Weekend edition—Women in power, the human cost of tea, illusory time

Good morning, Quartz readers!

If Hillary Clinton, now officially the Democratic candidate, wins election in November, she’ll make history, and not just as America’s first female president. It would mean that for the first time ever, three of the world’s most powerful democracies would be led by women: the US, the UK, and Germany.

What might that mean? Management experts studying leadership saywomen are more collaborative, more inclusive leaders. They build teams; in Clinton’s words, they understand it “takes a village” to run a country, and the world. They do not believe, as Donald Trump does (and not just him: many men do), that they “alone can fix it.”

The US, UK, and Germany all face the big challenges of the rich world today: immigration, terrorism at home and abroad, and a revolt against the one percent. It’s easy to imagine Clinton sitting down with Britain’s Theresa May and Germany’s Angela Merkel to hash out solutions to shared problems.

It’s also easy to see this troika of women developing a cohesive approach towards Russia, Iran, China, Syria, and other countries whose interests often run counter to those of the West. A Trump in that mix? He and his associates look uncomfortably cosy with Russia, and a Trump-Putin axis would be a lot more dangerous for the world than a Clinton-Merkel-May one.

Gender should not be the deciding factor in electing someone to the world’s most powerful office. But the female leadership style Clinton espouses seems more attuned to the needs of the world now. One thing’s for sure: She’s unlikely to brag about the size of her hands, or anything else.—Janet Guyon

FIVE THINGS ON QUARTZ WE ESPECIALLY LIKED

The horrendous human cost of Assam tea. No decent tea shop in the world is complete without its pungent fragrance. But as Devjyot Ghoshal discovers, the Assam region’s 100-year history—from being set up by the British to the Indian government’s mismanagement—has stopped it from taking care of its own people. Thousands of expectant mothers who labor in its plantations have died as a result.

The neuroscience of cool. Marc Bain traces the fascinating evolution of the concept of “cool,” from its introduction (via jazz culture and James Dean) as a symbol of outsiderism, to its mainstreaming, codification, and quantification by marketers and even neuroscientists, who can map in the brain the emotional reactions evoked by looking at cool things.

How the US screwed up chip cards. Decades behind some other countries, the US finally introduced credit and debit cards with chips for added security last year—and it’s been a disaster. Ian Kar explains the muddle of mixed incentives and poor decisions that caused it.

China’s lethal floods and its lethally incompetent officials. For the second time in a month flooding in rural China has killed people, and excessive, unregulated building is being blamed for making towns vulnerable to extreme weather. Echo Huang and Zheping Huang unpick how it came about in Hebei province.

The Clintons and their “pantsuits.” Jenni Avins deliciously skewers the convention of writing about political wives’ wardrobes with a button-by-button dissection of Bill Clinton’s navy-blue two-piece. And Marc Bain on the long feminist historical legacy of the white suit Hillary Clinton wore to accept her nomination.

FIVE THINGS ELSEWHERE THAT MADE US SMARTER

Malaysia’s stolen billions. A Swiss banker and a muckraking British journalist helped crack open a global financial scandal that has engulfed Malaysia’s prime minister. Randeep Ramesh details for The Guardian how the unlikely duo brought a cache of documents to light that exposed the billions stolen from 1MDB, the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund.

For better policing, add female cops. The vast majority of mass killers, domestic abusers, and sexual assailants are male, and most of their victims female. Yet just 9% of cops worldwide are women. While racism is the undercurrent of recent unrest, writes Sarah Smarsh in Longreads, “toxic masculinity is the force that makes it lethal.”

The source of Rio’s filthy water. Guanabara Bay, which will host Olympic events such as distance swimming and sailing, is so dirty that doctors are warning athletes not to get water in their mouths. But the Sarapuí River that feeds it starts clean and drinkable. The New York Times’ John Branch describes how the river’s journey through areas rife with poverty now threatens the athletes’ health and Rio’s image.

Is Germany at the end of its golden age? Angela Merkel inherited an economy on the upswing and guided the country through a decade of prosperity and self-confidence. But immigration, terrorism and economic shocks have knocked Germany off its pedestal of well-being, and Konstantin Richter at Politico argues it may not climb back on.

The passage of time might be all in our heads. There’s a heated debate in physics over whether the distinction between past, present, and future—and our perception of moving through them—is physical or just an illusion, Dan Falk writes in The Atlantic. It hinges on the idea of a “block universe,” a static block of space-time in which any flow of time must be a mental construct.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, missing Malaysian billions, and historically meaningful pantsuits to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

#Clinton’s big speech, #Alphabet and #Amazon soar, sheepdogs vs. robots

Good morning, Quartz readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND

The US releases second-quarter GDP figures. Economists expect the nation’s gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, the fastest in a year, thanks in large part to strong consumer spending. On the downside, they anticipate weak exports and moderate inventory accumulation.

Tesla marks the opening of its “gigafactory” in Nevada. Select Tesla owner will get a tour of the sprawling facility just east of Reno, similar to the one Quartz took earlier this week. The complex isn’t entirely finished, but it’s slated to eventually become the world’s largest building (by footprint).

Pope Francis visits Auschwitz. During a five-day visit to Poland, the pontiff will pay tribute to the victims of the Nazi death camp, in a gesture intended to improve Catholic-Jewish relations.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

The US’s Democratic party wrapped up its national convention. Retired general John Allen gave a bombastic endorsement of Hillary Clinton for president. The father of a Muslim US soldier who died in action asked Donald Trump, through the cameras, if he’d ever actually read the US constitution. Clinton, in the night’s main speech, warned against electing “a man you can bait with a tweet.”

The Bank of Japan opted for a modest dose of monetary stimulus. Confounding expectations, the central bank neither decreased its main interest rate nor altered its targets for buying government bonds, but it will significantly increase its purchases of exchange-traded stock funds. In February the bank surprised markets by setting interest rates below zero for the first time.

Alphabet and Amazon turned in excellent quarters. The Google parent’s earnings and revenue easily topped expectations, sending shares up by 5% in after-hours trading. Amazon posted its third straight quarterly profit, thanks to its rapidly growing, if rather unsexy, cloud computing unit.

Syria’s Nusra Front militants announced their split from al-Qaeda. Leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani said in a video message that the move was intended to remove the pretext for bombings by the US and Russia. Washington called it a “rebranding exercise” that would do nothing to change its plans.

Microsoft announced jobs cuts. The software giant will lay off 1,850 workers in its struggling smartphone business, mostly in Finland, where in 2014 it bought Nokia. The acquisition was supposed to help Microsoft better compete against Apple and Samsung, but the results have fallen well short of expectations.

