| Morning Markets Report Prepared on Monday, July 28, 2014 Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved. Summary
Key Events for Monday 9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI 10:00 AM ET. June Pending Home Sales Index Current (previous 103.9) MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +6.1%) YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous -5.2%) 10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Business Activity Index (previous 11.4) Manufacturing Production Index (previous 7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous -0.4%) Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +2.8%) 8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index MoM % Change (previous -0.3%) 12MonChgPct (previous +3.9%) 52WkChgPct (previous +3.7%) 9:00 AM ET. May S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10-city Index, M/M (previous +1%) 10-city Index, Y/Y (previous +10.8%) 20-city Index, M/M (previous +1.1%) 20-city Index, Y/Y (previous +10.8%) National Q/Q National Y/Y 10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies 10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Index (previous 85.2) Expectation Index (previous 85.2) Present Situation Index (previous 85.1) 4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.56M) Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.6M) Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.5M) Refinery Runs (previous 93.3%) N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
CURRENCIESThe September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 81.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 81.26. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 81.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.46. The September Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 134.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.60 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.60. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 134.22. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134.10. The September British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s losses. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1.6941 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7090 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7090. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1.7184. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1.6954. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6941. The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1043 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1165 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1110. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1165. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1051. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1043. The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.22. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 93.99. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 92.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77. The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, July’s low crossing at .9768 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9847 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .9956. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
ENERGIESSeptember Nymex crude oil was lower overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.83 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 103.45 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s high crossing at 106.64 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 103.45. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 106.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.83. Second support is July’s low crossing at 98.68. September heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 38% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 293.29 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 287.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 293.29. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 296.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 287.97. Second support is July’s low crossing at 284.05. September unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 276.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 289.57 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 284.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 289.57. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 281.90. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 276.41. September Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June’s high, last November’s low crossing at 3.582 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.078 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday’s gap crossing at 3.938. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.078. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.725. Second support is last November’s low crossing at 3.582.
FOOD & FIBERSeptember coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends this week’s rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, June’s high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.02 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. September cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this spring’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 33.30 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.15 would confirm that a top has been posted. October sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.39 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews this month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-June rally crossing at 16.50 is the next downside target. December cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 57.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
GRAINSDecember corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this summer’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short covering bounce ahead of the August crop report is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May’s high, monthly support crossing at 3.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 3.64 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.48. December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.69 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.69 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.05. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00. December Kansas City Wheat closed up 11-cents at 6.45 1/4. December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.64 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 6.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 6.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.64 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.32. Second support is January’s low crossing at 6.22. December Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.51 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer’s decline, psychologial support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.51. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 6.24 1/4. Second support is psychologial support crossing at 6.00. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains November soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.93 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November extends this month’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.93 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.18 3/4. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 10.55. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10.54. December soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 353.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this summer’s decline, January’s low crossing at 337.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 353.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 366.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 340.00. Second support is January’s low crossing at 337.10. December soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.31 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 35.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.31. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 35.88. Second support is weekly support crossing at 35.87.
U.S. STOCK INDEXESThe September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this summer’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 3991.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.49. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3854.00. The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1942.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1985.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1942.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1936.00.
INTEREST RATESSeptember T-bonds were lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past six days. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-08 would confirm that a top has been posted. If September extends this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 140-16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 138-27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 140-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138-03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-08.
LIVESTOCKAugust hogs closed up $0.42 at $123.62. August hogs closed higher on Friday. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 25% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 121.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s gap crossing at 124.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.72. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 122.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 121.45. August cattle closed up $2.55 at 159.10. August cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off this month’s low. The USDA cattle-on-feed report showed that 10.1 million head were on feed (98%) of year ago levels. Placements were 1.46 million head. (94%) of year ago levels. Marketed were 1.85 million head or (98%) of year ago levels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 152.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 159.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146.80. August feeder cattle closed up $0.92 at $218.25. August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 219.25 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 204.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 218.37. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 219.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 207.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 204.85.
PRECIOUS METALSAugust gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1314.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1258.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1314.40. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1346.80. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 1287.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1258.00. September silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 19.490 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.002 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.002. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.315. Third resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.790. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 20.350. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 19.490. September copper was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s rally, July’s high crossing at 329.45 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 327.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 329.45. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 308.61.
