M O N D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 11, 2013
1:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speech at the AFL-CIO
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
7:30 AM ET. Jan NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Optimism Index (previous 88)
7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +2.4%)
Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +2.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
MoM % Change (previous -0.6%)
12MonChgPct (previous +1.8%)
52WkChgPct (previous +1.5%)
10:00 AM ET. Dec Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
2:00 PM ET. Jan Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.63M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.56M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.45M)
Refinery Runs (previous 85.2%)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that
sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the
late-December low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at crossing at 2804.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the
reaction low crossing at 2698.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at crossing at
2780.75. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 2804.15. First support is the reaction
low crossing at 2698.50. Second support is the January 2nd gap crossing at
2665.00.
The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at
1526.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1492.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1516.80. Second resistance is
weekly resistance crossing at 1526.50. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1492.67. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
1457.00.
______________________________
past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 144-12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If March renews this winter’s decline, weekly support crossing at 139-14 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
144-12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-17. First
support is last Monday’s low crossing at 142-05. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 139-14.ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
March crude oil was lower overnight and poised to renew the decline off this
month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned
decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at
93.47 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November’s
low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at
99.78 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing
at 98.24. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 99.78. First support is last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 93.47.
March heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low,
last March’s high crossing at 331.32 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.44 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 325.75.
Second resistance is last March’s high crossing at 331.32. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 316.85. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 310.44.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight while extending the trading range of
the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning
neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.49 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter’s rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 308.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Thursday’s high crossing at 306.98. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 308.23. First support is the reaction low crossing at 298.25.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.49.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off
last Wednesday’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the
decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 3.100 is the next
downside target. If March resumes the rally off the late-January low, January’s
high crossing at 3.646 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.459. Second resistance is January’s high
crossing at 3.646. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.232. Second
support is January’s low crossing at 3.100.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month’s rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, January’s
high crossing at 80.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 79.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.42.
Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 80.99. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 79.71. Second support is this month’s low
crossing at 78.91.
The March Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends last week’s
decline, the reaction low crossing at 132.62 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.10 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 135.10. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 137.15.
First support is the overnight low crossing at 133.60. Second resistance is the
reaction low crossing at 132.62.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last
week’s short covering bounce. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5816 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January’s high,
the 75% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 1.5598 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5816. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5874. First
support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1.5627. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 1.5598.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight and is poised to extend last
week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10863 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
March renews this winter’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11119 is the
next upside target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at .11080.
Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11119. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at .10863. Second support is January’s low
crossing at .10657.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last Friday’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January’s
high, the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 98.35 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.20 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.20. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 100.85. First support is January’s low crossing at 98.89.
Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 98.35.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and remains poised to extend this
winter’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off September’s high, monthly support crossing at .10532 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10991 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10815. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10991. First support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at .10633. Second support is monthly support crossing
at .10532.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold was sharply lower overnight and poised to renew the decline off
January’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If April renews the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at
1627.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off the
late-January low, the October-November downtrend line crossing near 1689.30 is
the next upside target. First resistance is the October-November downtrend line
crossing near 1689.30. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 1699.90.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 1653.20. Second support is
January’s low crossing at 1627.90.
March silver was lower overnight and appears to be breaking to the downside
of a small symmetrical triangle, which has formed over the past month.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the reaction low
crossing at 30.745 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 32.485 are needed to renew the rally off January’s low. First
resistance is January’s high crossing at 32.365. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 32.600. First support is the reaction low crossing at
30.745. Second support is January’s low crossing at 29.240.
March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 370.38 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this
winter’s rally, October’s high crossing at 382.90 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 379.25. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 382.90. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 370.38. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 364.05.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidates some of the decline off January’s high. The high-range close set
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the
contract low crossing at 13.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 14.85 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted.
March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and
the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, January’s high crossing at 23.13
is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off September’s high,
the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 21.45 is the
next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this week’s decline. The
mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March renews this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.53 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral
to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.31 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter’s rally, the 62%
retracement level of the 2012-decline crossing at 86.50 is the next upside
target.
——————————
———————————————————————
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March corn was lower in overnight trading as it extends this month’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold
but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at
6.86 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.26. Second resistance is
this month’s high crossing at 7.46 1/4. First support is the overnight low
crossing at 7.05 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.86 1/4.
March wheat was lower overnight and the low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline,
January’s low crossing at 7.36 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.72 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 7.99 3/4. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January decline
crossing at 8.10 1/2. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.46
1/2. Second support is January’s low crossing at 7.36 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 7.99 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this week’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 7.89 3/4 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
8.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above
January’s high crossing at 8.47 are needed to renew the rally off January’s
low. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 8.47. Second resistance is
the 38% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.53.
First support is today’s low crossing at 7.99 1/4. Second support is January’s
low crossing at 7.89 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, January’s low crossing at
8.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.56 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.56 3/4. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 8.82 1/4. First support is the overnight low
crossing at 8.32 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 8.30.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower overnight and trading below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.52 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for steady to
lower prices when the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 14.52 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening
the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off
January’s low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January decline
crossing at 15.39 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the September-January decline crossing at 14.95 1/4.
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January decline
crossing at 15.39 3/4. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.52 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 14.15.
March soybean meal was lower overnight and trading below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 423.10 as it extends last Friday’s decline. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 423.10 would confirm a short-term top has
been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March
renews the rally off January’s low, the 50% retracement level of the
September-January decline crossing at 455.30 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 441.20. Second resistance is the
50% retracement level of the September-January decline crossing at 455.30.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 423.10. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 408.00.
March soybean oil was lower overnight and testing the December-January
uptrend line crossing near 50.80. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would open the door for
a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 49.12 later this month. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.30 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 51.96. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
52.30. First support is the December-January uptrend line crossing near 50.80.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 49.12.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.40 at $86.12.
April hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November’s
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April
extends this week’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the May-November
rally crossing at 84.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 88.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s gap crossing at 87.55. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.09. First support is
Thursday’s low crossing at 85.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement
level of the May-November rally crossing at 84.56.
April cattle closed down $1.40 at 130.12.
April cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this week’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April
extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing at 129.45 is the next
downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 133.65 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 132.05. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 133.65. First support is today’s low crossing at 129.90.
Second support is January’s low crossing at 129.45.
March feeder cattle closed down $2.20 at $145.00.
March Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Friday as it extends
this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing at 144.65 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 150.45. First support is today’s low crossing at
144.97. Second support is January’s low crossing at 144.65.
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________
Pelias' views 