QUARTZ MARKETS HAIKU

Good Google earnings
But the market seems to be
So very sleepy.

QUARTZ OBSESSION INTERLUDE

Akshat Rathi on the science or spin behind a new Alzheimer’s drug: “To understand the hype around TauRx’s ‘breakthrough’ drug we must understand just why Alzheimer’s is such a hard disease to treat… The drugs that exist to treat Alzheimer’s only relieve symptoms temporarily and they don’t work in all patients.” Read more here.

MATTERS OF DEBATE

Hacking the vote could be next on Russia’s to-do list. US voting machines and election systems are woefully vulnerable.

3D printing is a “new industrial revolution.” New design techniques and on-demand manufacturing could change everything.

Voting with your heart is immoral. Fervent idealism makes voters value loyalty to a candidate over the consequences of their choices.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

Add sheepdogs to robot hit list. SwagBot, designed for farms, can herd animals on its own or with the help of drones.

The ice bucket challenge worked. The social media stunt funded a breakthrough in ALS research.

Silicon Valley banks are handing out no-money-down mortgages. That could spell trouble if the intertwined tech and real estate bubbles burst.

A skydiver is jumping out of a plane without a parachute. After falling 25,000 feet, he plans to land in a giant net.

African startups are taking advantage of Google’s blind spot.They’re creating sophisticated apps for dumb phones.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, robot herders, and safety net proposals to hi@qz.com. You can download our iPhone app or follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

CWS Market Review – July 29, 2016

CWS Market Review July 29, 2016   “If markets were rational, I’d be waiting tables for a living.” – Warren Buffett Fortunately for us and for Warren, the market ain’t so rational. In fact, sometimes I think it’s defiantly anti-rational. Consider that for the last 11 days, the stock market has closed up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down and up. I can almost sense a trend. This is one of the longest “alternating” streaks on record. Not only that, but the market has reverted to its pre-Brexit somnolence. The daily spread between highs and lows has nearly vanished. Ryan Detrick notes that over the last 11 days, the S&P 500 has traded within a tiny range of just 0.92%. For 11 days, that’s one of the narrowest ranges in decades. Most of the headlines this week have been dominated by the Democrats’ convention in Philadelphia, but it’s been an eventful one for Wall Street. We had six more Buy List earnings reports. I’ll go over all of them in a bit. We also had a Federal Reserve meeting. The central decided, again, to forego raising interest rates. I’ll also preview three more Buy List earnings reports for next week. But first, let’s look at this week’s batch of earnings. Wabtec Guides Lower, Express Scripts Guides Higher On Monday morning, Wabtec (WAB) reported Q3 earnings of $1.05 per share. That was three cents below Wall Street’s consensus. This was a tough quarter for railroad-services company. Quarterly revenue came in at $723.6 million, which was below estimates of $806.48 million. WAB’s overall business is doing well, but their freight business is under some pressure. Raymond T. Betler, Wabtec’s president and chief executive officer, said: “Our Transit business is performing well, with revenue growth, improved profitability and a strong backlog. Our Freight business, however, continues to be affected by overall rail-industry conditions and the sluggish global economy. In this environment we are focused on controlling what we can by aggressively reducing costs, generating cash and investing in our growth opportunities, including acquisitions. As demonstrated by our first-half operating margin of 18.4 percent and cash from operations at 14 percent of revenues, we are managing the business well in these market conditions.” Wabtec lowered its full-year guidance range to $4 to $4.20 per share. The previous range was $4.30 to $4.50 per share. The stock dropped below $66 during Monday’s trading, but has since gained back some lost ground. This is a disappointing report from Wabtec, but I’m not ready to throw in the towel. This is a solid company. This week, I’m lowering my Buy Below on Wabtec to $75 per share. After the closing bell on Monday, Express Scripts (ESRX) reported Q2 earnings of $1.57 per share. That matched Wall Street’s consensus on the nose. It was also in the dead center of Express’s own range of $1.55 to $1.59 per share. The company didn’t have an update on its acrimonious lawsuit against Anthem. I was pleased to see optimistic guidance from Express. For Q3, they expect earnings between $1.72 and $1.76 per share. Wall Street was at $1.72. Express also bumped up the low end of its full-year forecast by two pennies. True, it’s not much, but we’ll take it. The pharmacy-benefits manager now expects 2016 earnings to range between $6.33 and $6.43 per share. That means the stock is going for about 12 times this year’s earnings. That’s not a bad deal. I’m raising my Buy Below on Express Scripts to $81 per share. CR Bard Raises Guidance but Ford Disappoints CR Bard (BCR) gave us another very good earnings report. For Q2, the medical-devices company made $2.54 per share. That beat the Street by seven cents per share. They also topped their own guidance. which was for $2.43 to $2.47 per share. Quarterly sales rose 8% to $931.5 million. Not including forex, sales were up 9%. Timothy M. Ring, chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “We continue to see strong results as we prioritize product leadership across the globe. Our commitment to innovation and product differentiation, along with a focus on delivering economic benefits to the healthcare system, have driven global demand for our products, and our targeted investments in emerging markets continue to expand our presence internationally. We believe this investment approach positions us well to continue to provide attractive returns to our shareholders.” Now for guidance. For Q3, Bard sees earnings between $2.51 and $2.55 per share. They see full-year earnings coming in between $10.10 and $10.20 per share. That’s an increase from the previous guidance of $10.05 to $10.18 per share. Bard is clearly moving in the right direction. I’m keeping my Buy Below on Bard at $231 per share. On Thursday, we had a big disappointment from Ford Motor (F). For Q3, the company earned 52 cents per share, which was eight cents below Wall Street’s forecast. The automaker also warned that the second half of this year might be weak. To its credit, Ford is standing by its previous forecast, which is to beat last year’s pre-tax profit of $10.8 billion. To be fair, this quarter wasn’t so bad, but it was helped by generous incentives. That’s useful short-term strategy, but it’s not a long-term fix. “We’re committed to meeting our guidance, but it is at risk,” Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told reporters Thursday. The company now says it’s unlikely that U.S. vehicle sales will break last year’s record, and Shanks predicted further contraction in 2017. “We don’t see growth, at least in the near term.” After a record streak of six straight years of annual U.S. auto-sales growth, Ford is joining analysts who are skeptical that the record set in 2015 will be topped this year. Consumer demand has gone slack, forcing automakers to dial up deals to lure buyers to showrooms. For the first six months, industry-wide light-vehicle sales rose just 1.5 percent, while incentives jumped 13 percent, according to researcher Autodata Corp. (…) The U.S. auto market slowed sooner than Ford anticipated, Shanks said. The automaker now sees U.S. auto sales of 17.4 million to 17.9 million vehicles, down from an earlier forecast of about 18 million. Excluding medium and heavy trucks, the new projection translates to a light-vehicle market of 17.1 million to 17.6 million, compared with last year’s record 17.5 million. “We do think the U.S. is coming down from what we expected,” Shanks said. “We saw higher U.S. incentives — that was for the industry and for us. The industry increased, and we increased in line with the industry.” On Thursday, shares of Ford dropped 8.2% to close at $12.71. Frankly, this was a bad showing from Ford. I’m going to drop my Buy Below price on Ford down to $14. Don’t worry that the dividend is at risk. The stock currently yields 4.7%. The Strong Yen Lifts AFLAC I’m happy to see that AFLAC (AFL) had another stronger quarter. For Q2, the duck stock earned $1.71 per share in operating earnings. (Remember, with insurance companies, it’s often better to look at operating earnings rather than net earnings.) That beat estimates by three cents per share. Once again, the stronger yen helped AFLAC’s bottom line, which is a welcome change from what we’ve experienced the last few years. Last quarter, the strong yen added nine cents to AFLAC’s operating earnings. Not counting currency, operating EPS rose by 8% last quarter. AFLAC stood by its full-year operating EPS guidance of $6.17 to $6.41, but that’s based on last year’s average yen, which was 120.99 to the dollar. The yen is now at 104! The company said that if the yen stays between 100 and 110, they see Q3 coming in between $1.58 and $1.86 per share. That’s a very large range. AFLAC is usually a straight shooter (or quacker?) when it comes to their guidance, so maybe they’re as confused as the rest of the currency market. Either way, this is a good company. I’m lifting my Buy Below on AFLAC to $75 per share. After the bell on Thursday, Stericycle (SRCL) reported Q2 earnings of $1.18 per share. The medical-waste company matched Wall Street’s estimate. Revenues came in light, and the stock took a dive in the after-hours market. Frankly, I haven’t had enough time to scrutinize the earnings. Their press release doesn’t contain a lot of information, and I’d rather listen to the earnings call before I offer more specifics. But I’ll say that the numbers are largely what I expected from Stericycle. I promise to have more info on SRCL next week. Three Buy List Earnings Reports Next Week This year looks to be Fiserv’s (FISV) 30th straight year of double-digit earnings growth. The company made $3.87 per share last year, and they see 2016 coming in between $4.32 and $4.44 per share. That works out to a growth rate of 11.6% to 14.7%. Fiserv reports after the close on Tuesday, August 2. Wall Street’s consensus is for $1.07 per share. Cerner (CERN) didn’t start off as a strong performer for us this year, but it has rallied in the last few weeks. For Q2, the healthcare IT company said it expects earnings between 56 and 59 cents per share. For all of 2016, Cerner’s guidance is $2.30 to $2.40 per share. TheStreet said that Cerner might be an acquisition target for IBM. Cerner also reports on Tuesday afternoon. Wall Street expects 57 cents per share. Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) will be our final Buy List stock to report this earnings season. Q2 earnings are due out on Friday morning, August 5. Cognizant said they expect Q2 earnings of 80 to 82 cents per share. Wall Street expects 82 cents per share. For all of 2016, CTSH expects $3.32 to $3.44 per share. That’s all for now. Our first look at Q2 GDP comes later today. Next week, earnings season for our Buy List wraps up. We’ll also get some of the key turn-of-the-month econ reports. The July ISM report comes out on Monday. Personal income and spending are on Tuesday. Then on Friday, we’ll get the jobs report for July. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review! – Eddy Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 eight times in the last nine years. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.

