FED watchers’ dashboard 31/03/2015

FOMC participants has now set themselves on a crucial Journey this year – When to do the first rate hike and how much?

  • According to the latest update FED might hike rates over any meeting except April, 2015.

Individual voting member’s opinions would be vital to assess the rate path. June and September are the major contenders so far. Treasury yield is voting for September.

Following board will get updated time to time –

This year’s Member include

Voting Member Views so far Recent Change/Stance
Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair
  • Gradual Rate hike starting this year.
  • Worried about Secular Stagnation, slowdown in economy due to external factors.
  • Very hawkish to Mild hawkish
William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman
  • Worried over regulatory aspects and bad assets in banks
  • Neutral
Lael Brainard, Board of Governors
  • Focus on financial stability and regulatory watch
  • Neutral cautious
Charles L. Evans, Chicago
  • No rate hike in 2016
  • Worried over weakness in economy and strong dollar
  • Very dovish
Stanley Fischer, Board of Governors
  • Likely will be warranted by end of 2015
  • Mild hawkish to Neutral, mild dovish
Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond
  • June rate hike still possible
  • Very hawkish
Dennis P. Lockhart, Atlanta
  • Rate hike after June but at least once this year
  • Hawkish
Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors
  • Focus is more on regulatory aspects and financial stability
  • Neutral
Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors
  • Focuses over banking regulation and worried over weaker rates fueled risk taking
  • Neutral to hawkish
John C. Williams, San Francisco
  • Confident over economic prospects especially labor market
  • Hawkish
Source: FxWire Pro
Annunci

Why So Volatile? – 03/31/2015

As for the market action on Monday… Why was it up?

Because we are still in a bull market. The better question is: Why is the market so darn volatile?

Here is my theory. Most investors appreciate that this bull market is getting long in the tooth. We are now in month 73 when the average boom period lasts for 63 months.

So investors don’t want to get too exuberant at this stage of the game as they did during the latter stages of last two bull markets. Because the rug was pulled out the previous times leading to some devastating losses that are still fresh in memory.

So every time there is bad news, then stocks head down for a spell. And even just making new highs is reason enough to take some profits off the table.

Yet each time this cycle takes place, stocks do head back higher. And that will continue until there is a stronger reason to believe the bear is ready to take charge. That is not the case now and why it still pays to be in the bull camp.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Quartz Daily Brief—#Iran’s deadline, #Nigeria’s results, confidence boosts, dangerous beards

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Iran’s deadline. Time finally runs out for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. The chances of a last-minute accord don’t look good, and if there isn’t one, expect Iran to ramp up its program and the US to ramp up sanctions.

Taiwan applies to join Beijing’s new development bank. The Taiwanese president’s office said it would submit its application to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, despite China not recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. Taiwan would join a long list of major world powers in the development bank.

Nigeria’s election results. Votes are being counted in the presidential race between incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and former dictator Muhammadu Buhari, and Buhari has an early lead. Both the US and the UK have voiced concerns about possible vote-rigging.

A first reading on euro zone inflation. Preliminary March figures are expected to show a -0.1% annual change in prices, despite recent rebounds in consumer confidence. The bloc’s unemployment rate for February is also due.

While you were sleeping

Blackstone paid $1.3 billion for three hotels. The world’s largest real estate private equity company bought two JW Marriott hotels and one Ritz-Carlton, all in the US, according to Bloomberg. The deal is a bet on the value of the hotels’ meetings and conference venues, evenas Airbnb’s reach grows.

Alibaba signed a distribution deal with BMG. The Chinese internet conglomerate’s digital entertainment unit will have access to 2.5 million tracks, the first time it has signed with a music publisher outside of Asia. Alibaba and the Chinese government alike are cracking down on piracy as commercial streaming services gain popularity in China.

UK consumer confidence hit a near 13-year high. British shoppers’ morale rose to +4 in March, from +1 in February, the highest level since June 2002, according to a GfK survey. That will be good news for the ruling Conservative party, which is touting economics in its campaign to win a second term in May’s general election.

Confidence keeps surging in Australia. Housing Industry Association figures show new home sales rose 1.1% in February topush sales volumes to a seasonally-adjusted high, driven by an 11.1% rise in multi-unit sales such as apartments. Private sector lending, which includes mortgages, rose 6.2% in February from a year earlier, the fastest in six years (paywall).

