Quartz Weekend Brief—Soccer’s old geezers, men in heels, romancing jihad, chocolate diets

Good morning, Quartz readers!

How did we let a bunch of geezers swindle global soccer for this long?

Of the 14 top soccer officials and businessmen arrested on FIFA-related corruption charges this week, all but five were over the age 60. But the geezer-in-chief, 79-year-old FIFA president Sepp Blatter, has not been indicted; on Friday, he was re-installed as the leader of world soccer for the fifth time. In a rambling speech just before his re-election, Blatter noted, correctly, that the World Cup is the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Though all but one of the people pulled from their Zurich hotel rooms by Swiss police were from outside the US, they were detained on behalf of the US attorney general, because bribe money allegedly flowed through the American financial system.

The length of America’s legal arms tends to upset global opinion—especially in Europe, where banks prefer lower capital requirements and a freer hand with rogue nations. But, in this case, hatred of FIFA(paywall) largely won out over distaste for American power-mongering—except, not surprisingly, from Russia’s Vladimir Putin and FIFA sponsor Gazprom. It may yet go down as the US’s best foreign policy move in years.

But while the US may end the reign of this particular group of geezers, don’t count on the game to change. Blatter’s long-serving predecessor was brought down by a very similar scandal involving sports marketing firms, kickbacks, and tournament rights.

So maybe we should blame capitalism? It’s the commercialization of the World Cup—with the idea of covering the costs, paying the players, and building the stadiums—that created such opportunities for the abuse of power. But there’s got to be a way to have an idealistic global tournament of sport that doesn’t require either massive government funding or massive corruption.

Let’s ask the people at the Olympics. They must… ah. Well, back to the drawing board.—Tim Fernholz

Five things on Quartz we especially liked

Why did men stop wearing high heels? Not, as the legend goes, because Napoleon disliked them. Jenni Avins explores the history of male vertical enhancement and observes that since heels became a symbol of non-masculinity in the Victorian age, it’s now only the men most secure in their manliness—cowboys and rock stars—who wear them.

Your all-non-white summer reading list. The New York Times’ literary critic, Janet Maslin, came under fire choosing a summer book list of all-white authors. Divya Guha and the Quartz India staff respond with an all-Indian selection of writing in English that spans fiction, non-fiction, and poetry.

The madness, brilliance, and reawakening of John Nash. Akshat Rathi eulogizes the mathematician, schizophrenic, Nobel laureate, and subject of the film A Beautiful Mind, who died with his wife Alicia in a car crash last weekend.

The most powerful Holocaust film you’ve never seen. A British propaganda picture depicting the Nazi concentration camps after liberation, made with Alfred Hitchcock’s help, has just been released after 70 years under wraps. Hanna Kozlowska finds that it “poignantly, almost quietly, portrays the power of human resilience.”

What Charles Darwin teaches us about working from home.Elizabeth Yale visits Darwin’s country retreat and reflects on how science has flipped since his day: He did his ground-breaking work on evolution surrounded and supported by a large family, while today’s scientists struggle to support their families on low-paying grants and fellowships.

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

Romancing the jihad. French journalist Anne Erelle (a pseudonym) posed as a young Muslim girl to form a relationship with an Islamic State fighter over Skype, who tried to get her to come to Syria to marry him. In an extract from her upcoming book in the Guardian, she showshow the jihadists recruit young women in the West.

How Sepp Blatter controls soccer. Of all the recent Blatteriana, this is probably the most comprehensive overview of the how the FIFA head manages his kingdom, by a team at Bloomberg Businessweek who conclude, “if the best his opponents can do is promise to out-Sepp Sepp, perhaps he’s precisely the man soccer deserves.”

The silence of the judges. There’s no real evidence that mandatory sentencing laws—which have put a vast number of Americans, mostly black men, in jail since the 1970s—are responsible for the subsequent drop in crime. Judge Jed Rakoff explains in the New York Review of Books why the data are so hard to analyze and criticizes his fellow judges for not speaking out more about the injustice they (often reluctantly) participate in.

Why the world’s oldest person keeps dying. If you’ve noticed that the death of the oldest person in the world seems to be announced with growing frequency, you’re not alone. FiveThirtyEight’s David Goldenberg spins an informative mini-treatise on the statistics of extreme old age.

How to do bad science and fool everyone. John Bohannen recruited real subjects for a real study that produced statistically significant results showing that chocolate will make you slimmer. The media lapped it up. And it was pure bunk. He explains for io9 how he did it and how the diet industry peddles false claims based on seemingly real research.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, Sepp Blatter anecdotes, and chocolate-based diets to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

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Why Doesn’t Anyone Care?

Q1 GDP for the US gets revised this morning and it’s expected to drop from +0.2% to -0.8%. Why so much worse? Because after the initial report came out it was discovered that exports were actually much lower than expected and that would show up in this revision.