2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

#Apple’s iPhone slump, Kerry in Manila, #Starbucks fedoras

Good morning, Quartz readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY

The Philippines and the US talk about the South China Sea. In Manila secretary of state John Kerry will encourage Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte to engage in dialog and negotiations with Beijing over the contested waterway. Tensions have increased after an international tribunal ruled heavily against China’s sweeping claims to the strategic waterway.

The Federal Reserve holds off on a rate hike. Market volatility and uncertainties around Brexit will play a role as the US central bank is expected to keep interest rates stable. A rate hike could still happen as early as September.

Facebook’s quarterly results. Platforms like Instagram and Messenger are expected to drive the social media giant’s revenue and earnings. Analysts expect user growth of 15.3% from a year ago. Soft drink companies Coca-Cola and Dr Pepper Snapple also report earnings.

SPONSOR CONTENT BY RAISIN

European households have accumulated more than €10 trillion in savings accounts. However, many investors fail to take advantage of the highest interest rates available and earn virtually no return on their money. Increased awareness around European interest rates could help optimize savings and increase returns for savers. Here are a few ways investors can benefit from higher interest rates.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

Hillary Clinton officially became the Democratic nominee for US president. Her husband Bill called her the “best change-maker I have ever known” on an historic night that saw a woman nominated to lead a major-party presidential ticket for the first time in the nation’s history. Now comes the hard part.

Apple’s iPhone slump got worse. Quarterly profit plunged by 27% and revenue was down by 14.6% as smartphone sales slowed, especially in China. But the results weren’t quite as ugly as Wall Street expected, sending Apple shares higher in after-hours trading.

Twitter disappointed investors again. The social media firm (remember when it was called a “microblogging” service?) missed quarterly revenue targets and warned of more trouble to come. Twitter shares were down 9% in after-hours trading, and if CEO Jack Dorsey can’t end this slump a sale may become inevitable.

LeEco bought Vizio for $2 billion. The Chinese streaming video company will operate the California-based flatscreen TV maker’s business as a subsidiary, but will spin off its data business into a new private company. LeEco’s billionaire founder Jia Yueting wants his company to be the Netflix, Apple, and Tesla of China.

QUARTZ MARKETS HAIKU

Apple earnings plunged
iPhones aren’t selling well
But better than feared

QUARTZ OBSESSION INTERLUDE

Ananya Bhattacharya on the robot that’s helping the disabled feed themselves: “Obi includes a placemat with a dinner-plate-sized dish with four compartments on top, which mount onto a white platform. Attached to one side of the sleek, white platform is a robotic arm fitted with a spoon. Once placed on a table in front of the recipient, a caregiver can grasp the arm and teach Obi the delivery location.” Read more here.

MATTERS OF DEBATE

Russia will field the cleanest team in Rio. The International Olympic Committee is subjecting Russian athletes to a rigorous testing program.

