Research & Investment

By Colin Twiggs
February 28th, 2016 10:00 a.m. AEDT (6:00 p.m. EST)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe have clearly tipped into a primary down-trend but the US remains tentative. The weight of the market is on the sell side and the risk of a global down-turn remains high.

Dow Jones Global Index found support at 270 and is rallying to test resistance at the former primary support levels of 290/300. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero flag a strong primary down-trend. Respect of 300 is likely and reversal below 290 warn of another decline. Breach of 270 would confirm.

Dow Jones Global Index

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 320 – 290 ) = 260

Willem Buiter of Citigroup warns that further monetary easing faces “strongly diminishing returns”, while “hurdles for a major fiscal stimulus remain high”. To me, major infrastructure spending is the only way to avoid prolonged stagnation but resistance to further increases in public debt is high. The only answer is to focus on productive infrastructure assets that generate returns above the cost of servicing debt, improving the overall debt position rather than aggravating it.

North America

Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above primary support at 16000 and is headed for a test of 17000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 17000 is likely and would warn of continuation of the primary down-trend. Reversal below 16000 would confirm the signal, offering a target of 14000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16000 – ( 18000 – 16000 ) = 14000

The most bearish sign on the Dow chart is the lower peak, at 18000, in late 2015. Only recovery above this level would indicate that long-term selling pressure has eased.

The S&P 500 is similarly testing resistance at 1950. Breakout is quite possible but only a higher peak (above 2100) would indicate that selling pressure has eased. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Reversal below 1870 would confirm the primary down-trend, offering a target of 1700*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2100 – 1900 ) = 1700

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is testing ‘support’ at 20. Respect is likely and would confirm that market risk remains elevated.

S&P 500 VIX

Canada’s TSX 60 respected the descending trendline after breaking resistance at 750. Reversal below 750 would warn of another test of 680/700. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum is so far indicative of a bear rally rather than reversal of the primary down-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 700 – ( 750 – 700 ) = 650

Europe

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is rallying to test resistance at the former primary support level of 3000. The large 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero confirms a strong primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is not that important, but another lower peak, followed by reversal below 3000, would signal a decline to 2400*.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 2400

Germany’s DAX recovered above resistance at 9300/9500. Expect a test of 10000 but buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary and reversal below 9300 would signal another decline, with a (long-term) target of 7500*.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9500 – ( 11500 – 9500 ) = 7500

The Footsie recovered above 6000, and the declining trendline, but the primary trend is down. Buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary and reversal below 6000 would signal another decline, with a target of 5500*. The long-term target remains 5000*.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6000 – ( 6500 – 6000 ) = 5500

Asia

The Shanghai Composite Index rallied off support at 2700 but respected resistance at 3000. Reversal below support would offer a target of 2400*. The primary trend is clearly down and likely to remain so for some time.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 2400

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is in a clear primary down-trend. Expect a test of 17000/18000 but respect of 18000 would warn of another test of 15000. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would flag more selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 17000 – ( 20000 – 17000 ) = 14000

India’s Sensex primary down-trend is accelerating, with failed swings to the upper trend channel. Breach of 23000 would offer a short-term target of 22000*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of more selling pressure.

SENSEX

* Target calculation: 23000 – ( 24000 – 23000 ) = 22000

Australia

The ASX 200 rally from 4700 respected resistance at 5000. Reversal below 4900 warns of another decline. Breach of support at 4700 would confirm. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term (secondary) buying pressure and reversal below zero would flag another decline. The primary trend is down and breach of 4700 would offer a target of 4400*. The long-term target remains 4000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 4700 – ( 5000 – 4700 ) = 4400; 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

Banks are taking a hammering, with the Banks index (XBAK) in a clear down-trend. Retracement to test resistance at 78 is weak and another strong decline likely. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, reflects long-term selling pressure.

ASX 200 Financials

Iran’s reformist election, Leo wins an Oscar, teleportation readiness

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Mexico’s national energy company reckons with low oil prices. Oil titan Pemex will discuss its fourth-quarter results and its plans to cut $5 billion from its 2016 budget.

Valeant reports unaudited earnings. The pharmaceutical giant publishes its fourth-quarter data only two days after restating its earnings for the past two years.

Irish women get down on one knee. Feb. 29 is leap day–which means that, in keeping with an Irish tradition dating back to the fifth century, some women will be proposing marriage to their boyfriends.

Over the weekend

Reformists won a landslide in Iran. All 30 seats up for grabs in Tehran were won by allies of president Hassan Rouhani. That’s important for those seeking change on a national level because Tehran-based lawmakers typically set the parliamentary agenda.

