T U E S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, Italian bond yields fell to a 2.5-year low at the latest 10-year bond auction as investors embraced the new Italian coalition government. A German short-term government debt auction Monday saw funding costs at the lowest level since November, at virtually zero return for the debt buyers. This underscores the keener European investor uncertainty regarding the overall health of the European Union. Euro zone business confidence declined in April, it was reported Monday, in the latest dour economic data coming out of the EU. The European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting on Thursday, with the market place anxiously awaiting its outcome. Many market watchers think the ECB will lower interest rates at Thursday’s gathering. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest monetary policy actions in a busy week of world economic data. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes personal income and outlays, the Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index, pending home sales, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.–Jim
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. The stock index bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage as prices are back at or near
the recent for-the-move highs. The world economic data
slate becomes heavier as the week progresses. The markets
are keenly awaiting those new market inputs. The Federal
Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest monetary
policy actions. While no interest rate changes are
anticipated from the Fed, the FOMC statement Wednesday
afternoon will be very closely scrutinized for clues on
future Fed monetary policy. The European Central Bank holds
its monthly meeting on Thursday. Many market watchers think
the ECB will lower interest rates at Thursday’s gathering.
The monthly U.S. jobs report is due out Friday morning.
In overnight news, Italian bond yields fell to a 2.5-year
low at the latest 10-year bond auction as investors
embraced the new Italian coalition government. A German
short-term government debt auction Monday saw funding costs
at the lowest level since November, at virtually zero
return for the debt buyers. This underscores the keener
European investor uncertainty regarding the overall health
of the European Union. Euro zone business confidence
declined in April, it was reported Monday, in the latest
dour economic data coming out of the EU.
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June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 12/32 at 148 16/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Bond market bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend is in place
on the daily bar chart.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
ENERGIES: June Nymex crude oil closed up $1.23 at $94.22
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh two-week high. A weaker U.S. dollar index
boosted the oil market today. Bulls have regained the
slight near-term technical advantage.
June heating oil closed down 33 points at $2.8628 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage.
June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 76 points at
$2.8179 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The gasoline bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
June natural gas closed up 0.16 cents at $4.382 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Nat gas bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
fresh upside momentum today. A nine-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart was re-established today.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 69 points at 1.3102 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage.
The June Japanese yen closed up 25 points at 1.0208 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Tepid short
covering has been featured. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage.
The June Swiss franc closed up 63 points at 1.0676 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in
a bear market. The bears still have the near-term technical
advantage.
The June Canadian dollar closed up 54 points at .9876
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high on short covering and bargain
hunting. Bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage but the bulls have gained some momentum recently.
The June British pound closed up 12 points at 1.5494 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh nine-
week high today. Bulls have gained good upside technical
momentum recently. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage.
The June U.S. dollar index closed down .381 at 82.190
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show
fresh power soon.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: June gold futures closed up $17.00 an ounce at
$1,470.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
closed at a fresh two-week high close. More bargain hunting
and short covering were featured. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for gold today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Bulls
have gained good upside technical momentum to suggest that
a near-term market bottom is now in place. However, gold
prices remain in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart and the bears still have the overall technical
advantage.
July silver futures closed up $0.502 an ounce at $24.295
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh two week high close. More short covering
and bargain hunting were featured today. The key “outside
markets” were also in a bullish posture for silver today as
the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
higher. While silver bears are still in overall technical
control, the bulls have gained upside momentum recently.
However, silver prices are still in a seven-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart.
May N.Y. copper closed up 405 points at 322.50 cents
Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for copper today as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Copper bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: July sugar closed up 3 points at 17.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices
continue to hover near a 2.5-year low. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for sugar today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Yet,
sugar bulls could gain no traction, which is a bearish
clue. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.
July coffee closed down 20 points at 133.75 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another
fresh contract low. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for coffee today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and
crude oil prices were higher. Yet, coffee bulls could gain
no traction, which is a bearish clue. The coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
July cocoa closed down $26 at $2,338 a ton today. Prices
closed nearer the session low on profit taking. Prices
Friday hit a four-month high. The cocoa bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend
is in place on the daily bar chart.
July cotton closed up 165 points at 85.90 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for cotton
today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil
prices were higher. The cotton bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart.
July orange juice closed up 390 points at $1.4265 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The FCOJ bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage.
May lumber futures closed down $4.50 at $348.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
three-month low. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
GRAINS: July corn futures closed up the 40-cent limit at
$6.59 3/4 Monday. Prices hit a fresh four-week high as the
first major “weather market” of the U.S. planting and
growing season has been uncorked. A drier extended weather
forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt on Friday turned to a
wetter weather outlook come Monday morning. Now, there are
likely to be serious corn-planting delays in the Corn Belt.
The key outside markets were also bullish for the corn
market Monday as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude
oil prices were higher. The corn market bulls and bears are
now back on a level near-term technical playing field, but
the bulls have upside momentum on their side.
July soybeans closed up 27 3/4 cents at $14.08 3/4 a bushel
Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh four-week high on heavy short covering and bargain
hunting. The key outside markets were also bullish for the
soybean market Monday as the U.S. dollar index was lower
and crude oil prices were higher. The soybean market bulls
and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The limit gains in corn helped to propel
soybeans higher Monday, as did scant farmer selling of
soybeans in the U.S. cash market.
July soybean meal closed up $11.70 at $416.40 Monday.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-
week high. Heavy short covering and bargain hunting were
featured. The meal bulls have regained the slight near-term
technical advantage.
July bean oil closed down 3 points at 49.51 cents Monday.
Prices closed near mid-range. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for bean oil Monday, and other
grain markets rallied sharply. Bean oil lagged, which is a
bearish clue for bean oil. The bean oil bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage.
July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 24 cents at $7.16 1/2
Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high on heavy
short covering and bargain hunting. The key outside markets
were bullish for the wheat market Monday as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. The wheat
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the bulls gained upside momentum Monday to begin
to suggest a market bottom is in place. Traders will
closely monitor this week’s hard red winter wheat tour in
the U.S. Plains states.
July HRW wheat closed up 25 1/4 cents at $7.75 3/4 Monday.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
four-week high. Heavy short covering and bargain hunting
were featured. Also, there has been major freeze damage
done to the HRW wheat crop in the U.S. Plains states.
Traders are just now starting to grasp that bullish
fundamental factor. HRW bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.05 at $122.55
today. Prices closed near the session low today but did hit
a fresh four-week high. Cattle futures bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
still have some momentum on their side but need to show
fresh power soon to keep it.
August feeder cattle closed down $1.30 at $149.87 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The market saw
a corrective pullback today following recent strong gains.
Recent price action still suggests a market bottom is in
place. The feeder bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
June lean hogs closed down $0.37 at $92.15 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh
2.5-month high early on. Profit taking from recent gains
was seen today. The hog bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field but the bulls need to
show fresh power soon to keep that status. A bullish head-
and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart.
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T H A N K Y O U
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