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stochastics
Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 24/07/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, July 24, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is trending higher 30 points to 17055. The US Dollar Index dropped 0.033 points to 80.778. Gold is trending higher 0.58 dollars to 1299.65. Silver is trending higher 0.0785 dollars to 20.8850. The Dow Industrials trended lower by 26.91 points, at 17086.63, while the S&P 500 gained 3.48 points, last seen at 1987.01. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 17.27 points to 4473.29. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 1068.7K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 598.7K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 320.7K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 310K; previous 302K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -3K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2507000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -79K)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales
Overall Sales (expected 478K; previous 504K)
Percent Change (expected -5.2%; previous +18.6%)
Months’ Supply (previous 4.5)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.9%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2129B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +107B)
11:00 AM ET. July Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Manufacturing Activity Index (previous 2)
Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 17)
Manufacturing Composite Index (previous 6)
6-Month Composite Expectations Index (previous 12)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A Utah Pioneer
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Report on Durable Goods
Total Orders (expected +0.5%; previous -1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +0.6%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -0.1%)
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 81.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.98. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.34.
The September Euro is working on a possible key reversal up and was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 134.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.84 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.54. First support is the overnight low crossing at 134.39. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134.10.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1.6941 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7100 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.7184. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.6998. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6941.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1043 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1185 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1142. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1185. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1068. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1043.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.35. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 93.99. First support is the the 25% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 92.54. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9827 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .9956. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
September Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.66 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June’s high crossing at 106.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.63 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.66. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 106.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.63. Second support is July’s low crossing at 98.68.
August heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 289.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June’s high, the June 2013 low crossing at 278.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 289.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 296.67. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 282.58. Second support is the June 2013 low crossing at 278.50.
August unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off June’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 280.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 294.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 288.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 294.59. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 285.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 280.40.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, last November’s low crossing at 3.593 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.137 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s gap crossing at 3.934. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.137. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.744. Second support is last November’s low crossing at 3.593.
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FOOD & FIBER
September coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s rally, June’s high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. If September renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.31 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this spring’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 33.30 is the next upside target. Close below the reaction low crossing at 30.40 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.54 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews this month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-June rally crossing at 16.50 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 66.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this summer’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, monthly support crossing at 3.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.79. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 3.65 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.48.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.05. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 6.36 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.72 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.47 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.72 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.32. Second support is January’s low crossing at 6.22.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 6.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.58. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.26. Second support is January’s low crossing at 6.25.
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November soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.15 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. If November extends this month’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.15 1/2. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 10.55. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10.54.
December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 357.90 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this summer’s decline, January’s low crossing at 337.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 357.90. Second resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 366.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 340.00. Second support is January’s low crossing at 337.10.
December soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight following Wednesday’s upside reversal. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.75 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 35.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.75. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 35.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 35.87.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this summer’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 3854.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3988.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 3854.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3831.50.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight while extending this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 1942.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1984.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1942.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1936.00.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 140-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-04 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 138-27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 140-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-04.
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LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed down $3.00 at $124.57.
August hogs closed limit down on Wednesday. Today’s limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 123.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.25. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 132.82. First support is today’s low crossing at 124.57. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123.80.
August cattle closed up $0.10 at 156.05.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off this month’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 157.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146.80.
August feeder cattle closed up $1.22 at $217.25.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 219.25 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 204.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 218.37. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 219.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 207.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 204.85.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1258.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1316.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1316.30. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1346.80. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1292.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1258.00.
September silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 19.490 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 21.315 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.315. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.790. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 20.630. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 19.490.
September copper was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 329.45. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 308.61.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday 21/07/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Monday, July 21, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is declining 37 points to 16995. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.104 points to 80.566. Gold is higher 4.00 dollars to 1314.82. Silver is higher 0.096 dollars to 20.986. The Dow Industrials climbed 123.37 points, at 17100.18, while the S&P 500 trended higher 20.10 points, last seen at 1978.22. The Nasdaq Composite trended higher 67.21 points to 4430.66. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Monday
8:30 AM ET. June Chicago Fed National Activity Index
National Activity Index (previous 0.21)
3 Month Moving Average (previous 0.18)
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at 81.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 80.75. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.77. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.54.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with June’s low might have been posted with last Friday’s low. If September extends this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 134.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.07 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.07. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 137.05. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 134.93. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134.10.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.7050 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.7184. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1.7050. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6941.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, June’s low crossing at 1.1080 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1201 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1245. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1.1298. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1104. Second support is June’s low crossing at 1.1080.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.35. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 93.99. First support is the the 25% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 92.54. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 91.77.
The September Japanese Yen was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .9956. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
August Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2014-rally crossing at 97.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.57. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.09. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 99.01. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2014-rally crossing at 97.72.
August heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the June 2013 low crossing at 278.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 286.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.04. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 282.58. Second support is the June 2013 low crossing at 278.50.
August unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 280.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.61 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 290.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.61. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 285.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 280.40.
August Henry natural gas gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-June-rally crossing at 3.762 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.251 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.077. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.251. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.853. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 3.762.
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FOOD & FIBER
September coffee closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.11 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s rally, June’s high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. If September renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.31 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Close below the reaction low crossing at 30.40 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If September renews this spring’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 33.30 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this month’s decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-June rally crossing at 16.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.78 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 66.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
December corn gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends this summer’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, monthly support crossing at 3.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.87 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.72. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.48.
