ARN Daily Basic: Daily Analysts’ Updates for 3/31/2014

Analysts’ Upgrades

  • Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (NYSE:AMG) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $190.98. Tweet This.
  • Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (NYSE:AMG) was upgraded by analysts at Citic Securities Co., Ltd from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $225.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $190.00. 17.8% upside from the previous close of $190.98. Tweet This.
  • BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) was upgraded by analysts at Needham & Company LLC from an “underperform” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $8.41. Tweet This.
  • Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) was upgraded by analysts at KeyCorp from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock. 21.0% upside from the previous close of $37.20. Tweet This.
  • Builders FirstSource Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDR) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $12.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $5.00. 49.3% upside from the previous close of $8.04. Tweet This.
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW) was upgraded by analysts at FBR Capital Markets from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. They now have a $52.00 price target on the stock. 2.2% upside from the previous close of $50.89. Tweet This.
  • Clinigen Group PLC (LON:CLIN) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 650 ($10.82) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 620 ($10.32). Tweet This.
  • Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) was upgraded by analysts at Rafferty Capital Markets from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $31.73. Tweet This.
  • Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James from an “outperform” rating to a “strong-buy” rating. They now have a $23.00 price target on the stock. 32.5% upside from the previous close of $17.36. Tweet This.
  • Delhaize Group (NYSE:DEG) was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “neutral” rating to an “overweight” rating. Previous closing price of $70.66. Tweet This.
  • Darty PLC (LON:DRTY) was upgraded by analysts at N+1 Singer to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 140 ($2.33) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Darty PLC (LON:DRTY) was upgraded by analysts at Nplus1 Brewin to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 140 ($2.33) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • DTE Energy Co (NYSE:DTE) was upgraded by analysts at KeyCorp from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $83.00 price target on the stock. 13.4% upside from the previous close of $73.19. Tweet This.
  • Echo Global Logistics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ECHO) was upgraded by analysts at FBR Capital Markets from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $20.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $17.00. 16.5% upside from the previous close of $17.17. Tweet This.
  • Edison International (NYSE:EIX) was upgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $60.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $57.00. 8.5% upside from the previous close of $55.29. Tweet This.
  • Eastman Chemical Co. (NYSE:EMN) was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. to a “market weight” rating. Previous closing price of $85.60. Tweet This.
  • easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 2,100 ($34.94) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 1,900 ($31.61). Tweet This.
  • Glacier Media (TSE:GVC) was upgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a C$1.80 price target on the stock. 33.3% upside from the previous close of $1.35. Tweet This.
  • Heartland Express Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) was upgraded by analysts at Longbow Research from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $26.00 price target on the stock. 20.0% upside from the previous close of $21.67. Tweet This.
  • Ibi Group Inc. (TSE:IBG) was upgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a C$1.50 price target on the stock, up previously from C$0.75. 18.1% upside from the previous close of $1.27. Tweet This.
  • ING Groep (NYSE:ING) was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $43.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $38.00. 213.4% upside from the previous close of $13.72. Tweet This.
  • Knight Transportation (NYSE:KNX) was upgraded by analysts at Longbow Research from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $26.00 price target on the stock. 19.3% upside from the previous close of $21.80. Tweet This.
  • Medley Capital Corp. (NYSE:MCC) was upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $15.50 price target on the stock, up previously from $14.50. 13.8% upside from the previous close of $13.62. Tweet This.
  • The Men’s Wearhouse, Inc. (NYSE:MW) was upgraded by analysts at Mizuho from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $60.00 price target on the stock. 24.0% upside from the previous close of $48.40. Tweet This.
  • Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ:PNRA) was upgraded by analysts at Wedbush from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $215.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $185.00. 23.6% upside from the previous close of $174.00. Tweet This.
  • Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE:SAN) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $8.87. Tweet This.
  • SINA Corp (NASDAQ:SINA) was upgraded by analysts at Pacific Crest from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $88.00 price target on the stock. 49.3% upside from the previous close of $58.95. Tweet This.
  • SINA Corp (NASDAQ:SINA) was upgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $88.00 price target on the stock. 49.3% upside from the previous close of $58.95. Tweet This.
  • Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE:TRV) was upgraded by analysts at Guggenheim from a “sell” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $88.00 price target on the stock. 4.8% upside from the previous close of $83.99. Tweet This.
  • Vipshop Holdings Ltd – (NASDAQ:VIPS) was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $185.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $138.00. 34.1% upside from the previous close of $138.00. Tweet This.
  • ING US Inc (NYSE:VOYA) was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $43.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $38.00. 19.9% upside from the previous close of $35.86. Tweet This.
  • Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLB) was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. from an “underweight” rating to a “market weight” rating. Previous closing price of $46.31. Tweet This.
  • The ExOne Company (NASDAQ:XONE) was upgraded by analysts at BB&T Corp. from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $50.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 41.9% upside from the previous close of $35.24. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ upgrades at AnalystRatings.net

