Weekly Dividend Channel Newsletter 29/11/2013

Dividend Channel
Weekly Newsletter
Weekly DividendRank Toplists
Each week at Dividend Channel, we screen through our coverage universe of dividend paying stocks, and we look at a variety of data — dividend yield, book value, quarterly earnings — and compare it to the stock’s trading data to come up with certain calculations about profitability and about the stock’s valuation (whether we think it looks ”cheap” or ”expensive”).

History has shown that the bulk of the stock market’s returns are delivered by dividends, and so we pay special attention to dividend history. And of course, only consistently profitable companies can afford to keep paying dividends, so profitability is of critical importance. Dividend investors should be most interested in researching the strongest most profitable companies, that also happen to be trading at an attractive valuation — maybe there is a company-specific reason causing the stock to be ”cheap” or maybe the entire sector is taking a hit, but whatever the reason, we think there is great value in ranking our coverage universe weekly using our proprietary DividendRank formula, and sharing those lists with our subscribers, neatly divided into 17 sectors/categories.

These are the stocks our DividendRank system has identified as the top most ”interesting” … this is meant purely as a research tool to generate ideas that merit further research. We’d love to include even more, but have an email size limit — however, our premium service has no limitation and there we provide more data like ex-date, and more categories (including our S.A.F.E. list and our list of top ranked stocks with recent insider buying).

 

Business Services & Equipment

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 VVI Q 0.40 1.49% 
#2 PAYX Q 1.40 3.21% 
#3 HCSG Q 0.68 2.32% 
#4 RHI Q 0.64 1.67% 
#5 ROL Q 0.36 1.28% 
#6 MGRC Q 0.96 2.46% 
#7 EEI S 0.48 4.45% 
#8 EFX Q 0.88 1.31% 
#9 CTAS A 0.77 1.39% 
#10 CASS Q 0.80 1.29% 
#11 CDI Q 0.52 3.33% 
#12 AZZ Q 0.56 1.16% 
#13 MAN S 0.92 1.15% 
#14 SGK Q 0.32 2.15% 
#15 TYC Q 0.64 1.69% 
 

 

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Construction

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 ELRC Q 0.80 3.80% 
#2 DE Q 2.04 2.44% 
#3 CAT Q 2.40 2.84% 
#4 URS Q 0.84 1.63% 
#5 TRN Q 0.60 1.16% 
#6 PHM Q 0.20 1.07% 
#7 TTC Q 0.56 0.92% 
#8 AGCO Q 0.40 0.69% 
#9 MTW A 0.08 0.40% 
#10 GVA Q 0.52 1.65% 
#11 RYL Q 0.12 0.31% 
#12 TWIN Q 0.36 1.26% 
#13 KBH Q 0.10 0.56% 
#14 LNN Q 0.52 0.69% 
#15 ASTE Q 0.40 1.11% 
 

Consumer Goods

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 EDUC Q 0.32 10.60% 
#2 BWL.A Q 0.66 4.70% 
#3 FUN Q 2.80 5.67% 
#4 UG S 1.00 3.87% 
#5 LANC Q 1.76 2.01% 
#6 EVI S 0.40 11.20% 
#7 GLDC Q 0.12 3.12% 
#8 KO Q 1.12 2.79% 
#9 RMCF Q 0.44 3.29% 
#10 K Q 1.84 3.03% 
#11 RAI Q 2.52 4.99% 
#12 KMB Q 3.24 3.00% 
#13 WMT Q 1.88 2.33% 
#14 RGR Q 2.32 3.02% 
#15 GIS Q 1.52 3.01% 
 

Consumer Services

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 HRB Q 0.80 2.85% 
#2 MATW Q 0.44 1.05% 
#3 SCI Q 0.28 1.54% 
#4 STEI Q 0.18 1.36% 
#5 RGS Q 0.24 1.49% 
#6 DV S 0.34 0.97% 
#7 MNRO Q 0.44 0.84% 
#8 BID Q 0.40 0.78% 
 

 

SPONSORED AREA

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A huge shake-up is about to rock the dividend stock universe and it could make or break your portfolio in the months ahead. Most investors won’t be prepared to deal with the aftershock. Don’t be the next victim!

My brand-new FREE report reveals 6 steps you should take immediately to protect your portfolio…and names 5 stocks that are perfectly positioned to hand investors huge gains in the months ahead.

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Energy

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 ESV Q 3.00 5.03% 
#2 EEP Q 2.17 7.25% 
#3 TOT Q 3.14 5.18% 
#4 COP Q 2.76 3.81% 
#5 BPL Q 4.30 6.34% 
#6 XCO Q 0.20 3.79% 
#7 WMB Q 1.52 4.33% 
#8 CVX Q 4.00 3.27% 
#9 HP Q 2.00 2.59% 
#10 OXY Q 2.56 2.69% 
#11 PGH M 0.48 7.72% 
#12 BP Q 2.28 4.87% 
#13 TRP Q 1.84 4.16% 
#14 RES Q 0.40 2.26% 
#15 NE Q 1.00 2.61% 
 

Financial

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 MCI Q 1.20 8.26% 
#2 KINS Q 0.16 2.67% 
#3 AB Q 1.60 7.28% 
#4 BLX Q 1.20 4.49% 
#5 CCNE Q 0.66 3.31% 
#6 PWOD Q 1.88 3.61% 
#7 FFBC Q 0.60 3.63% 
#8 WFC Q 1.20 2.72% 
#9 LCNB Q 0.64 3.61% 
#10 ACNB Q 0.76 4.23% 
#11 MCY Q 2.46 5.14% 
#12 RY Q 2.68 4.03% 
#13 TRV Q 2.00 2.20% 
#14 TRMK Q 0.92 3.28% 
#15 BNS Q 2.48 4.02% 
 

Healthcare

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 NHC Q 1.28 2.32% 
#2 KEQU Q 0.44 2.45% 
#3 BAX Q 1.96 2.88% 
#4 CAH Q 1.21 1.88% 
#5 PDLI Q 0.60 6.22% 
#6 BDX Q 2.18 2.01% 
#7 TEVA Q 1.30 3.19% 
#8 OMI Q 0.96 2.52% 
#9 LLY Q 1.96 3.90% 
#10 NVS A 2.43 3.09% 
#11 MRK Q 1.76 3.53% 
#12 PMD Q 0.60 4.38% 
#13 JNJ Q 2.64 2.78% 
#14 PFE Q 0.96 3.02% 
#15 AMGN Q 1.88 1.66% 
 

 

SPONSORED AREA

The Dividend Stock Bombshell of 2014

A huge shake-up is about to rock the dividend stock universe and it could make or break your portfolio in the months ahead. Most investors won’t be prepared to deal with the aftershock. Don’t be the next victim!