A Saudi air strike killed at least 40 Yemeni refugees. The attackwas aimed at Houthi fighters—the Iranian-backed insurgents trying to topple Yemen’s government—but hit a camp for internally displaced people instead.

Shots were fired at the US’s National Security Agency. Officials say two men—dressed as women—attempted to drive a sports utility vehicle through the gates of the NSA’s headquarters in Fort Meade, Maryland. One of the drivers was killed.

Quartz obsession interlude

Steve LeVine on the battle for the future of the battery. “The high-tech patent wars have spread to a new front, engaging two of the world’s largest industrial companies in a multibillion-dollar court battle over lithium-ion batteries. At issue is a battery chemistry that, while little known to the public, many experts believe currently holds the best chance of electric cars penetrating the mass market.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Millennials don’t know how to be adults. There’s no road map to life any more, and most millennials are delaying growing up.

Governments should set up sharing economy apps. Not-for-profit public services would be a good way to balance the disruptive power of services like Uber and Lyft.

Social media is sheltering men from real women. People who post pictures of breastfeeding, menstruation, or overweight women often have their accounts blocked.

It’s time for Singapore to grow up. Some of its laws are so archaic they’re holding back the country’s future.

Surprising discoveries

Volvo created a spray to make cyclists more visible. Put the invisible coating on your clothes or your bike, and it reflects white light.

China jailed a man for growing a beard. Growing a beard isconsidered a form of trouble-making in some parts of China’s Muslim-majority Xinjiang province.

Parents can’t tell when their children are fat. Just a tiny fraction of parents of “very overweight” UK children recognized their children as such.

Scientists engineered a virus to help boil water three times faster. Originally found on the tobacco plant, the virus can be made into a coating for industrial applications.

“China’s Detroit” is a municipality with a population of 30 million.Chongqing may be the biggest and least-recognized mega-city in the world.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, shaving cream, and tobacco plants to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

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The Market is NOT Efficient – 03/30/2015

Kevin Cook here to kick-off the week for Steve…

Last week I gave you “5 Reasons New Highs Are Coming” and explained why you should be buying dips in your favorite growth stocks before earnings season. I want to elaborate on the third reason:classic bull market behavior predicts strong stocks keep running higher .

When the economic cycle still has upward momentum, institutional investors are still holding, seeking, and adding strong growth companies to ride the bull. These quality stocks tend to keep delivering earnings surprises and then charge higher through most analyst price targets.

While Wall Street analysts have a reputation for being too optimistic, they actually get conservative when names they cover have doubled or tripled in the span of a few years, or quarters. They don’t want to stick their necks out too far in case a correction comes .

And when you throw a skeptical public and bearish hedge funds in the mix, you find many great stocks are being ignored and just waiting to explode higher once they deliver the goods. Then the analysts surface and raise estimates and their price targets to catch up with the growth story.

Where do you find these stocks? The daily update of Zacks #1 Rank stocks is your best place to discover what “the inefficient market” is hiding.

The Week Ahead

Lots of big economic data on the docket this week, including Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing, Factory Orders, and the Employment Situation. Get deeper color on how these reports might affect investor sentiment by checking out our featured commentaries below.

Best,

Kevin Cook

Senior Stock Strategist, Zacks Investment Research

Websim Focus sui Mercati finanziari 30/03/2015 – WS

La settimana corta che si chiuderà con la Pasqua parte con un rally delle borse cinesi innescato dalle aspettative di nuovi interventi di politica monetaria: Hong Kong +1,5%, una delle variazioni più ampie degli ultimi 12 mesi, indice CSI 300 +1,7%.

Il governatore della Banca del Popolo della Cina ha affermato che il Paese, per fronteggiare un eventuale rallentamento dell’economia, ha spazi di manovra sia per quanto riguarda i tassi di interesse sia per quel che concerne altre misure quantitative (acquisto di obbligazioni).

Positiva anche Tokio (+0,85%). Il rialzo è la risposta alla caduta della produzione industriale giapponese, -3,4% dal +3,7% di gennaio. Una frenata che rende più probabili ulteriori allentamenti della stretta monetaria.
La Borsa dell’India sale dello 0,8% e la Borsa della Corea del Sud dell0 0,4%.

I future sulle borse europee anticipano un avvio in rialzo dello 0,3%.

