Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future has retreated 20 points to 15266. The US Dollar Index dropped 0.189 points to 80.404. Gold is declining 3.55 dollars to 1321.95. Silver has slipped 0.0730 dollars to 21.6650. The Dow Industrials moved lower 66.79 points, at 15334.59, while the S&P 500 softened 4.42 points, last seen at 1697.42. The Nasdaq Composite rose 15.43 points to 3780.72. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Wednesday
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 428.2)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous +11.2%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 188.1)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous +2.5%)
Refinance Index (previous 1801.7)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +17.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Aug Advance Report on Durable Goods
Total Orders (expected -0.6%; previous -7.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -6.7%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. Aug New Residential Sales
Overall Sales (expected 420K; previous 394K)
Percent Change (expected +6.6%; previous -13.4%)
Months’ Supply (previous 5.2)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 355.63M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous -4.37M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 216.02M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.63M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 131.09M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.08M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.5%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 19.82M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +1.46M)
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CURRENCIES
December Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it extended the short covering rebound off last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month’s decline, February’s low crossing at 79.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.67. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 80.15. Second support is February’s low crossing at 79.66.
The December Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, February’s high crossing at 137.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 135.73. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 137.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.30.
The December British Pound closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5761 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1.6112. Second resistance is the December 2012 high crossing at 1.6264. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5943. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5761.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, January’s high crossing at .11062 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10806 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at .11015. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at .11062. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10877. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10806.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low, June’s high crossing at 98.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 97.99. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 98.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.11.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at .10330 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10093 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at .10223. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10330. First support is this month’s low crossing at .9943. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9860.
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ENERGIES
November crude oil closed lower on Tuesday extending this month’s decline. A short covering rebound tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.
October heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but not before spiking below the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 287.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.02. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.14. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 287.93.
October unleaded gas posted an upside reversal due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 270.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.39. First support is today’s low crossing at 260.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 259.52.
October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.418 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.659 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.659. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418. Second support is April’s low crossing at 3.154.
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FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June’s low, the 2012 high crossing at 27.25 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August’s high, May’s low crossing at 81.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
Corn closed down 4 1/2-cents at 4.48 3/4.
December corn closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 5.08 1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.48. Second support is August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4.
December wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 6.58 1/4.
December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 6.62 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.76 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.36 3/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 7.04.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Today’s close above the reaction high crossing at 7.03 opens the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 7.17. If December renews the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 7.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.88 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 7.05.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.13 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.13 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.48. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 6.97 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.93 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
soybeans closed up 4 3/4-cents at 13.12 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but remains below the 38% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 13.15. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.55 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.55 1/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 14.09 1/2. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 13.05 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.85.
December soybean meal closed up $3.10 at 412.30.
December soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 404.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 426.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 426.80. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 451.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 404.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 390.60.
December soybean oil closed down 15 pts. at 42.09.
December soybeans closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 41.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 44.46. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 41.96. Second support is August’s low crossing at 41.85.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday ending a two-day correction off last Friday’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 3241.50. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 3329.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3191.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3144.71.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. Today’s rally ended a three-day decline following comments by President Obama that eased concerns over Middle East tensions. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is gap support crossing at 1702.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.47.
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday’s decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 15,457. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,185 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off August’s low, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 15,709. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today’s low crossing at 15,340. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,185.
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INTEREST RATES
T-bonds closed up 1-04/32 at 133-01.
December T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 133-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 135-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-18. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 128-12.
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LIVESTOCK
hogs closed up $2.32 at $92.50.
October hog gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday thereby renewing the rally off March’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI will need to see additional strength before turning bullish again. If October extends the rally off March’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 93.12. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.30. First support is today’s gap crossing at 90.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.83.
October cattle closed up $0.72 at 127.32.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 127.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 127.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.89. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.69.
October feeder cattle closed up $1.67 at $163.77.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May’s low, January’s high crossing at 164.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 163.80. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 164.75. First support is Monday’s gap crossing at 160.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.98.
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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1362.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1362.30. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August’s low crossing at 1272.10.
December silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last Thursday’s high. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.985 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 19.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.985. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 25.160. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 21.225. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 20.867.
December copper closed lower on Tuesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing at 339.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 326.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 335.95. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 339.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 326.20. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 319.05.
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