Analysts’ Downgrades

  • BlackBerry Ltd (TSE:BB) was downgraded by analysts at Evercore Partners from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating. They now have a C$6.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$7.00. 35.6% downside from the previous close of $9.31. Tweet This.
  • BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) was downgraded by analysts at Evercore Partners from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating. They now have a $6.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $7.00. 28.7% downside from the previous close of $8.41. Tweet This.
  • BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $6.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $7.00. 28.7% downside from the previous close of $8.41. Tweet This.
  • CNOOC (NYSE:CEO) was downgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $153.11. Tweet This.
  • Mack-Cali Realty Corp. (NYSE:CLI) was downgraded by analysts at Barclays from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating. They now have a $19.00 price target on the stock. 9.7% downside from the previous close of $21.04. Tweet This.
  • Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) was downgraded by analysts at KLR Group from a “buy” rating to an “accumulate” rating. They now have a $149.00 price target on the stock. 18.6% upside from the previous close of $125.67. Tweet This.
  • Republic First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FRBK) was downgraded by analysts at Sandler O’Neill from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating. They now have a $3.25 price target on the stock. 16.9% downside from the previous close of $3.91. Tweet This.
  • Filtronic Plc (LON:FTC) was downgraded by analysts at Panmure Gordon to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 54 ($0.90) price target on the stock, down previously from GBX 84 ($1.40). Tweet This.
  • Medley Capital Corp. (NYSE:MCC) was downgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $13.62. Tweet This.
  • MannKind Co. (NASDAQ:MNKD) was downgraded by analysts at Piper Jaffray from a “neutral” rating to an “underweight” rating. They now have a $1.50 price target on the stock, down previously from $5.00. 68.9% downside from the previous close of $4.83. Tweet This.
  • Magnachip Semiconductor Corp (NYSE:MX) was downgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a “neutral” rating to a “sell” rating. They now have a $12.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $17.00. 17.4% downside from the previous close of $14.52. Tweet This.
  • PGT Inc. (NASDAQ:PGTI) was downgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $13.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $9.00. 7.6% upside from the previous close of $12.08. Tweet This.
  • Prana Biotechnology (NASDAQ:PRAN) was downgraded by analysts at HC Wainwright from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $5.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $33.00. 49.3% downside from the previous close of $9.86. Tweet This.
  • RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:RNR) was downgraded by analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $91.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $98.00. 6.2% downside from the previous close of $97.02. Tweet This.
  • RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:RNR) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $91.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $98.00. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 6.2% downside from the previous close of $97.02. Tweet This.
  • Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) was downgraded by analysts at Miller Tabak from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $98.80. Tweet This.
  • Shanks Group (LON:SKS) was downgraded by analysts at Investec to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 120 ($2.00) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • NASDAQ (NASDAQ:THESTREET) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $6.00 price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ downgrades at Analyst Ratings.net

Analysts’ New Coverage

  • American Eagle Energy Corp (NASDAQ:AMZG) is now covered by analysts at Canaccord Genuity. They set a “buy” rating and a $10.00 price target on the stock. 42.9% upside from the previous close of $7.00. Tweet This.
  • American Eagle Energy Corp (NYSEMKT:AMZG) is now covered by analysts at Canaccord Genuity. They set a “buy” rating and a $10.00 price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Apache Co. (NYSE:APA) is now covered by analysts at KLR Group. They set a “buy” rating and a $119.00 price target on the stock. 43.3% upside from the previous close of $83.02. Tweet This.
  • Build-A-Bear Workshop, (NYSE:BBW) is now covered by analysts at Craig Hallum. They set a “buy” rating and a $15.00 price target on the stock. 63.0% upside from the previous close of $9.20. Tweet This.
  • Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) is now covered by analysts at Argus. They set a “buy” rating and a $162.00 price target on the stock. 11.0% upside from the previous close of $146.00. Tweet This.
  • Dresser-Rand Group Inc. (NYSE:DRC) is now covered by analysts at Gabelli. They set a “buy” rating and a $70.00 price target on the stock. 23.7% upside from the previous close of $56.57. Tweet This.
  • FBR & Co. (NASDAQ:FBRC) is now covered by analysts at Barrington Research. They set an “outperform” rating and a $32.00 price target on the stock. 30.8% upside from the previous close of $24.47. Tweet This.
  • HCA Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HCA) is now covered by analysts at Monness Crespi & Hardt. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $51.14. Tweet This.
  • KapStone Paper & Packaging Corp. (NYSE:KS) is now covered by analysts at Barclays. They set an “overweight” rating and a $35.00 price target on the stock. 29.7% upside from the previous close of $26.98. Tweet This.
  • LifePoint Hospitals, Inc. (NASDAQ:LPNT) is now covered by analysts at Monness Crespi & Hardt. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $53.90. Tweet This.
  • MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is now covered by analysts at Citigroup Inc.. They set a “sell” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $96.28. Tweet This.
  • Myriad Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ:MYGN) is now covered by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.. They set an “underweight” rating and a $25.00 price target on the stock. 23.9% downside from the previous close of $32.87. Tweet This.
  • Targa Resources Partners LP (NASDAQ:NGLS) is now covered by analysts at UBS AG. They set a “buy” rating and a $59.00 price target on the stock. 6.2% upside from the previous close of $55.56. Tweet This.
  • Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) is now covered by analysts at UBS AG. They set a “buy” rating and a $59.00 price target on the stock. 6.2% upside from the previous close of $55.56. Tweet This.
  • ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is now covered by analysts at UBS AG. They set a “neutral” rating and a $61.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 4.3% upside from the previous close of $58.49. Tweet This.
  • Oneok Partners LP (NYSE:OKS) is now covered by analysts at UBS AG. They set a “neutral” rating and a $54.00 price target on the stock. 0.7% upside from the previous close of $53.62. Tweet This.
  • Petards Group plc (LON:PEG) is now covered by analysts at WH Ireland. They set a “buy” rating and a GBX 18 ($0.30) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • ScanSource Inc. (NASDAQ:SCSC) is now covered by analysts at Sidoti. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $38.09. Tweet This.
  • Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC) is now covered by analysts at Monness Crespi & Hardt. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $41.86. Tweet This.
  • TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp (NASDAQ:TPVG) is now covered by analysts at Credit Suisse. They set a “neutral” rating and a $17.00 price target on the stock. 5.7% upside from the previous close of $16.09. Tweet This.
  • TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp (NASDAQ:TPVG) is now covered by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co.. They set an “outperform” rating and a $19.00 price target on the stock. 18.1% upside from the previous close of $16.09. Tweet This.
  • Targa Resources Corp (NASDAQ:TRGP) is now covered by analysts at UBS AG. They set a “neutral” rating and a $100.00 price target on the stock. 2.6% upside from the previous close of $97.46. Tweet This.
  • Universal Health Services Inc. (NYSE:UHS) is now covered by analysts at Monness Crespi & Hardt. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $79.70. Tweet This.
  • William Lyon Homes (NYSE:WLH) is now covered by analysts at Credit Suisse. They set a “neutral” rating and a $30.00 price target on the stock. 9.1% upside from the previous close of $27.51. Tweet This.
  • Yelp Inc (NASDAQ:YELP) is now covered by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co.. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. Previous closing price of $76.44. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ new coverage at Analyst Ratings.net

Rotate On This! – 03/31/2014

Friday was a solid day for large caps according to the S&P 500, while small caps didn’t fare so well. That was a pretty consistent theme this past week.