Leonardo DiCaprio won an Oscar. He won the award for his role in The Revenant, after receiving four other nominations but no award during his career so far. Brie Larson won best female actor for her role in Room, whileSpotlight won best picture.

Hillary Clinton won big in South Carolina. The Democratic presidential candidate scored 73.5% of the vote in Saturday’s (Feb. 27) primary, thanks in large part to the support of black voters. Analysts say this bodes well for Clinton heading into Super Tuesday.

Switzerland sided with immigrants… Almost 60% of voters in a Sunday (Feb. 28) referendum rejected a plan to deport foreigners convicted of crimes. The proposal had been widely criticized as xenophobic.

…As Angela Merkel defended her open-door policy. The German chancellor said that the country’s borders would remain open, but that Turkey should stem the flow of migrants. Merkel’s open-door policy would help “keep Europe together,” she said.

ISIL bombed Baghdad. The Islamic State launched several attacks in the suburbs of Iraq’s capital on Sunday. A twin suicide bombing in Sadr City, aShi’ite district, was the deadliest of the assaults, claiming the lives of 70 people and wounding 100 others.

Quartz obsession interlude

Anne Quito on the benefits of being German. “Germans have the most powerful passports in the world, offering visa-free access to 177 countries and territories out of a total of 218, according to the 2016 Visa Restrictions Index compiled by the London-based citizenship and immigration firm Henley & Partners. Germans have held this distinction since 2014. Swedes were close behind, with visa-free access to 176 countries.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

We should celebrate female friendships. The support that women sharecan be hard to find in romantic relationships.

The black church helps African-American men thrive. Those with faithare far more likely to have jobs, avoid jail, and get married.

If Bernie Sanders loses, he’ll still have left a lasting legacy. His popularity, even among Clinton supporters, suggests that his revolution could be a long, slow burn.

Surprising discoveries

Perfume advertisements speak to your subconscious. Beautiful women with heavy eyelids signal sexual satisfaction.

Facebook’s new emoji reactions ignore syntax. The reaction words (Love, Sad, Angry, Wow, and Haha) don’t belong together.

Barter economies never existed. There’s no historical description of such a system—though there is evidence of gift economies.

Somalia is turning into a cashless society. Few banks, more phones, and years of instability are fueling the trend.

Our brains are ready for teleportation. A study into how our minds would react to instant travel found that they would do just fine.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, improved Facebook emojis, and teleportation devices to hi@qz.com. And download our new iPhone app for news throughout the day.

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FinSentS Weekly Recap

Weekly Review of Headlines
● G20 Draft Says Group Should Explore New Policy Options To Support Growth –Nasdaq

n the absence of strong government support and economic overhauls, “central banks are in a much more difficult position,” said Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Friday ahead of the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in China’s financial hub. “There are returns to those strategies…but they’re much, much less powerful than a coordinated strategy.”…Read More

● Global Bond Yields Slump To New Lows –Rtrs

Feb 26 Global government borrowing costs have slumped to record lows as a combination of financial volatility, banking stress and slowing growth and inflation saw a flight to top-rated, liquid assets amid talk of ever lower interest rates…Read More

● Pound Suffers Its Biggest Decline Against The Dollar In A Year – BBG

Sterling dropped to its lowest level in almost seven years against the dollar, and weakened at least 1 percent against all its 16 major peers. The move reversed a gain made on Friday when Prime Minister David Cameron secured a deal on membership terms with EU leaders in Brussels.

● PBOC Injects CNY130 Bln Via Seven-Day Reverse Repos – MNI

A total of CNY960 billion in outstanding reverse repos matures this week including CNY390 billion Tuesday.

● BoJ’s Kuroda Blames ‘Excessive’ Risk Aversion For Market Tumult – RTRS

“Bank revenues have been rising as corporate bankruptcies fell due to a recovering economy. Bank lending has been also on the rise,” Kuroda told a parliament session. “I’m convinced that such rises in bank lending would have a positive effect on Japan’s economy,” he added.

● Base Metals Weaker, Gold Prices Firmer As Risk Off Returns – Fast Markets

Gold prices seem to have consolidated over the past week or so and are now looking better place to continue higher. Silver is still consolidating, as is platinum and to a lesser extent palladium. They all look well placed to push higher again, but we would expect they will only do so if gold leads the way. Platinum’s discount to gold is $290 and the gold/silver ratio is high at 1:80.4.

● US Treasurys Rise As Oil Concerns Remain – CNBC

Oil prices continue to contribute to volatility in both debt and equity markets. Hopes of an oil production cut were dashed on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi signaled no cuts would happen to tackle the global supply glut.