My brand-new FREE report reveals 6 steps you should take immediately to protect your portfolio…and names 5 stocks that are perfectly positioned to hand investors huge gains in the months ahead.

You can read it FREE here.

Industrial

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 AP Q 0.72 3.90% 
#2 OLN Q 0.80 3.24% 
#3 RTN Q 2.20 2.47% 
#4 HRS Q 1.68 2.60% 
#5 NOC Q 2.44 2.15% 
#6 CR Q 1.20 1.92% 
#7 GD Q 2.24 2.43% 
#8 DOV Q 1.50 1.66% 
#9 VAL Q 1.04 1.48% 
#10 NEU Q 4.40 1.36% 
#11 ARG Q 1.92 1.75% 
#12 CBT Q 0.80 1.65% 
#13 UTX Q 2.36 2.12% 
#14 RPM Q 0.96 2.43% 
#15 ITW Q 1.68 2.12% 
 

Manufacturing

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 IEP Q 5.00 4.23% 
#2 CRWS Q 0.32 4.01% 
#3 JCS Q 0.64 5.59% 
#4 LEG Q 1.20 3.99% 
#5 THO Q 0.92 1.70% 
#6 MGA Q 1.28 1.57% 
#7 QCOM Q 1.40 1.91% 
#8 PII Q 1.68 1.26% 
#9 CMI Q 2.50 1.89% 
#10 VFC Q 4.20 1.79% 
#11 HON Q 1.80 2.03% 
#12 F Q 0.40 2.35% 
#13 DFZ Q 0.36 1.88% 
#14 CTB Q 0.42 1.72% 
#15 FLXS Q 0.60 2.17% 
 

Materials

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 POT Q 1.40 4.48% 
#2 IP Q 1.40 3.00% 
#3 NWL Q 0.60 1.98% 
#4 POPE Q 2.20 3.32% 
#5 SMG Q 1.75 2.99% 
#6 DOW Q 1.28 3.28% 
#7 SON Q 1.24 3.09% 
#8 GLT Q 0.40 1.46% 
#9 BMS Q 1.04 2.67% 
#10 TNH Q 8.08 5.19% 
#11 UFS Q 2.20 2.54% 
#12 MYE Q 0.36 1.78% 
#13 GEF Q 1.68 3.07% 
#14 CSL Q 0.88 1.20% 
#15 ALCO Q 0.48 1.25% 
 

 

SPONSORED AREA

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Media

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 CRRC Q 0.84 4.53% 
#2 MDP Q 1.63 3.07% 
#3 CSS Q 0.60 1.95% 
#4 HHS Q 0.34 4.29% 
#5 TRI Q 1.30 3.48% 
#6 GCI Q 0.80 2.96% 
#7 VCI Q 1.24 4.25% 
#8 VALU Q 0.60 6.07% 
#9 OMC Q 1.60 2.24% 
#10 BLC Q 0.32 2.34% 
#11 DLX Q 1.00 2.00% 
#12 JW.A Q 1.00 1.99% 
#13 MHFI Q 1.12 1.51% 
#14 CCZ Q 1.58 3.88% 
#15 IPG Q 0.30 1.73% 
 

Metals & Mining

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 FCX Q 1.25 3.61% 
#2 NEM Q 0.80 3.25% 
#3 TCK S 0.90 3.78% 
#4 PAAS Q 0.50 4.93% 
#5 AEM Q 0.88 3.26% 
#6 CLV Q 1.75 7.96% 
#7 SLGN Q 0.56 1.20% 
#8 BLL Q 0.52 1.04% 
#9 GG M 0.60 2.69% 
#10 SVM Q 0.10 3.98% 
#11 RGLD Q 0.84 1.88% 
#12 KALU Q 1.20 1.78% 
#13 ACO Q 0.80 2.58% 
#14 WOR Q 0.60 1.44% 
#15 SYNL A 0.26 1.60% 
 

Real Estate

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 GTY Q 0.80 4.33% 
#2 DX Q 1.08 12.88% 
#3 FUR Q 0.65 5.58% 
#4 RYN Q 1.96 4.39% 
#5 BPO Q 0.56 2.93% 
#6 PSA Q 5.60 3.64% 
#7 OLP Q 1.40 6.80% 
#8 HCP Q 2.10 5.62% 
#9 NHI Q 2.94 4.95% 
#10 VNO Q 2.92 3.28% 
#11 CMO Q 1.24 10.26% 
#12 PEI Q 0.80 4.43% 
#13 WRI Q 1.22 4.23% 
#14 UMH Q 0.72 7.48% 
#15 MNR Q 0.60 6.37% 
 

 

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Technology

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 ASMI A 5.60 16.78% 
#2 CCUR Q 0.48 6.38% 
#3 AMSWA Q 0.40 4.19% 
#4 INTC Q 0.90 3.77% 
#5 MOCO Q 0.44 3.18% 
#6 MSFT Q 1.12 2.98% 
#7 MXIM Q 1.04 3.65% 
#8 CSPI Q 0.40 4.91% 
#9 ADI Q 1.36 2.80% 
#10 ESP Q 1.00 3.06% 
#11 WDC Q 1.20 1.58% 
#12 HPQ Q 0.58 2.12% 
#13 TXN Q 1.20 2.83% 
#14 KLAC Q 1.80 2.82% 
#15 ESIO Q 0.32 3.09% 
 

Transportation

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 CSX Q 0.60 2.20% 
#2 BRS Q 1.00 1.25% 
#3 UNP Q 3.16 1.95% 
#4 NSC Q 2.08 2.38% 
#5 EXPD S 0.60 1.38% 
#6 R Q 1.36 1.96% 
#7 ISH Q 1.00 3.54% 
#8 AIRT A 0.30 2.67% 
#9 CNI Q 0.86 0.77% 
#10 ALK Q 0.80 1.03% 
#11 MATX Q 0.64 2.56% 
#12 LUV Q 0.16 0.85% 
#13 JBHT Q 0.60 0.81% 
#14 SKYW Q 0.16 0.94% 
#15 HTLD Q 0.08 0.44% 
 

Travel & Entertainment

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 MCS Q 0.34 2.37% 
#2 CCL Q 1.00 2.77% 
#3 MCD Q 3.24 3.34% 
#4 EAT Q 0.96 2.05% 
#5 CBRL Q 3.00 2.76% 
#6 IGT Q 0.44 2.54% 
#7 ARKR Q 1.00 4.73% 
#8 TWX Q 1.15 1.76% 
#9 FRS Q 0.72 3.02% 
#10 HOT A 1.35 1.82% 
#11 WEN Q 0.20 2.31% 
#12 CEC Q 1.08 2.27% 
#13 BOBE Q 1.24 2.23% 
#14 CHDN A 0.87 0.98% 
 

