Key Market Reports and Commentary for Wednesday 31/07/2013

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future is down 11 points to 15482. The US Dollar Index moved down 0.011 points to 81.831. Gold has advanced 0.34 dollars to 1332.74. Silver has climbed 0.032 dollars to 19.925. The Dow Industrials declined 1.38 points, at 15520.59, while the S&P 500 moved higher by 0.63 points, last seen at 1685.96. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 19.31 points to 3618.45. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
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Key Events for Wednesday

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

Market Composite Index (previous 513.3)

Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -1.2%)

Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 198.5)

Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -2.1%)

Refinance Index (previous 2336.2)

Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -0.7%)

8:15 AM ET. July ADP National Employment Report

Private Payrolls Forecast (expected +183000; previous +188000)

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index

ECI Qtlry (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)

ECI Yearly (previous +1.8%)

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance estimate GDP

GDP (expected +0.9%; previous +1.8%)

Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +1%; previous +1.2%)

PCE Price index (previous +1%)

Purchase Price Index (previous +1.2%)

Real Final Sales (previous +1.2%)

Core PCE Price index (Ex Food/Energy) (previous +1.3%)

Personal Consumption (previous +2.6%)

9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI

Employment Index (previous 57.8)

New Orders Index (previous 54.6)

Prices Paid Index (previous 59.9)

Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 53.5; previous 51.6)

Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 46.9)

10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 364.19M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.83M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 222.69M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.39M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 126.45M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.23M)

Refinery Usage (previous 92.3%)

Total Products Supplied (previous 19.79M)

Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.32M)

1:00 PM ET. July Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator

DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 54.9)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

Federal Funds Rate (Dir) (previous +0)

Discount Rate

Discount Rate Change

FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)

FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 2)

High Range Value (Current Period)

Low Range Value

Federal Funds Rate Change High Range (previous 0.25)

Federal Funds Rate Change Low Range (previous 0)

3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices

Farm Prices, M/M (previous +2%)


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
U.S $ INDEX 81.831 -0.011 -0.01%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 22.14 +0.04 +0.18%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.02928 -0.00057 -0.06%
Euro/US Dollar 1.32815 +0.00263 +0.20%
JAPANESE YEN Sep 2013 0.010237 +0.000027 +0.26%
SWISS FRANC Sep 2013 1.0773 +0.0007 +0.07%

CURRENCIES

September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.98. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 81.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15.

The September Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 133.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 133.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 133.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.91.

The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5304 signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5179 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5509 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5385. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5509. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5179. Second support is the July 11th gap crossing at 1.5009.

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the reaction high crossing at .10829 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10589 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .10800. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10829. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10589. Second support is the July 11th gap crossing at .10446.

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off July’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 97.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.00.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at .10669 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10031 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at .10245. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .10669. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10031. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9852.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Sep 2013 103.25 +0.17 +0.16%
NEW YORK HARBOR ULSD Sep 2013 2.9928 -0.0162 -0.54%
NATURAL GAS Sep 2013 3.440 +0.008 +0.23%
RBOB GASOLINE Sep 2013 2.9413 -0.0337 -1.14%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY 49.22 -0.27 -0.55%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 60.801 -0.180 -0.30%

ENERGIES

September crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.82 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today’s low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

September heating oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.39 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 297.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 305.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 305.37. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 313.22. First support is the reaction low crossing at 299.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 297.08.

September unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 321.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 309.17. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 321.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.11. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 290.90.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this decline off May’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January’s low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.656 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.656. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 3.833. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January’s low crossing at 3.350.

 


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Sep 2013 2287 0 0.00%
COFFEE Sep 2013 120.15 -0.15 -0.12%
ORANGE JUICE-A Sep 2013 145.60 -0.35 -0.24%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 58.7300 +1.3301 +2.25%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 46.9401 -0.3099 -0.66%

FOOD & FIBER

September coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 11.86 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 135.81 is the next upside target.

September cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 23.84 is the next upside target.

October sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off July’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

October cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last week’s low, the reaction high crossing at 87.82 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off June’s high, May’s low crossing at 81.83 is the next downside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Dec 2013 475.00 -2.50 -0.52%
OATS Dec 2013 330.00 -0.75 -0.23%
WHEAT Sep 2013 656.75 +1.50 +0.23%
TEUCRIUM CORN 36.0496 +0.0196 +0.05%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 46.242 +0.188 +0.41%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 6.2826 +0.0426 +0.68%
SOYBEANS Nov 2013 1205.25 +2.25 +0.19%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2013 1203.000 +5.375 +0.45%
SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2013 363.4 -0.5 -0.14%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 23.0396 -0.0004 -0.00%

GRAINS

Corn closed up 4 1/4-cents at 4.77 1/2.

December corn closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 4.67 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 1/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.67 3/4.

December wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 6.67 3/4.

December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, psychological support crossing at 6.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.05 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.58 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.50.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 7.08 1/4.

December Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 7.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.13 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.13 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.28. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 7.00 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 7.00.

December Minneapolis wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 7.48 1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 7.25 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.54 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.65. First support is today’s low crossing at 7.45 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 7.25 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

soybeans closed down 17-cents at 12.03.

November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible neutral to. If November extends the decline off June’s high, April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.56 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.56 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.97. First support is today’s low crossing at 12.00. Second support is April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2.

December soybean meal closed down $7.70 at 363.90.

December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday and is poised to renew last week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 357.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 376.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 376.80. Second resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 393.30. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 360.50. Second support is July’s low crossing at 357.00.

December soybean oil closed down 13 pts. at 42.69.