● HP Inc Says To Accelerate Job Cuts By 2016 – RTRS

Hewlett-Packard Co had said it expected to cut about 33,300 jobs over three years, of which up to 3,300 were to be cut in HP Inc. It said then that 1,200 people would leave the company by the end of 2016.

● European Stocks Open Lifted, London Traders Await Q4 GDP – WBP

Stocks in Europe opened higher on Thursday, affected by the latest set of corporate financial reports, while keeping an eye on the upcoming economic data and still monitoring oil’s price direction.

● Alibaba In Talks With Banks For Up To $4 Bln Loan – WSJ

Chinese Internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is in discussions with banks for a loan of up to $4 billion to fund expansion plans, including acquisitions, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Stock Information
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US Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund Has $43,511,000 Position in Facebook Inc (FB) #FACEBOOK INC #SP500 More Details

● $MSFT

US Kent Diamond, former Microsoft manager, dies at 54 #MICROSOFT CORP #SP500 More Details

● $AAPL

US Samsung wins longstanding patent feud with Apple #APPLE INC #NASDAQ More Details

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US Regent Investment Management Sells 600 Shares of 3M Co (MMM) #3M CO #SP500 More Details

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LN HSBC Hedge Weekly Performance List Puts Market Environments On Display #HSBC HLDGS PLC #STOXX600 More Details

● $POWR

US PowerSecure International, Inc. (POWR) Sees Large Volume Increase #POWERSECURE INTL INC #NASDAQ More Details

● $DBS

SP Budget 2016: Limited scope for radical budget this year, says DBS #DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD #APEX50 More Details

● $VOW

GR Beats come to Volkswagen Up and Polo #VOLKSWAGEN AG #STOXX600 More Details

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LN RBoSG PLC (RBS) Earns Buy Rating from Investec #Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC #LDN100 More Details

 

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Weekend edition—Apple and the FBI, cashless Somalia, why Brits say sorry

Good morning, Quartz readers!

Apple’s battle with the FBI is being talked about as a defining moment for privacy. And it is. But the real reason why is obscured by both sides’ rhetoric.

The FBI wants Apple’s help breaking into an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters. Apple has helped the government get data off locked iPhones many times in the past. But whereas on older iPhones it could do that just by bypassing the phone’s built-in security, this time it would have to write a new, less secure operating system and put it on the phone. That, says Apple, marshaling an impressive-sounding string of legal reasons, is what makes this case different—a precedent that, once set, will bend tech firms to the government’s every future whim.

But you might still ask: Is it fundamentally different? That’s the doubt the government wants to sow: Apple has drawn a line in the sand here, but couldn’t it have drawn it anywhere?

And in a sense, the government is right. For all Apple’s fancy legal arguments, something feels disingenuous in claiming that it’s OK to betray your customers’ privacy to the FBI using one technique and not another.

Yet the government’s claim is disingenuous too. It implies that everything is a continuum and there are no matters of principle. The reality, however, is that everything we now consider a matter of principle—from the ban on insider trading all the way back to “thou shalt not kill”—was once a line drawn in the sand, and only over time became a mighty barrier. Principles don’t get made until someone says “enough.”

Apple has now said “enough.” Other tech companies are joining in. Principles aren’t enshrined because of a legal wrangle over a technological quirk. They’re enshrined because someone chooses to stand and fight for them.—Gideon Lichfield

Five things on Quartz we especially liked

How Somalia became a cashless society. “In the streets of Mogadishu, the future has arrived,” writes Tony Onyulo. Years of conflict, a lack of banks and the spread of mobile phones have made one of the world’s poorest states an unlikely financial pioneer, adopting mobile payments at an unparalleled rate.

If Moscow builds it, will they come? Despite the crashing economy, sanctions, and millions of square meters of office lying empty, the Russian capital is still on a wild spree of building technoparks to attract startups and investors. David Lepeska tours the facilities that increasingly look like the 21st-century incarnation of the czarist era’s Potemkin villages.

America’s sick relationship with meat. American men eat too much meat for their health, yet carnivorism is plastered all over contemporary culture as a masculine trait, Deena Shanker writes. Meanwhile, women are far under-represented at the top of the meat industry, yet over-represented in meat processing plants, where injury rates are appallingly high.

At home (and work) with Bill and Melinda Gates. The Quartz video team spent some time in Seattle with the world’s biggest philanthropists and interviewed them about how a clean-energy breakthrough might still save the planet, how billionaires can bring up well-adjusted kids, and how to change a community by sharing school drop-off duties. Plus, a brief video history of Bill Gates’ little-known sense of humor.