 

SPONSORED AREA

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Utilities

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 RGCO Q 0.74 3.94% 
#2 WR Q 1.36 4.32% 
#3 ATNI Q 1.08 1.93% 
#4 EDE Q 1.02 4.50% 
#5 PNW Q 2.27 4.28% 
#6 ED Q 2.46 4.46% 
#7 EE Q 1.06 2.98% 
#8 CTWS Q 0.99 2.88% 
#9 LNT Q 1.88 3.65% 
#10 WEC Q 1.53 3.67% 
#11 CNL Q 1.45 3.18% 
#12 NEE Q 2.64 3.11% 
#13 TEG Q 2.72 5.07% 
#14 SO Q 2.03 5.00% 
#15 EGAS M 0.54 6.37% 
 


*(updated 9 hours, 16 minutes ago) Yield calculations vary and may not be reliable nor comparable. Not all publicly traded securities are ranked; data may be incorrect or out of date. Rankings are for informational purposes only and do not constitute advice. Full disclaimer

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Weekly Metals Channel Newsletter 29/11/2013

Metals Channel
Newsletter
Weekly DividendRank Metals Toplists & Metals ETF Movers

Metals Prices

Looking at metals prices this week, gold moved lower, with spot prices currently at $1244.55/ounce, down $1.19 (-0.1%) compared to $1245.74 on 11/21. Silver is currently trading at $19.72/ounce, down $0.30 (-1.5%) from $20.02 on 11/21. And turning to copper, the current spot price of $3.23/pound, has copper up $0.03 from $3.20 on 11/21, a week over week gain of +0.9%.

Metals ETF Movers

The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) outperformed other Metals ETFs this week, off about 0.7%. Components of that ETF showing particular strength this week include shares of AK Steel Holding (AKS), up about 7.5% and shares of Horsehead Holding (ZINC), up about 6.3% on the week.

And underperforming other Metals ETFs this week is the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), down about 5.3% this week. Among components of that ETF with the weakest showing for the week were shares of Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI.CA), lower by about 15%, and shares of Perseus Mining (PRU.CA), lower by about 12.1% on the week.

Other ETF standouts this week include the Silver Miners ETF (SIL), lower by about 2% but still outperforming other ETFs for the week. And the Global Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio (PSAU) was an underperformer, falling about 4.7% this week.

 

 

DividendRank Metals Toplist

At sister site Dividend Channel, we screen through our coverage universe of dividend paying stocks each week, and we look at a variety of data — dividend yield, book value, quarterly earnings — and compare it to the stock’s trading data to come up with certain calculations about profitability and about the stock’s valuation (whether we think it looks ”cheap” or ”expensive”).

History has shown that the bulk of the stock market’s returns are delivered by dividends, and so we pay special attention to dividend history. And of course, only consistently profitable companies can afford to keep paying dividends, so profitability is of critical importance. Dividend investors should be most interested in researching the strongest most profitable companies, that also happen to be trading at an attractive valuation — maybe there is a company-specific reason causing the stock to be ”cheap” or maybe the entire sector is taking a hit, but whatever the reason, we think there is great value in ranking the Metals Channel coverage universe weekly using our proprietary DividendRank formula, and sharing the list of the week’s top ranked metals stocks with our subscribers.

These are the metals stocks our DividendRank system has identified as the top most ”interesting” in the Metals and Mining category … this is meant purely as a research tool to generate ideas that merit further research.

 

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Metals & Mining

DividendRank Symbol Dividend Recent Yield* 
#1 FCX Q 1.25 3.61% 
#2 NEM Q 0.80 3.25% 
#3 TCK S 0.90 3.78% 
#4 PAAS Q 0.50 4.93% 
#5 AEM Q 0.88 3.26% 
#6 CLV Q 1.75 7.96% 
#7 SLGN Q 0.56 1.20% 
#8 BLL Q 0.52 1.04% 
#9 GG M 0.60 2.69% 
#10 SVM Q 0.10 3.98% 
#11 RGLD Q 0.84 1.88% 
#12 KALU Q 1.20 1.78% 
#13 ACO Q 0.80 2.58% 
#14 WOR Q 0.60 1.44% 
#15 SYNL A 0.26 1.60% 


*(updated 10 hours, 15 minutes ago) Yield calculations vary and may not be reliable nor comparable. Not all publicly traded securities are ranked; data may be incorrect or out of date. Rankings are for informational purposes only and do not constitute advice. Full disclaimer

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Quartz Weekend Brief—Bitcoin madness, 23andMe, Thai drone journalism, Russia’s “sistema”

Quartz - qz.com
Daily Brief sponsored by Salesforce

There is small poetry in the fact that this week, when bitcoin burst through the $1,000 mark after quintupling in a month—proving beyond reasonable doubt that it is a bubble—the Netherlands, home of the very first bubble, had its debt downgraded.

Adrian Chen, a journalist who played a small and inadvertent part in kickstarting the bitcoin bubble two years ago, has blamed the media for blowing ever more air into it: “Tech blogs breathlessly track the price of bitcoin. Each new business that accepts bitcoin is heralded with the fanfare of a despot opening his country’s borders to a new, previously outlawed luxury.” In fact, notes economist Tyler Cowen, the past month’s explosion may have more to do with its growing use by wealthy Chinese to circumvent China’s strict capital controls. And if China’s getting in on it, speculators elsewhere are bound to conclude that the price of bitcoin can only keep rising.

When will the music stop? And more interestingly, how many more times will it start again? The ”second great bitcoin crash” has already happened, a fall from around $270 to $60 in April. Today that seems like small change. Will the third crash be the last? Dutch tulips are still bought and sold nearly four centuries after the tulip bubble, but will anyone be trading bitcoin a year from now?

In a wider sense, though, none of these questions matters. Bitcoin is to digital currencies as Napster was to music, argues The Economist—an experiment whose ultimate failure will pave the way for others to transform the industry. For now, suggests Chen, bitcoin is most interesting as a parable of human greed—and the crash, when it comes, “is going to be great.” Unless, of course, you’re holding a lot of bitcoin yourself.—Gideon Lichfield

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Five things on Quartz we especially liked

Personal genomics—the pros and cons. After the US Food and Drug Administration stopped 23andMe from selling its home genetic testing kit, Lukas Hartmann relates how an error by 23andMe made him think he was at risk of crippling muscular dystrophy, while Shaheen Pasha argues that a 23andMe test might have helped doctors diagnose her autoimmune disorder years earlier than they did.