Grecia. Venerdì sera il governo Tsipras ha presentato l’atteso piano di riforme economiche.
Si tratta di un pacchetto di azioni di contrasto dell’evasione fiscale, di privatizzazioni e di tasse su tabacchi e alcolici. Apertura anche sull’ipotesi di aprire a esplorazioni marine per la ricerca di petrolio.

Tsipras punta a racimolare 3 miliardi di euro, soldi che servono per pagare stipendi e pensioni del mese in corso. Se i creditori non arrivano in soccorso, a metà di aprile la Grecia si ritroverà senza soldi per tenere in piedi la macchina statale.

Analisi tecnica borse. Si è chiusa una settimana di assestamento diffuso sui principali listini. Nulla di traumatico se pensiamo a quanta strada è stata percorsa nei primi tre mesi che si stanno per concludere. L’S&P500 ha perso complessivamente il 2,2%, Tokio l’1,4%, Francoforte -1,4%, dopo 10 settimane consecutive di rialzo, Milano -0,83%, dopo sette settimane di rialzo. Il quadro di fondo rimane robusto con la sola eccezione del Brasile (-3,6% dal primo gennaio).

FtseMib (22.984). Prosegue la fase di ordinato consolidamento a ridosso dei massimi dell’anno a 23.400 punti, primo resistenza da monitorare. L’obiettivo finale del movimento resta sui massimi dal 2009 in area 24mila/24.500 punti e stiamo pronti a sfruttare eventuali approfondimenti correttivi verso 21.500/21mila punti per gli acquisti.

Variabili macro

Petrolio. Ha chiuso molto male la settimana (venerdì -4,7%), ma il bilancio complessivo è risultato ampiamente positivo (Brent +4,9%, Wti +2%). Stamattina Brent 56 usd, Wti 48 usd.
Al centro dell’attenzione le trattative sul nucleare in corso a Losanna tra Iran e Stati Uniti, che si concluderanno domani sera. Un’intesa potrebbe contribuire ad allentare le tensioni geo-strategiche e stabilizzare l’area dalla quale arriva una parte importante del petrolio del pianeta.
Ma fino all’ultimo si discuterà.

Operatività: Manteniamo la posizione Long da 55 e 45 usd rispettivamente. Puntiamo a circa 10 dollari di guadagno, ma collochiamo uno stop loss a breve distanza dai livelli di ingresso per evitare inutili perdite.

Oro (oggi 1.193 usd). La settimana si è chiusa con un guadagno dell’1,4%. Non sono stati violati i primi ostacoli grafici di rilievo a 1.230 usd per cui si torna a guardare i supporti strategici a 1.150/1.120 usd, sotto i quali si proietterebbe invece un target verso quota 1.000 usd. Il nostro giudizio di fondo resta negativo.

Forex

Euro/Dollaro (1,087). Il cross prova a stabilizzarsi nel range 1,05-1,10 dopo una cavalcata inarrestabile. L’obiettivo naturale rimane la parità, mentre nuovi segnali di forza del dollaro si vedranno sotto 1,0490. Strappi oltre 1,10 sono da sfruttare come occasione per comprare altri dollari.

Bond

Scenario tranquillo con qualche modesta presa di profitto. Oggi lo spread decennale riapre a 114 punti base per un rendimento del BTP 10 anni a 1,35%, mentre si attendono novità sulla Grecia. Il temuto effetto contagio per ora non si è assolutamente concretizzato. Eventuali strappi verso 1,50% sarebbero occasioni di acquisto.

http://www.websim.it

WEEKLY MONITOR MERCATI 30/03/2015

Sentiment dei mercati: i buoni dati macro europei e, solo in parte, Usa non compensano le tensioni geopolitiche (in primis Yemen) che si sommano alla cautela per i negoziati tra Atene e il Brussels Group (ex Troika) e alle prese di beneficio (per tutelarsi).