December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.05. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at 5.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 14 1/4-cents at 6.45 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday renewing the decline off May’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.84 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.58 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.84 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.45 3/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 6.22.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 6.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.68 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.47 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.68 1/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.35 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 6.25.
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November soybeans gapped down and was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bearish again signalin that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November renews this month’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.38 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.91 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.38 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 10.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10.54.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 364.50 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this summer’s decline, January’s low crossing at 337.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 364.50. Second resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 366.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 340.00. Second support is January’s low crossing at 337.10.
December soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 35.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.45 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.45. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 36.21. Second support is weekly support crossing at 35.87.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3874.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 3941.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3874.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3831.50.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1945.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 1978.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1945.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1936.00.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 140-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-24 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 138-23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 140-16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-24. Second support is July’s low crossing at 134-11.
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LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed down $1.77 at $127.07.
August hogs closed lower on Friday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 126.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 132.82. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 126.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123.80.
August cattle closed up $2.97 at 150.65.
August cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.46 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 146.80 would renew this month’s decline and would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 144.36. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 152.00. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 156.50. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 146.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 144.36.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $211.65.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday but remains below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 204.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 212.65 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 212.65. Second resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 219.25. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 207.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 204.85.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1318.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1258.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1318.90. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1346.80. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1292.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1258.00.
September silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.090 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 19.490 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.090. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.790. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 20.630. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 19.490.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July’s high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 323.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 323.39. Second resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 329.45. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 313.55. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 308.61.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 10/07/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, July 10, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is lower 139 points to 16774. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.086 points to 80.115. Gold has advanced 13.115 dollars to 1342.850. Silver has climbed 0.344 dollars to 21.510. The Dow Industrials rose 78.99 points, at 16985.61, while the S&P 500 moved higher by 9.12 points, last seen at 1972.83. The Nasdaq Composite gained 24.66 points to 4416.12. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 712.3K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 881.5K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 479.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 315K; previous 315K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +2K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2579000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +11K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories (expected +0.6%; previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.4%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1929B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +100B)
12:00 AM ET. June ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
U.S. Corn, Ending Stocks, Bushels
U.S. Soybeans, Ending Stocks, Bushels
U.S. Wheat, Ending Stocks, Bushels
2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
N/A Rocky Mountain Economic Summit
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.32 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 79.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.32. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.77. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.54.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 137.45 is the next upside target. If September renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 135.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.05. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 137.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.16. Second support is June’s low crossing at 135.05.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7035 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1.7170. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.7109. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.7035.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the May 9th gap crossing at 1.1376 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July’s high, June’s low crossing at 1.1080 is the next downside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 1.1298. Second resistance is the May 9th gap crossing at 1.1376. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1104. Second support is June’s low crossing at 1.1080.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews this spring’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 94.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 93.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 94.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.82.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, May’s low crossing at .9700 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .9862. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
August crude oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but reman neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 100.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.24. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 107.50.First support is today’s low crossing at 102.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 100.93.
August heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extend the decline off June’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month’s decline, June’s low crossing at 285.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.69 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.69. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 307.83. First support is today’s low crossing at 285.86. Second support is June’s low crossing at 285.38.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 50% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 290.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crosing at 304.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crosing at 304.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 311.93. First support is today’s low crossing at 293.59. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 290.89.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 4.091 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.494 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.494. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 4.893. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.129. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 4.091.
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FOOD & FIBER
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four weeks. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.31 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the reaction low crossing at 30.40 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If September extends this spring’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 33.30 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below June’s low crossing at 17.47 confirms a downside breakout of this year’s trading range and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.09 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 69.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
| New Law Passed Acknowledging Legitimacy of “Underground Banking”
Just days ago, California passed a law making a controversial new banking system legal within the state. This new banking system is already exploding across the globe. It even has its own ATMs up in cities all over the U.S. The best part of this type of “bank account”: You can actually make money with it. In fact, a simple deposit of $100 back when the system started in 2009 would have exploded into more than $3.5 million by November of last year. |
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GRAINS
December Corn closed down 6 1/4-cents at 3.98.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday and below psychologial support crossing at 4.00 as it extends the decline off May’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 3.48 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday’s gap crossing at 4.14 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s gap crossing at 4.14 1/2. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.22. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.95. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.48.
December wheat closed down 5 1/4-cents at 5.75.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.50 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.05 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.28 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 5.71 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.50 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 3/4-cents at 6.64.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.51 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.09 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.33 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.64 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.51 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 4-cents at 6.67.
December Minneapolis wheat close lower on Wednesday as it extends this summer’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.92 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.09. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.50 1/2.