The ideological battle inside the US Federal Reserve. Miles Kimball and Noah Smith explain how the firing of two officials at the Minneapolis Fed may—or may not—be symbolic of the gradual defeat at the Fed of the “freshwater” school of macroeconomics, which holds that recessions aren’t economic failures and monetary policy can’t be used to fight them.

How drones are shifting Thailand’s political discourse. Thai media, not known for their innovation, have been flying cameras mounted on small drones above anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok. Newley Purnell describes how the images of mass protest they have captured are making it harder for the government to dismiss the depth of public discontent.

Lessons from India for electronics recyclers. The big smelters that extract precious metals from old computers and TVs can cost $100 million to build, so only rich countries have them. Heather Timmons reports on an Indian company that has devised a smaller-scale operation, which can be replicated across other emerging markets.

Proof that “big data” is an overused corporate buzzword. John McDuling tots up the number of investor presentations and earnings calls that used the phrase “big data” in 2013 and finds that it has grown 43% over 2012—but what a lot of companies call “big data” really isn’t that big.

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

The 40-year decline of the American job. Was the US’s age of prosperity, 1947-1974, a one-off anomaly? In a detailed essay in the American Prospect, Harold Meyerson picks apart the “globalization, deunionization, financialization, Wal-Martization, robotization” that have collectively caused the erosion of the American middle class’s spending power and job security.

How corruption works in Russia. In everything from tax-dodging to draft-dodging, the country operates on a kind of perverse social contract known simply as sistema, the system, that ingrains mistrust and dishonesty in all its players. In the London Review of Books, Peter Pomerantsev describes how sistema functions on a daily basis.

What made Poland into Europe’s darling. In contrast to its former Soviet overlord—and indeed its new EU neighbors—Poland has been enjoying an economic transformation. Stephan Faris in BusinessWeek explains how the country’s boom is the result partly of wise economic reforms carried out 20 years ago, and partly blind good luck.

Why the Pentagon loses billions of dollars a year. The second in a series of Reuters investigations into US Defense Department accounting paints a picture of a bureaucratic behemoth that simply doesn’t know what it has and can’t keep track of what it spends.

Would you torture a robot? Experiments have shown that people form strong attachments to robots that mimic human or animal feeling, even when they know full well it’s fake. Richard Fisher for the BBC looks into the ethical dilemmas that the treatment of robots is starting to raise—and whether robots that can fool us into thinking they can feel should even be built.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, missing Pentagon receipts and treatises on robot ethics to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 29/11/2013

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Friday, November 29, 2013

Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future has gained 3 points to 16122. The US Dollar Index eased 0.049 points to 80.534. Gold is higher 1.26 dollars to 1244.57. Silver has gained 0.1503 dollars to 19.8403. The Dow Industrials moved higher by 24.53 points, at 16097.33, while the S&P 500 advanced 4.48 points, last seen at 1807.23. The Nasdaq Composite rose 26.88 points to 4044.63. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
This Pioneering Chart Pattern Is Still One Of The Best
Friday Nov 29th

Happy Thanksgiving From INO.com
Thursday Nov 28th

Apple and China Mobile – YES!
Wednesday Nov 27th

Key Events for Friday

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 982.7K)

Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 1376.5K)

Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 618.1K)

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early after Thanksgiving

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock

9:00 AM ET. Nov US Manufacturing PMI

10:00 AM ET. Sept Construction Spending – Construction Put in Place

New Construction (previous +0.6%)

Residential Construction

10:00 AM ET. Oct Construction Spending – Construction Put in Place

New Construction (previous +0.6%)

Residential Construction

10:00 AM ET. Nov ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

Manufacturing PMI (previous 56.4)

Prices Index (previous 55.5)

Employment Index (previous 53.2)

Inventories (previous 52.5)

New Orders Index (previous 60.6)

Production Index (previous 60.8)

11:00 AM ET. Nov Global Manufacturing PMI

1:00 PM ET. Nov Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator

DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 49.7)


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 80.534 -0.049 -0.06%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 21.72 +0.03 +0.14%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.05770 -0.00190 -0.18%
Euro/US Dollar 1.36020 -0.00050 -0.04%
JAPANESE YEN Dec 2013 0.009776 -0.000001 -0.01%
SWISS FRANC Dec 2013 1.1064 +0.0029 +0.26%

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the November 1st gap crossing at 80.45 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October’s low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 82.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 82.27. First support is the reaction low crossing at 80.62. Second support is the November 1st gap crossing at 80.45.

The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 137.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 134.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 136.23. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.02. Second support is November’s low crossing at 133.00.

The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday’s breakout above the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s trading range breakout, monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6076 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.6359. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6076. Second support is November’s low crossing at 1.5840.

The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at .11156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10960 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11078. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .11156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10960. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10891.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall’s decline, July’s low crossing at 93.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.06. Second resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 95.73. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 94.07. Second support is July’s low crossing at 93.60.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, May’s low crossing at .9710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10007 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9905. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10007. First support is the overnight low crossing at .9753. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9710.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Jan 2014 92.58 +0.33 +0.36%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Jan 2014 3.0413 +0.0063 +0.21%
NATURAL GAS Jan 2014 3.916 -0.019 -0.48%
RBOB GASOLINE Jan 2014 2.6902 -0.0016 -0.06%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY 54.2380 -0.3415 -0.63%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 58.02 -0.12 -0.20%

ENERGIES

January Nymex crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.18 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday’s high crossing at 95.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 95.63. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 98.96. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 91.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.18.

January heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If January extends the rally off this month’s low, October’s high crossing at 306.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 305.45. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 306.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.73.

January unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 277.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 274.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 277.76. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 267.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.61.

January Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month’s rally, October’s high crossing at 4.092 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.687 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.943. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 4.092. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.776. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.687.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Mar 2014 2794 +28 +1.01%
COFFEE Mar 2014 108.25 +0.15 +0.14%
ORANGE JUICE-A Jan 2014 139.05 +0.15 +0.11%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 58.3800 -0.2504 -0.43%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 46.36 +0.32 +0.74%

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.53 would temper the friendly outlook. If March extends this month’s rally, October’s high crossing at 12.10 is the next upside target.

