ADVFN – Report dei mercati 23/07/2013

MERCATO USA
Positivi gli indici di Wall Street. Deludono i risultati di McDonald’s

Chiusura positiva per i maggiori indici azionari degli Stati Uniti dopo un avvio di ottava contrastato. A New York l’indice S&P 500 termina con un progresso dello 0,20% mentre il Nasdaq 100 guadagna lo 0,34 per cento. Sostanzialmente invariato il Dow Jones Index (+0,01%). Sul versante macroeconomico sono state pubblicate in giornata le vendite di abitazioni esistenti a giugno negli States: tale valore è diminuito dell’1,2% rispetto al dato di maggio. Il dato è risultato peggiore delle attese fissate su un incremento dello 0,6%. Rispetto a giugno 2012 le vendite di abitazioni esistenti sono aumentate del 15,2%. Inoltre la Federal Reserve di Chicago ha comunicato che il proprio indice (Chicago Fed National Activicy Index), che misura l’attività globale economica e le pressioni inflazionistiche, si e’ attestato a -0,13 punti a giugno dai -0,29 punti del mese precedente.

L’attenzione degli investitori è concentrata in questi giorni sui risultati del secondo trimestre che le maggiori società Usa stanno diffondendo.

McDonald’s ha ceduto il 2,68% dopo aver chiuso il secondo trimestre del 2013 con ricavi da 7,8 miliardi di dollari (+2% sul dato di un anno fa) e eps diluted  che, pur crescendo del 5% a quota 1,38 dollari nel periodo, si è posto comunque al di sotto delle attese da 1,41 dollari.

Sotto la parità e in controtendenza anche il titolo Halliburton (-1,64%) che ha chiuso il secondo trimestre dell’anno con un utile dalle operazioni ordinarie da 677 milioni di dollari pari a 0,73 dollari per azione (eps diluted) oltre le attese degli analisti poste a 72 centesimi.

In territorio negativo anche Yahoo! che ha lasciato sul campo il 4,29% dopo avere annunciato il riacquisto di 40 milioni di titoli propri controllati prima da Third Point e avere deciso la sostituzione dei tre manager che il socio (ancora dotato di 20 milioni di azioni) aveva ottenuto nel consiglio di amministrazione.

Google termina invece la seduta in territorio positivo con un rialzo dell’1,57 per cento. La società taiwanese produttrice di microprocessori Himax ha annunciato al cessione al gigante dei motori di ricerca del 6% delle attività che sviluppano tecnologie per display per dispositivi affini agli attesi Google Glass.

In rialzo anche Microsoft, che guadagna l’1,94% e recupera parte del terreno ceduto di recente. La casa di Windows ha annunciato la scorsa settimana un eps adjusted da 0,52 dollari molto inferiore alle attese da 0,75 dollari.

Sotto il riferimento GlaxoSmithKline, che cede lo 0,69 per cento. Da una nota della società si apprende che il gruppo, a seguito di un incontro con il ministro cinese della pubblica sicurezza. Da quanto emerso finora dalle ricerche effettuate sembra che alcuni dirigenti di GlaxoSmithKline in Cina abbiano infranto la legge cinese scavalcando anche i regolamenti interni e avviando delle pratiche corruttive.
Negativa infine Netflix (-0,99%).

Al termine della seduta la società ha comunicato i risultati relativi al secondo trimestre 2013: gli utili si sono attestati a 29,5 milioni di dollari, con un eps pari a 49 centesimi, in crescita rispetto ai 6 milioni di dollari di un anno fa. I ricavi sono cresciuti del 20%, a 1,07 miliardi di dollari. Gli investitori non hanno tuttavia apprezzato che il numero di abbonati alla piattaforma di video in streaming sia salito solo a 630.000 nel trimestre, al di sotto delle attese degli analisti fissate su un numero di abbonati pari a 700/800.000.

MERCATI ASIATICI

In crescita i mercati asiatici. Bene la Borsa di Tokyo

Seduta positiva per il Nikkei che sale a 14778,51 punti (+0,82%), mantenendosi all’interno del range di oscillazione compreso tra area 14500, precedente resistenza ed ora valido supporto, e la barriera in area 15000. Solo il debordo da questo intervallo segnalerebbe le intenzioni dell’indice di voler proseguire la crescita ovvero di avviare una nuova fase correttiva. La rottura di area 15000 prospetterebbe infatti la ripresa dell’uptrend con primo target a 16000, sui record di quest’anno. Diversamente, sotto area 14400 atteso il test di 14000 punti. La violazione anche di questa soglia renderebbe probabile la ricopertura del gap lasciato aperto il 28 giugno a 13200, riferimento strategico nel breve e medio termine coincidente in questa fase con la linea di tendenza che sale dai minimi di giugno.

Solo sotto questo limite i recenti progressi verrebbero vanificati in favore del ritorno a 12400 circa. Positivo anche il Topix a 1223,63 punti (+0,58%).
Sul fronte societario spicca il rialzo di Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (+3,34%): secondo indiscrezioni di stampa sarebbe stato stipulato un accordo con Toyota Motor (-0,15%) per un incremento intorno a 10% nel prezzo del laminato d’acciaio nel periodo aprile-settembre a fronte dell’indebolimento dello yen. Bene anche Sumitomo Metal Mining (+4,30%) e Nisshin Steel Holdings (+5,64%)
Terminano al rialzo anche le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Hong Kong sale del 2,12%, Shangai dell’1,69%, mentre Seoul dell’1,27%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Indici azionari europei in rialzo durante le prime battute

Si muovono in territorio positivo i maggiori indici azionari europei durante i primi scambi di stamane. Il Dax 30 tedesco segna un rialzo dello 0,34% e il Cac 40 guadagna lo 0,32 per cento. Performance ancora migliori per lo spagnolo Ibex 35, che mette a segno un recupero di 1,38 punti percentuali. Oltremanica il Ftse 100 guadagna lo 0,44 per cento, mentre di qua dalle Alpi l’italiano Ftse Mib segna un +0,91 per cento.

Nel paniere principale tedesco sono da evidenziare le buone performance del tecnologico Infineon che guadagna il 2,75 per cento. La società potrebbe essere incoraggiata dai buoni risultati di Texas Instruments che incoraggiano il mercato e i produttori di semiconduttori non troppo legati al mondo del personal computer.

Da segnalare a Parigi il balzo di Vivendi, che guadagna il 3,63% e sui porta a 16,27 euro. Il big francese delle telecomunicazioni e dell’intrattenimento ha annunciato trattative in esclusiva con Etisalat, operatore degli Emirati Arabi che si appresta a cede il 53% di Maroc Telecom. L’operazione potrebbe valere circa 4,2 miliardi di euro.

A Londra si mettono in luce invece diversi titoli del comparto minerario. African Barrick Gold segna un rialzo del 3,55% (ieri un rally del metallo giallo ha fatto scattare le ricoperture di diversi fondi del settore). Molto bene anche Anglo American, che guadagna il 2,35% e ha registrato un utile nei giacimenti di minerali ferrosi di Kumba e nella divisione dedicata alla produzione di platino. Denaro anche su Antofagasta (+1,77%) e BHP Billiton (+1,92%).

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari in crescita

Il Ftse Mib segna +0,75%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,70%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,54%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,25%.
Positive le principali Borse del Vecchio Continente in apertura.

Sugli scudi Atlantia (+3,45%) dopo che gli analisti di Morgan Stanley hanno alzato a “overweight” (sovrappesare in portafoglio) dal precedente “equalweight” la raccomandazione sul titolo. Il prezzo obiettivo è stato posto a 15 euro dai precedenti 13,33.

Pesante Stm, che in avvio di seduta perde il 5,45% a 7,11 euro. Il titolo del gruppo italo-francese di semiconduttori è zavorrato dai risultati trimestrali, nuovamente in rosso. Perdita netta di 152 milioni di dollari, più del doppio rispetto ai 75 milioni dello stesso periodo del 2012. A pesare su Stm soprattutto i problemi derivanti dalla joint venture ST-Ericsson.

In crescita il comparto bancario: ben comprata Banca Popolare di Milano (+1,23%) dopo la performance negativa di ieri Acquisti anche su Banca Popolare Emilia Romagna (+1,94%), Banca Mps (+0,97%). Bene anche Mediobanca (+2,04%) e Unicredit (+1,1%) dopo che Barclays ha confermato il giudizio equal weight ed un target price di 3,8 euro.

Denaro su Telecom Italia ( +1,56%) in scia ai rialzi messi a segno dal settore telecomunicazioni europeo (+2,44%).


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Intesa Sanpaolo supera, dopo non pochi sforzi, la media mobile a 200 giorni, ora supporto a 1,316 circa, rafforzando l’ipotesi che il recupero scaturito dai minimi di inizio mese possa trasformarsi in qualcosa di piu’ di una semplice reazione tecnica. Grazie alla rottura di questa soglia è ora possibile il test di area 1,42, ultimo ostacolo prima che i prezzi possano ambire al ritorno sui massimi di metà maggio a 1,485. La violazione di 1,30 farebbe invece temere cali almeno fino in area 1,195, dove transita la linea che sale dai minimi del luglio 2012. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: acquistare in area 1,35 per il target a 1,48, stop sotto 1,3170. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 1,30 per il target a 1,48.

Avvio di ottava positivo per Saipem che si riaffaccia sulla resistenza a quota 15,99, lato inferiore dell’ampio gap ribassista del 17 giugno. In caso di superamento di questa soglia diverrebbe lecito credere nella ricopertura del gap, a quota 20,02. Resistenza intermedia a 18,60, quota pari al 50% di ritracciamento del ribasso dai top di marzo e livello corrispondente ai minimi di gennaio. La violazione dei minimi dell’11 luglio a 13,92 rischia invece di ricondurre i prezzi in prima battuta a 13,40 ed eventualmente sui minimi di fine giugno a 12,13.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire oltre 16  euro con stop sotto 14,90 euro per i target a 18,60 e 20,02 euro.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 13,92 euro. Incrementare oltre 16 euro per il target a 20,02 euro.

