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September T-bonds closed down 1-23/32’s at 148-04.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower on Friday while extending this
month’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the
rally off this month’s low, June’s high crossing at 152-19 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 146-28 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is this month’s high
crossing at 152-19. First support is the reaction low crossing at 147-21.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146-28.
ENERGY MARKETS
August crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 82.52 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s
night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
August renews this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the
2011-2012-rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 92.52. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 77.28. Second
support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 73.28.
August heating oil closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday and
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.48. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in
or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 274.41 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted. If August renews this spring’s decline, the
75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 244.62 is the next
downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 271.72. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 274.41. First support is Monday’s
low crossing at 250.84. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
2011-2012-rally crossing at 244.62.
August unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Friday due to short covering
and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 256.40. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 268.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews
this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally
crossing at 232.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 268.59. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 281.62. First support is last week’s low crossing at 244.08. Second
support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 232.10.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and is poised to extend
this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning
neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.524 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month’s
rally, February’s high crossing at 3.137 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 2.975. Second resistance is
February’s high crossing at 3.137. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 2.696. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
2.545.
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday and European debt
concerns eased. Today’s close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.32
tempers the near-term friendly outlook. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at
83.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 83.45. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 84.00. First
support is the 50% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 81.51.
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at
80.92.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 125.68 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral hinting that a low
might be in or is near. If September renews this year’s decline, weekly support
crossing at 122.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 127.59 are needed to renew this month’s rally. First resistance is
this month’s high crossing at 127.59. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 128.38. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 124.17. Second
support is this month’s low crossing at 122.98.
The September British Pound closed sharply higher on Friday and above the
10-day moving average crossing at 1.5616 tempering the near-term bearish
outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the decline off last week’s high, the reaction low crossing
at 1.5448 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1.5773. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
April-June decline crossing at 1.5890. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 1.5448. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 1.5266.
The September Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Friday and above the
10-day moving average crossing at .10479 confirming that a short-term low has
been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, June’s low
crossing at .10280 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at .10638. Second resistance is fib resistance crossing
at .10749. First support is this month’s low crossing at .10280. Second support
is weekly support crossing at .10231.
The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it
consolidated some of the decline off last week’s high. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this
spring’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-April rally crossing
at 94.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 98.24 are needed to renew this month’s rally. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 98.24. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level
of this spring’s decline crossing at 98.61. First support is this month’s low
crossing at 95.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
October-April rally crossing at 94.59.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below
the 20-day moving average crossing at .12607. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at .12607 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September
renews the decline off this month’s high, the 50% retracement level of the
March-June rally crossing at .12404 is the next downside target. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at .12653. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at .12737. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
.12416. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-June rally
crossing at .12404.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
August gold closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1600.60 are needed to temper the bearish
outlook. If August extends the decline off this month’s high, May’s low
crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1600.60. Second resistance is reaction high crossing
at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second
support is May’s low crossing at 1529.30.
September silver closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close set the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this
month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 24.689 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.097 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 28.097. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.135.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 26.105. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 24.689.
September copper closed sharply higher on Friday and above the previous
reaction high crossing at 348.10 confirming that the short-term downtrend has
ended. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September resumes this spring’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the
October-February rally crossing at 320.07 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 351.65. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 354.30. First support is this month’s low crossing at
325.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-February
rally crossing at 320.07.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
September coffee close higher on Friday as it extends this month’s rally.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extend this
month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 18.44 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.81 would temper the
near-term friendly outlook.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends this week’s rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, May’s high
crossing at 23.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 21.84 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
October sugar closed higher on Friday and the high-range close set the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October
extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of this spring’s decline
crossing at 21.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 20.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
October cotton closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 70.19 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. Support came from
today’s acreage report where the USDA estimated planted cotton acres at 12.64
million acres verse trade expectations of 13.00 million acres. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and
the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, June’s low crossing
at 65.00 is the next downside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
September Corn closed up 1 1/4-cents at 6.27 1/2.
September corn closed higher on Friday but well off session highs due to end
of month, end of quarter profit taking. This morning’s grain stocks and acreage
reports were within trade expectations. The USDA estimated June 1 corn stocks
at 3.148 billion bushels, which was below the average trade estimate at 3.182
billion. The stocks report off set an initial bearish response to USDA’s
acreage estimate of 96.405 million acres. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Traders will
now focus on weather and extended weather forecast for near-term direction.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends
this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing
at 6.68 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 5.57 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 6.49 1/4. Second resistance is the
75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 6.68 3/4. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at5.86 1/2. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 1/4.
September wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 7.58 1/2.
September wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended this month’s rally.
The USDA estimated June 1 wheat stocks at 743 million bushels, which was above
the average trade guess of 726 million. All wheat acres came in at 56.017
million acres, which was below the average trade guess of 56.851 million. Hard
red spring wheat acres came in at 11.995 million, which was below the trade
estimate of 12.656 million. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally,
the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 7.85 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 3/4 are
needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 7.63 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of
the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 7.85. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 7.10 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 6.75 3/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up 4-cents at 7.56.