March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 28.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October’s high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday’s high crossing at 79.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2013 rally crossing at 74.62 is the next downside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Mar 2014 426.50 +1.75 +0.41%
OATS Mar 2014 329.25 -6.00 -1.83%
WHEAT Mar 2014 663.50 +7.50 +1.13%
TEUCRIUM CORN 31.08 +0.05 +0.16%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 44.7250 -0.3550 -0.79%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 5.950 +0.029 +0.48%
SOYBEANS Jan 2014 1320.00 -9.25 -0.70%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Jan 2014 1320.00 -9.25 -0.70%
SOYBEAN MEAL Jan 2014 429.6 -2.3 -0.53%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 23.3600 -0.1300 -0.56%

GRAINS

Grain futures will begin trading at 9:30 AM CST. this morning. Here is a recap of Wednesday’s trade.

March Corn closed up 1 3/4-cents at 4.26 1/2.

March corn closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.33 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.49 1/2 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. If March renews the decline off August’s high, weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.49 1/2. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

March wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 6.63 1/2.

March wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.61 1/4 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.70 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October’s high, August’s low crossing at 6.47 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 6.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.70 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.52. Second support is August’s low crossing at 6.47 3/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8-cents at 7.06 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this fall’s decline, weekly support crossing at 6.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 7.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 3/4. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 6.94 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.70.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/2-cent at 7.06 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall’s decline, monthly support crossing at 6.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.37 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.02 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 6.90.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

January soybeans closed down 3 1/4-cents at 13.20.

January soybeans closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.89 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 13.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 13.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.89 1/2. Second resistance is this month’s low crossing at 12.47.

January soybean meal closed down $2.30 at 429.60.

January soybean meal posted a downside reversal on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month’s rally, September’s high crossing at 446.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 408.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 440.00. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 446.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 415.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 408.80.

January soybean oil closed down 35 pts. at 40.25.

January soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week’s decline, last week’s low crossing at 40.70 is the next downside target. If January renews last week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 42.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 42.50. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 42.40. First support is last week’s low crossing at 40.70. Second support is October’s low crossing at 39.53.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 16097.33 +24.53 +0.15%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 4044.63 +26.88 +0.66%
S&P 500 CASH 1807.23 +4.48 +0.25%
SPDR S&P 500 181.14 +0.46 +0.25%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 11.66 -0.33 -2.84%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 113.49 +0.67 +0.59%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3389.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3480.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3389.26. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3354.00.

The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If December extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1780.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1809.70. Second resistance is unknown with December trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1795.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1780.45.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2014 130.59375 -0.09375 -0.07%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.605 -0.065 -0.13%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014 120.875000 -0.031250 -0.03%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2014 138.81250 -0.15625 -0.11%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.82 -0.03 -0.12%

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidated some of the rally off last week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October’s high, September’s low crossing at 128-11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131-26. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 128-31. Second support is September’s low crossing at 128-11.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Jan 2014 165.325 +0.950 +0.57%
LEAN HOGS Feb 2014 90.475 +0.075 +0.08%
LIVE CATTLE Feb 2014 134.100 +1.075 +0.80%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 27.7596 +0.1996 +0.72%

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed up $0.08 at $90.48.

February hog closed higher on Wednesday but remains below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off October’s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-October rally crossing at 88.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.85. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.35. First support is the reaction low crossing at 89.55. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-October rally crossing at 88.44.

February cattle closed up $1.07 at 134.10.

February cattle closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.45 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 135.40 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off October’s high, the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 131.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 134.90. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 135.40. First support is last week’s low crossing at 131.27. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 131.11.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.95 at $165.32.

January Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 163.98 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If January renews the decline off October’s high, the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 161.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 166.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 167.20. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 162.05. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 161.16.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Feb 2014 1249.7 +5.3 +0.43%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 119.46 -0.36 -0.30%
SILVER Mar 2014 19.975 +0.230 +1.16%
PALLADIUM Mar 2014 723.35 +0.10 +0.01%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 44.78 -0.74 -1.66%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 40.270 -0.260 -0.65%

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1218.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1255.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.80. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1226.40. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1218.40.

January silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 19.423 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.700 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.064. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.700. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 19.423. Second support is June’s low crossing at 18.615.

January copper was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January renews the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 312.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 328.10. First support is November’s low crossing at 313.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 312.66.


 

Top Stocks
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. BAC BANK of AMERICA CORP 15.82 -0.06 -0.38% 72,230,577 +90    Entry Signal
2. ZNGA ZYNGA 4.405 -0.055 -1.25% 24,587,046 +100    Entry Signal
3. MSFT MICROSOFT 37.59 +0.24 +0.64% 23,662,705 +90    Entry Signal
4. HIMX HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES 10.385 +0.955 +9.20% 14,035,379 +100    Entry Signal
5. ORCL ORACLE CORP 35.275 +0.345 +0.98% 14,005,646 +100    Entry Signal
6. S SPRINT 8.365 +0.215 +2.57% 13,454,905 +100    Entry Signal
7. C CITIGROUP 53.0699 +0.0599 +0.11% 12,250,331 +90    Entry Signal
8. WFC WELLS FARGO 44.29 -0.02 -0.05% 12,020,836 +90    Entry Signal
9. MRK MERCK 49.855 +0.275 +0.55% 10,491,429 +100    Entry Signal
10. JPM JP MORGAN CHASE 57.49 +0.32 +0.56% 10,356,208 +90    Entry Signal
Top Futures
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. 6E.Z13.E EURO FX Dec 2013 1.3612 +0.0014 +0.10% 63,584 +100    Entry Signal
2. 6B.Z13.E BRITISH POUND Dec 2013 1.6344 +0.0014 +0.09% 35,915 +100    Entry Signal
3. 6S.Z13.E SWISS FRANC Dec 2013 1.1064 +0.0029 +0.26% 11,923 +100    Entry Signal
4. NKD.Z13.E NIKKEI 225 INDEX $ INDEX Dec 2013 15695 -30 -0.19% 6,238 +100    Entry Signal
5. M6E.Z13.E E-MICRO EUR/USD Dec 2013 1.3611 +0.0014 +0.10% 2,030 +100    Entry Signal
6. M6B.Z13.E E-MICRO GBP/USD Dec 2013 1.6345 +0.0006 +0.04% 973 +100    Entry Signal
7. E7.Z13.E EURO FX (E-MINI) Dec 2013 1.3610 +0.0011 +0.08% 956 +100    Entry Signal
8. BZ.G14.E CRUDE OIL BRENT LAST DAY Feb 2014 110.42 -0.04 -0.04% 913 +100    Entry Signal
9. 6E.H14.E EURO FX Mar 2014 1.3609 +0.0005 +0.04% 590 +100    Entry Signal
10. BZ.F14.E CRUDE OIL BRENT LAST DAY Jan 2014 110.92 +0.03 +0.03% 603 +100    Entry Signal

A Few Trillion Reasons to Stay Bullish – 11/29/2013

Kevin Cook here to close the week for Steve…

The holidays are a good time to count your blessings and hopefully enjoy the fruits of your labor as an investor. It’s also a great time to review your portfolio strategies and reflect on the trends and drivers that got you here. I actually do this more often because I have to answer a basic question every month for my subscribers…

What’s driving the bull market and how far can it run? My list of 5 forces hasn’t changed since I first wrote of them in January:

1) Macro risk “off” (Europe, China, Washington) = Investing risk “on” (to the upside)

2) Economic growth is good enough and building momentum

3) The Fed remains steadfastly on the side of pro-growth and reflation

4) Corporations are producing record profits and balance sheets are strong

5) Cash is still trash and fund managers MUST chase and compete for stocks.

