M O N D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 25, 2013
8:30 AM ET. Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index
National Activity Index (previous 0.02)
3 Month Moving Average (previous -0.11)
10:30 AM ET. Feb Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity Index (previous 5.5)
Manufacturing Production Index (previous 12.9)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the January 2nd gap
crossing at 2665.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 2756.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2756.37.
Second resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 2786.50. First support is
Thursday’s low crossing at 2699.50. Second support is the January 2nd gap
crossing at 2665.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 1490.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off
November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1587.50 is the next upside
target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1530.00. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1587.50. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 1490.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level
of the November-February rally crossing at 1482.65.
The Dow closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline of
the past two-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing
at 13,852 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the
Dow renews the rally off November’s low, the 2007 high crossing at 14,198 is
the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at
14,058. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 14,198. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 13,852. Second support is the 25%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 13,666.
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March T-bonds closed up 4/32’s at 143-31.
March T-bonds closed higher on Friday while extending the trading range of
the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 144-13 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the
aforementioned trading range. If March renews this winter’s decline, weekly
support crossing at 139-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 144-07. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 144-13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-05.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 139-14.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it rebounds
off the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 92.56.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Monday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this
week’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally
crossing at 91.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 96.75 would confirm that a low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.75. Second resistance is
this month’s high crossing at 98.24. First support is the 50% retracement level
of the November-February rally crossing at 92.56. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 91.11.
March heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday
consolidating some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off this month’s high, the 50%
retracement level of the December-February crossing at 307.96 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.97
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 316.09. Second resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 318.97. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at
308.86. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-February
crossing at 307.96.
March unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.63 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter’s
rally, weekly resistance crossing at 321.83 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 316.91. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing at 321.83. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 303.63. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 293.53.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.295 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January’s high, January’s
low crossing at 3.100 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.295. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 3.459. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 3.125. Second
support is January’s low crossing at 3.100.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month’s rally.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-February decline crossing
at 81.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 80.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the July-February decline crossing at 81.91. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.72. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 80.19.
The March Euro closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, the 62% retracement
level of the November-February rally crossing at 130.77 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.33 would temper
the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 133.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
134.33. First support is today’s low crossing at 131.47. Second support is the
62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 130.77.
The March British Pound closed unchanged on Friday as it consolidates some
of this winter’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s decline, weekly
support crossing at 1.4857 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5608 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1.5477. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5608.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 1.5124. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 1.4857.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline,
January’s low crossing at .10657 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at .10888 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10888. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at .11090. First
support is Thursday’s low crossing at .10716. Second support is January’s low
crossing at .10657.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday extending the decline off
January’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the
75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 97.31 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.45 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 99.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 99.45. First support is today’s low crossing at 97.45.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at
97.31.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it extends this month’s
trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at .10854 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews the decline off September’s high, monthly support
crossing at .10532 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10791. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at .10854. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at .10588.
Second support is monthly support crossing at .10532.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold closed slightly lower on Friday extending the decline off last
October’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last October’s high,
last May’s low crossing at 1538.70 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1644.10 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1619.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1644.10.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 1554.30. Second support is last
May’s low crossing at 1538.70.
May silver closed lower on Friday as it extended this month’s decline. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-October
rally crossing at 27.529 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 30.818 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.025.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.818. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 28.315. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at 27.529.