Segnali grafici positivi per Fondiaria Sai che con la rottura del picco del 5 luglio, a 1,5270, ha completato un doppio minimo disegnato a partire dal 3 luglio con base a 1,35 circa. La figura rialzista in base alla sua ampiezza proietta obiettivi sui massimi di maggio a 1,69. Resistenza intermedia a 1,60. Sotto 1,35 invece le oscillazioni dell’ultimo mese circa si dimostrerebbero un “rettangolo”, figura di continuazione del downtrend. Probabile in tal caso assistere ad un ripiegamento verso la media mobile a 200 giorni, in transito a 1,27 circa. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire sui livelli attuali protetti da stop sotto 1,45 euro per i target a 1,60 e 1,69 euro.  Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 1,35 euro per i target a 1,60 e 1,69 euro.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Martedì 23 Luglio 2013
08:45 FRA Indice fiducia imprese lug;
15:00 USA Indice prezzi abitazioni (FHFA) mag;
16:00 EUR Indice fiducia consumatori lug;
16:00 USA Indice manifatturiero Richmond Fed lug.


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HEADLINES
Stmicroelectronics, ricavi netti del secondo trimestre a 2,05 miliardi di dollari
Il gruppo Stmicroelectronics ha chiuso il secondo trimestre del 2013 con ricavi da 2,045 miliardi di dollari, in calo rispetto ai 2,148 miliardi del secondo quarto del 2012. Il margine lordo si attesta al 32,8% (vs. 34,3%). La perdita operativa “come riportato” è di 107 milioni di dollari a fronte del rosso da 207 milioni di un anno fa. La perdita operativa della capogruppo è di 152 milioni di dollari contro la perdita da 75 milioni al 30 giugno 2012. In termini non-GAAP (prima degli oneri di svalutazione, ristrutturazione e delle voci una tantum) Stm segna un rosso da 64 milioni di dollari in calo rispetto ai -151 milioni di un anno fa. Il management sottolinea che le vendite sono state in linea con la guidance e tra i fattori positivi segnala l’aumento dei volumi e delle efficienze di produzione, mentre continua a ridursi in maniera sostanziale il livello delle spese operative trimestrali.

Atlantia, Morgan Stanley la promuove a “overweight”
Gli analisti di Morgan Stanley hanno alzato a “overweight” (sovrappesare in portafoglio) dal precedente “equalweight” la raccomandazione sul titolo Atlantia. Il prezzo obiettivo è stato posto a 15 euro dai precedenti 13,33.

Debiti della Pubblica Amministrazione: attribuiti 15,7 mld, pagati meno di 5
Il ministero dell’Economia ha pubblicato i risultati di un monitoraggio sullo stato dei pagamenti dei debiti della Pubblica Amministrazione alle imprese creditrici secondo quanto disposto dal Decreto legge 35/2013. Dalle tabelle diffuse si deduce che sono già stati trasferiti agli enti locali circa 15,69 miliardi di euro, sui 20 miliardi previsti per l’intero 2013. Gli importi effettivamente versati alle aziende finora (totale liquidità erogata) sono però pari a circa 4,80 miliardi di euro, suddivisi tra le varie regioni. Il ministro dell’Economia Fabrizio Saccomanni ha comunque annunciato per il prossimo settembre una nuova tranche di pagamenti.

Engineering, ok dell’Antitrust brasiliana all’acquisizione di quote da parte di OEP Italy
Engineering Ingegneria Informatica è stata informata che in data 16 Luglio 2013 l’Autorità Brasiliana per la Concorrenza (Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Economica) ha adottato la propria decisione, pubblicata sulla Gazzetta Ufficiale brasiliana il successivo 17 luglio, che autorizza il perfezionamento della operazione di acquisizione da parte di OEP Italy High Tech DUE S.r.l. di 3.644.801 azioni ad oggi detenute dai soci Rosario, Costanza e Tommaso Amodeo, pari al 29,158% del capitale della società e al 29,9% della medesimo al netto delle azioni proprie possedute.

Vivendi tratta in esclusiva con Etisalat per la cessione di Maroc Telecom
La francese Vivendi ha annunciato di essere in trattativa esclusiva con l’operatore degli Emirati Arabi Etisalat per la cessione del 53% di Maroc Telecom. Valore previsto dell’operazione circa 4,2 miliardi. Positivo il titolo del gruppo di telecomunicazioni in avvio di seduta alla Borsa di Parigi, in rialzo dell’1,16% a 15,70 euro.

Swatch, crescono fatturato e utile nel primo semestre
Il fatturato lordo del Gruppo Swatch cresce nel primo semestre del 2013 a CHF 4 181 milioni (+8.7%) rispetto all’eccellente primo semestre 2012. Rispetto ai dati relativi alle esportazioni di orologi da polso dell’industria orolegiera svizzera con +1.5% nel primo semestre 2013, Swatch Group registra una crescita nel segmento Orologi & gioielli (compresa ora anche la produzione) di oltre 9%. L’Organico aumenta di 1.150 unità rispetto alla fine 2012, di cui 560 in Svizzera, a 31 000 unità in totale in tutto il mondo. L’Utile operativo è pari a CHF 910 milioni con un margine operativo del 22.7%, nonostante le elevate spese di marketing, gli importanti investimenti in prodotti e in metodi di produzione innovativi e rivoluzionari e naturalmente l’integrazione di Harry Winston. L’Utile netto registra una crescita del 6.1% respetto al primo semestre 2012 e si attesta a CHF 768 milioni con un rendimento sulla cifra d’affari netta del 19.2%. Il gruppo segnala una crescita continua in tutte le regioni e prospettive positive per un solido secondo semestre 2013.

Annunci

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 12/07/2013

MERCATO USA
Positivi gli indici di Wall Street: le parole di Bernanke infondono ottimismo sui mercati

In rialzo a Wall Street i maggiori indici azionari. L’S&P 500 guadagna l’1,36% e il Nasdaq 100 l’1,96 per cento. In rialzo anche il Dow Jones di 1,11 punti percentuali. A incoraggiare i mercati le parole di Ben Bernanke che ha mostrato una maggiore cautela nel percorso di uscita dalla politica super espansiva degli ultimi anni. In seno alla Fed sono comunque emerse posizioni sempre più discordi sull’opportunità di proseguire con il quantitative easing.

Poco pesano dunque i sussidi di disoccupazione risultati superiori alle attese. I prezzi alle importazioni Usa nel mese di giugno sono saliti dello 0,2% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012, risultando comunque al di sotto delle attese (+0,5%). Rispetto a maggio si è registrata una diminuizione dello 0,2% a fronte di una variazione nulla attesa dagli analisti. I prezzi alle esportazioni sono scesi dello 0,1% su base mensile, in linea con le attese, e sono cresciuti dello 0,8% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012.

Il Dipartimento del Tesoro statunitense ha annunciato di aver collocato 13 miliardi dollari in titoli a 30 anni (Cusip 912810RB6). Il rendimento del TBond si è attestato al 3,660%, in crescita rispetto al rendimento registrato nell’asta di giugno pari a 3,355%. Le richieste hanno superato il quantitativo offerto di 2,26 volte, in calo rispetto alle 2,47 volte dell’asta precedente.
In rialzo il gigante della distribuzione Costco che ha pubblicato dati sulle vendite di giugno oltre il consensus grazie anche ai prezzi più alti del carburante. L’azione guadagna a New York l’1,98 per cento.

In denaro anche Walgreens (+1,78%) che ha annunciato un incremento della cedola trimestrale del 14,5% a 31,5 centesimi.
Chevron (+0,71%) ha dichiarato che le attività petrolifere e del gas segneranno una flessione nel secondo trimestre a causa dei ridotti prezzi del greggio e dei costi di manutenzione.
Assai più interessanti i rialzi di ADM (ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES) che guadagna l’11,81% sulla scorta della promozione a buy da parte di Bank of America.

In denaro anche McGraw Hill Financial (+2,99%). La società alla quale fanno riferimento Standard & Poor’s, gli indici S&P Dow Jones, Platts e altro ancora, annuncia l’elezione di Douglas Peterson come presidente e amministratore delegato. Il manager, già alla presidenza dell’agenzia di rating Standard & Poor’s succederà a Terry McGraw III, attuale chairman, presidente e ad della società. Peterson sarà effettivo nel nuovo ruolo a partire dal prossimo primo novembre 2013.

Ben comprata Microsoft (+2,80%) dopo l’annuncio di una riorganizzazione della struttura societaria.
Sotto il riferimento invece YUM Brands che cede l’1,15% e si porta a 71,53 dollari dopo la pubblicazione di risultati trimestrali migliori delle attese, ma comunque in calo con un eps sceso da 67 a 46 centesimi.
Guadagna il 26,25% i titolo di Bridgepoint Education, che controlla l’Università di Ashford e ha annunciato la conferma dell’accredito da parte della Commissione per gli studi superiori.

Si mette in luce anche Texas Industries con un rialzo dell’1,59% che ha registrato un utile core sopra le attese e ricavi oltre il consensus (sebbene l’utile de quarto trimestre fiscale sia sceso del 27%).

JPMorgan Chase (+0,57%) è salito a 55,14 dollari mentre Wells Fargo è sceso dello 0,43% a 41,89 dollari: domani verranno pubblicati i risultati del secondo trimestre 2013 dei due istituti di credito.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Mercati asiatici in calo questa mattina. Poco sopra la parità il Nikkei

Poco mosso il Nikkei in chiusura di ottava. L’indice termina gli scambi a quota 14506,25, in progresso dello 0,23%, senza riuscire a varcare la soglia critica posta in area 14500/14600 che da alcune sedute frena le ambizioni di crescita dell’indice giapponese. Solo un successo su questo livello, pari al 61,8% di ritracciamento della correzione partita a maggio, permetterebbe infatti di rilanciare l’uptrend in direzione dei record di quest’anno a 16000 punti. Nella direzione opposta, discese fino a 13600/13700, pur indebolendo lo slancio, resteranno compatibili con tale scenario. Sotto 13600 invece primi segnali in favore del ritorno in area 12400 dove sono posizionati i minimi di giugno, il cui cedimento spalancherebbe le porte verso i bottom di aprile a 11800 circa e poi al test a 11400, pari al 61,8% di ritracciamento della salita da novembre e livello coincidente con i massimi del 2010.

