Websim Focus sui Mercati finanziari 31/03/2016 – WS

I commenti improntati alla cautela in materia di costo del denaro arrivati dalla Fed sono il propellente del rialzo di ieri sera a Wall Street. I tre indici principali hanno messo a segno un progresso di mezzo punto percentuale.

All’intervento del presidente Janet Yellen si è aggiunto il commento di Charles Evans, presidente della Fed di Chicago che ha definitivamente rimosso l’ultimo dubbio sulla possibilità che il mese prossimo ci possa essere un rialzo del costo del denaro. Se ne riparla in giugno, ma solo se i dati sull’occupazione continueranno a essere molto buoni.

Asia. Stamattina Tokyo +0,16%. In Cina, Hong Kong -0,2%, Shanghai +0,3%. Seul -0,6% e Mumbai -0,4%.

I future sulle Borse europee anticipano un avvio in calo di circa lo 0,40%.

Analisi Tecnica Borse.

Il quadro di breve è ulteriormente migliorato, con l’indice MSCI World che ieri ha messo a segno il quarto rialzo consecutivo (+1,1%) portandosi su nuovi top dal 4 gennaio. Si consideri però che oggi è l’ultima seduta del primo trimestre e non si può escludere qualche presa di profitto. Le Borse asiatiche hanno messo a segno a marzo il miglior mese dal 2009.

S&P500 (2.063 +0,44%). Quindicesima seduta di rialzo da inizio mese e nuovi top da inizio anno. Il pieno sfondamento di area 2.040 proietta un target sui massimi storici in area 2.130. Supporti verso 1.900 punti.

NASDAQ (4.869, +0,47%). Nuovi top da inizio gennaio. Teniamo alta l’allerta. Sopra 4.900 punti si aprirà la porta per un ritorno sui massimi assoluti a 5.200.

Giappone (Nikkei 16.905, +0,16%). Nelle ultime sedute non si registra niente di particolare. Monitoriamo i supporti e area d’acquisto verso 16mila punti. Solo oltre 17.700 punti il trend riprenderà vigore.

Cina. (CSI 300 +0,3% a 3.225). Consolida il brillante +2,6% di ieri confermando l’uscita dal range 2.800-3.120 punti, che ha guidato il trend da metà gennaio a metà marzo. Alziamo l’allerta: attese accelerazioni al superamento dei recenti top a 3.270. Il segnale di forza rientrerà in caso di ritorno sotto 3.100 punti.

FtseMib (18.375, +1,1%). L’uscita dalla parte bassa del canale crescente avviato a metà febbraio (sotto 18.450 punti) ha indebolito il quadro di breve. Solo sopra 18.800 punti l’emergenza rientrerà. Nuove spinte si vedranno oltre 19.250 punti.

Dax (10.046, +1,6%). Molto più vivace della nostra borsa. La perdita da inizio 2016 è del 6% contro il -14% di Milano. Resta valido il target di breve a 10.300 punti. Primo supporto 9.300 punti. Sostegni strategici verso 8.400/8mila punti.

Brasile (Bovespa 51.248, +0,2%). Nuovi top dal luglio 2015, ma contrassegnati da qualche presa di beneficio nel finale di seduta. Ormai l’esecutivo guidato da Dilma Rousseff viene dato per spacciato e questo scenario piace al mercato. Sopra 51mila/52mila punti si evidenzia un altro segnale di forza. Sulla debolezza si possono posizionare acquisti in area 45mila punti.

Commodity.

Petrolio. Prezzi ancora deboli. Brent -0,9% a 38,9 usd. Da segnalare, dopo il dato sulle scorte Usa diffuso ieri, il tweet del ministro dell’Energia dell’Ecuador che anticipa l’intenzione di presentare alla prossima riunione tra paesi produttori una richiesta di taglio alla produzione. Per leggere bene l’attuale scenario, non si dimentichi che il greggio ha messo a segno un rimbalzo del 50/60% dai minimi di gennaio. Discese verso 36 usd per noi sono da sfruttare per acquisti. Stop loss in caso di ritorno sotto 30 usd.

Oro (1.228 usd). Consolida il rimbalzo di ieri guidato dalla Fed. Il rimbalzo è partito proprio da area 1.200 usd, da noi indicata come livello di acquisto sulla debolezza (minimo a 1.207 usd). Target 1.300 usd.

