Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday

F R I D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, November 30, 2012
8:30 AM ET. Oct Personal Income & Outlays

Personal Income (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)

Personal Spending (previous +0.8%)

PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0.4%)

PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.7%)

PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.7%)

9:45 AM ET. Nov ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI

Employment Index (previous 50.3)

New Orders Index (previous 50.6)

Prices Paid Index (previous 59.3)

Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 50; previous 49.9)

Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 50.4)

1:00 PM ET. Nov Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
November’s low and is trading above the 50% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 2682.62. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 2727.37 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2609.60
would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November’s
high crossing at 2694.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 2727.37. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2609.60. Second support is November’s low crossing
at 2492.00.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends the rally off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 1431.40 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
1390.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at 1419.40. Second resistance is November’s high
crossing at 1431.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1390.00. Second support is November’s low crossing at 1340.30.

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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

March T-bonds were higher overnight and poised to renew the rally off last
Friday’s. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off last
Friday’s low, November’s high crossing at 151-10 is the next upside target.
Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 148-11 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness
into early-December. First resistance is November’s high crossing at 151-10.
Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 153-11. First support is last
Friday’s low crossing at 148-11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
146-08.

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy

January crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading
range of the past five weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January
renews the decline off September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 82.36 is the next downside target. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 89.80 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 89.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.98. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 84.53. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.36.

January heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the
trading range of the past five weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.08 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for sideways to lower
prices into early-December. If January renews November’s rally, the reaction
high crossing at 318.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is
November’s high crossing at 318.00. Second resistance is October’s high
crossing at 321.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
302.08. Second support is November’s low crossing at 293.87.

January unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below
the September-October downtrend line crossing near 273.38. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the
aforementioned downtrend line would open the door for a possible test of
October’s high crossing at 282.41. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 266.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and
would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the
September-October downtrend line crossing near 273.38. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 282.41. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 266.65. Second support is November’s low crossing at 253.24.

January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher due to light short
covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Friday’s
high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week’s decline,
November’s low crossing at 3.598 is the next downside target. Closes above the
10-day moving average crossing at 3.859 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.802.
Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.859. First support
is the overnight low crossing at 3.622. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 3.598.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off
November’s high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December renews the
aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 79.72 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.78 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 80.78. Second resistance is November’s high crossing
at 81.51. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.72. Second support
is October’s low crossing at 78.97.

The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
December extends the aforementioned rally, October’s high crossing at 131.47 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
128.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the overnight high crossing at 130.31. Second resistance is October’s high
crossing at 131.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
128.31. Second support is November’s low crossing at 126.65.

The December British Pound was higher overnight while extending this week’s
trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If December
extends the rally off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 1.6173 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5955
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
November’s high crossing at 1.6173. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1.6213. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5955. Second support is November’s low crossing at 1.5822.

The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight and is poised to renew the
rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
renews the aforementioned rally, October’s high crossing at .10861 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10650 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at .10837. Second is October’s high crossing at .10861.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10650. Second support
is November’s low crossing at .10517.

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and challenging resistance
marked by the September-October downtrend line crossing near 100.68.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the September-October downtrend
line crossing near 100.68 are needed to confirm a trend change has taken place.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.25 would signal that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the aforementioned
downtrend line crossing near 100.68. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 101.18. First support is the 50% retracement level of the
June-October rally crossing at 99.51. Second support is the 62% retracement
level of the June-October rally crossing at 98.55.

The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight signaling that the corrective
rally off last week’s low has ended. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .12349 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off
September’s high, March’s low crossing at .11980 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .12194. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .12349. First support is
the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at .12102.
Second support is March’s low crossing at .11980.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

February gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of Wednesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If February extends this week’s
decline, November’s low crossing at 1674.70 is the next downside target.
Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1734.10 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 1757.10. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1776.90. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1707.90.
Second support is November’s low crossing at 1674.70.

March silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 35.200 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.960 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 35.200. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at
35.510. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.730. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.960.

March copper was higher overnight and is testing the 50% retracement level
of the September-November decline crossing at 363.17. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rebound off November’s low,
the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 368.32
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
351.08 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 363.17. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at 368.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
351.09. Second support is November’s low crossing at 341.45

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 15 points at 19.31 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
in a bullish posture for sugar today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Sugar
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage.