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November soybeans closed down 12 1/2-cents at 11.03 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 10.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.62 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92. First support is today’s low crossing at 11.00 3/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 10.88 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $2.10 at 355.20.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 346.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 370.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.40. First support is today’s low cossing at 354.10. Second support is the 87% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 346.80.
December soybean oil closed down 67-pts. At 37.30.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday and posted a new contract low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 36.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.54. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 41.31. First support is today’s low crossing at 37.19. Second support is weekly support crossing at 36.80.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3829.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 3918.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3829.85. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 3791.75.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1952.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1978.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1952.19. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1936.00.
The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,887.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance last Thursday’s high crossing at 17,074.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,887.31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16,746.09.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds closed up 8/32’s at 136-27.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this week’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, June’s high crossing at 137-12 is the next upside target. If September renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 137-12. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 132-19.
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LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed down $0.25 at $129.60.
August hogs closed lower on Wednesday. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 126.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 132.82. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 126.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123.80.
August cattle closed down $2.72 at 150.80.
August cattle posted a key reversal down on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 152.27 signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 156.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today’s low crossing at 150.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.21.
August feeder cattle closed down $2.30 at $213.60.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 219.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.13. Second support is the June 24th gap crossing at 208.00.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1354.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 1334.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1354.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1258.00.
July silver closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 21.323 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.698 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.254. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 21.323. First support is the reaction low crossing at 20.705. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.698.
July copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off June’s low, February’s high crossing at 329.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 326.80. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 329.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 312.30.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday 08/07/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future has slipped 22 points to 16924. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.034 points to 80.257. Gold has gained 0.705 dollars to 1319.190. Silver has climbed 0.049 dollars to 21.054. The Dow Industrials softened 44.05 points, at 17024.21, while the S&P 500 moved down 7.79 points, last seen at 1977.65. The Nasdaq Composite softened 36.62 points to 4449.31. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Tuesday
7:30 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Optimism Index (expected 96.7; previous 96.6)
7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +1%)
Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +4.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
MoM % Change (previous -1.7%)
12MonChgPct (previous +3.3%)
52WkChgPct (previous +3.1%)
10:00 AM ET. May Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Monthly Net Change (expected +22B; previous +26.85B)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.88M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.41M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4.4M)
Refinery Runs (previous 89.9%)
N/A IMF World Economic Outlook
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 347.3)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -0.2%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 175.2)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -0.7%)
Refinance Index (previous 1323.9)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 384.94M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous -3.16M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 213.74M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.24M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 121.54M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.98M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.4%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 19.43M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.63M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 712.3K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 881.5K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 479.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 315K; previous 315K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +2K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2579000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +11K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories (expected +0.6%; previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.4%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1929B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +100B)
12:00 AM ET. June ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
U.S. Corn, Ending Stocks, Bushels
U.S. Soybeans, Ending Stocks, Bushels
U.S. Wheat, Ending Stocks, Bushels
2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
N/A Rocky Mountain Economic Summit
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.39 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 79.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.39. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.77. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.54.
The September Euro closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 135.16 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 137.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.05. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 137.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.16. Second support is June’s low crossing at 135.05.
The September British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6998 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1.7170. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.7077. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6998.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, June’s low crossing at 1.1080 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1222 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1222. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at .1298. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1104. Second support is June’s low crossing at 1.1080.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday but remains above the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If September extends this spring’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 94.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 93.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 94.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.82.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June’s high, May’s low crossing at .9700 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .9829. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
August crude oil closed lower on Monday extending the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but reman neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 100.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.32. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 107.50.First support is today’s low crossing at 103.19. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 100.93.
August heating oil closed lower on Monday extends the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month’s decline, June’s low crossing at 285.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.96 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.96. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 307.83. First support is today’s low crossing at 291.05. Second support is June’s low crossing at 285.38.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 295.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crosing at 304.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crosing at 304.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 311.93. First support is today’s low crossing at 298.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 295.88.
August Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 4.091 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.526 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.526. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 4.893. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.200. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 4.091.
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FOOD & FIBER
September coffee closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the reaction low crossing at 30.40 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If September extends this spring’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 33.30 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends this month’s decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June’s low crossing at 17.47 would confirm a downside breakout of this year’s trading range. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.21 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 69.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
December Corn closed down 9-cents at 4.06 1/4.
December corn gapped down and closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If today’s gap remain unfilled, it could marke a measuring gap to the downside and signal additional weakness is possible during July. If today’s gap is filled, it would signal that a short-term exhaustion gap has been posted and signal that an intrum low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May’s high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57 1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 4.03. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
December wheat closed down 23 1/4-cents at 5.80 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.28 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 5.80. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 17-cents at 6.80.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.51 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.17 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.33 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.79 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.51 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 11 1/4-cents at 6.71.