Forex.

Valute Emergenti. Il primo trimestre si sta per chiudere con nuovi segnali di spinta. Stamattina il Ringgit malese aggiorna i massimi da luglio 2015. Rupia indiana sui top da aprile 2015,Rand sudafricano sui top da metà dicembre.

Euro/Dollaro (1,131). Le mosse della Fed spingono il dollaro verso la parte alta del range 1,05 – 1,15 dove stiamo pronti a comprare dollari sulla debolezza.

Bond governativi.

USA. La Fed ha spinto all’ingiù i rendimenti delle obbligazioni. Nel caso del Treasury bond biennale siamo al minimo dell’ultimo mese a 0,76% (-3 punti base rispetto a ieri mattina).

Germania. Una nuova ondata di acquisti sta spingendo i rendimenti sui nuovi minimi storici. Il rendimento del decennale è intorno a 0,15%. Suggeriamo di sfruttare gli strappi verso i minimi storici (0,10%) per prendere profitto. Non vediamo più “valore inespresso” in questo segmento.

Italia. Ottima tenuta dei nostri BTP. Lo spread scende a 105 punti base, il rendimento del decennale scende sui minimi da aprile 2015 a 1,21%. Crediamo che in questo segmento rimanga del valore inespresso soprattutto per la potenziale chiusura dello spread fino a 80/50 punti base.

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Annunci

MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi giovedì 31 marzo 31/03/2016 – RSF

INFLAZIONE – Focus in mattinata sui dati flash sull’inflazione di marzo in Italia, Francia e soprattutto, in chiave Bce, nella zona euro. Per quel che riguarda l’Italia le previsioni indicano la conferma di un quadro deflazionistico, con un indice dei prezzi al consumo stimato in contrazione dello 0,3% su anno, come in febbraio; gli economisti rimandano a fine estate per un apprezzabile cambio di scenario (news). Anche per la zona euro nel suo complesso l’inflazione è vista ancora sottozero: le stime danno un indice Cpi in calo dello 0,1% tendenziale dopo il -0,2% di febbraio; il dato al netto di cibo ed energia è indicato a +0,9% dal +0,8% di febbraio. I dati di ieri sull’inflazione tedesca hanno però evidenziato numeri superiorialle attese, con un’accelerazione a 0,3% in marzo (a 0,1% l’armonizzato) (news).

TARIFFE LUCE E GAS – A proposito di prezzi, ieri l’Autorità per l’energia il gas e il sistema idrico ha annunciato che a partire dal primo aprile letariffe elettriche in Italia scenderanno del 5% mentre quelle del gas del 9,8%. Una riduzione che si aggiunge a quella che era stata già decisa per il primo trimestre dell’anno (news).

IVA – Il vice ministro dell’Economia Morando haribadito ieri che il governo è impegnato ad evitare gli aumenti di Iva e accise che dovrebbero scattare a partire dal 2017 per rispettare gli impegni con l’Ue di riduzione del deficit (news). Le parole di Morando sono arrivate a poco più di unasettimana dalla data attesa per il varo del Def, dopo che indiscrezioni di stampa hanno citato l’ipotesi di una sterilizzazione non completa delle clausole di salvaguardia, attraverso un piccolo e mirato rialzo dell’Iva (giocando anche sullacomposizione delle aliquote) capace di contribuire al taglio dell’Irpef.

BTP – Lievemente positivo ieri il secondario italiano, con acquisti soprattutto sul tratto lungo e su quello extra lungo, al termine della seduta in cui il Tesoro hacollocato 8 miliardi, l’importo massimo, di titoli a medio lungo, tra cui il nuovo Btp a 5 anni giugno 2021. Nuovi minimi storici sono stati registrati in asta sia sul nuovo quinquennale sia sulla scadenza decennale (news). I Btp ripartonostamane da un tasso dell’1,22%, lo spread da 106 pb dopo aver stretto ieri sul calo della carta tedesca in scia ai dati migliori delle stime sull’inflazione tedesca.

RIAPERTURE MEDIO LUNGO – Oggi andranno in riapertura i tre titoli in asta ieri, con un’offerta supplementare di 1,05 miliardi per il nuovo Btp quinquennale, di 450 per il decennale e di 225 per il Ccteu dicembre 2022. Al netto delle riaperture odierne e in attesa dell’imminente lancio del nuovo Btp Italia, il Tesoro hacoperto circa il 31% delle esigenze di rifinanziamento previste per quest’anno.