December soybean closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 40.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 44.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.05. First support is today’s low crossing at 42.62. Second support is weekly support crossing at 40.56.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 15520.59 -1.38 -0.01%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 3618.45 +19.31 +0.53%
S&P 500 CASH 1685.96 +0.63 +0.04%
SPDR S&P 500 168.70 +0.11 +0.07%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 12.38 +0.09 +0.73%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 103.57 +0.18 +0.17%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3028.20 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 3094.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3028.22. Second support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 3023.50.

The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1665.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1665.30.

The Dow closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,406 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends this year’s rally, upside targets will be hard to project with the Dow trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 15,604. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,406. Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at 15,405.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Sep 2013 133.81250 -0.09375 -0.07%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.6564 +0.0064 +0.01%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Sep 2013 121.304688 -0.046875 -0.04%
ULTRA T-BONDS Sep 2013 143.53125 -0.12500 -0.09%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.945 +0.005 +0.02%

INTEREST RATES

T-bonds closed down 8/32 at 133-29.

September T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September renews last week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 132-02 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July’s low, the reaction high crossing at 136-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 136-27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140-28. First support is July’s low crossing at 132-02. Second support is monthly support crossing at 130-25.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2013 153.250 -0.025 -0.02%
LEAN HOGS Oct 2013 83.200 -1.300 -1.56%
LIVE CATTLE Oct 2013 125.700 +0.050 +0.04%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 26.8199 -0.0761 -0.29%

LIVESTOCK

hogs closed down $1.30 at $83.20.

October hog gapped down and closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last week’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 82.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today’s gap crossing at 84.20. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.25. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 82.68. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 81.66.

October cattle closed down $0.32 at 125.65.

October cattle closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 127.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.17 would confirm a downside breakout of this month’s trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.95. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 121.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 121.00.

August feeder cattle closed down $0.02 at $153.25.

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May’s low, April’s high crossing at 154.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 154.15. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 154.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 149.90.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Dec 2013 1328.7 +3.9 +0.29%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 128.18 -0.29 -0.23%
SILVER Sep 2013 19.845 +0.165 +0.84%
PALLADIUM Sep 2013 734.75 +6.10 +0.84%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 75.0795 +1.5095 +2.01%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 42.93 -0.16 -0.37%

PRECIOUS METALS

October gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extend the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.50. Second support is July’s low crossing at 1208.50.

September silver closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.657 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 22.525 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 20.595. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 22.525. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.657. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 18.670.

September copper closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s decline, July’s low crossing at 302.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 314.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 314.02. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 323.40. First support is July’s low crossing at 302.50. Second support is June’s low crossing at 298.55.


 

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# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. YM.U13.E DJ $5 (E-MINI) Sep 2013 15482 -11 -0.07% 12,722 +100    Entry Signal
2. 6S.U13.E SWISS FRANC Sep 2013 1.0773 +0.0007 +0.07% 10,781 +90    Entry Signal
3. SP.U13 S&P 500 INDEX Sep 2013 1684.7 +2.2 +0.13% 3,893 +100    Entry Signal
4. GE.Q13.E EURODOLLAR Aug 2013 99.7300 0.0000 0.00% 3,558 +90    Entry Signal
5. OJ.U13.E ORANGE JUICE-A Sep 2013 145.60 -0.35 -0.24% 2,384 +90    Entry Signal
6. OJ.X13.E ORANGE JUICE-A Nov 2013 145.80 -0.20 -0.14% 2,084 +90    Entry Signal
7. FC.V13 FEEDER CATTLE Oct 2013 158.625 -0.300 -0.19% 1,251 +100    Entry Signal
8. GF.U13.E FEEDER CATTLE Sep 2013 156.600 -0.250 -0.16% 1,205 +100    Entry Signal
9. ZQ.U13.E 30 DAY FED FUND Sep 2013 99.895 0.000 0.00% 1,172 +100    Entry Signal
10. CL.U14.E CRUDE OIL Sep 2014 93.30 -0.28 -0.30% 947 +90    Entry Signal
Annunci

Economic Buffet Starts Wednesday – 07/31/2013

On Tuesday investors had light fare to chew on with Redbook (retail sales), Consumer Confidence and Home Price Index reports. Each was solid, but not fortifying enough to break out of the recent trading range.

Wednesday provides a more substantial diet of economic reports including ADP Employment, Q2 GDP, and FOMC Meeting Announcement. This gets followed up Thursday with a serving of Jobless Claims, ISM Mfg, PMI Mfg, and Construction Spending. Then for dessert on Friday we get Government Employment, Personal Income & Outlays, and Factory Orders.

The quality of these reports will give us a green light to finally break above 1700. Or it may scare investors into a steeper correction before the 4 ½ year bull rally continues.

I like the odds of a b reakout occurring as I moved back towards 100% invested by adding three new top ranked stocks to my portfolio Tuesday. Yet I still have some cash on hand in case I can snag some quality shares on any temporary pullback.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 31/07/2013

MERCATO USA
Borsa Usa: Dow Jones e S&P500 chiudono poco mossi, Facebook spinge il Nasdaq

Chiusura a due velocità per i principali indici a Wall Street. L’indice tecnologico Nasdaq Composite ha guadagnato lo 0,48% mentre Dow Jones e S&P500 hanno chiuso poco mossi (rispettivamente -0,01% e +0,04%). Luci ed ombre dai dati macroeconomici pubblicati in giornata. L’indice di fiducia dei consumatori nel mese di luglio è sceso a 80,3 da 81,4 del mese precedente (dato rivisto al ribasso). Gli analisti si attendevano 81,3 punti. L’indice S&P/Case-Shiller è aumentato a maggio del 12,2% su base annua. Gli economisti si attendevano un incremento del 10,5%. Pfizer +0,44%. Il colosso farmaceutico ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con un utile di 14,1 miliardi di dollari, in netta crescita rispetto ai 3,25 miliardi dello stesso periodo di un anno prima. L’Eps adjusted è pari a 0,56 dollari, 1 cent in più rispetto alle attese.