So why aren’t stocks lower on these weak fundamentals?

Because most investors believe it is transitory with better results ahead. That is similar to last year’s first quarter which came in even nastier at –2.9% followed by two straight quarters around +5%.

To be honest, I am not seeing much in the economic data that says we have a gangbuster Q2 on our hands. It’s probably positive, but nothing like the stellar +4.6% rebound as we got in Q2 of last year.

That gets us back to a neutral state of affairs until we get new information that says the economy is heating up or slowing down. Next week will provide the key reports that will move the markets in ISM Mfg, ISM Services and monthly employment data.

It’s simple. If those reports are good, stocks move higher. If they are bad we move lower.


aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

AGENDA -Appuntamenti di venerdì 29 maggio 29/05/2015 – RSF

Franceschini incontra ministro tedesco Cultura Grutters, segue punto stampa (10,00).

Lcv Capital Management presenta “Un piano innovativo di investimenti industriali in Italia”, con presidente Lodovico De Visconti (11,30).

Reuters, asset allocation maggio (13,00).

Mediobanca presenta ricerca su “Medie Imprese Industriali Italiane” (10,00).

Continua “Festival dell’energia”; termina il 30 maggio. Oggi intervengono:Manzoni, Potì, C. Tamburi, Valotti, Carbone, Chiamparino, Camerano (10,00).

Renzi conclude campagna elettorale per Regionali (21,00).

Accademia della Crusca-Abi, incontro “Il linguaggio dell’economia. L’italiano dellebanche e della finanza” con presidente Accademia Claudio Marazzini, Patuelli, presidente Fondazione per l’educazione finanziaria e al risparmio Andrea Beltratti, Sabatini (10,00).

21ma Festa Naz.le di ‘Libertà Forza Lavoro’,partecipa Camusso (10,00).

Expo, Intesa Sanpaolo incontra rappresentanti Erg.

Expo, “Giornata del Latte” con Martina, presidente Granarolo Gianpiero Calzolari (10,00).

Inizia “Festival Economia Trento”;termina il 2 giugno. Inaugurazione con Boeri, Cipolletta, De Felice (15,30); intervengono Novel Economia 2001 Joseph E. Stiglitz, Boeri (18,30).

Berlino, Merkel riceve Cameron.

Bruxelles, Consiglio Ue competitività. Dresda, termina riunione ministri finanze e governatori banche centrali G7.

Lettonia, S&P si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Londra, termina la visita ufficiale di Mattarella.

Zurigo, elezione presidente Fifa.

Tokyo, Summit Ue-Giappone.

Zona euro, Mersch (Bce) tiene dicorso introduttivo a incontro Fmi/Banca mondiale a Sofia (12,00).

Istat pubblica nota mensile.

Istat, Pil finale 1°trimestre (10,00).

Istat, stima prezzi al consumo maggio (11,00).

Istat, prezzi alla produzione dell’industria aprile (13,00).

Francia, spese per consumi e prezzi alla produzione aprile (8,45).

Germania, vendite aldettaglio aprile (8,00).

Grecia, stima Pil 1° trimestre, prezzi alla produzione aprile e vendite al dettaglio marzo (11,00).

Portogallo, Pil finale 1° trimestre.

Spagna, stima prezzi al consumo maggio (9,00); partite correnti marzo(10,00).

Zona euro, Bce pubblica M3 e prestiti a privati aprile (10,00).

Stima Pil e core Pce 1° trimestre (14,30).

Pmi Chicago maggio (15,45).

Univ. Michigan, fiducia consumatori finale maggio (16,00).

Giappone, spesa famiglie, prezzi al consumo nazionali, tasso disoccupazione aprile, prezzi al consumo Tokyo maggio (1,30); stima produzione industriale aprile (1,50); ordini costruzioni e apertura nuovi cantieri residenziali aprile (7,00).

Cda bilancio: Fintel Energia Group, Methorios.

Digital Magics, termina aumento di capitale.

Eems, assemblea ordinaria (11,00) in 2° conv.

Exor, assemblea ordinaria (10,00) (a Torino), al termine Cda; segueconference call anche su offerta vincolante per l’acquisizione di PartnerRe (16,30).

Microspore, atteso ultimo giorno di quotazione.

Softec, Cda 1° trimestre.

Pop. Vicenza, conversione bond convertibile da 253 milioni.

VrWay, Cdabilancio.

CWS Market Review – May 29, 2015

May 29, 2015

Foul-cankering rust the hidden treasure frets,
But gold that’s put to use more gold begets.
– Venus and Adonis

We’re back from a nice holiday respite. I hope everyone had an enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. This has been a quiet time on Wall Street and for our Buy List. Since I sent you the last issue ofCWS Market Review, our Buy List is up a whopping 0.04% while the S&P 500 has careened for a massive loss of 0.01%.