BOND CENTENNALE IRLANDA – Ieri il Tesoro irlandese ha comunicato di aver collocato tramite private placement 100 milioni di euro di bond a 100 anni, la primaemissione del paese su una scadenza così lunga. Il tasso è stato del 2,35%. “Un grande voto di fiducia sull’Irlanda come emittente sovrano” ha commentato il responsabile funding dell’agenzia del debito del paese (news).

MERCATO LAVORO USA – Negli Usa, dopo le parole di cautela pronunciate l’altro ieri dal governatore della Fed Yellen, l’attenzione resta sul flusso dei dati economici. In attesa del ‘payroll’ di marzo, in uscita venerdì (con stime per 205.000 nuovi posti nonagricoli rispetto ai 242.000 del mese precedente), ieri il rapporto Adp ha evidenziato un dato leggermente superiore alle attese, con 200.000 posti in più nel settore privato, rispetto ai 194.000 previsti (news). Oggi intanto è in agenda lastatistica settimanale sui sussidi di disoccupazione: le stime sono per 265.000 nuove richieste, in linea con quelle della settimana precedente.

FED – Nel segno della cautela sono andate anche le dichiarazioni di ieri sera del presidentedella Fed di Chicago Evans, con parole decisamente allineate a quelle appena pronunciate dalla Yellen. Secondo Evans per i prossimi anni negli Stati Uniti sarà appropriata una serie di rialzi dei tassi “molto limitata”, in modo sia da proteggerel’economia da shock esterni sia da impedire una discesa dell’inflazione a livelli troppo bassi.

AVVIO CANTIERI GIAPPONE – Sono aumentati del 7,8% su anno in febbraio i cantieri residenziali in partenza in Giappone: un dato decisamentepositivo rispetto al +0,2% di gennaio e soprattutto rispetto al -2,4% delle attese.

GREGGIO – Quotazioni petrolifere in calo stamane, col greggio Usa che scende sui minimi da due settimane: gli ultimi dati sulle scorte Usa, che hannotoccato nuovi livelli record (sebbene l’aumento sia stato inferiore alle attese nell’ultima settimana), riaccendono i timori per l’eccesso di offerta globale (news). La limitata risalita del dollaro nelle ultime ore contribuisce a sua volta atenere sotto pressione i prezzi. Alle 7,30 italiane il future Brent <LCOc1> tratta a 38,81 dollari il barile (-0,45); il Nymex <CLc1> a 37,83 dollari (-0,49).

FOREX – Recupera qualcosa ma resta sulla difensiva il dollaro in scia ai commenti ‘accomodanti’ di due giorni fa della Yellen, e del medesimo segno, ieri, da parte di Evans. Il ‘dollar index’, che mette in relazione il biglietto verde a un paniere delle principali divise internazionali risale marginalmente dopo essersiriavvicinato in seduta al minimo da 5 mesi di 94,578 toccato due settimane fa. Il dollaro recupera lievemente anche nei confronti dell’euro: l’euro/dollaro <EUR=> tratta a 1,1316/20 da 1,1336 dell’ultima chiusura, restando comunque in prossimità delmassimo del 2016 di 1,1377 (con un apprezzamento complessivo sul trimestre di circa il 4%); dollaro/yen <JPY=> a 112,32/37 da 112,42; euro/yen <EURJPY=> a 127,13/20 da 127,44.

TREASURIES – Governativi Usa in rialzo nelle contrattazioni della mattinata, in linea con le ultime indicazioni decisamente gradualiste giunte dalla Fed sulle prospettive del ciclo di rialzo dei tassi Usa. Il Treasury decennale <US10YT=RR> guadagna 5/32, rendimento a 1,812%%.

DATIMACROECONOMICI
ITALIA
Istat, stima prezzi al consumo marzo (11,00) – attesa dato Nic 0,1% m/m; -0,3% a/a; dato Ipca 2,2% m/m; -0,2% a/a.

Istat, prezzi alla produzione dell’industria febbraio (12,00).

FRANCIA
Stima prezzial consumo marzo febbraio (8,45).

Prezzi alla produzione febbraio (8,45).

Spesa per consumi febbraio (8,45) – attesa 0,0% m/m.