Moderata crescita anche per il Topix a 1201,99 punti (+0,6%). Sul versante macroeconomico il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria giapponese ha comunicato questa mattina il dato finale sulla Produzione Industriale di maggio. Tale rilevazione si e’ attestata al +1,9% confermando la lettura preliminare e in decisa crescita rispetto alle attese degli economisti fissate su una variazione nulla. Su base annuale il dato ha fatto segnare una contrazione dell’1,1%, mentre la capacità di utilizzazione degli impianti è cresciuta del 2,3% a fronte di una variazione positiva pari all’1,6% rilevata in aprile. In crescita il settore delle minerario: Sumitomo Metal Mining ha messo a segno un progresso del 4,15%, Mitsubishi Materials del 4,20%, Pacific Materials del 4,28%. Male invece Fast Retailing, uno dei maggiori rivenditori di abbigliamento in Asia, che ha ceduto quasi 6 punti percentuali dopo la pubblicazione di un risultato operativo relativo al secondo trimestre 2013 sotto le attese.

In calo invece le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Hong Kong cede lo 0,84%, Shangai l’1,32%, mentre Seoul arretra dello 0,41%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Denaro sull’azionario europeo durante la prima fase delle contrattazioni

In rialzo i listini europei in quest’ultima seduta di ottava. Il Dax tedesco guadagna lo 0,47% e il Cac 40 lo 0,27% mentre il Ftse 100 segna un rialzo dello 0,32 per cento. In territorio negativo invece l’Ibex 35 (-0,26%); il Ftse Mib italiano viaggia appena sopra la parità con un rialzo dello 0,18 per cento.

A Francoforte si mette in luce la società energetica RWE che guadagna l’1,47% in Borsa e si porta a 22,84 euro per azione. Secondo quanto riportato dal Wall Street Journal lo Stato del Qatar, tramite una sua controllata, avrebbe avviato delle trattative preliminari per l’acquisizione delle attività Dea di petrolio e gas della società tedesca. L’unità Dea di esplorazione e produzione di idrocarburi di RWE è stata messa in vendita lo scorso marzo.

Intonato positivamente anche il mercato francese, sebbene Schneider Electric durante queste prime fasi di contrattazione un ribasso del 3,72 per cento. Il gruppo ha confermato l’avvio di trattative preliminari con il consiglio di amministrazione di Invensys in merito a una possibile offerta su tutto il capitale della società.

A Londra, in contemporanea, Invensys guadagna in Borsa il 16,11 per cento. Quest’ultima, a seguito delle recenti indiscrezioni, ha pubblicato una nota (senza il via libera di Schneider Electric) in cui conferma di avere ricevuto una proposta indicativa dalla compagnia di 505 pence per ogni azioni ordinaria e specificava che l’offerta era suddivisa per ogni titoli in 319 pence in contanti e in 186 pence per ogni azione di Schneider. Il cda di Invensys si era già orientato favorevolmente in proposito.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari in rosso con Enel e Telecom

Il Ftse Mib segna -0,4%, il Ftse Italia All-Share -0,3%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap -0,1%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,1%.
Borse europee in territorio positivo. Ieri sera a New York l’S&P 500 ha terminato a +1,36%, il Nasdaq a +1,63%, il Dow Jones a +1,11%. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in lieve calo. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha terminato a +0,23%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng al momento segna -0,6% circa.

Netta flessione per Enel (-2,7%) dopo che Standard & Poor’s ha comunicato di aver rivisto al ribasso il rating a lungo termine di Enel a “BBB” dal precedente “BBB+”, con outlook stabile. La modifica del rating di Enel fa seguito alla revisione del rating della Repubblica Italiana.

Le vendite colpiscono anche gli altri titoli del settore come A2A (-1,3%), Terna (-0,6%) e Snam (-0,4%). L’indice EURO STOXX Utilities cede quasi un punto percentuale.

Debole Telecom Italia (-2%) dopo la proposta di riduzione dei canoni di accesso wholesale alla rete che l’AgCom ha deciso di presentare alla Commissione UE. Per Telecom l’intervento dell’Autorità si pone in controtendenza con gli orientamenti della Commissione.
Petroliferi positivi in scia all’indice EURO STOXX Oil & Gas che al momento guadagna lo 0,7% circa.

Eni (+1,2%) in rialzo all’indomani dell’annuncio da parte dell’a.d. Paolo Scaroni dell’avvio di una perforazione esplorativa di gas naturale al largo delle coste di Cipro nella seconda metà del 2014. Sempre ieri Eni, nell’ambito dell’Assemblea annuale di Anigas, ha annunciato il lancio di una nuova offerta per gli operatori nazionali e internazionali del mercato del gas.

Positiva Saipem (+1,1%) all’indomani della decisione del Tribunale di Milano di multare la società di 600mila euro e di confiscare la cauzione da oltre 24 milioni nel procedimento relativo a presunti illeciti in Nigeria. Saipem ha comunicato che la decisione non ha alcun impatto finanziario e che ricorrerà in appello.


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Azimut ha disegnato il 10 luglio, in corrispondenza di una importante resistenza, una candela dalle implicazioni ribassiste. I prezzi si sono infatti lasciati alle spalle sul grafico ad elementi giornalieri una candela di tipo “hanging man”, un “impiccato”, appartenente alla famiglia dei martelli che spesso compare in prossimita’ di importanti punti di svolta. I massimi di mercoledi’ a 14,95 si collocano poi a stretto contatto con il 61,8% di ritracciamento del ribasso dal top di maggio, percentuale derivata dalla successione di Fibonacci, cara agli studiosi dei grafici per la sua capacita’ di saper bene distinguere tra movimenti correttivi e di vera e propria inversione. Fintanto che area 14,95 non verra’ superata il rischio di aver assistito con il rimbalzo in atto dai minimi del 24 giugno ad una semplice pausa del trend ribassista visto dal top di maggio sara’ da considerare elevato. Sotto i minimi dell’hanging man a 14,59 verrebbe inviato un primo segnale di debolezza, conferme poi al di sotto di 14,30 per il test di area 13,20. In ottica temporale piu’ estesa non si possono escludere movimenti fino alla media mobile a 200 giorni, in area 12,20. Oltre i 15 euro probabile invece il test dei massimi di area 16 euro di maggio. Per chi volesse comprare il titolo attendere la rottura di 15 per intervenire con target a 16 e stop sotto 14,50. Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere lo stop a 14,50, incrementare oltre i 15 euro per il test di area 16.

BP Milano strappa al rialzo e si avvicina alla resistenza rappresentata dall’ex supporto a 0,3605 euro, minimo del 13 giugno. Una vittoria oltre tale livello fornirebbe ai prezzi l’abbrivio per un allungo verso 0,40/0,41, riferimenti decisivi per assistere all’avvio di un tentativo di inversione della tendenza negativa di breve/medio periodo con obiettivi a 0,44 e 0,48. Il rialzo di ieri ha lasciato un gap rialzista a 0,3430 per cui non è improbabile che i corsi, anche nel caso in cui risulti valido lo scenario descritto in precedenza, arretrino prima fino a chiudere il gap stesso. La violazione di 0,3150 anticiperebbe invece un test del recente minimo a 0,2961, sostegno determinante per scongiurare la riattivazione della tendenza negativa.  Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 0,3605 per 0,40, stop sotto 0,34. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 0,41 per 0,44 e 0,48, ridurre sotto 0,3150 e uscire alla violazione di 0,2961.

Terna è impegnata nel tentativo di recuperare terreno dopo la correzione che ha preso le mosse dal record storico di inizio maggio. Segnali incoraggianti in tal senso arriverebbero a seguito del superamento del massimo del 18 giugno a 3,3820 euro, prologo a estensioni verso 3,43 in prima battuta e quindi sul record a 3,6020. In ottica temporale di più ampio respiro possiamo osservare che al di sopra del massimo assoluto verrebbe riattivata la tendenza ascendente di lungo periodo verso 3,75 almeno. Indicazioni di tenore opposto con discese sotto 3,15, evento che favorirebbe un affondo verso il minimo di fine giugno a 3,0420. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 3,3820 per 3,43 e 3,60, stop sotto 3,22. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 3,6020 per 3,75, ridurre sotto 3,15 e uscire alla violazione di 3,0420.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Venerdì 12 luglio
06:30 GIA Produzione industriale mag;
09:00 SPA Inflazione giu;
10:00 ITA Inflazione giu;
11:00 EUR Produzione industriale mag;
14:30 USA Indice prezzi alla produzione giu;
15:55 USA Indice fiducia consumatori (Univ. Michigan) prelim. lug.


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HEADLINES
Telecom Italia, decisione Agcom in contrasto con gli orientamenti comunitari
Telecom Italia afferma in una nota che la proposta di riduzione dei canoni di accesso wholesale alla rete in rame (servizi di Unbundling del local loop, bitstream naked, bitstream condiviso e Wholesale Line Rental), che il Consiglio dell’Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni ha deciso di notificare alla Commissione europea in data 11 luglio 2013, presenta evidenti profili di contrasto rispetto al quadro europeo. L’intervento dell’Autorità si porrebbe in controtendenza rispetto ad un percorso che, negli ultimi anni, ha portato ad un allineamento del canone ULL di Telecom Italia alla media ponderata dei principali Paesi europei (Germania, Francia, Spagna e Regno Unito), attualmente pari a 9,29 €/mese. La proposta sarebbe inoltre, contraria agli orientamenti della Commissione europea, che auspica la stabilità dei canoni ULL, nonché alle tendenze in atto nei principali Stati membri, le cui Autorità hanno recentemente approvato canoni ULL 2013 in crescita rispetto al 2012 (Germania, Francia e Spagna) o sostanzialmente stabili (Regno Unito).