Again, these disparate results are the classic signs of a rotation period. Gladly these confusing times usually make way for the next leg higher.

This week the economic calendar heats up as it always does the first week of the month. Here is the full slate with key reports in bold.

Tuesday: ISM Mfg , PMI Mfg, Construction Spending

Wednesday: ADP Employment

Thursday: Jobless Claims, ISM Services , PMI Services

Friday: March Employment Situation

Good news from these announcements should get stocks on the upswing. However, we likely won’t mount a serious attack on 1900 until investors get a solid read of Q1 earnings reports in mid to late April. Given our strength in earnings coverage, we will give you the early read on that and whether it is bullish or bearish for stocks.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister ( aka Reity…pronounced “Righty” )

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday 31/03/2014

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Monday, March 31, 2014

Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future has advanced 53 points to 16293. The US Dollar Index declined 0.190 points to 80.027. Gold is down 2.975 dollars to 1294.065. Silver has gained 0.0855 dollars to 19.9105. The Dow Industrials moved up 58.83 points, at 16323.06, while the S&P 500 rose 8.58 points, last seen at 1857.62. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 2.57 points to 4153.80. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
Practical Applications of Candlestick Charts
Sunday Mar 30th

POLL: Do You Think Putin Is Going To Invade The Ukraine?
Friday Mar 28th

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery
Friday Mar 28th

Key Events for Monday

8:30 AM ET. Feb Personal Income & Outlays

Personal Income (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

Personal Spending (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0.1%)

PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.2%)

PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)

PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.1%)

9:55 AM ET. Mar Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

Sentiment Index End month (expected 80.5; previous 81.6)

Expectations Index End Month (previous 72.7)

12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.2%)

5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 95.4)

10:00 AM ET. Feb Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

3:00 PM ET. Mar Agricultural Prices

Farm Prices, M/M (previous +7.1%)


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 80.027 -0.190 -0.24%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 21.485 +0.005 +0.02%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.105350 -0.000005 -0.00%
Euro/US Dollar 1.379000 +0.003880 +0.28%
JAPANESE YEN Jun 2014 0.009693 -0.000038 -0.39%
SWISS FRANC Jun 2014 1.1326 +0.0043 +0.38%

CURRENCIES

The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s low, the reaction high crossing at 80.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.06 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.06. Second support is March’s low crossing at 79.37.

The June Euro was lower overnight extrending the decline off March’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 136.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.26. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 139.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137.02. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 136.44.

The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally and is trading above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6600 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February’s high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.6337. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6600. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 1.6773. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.6449. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.6337.

The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at .11226 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11366 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11366 Second resistance is March’s high crossing at .11503. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at .11226. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at .11160.

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 91.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.59 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 91.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 91.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.59. Second support is March’s low crossing at 88.45.

The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March’s high, March’s low crossing at .9641 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March’s low, February’s high crossing at .9930 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9889. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .9930. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at .9742. Second support is March’s low crossing at .9641.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL May 2014 101.27 -0.40 -0.39%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL May 2014 2.9361 -0.0117 -0.40%
NATURAL GAS May 2014 4.443 -0.042 -0.94%
RBOB GASOLINE May 2014 2.9199 -0.0168 -0.57%
POWERSHARES DWA ENERGY MOMENT 57.618 +0.608 +1.05%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 58.35 +0.08 +0.13%

ENERGIES

May Nymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March’s high crossing at 104.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 101.88. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 104.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.62. Second support is March’s low crossing at 97.00.

May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday’s close above the 20-day moving average confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 297.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.39 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 297.70. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 306.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.39. Second support is March’s low crossing at 287.40. Third support is January’s low crossing at 286.53.

May unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March’s low, the reaction high crossing at 296.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 289.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 296.57. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 305.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 289.73. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at 283.07.

May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off Monday’s low, the reaction high crossing at 4.669 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.415 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.669. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.893. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 4.195. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 4.029.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA May 2014 2986 +3 +0.10%
COFFEE May 2014 179.50 -1.10 -0.61%
ORANGE JUICE-A May 2014 150.50 +0.70 +0.46%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 59.3901 -0.1199 -0.20%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 52.0780 +0.8581 +1.60%

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.95 would confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 15.91 is the next downside target.

May cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 29.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this winter’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.92 is the next upside target.

May sugar closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.56 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week’s rally, March’s high crossing at 18.47 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off this month’s high, the reaction low crossing at 15.57 is the next downside target.

May cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 89.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off the late-January low, monthly resistance crossing at 93.93 is the next upside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN May 2014 489.25 -2.75 -0.56%
OATS May 2014 400.00 -2.00 -0.50%
WHEAT May 2014 689.00 -6.50 -0.94%
TEUCRIUM CORN 33.655 -0.325 -0.97%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 49.61 -0.52 -1.05%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 6.548 -0.042 -0.65%
SOYBEANS May 2014 1437.25 +0.75 +0.05%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2014 1187.625 -2.875 -0.24%
SOYBEAN MEAL May 2014 468.3 -0.1 -0.02%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 23.7201 -0.3499 -1.42%

GRAINS

May corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally while extending March’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 5.14 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March’s high crossing at 5.02 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 5.14 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.76. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.63 1/2.

May wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.78 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 7.48 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 7.23 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 7.48 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.78 1/2.

May Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 7.83 3/4.

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 8.13 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.44 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 7.88. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 8.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.44 1/2.

May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.26 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 7.79 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 7.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 8.23 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.49 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.26 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

May soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March’s low, March’s high crossing at 14.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 14.56 1/2. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 14.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 13.79. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 13.54.

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 482.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 454.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 475.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 482.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 454.60. Second support is March’s low crossing at 431.00.

May soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 40.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.33. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 40.18. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 39.13.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 16323.06 +58.83 +0.36%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 4153.80 +2.57 +0.06%
S&P 500 CASH 1857.62 +8.58 +0.46%
SPDR S&P 500 185.43 +0.85 +0.46%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 16.10 -0.17 -1.06%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 114.34 -0.06 -0.05%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March’s high, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 3488.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3666.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3666.80. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 3712.75. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 3531.69. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 3488.39.

The June S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 1819.76 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1854.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1854.82. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 1877.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 1819.76. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 1801.81.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Jun 2014 133.00000 -0.53125 -0.40%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.704 -0.006 -0.01%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Jun 2014 118.757813 -0.132813 -0.11%
ULTRA T-BONDS Jun 2014 144.15625 -0.68750 -0.47%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.81 -0.01 -0.04%

INTEREST RATES

June T-bonds were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 137-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 134-16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 137-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 131-24.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE May 2014 179.500 -0.375 -0.21%
LEAN HOGS Jun 2014 129.575 +0.275 +0.21%
LIVE CATTLE Jun 2014 138.350 -0.175 -0.13%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 32.1303 -0.3297 -1.03%

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed up $3.00 at $125.47.

April hog gapped up and closed limit up on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 126.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 120.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.22.

April cattle closed up $0.67 at 146.47.

April cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter’s rally, upside targets will be hard to project if it trades into uncharted territory. Closes below Tuesday’s low crossing at 143.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 146.92. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 143.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142.70.

April feeder cattle closed up $0.87 at $179.50.

April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 179.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.72. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 171.50.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Jun 2014 1296.2 +1.9 +0.15%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 124.58 -0.01 -0.01%
SILVER May 2014 19.960 +0.170 +0.86%
PALLADIUM Jun 2014 779.80 +6.10 +0.79%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 24.3000 -1.0600 -4.34%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 41.6986 -0.0314 -0.08%

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1287.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.30 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.30. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 1392.60. First support is the the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1287.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1262.50.

May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends the decline off February’s high, the 87% retracement level of the January-February-rally crossing at 19.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.759 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.300. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.759. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-February-rally crossing at 19.647. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-February-rally crossing at 19.233.

May copper was higher overnight and is trading above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December’s high, weekly support crossing at 272.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.08. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 308.20. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 287.70. Second support is weekly support crossing at 272.00.


 

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3. ACI ARCH COAL 4.795 +0.045 +0.94% 12,531,702 +90    Entry Signal
4. XOM EXXON MOBIL 97.71 +1.47 +1.50% 11,331,205 +100    Entry Signal
5. XRX XEROX 11.05 +0.14 +1.27% 10,880,233 +90    Entry Signal
6. TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR 19.64 +0.22 +1.12% 10,654,015 +90    Entry Signal
7. HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 32.035 +0.105 +0.33% 10,640,250 +90    Entry Signal
8. BBD BANK BRADESCO 13.57 +0.07 +0.52% 10,604,357 +90    Entry Signal
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1. ED.U14 EURODOLLAR Sep 2014 99.730 0.000 0.00% 48,836 +100    Entry Signal
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3. W.N14 WHEAT Jul 2014 699.25 -15.25 -2.18% 28,352 +100    Entry Signal
4. 6A.M14.E AUSTRALIAN $ Jun 2014 0.9179 -0.0025 -0.27% 26,841 +100    Entry Signal
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9. SB.K16.E SUGAR #11-WORLD May 2016 18.90 -0.05 -0.26% 58 +100    Entry Signal
10. AJY.M14.E AUSTRALIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Jun 2014 94.75 +0.17 +0.18% 50 +100    Entry Signal

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 31/03/2014

MERCATO USA

Borsa Usa: indici chiudono in rialzo, acquisti su Microsoft. Brilla CBS Outdoor al debutto

A New York i principali indici hanno chiuso l’ultima seduta della settimana in rialzo. Il Dow Jones ha guadagnato lo 0,36%, l’S&P500 lo 0,46% e il Nasdaq Composite lo 0,11%.

Gli esperti dell’Universita’ del Michigan e di Reuters hanno rivisto in leggero rialzo la stima preliminare dell’indice sulla fiducia dei consumatori statunitensi del mese di marzo a 80 punti da 79,9 della lettura precedente. Le aspettative degli analisti erano fissate su un indice pari a 80,5 punti.
I redditi personali sono cresciuti dello 0,3% anche nel mese di febbraio. Erano cresciuti a gennaio dello 0,3%. Le attese degli economisti erano tuttavia fissate su un incremento dello 0,2%.

La spesa per consumi personali e’ risultata pari a +0,3% nel mese di febbraio, in linea con le attese e dopo una lettura pari al +0,2% nel mese di gennaio.
Sul fronte societario Blackberry -7,07%. Il produttore di smartphone ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con una perdita di 423 milioni di dollari contro l’utile di 98 milioni di un anno prima. I ricavi sono diminuiti del 64% a 976 milioni mentre l’Eps adjusted è stato pari a -0,08 dollari. Nel periodo l’azienda canadese ha venduto 3,4 milioni di smartphone. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di -0,56 dollari su ricavi per 1,17 miliardi.
CBS Outdoor +5,36% al debutto. Il titolo della divisione pubblicitaria del colosso media CBS Corporation è stato collocato a 28 dollari per azione.
Ford Motor +1,31%. Il gruppo automobilistico ha annunciato che investirà 500 milioni di dollari per modernizzare un impianto produttivo in Ohio (Stati Uniti).