Maybe Wall Street knew I was going on vacation!

But don’t despair, there’s good news to pass along. Two of our Buy List stocks, Hormel Foods (HRL) and Ross Stores (ROST), both posted strong earnings last week. I’ll have more details in a bit. I’ll also bring you up-to-speed on some of the other news impacting our Buy List.

In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll tell you that our old friend the Strong Dollar Trade is back in town. I wrote about this a lot last year. All investors need to understand how the rising greenback impacts the stock and bond markets, and in turn, our Buy List. This is a complicated topic and I’ll break it down without using on fancy econo-jargon.

Wall Street is still in a good mood. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high and one week later, we’re less than 0.5% away from record territory. Several of our Buy List stocks, like eBay (EBAY) and Snap-on (SNA), are at or near new 52-week highs. I’ve also noticed that Wall Street has mostly stopped paring back earnings estimates for Q2. That could be a good sign. Now let’s take a closer look at the return of the Strong Dollar Trade.

The Strong Dollar Trade is Back On

Late last year, I started talking a lot about the Strong Dollar Trade. This was when the U.S. dollar started soaring against other major currencies like the euro and yen. The fallout of this trade could be felt in many different arena such as the commodity pits as the price of oil price plunged (crude is traded in dollars) and in the stock market as energy and materials stocks floundered.

To be more precise, it wasn’t that the dollar was doing well; it was that everything else was doing worse, so the dollar, by default, looked good. In Europe, Mario Draghi finally convinced policy makers to give Quantitative Easing a shot. In Japan, after trying everything else for 25 years, the government also launched a plan to weaken the yen in hopes that it would boost the economy. In early August, one dollar would get you 102 yen. Four months later, it got you 121.

For most of this year, the yen stabilized but against the dollar but recently, it’s started to fall again. In fact, the yen has lost ground against the dollar in ten of the last 11 trading sessions. The greenback just hit a 12-year high against the yen. The weak-currency tonic may be working; the Japanese stock market is in the midst of its longest rally in 27 years.


The reason why strong dollar is back is that the market assumes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at some point and those higher yields will make dollar-denominated assets more attractive. Honestly, it doesn’t look like interest rates will go up in Europe or Japan anytime soon.

The recent economic data hasn’t been great, but it’s showing that the economy is indeed moving ahead. That seems to be good enough for Janet Yellen and her friends at the Fed. Jobless claims have been below 300,000 for 12 straight weeks. Consumer confidence is up. This week we learned that pending home sales reached a nine-year high. Housing starts were up 20% in April.

The Strong Dollar Trade isn’t as pronounced as it was before. For one, the dollar hasn’t been as strong against the euro as it has been against the yen. We also see that commodities aren’t getting pounded like they did before. The price of oil is holding steady around $58 per barrel and gold is just below $1,200 per ounce. The dollar may make a run at parity with the euro, which it hasn’t seen since 2002, but it has a ways to go.

I doubt we’ll see the rising dollar take a big bite out of corporate earnings like it did in the first quarter. Analysts have mostly stopped cutting back on their expectations for second-quarter earnings. The most important impact of the rising dollar will be felt in new-found respect for growth stocks. This will be seen in areas like tech. In fact, the tech sector has been outpacing the rest of the market for the last six weeks.

On our Buy List, this means that stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Oracle (ORCL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are poised to do well. As always, pay attention to my Buy Below prices. Now let’s take a closer look at two of our recent Buy List earnings reports.

Earnings from Hormel Foods and Ross Stores

We had two Buy List earnings reports last week. On Wednesday, May 20, Hormel Foods (HRL) report fiscal Q2 earnings of 67 cents per share. That was four cents more than Wall Street had been expecting. It was also a nice increase over the 52 cents per share Hormel had made in last year’s Q2.

This was especially welcomed news because there were concerns over the impact of the avian flu on Hormel’s business. I should say that the company has been transparent about the issue which shows you why it’s important to stick with high-quality stocks. Good companies don’t treat investors as if they’re the enemy. Quarterly revenues climbed 1.5% to $2.28 billion which was below Wall Street’s estimates of $2.39 billion.

“We achieved record second quarter earnings and sales, driving double-digit earnings growth with all five segments delivering increases,” said Jeffrey M. Ettinger, chairman of the board, president and chief executive officer.

“Although declining pork markets drove lower pricing and net sales this quarter, Refrigerated Foods increased operating profit by 52 percent with strong sales growth of foodservice and retail value-added products,” commented Ettinger. “Jennie-O Turkey Store entered the quarter with excellent momentum and drove robust sales and earnings gains, but exited the quarter with substantial supply chain challenges brought on by avian influenza. Grocery Products benefited from input cost relief and growth of our SPAM® family of products, while the export business in our International segment continued to be challenged by port issues and the strong U.S. dollar,” commented Ettinger. “Specialty Foods delivered earnings growth as the team continues to achieve synergies with the recently acquired CytoSport business.”