Inferiore al consensus invece il giro d’affari (-7,1% a 12,97 miliardi). Merck & Co -0,6%. Il gruppo farmaceutico ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con profitti dimezzati a 906 milioni di dollari. L’Eps adjusted è pari a 0,84 dollari, 2 centesimi in più rispetto alle attese. Deludono invece i ricavi scesi a 11,01 miliardi contro i 12,31 miliardi dello stesso periodo di un anno prima. Confermate le stime 2013. Sprint +7,32%. L’operatore telefonico ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con una perdita di 1,6 miliardi di dollari contro il rosso di 1,4 miliardi di un anno prima. Sul risultato pesano i costi di circa un miliardo relativi alla chiusura della piattaforma Nextel. I ricavi sono cresciuti a 8,88 miliardi di dollari contro i 8,84 miliardi del secondo trimestre 2012 e i 8,74 miliardi attesi dagli analisti.

Aetna -0,71%. La holding statunitense attiva nel campo della sanità ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con un utile di 536 milioni di dollari contro i 457,6 milioni dello stesso periodo di un anno prima. I ricavi sono cresciuti a 11,54 miliardi da 8,84 miliardi del secondo trimestre 2012. L’Eps è pari a 1,49 dollari, 9 centesimi in più rispetto alle attese. Crollano Mosaic (-17,28%) e Potash (-16,54%). La russa Uralkali ha rotto l’alleanza con il partner Bielorusso nel settore del potassio. Gli analisti temono il crollo del prezzo dell’elemento chimico. Jp Morgan -0,65%. La Banca Usa pagherà 410 milioni di dollari per aver manipolato il mercato dell’energia elettrica in California e nelle regioni centro-occidentali del Midwest del Paese. Goodyear +8,92%. Il produttore di pneumatici ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con un utile per azione di 0,76 dollari, ben al di sopra del consensus.  Facebook +6,2%. Il titolo del social network si è riportato a ridosso dei 38 dollari, prezzo dell’Ipo.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Borse asiatiche deboli. Scende ancora il Nikkei

Nuovo ribasso per il Nikkei che scivola pericolosamente verso i minimi delle ultime sedute arretrando dell’1,45% a 13668,32 punti. Il tentativo di recupero che i corsi hanno avviato sfruttando il supporto della media mobile a 100 sedute, a 13600 circa, rischia dunque di essere cancellato dai ripiegamenti odierni che mettono nuovamente sotto pressione tale sostegno. Il rischio che l’indice possa intraprendere una fase correttiva piu’ ampia dell’ascesa intrapresa dai minimi di novembre e’ elevato. Conferme in questo senso verrebbero comunque solo al di sotto del supporto strategico a 12400 punti, minimi di giugno, per il momento ancora distante. Le speranze di recupero dipendono invece dalla capacita’ dei prezzi di superare i 14000 punti e quindi di riavvicinarsi alla resistenza a 15000.

Una vittoria oltre questo ultimo ostacolo ripristinerebbe la tendenza ascendente di lungo periodo in direzione dei record di quest’anno a 16000 punti. Debole anche il Topix che scende a quota 1131,70 punti (-1,47%). Sul versante macroeconomico Markit ha reso noto che l’Indice PMI manifatturiero Nomura/JMMA giapponese e’ sceso nel mese di luglio a quota 50,7 punti dai 52,3 punti della precedente rilevazione. L’indice si mantiene comunque al di sopra del livello di equilibrio di 50 punti, mostrando continuità nel rafforzamento delle condizioni operative del settore manifatturiero giapponese. In Giappone il Salario medio mensile è cresciuto dello 0,1% a giugno rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012. Gli addetti ai lavori avevano tuttavia previsto un incremento pari allo 0,2%. Inoltre e’ stato rivisto al ribasso il dato di maggio, da +0,0% a -0,1% a/a.

In Giappone il dato relativo ai Nuovi Cantieri edili residenziali e’ salito a giugno del 15,3% su base annuale, facendo registrare una crescita lievemente inferiore alle attese degli analisti che avevano stimato un incremento del 15,8%. Gli ordinativi di nuove costruzioni sono cresciuti del 21,9% nello stesso periodo. Il rafforzamento dello yen ha penalizzato le società esportatrici come Toyota (-1,65%) e Suzuki Motor, in calo del 3,65%. Forte ribasso per Jujitsu (-3,09%) dopo l’annuncio di aver archiviato di una perdita netta di 21,9 miliardi di yen nel secondo trimestre 2013. Negative anche le altre principali piazze azionarie asiatiche con Hong Kong che cede lo 0,39% e Seoul lascia sul campo lo 0,16% mentre Shanghai è in moderata crescita dello 0,19%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Borse europee negative in avvio di seduta

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto la seduta in ribasso. Il Dax30 di Francoforte cede lo 0,5%, il Cac40 di Parigi lo 0,3%, il Ftse100 di Londra lo 0,12% e l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,35%. Sui mercati pesa l’incertezza legata alle decisioni della Fed, attese nelle prossime ore. Volkswagen +2%. La casa automobilistica tedesca ha chiuso il primo semestre con ricavi pari a 98,68 miliardi di euro, in crescita del 3,5% rispetto allo stesso periodo di un anno prima e con un utile netto di 4,79 miliardi (-45,8%).