Red Hat -6,95%. Il distributore del sistema Linux ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 45 milioni di dollari, in calo rispetto ai 52 milioni dello stesso periodo di un anno prima. I ricavi sono aumentati a 400 milioni da 347,9 milioni. L’Eps adjusted si è attestato a 0,39 dollari. Gli analisti avevano previsto un Eps di 0,37 dollari su ricavi per 398,8 milioni. Le previsioni per il trimestre in corso hanno deluso le attese.
Microsoft +2,39%. Il Ceo Satya Nadella ha lanciato il pacchetto Office per l’iPad.
Zynga -1,12%. Steven Cohen, fondatore dell’hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, ha incrementato la quota nel produttore di giochi per social network al 5,3% del capitale.

Wal-Mart -0,17%. Il colosso della distribuzione ha avviato un’azione legale contro il gruppo delle carte di credito Visa (-1,71%). Quest’ultima è accusata di aver gonfiato le commissioni sugli acquisti fatti con con carte di credito. Secondo il Wall Street Journal, Wal-Mart chiede danni per 5 miliardi di dollari.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Borsa di Tokyo positiva in attesa degli stimoli in Cina

Nikkei positivo in avvio di ottava. L’indice giapponese ha chiuso le contrattazioni a quota 14827,83, in progresso dello 0,90%, avvicinandosi alla resistenza dei 15000 punti. Nonostante il risultato positivo, la reazione non basta a cancellare la debolezza dimostrata di recente e solo oltre questa soglia critica sarebbe lecito ipotizzare il ritorno a 16000 punti ed un allungo verso 16320, record di fine dicembre 2013. La mancata rottura di area 15000, seguita dal cedimento del supporto offerto in area 14200 dai minimi di marzo, metterebbe in seria discussione le prospettive di ripresa dell’indice. Se poi i prezzi dovessero scendere anche al di sotto del supporto critico dei 14000 punti, dove si colloca il 61,8% di ritracciamento del rialzo partito lo scorso giugno, verrebbero create le premesse per un affondo fino a 13613, per la copertura del gap rialzista del 3 settembre, preludendo ad un approfondimento fino ai minimi di giugno 2013 a 12415.

Positivo anche il Topix che ha terminato la seduta a 1202,89 punti (+1,38%). Il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria giapponese ha comunicato questa mattina la lettura preliminare sulla Produzione Industriale di febbraio. Tale rilevazione si e’ attestata al -2,3% m/m deludendo le stime degli addetti ai lavori fissate su una crescita pari allo 0,3%. A trainare al rialzo il listino giapponese, la speranza che la Cina possa offrire presto misure di stimolo all’economia favorendo le esportazioni. I titoli esportatori beneficiano quindi della debolezza dello yen e registrano performance positive: Nissan Motor Co sale del 2,22%, Honda Motor Co del 2,25%, Mazda Motor Corp del 4,33% e Fuji Heavy Industries del 3,37% . Inoltre, secondo il quotidiano Nikkei, Mitsubishi Motors (+2,18%) acquisterà un impianto automobilistico da Ford Motor nelle Filippine per circa 10 a 15 miliardi di yen (97 milioni dollari ). Moderato rialzo per le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Seoul guadagna lo 0,23%, a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng sale dello 0,13%. Ancora debole la borsa di Shanghai con l’indice che cede lo 0,16%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI

Borse europee positive, bene Novartis e Ing

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto la prima seduta dell’ottava in rialzo. Il Dax30 di Francoforte guadagna lo 0,33%, il Cac40 di Parigi lo 0,32%, il Ftse100 di Londra lo 0,54% e l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,3%.

Novartis +3%. Il trattamento contro l’insufficienza cardiaca cronica precoce sviluppato dal gruppo farmaceutico svizzero ha ottenuto risultati positivi in alcuni test sui pazienti.

Ing +2,5%. Il colosso bancario olandese ha annunciato che tornerà a versare un dividendo nel 2015.
Peugeot +0,3%. Carlos Tavares è stato nominato ufficialmente Ceo del costruttore francese di auto al posto di Philippe Varin.
Banco Santander +0,2%. Deutsche Bank ha alzato il rating sul titolo del gruppo bancario spagnolo a hold da sell.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Borsa italiana in verde, Ftse Mib +0,26%. In evidenza Banco Popolare, MPS e Maire Tecnimont
Il Ftse Mib segna +0,26%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,30%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,57%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,39%.
Borse europee in territorio positivo. Venerdì scorso a Wall Street l’S&P 500 ha chiuso a +0,46%, il Nasdaq Composite a +0,11% e il Dow Jones Industrial a +0,36%. I future sui principali indici USA al momento sono in rialzo dello 0,3%. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha terminato a +0,90%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng segna +0,29%.
Ottimo inizio di settimana per i titoli del settore bancario. Brilla Banco Popolare (+5,1%) nel primo giorno dell’aumento di capitale da €1,5mld.

Secondo indiscrezioni di stampa i fondi USA Blackrock e Och-Ziff avrebbero prenotato presso il consorzio di garanzia circa il 20% delle nuove azioni in offerta. Si parla anche di 3 soggetti ammessi alla data room per Release: Lone Star, Jwc e Fortress-Prelios.
In ottima forma Banca MPS (+3,8%) favorita dalla discesa dello spread Btp-Bund sui minimi da giugno 2011. Si segnala anche che La Commissione Europea ha prescritto la nomina di un amministratore indipendente chiamato a monitorare il rispetto degli impegni presi per ottenere l’ok al piano di ristrutturazione.