Il Trumpo is not a joke. Silvio Berlusconi was a foul-mouthed, funny, buffoonish tycoon who nobody thought could win. “Then one day we woke up to find our government overrun by criminals, our economy destroyed, and our cultural mores perverted to the extent that the objectification of women was commonplace.” Annalisa Merelli brings home to Americans a dire warning from her native Italy.

Also in election coverage: Sady Doyle and Hanna Kozlowska analyze the US’s love-hate relationship with Hillary Clinton, and Gwynn Guilford on the South Carolina town that has “an uncanny knack for getting big-government-hating GOP candidates to promise big government spending.”

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

The unsung movie heroes of Bollywood. In Western film-making the script supervisor is indispensable—the person who ensures continuity from shot to shot. Indian film directors hardly use them. But those few who practice the craft can become legends, as Tanul Thakur relates in thisintimate look inside Bollywood for Caravan.

On not being a straight white man in Hollywood. You would not believe the things producers and casting directors say to actors who are female, queer, or of color. The New York Times’ Melena Ryzik has collected a whole raft of them. Best/worst line: “I couldn’t put you in a Shakespeare movie. They didn’t have black people then.”

American literature’s forgotten prodigy. Pamela Moore’s first book, published when she was 18, was a runaway bestseller that should have put her in the canon with writers like Sylvia Plath and Erica Jong. But since her suicide at 26 she’s been all but forgotten. Her story, Koa Beck in Marie Claire writes, is a commentary on both the arbitrariness and the lethality of celebrity.

Make friends with your kidnappers. In January, three escaped prisoners from California’s Orange County jail held taxi driver Long Ma hostage for a week while arguing whether to kill him. Anh Do at the Los Angeles Times examines Ma’s unexpected bond with one of the captors, who saved his life, and whom he now visits in prison.

Why the Brits say “sorry” so much. For the BBC, Linda Geddes looked into the peculiar British tendency to apologize for things that they can’t control—sneezing, getting bumped into, the weather. It’s down to a “negative-politeness” culture, she says, a perfect way to describe theobscure, complex emotions that lurk beneath the surface of that famous stiff upper lip.

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, Bollywood film scripts, and apologies to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

RPT-MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi venerdì 26 febbraio 26/02/2016 – RSF

Elimina segno grafico nel terzo paragrafo)
NUOVO DECENNALE IN ASTE MEDIO LUNGO – Sono previsti in lieve rialzo i rendimenti, rispetto a fine gennaio, nelle aste a medio lungo odierne, in cui il Tesoro lancia il nuovo Btp decennale giugno 2026,cedola 1,60%. L’offerta complessiva è fino a 8,25 miliardi e comprende inoltre la riapertura del Btp quinquennale novembre 2020 e del Ccteu dicembre 2022 . Ieri in chiusura di seduta, sul mercato grigio di Mts il giugno 2026 <IT517083=TT>trattava al rendimento dell’1,57% contro l’1,44% dell’asta di un mese fa, quando in offerta c’era il ‘vecchio’ benchmark dicembre 2025, cedola 2%; il quinquennale <IT5YT=TWEB> scambiava in chiusura allo 0,49% sul secondario, dallo 0,42% di gennaio.

BTP – Seduta lievemente positiva ieri per l’obbligazionario italiano, ma chiusa sotto i massimi in attesa delle aste odierne, in un mercato dai volumi comunque sottili. Il benchmark decennale (dicembre 2025) riparte stamane da quota 1,52%, lo spread su Bund da 138 punti base. Si conferma intanto la tendenza all’appiattimento della curva sul tratto 10-30 anni, ieri in chiusura a 110 pb, ovvero nuovamente sui livelli minimi del 2016.

JUNCKER IN ITALIA – Faccia a faccia a Roma traJuncker e Renzi. L’incontro arriva dopo mesi di rapporti non facili tra i due sui temi della crescita, del rigore finanziario e dell’emergenza immigrazione. I quotidiani italiani stamane sottolineano però come ultimamente il clima si sia fatto più disteso e a Bruxelles sia stato apprezzato il ‘Position Paper’ nei giorni scorsi da Roma per rilanciare l’integrazione europea. Sulla questione deficit 2016, secondo la ricostruzione di Repubblica, Renzi e Juncker non scenderanno nel dettaglio oggi ma daranno mandato a Padoan e Moscovici di chiudere la questione entro fine marzo. Lo schema sarebbe definito: l’Italia come gesto di buona volontà abbasserà il disavanzo di 2/3 miliardi al 2,3%-2,35% da 2,4% attraverso una serie di provvedimenti amministrativi sulla spesa. Per l’anno prossimo, sempre secondo Repubblica, Bruxelles dovrebbe concedere almeno 8 miliardi di flessibilità (il deficit dovrà scendere a 1,6% e non a 1,1%), evitando al governo una maxi manovra da 25 miliardi.