America shouldn’t drop the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Despite opposition at home, Asian allies would see it as a betrayal.

China’s anger at the treatment of its journalists in India is stunningly hypocritical. Beijing has a long history of expelling and censoring foreign journalists.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

Lufthansa is selling airline tickets on Airbnb. The airline is willing to try just about anything to turn its business around.

Latvian women and Dutch men are the tallest people in the world. The US has been dropping in height rankings, suggesting a major public health problem.

Political turmoil is good for pizza delivery. Civil unrest and protests are making Americans more interested in ordering in.

The US Navy used Pokémon Go as a recruitment tool. It later retracted the ads, admitting they weren’t quite in line with its mission.

Starbucks baristas are now allowed to wear fedoras. It’s part of a corporate move to improve employee morale.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, political pizza, and barista fedoras to hi@qz.com. You can download our iPhone app or follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

Feuding Democrats, Japan mass stabbing, cockroach milk

Good morning, Quartz readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY

John Kerry meets with Rodrigo Duterte. The US secretary of state is visiting the Philippines for two days for talks with the controversial Filipino president, focused on the dispute between China and its neighbors over South China Sea claims. Duterte has long been suspicious of the US over an explosion in Davao City when he was mayor there in 2002.

Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve discuss interest rates.The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day gathering. With strong employment data, more members will argue for a rate increase hike this year. Others will urge a more cautious approach and warn against stoking rate hike expectations.

Apple tries to beat very low expectations. Analysts are feeling quite gloomy about the tech giant, which is expected to post a 15% decline in revenue from a year ago as iPhone sales dip and business in China slows. Twitter also reports earnings, and indications are pointing to yet another weak quarter.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

The Democratic National Convention opened in Philadelphia.In support of Hillary Clinton, senator Elizabeth Warren accused Donald Trump of trying to divide people with hate and fear. Bernie Sanders urged his supporters—many angry after leaked emails suggested the party undermined him—to unite behind Clinton. Michelle Obama said Clinton would create a better future for America’s children.

Solar Impulse 2 completed its journey around the world. The Swiss-engineered aircraft landed back at the starting point, Abu Dhabi. It has traveled some 40,000 km (25,000 m) powered by 17,000-plus solar cells in the day and lithium polymer batteries at night since it took off in March 2015. “The future is clean,” said pilot Bertrand Piccard after landing. “Let’s take it further.”

Nineteen people were killed in a horrific mass stabbing in Japan. Police say dozens were also injured in the attack, which occurred at a facility for disabled people in the city of Sagamihara. The attacker reportedly said he wanted people with disabilities to disappear. Officials ruled out a link to terrorism.

South Sudan president Salva Kiir found a new first vice president. Former peace negotiator Taban Deng Gai replaces former rebel Riek Machar, a fierce rival of the president who acquired his post as part of a peace deal. Supporters of the two men clashed a few weeks ago, leaving hundreds dead and threatening to revive a civil war.

QUARTZ MARKETS HAIKU

There’s just too much oil
It’s piling up everywhere
And that’s why it’s cheap

QUARTZ OBSESSION INTERLUDE

Devjyot Ghoshal on the pregnant women dying in India’s tea plantations: “Assam teas are also supplied to makers of major global brands such as Liptons, Twinings and Tetley… Yet Assam’s prized tea industry has turned into a veritable death trap for thousands of expectant mothers. Most of them belong to tribal communities that were brought to work in the tea gardens over a century ago.” Read more here.

MATTERS OF DEBATE

Yahoo is a cautionary tale about waiting too long to sell. The company turned down a $45 billion Microsoft offer, then sold its operational business for a mere $4.8 billion.

Counterpoint: Yahoo shareholders actually got a pretty good deal. Marissa Mayer couldn’t turn around a dying business, but in the end it was worth far more than zero.

“Hustle stats” at work would recognize the contributions of women. Simply “leaning in” isn’t for everyone.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

Boeing thinks airlines will need 30,000 new pilots a year. Asia in particular is expected to drive global demand.

All life can be traced back to one single-cell bacterium. LUCA (the Last Universal Common Ancestor) lived in deep sea vents(paywall) four billion years ago.

Kids are accidentally ingesting marijuana in Colorado. Calls to the regional poison center were up over 500% from 2009.

Human breast milk isn’t just for humans… Moms create complex sugars solely to feed bacteria in the baby’s microbiome.

…And cockroach milk could be the next superfood. One breed produces a protein-rich “nourishing secretion” that could besynthesized for humans.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, cockroach milk samples, and universal common ancestors to hi@qz.com You can download our iPhone app or follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

Hillary’s convention, Japan’s export woes, cuteness studies

Good morning, Quartz readers!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY

The US Democratic National Convention kicks off. First lady Michelle Obama and senator Bernie Sanders will both give speeches at the convention in Philadelphia, where the first day will carry a “United Together” theme. Later this week Michael Bloomberg will speak, endorsing presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton.

The Arab League summit meets in Mauritania. The organization, which brings together over 20 Arab countries, will focus on terrorism and national security. Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and King Salman of Saudi Arabia are both expected to attend, as will Sundanese president Omar al-Bashir, despite the warrant for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court.

Verizon acquires Yahoo for $4.8 billion. The US wireless carrier has been expanding online content and advertising since last year’s AOL deal, and sees value in Yahoo’s billion users, even though other investors do not. The deal will be announced before markets open in New York.

OVER THE WEEKEND

The head of the Democratic National Committee resigned over embarrassing emails. Debbie Wasserman Schultz said she will leave her post as DNC chairwoman after the US Democratic party’s convention this week. Emails leaked on Friday suggest the party undermined Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign, while aiding Hillary Clinton’s—just as he had accused it of doing.

Japan reported its export numbers for June. Shipments fell 7.9% from a year earlier, the ninth consecutive drop, suggesting a still-tepid economic recovery. The strong yen is hurting many key Japanese companies, making their products less competitively priced overseas. The Bank of Japan will meet later this week to ponder more monetary stimulus.

Nintendo’s shares plunged after it warned Pokemon Go won’t boost earnings much. The struggling gaming giant has a hit with the smartphone game, but it warned late Friday the game will have a limited impact on its earnings. Shares fell as much as 18% early on Monday, after a big rally in the weeks following the game’s debut and runaway success.

An ISIL attack killed more than 80 people in Afghanistan.Suicide bombers struck a rally by mostly Shiite Muslims in the capital Kabul on Saturday, injuring hundreds in addition to the fatalities. ISIL described the assault, the nation’s deadliest since 2001, as a “martyrdom attack” on Shiites.