Positiva Moncler (+0,9%) in scia ai dati 2013: l’esercizio si è chiuso con ricavi pari a €580,6mln (+19% a/a) e un utile netto pari a €76,1mln, in forte progresso rispetto ai €28,8mln del 2012.
Maire Tecnimont (+5,7% a 2,69 euro) in netto rialzo: Mediobanca ha migliorato il giudizio sul titolo da neutral a “outperform” (farà meglio del mercato/settore) e alzato il target price da 1,76 e 3,76.


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO

Con il superamento del picco di metà marzo a 4,20 euro, Snam ha inviato un segnale positivo che lascia ben sperare in un allungo verso area 4,30, top del 2011 e lato alto del canale che sale dai minimi dello scorso giugno. Nella direzione opposta sarebbero solo discese sotto la base del citato canale, in area 4,00, ad insinuare dei dubbi sulle possibilità di realizzazione di tali attese, spianando la strada a cali verso 3,82, in corrispondenza del 38,2% di ritracciamento del rialzo partito lo scorso giugno. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire sui livelli attuali per il test di 4,30, stop sotto 4,15 euro. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere le posizioni aperte sopra 4,00 euro con obiettivi a 4,30 euro.

Tenaris ha completato il 21 marzo salendo sopra il top del 7 marzo a 15,50, ora supporto in caso di flessioni, il doppio minimo disegnatosi in area 14,80 da inizio marzo. La figura proietta in base alla sua ampiezza un target a 16,20, resistenza raggiungibile oltre 15,90, dove attualmente transita la media mobile a 50 giorni. Sopra 16,20 il target si porrebbe a 16,50, media a 200 giorni, posta centralmente rispetto all’ampio gap ribassista del 19 febbraio, lasciato tra 16,30 e 17,02. Solo sotto 15,50 rischio di nuovo test del supporto critico di 14,80 dove si colloca non solo il recente doppio minimo ma anche i minimi di febbraio, aprile e giugno 2013. Per chi volesse comprare il titolo attendere la rottura di 15,90, confermata in chiusura di seduta, per intervenire con target a 16,50, stop loss sotto 15,50. Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere subito sotto 15,50 lo stop per le posizioni in essere, incrementare sopra 16,20 per 16,50.

Scenario grafico positivo per Unicredit che oscilla poco al di sotto dei recenti massimi allineati a 6,6350 euro in attesa dello spunto capace di riattivare la tendenza ascendente di fondo. Una vittoria confermata in chiusura di seduta oltre questo ultimo livello anticiperebbe infatti un allungo verso il top dell’ottobre 2011 a 7,01 circa, limite oltre il quale si aprirebbero ulteriori spazi di ascesa verso 7,80 e 8,60. Sotto 6,30 probabile un test dell’ex resistenza di area 6,15, riferimento determinante per scongiurare approfondimenti  sui 5,30/5,40. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 6,6350 per 7,01, stop sotto 6,30. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 7,01 per 7,80 e 8,60, ridurre sotto 6,15 e uscire alla violazione di 5,30.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Lunedì 31 marzo 2014
USA Orario italiano apertura mercati azionari torna alle 15:30;
01:50 GIA Produzione industriale (prelim.) feb;
08:00 GER Vendite al dettaglio feb;
08:45 FRA PIL t/t (finale) T4;
10:30 GB Credito al consumo feb;
11:00 EUR Inflazione (flash) mar;
11:00 ITA Inflazione (prelim.) mar;
15:45 USA Indice PMI (Chicago) mar;
15:55 USA Intervento Yellen (Fed).


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HEADLINES

Fluxys e Snam firmano memorandum d’intesa per unire i rispettivi asset internazionali in Europa
Fluxys e Snam hanno concordato di valutare insieme la creazione di una società a controllo congiunto per la gestione integrata dei rispettivi asset internazionali detenuti in Europa. Il memorandum d’intesa firmato dalle Società sviluppa ulteriormente l’alleanza strategica siglata nel 2012 con l’obiettivo di perseguire opportunità di crescita attraverso progetti volti a migliorare la flessibilità e la sicurezza degli approvvigionamenti nelle infrastrutture del gas in Europa. . Secondo i termini del memorandum, la joint company attualmente allo studio combinerebbe, in particolare, gli asset internazionali di Fluxys e Snam situati nei corridoi energetici europei sud-nord ed est-ovest, ad esclusione dei rispettivi mercati nazionali delle Società (Belgio e Italia), con l’obiettivo di svolgere un ruolo chiave come facilitatore di una maggiore flessibilità e liquidità del mercato attraverso una migliore interconnessione delle reti gas a livello europeo.

Moncler: utile sale a 76,1 milioni nel 2013, ricavi +19%. Proposto dividendo di 0,10 euro per azione
Il Consiglio di Amministrazione di Moncler S.p.A. ha esaminato ed approvato il progetto di bilancio relativo all’esercizio 2013. Registrati Ricavi consolidati da EUR 580,6 milioni (+19%) e un EBIT Adjusted da Euro 172,5 milioni, in aumento del 18% rispetto ad Euro 145,8 milioni al 31 Dicembre 2012, con un’incidenza sui ricavi del 29,7%
L’Utile netto Adjusted del gruppo si è attestato a Euro 96,3 milioni, in aumento del 17% rispetto ad Euro 82,4 milioni nel 2012. L’Utile netto complessivo di Moncler è stato pari a Euro 76,1 milioni rispetto a Euro 28,8 milioni nel 2012. A fine 2013 l’Indebitamento finanziario netto complessivo ammonta a Euro 171,1 milioni (Euro 230,1 milioni al 31 Dicembre 2012). Proposto dividendo di Euro 0,10 per azione (Euro 25 milioni) pari ad un payout ratio del 26%

Pirelli: SocGen porta il prezzo obiettivo a 13,8 euro
Gli analisti di SocGen hanno deciso di promuovere a buy il titolo Pirelli portando il prezzo obiettivo da 12 a 13,8 euro.