September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 50%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 7.98 1/2 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.93 1/4
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 7.66 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement
level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 7.98 1/2. First support is Monday’s
gap crossing at 7.08 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 6.93 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 8.44 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended this
month’s rally following a supportive USDA acreage report. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session
begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the
2011-2012-decline crossing at 8 58 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 8.00 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 8.50 1/4. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 8
58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.00 1/2. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.74 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
September soybeans closed up 32 3/4-cents at 14.50 1/4.
September soybeans closed higher on Friday as it extended this month’s
rally. The USDA estimated June 1 stocks at 667 million bushels, above the
average trade guess of 640 million. Intended planted acreage was estimated at
76.080 million acres and above the average trade guess of 75.575 million. Much
of the big increase in soybean acres is due to come from double-crop acres that
may or may not get planted, depending on rains in the southern half of the belt
the next 10 days to 2 weeks.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bearish hinting that a double top with May’s high might be forming.
If September extends this month’s rally, psychological resistance crossing at
15.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13.74 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 14.55. Second resistance is
psychological resistance crossing at 15.00. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 14.10 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13.74 3/4.
September soybean meal closed up $8.60 at $424.00.
September soybean meal closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a pause or short-term
top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
406.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September
extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 448 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 429.00. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 448.00. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 406.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 396.90.
September soybean oil closed up 131 -pts. at 52.59.
September soybean oil closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended this
month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level
of the April-June decline crossing at 53.15 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.24 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
52.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this spring’s decline
crossing at 53.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
50.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.24.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.87 at $94.77.
August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off May’s low.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August
extends the rally off May’s low, the 75% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 96.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 92.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 94.95. Second resistance is the
75% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 96.24. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.01. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 88.10.
August cattle closed up $1.12 at 120.45.
August cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends this week’s rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this
week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 121.20 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.20. Second resistance is
May’s high crossing at 122.40. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
115.40. Second support is April’s low crossing at 114.70.
August feeder cattle closed up $1.00 at $151.45.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this
month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Sunday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.61 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook. If August renews this month’s decline, weekly
support crossing at 144.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 151.61. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 155.11. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
146.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 144.70.
______________________________
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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WINNERS
CL.F14 CRUDE OIL Jan 2014 88.31 6.34 +7.73
HO.X12 HEATING OIL Nov 2012 2.7210 0.1601 +6.25
GI.Q12 S&P GSCI Aug 2012 601.25 34.75 +6.13
CSI.Q12 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Aug 2012 2.335 0.115 +5.17
HG.U12 COPPER Sep 2012 3.4965 0.1650 +4.95
RB.N12 RBOB GASOLINE Jul 2012 2.7272 0.1130 +4.32
NG.V12 NATURAL GAS Oct 2012 2.887 0.095 +3.40
ND.Z12 NASDAQ 100 INDEX Dec 2012 2603.25 82.50 +3.27
YK.N12 SOYBEAN (MINI) Jul 2012 1512.75 46.75 +3.18
S.N12 SOYBEANS Jul 2012 1512.75 46.75 +3.18
LOSERS
BCX.Q12 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Aug 2012 39.50 -3.00 -7.06
RR.U12 ROUGH RICE Sep 2012 14.490 -0.415 -2.79
LB.N12 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Jul 2012 273.4 -1.5 -0.55
DA.N12 MILK CLASS III Jul 2012 16.87 -0.07 -0.41
LH.N12 LEAN HOGS Jul 2012 96.625 -0.100 -0.10
ED.M17 EURODOLLAR Jun 2017 97.915 -0.075 -0.08
Y5.Z12 5 YEAR EURODOLLAR BUNDLE Dec 2012 98.8690 -0.0273 -0.03
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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WINNERS
CCMO CC MEDIA HOLDINGS 5.90 2.32 +64.80
AMPE AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS 5.0600 1.1200 +28.43
STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS 27.0525 5.2925 +24.32
SWHC SMITH & WESSON HOLDINGS 8.309 1.419 +20.60
AZZ AZZ 61.28 9.96 +19.41
TREE TREE.COM 11.42 1.66 +17.01
VCLK VALUECLICK 16.40 2.30 +16.31
TAOIF TAG OIL 7.1500 0.9650 +15.60
TAO TAG OIL LTD 7.38 0.99 +15.49
TAHO TAHOE RESOURCES 13.88 1.86 +15.47
LOSERS
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD 7.53 -1.93 -20.40
RIMM RESEARCH IN MOTION 7.38 -1.75 -19.17
HOD HB NYMEX CL BEAR 6.96 -1.35 -16.25
STBMY ST BARBARA 8.75 -1.65 -15.87
CAMP CALAMP 7.33 -1.07 -12.74
RSKIA GEORGE RISK INDUSTRIES 5.30 -0.68 -11.37
UHB POWERSHARES S&P 500 HIGH BETA 17.75 -2.18 -10.92
SUPN SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS 9.30 -1.00 -9.71
NKE NIKE 87.741 -9.149 -9.44
SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ 46.96 -4.78 -9.24
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