QUARTZ OBSESSION INTERLUDE

Olivia Goldhill on why scientific research in behavioral genetics still makes people feel uncomfortable: “Think of someone whose political ideology leads them to ignore and groundlessly reject science. Typically, this often describes those on the right of the political spectrum, where climate change, women’s reproductive health, and even evolution are routinely dismissed. But a massive and fast growing field in science—behavioral genetics—has a huge body of conclusive evidence that, at first reading, seems at odds with left-wing ideology.” Read more here.

MATTERS OF DEBATE

Donald Trump is terrifyingly similar to Vladimir Putin. Even hismannerisms and body language suggest Trump offers an American version of the propaganda, fear, and hatred put forward by Putin.

Human-like robots merit more attention than robotic humans.Changes in our technology and environment are presenting us with constant stimulus and making us behave in an increasingly machine-like way.

Celebrity gossip isn’t all bad. In 2016, the world is drowning in misery and violence, and we need a break. Taylor Swift’s latest feud is the perfect escapism.

SURPRISING DISCOVERIES

A 15-lb lobster was rescued from being served as dinner at a Florida restaurant. Larry, estimated to be between 60 and 110 years old, is now headed to the Maine State Aquarium.

The study of “cuteness” is an emerging academic filed. There are more than 100 publications in an online “cute studies” bibliography, which combines behavioral science, cultural studies, and biology.

Russia won’t be completely banned from the summer Olympics. Though its track and field team is banned, other Russian athletes can individually apply and, if they meet strict criteria, could be allowed to attend.

Birds are communicating with humans in Mozambique.Traditional Yao honey-hunters reward birds that show the way to honey with beeswax. And scientists have now noted inter-species communication between the two groups.

An 18-year-old has invented the “Swiss Army knife” of drones.He’s been flying drones since he was 12 years old, and wrote up awish list of drone functions before making his dream a reality.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, giant lobsters, and drug-free Russian athletes tohi@qz.com You can download our iPhone app or follow us on Twitterfor updates throughout the day.

Alcuni articoli della scorsa settimana che vale ancora la pena di leggere 25-07-2016

La Storia corre, l’Europa dorme

http://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2016/07/16/la-storia-corre-leuropa-dorme/31203/

Come sono cambiati i consumi delle famiglie in Italia

Come sono cambiati i consumi delle famiglie in Italia

Bitcoin e banche, il patto tra nemici

http://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2016/02/20/bitcoin-e-banche-il-patto-tra-nemici/29340/

Rischio terrorismo e riciclaggio, i money transfer sono incontrollabili

http://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2016/04/29/rischio-terrorismo-e-riciclaggio-i-money-transfer-sono-incontrollabili/30170/

Brexit e l’Europa «sociale»

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2016-07-18/brexit-e-l-europa-sociale–061436_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADaesJt&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Mps, piano anche senza lo Stato

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2016-07-15/mps-piano-anche-senza-stato-230252_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADEpNbt&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

La protezione del risparmio e le responsabilità

La protezione del risparmio e le responsabilità

Dalla Brexit a Trieste, un filo rosso dissacrante spiega l’obiezione fiscale

http://www.ilfoglio.it/cronache/2016/07/17/brexit-trieste-obiezione-fiscale___1-v-144484-rubriche_c940.htm

Più leggi, più guadagni, ecco il risultato di un’interessante ricerca

http://www.linkiesta.it/it/blog-post/2016/07/18/piu-leggi-piu-guadagni-ecco-il-risultato-di-uninteressante-ricerca/24463/

Norvegia regina della sicurezza previdenziale, l’Italia è solo 28° (dopo Slovenia e Slovacchia)

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2016-07-18/norvegia-regina-sicurezza-previdenziale-l-italia-e-solo-28-dopo-slovenia-e-slovacchia-164023_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADzibZu&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Il rischio paese e la sicurezza che serve agli imprenditori

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2016-07-18/il-rischio-paese-e-sicurezza-che-serve-imprenditori-222639_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADmD3eu&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Le élite, il bene pubblico e le ragioni dell’economia

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/commenti-e-idee/2016-07-17/le-elite-bene-pubblico-e-ragioni-dell-economia-114543_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADWkJDu

I 20 punti di Cairo per il nuovo Corriere

http://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2016/07/19/i-20-punti-di-cairo-per-il-nuovo-corriere/31218/

Meno tasse, più dazi e opere infrastrutturali: ecco la Trumpeconomy

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/commenti-e-idee/2016-07-19/meno-tasse-piu-dazi-e-opere-infrastrutturali-ecco-trumpeconomy-233130_PRV.shtml?uuid=AD0oVHv

La soluzione da trovare dentro le regole

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/commenti-e-idee/2016-07-19/la-soluzione-trovare-dentro-regole-233252_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADD0EBv

Il veleno protezionista nutre la cattiva politica

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/commenti-e-idee/2016-07-18/il-veleno-protezionista-nutre-cattiva-politica-184243_PRV.shtml?uuid=AD9hzXu

Perché il leave piace anche ai cosmopolitan chic della City

http://www.ilfoglio.it/esteri/2016/07/19/brexit-little-englanders-leave-chic-city___1-v-144585-rubriche_c107.htm

Pubblica o privata, ma la soluzione sia definitiva

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/commenti-e-idee/2016-07-20/pubblica-o-privata-ma-soluzione-sia-definitiva-230024_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADhpmdv

Le Business school del Regno Unito non temono i contraccolpi della Brexit

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/management/2016-07-14/le-business-school-regno-unito-non-temono-contraccolpi-brexit-101915.shtml?uuid=ADqBIks&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Tassi a zero: scatta la caccia agli investimenti alternativi. Ma gli italiani sono davvero pronti?