Enel: Standard & Poor’s abbassa il rating a BBB
L’agenzia Standard & Poor’s ha comunicato di aver rivisto il rating a lungo termine di Enel a “BBB” dal precedente “BBB+”. La stessa agenzia ha confermato ad “A-2” il rating a breve termine di Enel. L’outlook è stabile. La modifica del rating di Enel fa seguito alla revisione del rating della Repubblica Italiana recentemente disposta da Standard & Poor’s che riflette, tra l’altro, il deterioramento del quadro macroeconomico nel Paese.

Terna, Standard and Poor’s taglia il rating da ‘A-‘ a ‘BBB+’
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) ha ridotto il rating di lungo termine di Terna da ‘A-‘ a ‘BBB+’, confermando allo stesso tempo il rating di breve termine dell’azienda ad ‘A-2’. L’outlook assegnato al rating rimane negativo.
Tale azione segue il recente downgrade di un notch, da BBB+ a BBB, della Repubblica Italiana. Il rating di Terna rimane comunque di un notch superiore a quello della Repubblica Italiana.

Rcs, siglato accordo per la cessione di Dada
Rcs rende noto in un comunicato di aver sottoscritto il contratto per la cessione di Dada a Orascom Tmt Investments, che rileva il 54,6% del capitale del gruppo. “L’enterprise value riconosciuto da Orascom Tmt Investments per la totalità di Dada è pari a 83 milioni di euro e corrisponde a un equity value stimato in circa 55 milioni. Alla chiusura dell’operazione e ai sensi della normativa applicabile la società acquirente lancerà un’offerta pubblica di acquisto sull’intero capitale di Dada. Il gruppo editoriale stima in circa 58 milioni il beneficio finanziario dalla transazione, incluso il deconsolidamento al 100%. Un valore che è soggetto a possibili aggiustamenti derivanti dalle verifiche della posizione finanziaria netta consolidata al 30 giugno 2013. Dada fa sapere che “successivamente al perfezionamento della compravendita, il Consiglio di Amministrazione del gruppo si riunirà per pronunciarsi sulle materie di propria competenza, nei modi e nei tempi previsti dalla normativa applicabile, anche con riferimento alla prospettata offerta pubblica di acquisto sulle azioni di dada detenute dal mercato”.

Juventus, perfezionato l’accordo con il Torino su Angelo Obinze Ogbonna
Juventus Football Club ha perfezionato l’accordo con il Torino Football Club per l’acquisizione a titolo definitivo del diritto alle prestazioni sportive del calciatore Angelo Obinze Ogbonna. Il contratto prevede un corrispettivo di € 13 milioni pagabili in 3 anni. Il valore di acquisto potrà incrementarsi di ulteriori massimi € 2 milioni al raggiungimento di determinati obiettivi sportivi nel corso della durata contrattuale. Juventus ha sottoscritto con lo stesso calciatore un contratto di prestazione sportiva quinquennale.

Prelios: avvio aumento di capitale previsto per il 22 luglio
Facendo seguito a quanto già comunicato al mercato in data 28 giugno 2013, Prelios rende noto che la Consob ha fornito i chiarimenti richiesti in merito alle condizioni dell’esenzione degli obblighi di OPA in capo ai partecipanti all’operazione, di cui all’esenzione accordata in data 31 maggio 2013 con la Delibera Consob n. 18565. La Consob ha confermato l’approvazione del prospetto informativo relativo all’offerta in opzione agli aventi diritto e all’ammissione a quotazione delle azioni ordinarie di nuova emissione di Prelios, rivenienti dall’aumento di capitale scindibile e a pagamento per un importo massimo di Euro 115.009.511,53, da offrirsi in opzione a tutti gli azionisti della Società, mediante emissione di massime 193.195.887 azioni ordinarie, prive di valore nominale, ad un prezzo di emissione per azione di Euro 0,5953. La Società, pertanto, avvierà l’aumento di capitale in opzione, secondo il calendario di Borsa Italiana. A tal riguardo, la Società comunicherà tempestivamente il relativo periodo d’offerta, che si ipotizza possa prendere avvio, previa pubblicazione del Prospetto Informativo, lunedì 22 luglio 2013, anche tenuto conto del completamento delle attività in corso da parte dei partecipanti all’operazione ai fini dell’esenzione OPA.

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 10/07/2013

MERCATO USA
Wall Street continua a crescere sostenuta dall’ottimismo sulle trimestrali

Ancora in verde i maggiori indici azionari a Wall Street. I rialzi sono sostenuti da un diffuso ottimismo sull’andamento delle trimestrali delle maggiori società statunitensi che hanno appena cominciato a diffondere i dati. L’S&P 500 guadagna lo 0,72% e il Nasdaq 100 segna un rialzo dello 0,61%. In rialzo dello 0,50% anche l’indice Dow Jones.

Non mancano le note stonate come la decisione del Fondo Monetario Internazionale di rivedere al ribasso le stime sulla crescita mondiale nel periodico World Economic Outlook. Nel rapporto sono state tagliate le previsioni per l’Eurozona, per gli Stati Uniti e per la Cina, mentre l’economia giapponese è stata promossa a seguito degli interventi straordinari di immissione di liquidità. Anche la Casa Bianca ha tagliato le previsioni del PIL per il 2013, soprattutto per la frenata nell’economia cinese e le ripercussioni della crisi europea.

A New York sorprende la flessione di Alcoa, che cede lo 0,43% nonostante la pubblicazione ieri alla chiusura dei mercati di risultati in crescita e superiori alle attese nel secondo trimestre del 2013. Si può notare che i prezzi dell’alluminio per ora rimangono bassi anche a causa di scorte troppo elevate tra i produttori (come appunto Alcoa).

Male anche IBM (-1,89%) nonostante la società abbia raggiunto un accordo definitivo per l’acquisizione di CSL International, un fornitore di tecnologie per la gestione della virtualizzazione per il sistema zEnterprise del gruppo. CSL International è una società privata con sede a Hezliya Pituach, in Israele. Con questa operazione la società americana intende rafforzarsi accelerando la transizione al cloud computing per il suo Sistema z. I termini finanziari dell’operazione non sono stati divulgati.

Da evidenziare i forti rialzi del gruppo retail Kroger, che guadagna il 2,65% dopo avere annunciato l’acquisizione per 2,5 miliardi di dollari di Harris Teeter (+1,53% a 49,26 dollari). Per le azioni della catena da 212 punti vendita sono stati proposti 49,38 dollari.
Importanti cambiamenti anche in Barnes & Noble: il gruppo statunitense che distribuisce prodotti culturali ed educativi ha annunciato che William Lynch ha lasciato l’incarico di amministratore delegato della società. L’azione segna un rialzo del 5,38% in attesa di cambiamenti strategici e gestionali.

Debutto in denaro sul Nasdaq 100 per Tesla Motors. Il produttore di auto elettriche prende il posto di Oracle (-0,41%) e guadagna in borsa l’1,51 per cento.

In forte ripiegamento invece Intuitive Surgical (-16,15%) dopo la pubblicazione dei risultati relativi al secondo trimestre 2013, pari a 575 milioni di dollari e di gran lunga inferiori ai 630 milioni attesi degli analisti, e le deludenti vendite di Vinci Surgical Systems.

Il comparto azionario Usa dimostra comunque ottimismo con notevoli recuperi per titoli di peso. Caterpillar guadagna il 2,56%, Coca Cola lo 0,72%, Comcast lo 0,61% e Cisco lo 2,15%. Da segnalare anche i forti rialzi di Dow Chemical (+2,81%).

In denaro Netflix (+6,13%), che di recente ha annunciato un’estensione degli accordi sulla libreria di contenuti negli Stati Uniti con la CBS.

Il Dipartimento del Tesoro statunitense ha annunciato di aver collocato 32 miliardi dollari in titoli a tre anni (Cusip 912828VL1). Il rendimento del TNote si e’ attestato allo 0,719%, superiore a quello registrato nell’asta precedente pari a 0,581%. Le richieste hanno superato il quantitativo offerto di 3,35 volte, inferiore alle 3,41 volte dell’asta precedente.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Il Nikkei si arena contro una resistenza significativa

Seduta incolore per il Nikkei, in calo dello 0,39% a quota 14416,60. L’indice ha testato questa mattina area 14500 senza tuttavia riuscire ad avere ragione di questo riferimento critico nel medio breve termine, pari al 61,8% di ritracciamento della correzione partita a maggio. Resta dunque elevato il rischio che questa resistenza possa arginare le ambizioni di crescita dell’indice giapponese. Solo oltre area 14500/14600 verrebbero infatti rilanciate le prospettive di crescita in direzione dei record di quest’anno a 16000 punti. Nella direzione opposta, discese fino a 13600/13700, pur indebolendo lo slancio, resteranno compatibili con tale scenario. Sotto 13600 invece primi segnali in favore del ritorno in area 12400 dove sono posizionati i minimi di giugno, il cui cedimento spalancherebbe le porte verso i bottom di aprile a 11800 circa e poi al test a 11400, pari al 61,8% di ritracciamento della salita da novembre e livello coincidente con i massimi del 2010. In lieve calo anche il Topix a 1195,20 punti (-0,1%). Sul versante macroeconomico il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria nipponico ha comunicato questa mattina il dato relativo all‘Indice del Settore Terziario di maggio. Tale rilevazione ha fatto segnare un incremento dell’1,2% su base mensile, risultando superiore alle attese degli analisti che avevano stimato una crescita dello 0,9%. Rivisto al ribasso tuttavia il dato relativo ad aprile, da +0,0% a -0,5%. La Banca del Giappone questa mattina ha reso noto il dato relativo all‘Indice dei prezzi dei beni acquistati dalle aziende. In giugno l’indice è cresciuto dello 0,1% su base mensile (il consensus era per una variazione nulla), dopo il risultato invariato della rilevazione precedente. Su base annuale il dato ha registrato un incremento dell’1,2%, in linea con le attese. Rivista al ribasso la rilevazione precedente, da +0,6% a +0,5% a/a. L’Ufficio di Gabinetto nipponico ha comunicato questa mattina il dato relativo all‘Indice di Fiducia dei Consumatori. A giugno tale rilevazione ha fatto segnare un valore pari a 44,3 punti dai 45,7 del mese di maggio, risultando ben al di sotto delle attese degli analisti che avevano stimato un valore pari a 47,2 punti. La Bilancia Commerciale cinese ha fatto registrare in giugno un surplus di 27,1 miliardi di dollari, superiore alle attese degli analisti pari a 27,0 miliardi e in crescita rispetto ai 20,4 miliardi di maggio. Le esportazioni sono scese del 3,1% rispetto ad un anno fa (dato atteso +4%) mentre le importazioni sono scese dello 0,7% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012, deludendo le attese degli addetti ai lavori fissate su un incremento dell’8,0%. I dati odierni evidenziano quindi un ulteriore rallentamento nel gigante economico asiatico in scia alla debolezza globale.