OCSE SU ITALIA – Nonostante i risultati raggiunti col Jobs Act, resta prioritario per l’Italia mettere in moto “un’ampia gamma di politiche” per contrastare una disoccupazione che rimane alta, con effetti negativi sulla crescita di lungo termine. Èquanto scrive l’Ocse nell’edizione 2016 del ‘Going for Growth’, preparato per il vertice G20, al via oggi a Shanghai. Nel rapporto l’organizzazione riconosce tuttavia che all’interno della zona euro l’Italia, insieme alla Spagna, è tra i paesi in cuiil processo di riforma continua a procedere più rapido, in particolare rispetto ai paesi del nord (news).

G20 – Numerosi i temi sul tavolo dei ministri finanziari e dei banchieri centrali del G20, alle prese con le recenti turbolenze dei mercati internazionali e i segnali concreti di rallentamento economico globale. L’Ocse per l’occasione ha invitato i governi delle 20 principali economie mondiali a intraprendere riforme per rilanciare la crescita, le cui prospettivenel breve termine sono piuttosto magre. Altro punto di discussione saranno le politiche sui cambi valutari, con un occhio di riguardo allo yuan cinese.

INFLAZIONE – In arrivo in mattinata, sul fronte macro, diversi dati di rilievo dallazona euro; l’interesse maggiore va ai preliminari di febbraio sull’indice dei prezzi al consumo di Germania e Francia, che dovrebbero dare, al mercato e alla Bce, nuove evidenze della debolezza della dinamica dei prezzi. Per la Germania le stimeindicano un’inflazione tendenziale allo 0,1% per il dato nazionale e a zero per quello armonizzato, in calo rispettivamente da 0,5% e da 0,4% di gennaio. Nella medesima direzione vanno le attese sull’inflazione francese: 0,1% per l’armonizzato difebbraio da 0,4% del mese precedente. Ieri il dato finale sull’inflazione della zona euro di gennaio ha visto una limatura verso il basso, a 0,3% su anno dallo 0,4% preliminare (news).

PIL USA – Nel primo pomeriggio il focus passadecisamente sulla seconda lettura del Pil Usa del quarto trimestre, alla luce del recente andamento di dati e mercati, che ha spinto diversi esponenti della Fed, tra cui anche alcuni noti ‘falchi’, quanto meno a smorzare le attese di un rapido e ampio ciclo di rialzo dei tassi. Le stime indicano un ulteriore ridimensionamento della crescita Usa, a +0,4% da +0,7% della prima lettura uscita a fine gennaio, che già segnava un brusco rallentamento rispetto al +2 del terzo trimestre (news).

RATING – Sono diversi i pronunciamenti sui rating sovrani europei attesi oggi a mercati chiusi. Moody’s si esprime su Germania (si parte da una valutazione Aaa con outlook stabile), Austria (Aaa negativo), Lussemburgo (Aaa stabile) e Grecia(Caa3 stabile). Ci sono poi Dbrs sull’Olanda (AAA stabile) e Fitch sulla Turchia (BB- stabile).

INFLAZIONE GIAPPONE – La discesa dei prezzi del greggio, come da attese, ha determinato una variazione nulla su base annua dell’inflazione core(che esclude la componente degli alimentari freschi) a gennaio. L’indice resta ben al di sotto del target del 2% perseguito dalla banca centrale, evidenziando i rischi che le autorità si trovano ad affrontare nel tentare di portare il Giappone fuoridalla stagnazione. L’indice relativo all’area di Tokyo, che anticipa di un mese la tendenze nazionali, a febbraio ha mostrato una contrazione tendenziale di 0,1% (-0,2% le attese degli analisti).

DATI CINA – Quarta crescita mensileconsecutiva per i prezzi delle case in Cina, con le città principali a guidare la classifica dei rialzi, a suggerire una ripresa disomogenea del mercato immobiliare sulla spinta delle politiche pro-cicliche del governo. Secondo calcoli Reuters basatisui dati forniti dall’ufficio statistiche di Pechino, i prezzi medi delle abitazioni nellle 70 città principali del paese sono crescite del 2,5% su anno a gennaio da 1,6% segnato il mese precedente.