Hormel again acknowledged that avian flu will be an issue for them, but they’re sticking with their full-year guidance of $2.50 to $2.60 per share. That seems quite reasonable. With two quarters down, they’ve already made $1.30 per share this fiscal year.

“While we enjoyed an excellent first half, we expect Jennie-O Turkey Store to be significantly challenged going forward due to the impacts of avian influenza on our turkey supply chain,” commented Ettinger. “Refrigerated Foods and Grocery Products will continue to benefit from value-added product growth and lower pork input costs. Specialty Foods is positioned to deliver substantial earnings increases in the back half with the CytoSport business. Taking these factors into consideration, we are maintaining our 2015 non-GAAP earnings guidance at the lower end of our previously stated $2.50 to $2.60 per share range.”

The stock got a very big boost after the earnings report; HRL broke above $59 the afternoon of the earnings report. But soon after, HRL retreated back below $57. That was until this week. The stock got another boost on Wednesday when Hormel said it’s buying Applegate Farms for $775 million. Applegate is a leader in natural and organic prepared-meats. If you want 100% grass-fed beef hotdogs, then Applegate is the place to go. Hormel is wisely following eating habits as more Americans move away from those awful carbohydrates.

Hormel closed the day on Thursday at $58.20 per share. I’m keeping my Buy Below at $61. This November, I expect to see Hormel raise its dividend again. That will make 50 straight years of dividend increases. This is a good stock.

In the last issue of CWS Market Review, I told you that Ross Stores (ROST) would beat the guidance they gave—and I was right. Frankly, Ross tends to be pretty conservative with their numbers. The company projected fiscal Q1 coming in between $1.21 and $1.27 per share.

Please. I said I was expecting $1.30 and they beat that. Ross reported earnings of $1.33 per share. Quarterly sales rose 10% to $2.938 billion. Comparable store sales were up 5%. These are very good numbers.

Barbara Rentler, Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We are pleased with our better-than-expected sales and earnings in the first quarter. Our results continue to benefit from value-focused customers responding favorably to our fresh and exciting assortments of name brand bargains. Operating margin for the first quarter grew to 15.7%, up from 14.6% in the prior year, driven by a combination of higher merchandise margin, strong expense controls, and the aforementioned favorable timing of packaway-related costs.”

Ms. Rentler continued, “During the first quarter of fiscal 2015, we repurchased 1.7 million shares of common stock for an aggregate price of $176 million. As planned, we expect to buy back a total of $700 million in common stock during fiscal 2015 under the new two-year $1.4 billion authorization approved by our Board of Directors in February of this year.

The bad news is that Ross offered Q2 guidance of $1.19 to $1.24 per share with same stores sales rising by 2% to 3%. That’s pretty week; Wall Street had been expecting $1.26 per share. But as I said, Ross tends to be conservative with their guidance.


The weak outlook clearly upset traders as shares of Ross dropped more than 4.4% last Friday. I’m not worried at all and neither should you. Two weeks ago, I told you that Ross’s full-year guidance was too low—and the company raised it. Ross now sees full-year earnings ranging between $4.72 and $4.87 per share. The old range was $4.60 to $4.80 per share.

For some context, Ross earned $4.42 per share last year. (By the way, Ross’s guidance from last May was for $4.09 to $4.21 per share which shows you how conservative they tend to be.) All the evidence tells me that Ross is executing well. Remember that ROST will split 2-for-1 next month so don’t be alarmed when you see the lower share price. Ross Stores remains a good buy up to $107 per share.

Updates on Other Buy List Stocks

In a few weeks, I expect to see CR Bard (BCR) raise its dividend again. That’s not much of a surprise since the company has increased its payout every year since 1972. Bard currently pays out 22 cents per quarter which is rather puny. For the year, that’s less than 10% of Bard’s net. Business is going well for them and they had another good earnings report last month. CR Bard is a buy up to $184 per share.

Shares of Ford Motor (F) have been weak again—the company announced a recall this week—but I encourage you not to give up on this stock. The automaker is going for less than 10 times earnings and the dividend yield is nearly 4%. Things are clearly going well for Ford. Last month, Ford raised its estimate for operating profit margin in North America. The company is standing by its forecast of a pre-tax profit of $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion for this year. Don’t let the soggy stock scare you. Ford remains a buy up to $17 per share.

Last week, Qualcomm (QCOM) said it was launching their accelerated share repurchase program. This is part of their $15 billion buyback program they announced in arch. Qualcomm aims to 57.7 million shares for $5 billion. The purchase is being funded by Qualcomm’s recent $10 billion bond deal. Until the offering, Qualcomm didn’t have a dime of long-term debt.

