Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, September 19, 2013
Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is up 28 points to 15622. The US Dollar Index moved lower 0.128 points to 80.142. Gold is higher 3.66 dollars to 1363.63. Silver is declining 0.1000 dollars to 22.9200. The Dow Industrials climbed 147.21 points, at 15676.94, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 20.76 points, last seen at 1725.52. The Nasdaq Composite rose 37.08 points to 3782.78. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 511K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 1097K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 726.2K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 330K; previous 292K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -31K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2871000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -73K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (expected -97B; previous -106.15B)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. Aug Existing Home Sales
Total Sales (expected 5.25M; previous 5.39M)
Percent Change (expected -2.6%; previous +6.5%)
Month’s Supply (previous 5.1)
Median Price (previous 213500)
Median Price – Yrly % Chg (previous +13.7%)
10:00 AM ET. Aug Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index (previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.1%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. Sept Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 9; previous 9.3)
Prices Paid (previous 17.3)
Employment (previous 3.5)
New Orders (previous 5.3)
Prices Received (previous 9.9)
Delivery Times (previous -9)
Inventories (previous -11.3)
Shipments (previous -0.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 3253B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net change) (previous +65B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Foreign US Debt Holdings
US Foreign Agency Holdings
Foreign Treasury Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg.
Primary Dealer Borrowings
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Discount Window Borrowings
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
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CURRENCIES
December Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below key support marked by June’s low crossing at 80.95. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, February’s low crossing at 79.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.89. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 83.15. First support is today’s low crossing at 80.31. Second support is February’s low crossing at 79.66.
The December Euro closed higher on Wednesday and above August’s high thereby renewing the rally off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, February’s high crossing at 137.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 135.16. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 137.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.98. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 131.10.
The December British Pound closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends this summer’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5676 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 1.6112. Second resistance is the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5797. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5677.
The December Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, January’s high crossing at .11062 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10753 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .10986. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at .11062. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10753. Second support is this month’s low crossing at .10584.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, June’s high crossing at 98.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 97.81. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 98.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.69.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10114 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at .10330 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10060 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .10223. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10330. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at .9943. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9860.
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ENERGIES
October crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.05 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 112.24. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43.
October heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it rebounds off the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 299.66. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 317.56. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14. Second support is August’s low crossing at 292.61.
October unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 281.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 275.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 281.90. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 264.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52.
October Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.611 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 4.003. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.611. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.483.
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FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this summer’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling additional gains are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June’s low, the 2012 high crossing at 27.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target.
October cotton closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the August-September decline crossing at 86.70 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS
Corn closed up 2 1/4-cents at 4.56 1/4.
December corn closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 3/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 5.08 1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.52. Second support is August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4.
December wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.46 1/2.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday’s high would open the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2 later this month. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 6.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.36 3/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/4-cents at 6.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday’s high would open the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 7.17. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 7.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.17. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at 6.88 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 3/4-cents at 7.00 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December renews this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.18 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.18 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.48. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.98 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
soybeans closed up 5 1/4-cents at 13.47 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week’s losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 26th gap crossing at 13.31 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 14.09 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 14.49. First support is today’s low crossing at 13.32. Second support is the August 26th gap crossing at 13.31 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $0.80 at 425.80.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last Friday’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 26th gap crossing at 420.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 460.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 451.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 460.60. First support is the August 26th gap crossing at 420.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 415.60.
December soybean oil closed up 47 pts. at 42.71.
December soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, August’s low crossing at 41.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 44.46. First support is today’s low crossing at 42.03. Second support is August’s low crossing at 41.85.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3125.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 3228.50. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 3329.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3166.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3125.16.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday and posted a new all-time high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1657.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 1722.80. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1678.56. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1657.30.
The Dow posted a new all-time high on Wednesday after the Fed announced that it would not make any changes to quantitative easing at this point in time. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off August’s low, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,084 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15,709. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15,284. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,084.
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INTEREST RATES
T-bonds closed up 1-25/32 at 132-03.
December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 129-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 135-28. First support is this month’s low crossing at 128-12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.
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LIVESTOCK
hogs closed up $0.75 at $91.72.
October hog closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off March’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 92.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.70.
October cattle closed up $0.10 at 125.27.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday extending the trading range of the past eight days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.05 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 124.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.25. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 124.30. Second support is August’s low crossing at 124.12.
October feeder cattle closed up $0.42 at $158.30.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews this month’s decline, August’s low crossing at 155.85 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing at 160.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 160.00. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 160.70. First support is gap support crossing at 158.02. Second support is August’s low crossing at 155.85.
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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold closed higher on Wednesday following the Feds announcement to continue with quantitative easing for the time being. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1374.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month’s decline, August’s low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1374.10. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today’s low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August’s low crossing at 1272.10.
December silver closed sharply higher on Wednesday and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.322 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 19.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.322. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 25.160. First support is today’s low crossing at 21.225. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 19.145.
December copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.27 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, the reaction low crossing at 314.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 332.05. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 339.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 319.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 314.00.
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