GREGGIO – Quotazioni petrolifere pocomosse in Asia, con gli investitori poco convinti dell’utilità della riunione fissata per marzo tra alcuni paesi produttori per discutere del congelamento della prodizione, in un contesto dove continua a dominare la sovrabbondanza di offerta. Alle 7,30 italiane il future Brent <LCOc1> scambia a 35,12 dollari il barile (- 17 centesimi); il Nymex <CLc1> a 33,02 dollari (- 5 centesimi).

FOREX – Il dollaro è in calo nei confronti delle principali controparti, ma resta comunque impostato asegnare un guadagno settimanale nei confronti delle principali controparti. L’attenzione degli investitori si concentra sul G20 finanziario, da cui si aspettano rassicurazioni sulla tenuta della ripresa. Il cambio euro/dollaro <EUR=> tratta a1,1051 da 1,1021 dell’ultima chiusura; dollaro/yen <JPY=> a 112,70 da 112,98; euro/yen <EURJPY=> a 124,55 da 124,45.

TREASURIES – Chiusura in rialzo per i governativi americani, sulla cautela degli investitori nei confronti delle prospettive di crescita globali. Il benchmark decennale Usa <US10YT=RR> ha terminato la seduta in rialzo di 12/32, rendimento 1,70% da 1,74% della precedente chiusura.

DATI MACROECONOMICI
ITALIA
Istat, retribuzioni contrattualigennaio (10,00).

Istat, fatturato servizi 4° trimestre (11,00).

FRANCIA
Stima prezzi consumo febbraio (8,45) – attesa dato armonizzato 0,1% a/a.

Revisione e dettaglio Pil trim4 (8,45) – attesa 0,20% t/t.

Prezzi produzionegennaio (8,45).

Spesa consumi gennaio (8,45) – attesa 0,6% m/m.

GERMANIA
Stima prezzi consumo febbraio (14,00) – attesa dato nazionale 0,5% m/m; 0,1% a/a; dato armonizzato 0,6% m/m; 0,0% a/a.

GRAN BRETAGNA
Fiducia consumatori febbraio – attesa 3.

PORTOGALLO
Fiducia imprese.

Fiduciaconsumatori.

SPAGNA
Stima prezzi consumo febbraio (9,00) – attesa dato armonizzato -0,6% a/a.

ZONA EURO
Economic sentiment febbraio (11,00) – attesa 104,4.

USA
Bilancia commerciale gennaio trim4 (14,30).

Seconda lettura Pil trim4 (14,30) – attesa 0,4%.

Preliminari vendite trim4 (14,30) – attesa 1,1%.

Spesa consumi trim4 (14,30).

Deflatore Pil trim4 (14,30) – attesa 0,8%.

Indice Pce trim4 (14,30) – attesa 1,2%.

Fiduciaconsumatori Università Michigan finale febbraio (15,55).

Consumi reali gennaio (16,00).

Redditi personali gennaio (16,00) – attesa 0,4% m/m.

Indice Pce gennaio (16,00).

ASTE DI TITOLI DI STATO
ITALIA
Tesoro offre3,5-4 miliardi nuovo Btp a 10 anni scadenza 1/6/2026, cedola 1,60%; 1,75-2,25 miliardi nona tranche Btp a 5 anni scadenza 1/11/2020, cedola 0,65%; 1,5-2 miliardi 11.ma tranche Ccteu scadenza 15/12/2022.

BANCHE CENTRALI
ITALIA Banca d’Italia indice Eurocoin gennaio.

Banca d’Italia, atteso entro 26 febbraio sondaggio congiunturale trimestrale su mercato abitazioni in Italia.

EUROPA/USA
New York, ‘US Monetary Policy Forum’; intervengono Praet (Bce – 19,30)e consiglieri Fed Powell (16,15) e Brainard (19,30).

APPUNTAMENTI
ITALIA
Roma, Juncker in Italia, incontra Grasso (9,45), Napolitano (10,30), Boldrini (11,15), rappresentanza Commissione Ue (12,00), Renzi (13,30), Mattarella(16,00).

Roma, Consiglio dei ministri (17,00).

Milano, convegno Consob-Bocconi SU “Securities markets: Trends, risks and policies”; Vegas apre i lavori (dalle 9,00).

EUROPA
Irlanda, elezione ‘House of Representatives’. Svizzera, congresso straordinario Fifa a Zurigo.

Austria, Moody’s si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Germania, Moody’s si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Grecia, Moody’s si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Lussemburgo, Moody’s si pronuncia surating sovrano.