GERMANIA
Vendite al dettaglio febbraio (8,00) – attesa 0,3% m/m; 2,2% a/a.

Tasso disoccupazionemarzo (9,55) – attesa 6,2%.

GRAN BRETAGNA
BoE, dati su credito al consumo, mutui e massa monetaria M4 febbraio (10,30) – attesa crediti al consumo 1.400 miliardi.

Lettura finale Pil 4° trimestre (10,30) – attesa 0,5% t/t; 1,9% a/a.

Partite correnti 4° trimestre (10,30) – attesa -21,10 mld.

GRECIA
Vendite al dettaglio gennaio (11,00).

SPAGNA
Partite correnti gennaio (9,00).

Stima flash prezzi al consumo marzo (9,00) – attesa dato armonizzato -0,9% a/a.

Vendite al dettaglio febbraio (9,00).

ZONA EURO
Stima flash inflazione marzo (11,00) – attesa -0,1% a/a.

USA
Nuove richieste settimanali sussidi disoccupazione (14,30) – attesa 265.000.

Pmi Chicago marzo (15,45) – attesa 50,0.

BANCHE CENTRALI
ITALIA
Banca d’Italia, bollettino Statistico trimestrale dicembre 2015; debito estero dell’Italia 4° trimestre 2015; posizione patrimoniale sull’estero dell’Italia 4° trimestre2015.

Banca d’Italia pubblica indice Eurocoin di febbraio.

EUROPA
Gran Bretagna, conferenzastampa governatore Carney su ‘Financial Stability Board’ a Tokyo (9,00).

USA
New York, intervento presidente Fed Chicago Evans (15,30).

Lexington, intervento presidente Fed New York Dudley (23,00).

APPUNTAMENTI ITALIA
Roma, a commissione Affari costituzionali della Camera audizione Cantone su schema dlgs di revisione e semplificazione in materia di prevenzione della corruzione, pubblicità e trasparenza (14,00).

Roma, Alfano risponde al question time alla Camera su iniziative Italia contro terrorismo dopo attentati Bruxelles (15,00).

Roma, in Senato interrogazioni a risposta immediata a Poletti(16,00).

Milano, Reuters pubblica asset allocation marzo (13,00).

Milano, dibattito su”Banche e territorio: il coraggio di un cambiamento necessario” con Lodesani, Viola, Giarda, Maroni, Baretta, Furlan (9,30).

EUROPA
L’Aja, udienza Tribunale arbitrale su Marò.

Helsinki, attesa da Tesoro finlandese pubblicazionerapporto trimestrale, comprendente piano per prossime emissioni.

Parigi, riunione ministri finanziari e governatori banche centrali G20; ministro Finanze francese Sapin e governatore banca centrale cinese Xiaochuan ospitano seminario su architettura finanziaria internazionale.

Vienna, convegno economico Austria-Iran (10,00).

USA
New York, intervento Mogherini a ‘United Nations Security Council’.

Boston, Renzi visita il centro IBM (9,45), interviene presso l’Harvard University (11,45).

Washington, termina vertice sul nucleare, partecipa Renzi.

Tesla’s Model 3, Korean industrial surge, drone art

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Earnings from the Agricultural Bank of China. The country’s third-largest lender is expected to post dismal annual results, just like its peers.After years of growth, the “Big Four” state-run banks are seeing flat-to-declining profits and high levels of non-performing debt.

The UK holds crisis talks on its steel industry. Of immediate concern is the fate of the Port Talbot steelworks (and its 5,500 staff), which Indian parent firm Tata Steel plans to sell.

Tesla unveils its latest model. The Model 3 is a $35,000 sedan that will go at least 200 miles (320 km) on a single charge. It’s the mass-market electric car that Elon Musk has always promised—and he has essentially bet the company on its success.

Obama hosts a big nuclear summit. Officials from 56 countries, including the leaders of China, Great Britain, Canada, France, India, and Mexico, descend on Washington to talk about nuclear security issues. The US president has only one private meeting scheduled, with Chinese president Xi Jinping.

While you were sleeping

Researchers warned that Antarctica’s sea ice is not stable. A collapsecould double the expected sea-level rise to two meters by 2100, assuming carbon emissions aren’t cut. That would spell disaster for many low-lying cities.