Il risultato operativo si attesta a 5,78 miliardi (-11,6%). Per l’intero esercizio il gruppo si attende utili operativi in linea con il 2012. Eads +1,2% cambierà nome in Airbus. Lo ha deciso il board del gruppo franco-tedesco che ha anche approvato i risultati del secondo trimestre. Nel periodo aprile-giugno i ricavi sono cresciuti del 3% a 13,95 miliardi mentre il risultato operativo è salito del 23% a 887 milioni. I dati sono superiori alle attese. Bnp Paribas +0,8%. La banca francese ha chiuso il secondo trimestre con un utile netto in calo del 4,7% a 1,76 miliardi. Gli analisti avevano previsto una contrazione dei profitti a 1,5 miliardi. Peugeot +9%. Il gruppo francese ha chiuso il primo semestre con una perdita di 426 milioni di euro contro il rosso di 818 milioni di un anno prima.

I ricavi sono calati del 3,8% a 27,7 miliardi. Invensys +2%. La francese Schneider Electric ha lanciato un’Opa sul gruppo tecnologico a 502 pence per azione per un controvalore di circa 3,85 miliardi di euro. ThyssenKrupp -5%. Ubs ha tagliato il rating sul titolo del produttore di acciaio a neutral da buy. Bayer +0,1%. Il gruppo chimico ha confermato le stime per l’esercizio in corso ma ha avvertito che gli obiettivi si fanno più ambiziosi. L’Ebitda nel secondo trimestre, pari a 2,2 miliardi di euro, è in linea con le attese.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari in calo. Telecom Italia affonda su ipotesi aumento di capitale

Il Ftse Mib segna -0,6%, il Ftse Italia All-Share -0,5%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap -0,1%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,2%.

Borse europee sotto la parità. Ieri sera a New York l’S&P 500 ha terminato a +0,04%, il Nasdaq a +0,048%, il Dow Jones a -0,01%. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in leggera flessione. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha chiuso a -1,45%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng al momento segna -0,3% circa. Telecom Italia (-4,9%) perde terreno dopo che il Messaggero ha scritto che potrebbe effettuare svalutazioni per 1,5-2 miliardi di euro e quindi valutare l’ipotesi di aumento di capitale.

Mediaset (-1,7%) e Mondadori (-1,5%) ritracciano dopo i progressi di ieri. La sentenza della Cassazione sul processo relativo ai diritti tv che vede imputato Silvio Berlusconi potrebbe arrivare oggi a fine pomeriggio. Ieri Mondadori ha comunicato di aver chiuso il primo semestre con ricavi in calo del 9,4% a/a e una perdita di 27,1 milioni di euro.

Fiat (-1,1%) debole nonostante la sentenza della corte del Delaware che ha accolto le domande del Lingotto su due delle questioni più rilevanti della causa con VEBA in merito alla call option sulla partecipazione in Chrysler. Fiat auspica che possano essere presto risolte le poche questioni ancora aperte nel contenzioso.

Performance positiva per Mediolanum (+0,9% a 5,70 euro) grazie alla decisione di BofA-Merrill Lynch alza target di incrementare il target price sul titolo a 6,2 euro.


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Buona intonazione grafica per Gtech che dopo il return move verso l’ex resistenza a 20,30 euro torna a puntare verso l’alto. Il titolo ha ottime possibilità di rivedere nel breve termine il massimo di metà maggio a 21,77, ostacolo oltre il quale verrebbe riattivata la tendenza rialzista di lungo periodo in direzione di 25,20 almeno. Lo scenario positivo verrebbe messo in discussione da un’eventuale discesa sotto 19,50, evento che anticiperebbe il ritorno sul minimo di fine giugno a 18,52.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long sui livelli attuali per 21,77, stop sotto 20,30.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 21,77 per 25,20, ridurre sotto 19,50 e uscire alla violazione di 18,52.

Grazie agli ultimi rialzi Pirelli&C ha migliorato in misura significativa il quadro grafico di lungo periodo. Le quotazioni hanno infatti oltrepassato gli importanti ostacoli a 9,70/9,80 euro, riattivando il movimento ascendente di fondo, con i prezzi sui massimi dal 2001. Possibile ora un allungo verso 11,15/11,20, con obiettivi di medio termine a 13,50 circa. Concrete indicazioni di debolezza solo alla violazione di 9,10/9,20, prologo a un approfondimento sui minimi allineati di area 8,50.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long sui livelli attuali per 11,15, stop sotto 9,50.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare sui livelli attuali per 13,50, ridurre sotto 9,10 e uscire alla violazione di 8,40.

Intesa Sanpaolo (+2,80%) torna a crescere e si riaffaccia sulla trendline che scende dai massimi di inizio anno, in area 1,45. Oltre questa soglia atteso il ritorno sui top annuali a 1,542. Diversamente probabile assistere ad un ripiegamento verso 1,31, supporto praticamente orizzontale definito dal passaggio delle medie mobili a 100 e 200 giorni.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: acquistare oltre 1,44 per il target a 1,4850 (successivo a 1,54), stop sotto 1,39
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 1,35 per gli obiettivi a 1,4850 e 1,54

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Mercoledì 31 luglio 2013
01:15 GIA Indice PMI manifatturiero lug;
08:00 GER Vendite al dettaglio giu;
08:45 FRA Consumi giu;
09:55 GER Tasso disoccupazione lug;
09:55 GER Variazione n° disoccupati lug;
10:00 ITA Tasso disoccupazione giu;
11:00 EUR Inflazione (flash) lug;
11:00 EUR Tasso disoccupazione giu;
11:00 ITA Inflazione lug;
12:00 ITA Indice prezzi alla produzione giu;
14:15 USA Nuovi occupati settore privato(ADP) lug;
14:30 USA Indice costo del lavoro T2;
14:30 USA Deflatore consumi T2;
14:30 USA PIL T2 (1a stima);
15:45 USA Indice PMI Chicago lug;
16:30 USA Scorte settimanali petrolio e derivati;
20:00 Riunione FOMC (Fed) e decisione tassi.