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2016-07-20/tassi-zero-scatta-caccia-investimenti-alternativi-ma-italiani-sono-davvero-pronti-173028_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADEJNev&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Sofferenze e Brexit, un intreccio rischioso

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2016-07-21/sofferenze-e-brexit-intreccio-rischioso–153014_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADmQw4v&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Vincitori e vinti nella guerra dello shale oil

Vincitori e vinti nella guerra dello shale oil

L’Europa alla conquista della Luna (grazie alla tecnologia italiana)

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/tecnologie/2016-07-21/l-europa-conquista-luna-grazie-tecnologia-italiana–085852.shtml?uuid=ADijHxv&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

La cessione Npl, il nodo dei rating interni e i rischi di impatto fino a due miliardi

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2016-07-20/la-cessione-npl-nodo-rating-interni-e-rischi-impatto-fino-due-miliardi-225827_PRV.shtml?uuid=ADslmdv&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Banche, ecco la road map dopo gli stress test

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2016-07-20/banche-ecco-road-map-gli-stress-test-225240_PRV.shtml?uuid=AD7Rijv

Draghi, scrollatosi la Brexit di dosso, soffia sulle ferite bancarie italiane

http://www.ilfoglio.it/economia/2016/07/21/draghi-bce-brexit-banche___1-v-144714-rubriche_c307.htm

FinSentS Weekly Recap

Weekly Review of Headlines

● German firms hold off UK investments ahead of Brexit talks –Rtrs

While big companies like Siemens (SIEGn.DE) and Bosch have the deep pockets to take a longer-term view about one of Europe’s most lucrative markets, and weather uncertainty about how the divorce will play out, smaller firms are more cautious…Read More

● US Equity Futures Slip Ahead Of Data & Earnings Results – WBP

Futures on Wall Street were seen marginally lower ahead of housing and labor market data, while major companies are scheduled to publish Q2 results…Read More

● Gold Higher on ECB Stimulus Signals –WSJ

Gold for August delivery closed up 0.9% at $1,331 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices hit $1,310.70 a troy ounce earlier in the session.

● Euro Equities Turn Red After UK Data, Awaiting ECB’s Interest Rate Decision – WBP

European equities plunged on the fourth trading day of the week after a set of UK data disappointed, while the EBC policy meeting is ahead.

● China’s Premier Says World Should Step Up Economic Policy Coordination – RTRS

“Given the financial fluctuations as a result of Brexit, China will advance the market-based reform of the exchange rate,” Li said.

● MUK Brexit Minister: UK Will Keep EU Market Access, Aims For It To Be Tariff-Free – RTRS

Britain’s Brexit minister said the country will keep access to the European single market after it leaves the European Union but that the question is whether tariffs will be imposed on goods and services.

● Fitch: Japan Post-Election Stimulus May Raise Fiscal Risks

Japan is likely to enact further stimulus measures following the victory of the governing Liberal Democratic Party in the 10 July upper house elections, says Fitch Ratings. A decision to roll out a stimulus package by itself is unlikely to trigger rating action, although recurring stimulus over several years risks further undermining public finances.

● Anglo American Iron Ore Output Rises, Copper Falls – MarketWatch

Anglo American PLC (AAL.LN) on Wednesday reported mixed output for the second quarter with iron ore, coal and platinum output up but diamond and copper output down as it continues to restructure operations amid volatile commodity prices.

● EY: UK Faces Short Recession As Brexit Hammers Spending – BBG

The U.K. will fall into a “short, shallow recession” around the turn of the year as Brexit hits house prices, jobs and spending, according to the EY Item Club.

● Asia Markets Close Mixed, But Nikkei Climbs Despite SoftBank Shares Tumbling 10% – CNBC

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 beat its regional peers to close at a six-week high, up 225.46 points, or 1.37 percent, at 16,723.31, with stocks receiving a boost from a relatively weaker yen. The market was closed on Monday for a public holiday.

 

Stock Information

● $AAPL

US Cramer Remix: A warning on Apple earnings #APPLE INC #NASDAQ More Details

● $OCBC

SP OCBC offers free WiFi at over 700 hotspots #OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING #STI30 More Details

● $EXPO

US Zacks Investment Research Downgrades Exponent Inc. (EXPO) to Strong Sell #EXPONENT INC #NASDAQ More Details

● $TATE

LN Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE) Given New GBX 840 Price Target at Deutsche Bank AG #TATE & LYLE PLC #STOXX600 More Details

● $COF

US Capital One Brass Urge Chancery To Ax Laundering Claims #CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP #SP500 More Details

● $CSGN

VX Liberty All-Star Equity Fund (USA) Downgraded by Credit Suisse Group AG #CREDIT SUISSE GROUP #STOXX600 More Details

● $CVX

US Chevron Corp. (CVX) Position Increased by Aviva PLC #CHEVRON CORP #SP500 More Details

● $005930

KS Deveshwar visualises ITC’s future in his farewell speech #SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD #APEX50 More Details

● $CAPL

SP Capitaland Mall : Malls Trust 2Q Distribution Per Unit Rises 1.1% Vs Year Ago #CAPITALAND #STI30 More Details

● $LLOY

LN Lloyds Bank launches mentoring service for fintechs #LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC #LDN100 More Details

 

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Weekend edition—#NATO’s future, empty consumption, studying cuteness

Good morning, Quartz readers.

Article five of NATO’s founding treaty obliges any member of the alliance to come to the defense of another under attack. And yet twice this week, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump intimated that, under his administration, the United States might not come to the aid of besieged NATO members that have not satisfactorily covered their fair share of the organization’s expenses.

“You can’t forget the bills. They have an obligation to make payments. Many NATO nations are not making payments … That’s a big thing,”he told The New York Times on July 21. He would repeat the refrain that evening in a speech at the Republican National Convention.

But a Trump presidency isn’t the only threat facing NATO. A recentattempted coup in Turkey, a NATO member state since 1952, forebodes internal factors pushing the organization apart, too. It strikes a “strong negative impact on the ability of the Turkish military to perform its duties across the spectrum of alliance activities,” particularly in the geopolitically critical Middle East, writes former NATO supreme allied commander James Stavridis.

The parallel rise of far-right ultranationalism in Europe is another potential nail in NATO’s coffin. Ascendant parties like the National Front in France, Jobbik in Hungary, and the Freedom Party of Austriaactively sow contempt for NATO and other Western political institutions among some of the continent’s disaffected voters. A similar dynamic helped the “leave” campaign to victory in the UK vote on Brexit, another sign that a trend toward devolution is afoot.

It all spells uncertainty for a cohesive defense of the West—something Russian president Vladimir Putin has both openly and clandestinely sought to exacerbate in recent years, with an eye toward expanding his country’s sphere of influence.

Understandably, tensions are running high in Brussels. “Solidarity among allies is a key value for NATO,” secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said, responding to Trump’s remarks. “Two world wars have shown that peace in Europe is also important for the security of the United States.”—Jake Flanagin

SPONSOR CONTENT BY EY: BUILDING A BETTER WORKING WORLD

Global health care issues don’t spell disaster—unless we let it get to that point. In this era of an aging global population and rising costs, a comprehensive health care approach is desperately required. The key is addressing the challenge before it becomes insurmountable.