May copper closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Friday as it extended
this month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If May extends this week’s decline, December’s low crossing
at 353.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 371.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 371.85. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 380.30. First support is today’s
low crossing at 354.20. Second support is December’s low crossing at 353.40.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee gapped up and closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.29 confirming that a short-term low has been
posted. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January’s high, weekly
support crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 21.78 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If March renews the decline off September’s high, last June’s low
crossing at 20.65 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.36 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March extends this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March renews this winter’s rally, the 62% retracement level of
the 2012-decline crossing at 86.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the
reaction low crossing at 80.05 would confirm that a top has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March Corn closed down a 1/2-cents at 6.90 1/4.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Friday extending the trading range
of the past seven-days. Sluggish demand with only 14.2 million bushels in net
export sales and expiration of March corn options limited early-session rallies
today. Yesterday’s decline was triggered by USDA’s updated statistical forecast
for 2013 crops, which predicted a record 14.53 billion bushel crop and a
decline in average cash prices to $4.80. More details were released this
morning at the agency’s annual Outlook Forum, with projected carryout swelling
to 2.177 billion bushels. As someone who has followed the grain market for over
thirty years it is amazing that the trade has once again bought into the idea
of a record corn crop with planting season just beginning in Texas and
continued drought conditions still existing across much of the corn belt west
of the Mississippi. If seems as though each year traders are willing to call
for a record crop earlier and earlier in the season. Given there track record
over the past five years, you would think that they would be somewhat cautious
about jumping on the record crop band wagon this early in the year.
Nevertheless, it would appear that the combination of sluggish export demand,
declining ethanol output and the latest USDA prediction for a record corn crop
this year will likely keep the corn market on the defensive near-term. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at
6.86 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.13 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.97 1/4.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.13 1/4. First
support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.87 1/4. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 6.86 1/4.
March wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 7.15.
March wheat closed lower on Friday extending yesterday’s close below the 75%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4. This week’s winter
snowstorm has brought some moisture relief to parts of the plains, which has
helped to pull prices to their lowest levels since last-June. This morning’s
export sales report showed net wheat sales of 25.7 million bushels. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.52 1/2 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.52 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.70
3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 7.13 1/2. Second support is the
87% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 7.49 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday extending the decline off
November’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the decline off January’s high, the 75% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
7.75 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.99.
First support is today’s low crossing at 7.49 3/4. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 8.02 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this winter’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Monday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally
crossing at 7.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 8.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.18 3/4. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.37. First support is
today’s low crossing at 8.01 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level
of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.79.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed down 26 1/2-cents at 14.61 1/4.
March soybeans posted a key reversal down on Friday. March soybeans surged
above $15 to 16-week highs overnight on news that China has been switching
purchases from Brazil back to the U.S. due to delays shipping the soybeans at
Brazilian ports. Harvest delays from heavy rains in the center-west of the
country have exacerbated the usual congestion, with backlogs running 30 to 45
days. Port workers are also staging a six-hour strike today, further
complicating the outlook. However, this morning’s export sales report showed a
net reduction of 4.4 million bushels in sales thereby trigging today’s sell
off. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, November’s high
crossing at 15.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 14.47 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15.16 1/2. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 15.45. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 14.47 1/2. Second support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 14.04
1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $10.40 at $426.90.
March soybean meal posted a key reversal down on Friday as it consolidated
some of this week’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally,
December’s high crossing at 457.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 419.30 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 445.00. Second resistance
is December’s high crossing at 457.90. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 419.30. Second support is last Thursday’s low crossing at
402.70.
March soybean oil closed down 96-pts. at 50.35.
March soybean closed sharply lower on Friday renewing this month’s decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends today’s decline, January’s low crossing at 49.12 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.97 would temper
the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at
52.79. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 53.57. First support
is today’s low crossing at 50.30. Second support is January’s low crossing at
49.12.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.72 at $81.65.
April hogs closed lower on Friday extending the decline off November’s high.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If April extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the May-November rally crossing at 81.14 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.33 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 84.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
86.33. First support is today’s low crossing at 81.60. Second resistance is the
87% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at 81.14.
April cattle closed up $0.40 at 128.22.
April cattle closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s decline, last
April’s low crossing at 125.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 130.82 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 130.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 133.65.
First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 127.50. Second support is last
April’s low crossing at 125.90.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $141.25.
March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year’s decline,
weekly support crossing at 138.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 145.64 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 142.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
145.64. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 139.50. Second support
is weekly support crossing at 138.48.
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T H A N K Y O U
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