Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 09/05/2013

T H U R S D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 9, 2013
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 985.3K)

Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 1231.3K)

Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 716.5K)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected (expected 335K; previous 324K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -18K)

Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3019000)

Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +12K)

10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade

Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous -0.3%)

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.2%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.8%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (expected 1865B; previous 1777B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (expected +88B; previous +43B)

12:00 PM ET. April ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 15M)

Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 10M)

Primary Dealer Borrowings

Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.

Discount Window Borrowings (previous 41M)

Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 27M)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.3T)

US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 310.75B)

Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.95T)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off November’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2855.53 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at
2967.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing near 3084.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2908.25. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2855.53.

The June S&P 500 was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as
it consolidates some of the rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year’s rally, upside
targets will be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted
territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1581.64 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at 1631.20. Second resistance will be hard to project
with the index trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1602.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1581.64.

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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

June T-bonds was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-tern. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement
level of the March-May rally crossing at 145-02 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-28 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 147-28. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 149-21.
First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at
146-04. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-May rally
crossing at 145-02.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

June crude oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April’s low,
April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.13 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is April’s high crossing at 98.06. Second
resistance is February’s high crossing at 99.52. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 94.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 92.13.

June heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the February-April uptrend
line crossing near 294.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 284.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the February-April uptrend line crossing near
294.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the
February-April-decline crossing at 298.06. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 287.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 284.22.

June unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally
off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
June extends the rally off last Wednesday’s low, the 38% retracement level of
the February-May decline crossing at 290.15 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.93 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level
of the February-May decline crossing at 290.15. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 296.67. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.93. Second support is this month’s
low crossing at 268.79.

June Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If June extends this month’s decline, the 50%
retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 3.830 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.195 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 4.195. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at
4.457. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 3.895. Second support is
the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 3.830.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates
some of the rally off May’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June
renews the decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of the
February-April rally crossing at 80.84 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.40 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 82.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.32.
First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing
at 81.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April
rally crossing at 80.84.

The June Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
June renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the
February-April decline crossing at 133.58 is the next upside target. Closes
below last Friday’s low crossing at 130.35 would confirm that a top has been
posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 132.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April
decline crossing at 133.58. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at
130.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 129.59.

The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range
of the past seven-days around the 50% retracement level of the January-March
decline crossing at 1.5564. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s low, the 62% retracement level
of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5738 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5411 would confirm that
the short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional
weakness near-term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the
January-March decline crossing at 1.5564.Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5738. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5411. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 1.5192.

The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some
of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish
signaling that a low might be in or is near. If June extends this month’s
decline, the late-April low crossing at .10532 is the next downside target. If
June renews the rally off the late-April low, April’s high crossing at .10869
is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing
at .10820. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at .10869. First support
was Tuesday’s low crossing at .10600. Second support is the late-April low
crossing at .10532.

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to higher in quiet trading overnight and
remains poised to extend the rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the
75% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 100.24 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.35
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at 99.77. Second resistance is the 75% retracement
level of the January-March decline crossing at 100.24. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 99.19. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 98.35.

The June Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .10383 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews this year’s
decline, monthly support crossing at .9867 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10383. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at .10809. First support is April’s low crossing at
.10008. Second support is monthly support crossing at .9867.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

June gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past
two weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1484.80 are needed to
renew the rally off April’s low and would open the door for additional gains
during the first half of May. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1438.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 1484.80. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 1590.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1438.30. Second support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.

July silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past
two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 24.835 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If July renews this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at 18.756
is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
24.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 28.070. First
support is April’s low crossing at 21.120. Second support is monthly support
crossing at 18.756.

July copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some
of this month’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, April’s high
crossing at 347.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 323.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 339.90. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at 347.15. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 323.25. Second support is May’s low crossing at 304.25. Third
support is weekly support crossing at 299.40.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

SOFTS: July sugar closed down 19 points at 17.45 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the sugar market today, yet sugar
sold off anyway, which is another bearish clue. There are
also reports of a big sugar crop coming out of Brazil. The
sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage.

July coffee closed up 105 points at 143.75 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh
seven-week high close today. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. The
coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, some “basing” at lower price levels
could be an early clue this market has bottomed out.

July cocoa closed up $6 at $2,402 a ton today. Prices
closed nearer the session high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for the cocoa market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. The cocoa
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A two-month-

old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

July cotton closed up 61 points at 87.76 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart and hit a
fresh three-week high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the cotton market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Cotton
bulls today regained the slight near-term technical
advantage.

July orange juice closed up 500 points at $1.4395 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
and bargain hunting. The FCOJ bulls have the overall near-

term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today.

July lumber futures closed up $0.40 at $338.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend
is in place on the daily bar chart.

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

July corn was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Wednesday’s
close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.36 3/4 confirms that a
short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the
April 1st gap crossing at 6.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is
the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76. Second resistance is March’s high crossing
at 7.18 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.26 1/2. Second
support is April’s low crossing at 6.10.

July wheat was fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the reaction
low crossing at 6.87 3/4 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally
off April’s low, March’s high crossing at 7.40 1/2 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4. Second resistance
is March’s high crossing at 7.40 1/2. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 6.87 3/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 7.60 1/4.

July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July
renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the
December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. Second resistance is
the 38% retracement level of the December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.57 3/4. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 7.37 1/2.

July Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 8.08 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening
the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off
April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at
8.53 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high
crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 8.08 1/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for
steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this
morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish again signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off
April’s low, the late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4 is the next upside
target. If July renews the decline off the late-April high, the reaction low
crossing at 13.41 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4. Second resistance is March’s high
crossing at 14.63 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 13.65 1/2.
Second support is the late-April’s low crossing at 13.41.

July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off
April’s low, March’s high crossing at 436.20 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 402.40 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness
near-term. First resistance is April’s high crossing at 422.70. Second
resistance is March’s high crossing at 436.20. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 402.40. Second support is April’s low crossing at
388.00.

July soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of
the past two months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 50.42 are needed
to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this year’s decline, the
50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.42.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 51.24. First support is April’s
low crossing at 48.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.62 at $120.20
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
four-week low today. Fundamentally, worries about slack
consumer demand for beef have hit the futures market hard
recently. Cattle futures bears have the solid overall near-

term technical advantage, too.

August feeder cattle closed down $1.22 at $145.32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
two-week low. Prices are now back near the contract low.
The feeder bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage.

June lean hogs closed up $0.47 at $91.77 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the hog market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer.
The hog bulls are on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears.

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T H A N K   Y O U
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