Mediobanca alza la raccomandazione per Maire Tecnimont
Gli analisti di Mediobanca alzano la raccomandazione per Maire Tecnimont a “outperform” da “neutral”, fissando un prezzo obiettivo a 3,4 euro dal precedente 1,76 euro. Apprezzato il rilancio della societa’, dopo il piano di ristrutturazione, che ha portato ad una crescita degli ordinativi (1,25 miliardi di euro di nuove commesse tra dicembre e febbraio).

Finmeccanica si aggiudica contratto del valore di 1,2 miliardi di USD per la Metropolitana di Lima
Finmeccanica, attraverso le controllate Ansaldo STS e AnsaldoBreda, si aggiudica un contratto del valore di 1,2 miliardi di USD per la metropolitana senza conducente di Lima, in Perù. Il contratto è relativo alla concessione da parte di ProInversion, società statale peruviana che agisce per conto del Ministero dei Trasporti e delle Telecomunicazioni, della Linea 2 e di un ramo della Linea 4 della metropolitana di Lima per 35 anni.

PSA Peugeot Citroën: Carlos Tavares nominato ufficialmente Ceo
Carlos Tavares è stato nominato ufficialmente Ceo di PSA Peugeot Citroën al posto di Philippe

3 Fed Myths Debunked – 03/30/2014

3 Fed Myths Debunked

by Mitch Zacks, Senior Portfolio Manager

For years now investors, analysts, pundits, plumbers and car mechanics (add any profession you’d like) have been arguing about the merits of what the Federal Reserve’s actions have done to the economy and the consequences they will lead to.

You can argue about the Government’s intervention and role they played leading up to the financial crisis, but I believe the Fed acted appropriately at the beginning to keep the crisis from getting worse than it did. The argument now seems to be about what the Fed’s exit strategy will be and the consequences of their actions over the last five years will lead to.

Many investors, incorrectly, believe the Fed’s actions will have dire consequences, even though their initial action probably saved the economy from more damages. There are more incorrect beliefs but I’ve listed three of the most common ones I hear.

When the Fed Prints Money, It Increases Money Supply

What the Fed has been doing with QE through QE3 is printing money. They are buying bonds with the goal of the money they are spending flooding the economy with cash and increase credit. Again, the goal is to get corporations and especially banks to spend this money. They want corporations to buy new technology and equipment to replace outdated technology and equipment they have been making do with since the recession.

The goal was for banks to start increasing their lending and getting the money to people who want to borrow to start small businesses, buy homes and other big ticket necessities. Unfortunately it has not worked out this way.

The Fed has no way to control money supply. Banks control approximately 90% of the money supply and the banks have NOT been lending, and thus, the money supply has not been growing for all these years QE has been in place.

QE Is Why the Stock Market is Up

When the Fed buys U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, they are buying them mostly from banks. The problem with this is these banks are just re-depositing a vast majority of that money back into the Fed as excess reserves. The remaining money, for the most part is being invested in slightly riskier fixed income assets. These riskier assets are not equities because banks don’t want to get burned again like they did in 2008 and almost went out of business, like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

What QE has done is lift the confidence of investors by essentially saying “we won’t let 2008 happen again, so don’t be afraid.” It’s more psychology than it is a fundamental reason for the market going up.

Of course, psychology isn’t the only reason the market has soared in the last five years. Stocks were incredibly cheap at the beginning of 2009 and we experienced the very common rebound effect. Stocks hit a bottom and when all the bulls capitulate, the market roars back to life and experiences a huge upswing. But, that rebound effect is over. Fundamentals have taken over and are the main driver behind the advance in equities. GDP has grown for 5 straight years, corporate earnings are up and the market isn’t oversold.

The Fed is Going to Create Hyperinflation

With the Fed going on this bond-buying spree and trying to flood the economy with cheap money, surely inflation will follow. But, inflation is running just above 1%. So, how do those who predict high inflation justify their prediction? They say “it’s coming , someday.” I’ve even heard some say inflation is here now and the Fed is “cooking the books.” That seems like a tough proposition since we all know what we pay for everything and prices don’t seem to be moving in an upward trajectory. That’d be a pretty big conspiracy to pull off with a lot of moving parts, it just seems too far-fetched.

There really doesn’t seem to be any concern about inflation now or in the next few years. Afterall, all the “cheap money” being pumped into the economy hasn’t really made its way into the economy, it has been stuck at the banks. They are waiting for the yield curve to steepen so they can make more money lending on the long end and borrowing on the short end.

We will see inflation pick up, and that’s a good thing. It’s better than deflation. However, since QE hasn’t done what it’s supposed to do, I believe inflation will increase at a steady, measured pace that the market can easily digest.

Putting it All Together

The Fed has received a few accolades for avoiding a depression but in the last couple years they’ve felt more heat about the unintended consequences of what QE and leaving the short rate near zero will bring. But, there is only so much the Fed can do. If banks don’t want to lend, they won’t. Printing money in and of itself won’t cause hyperinflation. They don’t control the money supply, they only provide the tools for the economy to recover. The Fed is an easy scapegoat and they’ve made big mistakes in the past, but as of now, I haven’t seen them do anything catastrophic.

 

Quartz Daily Brief—Erdogan’s electoral win, Alibaba’s mall deal, Glencore’s iron dreams, cash-saving fonts

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Apple and Samsung butt heads again. Jury selection begins in the latest patent lawsuit between the tech giants, with Apple accusing Samsung of stealing its “slide to unlock” feature, among others. Samsung is counter-suing, and says it licensed the necessary patents from Google (paywall).

Janet Yellen explains herself. Two weeks ago, the chair of the US Federal Reserve suggested that rates may rise as early as next spring. She has yet to offer any further details, but in a speech in Chicago, she may well do.

The specter of deflation in the euro zone. Analysts expect the flash consumer price index to drop to 0.6%. That would be the sixth straight sixth month in the European Central Bank’s “danger zone,” which might prompt some action from the bank at its Thursday policy meeting.