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HEADLINES
Mediolanum (+0,9% a 5,7 euro): BofA-Merrill Lynch alza il target
BofA-Merrill Lynch ha incrementato il target price sul titolo a 6,2 euro.

Telecom Italia (-3,4%): ipotesi aumento di capitale (Messaggero)
Telecom Italia perde terreno dopo che il Messaggero ha scritto che potrebbe effettuare svalutazioni per 1,5-2 miliardi di euro e quindi valutare l’ipotesi di aumento di capitale.

Fiat: estensione della joint venture paritetica FGA Capital
Fiat Group Automobiles (“FGA”), Crédit Agricole (“CASA”) e Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance (CACF) hanno raggiunto un accordo per il rinnovo della loro joint venture paritetica in FGA Capital (“FGAC”) fino al 31 dicembre 2021. CACF e FGA hanno concordato di rinnovare la durata della loro alleanza in FGAC al fine di assicurare nel tempo la sostenibilità di FGAC, società “captive” che gestisce le principali attività finanziarie di FGA in Europa nel finanziamento alla clientela finale e ai concessionari, nella locazione di lunga durata e nella gestione delle flotte. Questa attività è geograficamente ben diversificata tra i principali paesi europei.
FGAC continuerà a beneficiare del sostegno finanziario del Gruppo Crédit Agricole pur continuando a rafforzare la propria partecipazione attiva ai mercati della cartolarizzazione e del debito.

Prelios: perfezionati gli accordi relativi all’esenzione Opa
Facendo seguito a quanto già comunicato al mercato il 28 giugno 2013 e l’11 luglio 2013 – nel quadro dell’aumento di capitale in opzione per un importo massimo complessivo di Euro 115.009.511,53, deliberato dall’Assemblea Straordinaria degli Azionisti della Società in data 8 maggio 2013, di cui al Prospetto Informativo pubblicato in data 18 luglio 2013, e che ha avuto avvio il 22 luglio 2013 – Prelios S.p.A. rende noto che tutti i soggetti coinvolti nella complessiva operazione di riequilibrio finanziario e capitalizzazione della Società, avendo formalmente completato i rispettivi iter approvativi, hanno definito e sottoscritto gli accordi e rispettivi impegni, in attuazione e conformità alle condizioni stabilite da Consob ai fini dell’esenzione dagli obblighi OPA.
Si ricorda, che tale esenzione era una delle condizioni necessarie per l’esecuzione della citata operazione straordinaria e che la stessa è stata accordata da Consob con Delibera n. 18565 del 31 maggio 2013, come successivamente integrata dalla Delibera n. 18607 del 9 luglio 2013.

Italcementi: perdita di 43,3 milioni nel primo semestre
Il Consiglio di Amministrazione di Italcementi ha preso in esame ed approvato la Relazione finanziaria semestrale al 30 giugno 2013. Nonostante il favorevole andamento dei prezzi, i ricavi hanno segnato un calo del 6,2% nel semestre (2.156,6 milioni di euro) sia per la contrazione dei volumi che per un sensibile effetto cambi negativo. La contrazione è stata peraltro più contenuta nel secondo trimestre (-3,6%). Il risultato del periodo segna una perdita di 43,3 milioni, si confronta con l’utile di 1,3 milioni del 1° semestre 2012 che aveva beneficiato di 8,6 milioni dalle plusvalenze sulla cessione di Afyon e Fuping.

Bpm: proroga termine per conciliazione relativa al prestito obbligazionario “Convertendo BPM 2009/2013 – 6,75%”
Banca Popolare di Milano S. c. a r. l. rende noto che, in ragione del crescente numero di richieste pervenute e dei positivi riscontri ottenuti presso la propria Clientela dalla procedura di conciliazione paritetica relativa al prestito obbligazionario denominato “Convertendo BPM 2009/2013 – 6,75%”, il termine per la presentazione delle domande di ammissione è stato prorogato sino alla data del 31 dicembre 2013.
Tale proroga, disposta d’intesa con le Associazioni dei Consumatori sottoscrittrici del Protocollo del 3 agosto 2012, è volta a consentire l’accesso alla procedura conciliativa anche a coloro che, pur interessati ad avvalersi dei vantaggi dello strumento conciliativo, non siano stati in grado di presentare la propria domanda entro il 30 aprile 2013, termine che era stato originariamente fissato.

AIM Italia – gettiamo un po’ di luce…

L’AIM Italia è un indice poco conosciuto di Borsa Italiana, ed è una diretta derivazione dell’omonimo inglese della Borsa londinese. Chiaramente, visto che la Borsa nostrana è di proprietà di quella britannica, anche da noi il mercato delle società ad elevata crescita si chiama così, adesso.

L’AIM è poco considerato, ed è di conseguenza poco tradato. Quella che segue è la lista dei titoli  che lo compongono (solo 25). Per dare un’idea della comparazione, quelli quotati sulla Borsa inglese sono oltre 3000.