South Korean industrial production grew the most since December 2014. Output rose 3.3% month-on-month in February, and 2.4% from a year earlier. One key reason: New smartphones from Samsung and Apple led to a surge in semiconductor production.

New home sales slumped in Australia. The 5.3% fall in February was theworst monthly result in 18 months. Tightening credit conditions and increased uncertainty about the economy were partly to blame.

Niger reported three soldiers were killed by Boko Haram. The deaths occurred during an ambush on Wednesday morning, said the country’s interior ministry. The militant group seeks to create an Islamic state in neighboring Nigeria’s northeast.

Quartz markets haiku

Foolish bull chasing
A dove up the mountainside
Careful, you can’t fly!

PARTNER MESSAGE FROM THE WEEK
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Quartz obsession interlude

Akshat Rathi on the science behind autonomous robots that can repair their own circuits. “Such tiny repairs could help modern electronics have a longer shelf life, but these proof-of-concept, autonomous nanobots have bigger potential. They could one day soon be used for self-healing materials and delivering drugs inside the human body.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

The US could have a 10-second tax return. An automated return maysound like a fantasy, but plenty of countries do it.

Virgin America may be too friendly for its own good. Richard Branson’s bet on more legroom and free Wi-Fi has failed to make a profit.

Political filters on dating apps are a dangerous development. But an exception may be needed for Donald Trump supporters.

Surprising discoveries

The cherry blossoms of spring are all about sex. Yet the brightest-blooming trees may be the ones that are sick or dying.

There’s a universal expression called the “not face.” The scowling expression of disapproval is found across all human cultures.

Microsoft’s racist AI bot made a bizarre reappearance. “Tay,” deactivated last week, briefly reappeared to tweet about smoking weed.

The future of art is a drone with a Sharpie. Michelangelo could have finished the Sistine Chapel so much more quickly.

You’re more likely to yawn around people you know. The contagiousness of yawning is a measure of empathy.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, cherry blossoms, and yawn suppressors to hi@qz.com. And download our new iPhone app for news throughout the day.

Refugee talks, turmoil in Brazil, real unicorns

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

UN real talk on refugees. Officials will discuss solutions to the refugee crisis in Geneva, including pledges by developed countries to take in displaced Syrians. The UN’s refugee agency has warned that one in 10 Syrian refugees will have to be resettled before the end of 2018.

US employment numbers. Payrolls processor ADP is expected to report(pdf) that private employers in the US added 194,000 jobs this month, after adding 214,000 jobs in February.

Micron Technology reports earnings. For its latest quarter the maker of memory chips is expected to report (pdf) revenue slightly below estimates, due to weak demand and lower average selling prices for chips used in personal computers.

While you were sleeping

Dilma Rousseff was left high and dry by a key partner. The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) said it would leave the coalition government ahead of likely impeachment hearings against Brazil’s president. Rousseff’s popularity has plummeted as Brazil sinks deeper into its worst economic crisis in decades.

Japan reported weak industrial production. Fears of a recession grew after numbers showed factory output in February falling 6.2% month-on-month—the biggest drop since March 2011, when an earthquake disrupted supply chains.

Air New Zealand said it might sell its stake in Virgin Australia. It’s the biggest shareholder in the struggling local airline, with a 25.9% stake worth $322 million (paywall). Sales of Virgin Australia shares were halted ahead of the announcement.

Donald Trump dropped his pledge to back a Republican other than himself for US president. Saying he’s been treated “very unfairly” by the party establishment, he made the announcement during a television town hall in Wisconsin.

Spotify launched in Indonesia. The world’s fourth most-populous country is a new battleground for streaming music, with Spotify and Apple Music facing off against several local services. The company is reportedly also looking at entering Japan and India.

Quartz markets haiku

The great silver dove,
Yellen flaps in the face of
all those sullen hawks

Quartz obsession interlude

Alice Truong on the developer who has Airbnb-hopped for the last three years. “He sets a monthly budget of roughly $1,400 to $1,500 for the Bay Area… the median rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco was $3,500, the highest in the country, according to apartment-listing site Zumper.” Read more.

Matters of debate

The difference between a Christian gunman and a Muslim jihadist is racism. The media has its own definition of terrorism.

The FBI-Apple showdown is a disaster for the Feds. The government sought a legal precedent, but exposed its own incompetence (paywall).

The return of old diseases is not just because of anti-vaxxers.Governments aren’t doing enough to make vaccinations available.