In calo le società esportatrici come Mazda (-1,14%), Toyota (-0,31%). Tra i titoli bancari, Mizuho Financial Group è cresciuto di quasi l’1% e Chiba Bank dell’1,38%. Nel settore auto, Honda Motor ha fatto registrare un calo dello 0,91% e Suzuki ha terminato la seduta in parità, mentre la Nissan Motor è scesa dello 0,18%.

Contrastate le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Hong Kong guadagna  lo 0,94%, Shangai cresce dell’1,71%, mentre Seoul cede lo 0,34%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Avvio in rialzo per i listini europei

Avvio in territorio positivo per gli indici azionari europei. Il Dax 30 registra un rialzo dello 0,21% e l’S&P 500 guadagna lo 0,72% mentre l’Ibex 35 cede lo 0,32 per cento. In vantaggio sul riferimento il Ftse 100 (+0,24%).

A Francoforte segna un rialzo del 2,36% il titolo del gigante del gruppo Henkel (prodotti per la casa e cosmetica). Guadagna terreno anche Deutsche Bank (+2,06%) che si muove in controtendenza a Commerzbank (-1,05%). Nei giorni scorsi il SIX Exchange Regulation svizzero aveva aperto un’inchiesta sui Commerzbank per possibile violazione degli obblighi di comunicazione correlati a due titoli floating reverse convertibili di Schoach Schweiz.

In denaro a Parigi EDF, che guadagna lo 0,95 per cento. Alcune quote della società energetica più importante d’Europa potrebbero essere cedute dal governo francese per finanziare (grazie anche a cessioni in diverse partecipate) un fondo da 12 miliardi di euro da mettere al servizio del rilancio dell’economia. Sotto il riferimento invece Casino (-0,11%): l’Antitrust francese ha dato il proprio via libera all’acquisizione del controllo esclusivo di Monoprix, un’operazione da 1,18 miliardi di euro. L’Autorità per la concorrenza ha però imposto la cessione di alcuni punti vendita e Casino si è impegnato a cederne 55 a Parigi.

A Madrid perde quota Caixabank (-3,57%), una delle banche incaricate ieri dal Tesoro spagnolo di gestire l’emissione da 3,5 miliardi di euro a quindici anni.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari in flessione dopo downgrade Italia di S&P. Bancari sotto pressione

Il Ftse Mib segna -0,4%, il Ftse Italia All-Share -0,4%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap -0,2%, il Ftse Italia Star -0,4%.
Borse europee poco mosse. Ieri sera a New York l’S&P 500 ha terminato a +0,72%, il Nasdaq a +0,56%, il Dow Jones a +0,50%. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in lieve rialzo. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha terminato a -0,39%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng al momento segna +1% circa.

Avvio difficile per i titoli del settore bancario dopo il Downgrade di S&P sull’Italia e il conseguente recupero dello spread Btp/Bund, attualmente a 285 bp dai 275 circa della chiusura di ieri. In evidenza UBI Banca (-1,4%), BP Emilia Romagna (-1,1%), Banca MPS (-1%).

In rosso Mediaset (-0,9%) all’indomani della decisione della Corte di Cassazione che ha fissato al 30 luglio l’udienza per il ricorso contro la condanna in appello a quattro anni di reclusione per frode fiscale e a cinque per interdizione dai pubblici uffici nei confronti di Silvio Berlusconi. Per Franco Coppi, uno dei legali dell’ex-premier, la decisione è tecnicamente ineccepibile ma la tempistica è troppo affrettata.

Debole Generali (-1,1% a 14,1 euro) dopo l’annuncio della volontà di acquisire il 7% della controllata Generali Deutschland per poi procedere al delisting della stessa. La compagnia triestina sta finanziando l’operazione con il collocamento di 15,5 milioni di azioni proprie a un prezzo indicato da Reuters nella parte alta della forchetta 13,90-14,25 euro. Gli esperti di Credit Suisse hanno portato il target price di Generali a 15,6 euro da 15,5 euro e confermato il giudizio “underperform” (farà peggio del mercato/settore).

Netta flessione per RCS MediaGroup (-3,4%) nel giorno della partenza della negoziazione dei diritti inoptati dell’aumento di capitale, pari al 15%, che corrisponde allo 0,8% dell’attuale capitale sociale ordinario.

Resta alta l’attenzione degli operatori nei confronti del settore lusso dopo l’acquisizione di Loro Piana da parte della francese LVMH. Il Sole 24 Ore scrive oggi che lo shopping dei colossi esteri in Italia potrebbe continuare con Armani, Cavalli e Versace e con la quotata Basicnet (+1,5%). Positive anche Tod’s (+1,4%), Ferragamo (+0,6%) e Cucinelli (+1,5%).


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Mediolanum prova a ritracciare le perdite viste tra maggio e giugno e si porta a contatto con il primo ostacolo significativo, quello posizionato sui 5,1350 euro. Una chiusura di seduta superiore a detto livello anticiperebbe probabilmente un allungo verso i top di maggio a 5,69, resistenza oltre la quale verrebbe riattivato il movimento ascendente in forza da circa un anno verso 6,80 almeno (massimi allineati del 2007). Eventuali discese sotto 4,90 preluderebbero al ritorno sui recenti minimi a 4,60 circa, supporto decisivo per scongiurare la ripresa della flessione. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 5,1350 per 5,69, stop sotto 4,90. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 5,69 per 6,80, ridurre sotto 4,90 e uscire alla violazione di 4,60.
Telecom Italia ha toccato ieri un massimo intraday a 0,5445 euro. I prezzi hanno disegnato nelle ultime settimane, dai minimi del 20 giugno, un potenziale doppio minimo con base a 0,5050 euro circa. Nel corso del rialzo delle ultime due giornate i prezzi hanno superato le medie mobili a 100 e 200 ore, adesso supporto rispettivamente a 0,5230 e 0,54 euro, ma servira’ anche la rottura di 0,5530 per rendere credibile una evoluzione rialzista duratura. In quel caso si aprirebbe la strada al test di 0,60 circa, obiettivo calcolato in base alla proiezione dell’ampiezza del doppio minimo. Resistenza intermedia a 0,5715 circa, 38,2% di ritracciamento (Fibonacci) del ribasso dal top di fine maggio. La mancata rottura di 0,5530 e la violazione di 0,53 prospetterebbero il ritorno sulla base della fase laterale in area 0,5050. Sotto quei valori grave segnale ribassista per 0,455 circa. Per chi volesse comprare il titolo attendere la rottura di 0,553 per intervenire con target a 0,60 e stop loss subito sotto 0,54. Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere uno stop sotto 0,525, incrementare oltre 0,553 per 0,60.
UBI Banca reagisce con un rimbalzo una volta giunta al test (il terzo a partire da novembre) del supporto a 2,65/2,70 euro. Per dare concretezza al tentativo di recupero i prezzi dovranno oltrepassare i quota 3,10, operazione che consentirebbe loro di dirigersi verso 3,27 in prima battuta, e successivamente sui 3,55 almeno. Al momento il quadro grafico resta molto difficile dato che i sostegni citati in precedenza sono molto vicini. In caso di violazione degli stessi verrebbe completato il potenziale ampio testa e spalle ribassista in formazione da novembre, pattern capace di proiettare il titolo verso il minimo storico della scorsa estate poco sopra gli 1,80. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 3,10 per 3,27, stop sotto 2,95. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 3,10 per 3,55, uscire alla violazione di 2,65.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Mercoledì 10 luglio 2013
01:50 GIA Indice del settore terziario mag;
07:00 GIA Indice fiducia consumatori;
08:00 GER Inflazione giu;
08:45 FRA Produzione industriale mag;
10:00 ITA Produzione industriale mag;
16:00 USA Scorte e vendite all’ingrosso;
16:30 USA Scorte settimanali petrolio e derivati;20:00 USA Pubblicazione verbali ultimo FOMC;
22:10 USA Intervento Bernanke (Fed) su politica economica.


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HEADLINES
Downgrade di S&P’s sull’Italia. Risale lo spread
La scure di Standard & Poor’s si abbatte sull’Italia. Ieri sera l’agenzia di rating ha abbassato il giudizio sul Bel Paese da BBB+ a BBB, solo due gradi sopra il livello junk. L’outlook rimane negativo e S&P’s precisa che esiste una possibilità su tre di un ulteriore downgrade nel prossimo biennio. A determinare la decisione di una delle grandi sorelle la mancanza di chiarezza su Imu e Iva ed i tassi dei prestiti alle imprese che rimangono di gran lunga sopra i livelli di pre-crisi. Bisognerà ora vedere quale sarà la reazione dei mercati, anche alla luce dell’asta dei Bot prevista per oggi. Intanto lo spread tra i Btp ed i Bund si attesta stamane a 284 punti base, con un rendimento del decennale al 4,47%.