Olanda, Dbrs si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Turchia, Fitch si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

ASIA
Cina, a Shanghai inizia G20 finanziaro – ministri Finanze e banchieri centrali; termina il 27 febbraio; partecipaPadoan.

Cina, a Shanghai Ocse presenta rapporto “Going for Growth” con Gurria e ministro Finanze cinese Lou Jiwei (3,30).

Sul sito http://www.reuters.it altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche su http://www.twitter.com/reuters_italia

Websim Focus sui Mercati Finanziari 26/02/2016 – WS

Wall Street ha chiuso in rialzo grazie alla spinta di finanziari e tech: S&P500 +1,1%,

Dow Jones +1,3%, tutte e trenta le società del paniere principale hanno chiuso con segno positivo, Nasdaq +0,87%.

Asia. Stamattina prevale il tono positivo: Tokio +0,3%. Shanghai, dove inizia oggi il G20 dei ministri finanziari, è in rialzo dell’1%, Hong Kong +1,4%, Seul piatta, Mumbay +0,3%.

Il governatore della banca centrale della Cina, Zhou Xiaochuan, ha ribadito che il Paese è in salute e che il governo, in caso di rallentamento economico pronunciato, ha strumenti di intervento validi ed efficaci.

I future sulle borse europee anticipano un avvio in rialzo dello 0,9%.

Analisi Tecnica Borse.

Nel breve prevale ancora un clima di forte volatilità che evidenzia lo stato di confusione degli investitori. In questa fase Wall Street dimostra di essere più tonica delle borse europee. Teniamo sempre presente che il petrolio, la variabile chiave per spiegare la debolezza degli ultimi mesi, ha smesso di scendere.

S&P500 (1.951, +1,13%). Prova ad attaccare il primo scoglio in area 1.950/2mila punti. La perdita da inizio anno si è ridotta al 6%. Supporti importanti verso area 1.800.

Cina. Il CSI 300 (oggi +1% a 2.950) prova a reagire al catastrofico -6% di ieri non riuscendo a riportarsi oltre l’importante supporto in area 3mila punti appena ceduto. Il quadro è tornato ad essere molto fragile. Occhi puntati all’ultimo sostegno verso 2.800 punti.

FtseMib (17.104, +2,3%). Andamento schizofrenico nel brevissimo. Solo il ritorno stabile sopra area 17.500 potrà rasserenare il quadro. Verso il basso guardiamo alla tenuta di 16mila/15.800. Milano resta una delle piazze peggiori al mondo da inizio 2016 (-20%).

Dax (9.331, +1,8%). Riprende “per i capelli” quota 9.300 punti confermando che ce la può fare a spingersi verso 10.300 punti. L’indice resta a debita distanza dai sostegni strategici verso 8.400/8mila punti.

Tokio (oggi 16.188, +0,3%). Chiude la seconda settimana positiva di seguito (+1,4% il bilancio totale) allungando il +7% di quella precedente. Finchè rimane sopra l’importante supporto a 15mila non ci sono pericoli. Segnali di forza solo sopra 17.600 punti.

Brasile (Bovespa 41.887, -0,5%). Ancora una volta dimostra ottima tenuta. Da inizio anno la borsa brasiliana perde solo il 5% Sopra 44mila la tendenza negativa potrebbe invertirsi.

Commodity.

Petrolio. Ieri ha guadagnato il 2,5% dopo le dichiarazioni del ministro del Petrolio venezuelano sull’imminente apertura di una conferenza tra paesi produttori, obiettivo: stabilizzare il mercato. Oggi Brent 35,2 usd, Wti 33 usd. Nel frattempo registriamo che continuano i tagli alla produzione (Halliburton) che contribuiranno a riequilibrare domanda e offerta nel medio termine. Attesa una accelerazione su violazione di area 36 usd.

Oro (1.238 usd). Anche se le borse rimbalzano l’oro dimostra ottima tenuta. Visto che le incertezze sono ancora tante preferiamo mantenere una quota rilevante nel Portafoglio Modello. Nuovi segnali di forza sopra 1.260 usd.

Forex.

Euro/Sterlina 0,791. Ieri non ha segnato nuovi minimi di periodo ma il cross è ben lungi dal riprendersi. I timori di Brexit permangono e probabilmente peseranno fino al referendum di giugno.

Valute Emergenti. Niente di particolare da segnalare. Il pesante sell off della scorsa estate è alle spalle, tuttavia non si vedono segnali di forza particolarmente interessanti.

Euro/Dollaro 1,105. La volatilità resta bassa. Il cross ha trovato un punto di equilibrio a metà strada del range 1,05-1,15. Non vediamo occasioni di trading.