March coffee closed up 30 points at 155.15 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in
a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a 22-month low. There
was not good follow-through buying interest today and a
bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart was not
confirmed. The coffee bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-

week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

March cocoa closed up $32 at $2,490 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today on more short covering. The cocoa
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field.

March cotton closed up 61 points at 73.24 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
five-week high. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Today’s price
action did produce what could be a bullish upside
“breakout” from the recent choppy and sideways trading
range. Cotton bulls and bears are now back on a level near-

term technical playing field.

January orange juice closed up 50 points at $1.2375 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
are now fading a bit.

January lumber futures closed up $1.40 at $340.50 today.
Prices hit another fresh contract and 6.5-year high today
and then backed off to close near the session low. Some
better U.S. economic data recently has helped to fuel the
lumber bulls. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

March corn was lower overnight as it extends Thursday’s decline following a
disappointing weekly export sales report. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.43
1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off
November’s low, October’s high crossing at 7.75 3/4 is the next upside target.
First resistance is October’s high crossing at 7.75 3/4. Second resistance is
the 62% retracement level of the August-September decline crossing at 7.92 3/4.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.43 1/4. Second support
is November’s low crossing at 7.14 1/4.

March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the reaction
high crossing at 9.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March
renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-July rally
crossing at 8.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 8.95 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
9.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.70. Second
support is November’s low crossing at 8.45.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 9.35.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of
this week’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally,
November’s high crossing at 9.55 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.07 3/4 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 9.39.
Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 9.55 1/2. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 9.07 3/4. Second support is last Monday’s low
crossing at 8.92 1/2. Second support is August’s low crossing at 8.89 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
rally off November’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 9.74
1/4. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.34 1/4 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high
crossing at 9.57. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 9.74 1/4.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.34 1/4. Second support
is November’s low crossing at 9.16 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

January soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.42 3/4 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews this fall’s
decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at
13.15 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.42 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 15.23. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September
rally crossing at 13.82 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 13.15 1/2.

January soybean meal was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 437.70 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off
November’s high, the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing
at 396.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 437.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
469.70. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 421.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 396.40.

January soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If January extends this rally, the 38%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 51.42 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.87
would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 51.42. Second
resistance is October’s high crossing at 52.85. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 48.87. Second support is November’s low crossing at
46.89.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.47 at
$132.12 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the cattle
market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were higher. Cattle bulls have the overall near-

term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. A bull flag pattern has also
formed on the daily bar chart for cattle futures.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.67 at $146.75 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in
a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage.

February lean hogs closed down $0.45 at $87.12 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and also scored
a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
The hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart.

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T H A N K   Y O U
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Copyright 2012 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Annunci

There is Medication for That – 11/30/2012

Some investors are still too hyperactive when it comes to each negative headline about the Fiscal Cliff. Such was the case mid-day Thursday when John Boehner said that no progress was being made.

That statement had shares rapidly on the decline. Yet in virtually no time investors saw that as another buying opportunity with stocks soaring to the highest close since the election.

Where do we go from here?

I suspect the 50 day moving average of 1423 caps the high end until the Cliff is resolved. Yet given that the economy continues to roll along (as evidenced by Q3 GDP ratcheting up to +2.7%) and a Cliff resolution will likely be passed, then best to keep a bullish posture.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity… pronounced “Righty”)
Executive VP, Zacks Investment Research

ADVFN – Report dei Mercati 30 nov 2012

 

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MERCATO USA
Wall Street chiude in rialzo, Dow Jones sopra quota 13 mila

A New York i principali indici hanno terminato la seduta in rialzo. Il Dow Jones evidenzia un progresso dello 0,28% a 13.021 punti e il Nasdaq Composite dello 0,68%. Wall Street ha beneficiato di alcuni dati macroeconomici pubblicati in giornata. Il Pil del terzo trimestre è stato rivisto al rialzo a +2,7% da +2% mentre le nuove richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione sono risultate in calo. Buone indicazioni anche dal mercato immobiliare con l‘indice Pending home sales salito a ottobre del 5,2%, decisamente meglio delle attese.
I mercati Usa sono stati solo parzialmente zavorrati dalle parole di John Boehner. Il presidente della Camera ha detto che sul fiscal cliff non sono stati fatti significativi passi avanti.  