To this list, I would add a force that proves this isn’t all just theory: fund managers with trillions of dollars actually chasing and competing for stocks because of the first 5 forces. I see it proven every week when I look at the SEC institutional filings.

Bottom line: A correction could come at any time, but it will only make valuations even more attractive again – and probably pull more money from the sidelines and bonds. In short, stay long good stocks because this bull is far from over-valued territory. Maybe we’ll talk about that above S&P 1900.

Best,

Kevin Cook

Senior Stock Strategist

Zacks Investment Research

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 29/11/2013

MERCATO USA
Wall Street chiusa per festività (Thanksgiving Day)

MERCATI ASIATICI

Borsa di Tokyo in lieve calo, ma con un saldo mensile del +9,3%

Poco mosso il Nikkei 225 (-0,41%) che archivia l’ultima seduta della settimana a quota 15661,87 dopo che i prezzi sono scesi fino a ricoprire il gap lasciato aperto giovedì tra 15512 e 15605 punti. Si e’ trattato dunque di una seduta interlocutoria che non modifica il quadro grafico di fondo che vede l’indice impegnato nel recupero dei record annuali a 16000 circa. L’eventuale successo anche su questo ostacolo permetterebbe poi di ambire al test di 16400, sul lato alto del canale rialzista disegnato dai minimi di giugno. Fintanto che i prezzi si manterranno al di sopra di 14950, sara’ lecito credere nella realizzazione di tali attese. Sotto questa soglia scatterebbe invece un primo campanello d’allarme, preludio al test di area 14500. Movimenti fino a 14300 circa, media a 100 giorni e riferimento strategico in ottica temporale più estesa, potrebbero comunque essere ancora considerati un aggiustamento correttivo, una fisiologica pausa dopo la lunga corsa culminata sui recenti massimi. La violazione di quei livelli rischierebbe invece di anticipare ribassi ben piu’ ampi.

Poco sotto la parita’ il Topix che ha terminato la seduta a 1258,66 punti (-0,19%).  Sul versante macroeconomico Markit ha reso noto che l’Indice PMI manifatturiero Nomura/JMMA giapponese e’ salito in novembre a quota 55,1, sui livelli massimi da dicembre 2009, in crescita rispetto alla precedente rilevazione pari a 54,2 punti. L’indice si allontana dai 50 punti, indicando un ulteriore miglioramento delle performance del settore manifatturiero giapponese. Il Tasso di Disoccupazione giapponese e’ risultato ad ottobre pari a +4,0% in linea con il dato rilevato nel mese precedente ma lievemente superiore alle stime degli analisti che avevano previsto un tasso al +3,9%. In Giappone e’ stato reso noto che la spesa delle famiglie ha evidenziato, nel mese di novembre, un rialzo dello 0,9% su base annuale, evidenziando un rallentamento della crescita rispetto alla rilevazione precedente (+3,7%). Le aspettative degli economisti erano fissate su un incremento dello 0,9% a/a. Il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria giapponese ha comunicato questa mattina la lettura preliminare sulla Produzione Industriale di ottobre. Tale rilevazione si e’ attestata al +0,5% m/m deludendo le stime degli addetti ai lavori fissate su una crescita pari al 2,0% ma in netto miglioramento rispetto alla rilevazione precedente fissata su un -0,9%. Rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012 i livelli di produzione sono cresciuti del 4,7%.

Il Ministero degli Affari Interni e delle Comunicazioni giapponesi ha reso noto il dato relativo all’inflazione “core”, ovvero al netto dei cibi freschi. Nel mese di ottobre tale rilevazione ha fatto segnare un incremento dello 0,6% su base annuale (consensus +0,4%). Il dato totale sull’inflazione nazionale e’ risultato in crescita dell’1,1% in linea con le attese e con la rilevazione precedente. Il valore si sta progressivamente avvicinando all’obiettivo di inflazione del 2,0% fissato dalla Bank of Japan. La crescita dell’inflazione rappresenta l’ultimo segnale che l’allentamento monetario aggressivo da parte della Banca del Giappone stia contribuendo a spingere il Giappone fuori dalla deflazione che ha ostacolato l’economia per quasi due decenni. Sul fronte societario il settore finanziario fa un passo indietro: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial cede l’1,36%, Mizuho Financial lo 0,92%, Daiwa Securities l’1,49%. Contrastate le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Seoul registra un live calo dello 0,04%, Hong Kong cresce dello 0,26%. Sotto la parita’ la borsa di Shanghai, -0,06%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Borse europee positive, bene Madrid

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto l’ultima seduta dell’ottava in rialzo. Brilla in particolare Madrid (Ibex35 +0,6%) dopo che l’agenzia Standard & Poor’s ha migliorato l’outlook della Spagna a stabile da negativo. Sopra la parità anche l’Aex di Amsterdam (+0,10%) nonostante il downgrade del debito sovrano olandese ad AA+ da AAA da parte di Standard & Poor’s. I guadagni del Dax30 di Francoforte, del Cac40 di Parigi e del Ftse100 di Londra sono compresi tra lo 0,05% e lo 0,1%.Sul fronte societario denaro sul comparto bancario e sulle utility.

Tra i singoli titoli Banco Espirito Santo sale dello 0,3% in scia alle indiscrezioni circa una sua offerta di 1,3 miliardi di euro per l’acquisto della svizzera Bsi da Generali. Bnp Paribas avanza dello 0,5%. Ubs ha alzato il giudizio sull’istituto francese a buy. Eutelsat cede lo 0,1%. L’agenzia Moody’s ha tagliato il rating dell’azienda francese di telecomunicazioni satellitari a Baa3 da Baa2 con outlook stabile.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Borsa italiana sopra la parità. Ancora acquisti sui bancari

Il Ftse Mib segna +0,16%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,17%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,12%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,21%. Borse europee in leggero rialzo. Ieri i mercati americani sono rimasti chiusi per la festività del Giorno del Ringraziamento: riaprono oggi ma con chiusura anticipata alle 19 ora italiana. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in progresso dello 0,3% circa. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha chiuso a -0,41%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng ha fatto segnare +0,39%. Bancari positivi in avvio grazie alla flessione dello spread Btp-Bund in scia a quello Bonos-Bund dopo il miglioramento dell’outlook sulla Spagna da parte di S&P.