December Minneapolis wheat close lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.98 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.26 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.68 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.50 1/2.
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November soybeans closed down 8-cents at 11.25 1/2.
November soybeans gapped down and closed lower on Monday as it extends this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 11.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.03 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.86 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.03 1/2. First support is is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 11.13. Second support is January’s low crossing at 10.88 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.50 at 358.70.
December soybean meal closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 346.80 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 386.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 377.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 386.70. First support is today’s low cossing at 354.30. Second support is the 87% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 346.80.
December soybean oil closed down 26-pts. At 38.51.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this month’s decline, February’s low crossing at 37.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.83. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 41.31. First support is today’s low crossing at 38.26. Second support is February’s low crossing at 37.72.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of this year’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3821.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 3918.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 4258.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3860.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3821.99.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1950.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1978.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1950.13. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1936.00.
The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,888.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance last Thursday’s high crossing at 17,074.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,883.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16,746.09.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds closed up 22/32’s at 135-22.
September T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 136-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 137-12. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 132-19.
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LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed up $0.22 at $131.82.
August hogs closed higher on Monday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 126.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 132.82. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 126.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123.80.
August cattle closed down $0.05 at 154.95.
August cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 156.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.33.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.37 at $218.00.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends this year’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 210.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 219.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 214.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 210.09.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1354.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 1334.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1354.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1288.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1258.00.
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 21.323 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.508 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 21.254. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 21.323. First support is the reaction low crossing at 20.705. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.508.
July copper closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June’s low, February’s high crossing at 329.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 326.80. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 329.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 312.30.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 27/06/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Friday, June 27, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is down 28 points to 16734. The US Dollar Index edged lower 0.041 points to 80.171. Gold is declining 1.33 dollars to 1315.05. Silver is down 0.0235 dollars to 21.0525. The Dow Industrials edged lower 21.38 points, at 16846.13, while the S&P 500 edged lower 2.31 points, last seen at 1957.22. The Nasdaq Composite moved down 2.69 points to 4377.07. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Friday
9:55 AM ET. June Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 81.6; previous 81.9)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 73.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 94.5)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M (previous -0.9%)
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.58. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 80.06. Second support is May’s low crossing at 79.05.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 136.79 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.34. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09.
The September British Pound was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6887 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1.7051. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6987. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6887.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.1235 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1235. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1248. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1080. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, January’s high crossing at 93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 93.47. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.08.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9799 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .9931. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
August Nymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 107.50. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 112.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 100.93.
August heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thusday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 310.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 307.83. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 310.63. First support is the reaction low crossing at 298.49. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.15.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.20 would confirm that a top has been posted. If August resumes this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 311.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 305.56. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.20.
August Henry natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 4.339 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.608 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 4.893. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.891. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.339. Second support is May’s low crossing at 4.296.
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FOOD & FIBER
September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 19.97 is the next upside target. If September renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.31 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the 25% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 30.09 is the next downside target. Close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 18.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends this week’s decline, weekly support crossing at 72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
December corn was fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December resumes this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 4.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.79 1/4. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.36 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.35.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May’s high, this year’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.24 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.24 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.98 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-cents at 7.18.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.79 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.28 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.27 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.49 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.10 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.79 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.75 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.26 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.26 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.34 1/2. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.92 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.75 1/4.
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November soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 12.52 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.23 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 12.46 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.52 1/4. First support is June’s low crossing at 12.01 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 11.84.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Thursday’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 402.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 383.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 402.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 406.70. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 386.20. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 383.20.
December soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 41.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 41.31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 41.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.44. Second support is June’s low crossing at 39.76.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3779.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 3828.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3779.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3744.75.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1937.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1959.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1937.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1919.20.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, May’s high crossing at 138-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-23 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137-14. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134-15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30.
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LIVESTOCK
August hogs closed up $0.15 at $128.80.
August hogs closed higher on Thursday. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 132.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 126.15.
August cattle closed up $2.10 at 152.75.
August cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 152.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.61.
August feeder cattle closed up $3.00 at $215.12.
August Feeder cattle closed limit up on Thursday as it extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 215.12. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.96.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off this month’s low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1334.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1280.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 1326.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1334.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1304.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1280.50.
July silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.851 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 21.205. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.605. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.851.