Sul fronte societario acquisti su Walt Disney (+1,06%). Il gruppo entertainment ha aumentato il dividendo del 25%. Bene Research in Motion (+3,96%). Goldman Sachs ha alzato il rating sul produttore del Blackberry a buy.
Poco mossa Nike (-0,16%). Hsbc ha alzato il rating sul gruppo dell’abbigliamento sportivo ad outperform da neutral.
Male Tiffany (-6,17%) dopo aver annunciato ricavi e utili trimestrali inferiori alle attese. Le vendite del terzo trimestre 2012 sono salite del 4% ma i profitti sono calati del 30% a 63 milioni di dollari, contro i 90 dello stesso periodo del 2011. La società si attende ora utili compresi tra 3,20 e 3,40 dollari rispetto alla precedente previsione di 3,55-3,70. Ridotta anche la guidance per l’anno corrente. Il titolo della nota gioielleria crolla nel pre-market a -12%.
In calo Intel (-2,79%). Goldman Sachs ha tagliato il target price sul gruppo dei semiconduttori a 16 dollari da 20 dollari.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Ancora un rialzo per il Nikkei

Borsa nipponica positiva anche in chiusura di settimana. Il Nikkei ha archiviato le contrattazioni odierne in crescita dello 0,48% a quota 9446,01 facendo registrare il rialzo mensile piu’ alto dallo scorso giugno.

L’indebolimento dello yen nei confronti delle altre principali valute a seguito della decisione del governo in favore di un nuovo intervento di stimoli a sostegno dell’economia prima ancora delle prossime elezioni, ha favorito gli acquisti sui titoli delle societa’ esportatrici permettendo ai listini di chiudere in territorio positivo.
Il rialzo odierno e’ stato agevolato anche dal buon dato macro relativo alla Produzione Industriale. Il Ministero dell’Economia, del Commercio e dell’Industria giapponese ha infatti comunicato questa mattina la lettura preliminare sulla Produzione Industriale di ottobre. Tale rilevazione si e’ attestata al +1,8% m/m battendo le stime degli addetti ai lavori fissate su un valore negativo del dato (-1,8%) e in deciso miglioramento rispetto alla rilevazione precedente pari a -4,1%. Rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2011 i livelli di produzione sono scesi del 4,3%, meno del consensus pari a -8,0% e della rilevazione precedente pari a -8,1%.
Molti i dati macro comunicati questa mattina. In ottobre il Tasso di Disoccupazione giapponese e’ risultato pari a +4,2% invariato rispetto al dato rilevato nel mese precedente ed in linea con le stime degli analisti. Il numero di nuove offerte di lavoro è salito dello 0,3% in ottobre rispetto al mese precedente.
Il Ministero degli Affari Interni e delle Comunicazioni ha reso noto il dato relativo all‘inflazione “core”, ovvero al netto dei cibi freschi. Nel mese di ottobre tale rilevazione ha fatto segnare un calo dello 0,5% su base annuale (consensus -0,4%). Il dato totale sull’inflazione nazionale e’ risultato invariato, in lieve miglioramento rispetto alla rilevazione precedente e poco superiore alle attese (-0,1%). Il valore rimane ancora distante dall’obiettivo di inflazione dell’1,00% fissato dalla Bank of Japan, dimostrando come l’economia giapponese sia ancora intrappolata in un ciclo deflazionistico. La spesa delle famiglie ha evidenziato, nel mese di ottobre, un calo dello 0,1% su base annuale, risultando comunque migliore sia rispetto alla rilevazione precedente che alle aspettative degli economisti, entrambe fissate su un valore pari a  -0,9% a/a.
Il dato relativo ai Nuovi Cantieri edili residenziali e’ salito del 25,2% su base annuale, facendo registrare una crescita nettamente superiore alle attese degli analisti che avevano stimato un incremento del 10,1%. Gli ordinativi di nuove costruzioni sono cresciuti del 29,1% nello stesso periodo.
Markit ha infine reso noto che l’Indice PMI manifatturiero Nomura/JMMA giapponese e’ sceso in novembre ai minimi degli ultimi 19 mesi, a quota 46,5, in lieve calo rispetto alla precedente rilevazione pari a 46,9 punti. L’indice si allontana dai 50 punti, indicando un ulteriore deterioramento delle performance del settore manifatturiero giapponese.