The stock hasn’t done much in the last year, and I think the activist investors are finally having an impact on Qualcomm. The company gave us a nice dividend increase and the big share buyback. Jana Partners wants them to go further and break up the company. I don’t know if that will happen, but I agree there’s a lot of untapped value here.

Qualcomm gapped up on Wednesday of this week after the news that Broadcom (BRCM) is buying bought out. Qualcomm is a buy up to $72 per share.

Barron’s recently profiled Express Scripts (ESRX). Here’s a sample:

Express Scripts will benefit from a number of trends in the health-care industry. The rising demand for so-called specialty drugs, for instance, is a one-two punch for the company. First, as a pharmacy benefit manager, it uses its clout to negotiate favorable prices from drug makers for health plans — and gets a cut of those savings. But the company also operates a large mail-order and specialty drug pharmacy. So, somewhat incongruously, it also profits from growing demand for the same high-priced therapies that are playing havoc with health insurers’ medical cost trends. These two forces should combine to push shares higher.

The article noted that ESRX trades at a lower valuation than CVS (CVS). But if you tack a multiple of 17, which is quite reasonable, onto next year’s earnings estimate that gives you a share price of $102.51. That’s a 15% climb from here. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Express Scripts to $92 per share.

That’s all for now. With the beginning of June, we’ll get several important turn-of-the-month economic reports next week. On Monday, the ISM report for May comes out. The April ISM was unchanged from March, and the five reports prior to that all showed declines. I want to see an improvement here. Car sales come out on Tuesday. I expect more good news from Ford Motor (F). Wednesday is the Fed’s Beige Book plus the ADP jobs report. Then on Friday is the big May jobs report. The April jobs report was a nice rebound from the weak number for March. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 seven times in the last eight years. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.
2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi venerdì 29 maggio 29/05/2015 – RSF

GRECIA – Ancora non si intravede una soluzione definita per la vicenda greca. Se il governo ellenico dice di sperare di chiudere un accordo entro domenica, i creditori sottolineano come il lavoro da fare sia ancora molto, mentre mancano i risultati sostanziali. Dal Fondo monetario, inoltre, è arrivata la precisazione che Atene al momento non ha richiesto di raggruppare i pagamenti dovuti a giugno in un’unica soluzione a fine mese e che una soluzione nei prossimi giorni è “altamente improbabile”. Torna ad essere cerchiata in rosso, dunque, la data del 5 giugno, quando scade una rata di un prestito Fmi che la Grecia non sembra essere in grado di pagare senza lo sblocco di fondi freschi, vincolato da istituzioni europee e Fmi all’implementazione di riforme improntate al contenimento della spesa pubblica. Commenti cauti sono arrivati anche da esponenti della Bce, che hanno ribadito come senza la chiusura formale di un accordo, Francoforte continuerà a non accettare i bondgreci come collaterale nelle operazioni di rifinanziamento bancario. Secondo quanto riferito da un funzionario, la questione greca dovrebbe trovare spazio oggi nell’agenda dei lavori del G7 finanziario a Dresda.

ITALIA E CONSIGLIO UE – Ilgoverno di Matteo Renzi ha preparato una proposta da mettere sul tavolo alla prossima riunione dei capi di Stato e di governo. Si tratterebbe – dice un documento pronto per il vertice – di trasferire al piano Juncker per il rilancio degli investimenti i fondi rimasti in dotazione all’Esm, strumento in grado di raccogliere potenziali 500 miliardi, di cui ancora 453 inutilizzati dopo i pacchetti di salvataggio per Spagna e Cipro. Lo schema messo a punto dal presidente della Commissione intendesmobilizzare 350 miliardi. (news) Secondo ‘La Stampa’, un’altra ipotesi in sede europea sarebbe quella di utilizzare il capitale del fondo salva-Stati per una diretta iniezione di liquidità alle banche che ne avessero bisogno.

BTP- Le riaperture dei titoli a medio-lungo termine riservate agli specialisti chiuderanno la tornata delle aste di fine mese. Se la domanda nei collocamenti di ieri si è confermata solida, i rendimenti sono risultati in rialzo, il massimo da gennaio per il 5 anni (0,85%) e da dicembre per il 10 anni (1,83%). I tassi sono comunque in linea con i livelli recenti del secondario, che vive un contesto di rinnovata volatilità, in parte legata alla vicenda greca, in parte per effetto di un ‘repricing’ cheha colpito l’intero obbligazionario europeo, frutto smantellamento di alcune posizioni costruite nell’euforia dell’avvio del Qe. Il Tesoro al momento ha coperto circa il 53% del funding previsto per quest’anno.

