10 billion per month tapering of its quantitative easing, now at $65 billion in month in bond-buying. That was the general belief in the market place, albeit not a clear consensus. The FOMC statement also reiterated that U.S. interest rates will remain extremely low. A CNBC survey of 45 economists released Tuesday saw the vast majority expecting the Fed to continue to taper its monetary policy. At this week’s FOMC meeting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also handed over to Janet Yellen the reins of the U.S. central bank. The major news of the day came from Turkey, as its central bank raised its key lending rate sharply, up to 12%, to try to stave off the deflating Turkish lira. The move by Turkey’s central bank acted to calm the market place for just a few hours, as the U.S. stock market fell under pressure by mid-morning U.S. trading. India’s central bank also raised its interest rates this earlier week. The South African central bank raised its interest rates on Wednesday, following Turkey’s move. World stock and financial markets are jittery amid worries about some non-major world currencies being stressed. Recent weaker Chinese economic data and concern about the U.S. Federal Reserve reeling in its very easy monetary policy are credited with pressuring several secondary world currencies in recent trading sessions. The main fear is the potential for a lack of financial market liquidity in the emerging nations, if the world’s major central banks start to turn off their easy-money spigots that have allowed the world markets to be awash in cash the past five years. History shows that problems with smaller currency markets can spread to the majors and create a worldwide contagion. This is what has the gold market supported by safe-haven demand. For the raw commodity market bulls, including the precious metals bulls, their fate still lies with the health of the U.S. and world stock markets. If the heretofore high-flying world stock indexes continue to show weakness, as has been the case just recently, then money flows will move from equities to the “hard assets” that include raw commodities. The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday is approaching later this week, whereby the world’s largest nation and second-largest economy mostly shuts down for several days. Most Asian markets could see subdued trading action during the Chinese holiday.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Interest Snapshot
T-BONDS Mar 2014	133.25000	-0.25000	-0.19%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE	50.665	-0.015	-0.03%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014	120.359375	-0.195313	-0.16%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2014	143.53125	-0.31250	-0.22%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF	24.895	+0.015	+0.06%

INTEREST RATES

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 25/32 at 133 13/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-month high today. Prices also scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bond market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. Prices are in a steep four- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Livestock Snapshot
FEEDER CATTLE Mar 2014	168.750	-0.475	-0.28%
LEAN HOGS Apr 2014	93.975	+0.175	+0.19%
LIVE CATTLE Apr 2014	140.150	-0.375	-0.27%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB	28.2960	+0.0460	+0.16%

LIVESTOCK

LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.17 at $140.52 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Price action last week produced a spike top and then prices backed off sharply. If there is some more selling pressure late this week, then a major market top could be in place. But right now the live cattle futures bulls are still in technical control. A 2.5-month-old uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $169.22 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

April lean hogs closed up $0.22 at $93.80 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. The hog market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Symbol	Last	Change	%
Metals Snapshot
GOLD Apr 2014	1256.3	-5.9	-0.47%
SPDR GOLD SHARES	122.46	+1.51	+1.23%
SILVER Mar 2014	19.410	-0.142	-0.72%
PALLADIUM Mar 2014	715.00	+3.85	+0.54%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA	28.25	-2.49	-8.87%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS	40.8400	+0.2800	+0.68%

PRECIOUS METALS

METALS: April gold futures closed up $13.10 an ounce at $1,263.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on safe-haven demand, short covering and bargain hunting. The gold bulls have some upside technical momentum to suggest that a market low is in place. However, they need to show more power soon to keep their momentum. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

March silver futures closed up $0.142 an ounce at $19.65 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering and bargain hunting. Silver bears still have the overall near- term technical advantage. However, trading has been choppy and sideways for the past four weeks, to suggest some “basing” action that does put in market bottoms.

March N.Y. copper closed down 140 points at 324.00 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another six-week low today. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

Top Stocks

symbol

name

last

net

volume

score

triangles

VRNG

VRINGO

4.79

+0.82

+17.12%

45,829,901

+90

Entry Signal

DOW

DOW CHEMICAL

44.735

+1.675

+3.74%

30,354,261

+90

Entry Signal

FSL

FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTOR

17.545

+2.245

+12.79%

11,737,333

+90

Entry Signal

DHI

DR HORTON

23.1201

+0.1201

+0.52%

11,415,467

+100

Entry Signal

TEVA

TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS

45.00

+0.90

+2.00%

10,820,226

+100

Entry Signal

AALCP

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC S

26.60

+0.15

+0.56%

10,062,649

+100

Entry Signal

HZNP

HORIZON PHARMA

10.05

+1.55

+15.42%

9,564,110

+100

Entry Signal

COG

CABOT OIL & GAS

40.46

+0.09

+0.22%

6,294,149

+100

Entry Signal

VONAGE HOLDINGS

4.80

+0.23

+4.80%

6,036,606

+100

Entry Signal

10.

SWN

SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY

41.81

+0.24

+0.57%

5,355,814

+100

Entry Signal

Top Futures

symbol

name

last

net

volume

score

triangles

TY.H14

10 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014

125.625000

+0.546875

+0.44%

1,982,503

+100

Entry Signal

ZT.H14.E

2 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014

110.054688

-0.015625

-0.01%

24,808

+100

Entry Signal

NG.G14

NATURAL GAS Feb 2014

5.557

+0.524

+9.26%

17,604

+100

Entry Signal

NG.J14.E

NATURAL GAS Apr 2014

4.461

-0.100

-2.22%

5,376

+100

Entry Signal

ED.H19

EURODOLLAR Mar 2019

96.17

+0.10

+0.10%

4,100

+100

Entry Signal

ED.Z19

EURODOLLAR Dec 2019

95.845

+0.095

+0.10%

2,818

+100

Entry Signal

ED.U19

EURODOLLAR Sep 2019

95.945

+0.095

+0.10%

2,141

+100

Entry Signal

NG.G15.E

NATURAL GAS Feb 2015

4.662

+0.129

+2.80%

1,356

+100

Entry Signal

NN.N14

HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS FINCL Jul 2014

4.478

+0.123

+2.79%

1,302

+100

Entry Signal

10.

HH.H14.E

HENRY HUB FINANCIAL LAST DAY Mar 2014

5.465

+0.519

+9.50%

1,000

+100

Entry Signal

Stop Kidding Yourself! – 01/30/2014 (great truth)

Here is the false equation being made by too many investors.

Fed expanded taper = stocks went down

However, stocks were already in the tank Wednesday before the FOMC announcement. In fact, they are now down for 4 of the last 5 sessions. So obviously the cause is elsewhere… which I will simplify as follows.

The market is now down because everyone expected it go up in January.

Yes, when everyone is onboard, and of the same mind, then there are not enough new buyers for a while which causes downside pressure. As the pullback gains steam and more folks panic, it then creates the next buying opportunity.

That is why it is often said the market “slides down a slope of hope” and “climbs a wall of worry”. Meaning it often does th e opposite of what is commonly believed by investors. So as perception becomes more bearish, then likely the time to buy. (If you are looking for an easy and logical place to make money, then stock investing is probably not for you 😉

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

Pelias' views

An indipendent look to finance, economics & the markets

Mese: gennaio 2014

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 31/01/2014

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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 30/01/2014

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ENERGIES

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Stop Kidding Yourself! – 01/30/2014 (great truth)

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