Tra i migliori titoli del listino Nikon, Nisshin Steel e Tosoh Corp mentre hanno ceduto terreno Softbank e Furukawa Electric.

Segno positivo sulle altre principali piazze azionarie asiatiche ad Hong Kong in crescita di mezzo punto percentuale cosi’ come a Shanghai (+0,85%) mentre Seul ha chiuso poco sotto la parita’ (-0,11%)


MERCATI EUROPEI
Borse europee sulla parità

Avvio poco mosso per le principali Borse europee. Il Dax30 di Francoforte guadagna lo 0,05%, il Cac40 di Parigi lo 0,2%, l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,06%. Poco sotto la parità il Ftse100 di Londra (-0,04%).

Secondo Moody’s la recessione nell’eurozona terminerà nel 2013. Il Pil nell’area Ue il prossimo anno dovrebbe crescere dello 0,2% contro il –0,5% atteso nel 2012.

Sul fronte societario ben comprata Lvmh (+2,2%). Goldman Sachs ha alzato il rating sul gruppo del lusso a buy da neutral. Sale HeidelbergCement (+2%) in scia all’upgrade da parte di Morgan Stanley. Il broker ha migliorato la raccomandazione sul gruppo del cemento a overweight da equal weight.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari appena sotto la parità

Il Ftse Mib segna -0,2%, il Ftse Italia All-Share -0,2%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,1%, il Ftse Italia Star -0,1%. Borse europee poco mosse in avvio. Ieri sera l’S&P 500 ha terminato a +0,43%, il Nasdaq a +0,68%. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in sostanziale pareggio. A Tokyo l’indice Nikkei 225 ha chiuso a +0,48%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng ha fatto segnare +0,49%. Inizio di giornata in leggero ribasso a Milano dopo il rally della seduta precedente.

In rosso Buzzi Unicem (-2,7%) a causa della decisione di Morgan Stanley di peggiorare la raccomandazione sul titolo a “underweight” (sottopesare rispetto al benchmark). Debole anche Telecom Italia (-2%) su cui Nomura ha incrementato il prezzo obiettivo, confermando però la raccomandazione “reduce”. In territorio negativo Tod’s (-1,1%): Goldman Sachs ha peggiorato la raccomandazione sul titolo da “buy” (acquistare) a “neutral”. Ancora tonici i bancari con BP Emilia Romagna (+1,1%) e Banca MPS (+1,5%) in evidenza: spread e rendimento del Btp decennale stazionano in prossimità dei minimi da circa due anni. Sale ancora Ansaldo STS (+0,5%) in scia alla decisione di Societe Generale di alzare il prezzo obiettivo sul titolo a 10 euro contro i 6,8 circa attuali.


TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Ottima chiusura di seduta per Eni che fa registrare i massimi degli ultimi due mesi andando a ricoprire il gap lasciato aperto a settembre a quota 18,24. Il titolo sta premendo sulla parte superiore del canale che sale dai minimi dello scorso mese, riferimento a 18,35 circa, il cui superamento introdurrebbe un nuovo test delle ostiche resistenze in area 18,80. Il successo su tali ostacoli disegnerebbe uno scenario del tutto nuovo e positivo per Eni, in ottica di lungo periodo, prospettandone il raggiungimento degli obiettivi a 23,00 euro circa. Primi segnali di cedimento invece in caso di discese sotto 17,50 per 17,00 euro, baluardo la cui violazione introdurrebbe l’affondo verso quota 16,00.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire oltre 18,80 per 23,00 euro, stop sotto 18,00.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 17,50 per il target a 18,80 euro.