July copper was unchanged overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May’s high crossing at 319.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 317.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 319.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.47. Second support is June’s low crossing at 300.85.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 26/06/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, June 26, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is dropping 3 points to 16768. The US Dollar Index advanced 0.045 points to 80.245. Gold is down 7.435 dollars to 1310.610. Silver has retreated 0.1145 dollars to 20.8700. The Dow Industrials climbed 49.38 points, at 16867.51, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 9.55 points, last seen at 1959.53. The Nasdaq Composite moved up 31.03 points to 4381.39. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 314K; previous 312K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -6K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2561000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -54K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 187.9K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 383.7K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 380.8K)
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)
Personal Spending (expected +0.4%; previous -0.1%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.6%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.4%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.1%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1719B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +113B)
11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Manufacturing Activity Index (previous 14)
Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 18)
Manufacturing Composite Index (previous 10)
6-Month Composite Expectations Index (previous 13)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window
9:55 AM ET. June Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 81.6; previous 81.9)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 73.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 94.5)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M (previous -0.9%)
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.60. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 80.06. Second support is May’s low crossing at 79.05.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 136.79 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.34. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09.
The September British Pound was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6874 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1.7051. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6981. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6874.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.1235 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1235. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1248. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1080. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-+2014-decline crossing at 93.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 93.23. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.00.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9797 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .9931. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
August Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 107.50. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 112.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.49. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 100.93.
August heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 310.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 307.83. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 310.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.49. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.58.
August unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 300.57 would confirm that a top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 311.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 300.57.
August Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.620 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 4.339 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 4.893. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.891. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.339. Second support is May’s low crossing at 4.296.
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FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed higher on Wednesday extending the rally off last week’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 18.29 is the next upside target. If July renews this spring’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.61 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week’s decline, the 25% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 30.25 is the next downside target. Close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.09 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
July sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 18.28 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If July extends this week’s decline, the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 80.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 4.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.79 1/4. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.36 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.35.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May’s high, this year’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.27 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.27 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.98 1/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.77 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 7.19.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.79 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.30 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.49 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.10 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.79 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.75 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.26 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.26 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.34 1/2. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.92 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.75 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off June’s low, the reaction high crossing at 12.52 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.23 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 12.43 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.52 1/4. First support is June’s low crossing at 12.01 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 11.84.
December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 383.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 395.30 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 392.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 395.30. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 386.20. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 383.20.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 41.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 41.31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 41.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.34. Second support is June’s low crossing at 39.67.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3775.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 3828.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3775.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3744.75.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1935.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1959.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1935.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1919.20.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 137-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137-14. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134-15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30.
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LIVESTOCK
July hogs closed down $1.12 at $129.30.
July hogs closed lower on Wednesday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above May’s high mark an upside breakout of this spring’s ascending triangle extending the rally off last year’s low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 131.15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.14. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.03.
August cattle closed up $0.92 at 150.65.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 152.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.95.
August feeder cattle closed up $1.50 at $212.12.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 212.35. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.05.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off this month’s low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1334.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1276.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 1326.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1334.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1299.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1276.60.
July silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.719 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 21.170. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.439. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.719.
July copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May’s high crossing at 319.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 317.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 319.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.23. Second support is June’s low crossing at 300.85.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Friday, June 20, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future has climbed 0 points to 16833. The US Dollar Index rose 0.094 points to 80.413. Gold has eased 2.205 dollars to 1310.890. Silver has gained 0.01995 dollars to 20.73000. The Dow Industrials edged higher by 14.84 points, at 16921.46, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 2.50 points, last seen at 1959.48. The Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 5.30 points to 4357.54. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Friday
10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
N/A Obama meets New Zealander PM Key at the White House
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.06 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.69. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 81.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 80.06. Second support is May’s low crossing at 79.05.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 136.79 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 136.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6827 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 1.7051. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6900. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6827.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.1235 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1235. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1248. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1080. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-+2014-decline crossing at 93.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday’s low crossing at 91.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 92.31. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 91.09. Second support is May’s low crossing at 90.46.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .9931. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
July Nymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 107.68. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 112.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 101.60.
July heating oil was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 310.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 307.11. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 310.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 298.14. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.94.
July unleaded gas was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.43 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 313.74. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.43.
July Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 4.504 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.645 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 4.886. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.915. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.504. Second support is May’s low crossing at 4.297.
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FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 32.48 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.81 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
July sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week’s rally, May’s high crossing at 18.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday consolidating some of the rally off May’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 95.10 is the next upside target.
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GRAINS
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.54 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.54 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.73 1/2. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.35 1/2. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.08 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, this year’s low crossing at 5.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 5.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.08 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 5.81 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.72 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 7.29 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week’s rally, last Friday’s high crossing at 7.36 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May’s high, the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 7.29 1/4. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 7.36. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.04 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. However, the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 7.18 is the next upside target. If July renews this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.53 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.83 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.56.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 13.58 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.57 1/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 13.93 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 13.58 1/4.
July soybean meal was steady overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off June’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 444.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 481.50 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 465.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 481.50. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 448.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 435.50.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 41.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 40.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 41.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 38.29. Second support is June’s low crossing at 37.76.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3755.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 3803.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3755.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3700.25.