Obamacare’s enrollment deadline. After reaching its 6 million target last week, the US government expects to see almost 7 million people enrolled in Obamacare by the end of the day. People without insurance could be fined 1% of their income, but that isn’t prompting everyone to jump on board.

Over the weekend

Climate change is hitting the world’s food supply. Yields of the staple crops wheat, rice and corn have already declined due to hotter temperatures, an intergovernmental climate panel warned, with bigger declines to come.

Erdogan survived a vote. With two-thirds of the votes counted, the Turkish prime minister’s AK Party had around 45% compared to the opposition’s 27%. In a victory speech, the PM promised to make his opposition “pay,” presaging further purges in the military, police, judiciary, and the media.

Alibaba ventured offline. The Chinese online giant announced a $692 million investment in Intime Retail Group, which operates dozens of large shopping centres in China. The two companies will together create department stores, shopping malls, and supermarkets designed around the concept of online-to-offline retailing.

Huawei profits surged. The Chinese telecom equipment maker’s annual net income rose 36% to 21 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) as it became the second-largest smartphone maker behind Samsung and Apple.

Glencore got one step closer to its iron ore dream. The mining giant signed a $1 billion deal with Mauritania for access to its railway and port facilities (paywall), ending two years of negotiations. Iron ore is a key profit maker for Glencore’s rivals, and represents 25% of the west African country’s economy.

Taiwanese protestors said it with flowers. Wearing black and clutching sunflowers as symbols of hope, more than 100,000 people rallied in Taipei against a deal that would open up China-Taiwan trade.

Cuba took a giant leap towards capitalism. Havana’s rubber-stamp parliament approved a bill that halves taxes on profits to 15% and exempts new investors from paying taxes for eight years.

Quartz obsession interlude

Tim Fernholz on why the rich keep getting richer, as explained by pop culture. “Modern pop culture tends to portray America as a meritocracy, where people with special skills do well. [French economist Thomas] Piketty illustrates this by turning to American television, citing the medical mystery-solving of House, the forensic investigators of Bones, and the brainy politicos of West Wing, with a president who has won the economics Nobel […] This meritocratic pop culture is behind the times, Piketty argues.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

French food is a shadow of its former self. But foreigners are breathing new life into moribund cuisine.

We’re making a big mistake with big data. Massive “found” data sets are vulnerable to sample bias.

Pretentious job titles are worth something. Thanks to the rise of LinkedIn, your title is now more than ever a status symbol (paywall).

Hot streaks exist. Not just in sports—the concept of the hot hand works in finance, too.

Surprising discoveries

The US government could save $136 million a year if it switched to Garamond font. A 14-year-old kid from Pittsburgh figured it out.

Sparkling wine will get you drunkest on the fewest calories. These charts prove it.

You can tell a man’s intelligence by looking at his face. It doesn’t work on women, though.

This pill makes your brain return to a child-like state. It allows an adult to pick up new skills faster, which can help treat developmental disorders—and lazy eye.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, intelligent facial expressions, and skinny font suggestions to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

Chart Advisor for March 30 2014

Tickers in this Article QQQ, DIA, SPY, IWM

Major U.S. indices moved lower over the past week despite data showing the economy grew slightly faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. In addition to the better-than-expected reading, new jobless claims fell to a four-month low last week, suggesting the economy has plenty of momentum. The market shrugged off these gains amid concerns the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected based on comments from Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

International markets moved largely higher this week despite troubles in the U.S. market. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.32%; Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.48%; and, Germany’s DAX 30 rose 1.16%. In Asia, investors are still wondering whether Japan’s consumption tax hikes will impact its recovery. In the Eurozone, economic growth has continued to progress, although there remains a lot of progress to be made before the recovery has fully taken hold over the long-term.

SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

The SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY) ETF fell 0.84% this week as of Thursday’s close. After moving off its highs, the index moved closer toward its 50-day moving average at 182.77 and the middle of its price channel. Traders should watch for a breakdown toward its lower trend line at 178.00 or a rebound to retest its highs. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears relatively neutral at 46.66 but the MACD remains in a long-term bearish downtrend.
SEE: Top Reasons Forex Traders Fail

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (ARCA:DIA)
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (ARCA:DIA) ETF fell 0.26% this week as of Thursday’s close. After bouncing off its upper trend line and prior high, the index moved closer to its 50-day moving average at 160.57. Traders should watch for a rebound from these levels toward its upper trend line or a move down to its S1 support and lower trend line at around 155.62. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears neutral at 51.74 but the MACD remains in a downtrend.
PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ)
chart
The PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq:QQQ) ETF fell 2.37% this week as of Thursday’s close. After moving below its 50-day moving average at 88.62, the index fell below its pivot point and lower trend line at around 88.03. Traders should watch for a further move below S1 support at 85.31 or a rebound to retest its lower trend line. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears oversold at 37.25 while the MACD remains in a bearish downtrend that’s confirmed by the price channel breakdown.

iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM)
The iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) ETF fell 3.66% this week as of Thursday’s close. After reaching its upper trend line, the index fell sharply lower past its 50-day moving average at 115.21 to its pivot point at 114.20. Traders should watch for a continued move down to its S1 support and lower trend line at 110.01 or a rebound higher to retest its upper trend line. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears oversold at 38.93 while the MACD remains in a bearish downtrend.

The Bottom Line
The major U.S. indices moved largely lower this week as of Thursday’s close. While the S&P 500 SPDR and the DJIA SPDR saw only modest declines, the Nasdaq QQQ and the Russell 2000 Index saw steeper declines. Next week, traders will be watching a number of key economic indicators including the ISM Index on April 1st, International Trade and Jobless Claims on April 3rd, and Employment Data on April 4th, in addition to any comments out of the Federal Reserve.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Justin Kuepper has many years of experience in the market as an active trader and a personal retirement accounts manager.

Disclosure – At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.