Lottomatica ha testato a piu’ riprese nel corso dell’ultimo mese il supporto offerto dalla media mobile a 100 giorni, attualmente in transito a 16,60. L’indicatore si e’ dimostrato in grado di interpretare correttamente il trend rialzista disegnato dai minimi di novembre 2011, fintanto che esso si manterra’ al di sotto dei prezzi con funzione di supporto le aspettative saranno in favore del proseguimento dell’uptrend. Oltre 17,55 vi sarebbe una indicazione favorevole al recupero del top di ottobre a 18,35. Resistenza successiva a 18,80. Sotto area 16,60 probabile invece l’avvio di una fase correttiva a ritracciamento di tutta la salita dell’ultimo anno con obiettivi a 15,30 e 14,30, rispettivamente 38,2% e 50% di ritorno (quote derivate dalla successione di Fibonacci) dell’ascesa da quota 10,32.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo intervenire oltre 17,55 per il test 18,35, stop sotto 17,30.
Per chi gia’ possiede il titolo mantenere sotto 16,60 lo stop per le posizioni in essere. Oltre 17,55 incrementare per 18,35.

Il tentativo di recupero che Saipem ha messo a segno da metà novembre si è arrestato in area 34,00 euro, al contatto con la linea di tendenza di lungo periodo tracciata a partire dai minimi dell’ottobre 2011, recentemente violata al ribasso ed ora ardua resistenza. Fino a quando i prezzi non si saranno lasciati alle spalle questo limite, il movimento in atto dovrà pertanto essere considerato come un semplice “return move”, non certamente risolutivo per invertire il trend ribassista degli ultimi due mesi. Primi segnali di rimbalzo giungerebbero oltre 34,40, conferme alla rottura di 35,95 (media mobile a 200 giorni e livello pari al 50% di ritracciamento del ribasso da settembre). Oltre 36,90 sarà lecito considerare risolta la fase negativa permettendo di guardare nuovamente ai massimi annuali a 40,12 euro. Al contrario, sotto 33,00 euro probabile ritorno a 31,80 almeno.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire oltre 34,40 euro con stop sotto 33,80 per i target a 35,95 e 36,90 euro.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere aperte le posizioni sopra 33,00 per i target a 35,95, 36,90 e 40,12 euro.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Venerdì 30 novembre
00:15 GIA Indice PMI manifatturiero nov;
00:30 GIA Consumi ott;
00:30 GIA Inflazione ott;
00:30 GIA Tasso di disoccupazione ott;
00:50 GIA Produzione industriale ott;
08:00 GER Vendite al dettaglio ott;
08:45 FRA Consumi ott;
09:00 SPA Inflazione nov;
10:00 ITA Tasso di disoccupazione ott;
11:00 EUR Inflazione flash nov;
11:00 EUR Tasso di disoccupazione ott;
11:00 ITA Inflazione (prelim.) nov;
12:00 ITA Indice prezzi alla produzione ott;
14:30 USA Deflatore consumi ott;
14:30 USA Redditi personali ott;
14:30 USA Consumi ott;
15:45 USA Indice PMI Chicago nov.


HEADLINES
Campari: prorogato al 10 dicembre 2012 il termine dell’Opa sul 100% di Lascelles deMercado
Davide Campari Milano ha annunciato oggi la proroga a lunedì 10 dicembre 2012 alle 16.30 (ora giamaicana) del termine dell’Offerta Pubblica di Acquisto finalizzata all’acquisto in contanti di tutte le azioni ordinarie e privilegiate emesse da Lascelles deMercado. Il termine del periodo di accettazione dell’Offerta fissato inizialmente dal documento di Offerta del 8 novembre 2012 era venerdì 30 novembre 2012.

Panariagroup: al 30 settembre risultato consolidato di periodo pari a 0,4 milioni di Euro
Panariagroup Industrie Ceramiche S.p.A.: il Consiglio di Amministrazione approva il resoconto intermedio di gestione al 30 settembre 2012. I Ricavi netti delle vendite e delle prestazioni consolidati sono stati pari a 216,5 milioni di Euro, il Margine operativo lordo a 14,4 milioni di Euro e il Risultato consolidato di periodo a 0,4 milioni di Euro.