Surprising discoveries

Cultures that love minimalism are the most wasteful. The Danes, Dutch, Swiss, and Germans are the world’s most wasteful countries.

An Angolan rapper was imprisoned for plotting a coup at his book club. The group was discussing nonviolent resistance.

Unicorns were real just 29,000 years ago. But they probably looked more like rhinos than horses.

Men’s underwear is an economic indicator. Alan Greenspan theorizes that men put off buying undies if money is tight.

One in five employees would happily sell their work passwords. Good luck, corporate security managers.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Airbnb tips, and underwear deals to hi@qz.com. And download our new iPhone app for news throughout the day.

Lahore bombing, China-Czech ties, breaking the internet

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Chinese president Xi Jinping visits the Czech Republic. He will likely discuss his “One Belt, One Road” initiative—a modern update on the Silk Road trade routes linking China to Europe—when he meets with Czech president Miloš Zeman.

Former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich could get a US Supreme Court hearing. Blagojevich, who tried to sell an appointment to president Barack Obama’s former seat in the senate, is serving a 14-year jail sentence. The court might announce a decision to hear Blagojevich’s last-chance appeal.

Oculus Rift delivers its first virtual-reality headset to consumers. It’s a day VR fans and gamers have been waiting for since the company’s Kickstarter campaign in 2012. CEO Palmer Luckey delivered the first unit himself a few days ago, flying out to Alaska to do it.

The UN meets to discuss marine biodiversity. Inaugural negotiations over laws to govern bodies of water with no national jurisdiction begin in New York. Representatives will try to balance commercial interests with preserving wildlife diversity.

Over the weekend

A terrorist bombing in Pakistan killed at least 69, including children.The explosion occurred at Lahore’s Gulshan-i-Iqbal Park, a popular destination for families on Easter. A Taliban splinter group claimed credit, saying the attack targeted celebrating Christians.

Syrian government forces pushed ISIL fighters out of Palmyra.President Bashar al-Assad’s forces finally captured the ancient city with the aid of Russian air support, marking a setback for ISIL. After taking the city in 2015, ISIL destroyed iconic sections of Roman ruins that had been declared a world heritage site.

Senator Bernie Sanders challenged Hillary Clinton to another debate.Bolstered by his three caucus victories on Saturday, the US presidential contender said he wanted to debate the former secretary of state in New York ahead of the April 19 Democratic primary there. Early polls show Clinton with a strong lead in the state.

Japan lost contact with its innovative new space satellite. The satellite, named “Hitomi” and launched on Feb. 17, was equipped with X-ray telescopes to study black holes. A gas leak or battery explosion could havesent it tumbling end-over-end, pointing the antenna in the wrong direction for communication.

The World Bank gave Jordan a cheap $100 million loan. The long-term, almost-interest-free loan is meant to help create 100,000 jobs in Jordan for Syrian refugees and its own citizens. Such loans by the World Bank are among the newest tools used to finance education and job creation for refugees.

Quartz obsession interlude

Keith Collins on how one man broke the internet by deleting 11 lines of code: “The story of how 28-year-old Azer Koçulu briefly broke the internet shows how writing software for the web has become dependent on a patchwork of code that itself relies on the benevolence of fellow programmers. When that system breaks down, as it did last week, the consequences can be vast and unpredictable.” Read more.

Matters of debate

An implant is the next step toward ending heroin addiction. The medicine used has been taken orally for years, but an implant removes the human error that comes with relying on addicts to take a daily pill.

Europe needs to forge better links with Muslim communities. If the continent can’t bring them into society more effectively, it risks being destroyed.

Obama is the most merciless president in history when it comes to pardons. He’s granted the fewest of any full-term president since John Adams.

Surprising discoveries

Shakespeare’s skull is not with the rest of his skeleton. Radar scans of his grave suggest the playwright’s skull was stolen several centuries ago.

Saturn’s rings are younger than the dinosaurs. They were likely formed just 100 million years ago.

Syrian militias backed by the US military are fighting militias armed by US spies. Clashes among different US-backed groups underscore the challenges of intervening in Syria’s chaotic civil war.

Japanese ships killed 333 whales in the name of research.Conservationists say the hunt was called “scientific” simply to skirt international rules.