Fonte: FactSet. Elaborazione: redazione albertonosari.it Dati macro della settimana 23-27 marzo 2015 e considerazioni generali Usa: indice Fed Chicago sceso a -0,11 pt in febbraio da -0,10; +1,2% vendite case esistenti febbraio, sotto attese; +7,8% vendite nuove case febbraio, sopra attese (livello massimo dal febbraio 2008); indice Pmi manifatturiero salito a marzo a 55,3 punti da 55,1 febbraio (atteso  54,7); +0,2% prezzi al consumo in febbraio, +0,2% core (in linea con le attese degli analisti); crescita pil IV trimestre confermata a +2,2%, sotto attese (+2,4%) e Casa Bianca conferma economia solida; Doe, scorte settimanali petrolio +8,17 mln brl, a 466,678 mln;-9mila a 282mila richieste sussidi disoccupazione; fiducia U.Michigan marzo scende a 93pt da 95,4( rivisto da 91,2), attese di 92pt. Ue: E19, fiducia consumatori balza a -3,7 punti in marzo da -6,7 (migliore performance da luglio 2007); indice Pmi manifatturiero sale a marzo a 51,9 da 51, piu’ alto da 10 mesi e l’ indice Pmi composito globale e’ a 54,1 da 53,3, il piu’ alto da quattro mesi; anche l’indice Pmi dei servizi e’ salito a 54,3 da 53,7 di febbraio, il piu’ alto da 46 mesi; crescita in tutti gli Stati, prima volta da 2007, ma ripresa fragile; Bce, +4% M3 febbraio, +3,8% media tre mesi. Cina: a marzo indice Pmi manifatturiero scende a 49,2 da 50,7 di febbraio (il risultato piu’ basso degli ultimi undici mesi). Giappone: a marzo indice Pmi a 50,4 da 51,6 di febbraio; a febbraio -1,8% annuo per le vendite al dettaglio; -2,9% consumi a febbraio, disoccupazione al 3,5% e rallenta l’inflazione +2,0% annuo. Russia: ministro energia Ucraino, “da 1 aprile stop ad acquisti gas russo”; ok Parlamento Ue nuovo piano prestiti a Ucraina fino a 1,8 mld in 2015-2016. Germania: Bundesbank, forte crescita del Pil nel primo semestre 2015; a marzo indice Pmi manifatturiero sale a 52,4 da 51,1 di febbraio, al top da 8 mesi; a marzo indice Ifo sale a 107,9, sopra attese  (107,3) e al top da luglio 2014; fiducia consumatori aprile a 10 da 9,7 (atteso 9,8). Francia: indice fiducia consumatori sale a 93 punti dai 92 di febbraio; fiducia imprese marzo a 96 dai 94 di febbraio; Insee, crescita del Pil +0,4% nel 2014 (IV* trimestre +0,1% congiunturale e +0,2% su anno); deficit/Pil 2014 migliora a 4%, per governo a 3,8% in 2015 e sotto il 3% entro il 2017; debito pubblico sale al 95% del Pil nel 2014 dal 92,3%. Spagna: deficit/Pil al 5,7% nel 2014, ‘ Rispettati impegni con Ue’ . G.B.: inflazione febbraio +0,3%, ferma su anno, sotto le attese (0,4% su mese e dello 0,2% su anno); a febbraio prezzi produzione +0,2% su mese, -1,8% su anno, in linea con le previsioni; vendite al dettaglio +0,7% a febbraio, +5,7% tendenziale. Italia: Ismea, +0,4% i prezzi agricoli in febbraio, +1,5% tendenziale; Istat, retribuzioni ferme a febbraio, +1% su anno; Istat, a febbraio surplus commercio extra Ue sale a 2,84 miliardi; CsC, Pil primo trimestre +0,2%, pesa produzione industriale gennaio; Trichet, Italia stia attenta a costi lavoro per essere competitiva; Nomisma, -2,9% prezzi casa attesi nel 2015, ripresa solo dal 2017; Piano Juncker operi su energia, banda larga e trasporti (Marcegaglia); +38,4% i contratti a tempo indeterminato gennaio-febbraio; Istat, -3,6% ordini a gennaio, -5,5% su anno; fatturato -1,6% su mese, -2,5% tendenziale; vendite  dettaglio gennaio +0,1% , +1,7% su anno. Petrolio/cambi: Petrolio Wti a 50,99$/b (contratto a maggio) su tensione geopolitiche in Yemen; euro poco sopra quota 1,08$. Crisi: Grecia, Draghi, adesso nel breve termine non c’e’ rischio sistemico; deve onorare pienamente gli obblighi del debito con tutti i creditori; Bce aumenta tetto prestiti emergenza Ela da 68,9mld a 71mld; Schaeuble, rinviare riforme all’infinito non e’ una soluzione; Trichet, mi aspetto prevalga buon senso in trattative su debito; Ue, Draghi, inflazione molto bassa o negativa prossimi mesi, risalira’ a fine anno; i rischi su stabilita’ finanziaria sono attualmente contenuti; Portogallo, deficit/Pil scende al 4,5% nel 2014, meglio del previsto; Usa, Bullard (Fed St. Louis), tenere tassi a zero possibile rischio.