DATI ITALIA – Giornataparticolarmente ricca dal punto di vista dei dati macro. Per l’Italia sono in arrivo i numeri finali del Pil del primo trimestre, comprensivi delle componenti. Il dato preliminare, diffuso a metà mese, ha certificato il ritorno alla crescita nelperiodo gennaio-marzo, quando il Pil ha segnato un incremento dello 0,3% congiunturale, arrestando anche la caduta su base annua (news). Sempre Istat diffonderà il preliminare dell’inflazione di maggio. La mediana delle attese degli analistiper il dato nazionale annuo è per una marginale accelerazione dei prezzi, pari allo 0,1%(news).

DATI USA – Il dato che probabilmente è destinato a catalizzare l’attenzione è quello sul Pil statunitense del primo trimestre, dicui verrà diffusa la seconda stima. Le attese sono per una revisione al ribasso della stima “advance” pubblicata il 29 aprile, che aveva evidenziato una crescita marginale dello 0,2% annualizzato dopo +2,2% del quarto trimestre. La mediana deglieconomisti per la lettura odierna converge su un calo dello 0,8%. Il rallentamento della prima economia mondiale nei mesi invernali è stato in parte imputato all’impatto negativo sui consumi delle condizioni meterologiche particolarmente avverse, inparte all’apprezzamento del dollaro. La numero uno della Fed Yellen ha recentemente definito effimera la frenata, lasciando aperta la porta per un ritocco verso l’alto dl costo del denaro entro quest’anno.

DATI GIAPPONE – A livello ‘core’, iprezzi al consumo di aprile mostrano un incremento annuo di 0,3%, un decimo oltre le attese, così come quelli per la sola area di Tokyo, cresciuti al tasso tendenziale di 0,2% contro lo 0,1% del consensus. Sempre ad aprile e sempre su base annua, laspesa delle famiglie ha visto una battuta d’arresto di 1,3% contro il +3,1% delle attese, mentre a livello mensile la variazione è negativa per 5,5% da confrontare con aspettative per -0,7%. Segnali positivi invece dal mercato del lavoro, con il tasso di disoccupazione detagionalizzato passato sempre il mese scorso a 3,3% da 3,4% del consensus.

FOREX – Dollaro in lieve calo dai massimi di ieri, per quanto sull’euro continuino a pesare le gravi incognite sul dossier greco che neimpediscono la ripresa. Gli investitori guardano con particolare attenzione alla seconda lettura del Pil dei primi tre mesi dell’anno, che nella stima flash ha profondamente deluso le aspettative. Poco dopo le 7,30 euro/dollaro <EUR=> 1,0946/49 da1,0946 ieri sera in chiusura a New York, dollaro/yen <JPY=> 123,88/91 da 123,94 ed euro/yen <EURJPY=> 135,60/69 da 135,64.

GREGGIO – Derivati sul greggio in buon rialzo, premiati dalla quarta settimana consecutiva di erosione delle scorteUsa, in vista anche della stagione estiva che segna i picchi nei consumi di benzina. Il futures giugno sul Brent avanza di 1,01% a 58,27 dollari il barile, mentre l’analoga scadenza Nymex guadagna 0,7% a 63,02 dollari

TREASURIES -Governativi Usa sulle posizioni, con il decennale stabile a 99*30 che paga 2,1302%.

Istat pubblica nota mensile.

Istat, Pil finale 1° trimestre (10,00) – attesa 0,3% t/t; 0,0% a/a.

Istat,stima prezzi al consumo maggio (11,00) – attesa dato Nic 0,1% m/m; 0,1% a/a; dato Ipca 0,1% m/m; 0,1% a/a.

Istat, prezzi alla produzione dell’industria aprile (13,00).

Spese per consumi aprile (8,45) – attesa 0,2% m/m. Prezzi alla produzione aprile (8,45).

Vendite al dettaglio aprile (8,00) – attesa 0,8% m/m; 2,5% a/a.

Stima Pil 1° trimestre aprile (11,00).

Prezzi alla produzione aprile (11,00).

Vendite aldettaglio marzo (11,00).

Pil finale 1° trimestre.

Stima prezzi al consumo maggio (9,00) – attesa dato armonizzato -0,6% a/a.

Partite correnti marzo (10,00).

Bce, M3 aprile(10,00) – attesa 4,9%.

Bce, prestiti a privati aprile (10,00) – attesa 0,2%.

Stima Pil 1° trimestre (14,30) – attesa -0,8%.

Stima Core Pce 1° trimestre (14,30)attesa 0,9%.

Pmi Chicago maggio (15,45) – attesa 53,0. Univ. Michigan, fiducia consumatori finale maggio (16,00) – attesa 89,9.

Zona euro, Mersch (Bce) tiene discorso introduttivo a incontro Fmi/Banca mondiale a Sofia (12,00).

Milano, Reuters pubblica asset allocation maggio (13,00)
Firenze, Renzi conclude campagna elettorale per Regionali (21,00).