Bond governativi.

Germania. Il rendimento del Bund tedesco (0,138%) si avvicina al minimo storico dell’anno scorso di 0,07%. Stiamo pronti a prendere profitto per la quota inserita nel Portafoglio Modello. Non ci aspettiamo annunci bomba dalla Bce a marzo e non vediamo più spazi di rialzo importanti per i prezzi dei bund tedeschi.

Italia. I nostri titoli di Stato faticano a tenere il ritmo dei bund tedeschi e lo testimonia lo spread che si allarga a 146 punti base, mentre il rendimento del BTP 10 anni scende a 1,50% per effetto trascinamento. Niente di preoccupante.

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Iran and FIFA elections, Rubio attacks Trump, video-shamed litterbugs

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today and over the weekend

G20 finance ministers meet in Shanghai. Talk is expected to turn to China’s slowing economy, and perhaps its ridiculous stock market, during the two-day conference. British fin-min George Osborne will be cajoling his peers to come out against a Brexit.

FIFA votes on its next president. Candidates are vowing to restore the international soccer body’s tarnished reputation, but their campaigns arepromising more money and travel for FIFA members—a move right out of Sepp Blatter’s playbook.

Iran holds elections. Voters will choose legislators and a clerical council(paywall) that will help elect the country’s next supreme leader. President Hassan Rouhani hopes to put more moderates in power.

Warren Buffett sums up a terrible year. Saturday’s annual letter to shareholders may contain hints about who will take over at Berkshire Hathaway when its legendary 85-year-old CEO retires.

While you were sleeping

GOP presidential candidates debated again. Senator Marco Rubio stood out for aggressively attacking billionaire Donald Trump, who clearly leads in polls, over his anti-immigration stance. “If he builds the wall the way he built Trump Towers, he’ll be using illegal immigrant labor to do it,” said the Florida lawmaker.

US-China sanctions against North Korea were revealed. The USsubmitted to the UN a China-backed draft resolution that could bar the country from importing aviation fuel and small arms. It could ultimately end all North Korean exports to UN member states.

Up to seven were killed in a Kansas mass shooting. A gunman waskilled by police after also wounding around 20 former colleagues at his workplace. The suspected shooter, who carried a rifle and a handgun, had a history of criminal activity.

Sharp lost 14% of its value, for the second day. The troubled Japanese electronics maker also lost 14.4% yesterday (Feb. 25) after Foxconn, which was planning to buy the company, delayed signing a deal. The Taiwanese buyer said it had been alerted to potential risks only on Wednesday.

Apple took its FBI defense to court. The tech company filed a motion against an order forcing it to unlock an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters. Apple argued that the FBI request would violate the First Amendment, which secures the right to free speech.

Baidu delivered a strong quarter. The Chinese internet giant reported fourth-quarter revenue of 18.5 billion yuan ($2.8 billion), marking a 33% increase compared with a year earlier. That sent share prices up as much as 12%.

Halliburton cut even more jobs. The oilfield services giant is laying off another 5,000 workers, after it slashed 4,000 jobs in the final quarter of last year. Since late 2014, oil prices have forced the company to cut a quarter of its staff.

Quartz obsession interlude

Michael Erard on why people distrust foreign accents. “‘We’re less likely to believe something if it’s said with a foreign accent,’ one expert explained. In her view, negative judgments are the result of the additional effort that our brains must make to process foreign speech. Our brains then shift the blame for this effort onto the veracity of the speaker.” Read more here.

Quartz markets haiku

Not an epic day
Oil rose, so did stocks
We’re at a seven-week high

Matters of debate

America doesn’t like women who seek power. Hillary Clinton’s approval ratings soar when she’s on the job, but plummet when she’s campaigning.

“-splaining” has become a meaningless suffix. A once-useful term to criticize sexism has become nothing more than a lazy joke.

Good customer service acts inversely to economic health. In the good times, expect service to decline.

Surprising discoveries

Homesickness was once considered a fatal medical condition. Luckily it was easily curable.

Colorado’s emergency rooms are full of tourists. Weed is now legal in the state, but visitors are overdoing it a bit.

Sperm are a virus’s best friend. The body’s defenses give them a free pass, helping them spread Zika and HIV.

Mexico City is shaming litterers on Periscope. The social media appbroadcasts their misdeeds in real time.

Michigan’s potholes could be worth billions. The state is vying for a slice of government funding to test self-driving cars on its crummy roads.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, litterbug videos, and homesickness cures to hi@qz.com. You can follow uson Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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