A woman lived in the Plaza for $500 a month for 35 years. The New York City luxury hotel once had monthly tenants, and she ended up with arent-controlled unit.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Shakespearean grave-robbing suspects, and Plaza infiltration tips tohi@qz.com. And download our new iPhone app for news throughout the day.

FinSentS Weekly Recap

Weekly Review of Headlines
● IMF: Economic Boost From Oil Prices Unlikely Until Rates Rise – CNBC

The slump in oil prices is unlikely to boost the world economy until interest rates start to rise — by which time the commodity may have recovered somewhat anyway, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday…Read More

● Brexit could trigger credit downgrade for UK’s biggest firms –Guardian

Britain’s biggest companies could face a credit downgrade – potentially forcing up their borrowing costs – should the UK vote to leave the EU in June, according to a report by a leading ratings agency…Read More

● German Growth Gains Momentum In Early 2016 – MarketWatch

Germany’s economic growth gained momentum during the first three months of the year due to stronger industrial output and higher private consumption, the finance ministry said.

● Japan cuts economic assessment as consumption stumbles –Rtrs

Japan’s government lowered its assessment of the economy in March for the first time in five months due to weakness in consumer spending, a move likely to reinforce views that more fiscal stimulus will be needed to keep the economy growing.

● Russia C.Bank’s Nabiullina: To Cut Key Rate As Inflation, Inflation Risks Fall – RTRS

The governor of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said on Thursday that Russia’s key rate would be cut as inflation and inflation risks fall.

● Oil security seen at risk by IEA on ‘historic’ spending cuts –BBG

An oil shock may be lurking around the corner as the price bust has hammered investment in future supply, according to the International Energy Agency.

● Emerging Markets-Eastern European Shares Fall 1% After Belgium Blasts – CNBC

Eastern European shares tumbled around 1 percent on Tuesday and emerging currencies weakened after blasts in Brussels sent Western bourses lower and supported the dollar.

● European Stocks Slump As Dollar Strength Cuts Oil, Mining Shares – MarketWatch

European stocks slumped for a fourth straight day, with commodity shares dropping as the U.S. dollar continued to march higher.

● Dollar Stays Supported In The Wake Of Fed Officials’ Comments – MarketWatch

The dollar’s rally began in the Asia trading, pressuring crude-oil prices which are denominated in dollars.

● China Premier Li: Has Enough Tools To Ensure Stable Economy – RTRS

China has enough policy tools to keep the economy stable despite “deep rooted” structural problems and downward pressure, Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday, channeling calm amid concerns about the country’s slowdown.

 

Stock Information
● $RTN

US Raytheon Wins Contract to Develop CHAMP Missile for Electronic War #RAYTHEON CO #SP500 More Details

● $TSLA

US Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Upgraded at Vetr Inc. #TESLA MOTORS INC #NASDAQMore Details

● $FE

US FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) Trading Up 0.8% #FIRSTENERGY CORP #SP500 More Details

● $FMS

AU Flinders Highway closed after acid spill #FLINDERS MINES LTD #ASX2000 More Details

● $601857

CH PetroChina : Cuts Back As Earnings Slide 67% #PETROCHINA CO LTD #APEX50 More Details

● $MATR

US Mattersight Corp (MATR) Sees Strong Trading Volume #MATTERSIGHT CORP #NASDAQ More Details

● $LGEN

LN Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN) Coverage Initiated at BNP Paribas #LEGAL & GEN GROUP PLC #STOXX600 More Details

● $VOD

LN Vodafone strengthens global partnership with Huawei #VODAFONE GROUP PLC #LDN100 More Details

● $UBS

US Euro to Pound Rally Overdone, According to UBS Citing Massive Risks for EUR Ahead #UBS AG #STOXX600 More Details

● $WEC

US Wisconsin Energy Corp (WEC) Trading 1.2% Higher #WISCONSIN ENERGY CORP #SP500 More Details

 

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Weekend edition—Encryption and Brussels, microscopic carvings, parrot witnesses

Good morning, Quartz readers!

Will unbreakable encryption keep us safer, or will it help terrorists carry out more attacks like the one this week in Brussels?

It’s too early to know if the Brussels bombers used encryption to communicate, according to the US attorney-general (though that didn’t stoppoliticians proclaiming they had). We do know, however, that terrorists don’t need encryption to kill and maim.