Firenze, incontro Accademia della Crusca-Abi su “Il linguaggio dell’economia. L’italiano delle banche e della finanza” con presidente Accademia Claudio Marazzini, Patuelli, presidente Fondazione per l’educazione finanziaria e al risparmio Andrea Beltratti, Sabatini (10,00).

Trento, inizia “Festival Economia Trento”; termina il 2 giugno. Inaugurazione conBoeri, Cipolletta, De Felice (15,30); intervengono Novel Economia 2001 Joseph E. Stiglitz, Boeri (18,30).

Berlino, Merkel riceve Cameron.

Bruxelles, Consiglio Ue competitività.

Dresda, termina riunione ministri finanze e governatori banche centrali G7.

Lettonia, S&P si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Londra, termina la visita ufficiale di Mattarella. Zurigo, elezione presidente Fifa.

Tokyo, Summit Ue-Giappone.

STOCKS TO WATCH-Venerdì 29 maggio, ore 8,20 29/05/2015 – RSF

******* INDICI 28 MAGGIO *****
FTSE Mib 23.744,13 -0,49%
FTSEurofirst 300 1.615,27 -0,47%
Euro STOXX 50 3.650,71 -0,87%
Dow Jones 18.126,12 -0,20%
S&P 2.120,79 -0,13%
Le borse europee sono viste in rialzo in apertura.

Di seguito, i titoli in evidenza nella seduta del 29 maggio. Leintegrazioni sono segnate con (*).

GENERALI (G.MI)/INTESA SP (ISP.MI)/MEDIOBANCA (MB.MI) – L’autorità argentina ha dato il via libera alla scissione della holding Telco con la quale il 22% circa del capitale di Telecom Italiaviene assegnato direttamente ai quattro soci Generali, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca e Telefonica. (news)

(*) TELECOM ITALIA (TIT.MI) – Il via libera di Consob al prospetto per la quotazione di Inwit non arriverà in settimana. Lo hadetto Giuseppe Vegas. (news)
Vivendi ha annunciato di aver completato la vendita del 100% della brasiliana Gvt a Telefonica per un enterprise value di 7,5 miliardi di euro.(news)
Secondo il Corriere della Sera Vivendi, cheentrerà nel gruppo inizialmente con l’8,3%, punterà al 10-12% del gruppo.

Anche secondo il Messaggero, Vincent Bollorè in futuro aumenterà la propria partecipazione: o fino al 10-12% facendosi affiancare da un socio italiano, o fino al 15-18% delcapitale.

TELECOM ITALIA (TIT.MI)/ENEL (ENEL.MI) – I tecnici di Telecom Italia stanno parlando con quelli di Enel per una possibile collaborazione nella banda larga, ma siamo ancora in una fase preliminare e la tempistica di un’eventualeaccordo è incerta. Lo ha detto il presidente di Telecom Italia, Giuseppe Recchi. (news)
L’AD di Enel Francesco Starace in serata ha dichiarato che sullo sviluppo della banda larga la società parla con tutti. (news)
INTESA SANPAOLO (ISP.MI) – Ha rescisso l’accordo, siglato a gennaio 2014, con CentraGas Holding per la cessione del 100% della controllata ucraina Pravex in quanto non ha ottenuto a oggi le autorizzazioni necessarie al perfezionamento dell’operazione. (news)

FIAT CHRYSLER (FCA.MI) – Ritirerà più di 4 milioni di veicoli dal mercato Usa per problemi di air bag, secondo quanto annunciato dall’autorità statunitense. Si tratta di una dozzina di modelli, prodotti tra gli anni 2004 a2011. (news)
Vede una fusione nel settore auto entro il 2018, ma non può confermare di avere inviato una mail a General Motors per proporre un’integrazione. Lo ha detto l’AD Sergio Marchionne. (news)
L’AD di Opel,Karl-Thomas Neumann, esclude un accordo con Fiat, ma aggiunge di vedere la necessità nell’industria automobilistica di un miglioramento di volumi, scala e utilizzo degli impianti. (news)
Vede la produzione all’impianto di Melfi al livello record i 400 mila vetture nel 2015, ha detto Marchionne. (news)

POPOLARI – L’esclusiva concessa dagli azionisti di Icbpi alla cordata formata da Bain Capital, Advent International e Clessidra è, di fatto, una formalità, dato che il deal è sostanzialmente chiuso, ma la struttura dell’operazione dipenderà dall’iter autorizzativo di Bankitalia e Bce. E’ quanto dicono a Reuters diverse fonti vicine alla situazione, all’indomani dell’annuncio della concessione dell’esclusiva. (news)