Morgan Stanley taglia il target price di Buzzi Unicem
Gli analisti di Morgan Stanley hanno tagliato il prezzo obiettivo di Buzzi Unicem da 11,20 a 10,30 euro.

Offerta da Iren e F21 per l’inceneritore di Torino
C’è un’offerta per l’inceneritore di Torino, che arriva proprio nel giorno in cui è scaduto il bando per raccogliere le proposte sotto il prezzo d’asta. E’ quanto rende noto l’agenzia di stampa Reuters che cita fonti vicine al dossier. Ieri Iren insieme a F21 si è fatta avanti per rilevare l’80% del termovalorizzatore di Gerbido che il comune del capoluogo piemontese ha messo in vendita insieme al 49% della società locale di rifiuti. Inizialmente erano stati chiesti 140 milioni per Trm e 32 per la Amiat, ma la multiutility ha proposto circa il 10% in meno. La giunta torinese punta a concludere al più presto la gara per risolvere i suoi problemi di bilancio. Il comune di Torino è indebitato per oltre 250 milioni di euro proprio con Iren per il mancato pagamento di bollette di energia elettrica e nei prossimi mesi è previsto il pagamento di un prima tranche da 100 milioni.

Tod’s: Goldman Sachs peggiora la raccomandazione
Goldman Sachs ha peggiorato la raccomandazione su Tod’s da “buy” (acquistare) a “neutral”.

La Corte Ue consente alla Bce di occultare documenti sul caso greco
Il Tribunale Europeo ha dato ragione alla Bce che potrà nascondere le modalità con le quali la Grecia ha truccato i propri bilanci e nascosto all’Europa un enorme debito che da anni Atene e Bruxelles cercano ormai di ricoprire. La giornalista Gabi Thesing di Bloomberg Finance LP di stanza a Londra aveva chiesto alla Banca centrale europea due documenti dal titolo “L’impatto degli swap off-market sul deficit di un governo e sul debito. Il Caso greco” (‘The impact on government deficit and debt from off-market swaps. The Greek case’) e “L’operazione Titlos e la possibile esistenza di transazioni simili impattanti sui livelli di deficit e di debito pubblico dell’Eurozona” (‘The Titlos transaction and possible existence of similar transactions impacting on the euro area government debt or deficit levels’). La Bce ha però rifiutato di fornire questi documenti e la giornalista si è rivolta alla Corte Europea che ha affermato che ogni persona residente o con una sede di lavoro registrata in uno Stato membro europeo ha il diritto d’accesso ai documenti della Banca centrale europea. Nondimento la Bce deve rifiutare l’acceso al documento quando, tra le altre corse, la sua pubblicazione possa danneggiare la protezione del pubblico interesse.

Thursday’s Earnings Guidance

EarningsWhispers.com EarningsWhispers.com
Thursday, November 29, 2012

Positive Guidance

HanesBrands Sees 2013 Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:05:01 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


HanesBrands Inc (HBI) said it continues to expect fourth quarter earnings of $1.00 to $1.06 per share on revenue of $1.13 billion to $1.17 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.15 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2012. The company also said it expects 2013 earnings of $3.25 to $3.40 per share on revenue of $4.60 billion to $4.70 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.17 per share on revenue of $4.68 billion for the year ending December 31, 2013.

Kroger Raises Guidance
Thursday, November 29, 2012  8:30:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Kroger Co. (KR) said it now expects fiscal year earnings of $2.44 to $2.46 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $2.35 to $2.42 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share for the year ending January 31, 2013.

Gildan Activewear Sees Fiscal Year Revenue Below Estimates; Earnings Above
Thursday, November 29, 2012  6:31:44 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.28 to $0.31 per share on revenue in excess of $400.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $382.5 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2012. The company also said it expects fiscal 2013 earnings of $2.60 to $2.70 per share on revenue of approximately $2.10 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.53 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion for the year ending September 30, 2013.




  Inline Guidance

Yum! Brands Provides Guidance
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:35:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) said it continues to expect 2012 earnings of at least $3.24 per share and said it expects 2013 earnings of at least $3.56 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.27 per share for the year ending December 31, 2012 and $3.72 per share for the year ending December 31, 2013.