In evidenza Banca MPS (+2,2%) all’indomani dell’approvazione del piano industriale 2013-2017. In verde Atlantia (+1,4%) e Gemina (+1,8%) all’indomani dell’annuncio congiunto delle due società in base al quale la fusione sarà efficace dal 1° dicembre 2013. Positiva Autogrill (+0,8%) che ha siglato contratti per la gestione di punti vendita in 3 aeroporti in Indonesia:  stimati ricavi complessivi per circa 90 milioni di dollari nel periodo 2014-2018. Telecom Italia (+1,2% a 0,6955 euro) guadagna terreno: HSBC ha alzato il target price del titolo da 0,60 a 1,05 euro, con raccomandazione migliorata da “neutral” a “overweight” (sovrapesare rispetto al mercato/settore). Mediaset (-1,4%) debole in avvio di seduta. Gli analisti di Exane hanno deciso di ridurre il giudizio sul titolo da “neutral” ad “underperform” (farà peggio del mercato/settore).


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Finmeccanica segue da alcune settimane il tracciato della media mobile a 50 sedute, attualmente in area 5,30. La tenuta di questo riferimento e la successiva rottura a 5,50 circa della trend line disegnata dai top di metà ottobre permetterebbero di considerare terminata la pausa correttiva, lasciando spazi a nuovi rialzi in direzione della resistenza in area 5,96/6,00. Oltre area 6,00 diverrebbe poi probabile assistere ad un ulteriore allungo verso 6,86, per la copertura del gap ribassista del 28 luglio 2011 e verso area 7,00. Sotto 4,95, minimo di inizio mese, rischio di ampliamento della correzione in atto da ottobre verso obiettivi a 4,65 e 4,40.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire al superamento di 5,50 con stop sotto 5,20 euro e target a 6,86 euro.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 4,95 ed incrementare oltre 5,96 per i target a 6,86 e 7 euro.

Seconda seduta di rialzo consecutiva giovedi’ per Luxottica, salito fino a 39,15 euro (close di giornata a 39,02). Il titolo ha messo a segno un deciso rimbalzo dopo aver toccato con i minimi del 26 novembre a 37,30 la trend line crescente disegnata dai minimi di ottobre 2011. Se il titolo trovera’ la forza per superare prima la media mobile a 100 giorni, a 39,55 euro, poi la trend line che scende dal top di maggio, passante a 40,10, diverra’ probabile almeno il ritorno sul picco di maggio a 42,97. La figura disegnata dal top di maggio, una porzione di grafico compresa tra due linee convergenti, quella superiore la citata trend line passante a 40,10, quella inferiore congiungente i minimi di giugno e quelli di ottobre, passante a 36,75 euro, e’ un “wedge”, ovvero una pausa del trend principale, in atto dai minimi di meta’ 2011, al completamento della figura i prezzi potrebbero quindi dirigere non solo verso i massimi dell’anno ma arrivare anche a superarli per dirigere verso i 48 euro, limite superiore del canale che sale dai minimi di ottobre 2011. La violazione prima di 37,40, poi di area 36,75, negherebbero le possibilita’ di una evoluzione crescente, prospettando invece movimenti in area 32 almeno.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo attendere la rottura di 40,10 per intervenire con target a 43 circa, stop sotto i 39 euro.
Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere le posizioni con stop sotto i 37 euro, incrementare oltre 40,10 per il test di quota 43.

Prosegue la fase correttiva di Banco Desio Brianza a seguito dell’infruttuoso attacco alla resistenza rappresentata dal massimo di inizio 2013 a 2,3720 euro. Il movimento lateral-ribassista in forza da circa un mese e mezzo sembra però poter rappresentare una fase di consolidamento del rally visto nella prima metà di Ottobre in vista delle ripresa del rialzo. Prime indicazioni in tal senso oltre 2,30, prologo a un nuovo attacco ai 2,3720. Una vittoria confermata in chiusura di seduta oltre questo ultimo riferimento determinerebbe un netto miglioramento del quadro grafico di lungo periodo dato che a quel punto si aprirebbero spazi di ascesa fino sui 2,60/2,70 almeno, con obiettivo successivo sui top del 2012 poco sotto i 3,30. Discese sotto 2,10 negherebbero in modo perentorio lo scenario fin qui descritto, favorendo invece approfondimenti fino in area 1,80.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 2,30 per 2,37, stop sotto 2,24.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 2,3720 per 2,60 e 3,20, ridurre sotto 2,10 e uscire alla violazione di 1,80.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Venerdì 29 Novembre 2013
00:15 GIA Indice PMI manifatturiero nov;
00:30 GIA Consumi ott;
00:30 GIA Inflazione ott;
00:30 GIA Tasso disoccupazione ott;
00:50 GIA Produzione industriale (prelim.) ott;
08:00 GER Vendite al dettaglio;
08:45 FRA Consumi ott;
10:00 ITA Tasso disoccupazione (prelim.) ott;
10:30 GB Credito al consumo ott;
11:00 EUR Inflazione (flash) nov;
11:00 EUR Tasso disoccupazione ott;
11:00 ITA Inflazione (prelim.) nov;
12:00 ITA Indice prezzi alla produzione ott.


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HEADLINES
Autogrill: contratti per gestione punti vendita in 3 aeroporti indonesiani
Il Gruppo Autogrill (Milano: AGL IM) prosegue lo sviluppo in Asia ed entra in Indonesia aggiudicandosi tre contratti, della durata di cinque anni, per la gestione di sedici punti vendita, di cui 11 all’interno dell’aeroporto internazionale Ngurah Rai di Bali, due nell’hub Juanda di Surabaya e tre nello scalo Sepinggan di Balikpapan. Le attività saranno gestite da ATG Indonesia, la Newco costituita in joint venture tra la divisione HMSHost International e Taurus Gemilang, operatore locale di ristorazione aeroportuale. Si stima che, nel periodo 2014-2018, le concessioni genereranno ricavi complessivi per circa 90 milioni di dollari USA.