ENI (ENI.MI) – Ha deciso di riacquistare obbligazioni convertibili in azioni ordinarie Galp Energia per un importo nominale complessivo di 514,9 milioni di euro. (news)
In Libia sta producendo all’80% delleproprie potenzialità ed è soddisfatta per l’ultima scoperta di gas e condensati nell’offshore nel Paese africano. Lo ha detto l’AD Claudio Descalzi. (news)
La situazione in Nigeria è abbastanza nella normalità, ha aggiunto Descalzi.(news)

ENEL (ENEL.MI) – Intende proseguire con la cessione del 66% detenuto nella slovacca Slovenske Elektrarne (Se), quota valutata 750 milioni nel bilancio chiuso al 31 dicembre 2014. Lo ha detto l’amministratore delegato delgruppo Francesco Starace. (news)
L’assemblea degli azionisti ha dato il via libera, per la parte straordinaria, all’allentamento della clausola di onorabilità, come proposto dal consiglio di amministrazione. (news)

FINMECCANICA (FNC.MI) – Ha molte idee per acquisizioni e non è concentrata solo su operazioni di cessione, dice l’Ad Mauro Moretti. (news)

SNAM (SRG.MI) – La realizzazione del gasdotto Galsi, l’infrastruttura che dovrebbeportare il gas algerino in Italia via Sardegna per approdare in Toscana, non è così vicino. Lo ha detto Carlo Malacarne, AD di Snam, la società che dovrà realizzare le infrastrutture in Italia. (news)

AUTOGRILL (AGL.MI) – Non ha ma discusso in Cda di scorpori o fusioni, ma continua a guardarsi attorno e a tenersi pronta per cogliere eventuali opportunità di M&A, senza scadenze temporali. Lo ha detto il presidente e azionista Gilberto Benetton. (news)

BANCACARIGE (CRG.MI) – Il via libera della Consob al prospetto informativo sull’aumento di capitale fino a 850 milioni potrebbe arrivare nei prossimi giorni. Lo ha detto il presidente della Commissione, Giuseppe Vegas. (news)
Il Cda prendeatto delle dimissioni dei consiglieri Luca Bonsignore, Lorenzo Cuocolo e Giuseppe Zampini che vengono sostituiti da Beniamino Anselmi, Marco Macciò e Giampaolo Provaggi. Lo dice una nota della banca. (news)

SEAT PAGINE GIALLE(PG.MI) – L’Opa su Seat Pagine Gialle, per effetto dell’integrazione con Italiaonline, è prevista intorno alla metà di settembre e le assemblee per approvare l’operazione intorno a fine anno, secondo due fonti vicine alla vicenda. (news)

SARAS (SRS.MI) – La famiglia Moratti non ha alcuna intenzione di far aumentare la quota dei russi di Rosneft nel capitale, attualmente al 21%. Lo ha detto il presidente Gianmarco Moratti. (news)

DIASORIN (DIA.MI) – Lanciail test Liaison Campylobacter sul mercato, al di fuori degli Stati Uniti, a completamento del pannello di infezioni batteriche gastro-intestinali. (news)

INVESTIMENTI E SVILUPPO (IES.MI) – Ha deliberato l’emissione di un aumento di capitale riservato da 317.500 euro destinato a Gadolla Trading, AZ Partecipazioni e Nicola Fossati. (news)

Cda: Fintel Energia Group, Methorios, Softec, VrWay.

Digital Magics, termina aumento di capitale.

Eems, assemblea ordinaria.

Exor, assemblea ordinaria, al termine Cda; segue conference call anche su offerta vincolante per l’acquisizione di PartnerRe.

Microspore, ultimo giorno di quotazione.


Sul sito http://www.reuters.it le altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche suwww.twitter.com/reuters_italia

Enel Green Power vista da Banca Akros 29/05/2015 – RSF

ENEL GREEN POWER (EGPW.MI) – (Quotazione 1,7070)
Il titolo si sta muovendo all’interno del canale laterale compreso tra il supporto in area 1,65 e la resistenza in area 1,92 euro.

Dal punto di vista tecnico, i principali oscillatori presentano un’impostazione positiva ed i volumi risultano superiori alla media di periodo.

Tale situazione tecnica induce a pensare ad un possibile rafforzamento, che potrebbe spingere il titolo verso il primo livello di resistenza in area 1,75.

In caso di violazione dell’area di resistenza, il movimento potrebbe estendersi fino a quota 1,81 (seguente area 1,85).

Solamente la violazione del supporto in area 1,65 sarebbe da intendersi come segnale di debolezza e su questo livello dovrebbe essere posto lo stop loss.

Resistenze: 1,75-1,81-1,85-1,92.

Supporti: 1,65-1,60-1,55.

NOTA – L’analisi tecnica sui titoli della Borsa di Milano è curata questa settimana da Marcello Renna di Banca Akros. Le opinioniespresse sono quelle dell’autore e non vanno in alcun modo collegate a Reuters.