ISIL’s strategy in last year’s Paris attacks and others was simple: avoid trackable electronic communications like email and messaging apps in favor of in-person meetings and disposable devices, or “burner phones,” that are quickly activated, used briefly, and then dumped. Communications from the Paris attacks were reportedly (paywall) largely unencrypted, and investigators have found much of their intelligence through informants, wiretaps, and device-tracking rather than by trying to decipher secret messages.

That’s not to say that terrorists won’t use encryption to carry out heinous acts. They will. But encryption is by now a fact of life: your apps, credit cards, web browsers and smartphones run encryption algorithms every day. Soon, perhaps, they will be unbreakable.

Governments face two unpalatable options: force companies to build “backdoors” for their spies, as the FBI has tried to get Apple to do, or accept encryption as a fact of life while finding better ways to stop bad guys. That decision may have already been made for them; third-party encryption software is readily available, so Apple or no Apple, terrorists will find ways to use it.

It’s important to remember that for ISIL, the carnage is a means to an end. The goal of its few but painful attacks is to weaken faith in open societies’ ability to protect their citizens, undermine their democratic principles, and thus push them into more closely resembling the theocratic surveillance state ISIL wants to build. That’s not a war the West, or any democracy, can afford to lose.—Michael Coren

Five things on Quartz we especially liked

The artist who works only in between heartbeats. Kassia St Clair profiles Graham Short, a British artist who has hand-engraved the Lord’s Prayer on a pinhead, Queen Elizabeth on a gold speck in the eye of a needle, and other works you need a microscope to see. Nobody else goes to the lengths he does, he says, “and I don’t blame them either.”

Olive Garden’s double standards on poverty. Though the US restaurant chain gives millions of meals a year to the poor, many of its own staff are so poor they need food stamps—and they aren’t allowed to touch surplus food. Deena Shanker on a restaurant industry whose low-wage policies make for cheap meals but cost taxpayers billions of dollars a year in assistance programs.

Is modern parenting giving kids depression? The data show a rapid rise in mental-health problems among young people in the US and UK in the past few years. Jenny Anderson talks to psychologists and outlines the theories about how the changing nature of play, parenting, marriage, schooling, technology, and other factors are stressing kids out.

Europe’s border problem. The EU’s open internal borders are being blamed for the ease with which terrorists can attack cities like Brussels. Actually, Aamna Mohdin explains, the borders aren’t open enough; in national security and intelligence, the EU still functions largely as separate countries, and that’s hindering its anti-terrorism efforts.

The case against paying college athletes. With every “March Madness” basketball season the cry goes up for US college athletes to be paid instead of giving their labor for free. That’s solving the wrong problem, argues Allison Schrager; paying athletes in education is a fine idea, but the way it’s being done now is letting them down.

Also: Remember to check out the new season of Actuality, our podcast, which interviews entrepreneurs and scientists doing things that “they said couldn’t be done.”

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

The parrot who saw too much. Could a talking macaw hold the clue to a grisly murder? Could it serve as a witness? Could it be offered witnessprotection? Laurel Braitman delves into the obscure and little-known history of animals in criminal justice, for Atlas Obscura.

Wikipedia’s Angolan piracy dilemma. In a country where internet access is otherwise wildly expensive, Angolans have ingeniously repurposed the “zero-rated” (i.e., free) services from Facebook and Wikipedia to construct vast clandestine file-sharing networks. Jason Koebler reports for Motherboard on a tale of first-world laws and ethics stumped by third-world innovation.

The case for US drug legalization. Dan Baum’s essay in Harper’s begins with a bombshell—the Nixon White House’s war on drugs was explicitly designed as a campaign against black people and leftists. National legalization may sound like an impossible utopia, Baum writes, but it would work with “creativity and management,” two things the US prides itself on.

Desperately seeking surgery. It took Stephen Phillips five months to find a set of doctors he trusted to perform “the mother of all surgeries”—a 16-hour endeavor, comparable to having 10 abdominal operations—to cure a rare appendix cancer. Eric Broodman for Stat explains a treatment so brutal and risky only about a hundred American hospitals offer it.

The fight for a $14 billion athlete. Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors basketball team are breaking records with unconventional play. They’re also disrupting the apparel business. ESPN’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss explains how Nike lost the endorsement of Curry, the most marketable athlete in the US, to Under Armour by making the same mistakes old-school coaches did.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, microscopic engravings, and parrot testimony tohi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.