Atlantia: fusione con Gemina sarà efficace dal 1° dicembre 2013
Facendo seguito al comunicato stampa diffuso in data 20 novembre 2013, Gemina ed Atlantia informano che l’atto di fusione per incorporazione è stato iscritto nel Registro delle Imprese di Roma il 26 novembre 2013.I n data 28 novembre 2013 è stato rilasciato il provvedimento con il quale la Consob, ai sensi e per gli effetti dell’articolo 57, comma 1, lettera d) del Regolamento Emittenti, ha emesso il giudizio di equivalenza sul documento informativo redatto congiuntamente da Atlantia e Gemina nell’ambito dell’operazione di fusione (il “Documento Informativo”) e ne ha autorizzato la pubblicazione.La fusione sarà efficace dal 1° dicembre 2013. Fissati i termini di inizio e fine del periodo di esercizio dell’Opzione di Vendita ad Atlantia dei Diritti di Assegnazione Condizionati.

Banche, Fitch conferma i rating di Banco Popolare, Unicredit e Ubi Banca
In data 28 novembre 2013 Fitch Ratings ha confermato i rating di lungo e di breve termine del Banco Popolare a “BBB” e “F3” rispettivamente. Confermati anche i rating di UniCredit: ‘BBB+’ per il lungo termine,’F2′ per il breve termine e il rating individuale ‘bbb+'(Viability). L’outlook “negative”. Fitch ha confermato anche tutti i rating assegnati ad UBI Banca: Long-Term IDR (Issuer Default Rating) confermato a “BBB+ con Outlook: Negativo; Short-Term IDR a “F2” e Viability Rating a “bbb+”.

Olanda: S&P taglia il rating ad AA+, outlook stabile
L’agenzia Standard & Poor’s ha tagliato il rating dell’Olanda ad AA+ da AAA. Outlook stabile.

Mediaset, per Exane è underperform
Mediaset in ripiegamento in avvio di seduta. Il titolo cede l’1% durante i primi scambi e si riporta a 3,35 euro. Gli analisti di Exane hanno deciso di ridurre il rating sul titolo da neutral ad underperform.

Kinexia: assemblea Innovatec approva domanda ammissione azioni ad AIM Italia e aumento di capitale
Kinexia rende noto che si è riunita l’Assemblea degli Azionisti di Innovatec socio unico per deliberare, tra l’altro, in merito alla proposta di presentazione della domanda di ammissione delle azioni ordinarie di Innovatec alle negoziazioni sull’AIM Italia – Mercato Alternativo del Capitale, sistema multilaterale di negoziazione organizzato e gestito da Borsa Italiana e alla proposta di aumento del capitale sociale a pagamento, in via scindibile, con esclusione del diritto di opzione, ai sensi dell’art. 2441, quinto comma, del Codice Civile nonché all’emissione di azioni ordinarie da destinare all’attribuzione di warrants.

Quartz Daily Brief—East China Sea tensions, Indian GDP, Japan prices, dinosaur toilets

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Escalating tensions in the East China Sea. After Japan and South Korea said they flew surveillance aircraft into China’s “air defense zone” on Thursday, China responded by sending its own planes to patrol the area. Japan has promised more flights, while China says it is willing to take “defensive emergency measures.”

India announces second quarter GDP growth figures. Analysts are expecting a less-than-stellar 4.6% expansion, up slightly from 4.4% in the first quarter.

Ukraine turns its back on Europe. European heads of government said there is “no hope” Ukraine will pick a trade deal with Brussels over one with Moscow, but they will try nonetheless to convince Ukrainian leaders to change their minds at a summit in Lithuania. Despite massive protests in Kiev demanding a deal with the EU, Ukraine seems certain to bow to Russian pressure.

France considers an anti-prostitution bill. Lawmakers begin discussing a measure that would hit sex workers’ clients with steep fines. The proposed legislation would be some of the toughest in Europe, and has sparked a spirited debate in the country

A US shopping extravaganza. Americans will wake up with bellies full of turkey to shops full of deals as retailers kick off the holiday shopping season. Shoppers will spend an estimated $13.6 billion on so-called “Black Friday.”

While you were sleeping

Japan’s price gauge rose. A measure of prices excluding fresh food and energy rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, increasing 0.3% in October from a year earlier. That’s a positive sign for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who wants to curtail deflation.

Thailand rallies continued. Anti-government protesters said they’ll march to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s ruling party headquarters, while the opposition Democrat party said it supports the demonstrations. Yingluck has refused to step down or dissolve parliament.

Nicaragua is set to scrap presidential term limits. A parliamentary committee okayed a measure that would allow 68-year-old Daniel Ortega, who has been president since 2007, to remain in power.

Brazil opened up to fracking. Brazil put 240 blocks of land up for auction to energy companies, with some believed to contain reserves of shale gas. Demand was weak, however, with state-run Petrobras picking up most of the concessions after other firms balked at the remote nature of the territory and uncertain rules governing the drilling for shale gas.

The US spied on world leaders in Canada, according to a new trove of documents released by whistleblower Edward Snowden. This time the documents suggest that American officials coordinated the surveillance with Canadian authorities, targeting the G20 summit in Toronto in 2010.

Australia blocks an ADM deal. Ag giant ADM’s $2.6 billion takeover of grain storage and distribution company GrainCorp. was rejected on grounds of national interest, after local farmers expressed concern.

Quartz obsession interlude

Heather Timmons on how airlines must choose between patriotism and safety in Asia. “China’s controversial new ‘air defense zone,’ which overlaps with existing zones claimed by Japan and South Korea, presents commercial airlines with a knotty problem. Many countries balk at recognizing the zone as Chinese airspace, but China says that airlines flying through it must submit flight plans, stay in radio contact with Chinese authorities, and follow their instructions.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Ignore Hamid Karzai. The US should be patient and continue pushing for progress in Afghanistan, even if the country’s president is peevish and ungrateful.

It doesn’t matter if Bitcoin crashes. It’s done its by job proving there is demand for digital currencies; others will follow. 

Academia is a like a drug gang. Just as the kingpins get rich while street dealers remain expendable, those at the top of the ivory tower are becoming more entrenched in their positions.

Silicon Valley is experiencing another bubble. SnapChat’s refusal to accept $3 billion for a photo sharing app may be only the beginning.

Surprising discoveries

A drone delivery to inmates. Four people in Albany, Georgia were arrested for trying to use a remote-controlled helicopter to drop a stash of tobacco into a state prison.

J.D. Salinger’s unpublished work leaked online. What appear to be reproductions of manuscripts for three of the author’s short stories have made their way from eBay to Reddit.

East England is facing a clown epidemic. Norfolk police have asked residents to ignore the red-haired, red-suited pranksters.

Dinosaurs used public toilets. A 240-million-year old site in Argentina has been identified as a communal dumping ground.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, clown sightings and unpublished Salinger stories to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

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