Fiat Industrial: assemblea straordinaria approva fusione con CNH Global N.V.
L’assemblea straordinaria degli azionisti di Fiat Industrial ha approvato la fusione tra Fiat Industrial e CNH Global in una società di nuova costituzione la cui denominazione sarà CNH Industrial. L’assemblea straordinaria degli azionisti di CNH Global chiamata ad approvare la predetta fusione è prevista per il 23 luglio 2013 e, in tale sede, Fiat Industrial voterà in favore della fusione, come azionista di CNH Global con una quota di circa l’87%. Subordinatamente al perfezionamento dell’operazione, tutti gli azionisti di Fiat Industrial riceveranno un’azione ordinaria CNH Industrial per ogni azione Fiat Industrial dagli stessi posseduta alla data della fusione. I possessori di azioni Fiat Industrial che non abbiano votato in favore della fusione potranno esercitare il diritto di recesso per un periodo di quindici giorni successivi all’iscrizione della delibera assembleare presso il Registro delle Imprese di Torino. In caso di recesso, il prezzo da pagarsi è pari ad Euro 8,897 per ogni azione ordinaria Fiat Industrial. I futuri componenti del consiglio di amministrazione di CNH Industrial saranno i seguenti: John Elkann, Mina Gerowin, Patrizia Grieco, Léo W. Houle, Peter Kalantzis, John Lanaway, Sergio Marchionne, Guido Tabellini, Jacqueline Tammenoms Bakker, Jacques Theurillat eRichard Tobin.

Generali verso il pieno controllo di Generali Deutschland Holding
Generali intende raggiungere il pieno controllo di Generali Deutschland Holding, il secondo gruppo assicurativo in Germania, con l’acquisizione della quota di minoranza del 7%. Generali ha raggiunto l’accordo per l’acquisizione da un gruppo di investitori privati di una quota del 3% di Generali Deutschland Holding, dopo la quale supererà la soglia del 95%. In seguito a questa transazione, Generali intende esercitare il previsto diritto di avviare la procedura di squeeze-out del rimanente 4% ottenendo il pieno controllo azionario della società. In seguito all’operazione, la cui conclusione è prevista entro il primo semestre del 2014, Generali riterrà l’intero risultato netto generato da Generali Deutschland Holding, pari a €504 milioni nel 2012.

Publicis fa spese in Cina
La francese Publicis ha rilevato la cinese Netalk. Ancora sconosciuti i dettagli dell’operazione. Fondata nel 2007 a Shangai, Netalk offre servizi di ricerca, analisi, pianificazione e creazione dei contenuti nell’area dei social media.

Finmeccanica-Enav, scattano arresti e perquisizioni in tutta Italia
Arresti e perquisizioni in corso in tutta Italia in relazione al fallimento della società ArcTrade, già al centro dell’inchiesta sugli appalti Enav-Finmeccanica. L’operazione condotta dalla Procura di Roma sta impegnando le forze della Polizia Tributaria e dei Carabinieri del Ros. Sarebbe già stato arrestato Marco Iannilli, commercialista e titolare della società ArcTrade. In totale finora sarebbero state arrestate 10 persone e sarebbero 23 gli indagati. Le ipotesi di reato andrebbero dalla bancarotta fraudolenta (sia patrimoniale che documentale) all’emissione di fatture per operazioni inesistenti, al riciclaggio e al trasferimento fraudolento di valori.

Deutsche Bank si conferma positiva su Azimut
Gli analisti di Deutsche Bank confermano il giudizio “buy” su Azimut e portano il target price a 16 euro.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 24/05/2013

F R I D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 24, 2013
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

Total Orders (expected +1.3%; previous -5.7%)

Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -4.7%)

Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -1.4%)

Monday, May 27, 2013
N/A                Memorial Day in U.S.

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday following yesterday’s key
reversal down. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are
turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2955.00 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally,
weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 3053.50. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing near 3084.00. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 2955.00. Second support is May’s low crossing at 2862.24.

The June S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday’s decline.
A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1626.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If June extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside
targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 1685.50. Second resistance is will be hard to project with June extending
this year’s rally into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1651.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1626.71.

The Dow closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday’s key reversal down
unconfirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If the Dow
extends the rally off November’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets
will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
15,086 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 15,542. Second resistance will be hard to project
with the Dow trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 15,264. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 15,086.

______________________________

_______________________________________
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

June T-bonds closed up 7/32’s at 143-02.

June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
the Wednesday’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement
level of the March-May rally crossing at 141-19 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-29 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 144-03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
145-29. First support is today’s low crossing at 142-09. Second support is the
87% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 141-19.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

July crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
today’s early weakness. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but turning bearish hinting that a double top might be in or is near.
Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13 are needed to confirm that
a double top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April’s low,
April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is
May’s high crossing at 97.17. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at
98.06. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13. Second support
is May’s low crossing at 90.32.

June heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week’s
decline. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 281.93 are needed to confirm that a top
has been posted. If June renews the rally off April’s low, the 50% retracement
level of the February-April decline crossing at 298.06 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April
decline crossing at 298.06. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the
February-April decline crossing at 304.20. First support is last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 281.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.97.

June unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.94. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off
May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at
296.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high
crossing at 292.76. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of the
February-May decline crossing at 296.67. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 277.04. Second support is May’s low crossing at 268.79.

June Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last week’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 4.444 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 4.064 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 4.269. Second
resistance is May’s high crossing at 4.444. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 4.064. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of
this year’s rally crossing at 3.831.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates below
resistance marked by the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline
crossing at 84.52. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month’s rally, the July
2012 high crossing at 85.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 83.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 84.59. Second resistance
is the July 2012 high crossing at 85.29. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 83.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 83.02.

The June Euro closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.06 are needed to confirm that a
low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May’s high, April’s low
crossing at 127.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 130.06. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 131.98. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 127.98.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 127.51.

The June British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline, March’s low crossing at 1.4823 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5362 are needed to confirm
that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1.5209. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5362. First support is today’s low crossing at 1.5012. Second support is
March’s low crossing at 1.4823.

The June Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline off last week’s high, the July 2012 low crossing at .10148 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10513 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at .10348. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10513. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
.10166. Second support is the July 2012 low crossing at .10148.

The June Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as
it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last
May’s low crossing at 95.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 98.43 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.77.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.43. First support
is today’s low crossing at 96.15. Second support is last May’s low crossing at
95.30.

The June Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
year’s decline, monthly support crossing at .9421 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9960 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .9960. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10147.
First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at .9640. Second support is monthly
support crossing at .9421.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

June gold closed higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the
past five days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1429.60 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If June renews this month’s decline, April’s
low crossing at 1321.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1429.60. Second resistance is May’s high
crossing at 1487.20. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1336.30. Second
support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.

July silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in
or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.371 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at 19.316 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 23.371. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24.835.
First support is Monday’s low crossing at 20.250. Second support is monthly
support crossing at 18.756.

July copper closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated
some of the rally off May’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off this
month’s low, April’s high crossing at 345.95 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.55 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 341.80. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 345.95. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.55. Second support is May’s low
crossing at 304.65.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

July coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage
for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing
at 11.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

July cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s decline, the 50%
retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.41 is July’s next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.50 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

July sugar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible. If July extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 16.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 17.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted.

July cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If July extends today’s decline, the 62% retracement
level of the November-March rally crossing at 80.56 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.83 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted.

——————————

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

July Corn closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.62.

July corn closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for
a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. If July renews the
rally off April’s low, the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.25 would confirm a downside
breakout of this month’s trading range while opening the door for a possible
test of April’s low crossing at 6.10. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 6.69. Second resistance is the April 1st gap crossing at 7.76.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.25. Second support is April’s
low crossing at 6.10.

July wheat closed up 14 3/4-cents at 7.03 1/4.

July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting
that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.04 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July
renews this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.04
3/4. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4. First support is
Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.74. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64
3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 1/4-cents at 7.54 1/2.

July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61
are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month’s
decline, April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
7.32 1/2. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2.

July Minneapolis wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 8.13 1/4.

July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
July renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the
July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 8.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First
resistance is April’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4. First support
is the reaction low crossing at 8.02. Second support is April’s low crossing at
7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July soybeans closed up 5 1/4-cents at 14.99 1/2.

July soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April’s
low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If July extends the
rally off April’s low, the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned decline
crossing at 15.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.16 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15.46 3/4. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing
at 15.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.45 3/4.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.16 1/2.

July soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $437.00.

July soybean meal posted a downside reversal on Thursday and closed lower.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s low, the 87% retracement level
of the September-January decline crossing at 456.10 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 415.60 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 451.40. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-January decline crossing at 456.10. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 423.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 415.60.

July soybean oil closed up 2 pts. at 49.66.

July soybean closed slightly higher on Thursday but the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 50.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.28 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.23.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 51.03. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 49.28. Second support is April’s low crossing
at 48.08.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

June hogs closed down $0.35 at $94.20.

June hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the rally off March’s low. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s low, the
62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 96.18 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.18
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 94.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement
level of the December-March decline crossing at 96.18. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 92.18. Second support the reaction low
crossing at 90.00.

June cattle closed down $0.87 at 119.12.

June cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 120.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June
renews this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 115.44 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
120.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.40. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 118.80. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 115.44.

August feeder cattle closed down $1.67 at $142.65.

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
146.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends this
year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 132.45 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.60. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 149.80. First support is Monday’s
low crossing at 142.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.45.