http://www.albertonosari.it

Quartz Daily Brief—Tsunami alert, #Nigeria’s election, #Japan’s economic gloom, sneaker art

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Nigeria’s choice is revealed. Following an intense campaign seasonand a postponement caused by Boko Haram, we find out who won—incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan or his challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. Voters turned out in the millions over the weekend.

A potential tsunami in Papua New Guinea. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit close to the coast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands 9:45am local time (12:45am BST); it caused no immediate damage, but a tsunami warning has been raised.

A major upset for France’s Socialists. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s center-right UMP party and its allies are expected to have taken between 66 and 70 seats in the second round of local election voting (paywall). That would be up from 41 previously, and would come at the expense of the ruling Socialist party, which is expected to win between 27 and 31 seats, from 61 earlier.

The UK’s Parliament is dissolved. The House of Commons’ five-year term comes to an end as all political parties prepare to contest a general election on May 7. Polls show the Conservative and Labour parties are neck and neck.

A final push for an Iran nuclear deal. Negotiators from six countries and Iran are will huddle in Switzerland to try to hammer out the framework for an accord over Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiators havereportedly closed in on an accord, but some thorny issues remain. A White House spokesman said the talks have a 50/50 chance of success.

Over the weekend

Japan’s industrial output fell the fastest in eight months. Output fell 3.4% in February, which was much worse than an anticipated 1.8% fall. A small slowdown was expected due to the timing of the Lunar New Year, but such a rapid fall suggests domestic demand is much weaker than anticipated.

Prada’s full-year profit fell. Net income at the Italian luxury goods brand fell 28% to €451 million ($490 million) in the year to the end of January, and was lower than an expected €468 million. Sales have suffered because of China’s corruption crackdown.

Singapore’s founding father was laid to rest. Lee Kuan Yew was given a state funeral attended by world leaders and then a private family ceremony. About 1.5 million people paid tribute to Lee last week at various sites after he died on Monday.

Greece’s creditors considered yet another reform plan. This one will raise €3bn ($3.3bn) from greater privatization, higher taxes on alcohol and cigarettes, and steps to clamp down on tax evasion. Greece says it will run out of money sometime in April if its creditors don’t agree to release more bailout funds.

Europol’s chief railed against the dark net. In an interview, Rob Wainwright joined the chorus of security bosses warning that data encryption is enabling terrorists to communicate in secret, and shielding them from detection. He urged companies like Apple to reconsider offering sophisticated encryption software with their products.

Quartz obsession interlude

Kabir Chibber on the sad, cautionary tale of Audley Harrison, the anti-Mayweather. “In 2000, Harrison won gold in the super-heavyweight category at the Sydney Olympics. His career looked set for great things. So how did Harrison go on to seven losses in a 38-fight career while Mayweather is currently undefeated at 47-0?” Read more here.

Matters of debate

“Religious freedom” laws are un-American. They contradict the very principles the country was founded on, writes Apple CEO Tim Cook.

The Millennial generation is almost over. Generation Z is coming, and they are curious, diverse, and driven.

Confidence is not about believing you’ll win. It’s about beingcomfortable with the fact that you might lose.

Your children should opt out of standardized testing. Kids’ independence is being crushed by endless scholastic bombardment of carrots and sticks.

To persuade people, acknowledge their point of view. And 13 other secrets of really persuasive people.

Surprising discoveries

Half of urban North Koreans have a digital media player. The favored $50 “Notel” plays media from DVDs and USBs smuggled from South Korea.

The Church of Scientology owns some incredible real estate. The movement purchased over 60 buildings between 2006 and 2011 alone.

Tiredness can aid creativity. The mind needs to meander onto ideas that seem disconnected from the task at hand.

There’s a man that turns shoes into art. He describes himself as a “sneaker freaker.”

The Apple Watch is missing a web browser. It’s another sign of thedemise of the web.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, smuggled DVDs, and sneaker art to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

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