Da inizio anno l’indice ha performato pochissimo più dell’inflazione: +1,5% ad oggi (inflazione al 1,2%). Dei 25 titoli quotati, 15 sono in ngativo, con varie performances, ad 1 anno, mentre uno è assolutamente pari. Tra i nove titoli in positivo, si trovano due stelle assolute, almeno per chi vi ha investito: Frendy Energy (+176,28%) e Neurosoft (+169,13%).

La volatilità dell’indice, visti i pochi titoli, il flottante spesso basso, e la quasi totlale assenza di operatori (e, di conseguenza, di interesse), è elevatissima. Ne va da se che, se si possono cogliere delle chiare opportunità, il rapporto rischio/rendimento è molto, molto elevato, e di conseguenza altrettanto elevate sono le possibilità di perdere soldi (come di guadagnare, sia ben chiaro).

I due titoli evidenziati, per quanto abbiano performato benissimo, rappresentano due casi isolati, ma sarebbero certamente meritevoli di ulteriore attenzione, se non fosse che… aggiornamento: Neurosoft ha cessato le contrattazioni il 4/4/2011. Ne va da sè che quanto detto resta valido solo per Frendy Energy

aim1 aim2

Quartz Daily Brief—Obama’s bargain, Manning’s verdict, Zimbabwe’s vote

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Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The Fed minds its language. At its policy meeting the US central bank is expected to keep its bond-buying program going, but may tweak its statement to quash rumors of imminent interest-rate rises. Recent Fed pronouncements have confused economy-watchers, businesses, and even robots.

The US economy grows overnight. While second-quarter GDP is expected to have grown at just 0.9% year-on-year, a set of revisions to GDP going back to 1929 will make overall output look about 3% higher. It’s all about whether you count “Seinfeld” as economic activity, apparently.

Management consultants unite? Accenture is in talks to acquire smaller rival Booz & Co., the Wall Street Journal reports.

Zimbabwe goes to the polls. Prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai will challenge Robert Mugabe for the presidency for the third time. Mugabe, who has been president since 1980, has vowed to step down if defeated, but Zimbabwe-watchers are not optimistic.

Will Facebook break its IPO share price? The company’s stock has surged in the past week since it reported strong results and progress in developing a mobile ad business. The share price hit $37.96 on Tuesday, just shy of the $38 it debuted at in a May 2012 IPO that was seen as vastly overpriced.

Spotlight on earnings. Comcast, the largest pay-TV company in the US, should show strong numbers on the back of price hikes that helped offset a drop in video subscribers. CBS, in a standoff over fees with Time Warner Cable, expects less impressive earnings due to the slowdown in ad spending. Other big firms reporting include Anheuser-Busch, BNP Paribas, Honda, Diageo, and Bharti Airtel.

While you were sleeping

Obama proposed a grand bargain… The US president offered Republicans a deal: reduced corporate tax rates in exchange for more spending on programs that would create jobs. It probably won’t go through.

…and prepared an Egypt detachment. President Obama asked Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham to travel to Egypt next week and negotiate with the country’s leadership. They are expected to put pressure on interim prime minister Adly Mansour to scale back the army’s violent response to protests, and they have leverage: US aid to Egypt amounts to roughly $1.55 billion a year.

Taiwan is more resilient. Its economy beat estimates to grow 2.27% last quarter, even as China’s slowdown reduces demand for Taiwan’s exports.

Bradley Manning’s mixed verdict. The US soldier who sent more than 700,000 government documents to WikiLeaks was found not guilty of the most serious charge he faced, aiding the enemy. But he could still get up to 136 years in prison on 20 other counts.

The UN gave an ultimatum to DR Congo rebels. The militarized UN force has been given authorization to use lethal force if the M23 rebel group—accused of killing civilians in and around the city of Goma—does not disarm by 2000 GMT on Thursday.

More North Korean toys discovered. Panamanian officials have found 12 MiG-21 fighter jet engines and five military vehicles in a detained ship that was originally bound for North Korea. The latest find is in addition to two fighter jets and missile radar systems discovered previously.

Sponsor content by Box

How the world’s largest amusement park company collaborates. Six Flags was struggling to share files in the workplace. Sean Anderson, Director of Interactive Services, discovered Box was the answer. Now the team shares large media assets with ridiculous ease.

Quartz obsession interlude

David Yanofsky on why traffic jams are a sign of a healthy economy. “Traffic is used as a proxy for economic activity because it measures people going to work and deliveries being made, according to INRIX. While the capacity of a road changes infrequently, the commerce that transits them fluctuates. Congestion on US roads was up 8.3% from last June, according to data released today.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Israelis need to be shaken out of their escapism. People believe it doesn’t matter if the current peace talks fail.

Generation Y has a heart. Youth support for benefit cuts is not as great as some would have you believe.

The Manning verdict is bad news for Edward Snowden. The US will show no mercy if it gets its hands on the former NSA contractor.

Japan’s conservatives should get over the war. Dogmatic posturing will only spur angry nationalism in East Asia.

The US should suspend aid to Egypt now, not let American military contractors set its foreign policy.

Surprising discoveries

An unexpected fan club for “Fifty Shades of Grey.” The erotic novels are favorites with prisoners at Guantánamo Bay.

Free food doesn’t buy you loyalty. Despite having some of the best perks, Google’s staff are quitting at high rates.

The Bank of England helped sell Nazi gold. The central bank admitted that it helped Nazis sell gold plundered from Czechoslovakia just months before the Second World War.