_____________________________________________________________________

T H A N K   Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________

Copyright 2012 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday 20/05/2013

M O N D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
_____________________________________________________________________

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, May 20, 2013
8:30 AM ET. April Chicago Fed National Activity Index

National Activity Index (previous -0.23)

3 Month Moving Average (previous -0.01)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off November’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2928.17 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at
3028.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2986.12. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2928.47.

The June S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends this year’s rally, upside targets will be hard to
project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 1614.40 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing
at 1665.50. Second resistance will be hard to project with the index trading
into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1641.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1614.40.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

June T-bonds was lower overnight as it extends last Friday’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at
142-24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 146-20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145-02. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-20. First support is the 62%
retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 143-31. Second support is
the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 142-24.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

June crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off
last Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally
off April’s low, April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target.
Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13 are needed to confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April’s high crossing at
98.06. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 99.52. First support is
last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 90.11.

June heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally
off last Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off April’s low, the 50% retracement level of the February-April decline
crossing at 297.99 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday’s low
crossing at 281.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 297.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
February-April-decline crossing at 304.15. First support is last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 281.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.97.

June unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally
off May’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June
extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the February-May
decline crossing at 296.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 282.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May
decline crossing at 296.45. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of
the February-May decline crossing at 302.99. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 282.84. Second support is May’s low crossing at 268.79.

June Henry natural gas was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 4.097. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 4.097 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted
and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews this
month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing
at 3.830 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 4.097. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 4.444.
First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing
at 3.830. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the
January-April-rally crossing at 3.684.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off
May’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June
extends the rally off May’s low, the July 2012 high crossing at 85.29 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.88
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 84.51. Second resistance is the July 2012 high
crossing at 85.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
83.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.88.

The June Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of May’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
June extends this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 127.51 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.23 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 130.23. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 131.98. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 127.98.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 127.51.

The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some
of last Friday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If June extends this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 1.5027
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5391 would confirm that the short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5391. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5564. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1.5154. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 1.5027.

The June Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. This spring’s head and shoulder’s
top projects a decline, which could test last July’s low crossing at .10148.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
month’s decline, last July’s low crossing at .10148 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10557 would confirm
that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .10449. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10557. First support was last Friday’s low crossing at .10245. Second support
is last July’s low crossing at .10148.

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly higher due to short covering overnight
as it consolidates some of last Friday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If June extends this month’s decline, March’s low crossing at 96.46 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.47 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is May’s high
crossing at 99.77. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 96.73. Second
support is March’s low crossing at 96.46.

The June Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this year’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If June extends this year’s decline, monthly support
crossing at .9421 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at .10005 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9863. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10005. First support is
last Friday’s low crossing at .9680. Second support is monthly support crossing
at .9421.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

June gold was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
June extends this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 1321.50 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1436.00 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1436.00. Second resistance is May’s high
crossing at 1487.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1336.30.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.

July silver was lower overnight renewing this year’s decline. Stochastics
and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at 19.316 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
23.443 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 23.443. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 24.835. First support is the overnight low crossing at 22.250.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at
19.316.

July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off
last Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews this
month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
342.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 325.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.90. Second resistance is
the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 342.84. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.64. Second support is
May’s low crossing at 304.25.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

July coffee closed lower on Friday as it extended this week’s decline. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If July extends this week’s decline, April’s low crossing
at 13.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 14.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

July cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If July extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of
the March-May rally crossing at 22.41 is July’s next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.54 are needed to confirm that a
low has been posted.

July sugar closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range
close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible. If July extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 16.29 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.39 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.

July cotton closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If July extends the rally off April’s low, the reaction high
crossing at 91.58 is the next upside target.
———————————————————————

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

July corn was higher overnight as it continues to extend this month’s
trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low
crossing at 6.25 would open the door for a test of April’s low crossing at
6.10. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the April 1st gap crossing at
6.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 1st gap crossing
at 6.76. Second resistance is the August-March downtrend line crossing near
6.91 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.25. Second support is
April’s low crossing at 6.10.

July wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it extends this month’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July
extends the decline off May’s high, April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.05
3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.05 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 7.27 3/4. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 6.80 1/4.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 7.37 1/4.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off
April’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s decline,
April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.61 would confirm that a low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61. Second
resistance is April’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. First support is last Friday’s
low crossing at 7.36 1/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2.

July Minneapolis wheat was fractionally higher overnight as it extends this
month’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.02 would
confirm a downside breakout of this month’s trading range while opening the
door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off April’s
low, the 38% retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4
is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
8.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-April
decline crossing at 8.53 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at
8.02. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off April’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for steady to higher opening when the
day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s low, March’s high
crossing at 14.63 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 13.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is March’s high crossing at 14.63 1/2. Second resistance is
the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 14.68
1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.15 1/4. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.96.

July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the
day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off
April’s low, March’s high crossing at 436.20 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 408.80 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing
at 428.70. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 436.20. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 413.50. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 408.80.

July soybean oil was lower overnight while extending this spring’s trading
range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 50.42 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. If July renews this year’s decline, the 50% retracement level of
the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.42. Second resistance is March’s
high crossing at 51.24. First support is April’s low crossing at 48.08. Second
support is the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

June hogs closed down $1.35 at $91.52.

June hogs posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s
low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 94.46
is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 90.00
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 93.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level
of the December-March decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the reaction
low crossing at 90.00. Second support is April’s low crossing at 88.22.

June cattle closed down $0.50 at 119.40.

June cattle closed lower on Friday renewing the decline off December’s high.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If June
extends this week’s decline, weekly support crossing at 115.44 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.28
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 120.39. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 121.28. First support is today’s low crossing at
118.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 115.44.

August feeder cattle closed down $1.75 at $143.37.

August Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Friday thereby renewing
the decline off January’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s decline, weekly support
crossing at 132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 147.55 would confirm that a low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.55. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 152.17. First support is today’s low crossing
at 143.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.45.

_____________________________________________________________________

T H A N K   Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________

 

Copyright 2012 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday 06/05/2013

M O N D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, May 6, 2013
10:00 AM ET. April Employment Trends Index

US Employment Trends Index (ETI) (previous 111.2)

US Employment Trends Index (ETI) MoM Change (previous -0.2%)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends last
Friday’s upside breakout of the up trending channel drawn off November’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 3084.00 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2836.98 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 2947.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing near 3084.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
2869.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2836.98.

The June S&P 500 was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as
it consolidates some of last Friday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year’s rally above April’s
high crossing at 1592.50, upside targets will be hard to project with the index
trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1574.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1614.20. Second resistance will be
hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1587.22. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1574.17.

___________________________________________________________________

 
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June T-bonds was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of last Friday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-tern. If June extends last
Friday’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at
146-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 148-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-28. Second resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-09. First support is last Friday’s
low crossing at 146-27. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the
March-May rally crossing at 146-04.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off April’s low, April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside
target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.86 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April’s high
crossing at 98.06. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 99.52.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.19. Second support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.86.

June heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April’s
low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the
38% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 291.92 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.28
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
38% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 291.92. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 298.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.28.
Second support is May’s low crossing at 275.97.

June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last
Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 283.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for
additional gains during the first half of May. If June renews the decline off
February’s high, the 75% retracement level of the June-February rally crossing
at 258.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 283.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
February-May decline crossing at 290.15. First support is the 50% retracement
level of the 2010-d013-rally crossing at 267.09. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2012-rally crossing at 253.46.

June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week’s decline, the 50%
retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 3.830 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.221 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 4.221. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at
4.457. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-rally
crossing at 397.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the
January-April-rally crossing at 3.830.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The June Dollar was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off
May’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
82.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June
renews the decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of the
February-April rally crossing at 80.84 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.45. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 83.32. First support is the 50% retracement level
of the February-April rally crossing at 81.38. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 80.84.

The June Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last
Friday’s low crossing at 130.35 would confirm that a top has been posted while
opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally
off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April decline
crossing at 133.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 132.43. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 133.58. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 130.35. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 129.59.

The June British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates
around the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at
1.5564. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June
extends the rally off March’s low, the 62% retracement level of the
January-March decline crossing at 1.5738 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5383 would confirm that the
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness
near-term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March
decline crossing at 1.5564.Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of
the January-March decline crossing at 1.5738. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5383. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 1.5192.

The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends last week’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at .10666 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends
the rally off the late-April low, April’s high crossing at .10869 is the next
upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at .10820.
Second resistance is April’s high crossing at .10869. First support was the
10-day moving average crossing at .10666. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at .10532.

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates
some of the rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level
of the January-March decline crossing at 99.57 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.18 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level
of the January-March decline crossing at 99.57. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 100.24. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.18. Second support is
April’s low crossing at 96.90.

The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If June renews this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at .9867 is the
next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .10383 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at .10383. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at .10809.
First support is April’s low crossing at .10008. Second support is monthly
support crossing at .9867.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

June gold was higher overnight and poised to renew the rally off April’s
low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at 1484.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains during the
first half of May. If April renews this spring’s decline, monthly support
crossing at 1285.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 1484.80. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1590.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1454.00. Second support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.

July silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past
seven days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 24.368 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If July renews this year’s decline, monthly support crossing
at 18.756 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 24.368. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
28.070. First support is April’s low crossing at 21.120. Second support is
monthly support crossing at 18.756.

July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday’s
rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 20-day moving average
crossing at 324.89. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have
turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If July extends last Friday’s rally, April’s high crossing at 347.15 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 319.14
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at 333.00. Second resistance is April’s high crossing
at 347.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 319.14.
Second support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 304.25. Third support is
weekly support crossing at 299.40.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

July coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends this week’s rally. The
high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week’s rally, April’s high
crossing at 14.45 is the next upside target. If July renews this year’s
decline, weekly support crossing at 13.00 is the next downside target.

July cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off
March’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the
rally off March’s low, the 62% retracement level of September-March decline
crossing at 24.63 is July’s next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 23.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

July sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a
steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling
that a low might be in or is near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 17.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July
extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally
crossing at 16.29 is the next downside target.