FIVE THINGS ON QUARTZ WE ESPECIALLY LIKED

Trump voters aren’t “idiots.” Using charts, photos, and financial analysis, Chris Arnade tackles the trope that supporters of the officialRepublican nominee for president haven’t thought through their choice. Instead, he argues, their support is a calculated value judgement about Trump’s ability to disrupt a system that has left them socially and economically isolated.

Peter Thiel’s embrace of Trump may be his way of shorting democracy. Politics is intensely personal for the technology investor, who this week acknowledged in a speech to the Republican National Convention that he is gay, making him the first speaker in convention history to do so. Tim Fernholz explores how Thiel’s pessimism about society underlies his enthusiastic support of Trump.

Americans are consuming too much—and barely getting by.US households have never had so much stuff, and yet constantly report feeling anxious and hopeless. Improved living standards might be to blame, writes Allison Schrager. Incomes haven’t kept up with expectations, and this disconnect is leaving Americans feeling vulnerable and stretched.

Maverick women writers are upending the book industry. A renegade generation of self-publishing female authors is redefining the romance novel, adapting the genre to the digital age in a way that has long-lasting lessons for the book industry, writes Thu-Huong Ha. That’s paying off, as voracious readers of romance go online to get their fix.

Roger Ailes was not Fox’s biggest problem. Fox News is facing an impending and potentially devastating crisis, and it doesn’t involve the abrupt ousting of its longtime CEO over sexual harassment allegations. Rather, it’s that the median age of a primetime Fox News viewers is 68, writes Adam Epstein, and that the channel is not doing much to attract younger, more diverse audiences.

FIVE THINGS ELSEWHERE THAT MADE US SMARTER

The Dollar Shave Club acquisition is bad news for big brands.Companies with big bucks for research, development, advertising, and distribution have long dominated the shaving industry, writes Ben Thompson at Stratechery. But the success of Dollar Shave Club’s upstart approach—using YouTube, Facebook, Amazon—means thatestablished companies can’t depend on a cash-rich strategy to deliver the same payoff as it once did.

Donald Trump’s ghostwriter is really sorry. In a lengthy interview with the New Yorker, Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter behind Trump’s 1987 memoir The Art of the Deal, said he feels a “deep sense of remorse” for playing a part in the real estate mogul’s rise. Said Schwartz, “I genuinely believe that if Trump wins and gets the nuclear codes, there is an excellent possibility it will lead to the end of civilization.”

Brexit is the disaster we should have seen coming. In an essay for the New York Review of Books, author Zadie Smith says the UK’s Brexit vote “exposed a fracture in British society that’s been 30 years in the making,” a chasm between classes and regions and races that was ultimately capitalized on by political opportunists.

Just how racist are the American police? Police shootings of black men have gotten a lot of press, but it’s hard to disentangle police racial bias from the US gun problem, racial disparities in crime statistics, and police violence in general. FiveThirtyEight’s Carl Bialikoffers a guide through the nuances.

Our brains are hardwired to love cute things. Babies are cute. Dogs are cute. Hello Kitty is cute. But why do we understand these things to be cute, and why does cuteness make us so happy? Neil Steinberg writes in Mosaic about the field of “cuteness studies” that has sprung up to answer these questions. (Spoiler: It’s starting in Japan.)

AND A BOOK THAT MADE US SMARTER, TOO

Hot enough for you? The United States and Europe are suffering through a prolonged summer heat wave, but at least it’s temporary. In J.G. Ballard’s The Drowned World, published in 1962, the polar ice caps have melted, temperatures rarely dip below 100° Fahrenheit, and the world’s cities have been reduced to lagoons. For the 5 million surviving humans, including researcher Robert Kerans, everything about civilization and the human psyche must be reimagined.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, Hello Kitty accessories, and apocalypse-proof air conditioners to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