Milking the “cronut” craze. It took less than two months for Dunkin’ Donuts to mass produce the lovechild of the croissant and the donut.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, and Dunkin’ Cronuts to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

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Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed Day

 

 

The S&P 500 closed up less than a single point on the day. The index traded as much as 0.4% higher in early trading, but faded throughout the day on no specific news before rising into the close.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index recorded year-over-year growth of 12.2% versus the 12.4% consensus. In reaction, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) outperformed the market today, up 1.0% at the close.

Consumer confidence came in at 80.3, which was slightly less than the 81.0 consensus.

In commodities, crude oil dropped $1.40 to $103.15 per barrel while gold fell 0.2% to $1,326 per ounce.The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 2 bps to 2.60%.

Facebook (FB) finished up 5% on the day, climbing as high as $37.66. This is the closest the stock has traded to its IPO price of $38 since going public more than a year ago.

Coach (COH) tumbled 8.5% after releasing disappointing earnings before the market open.

In a continuation of its volatile action, the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.5% despite Japan) reporting disappointing household spending, unemployment, and industrial production.

The PMI manufacturing index will be released at 7:15 p.m. EDT tonight.

The ADP employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:15 a.m. EDT tomorrow morning. Private payrolls are expected to rise by 179K.

GDP will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with second-quarter growth expected to come in at 1.1%.

The Chicago PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The index is expected to record a reading of 54.0 after seeing 51.6 last month.

The FOMC will be making an announcement regarding its monetary policy at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The target federal funds rate is expected to remain unchanged, though traders will be watching for details regarding tapering of QE activities.

Mastercard (MA), Questcor (QCOR), Sodastream (SODA) and Yelp (YELP) will be releasing earnings tomorrow.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday 30/07/2013

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future is trending higher 29 points to 15512. The US Dollar Index fell 0.002 points to 81.703. Gold has slid 5.53 dollars to 1322.95. Silver is down 0.1979 dollars to 19.6576. The Dow Industrials moved lower 36.86 points, at 15521.97, while the S&P 500 declined 6.32 points, last seen at 1685.33. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower 15.82 points to 3597.34. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
Option Trade of The Week
Tuesday Jul 30th

Today’s Video Update: Walmart, Ammo and The Constitution
Monday Jul 29th

Gold Chart of The Week
Monday Jul 29th

Key Events for Tuesday

7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index

Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +1.4%)

Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +2.1%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

MoM % Change (previous +0.9%)

12MonChgPct (previous +3.1%)

52WkChgPct (previous +3.3%)

9:00 AM ET. May S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index

10-city Index, M/M (previous +2.6%)

10-city Index, Y/Y (previous +11.6%)

20-city Index, M/M (previous +2.5%)

20-city Index, Y/Y (expected +12.3%; previous +12.1%)

National Q/Q

National Y/Y

10:00 AM ET. June Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. 2 Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies

10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index (expected 81.3; previous 81.4)

Expectation Index (previous 89.5)

Present Situation Index (previous 69.2)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.4M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.89M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.71M)

Refinery Runs (previous 92.3%)

N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
U.S $ INDEX 81.703 -0.002 -0.00%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 22.10 0.00 0.00%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.02706 -0.00004 -0.00%
Euro/US Dollar 1.32752 +0.00262 +0.20%
JAPANESE YEN Sep 2013 0.010222 +0.000001 +0.01%
SWISS FRANC Sep 2013 1.0763 +0.0009 +0.08%

CURRENCIES

September Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.07. First support is today’s low crossing at 81.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15.

The September Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 133.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 133.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 133.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.81.

The September British Pound closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5509 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5177 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5385. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1.5509. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5177. Second support is the July 11th gap crossing at 1.5009.

The September Swiss Franc closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off July’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the reaction high crossing at .10829 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10580 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .10800. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10829. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10580. Second support is the July 11th gap crossing at .10446.

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 97.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.91.

The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at .10669 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10022 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .10245. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .10669. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10022. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9852.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Sep 2013 103.88 -0.67 -0.64%
NEW YORK HARBOR ULSD Sep 2013 3.0137 -0.0053 -0.18%
NATURAL GAS Sep 2013 3.442 -0.030 -0.86%
RBOB GASOLINE Sep 2013 2.9774 -0.0006 -0.02%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY 49.5180 -0.2721 -0.55%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 61.031 -0.489 -0.80%

ENERGIES

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

September heating oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April’s low, the 87% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 313.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 313.22. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 313.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.74. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 297.08.

September unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 321.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 309.17. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 321.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.83. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 290.90.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January’s low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 3.833. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January’s low crossing at 3.350.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Sep 2013 2280 0 0.00%
COFFEE Sep 2013 121.20 +0.05 +0.04%
ORANGE JUICE-A Sep 2013 145.95 +1.90 +1.30%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 58.7300 +1.3301 +2.25%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 46.9401 -0.3099 -0.66%

FOOD & FIBER

September coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 11.86 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 135.81 is the next upside target.

September cocoa gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 23.84 is the next upside target.

October sugar closed sharply higher on Monday as it extended the rally off July’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today’s rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off June’s high, May’s low crossing at 81.83 is the next downside target. If October extends the rally off last week’s low, the reaction high crossing at 87.82 is the next upside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Dec 2013 477.00 +3.75 +0.79%
OATS Dec 2013 327.25 -0.25 -0.08%
WHEAT Sep 2013 656.00 +4.50 +0.69%
TEUCRIUM CORN 35.967 -0.193 -0.54%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 46.400 +0.170 +0.37%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 6.49 -0.03 -0.48%
SOYBEANS Nov 2013 1222.00 +2.00 +0.16%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2013 1222.750 +2.750 +0.23%
SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2013 371.9 +0.3 +0.08%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 23.0396 -0.0004 -0.00%

GRAINS

Corn closed down 2 3/4-cents at 4.73 1/4.