The September S&P 500 was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1926.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1952.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1926.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1907.80.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-28. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134-15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30.
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LIVESTOCK
July hogs closed up $2.62 at $128.05.
July hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday thereby renewing this month’s rally. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 128.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above May’s high would also confirm an upside breakout of this spring’s ascending triangle thereby renewing the rally off last year’s low. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 128.10. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 128.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.92. Second support is June’s low crossing at 119.60.
August cattle closed up $2.45 at 147.47.
August cattle gapped up and closed higher on Thursday to post a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 148.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 148.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 148.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.73.
August feeder cattle closed up $2.70 at $207.55.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Thursday ending a two-day correction. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 210.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 205.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.04.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off this month’s low, April’s high crossing at 1331.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1266.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1322.50. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 1331.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1266.30. Second support is June’s low crossing at 1240.20.
July silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.337 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 20.925. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 21.323. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.713. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.337.
July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off May’s high, May’s low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.27. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 319.25. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 300.85. Second support is May’s low crossing at 300.30.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 19/06/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, June 19, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is declining 2 points to 16816. The US Dollar Index fell 0.185 points to 80.219. Gold has climbed 5.315 dollars to 1282.290. Silver is higher 0.1009 dollars to 19.9709. The Dow Industrials rose 98.13 points, at 16906.62, while the S&P 500 moved up 14.99 points, last seen at 1956.98. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 25.17 points to 4362.40. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 282.3K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 55K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 445.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 312K; previous 317K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +4K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2614000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +11K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.6%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 13.3; previous 15.4)
Prices Paid (previous 23)
Employment (previous 7.8)
New Orders (previous 10.5)
Prices Received (previous 17)
Delivery Times (previous -4.2)
Inventories (previous -0.5)
Shipments (previous 14.2)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.3%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1606B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +107B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window
10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
N/A Obama meets New Zealander PM Key at the White House
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.06 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May’s low, the 87% retracement level of the January-May-decline crossing at 81.41. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.17. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-May-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the reaction low crossing at 80.37. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.06.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.12.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6811 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1.6997. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6811. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6680.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.1235 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1235. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at .11503. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1080. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September renews the decline off the late-May high, May’s low crossing at 90.46 is the next downside target. If September extends this spring’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.18. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 91.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 90.46.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May’s high, May’s low crossing at .9700 is the next downside target. If September extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at .9925 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9865. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
July crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 107.68. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 112.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 101.60.
July heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 310.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.96 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 304.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 310.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.96. Second support is June’s low crossing at 284.55.
July unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crosing at 300.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 311.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 300.02. Second support is June’s low crossing at 292.02.
July Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 4.504 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May’s low, February’s high crossing at 4.915 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 4.886. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.915. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 4.504. Second support is May’s low crossing at 4.297.
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FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 32.48 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.73 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
July sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.13 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends today’s rally, May’s high crossing at 18.28 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May’s high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 16.51 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last week’s low, May’s high crossing at 95.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS
July Corn closed up 2 3/4-cents at 4.41 1/2.
July corn closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.35 1/2. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4.
July wheat closed up 5 1/4-cents at 5.87.
July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May’s high, January’s low crossing at 5.57 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/5. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 5.76 3/4. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.57 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 15 1/4-cents at 7.27 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.25 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.25 1/4. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 7.36. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.04 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up 13 1/2-cents at 6.97 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat close higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.02 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.18. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.76 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.56.
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July soybeans closed up 10 3/4-cents at 14.09.
July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as they consolidate some of the decline off May’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 13.84 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.35 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 13.93 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 13.84 3/4.
July soybean meal closed up $2.50 at 453.20.
July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 435.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 486.30 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 486.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 460.70. First support is today’s low cossing at 448.60. Second support is the 38% retracement of this year’s rally crossing at 435.50.
July soybean oil closed up 45-pts. At 40.13.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher pricdes are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 41.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 40.29. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 41.39. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 38.29. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 37.76.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3739.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 3799.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 3749.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3739.31.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1918.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1943.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1919.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1918.88.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,751.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance last Monday’s high crossing at 16,970.17. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,751.97. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16,341.30.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds closed up 23/32’s at 135-25.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 138-10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 140-16. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 133-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 132-19.
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LIVESTOCK
July hogs closed up $0.50 at $125.42.
July hogs closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 128.30 is the next upside target. Multiple closes above May’s high would also confirm an upside breakout of this spring’s ascending triangle thereby renewing the rally off last year’s low. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 127.20. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 128.30. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 118.10. Second support is April’s low crossing at 114.65.
August cattle closed down $0.70 at 145.02.
August cattle closed lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday’s key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 148.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 148.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.33.
August feeder cattle closed down $3.00 at $204.85.
August Feeder cattle closed limit down on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 210.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.49.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1264.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 1304.10 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1237.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1285.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1304.10. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1237.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1212.80.
July silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 20.005 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.217 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 19.875. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 20.005. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.217. Second support is the reaction low low crossing at 18.615.
July copper closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.76 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May’s high, May’s low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.76. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 319.25. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 300.85. Second support is May’s low crossing at 300.30.
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Wednesday 18/06/2014
Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is up 2 points to 16731. The US Dollar Index moved lower 0.042 points to 80.560. Gold has climbed 1.03 dollars to 1271.25. Silver has advanced 0.00955 dollars to 19.75755. The Dow Industrials rose 27.48 points, at 16808.49, while the S&P 500 moved up 4.21 points, last seen at 1941.99. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 15.90 points to 4337.01. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Wednesday
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 387.1)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous +10.3%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 187.5)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous +9.3%)
Refinance Index (previous 1528.9)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +11%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (expected -97B; previous -81.12B)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 386.93M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.6M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 213.48M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 118.95M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.86M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 18.03M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous -0.56M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
# of Total FOMC Officials Voting (previous 16)
Year 1 (previous 2014)
# of Votes for Yr 1 Forecast (previous 15)
Year 1 Target Rate at Year-End (previous 0.25)
Year 2 (previous 2015)
# of Votes for Yr 2 Forecast (previous 11)
Year 2 Target Rate at Year-End (previous 1)
Year 3 (previous 2016)
# of Votes for Yr 3 Forecast (previous 9)
Year 3 Target Rate at Year-End (previous 2.25)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Janet Yellen press briefing
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Federal Funds Rate (Dir) (previous +0)
Discount Rate
Discount Rate Change
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
High Range Value (Current Period)
Low Range Value
Federal Funds Rate Change High Range (previous 0.25)
Federal Funds Rate Change Low Range (previous 0)
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CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May’s low, the 87% retracement level of the January-May-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.17. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-May-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.37.
The September Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.01 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 136.77. First support is the reaction low crossing at 135.02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 134.09.
The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6810 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1.6997. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7308. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6810. Second support is May’s low crossing at 1.6680.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.1235 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1235. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.1248. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1080. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 1.1042.
The September Canadian Dollar was unchanged overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearsh hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 91.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends last week’s rally, May’s high crossing at 92.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is May’s high crossing at 92.18. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 93.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 91.00. Second support is May’s low crossing at 90.46.
The September Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above .9931 or below .9595 to confirm a breakout of a five-month old trading range. First resistance is May’s high crossing at .9925. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .9931. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9734. Second support is May’s low crossing at .9700.
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ENERGIES
July Nymex crude oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 107.68. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 112.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.24. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 101.60.
July heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, March’s high crossing at 303.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 302.95. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 303.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.88. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 284.55.
July unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.99 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 311.23. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 302.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.99.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May’s low, February’s high crossing at 4.915 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 4.886. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 4.915. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 4.504. Second support is May’s low crossing at 4.297.
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FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April’s high, the 62% retracement level of this winter’s rally crossing at 15.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 32.48 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off May’s high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 16.51 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last week’s low, the reaction high crossing at 90.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS
July corn was higher overnight due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish. If July extends this spring’s decline, January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.35 1/2. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.21 3/4.
July wheat was higher overnight due to short covering overnight as it consolidated recent losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May’s high, this year’s low crossing at 5.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 5.81 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.72 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 1/4-cents at 7.12 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.27 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.27 1/4. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 7.36. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.04 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 6.95.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.01 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.01 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.18. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.83 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 6.56.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off May’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 13.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 3/4. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 15.36 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 13.93 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 13.77 1/2.
July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off June’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 444.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 486.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 486.40. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 509.40. First support is the overnight low crossing at 448.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 444.50.
July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last Friday’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 41.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 38.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 40.14. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 41.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 37.76. Second support is February’s low crossing at 37.47.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3739.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 3799.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3862.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3739.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3700.25.
The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1918.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1943.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1918.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1859.90.
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INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. September renews the decline off May’s high, the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-29. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 138-10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134-15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 133-30.
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LIVESTOCK
July hogs closed up $0.67 at $124.92.
July hogs closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 128.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 127.20. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 128.30. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2013-2014-rally crossing at 118.10. Second support is April’s low crossing at 114.65.
August cattle closed down $0.72 at 145.72.
August cattle posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 148.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 148.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.09.
August feeder cattle closed down $0.85 at $207.85.
August Feeder cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 210.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.04.
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PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at 1304.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1264.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1285.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1304.10. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1237.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1212.80.
July silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s rally, May’s high crossing at 20.005 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.212 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 19.875. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 20.005. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.212. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 18.615.
July copper was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, May’s low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.72. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 319.25. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 300.85. Second support is May’s low crossing at 300.30.
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