July cotton closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated
some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July
extends the rally off April’s low, the reaction high crossing at 88.50 is the
next upside target. If July renews the decline off March’s high, the 62%
retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at 80.57 is the next
downside target.
———————————————————————

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

July corn gapped down and was lower overnight as warmer and dryer weather
begins to move across the Midwest. Today’s weekly planting progress report
along with the extended weather forecast for the corn-belt hold the keys to
near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
July extends the rally off April’s low, the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.36
1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76. Second resistance is March’s high crossing
at 7.18 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.36 1/2.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.10.

July wheat gapped down and was lower overnight as it follows corn’s lead
lower. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 1/4 would signal that a short-term
top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April’s low, March’s high
crossing at 7.40 1/2 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off
November’s high, the November 2011 low crossing at 6.64 1/4 is the next
downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 7.40 1/2. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 1/4. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 6.64 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 7.78.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s low, the
38% retracement level of the December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.56 1/4
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 7.64 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.56 1/4.

July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
rally off April’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.04
3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the
rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-April decline
crossing at 8.53 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Tuesday’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 8.04 3/4. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July soybeans were lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top
is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.75 3/4
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the rally
off April’s low, the late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4. Second
resistance is March’s high crossing at 14.63 1/2. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 13.75 3/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at
13.36 1/2.

July soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 400.60 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the
rally off April’s low, March’s high crossing at 436.20 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 422.70. Second
resistance is March’s high crossing at 436.20. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 400.60. Second support is April’s low crossing at
388.00.

July soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of
the past two months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 50.42 are needed
to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this year’s decline, the
50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.42.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 51.24. First support is April’s
low crossing at 48.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

June hogs closed down $0.65 at $92.17.

June hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off
April’s low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing
at 94.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 90.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 93.10. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 94.42. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.70. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 90.75.

June cattle closed down $1.82 at 121.82.

June cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated
some of the rally off April’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.57 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off
April’s low, April’s high crossing at 124.50 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 124.00. Second resistance is April’s
high crossing at 124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
121.57. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.35.

August feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $147.50.

August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 148.77 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If
August renews the rally off April’s low, April’s high crossing at 154.40 is the
next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.17.
Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 154.40. First support is today’s
low crossing at 147.47. Second support is April’s low crossing at 144.75.

_____________________________________________________________________

T H A N K   Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________

 

Copyright 2012 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 03/05/2013

F R I D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 3, 2013
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report

Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +148K; previous +88K)

Unemployment Rate (expected 7.6%; previous 7.6%)

Average Hourly Earnings (previous 23.82)

Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (expected +0.2; previous +0.01)

Manufacturing Payrolls (previous -3K)

Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)

Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0.1)

Service Producing Payrolls (previous +72K)

Government Payrolls (previous -7K)

Federal Payrolls (previous -14K)

Non-Farm Payrolls (Bench Net Chg) Private Payroll (previous +95K)

10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

Total Orders (expected -3%; previous +3%)

Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +2.4%)

Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +0.3%)

Durable Goods 1st Est. (previous +5.7%)

Durable Goods Revised (previous +5.6%)

10:00 AM ET. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

Non-Mfg Composite Index (expected 54; previous 54.4)

Non-Manufacturing Business Index (previous 56.5)

Prices Index (previous 55.9)

Employment Index (previous 53.3)

New Orders Index (previous 54.6)

Monday, May 6, 2013
10:00 AM ET. April Employment Trends Index

US Employment Trends Index (ETI) (previous 111.2)

US Employment Trends Index (ETI) MoM Change (previous -0.2%)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight due to light
profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
aforementioned rally, channel resistance crossing near 2928.96 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2827.45 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s
high crossing at 2910.50. Second resistance is channel resistance crossing near
2928.96. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2852.40. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2827.45.

The June S&P 500 was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as
it extends this week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If June extends this year’s rally above April’s high
crossing at 1592.50, upside targets will be hard to project with the index
trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1570.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1595.40. Second resistance will be
hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1570.86. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 1531.00.

_____________________________________________________________________

 
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

June T-bonds was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates
some of the rally off March’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-tern. If June extends the rally off March’s low, November’s high crossing
at 149-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 147-32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 149-21. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 149-23. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 147-32. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145-26.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

June crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off
April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews
the rally off April’s low, the reaction high crossing at 94.96 is the next
upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
91.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 94.96. Second resistance is April’s high crossing
at 98.06. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 90.11. Second support is
April’s low crossing at 85.90.

June heating oil was higher overnight and is poised to renew the rally off
April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 288.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted
while opening the door for additional gains off April’s low. If June renews the
decline off February’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-February
rally crossing at 267.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 288.43. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 296.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at 275.86.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 272.55.

June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of
Wednesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the
reaction high crossing at 283.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while
opening the door for additional gains during the first half of May. If June
extends the decline off February’s high, the 75% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 258.09 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 283.00. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 294.58. First support is the 50% retracement level of
the 2010-d013-rally crossing at 267.09. Second support is the 62% retracement
level of the 2010-2012-rally crossing at 253.46.

June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline
and is poised to test the 38% retracement level of the January-April-rally
crossing at 397.80. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week’s
decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 3.830
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
4.224 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.224. Second resistance is April’s high
crossing at 4.457. First support is the 38% retracement level of the
January-April-rally crossing at 397.80. Second support is the 50% retracement
level of the January-April-rally crossing at 3.830.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that a low might
be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.43
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the
decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of the February-April rally
crossing at 80.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 82.43. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high
crossing at 83.32. First support is the 50% retracement level of the
February-April rally crossing at 81.38. Second support is the 62% retracement
level of the February-April rally crossing at 80.84.

The June Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting
that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low
crossing at 129.59 would confirm that a top has been posted. If June renews the
rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April decline
crossing at 133.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 132.43. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 133.58. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 130.40. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 129.59.

The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates around the
50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5564.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off March’s low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March decline
crossing at 1.5738 is the next upside target. Closes below the March-April
uptrend line crossing near 1.5297 would confirm that the short-term trend has
turned bearish and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing
at 1.5564.Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March
decline crossing at 1.5738. First support is the March-April uptrend line
crossing near 1.5297. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5192.

The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
week’s rally, April’s high crossing at .10869 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10673 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at .10820. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at .10869. First support
was the 10-day moving average crossing at .10673. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at .10532.

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
rally off April’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level
of the January-March decline crossing at 99.57 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.12 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level
of the January-March decline crossing at 99.57. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 100.24. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.12. Second support is
April’s low crossing at 96.90.

The June Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends the rally off last week’s low, the reaction high
crossing at .10383 is the next upside target. If June renews this year’s
decline, monthly support crossing at .9867 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10383. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at .10809. First support is April’s low crossing at
.10008. Second support is monthly support crossing at .9867.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

June gold was higher overnight and poised to renew the rally off April’s
low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at 1484.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains during the
first half of May. If April renews this spring’s decline, monthly support
crossing at 1285.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 1484.80. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1590.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1450.20. Second support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.

July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 24.527 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If July renews the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 18.756
is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 24.537. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 28.070.
First support is April’s low crossing at 21.120. Second support is monthly
support crossing at 18.756.

July copper was sharply higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
324.93 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the
decline off February’s high, weekly support crossing at 299.40 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
324.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 347.15. First
support is Thursday’s low crossing at 304.25. Second support is weekly support
crossing at 299.40.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

July coffee closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close set the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
July extends today’s rally, April’s high crossing at 14.45 is the next upside
target. If July extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 13.00
is the next downside target.

July cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off
March’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the
rally off March’s low, the 62% retracement level of September-March decline
crossing at 24.63 is July’s next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 23.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

July sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and
turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near-term. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at 17.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If July extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level
of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 16.29 is the next downside target.

July cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of Wednesday’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the
rally off April’s low, the reaction high crossing at 88.50 is the next upside
target. If July renews the decline off March’s high, the 62% retracement level
of the November-March rally crossing at 80.57 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally,
the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 6.35 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the April 1st gap crossing at 6.76. Second
resistance is March’s high crossing at 7.18 3/4. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 6.35 1/2. Second support is April’s low crossing at
6.10.

July wheat was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off
April’s low, March’s high crossing at 7.40 1/2 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.10 1/4 would signal that a
short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off November’s high,
the November 2011 low crossing at 6.64 1/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4. Second resistance is March’s
high crossing at 7.40 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.10 1/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 7.86.

July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
becoming overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s
low, the 38% retracement level of the December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the December-April’s low crossing at 8.03 1/4. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 7.61 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.54.

July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
April’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought,
diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 38%
retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.04 1/2
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 8.04 1/2. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week’s
losses. The high-range close sets the stage for steady to higher opening when
the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 13.74 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the late-March high
crossing at 14.59 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the
late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4. Second resistance is March’s high
crossing at 14.63 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
13.74. Second support is April’s low crossing at 13.36 1/2.

July soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have
turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 400.00 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April’s low,
March’s high crossing at 436.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 422.70. Second resistance is March’s high crossing
at 436.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 400.00.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 388.00.

July soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of
the past two months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July
renews this year’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally
crossing at 46.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 50.42 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.42. Second resistance is March’s
high crossing at 51.24. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 48.08.
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at
46.56.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

June hogs closed down $0.12 at $92.82.

June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off April’s low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline
crossing at 94.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 90.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 93.10. Second resistance is the
50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 94.42. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.50. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 90.63.

June cattle closed up $1.17 at 123.65.

June cattle gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally
off April’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April’s low, April’s high
crossing at 124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 121.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 124.00. Second resistance is
April’s high crossing at 124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 121.56. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.35.

August feeder cattle closed up $.92 at $149.65.

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 148.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If August renews the rally off April’s low, April’s high crossing at 154.40 is
the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
152.17. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 154.40. First support is
Wednesday’s low crossing at 148.70. Second support is April’s low crossing at
144.75.

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