December corn closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 4.67 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.90 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.99 1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.67 3/4.

December wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 6.63 1/4.

December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, psychological support crossing at 6.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.05 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.58 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.50.

December Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/2-cents at 7.00 3/4.

December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 7.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.28. First support is today’s low crossing at 7.00 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 7.00.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2-cents at 7.45 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends this year’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 7.25 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.66 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.66 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 7.25 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

soybeans closed down 8 1/2-cents at 12.20.

November soybeans closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible neutral to. If November extends the decline off June’s high, the 87% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 12.04 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.58 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.58 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.97. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 12.07 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 12.04 1/2.

December soybean meal closed up $1.70 at 371.60.

December soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 357.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 379.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 379.30. Second resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 393.30. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 360.50. Second support is July’s low crossing at 357.00.

December soybean oil closed down 91 pts. at 42.82.

December soybean closed lower on Monday as it extends this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 40.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 44.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.20. First support is today’s low crossing at 42.68. Second support is weekly support crossing at 40.56.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 15521.97 -36.86 -0.24%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 3597.34 -15.82 -0.44%
S&P 500 CASH 1685.33 -6.32 -0.38%
SPDR S&P 500 168.40 -0.71 -0.42%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 12.18 +0.91 +7.40%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 103.17 -0.95 -0.92%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last Friday’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3020.11 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3087.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 3023.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3020.11.

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1661.54.

The Dow closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year’s rally, upside targets will be hard to project with the Dow trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,379 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 15,604. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 15,405. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,379.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Sep 2013 134.06250 -0.09375 -0.07%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.6500 0.0000 0.00%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Sep 2013 121.375000 -0.046875 -0.04%
ULTRA T-BONDS Sep 2013 143.81250 -0.15625 -0.11%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.945 +0.005 +0.02%

INTEREST RATES

T-bonds closed down 21/32 at 134-02.

September T-bonds closed lower on Monday ending a two-day bounce off last Wednesday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September renews last week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 132-02 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July’s low, the reaction high crossing at 136-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 136-27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140-28. First support is July’s low crossing at 132-02. Second support is monthly support crossing at 130-25.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2013 153.275 +0.675 +0.44%
LEAN HOGS Oct 2013 83.650 -0.850 -1.01%
LIVE CATTLE Oct 2013 125.850 -0.125 -0.10%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 26.8199 -0.0761 -0.28%

LIVESTOCK

hogs closed up $0.13 at $97.90.

August hog closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.75 would confirm that a double top with June’s high has been posted. If August renews the rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at 99.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 99.55. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 99.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 95.13.

August cattle closed up $0.30 at 122.10.

August cattle closed higher on Monday. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at 124.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.17 would confirm a downside breakout of this month’s trading range. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 123.10. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 12410. First support is the reaction low crossing at 121.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 121.00.

August feeder cattle closed up $0.67 at $153.27.

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May’s low, April’s high crossing at 154.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 154.15. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 154.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 149.90.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Dec 2013 1323.9 -5.7 -0.43%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 128.49 -0.29 -0.23%
SILVER Sep 2013 19.630 -0.234 -1.18%
PALLADIUM Sep 2013 739.65 -5.00 -0.67%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 71.6501 +0.2601 +0.35%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 43.06 -0.16 -0.37%

PRECIOUS METALS

October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July’s low crossing at 1208.50.

September silver closed higher on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.650 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 22.525 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 20.595. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 22.525. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.650. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 18.670.

September copper closed higher due to short covering on Monday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last Friday’s decline, July’s low crossing at 302.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 315.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 315.49. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 323.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-June decline crossing at 330.48. First support is July’s low crossing at 302.50. Second support is June’s low crossing at 298.55.


 

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9. MDLZ MONDELEZ INTL 31.5525 -0.0275 -0.09% 6,776,126 +100    Entry Signal
10. CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERGY 22.67 -0.18 -0.79% 6,123,770 +100    Entry Signal
Top Futures
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. NQ.U13.E NASDAQ 100 INDEX (E-MINI) Sep 2013 3076.0 +10.5 +0.34% 18,366 +100    Entry Signal
2. CL.Z14.E CRUDE OIL Dec 2014 92.05 -0.31 -0.34% 1,034 +100    Entry Signal
3. YM.U13.E DJ $5 (E-MINI) Sep 2013 15512 +29 +0.19% 14,639 +100    Entry Signal
4. ZM.U13.E SOYBEAN MEAL Sep 2013 415.3 +3.8 +0.92% 2,120 +100    Entry Signal
5. ZQ.U13.E 30 DAY FED FUND Sep 2013 99.895 0.000 0.00% 1,172 +100    Entry Signal
6. FC.V13 FEEDER CATTLE Oct 2013 158.925 +0.825 +0.52% 1,152 +100    Entry Signal
7. GF.U13.E FEEDER CATTLE Sep 2013 156.850 +0.850 +0.54% 1,048 +90    Entry Signal
8. ND.U13 NASDAQ 100 INDEX Sep 2013 3065.5 -5.0 -0.16% 1,029 +90    Entry Signal
9. GF.V13.E FEEDER CATTLE Oct 2013 158.925 +0.825 +0.52% 1,020 +90    Entry Signal
10. GE.Q13.E EURODOLLAR Aug 2013 99.7300 0.0000 0.00% 823 +90    Entry Signal