CWS Market Review – July 22, 2016

CWS Market Review July 22, 2016 “Every generation laughs at the old fashions, but follows religiously the new.” – Henry David Thoreau For the last several weeks, the market has been distracted by a flurry of distracting events, ranging from Turkey and Brexit to the Federal Reserve and oil prices, not to mention a soap opera-like election campaign. But now we’re at earnings season. This is what really counts. So far, things are going well for our Buy List. We’ve had impressive earnings beats from stocks like Biogen (BIIB), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alliance Data Systems (ADS). Biogen creamed estimates, gave an optimistic forecast and jumped more than 7%. Microsoft is cleaning up with its cloud business, and the stock just hit a new 52-week high. We’ve also had some disappointments from stocks like Signature Bank (SBNY). In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll recap our earnings reports from this past week, plus I’ll highlight the ones coming our way next week. We have a lot of earnings reports to cover, so let’s get right to it. Decent Earnings for WFC, Very Good Earnings for MSFT Last Friday, Wells Fargo (WFC) kicked off earnings season for our Buy List by reporting Q2 earnings of $1.01 per share. That exactly matched Wall Street’s forecast. In last week’s issue, I said that Wall Street’s consensus “sounds about right.” Obviously, an environment where interest rates stay low for longer is a tough one for any bank. Still, Wells is getting by quite nicely despite the challenges. Wells is a bit different from its mega-bank competitors because it’s more focused on consumers instead of Wall Street. That means it’s more susceptible to shifts in interest rates. The bank’s total loans are up 7.7% from a year ago. WFC’s net interest margin came in at 2.86%. That’s been in a downtrend for several quarters. Shares of WFC dropped immediately after the earnings report but have regained much of that lost ground since then. There’s not much more to say about Wells, except that it’s a good bank operating in a difficult time for banks. I’m keeping my Buy Below at $52 per share. On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT) gave us a very good earnings report. For its fiscal Q4, the software giant earned 69 cents per share. That was 11 cents better than estimates. I really like the way this company has turned itself around. I think traders completely overreacted to the slight earnings miss from three months ago. I should add that according to Microsoft’s CFO, roughly six cents of the earnings surprise was due to a lower-than-expected tax rate. Once again, we’re seeing that Microsoft’s cloud business is doing quite well. After several missteps, Microsoft is determined not to be left behind in this business space. Although the profits margins aren’t as generous, there are greater opportunities for growth. In a point of contract, Microsoft’s phone revenue is down 71% from a year ago. Thank you, Steve Ballmer. Overall, I’ve been impressed by the way Satya Nadella has turned the ship around. The job isn’t done yet, but Microsoft is clearly moving in the right direction. The shares jumped more than 5% on Wednesday trading and touched a new 52-week high. The stock is even within striking distance of its all-time high ($59.97), set on the second-to-last day of the previous millennium. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Microsoft to $59 per share. Medallion Loans Weigh on SBNY Our first big earnings disappointment came on Wednesday when Signature Bank (SBNY) reported Q2 earnings of $1.90 per share. That was seven cents below estimates. For one, Signature is dealing with the tough environment facing all banks. The other issue for them is their taxi medallion business. Thanks to Uber and others, the price for a taxi medallion has basically been cut in half. Signature’s been in the business of financing loans to buy these medallions. During Q1, the bank wrote off $4.4 million in bad medallion loans. I’ll sum it up as succinctly as possible: Signature is doing fine. The basics of their business continue to do well. The medallion issue is a problem. But what’s particularly difficult is that we can’t say whether this issue has passed us just yet. We don’t know what we don’t know. Last quarter, Signature added $24 million in loan-loss reserves. Last quarter, the medallion loans made up 2% of all their loans. That’s down from 3% in Q1. Shares of SBNY dropped sharply at Wednesday’s open. At one point, SBNY was below $120 per share, but the stock recovered throughout the day. By the closing bell, it had lost 4.5%. I’m not giving up on SBNY. I believe in their management and continue to see a bright future for them. This week, I’m lowering my Buy Below to $133 per share. Very Impressive Earnings from ADS and Biogen We had three more Buy List earnings reports on Thursday morning. First off, Alliance Data Systems (ADS) reported earnings of $3.68 per share. That beat Wall Street’s consensus by nine cents per share. For Q3, ADS said they see earnings coming in at $4.42 per share. That’s below Wall Street’s consensus of $4.58. But the good news is that ADS sees full-year earnings coming in at $16.85 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $16.78 per share. The activist fund, ValueAct Capital, recently announced that it has a sizeable stake in ADS, and they’ve floated the idea of breaking the company up. I think it’s very possible that the component parts of an un-allied Alliance Data Systems could trade more than the current company. This has been a tough year for ADS, so it was nice to see the stock pop 6.4% on Thursday. I’m going to cautiously bump up my Buy Below price for Alliance Data Systems to $237 per share. Biogen (BIIB) became the star of the earnings season! The biotech company reported Q2 earnings of $5.21 per share. That beat estimates by 54 cents per share. The stock jumped 7.6% on Thursday. Biogen’s quarterly revenue rose 12% to $2.89 billion. The company also announced a $5 billion share buyback, which it hopes to finish up within three years. Biogen also said that its CEO, George Scangos, will be stepping down. Scangos has done a fine job for shareholders, but I think it’s time for new leadership. I was also pleased to see Biogen offer optimistic guidance for the rest of this year. The company sees revenue coming in between $11.2 and $11.4 billion. They see earnings-per-share ranging between $19.70 and $20. Wall Street had been expecting $18.96 per share. Biogen has had a difficult year, so I’m glad to see it bounce back. I’ve been pretty conservative with my Buy Below price. This week, I’m going to raise our Buy Below on Biogen to $290 per share. Snap-on (SNA) reported decent numbers, but traders weren’t impressed. No matter. I think the company is doing just fine. For Q2, Snap-on earned $2.36 per share, which beat estimates by 13 cents per share. One weak spot is that the company’s revenues fell below expectations. For Q2, SNA’s topline was $872.3 million. Wall Street had been expecting $876.9. The stock dropped 3.4% in Thursday’s trading. I’m not sure what caused the selloff, but it’s sometimes hard to divine the market’s wisdom, especially in the short term. Snap-on remains a good buy up to $166 per share. After the closing bell on Thursday, Stryker (SYK) reported Q2 earnings of $1.39 per share, which was two cents better than estimates. That’s up from $1.20 per share of last year’s Q2. The stock has been a huge winner for us this year. For Q3, the medical-device company said it expects earnings to range between $1.33 and $1.38 per share. That’s a bit of a disappointment, as the Street had been expecting $1.41 per share. For all of 2016, Stryker now expects earnings to range between $5.70 and $5.80 per share. The previous range had been $5.65 to $5.80 per share. The stock traded lower in the after-hours market, but that’s no guarantee of where the stock will open on Friday. I never understand why the market reacts negatively to a lower-than-expected quarterly outlook when it’s twinned with an improved full-year outlook, yet it happens all the time. Nevertheless, Stryker is doing quite well. I’m afraid the U.S. dollar will be a headwind for the next few quarters. I’m keeping our Buy Below on Stryker at $122 per share. Six More Earnings Reports Next Week We have six more Buy List earnings reports for next week. Express Scripts and Wabtec report on Monday, July 25. CR Bard is due report on Tuesday, July 26. Then on Thursday, July 28, AFLAC, Stericycle and Ford Motor are due to report. (In last week’s issue, I incorrectly said that Wabtec was due to report this week. WAB is reporting on Monday.) In April, Express Scripts (ESRX) said it expects Q2 earnings to be between $1.55 to $1.59 per share. The pharmacy-benefits manager also increased its full-year range to $6.31 to $6.43 per share. The shares have been trending upward for several weeks. Wabtec (WAB) had a very good earnings report in April, and the stock popped to a new high. Since then, however, it has been a kind of a dud. On Thursday, shares of WAB settled at $70.40, which is over 18% below its April high. I’m expecting another good earnings report. Wall Street expects $1.08 per share. The company also recently raised its modest dividend by 25%. The good news for us is that Wabtec has reaffirmed its full-year earnings of $4.30 to $4.50 per share. CR Bard (BCR) was the big star of last earnings season. They beat and raised guidance. For Q2, Bard sees earnings coming in between $2.43 and $2.47 per share. For the entire year, they expect earnings to range between $10.05 and $10.18 per share. Be careful not to chase this one. AFLAC (AFL) has been doing well for us lately. I’ll be curious to see how much the surging yen helps AFLAC’s bottom line. I think the company can earn as much as $6.60 per share this year in operating earnings. Even without the currency effect, the duck stock is a solid company. I don’t understand why Ford Motor (F) is so cheap, but the market doesn’t always make perfect sense. The automaker now yields over 4.3%. The earnings report for Q1 was outstanding. For Q2, Wall Street expects earnings of 60 cents per share. Stericycle (SRCL) had a disappointing earnings report three months. The company gave us full-year guidance of $4.90 to $5.06 per share. For Q2, Wall Street is expecting $1.18 per share. That’s all for now. Stay tuned for a lot more earnings reports next week. We also have a Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is due out on Wednesday afternoon. I’m not expecting any rate change, but the odds of at least one rate hike before the end of the year are growing. They’re still not high, but they are growing. We’ll also get our first look at the Q2 GDP report next Friday. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review! – Eddy Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 eight times in the last nine years. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.

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