OmniVision Guides Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:18:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (OVTI) said it expects third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.33 to $0.46 per share on revenue of $390.0 million to $425.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $362.5 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Five Below Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:06:35 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.35 to $0.37 per share on revenue of $167.0 million to $170.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $166.1 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Mitel Networks Guides In-line
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:05:08 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Mitel Networks Corp (MITL) said it expects third quarter revenue of $141.0 million to $146.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $142.1 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Splunk Guides Fourth Quarter Revenue In-line
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:05:01 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Splunk Inc. (SPLK) said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $58.0 million to $60.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $58.1 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Premiere Global Services Updates Guidance
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:05:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Premiere Global Services Inc. (PGI) said it now expects 2012 non-GAAP results to be towards the low-end of its previous guidance range of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $504.0 million to $507.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $505.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2012.

PacSun Sees Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:00:09 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) said it expects a fourth quarter loss of $0.17 to $0.09 per share on revenue of $225.0 million to $235.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.09 per share on revenue of $222.0 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Ulta Guides Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:00:01 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Ulta Beauty (ULTA) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.96 to $0.98 per share on revenue of $742.0 million to $754.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $735.6 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Cracker Barrel Reaffirms
Thursday, November 29, 2012  7:00:02 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) said it expects second quarter earnings of $1.22 to $1.27 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.25 per share for the quarter ending January 31, 2013. The company also said it continues to expect fiscal 2013 earnings of $4.50 to $4.70 per share on revenue of $2.60 billion to $2.65 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.65 per share on revenue of $2.63 billion for the year ending July 31, 2013.

Liquidity Services Sees First Quarter Below Estimates; Fiscal Year In-line
Thursday, November 29, 2012  6:58:56 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Liquidity Services Inc. (LQDT) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.36 to $0.40 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.43 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2012. The company said it expects 2013 earnings of $2.05 to $2.23 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.06 per share for the year ending September 30, 2013.

LTX-Credence Guides In-line
Thursday, November 29, 2012  6:55:04 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


LTX-Credence Corp (LTXC) said it expects a second quarter non-GAAP loss of $0.08 to $0.04 per share on revenue of $35.0 million to $39.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $36.9 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Pier 1 Guides Earnings In-line
Thursday, November 29, 2012  6:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (PIR) said it expects third quarter earnings of approximately $0.25 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share for the quarter ending November 24, 2012.

Negative Guidance
Mentor Graphics Provides Fourth Quarter Guidance Below Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:10:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Mentor Graphics Corp. (MENT) said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of approximately $0.55 per share on revenue of approximately $343.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $347.1 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Avago Technologies Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:05:06 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Avago Technologies Ltd (AVGO) said it expects first quarter revenue of $562.0 million to $587.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $609.6 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Zumiez Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  4:00:36 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $0.59 to $0.62 per share on revenue of $218.0 million to $221.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $222.7 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2013.

Owens & Minor Sees 2013 Below Estimates
Thursday, November 29, 2012  8:00:01 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Owens & Minor, Inc. (OMI) said it expects 2013 earnings of $1.90 to $2.00 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.08 per share for the year ending December 31, 2013.

Tiffany Lowers Guidance
Thursday, November 29, 2012  7:00:02 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Tiffany & Co. (TIF) said it now expects fiscal year earnings of $3.20 to $3.40 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $3.55 to $3.70 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share for the year ending January 31, 2013.

Copyright © 1998 – 2012 EarningsWhispers.com. All rights reserved.

CWS Market Review – November 30, 2012

November 30, 2012

Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. – Jack Bogle

After a short downturn following the election, the bulls have once again taken control. This is exactly what I expected would happen, and I continue to believe we’re in the midst of a nice year-end rally.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 touched a three-week high, and the NASDAQ Composite broke 3,000. The bulls were helped this week by a spate of positive economic news. For example, we learned that consumer confidence is now at a four-and-a-half-year high, and pending home sales are at a five-year high. And, as hard as it may seem to believe, there was even good news out of Greece.

This is more evidence that the Double Dip crowd once again got way ahead of themselves. For the time being, there’s no immediate threat of a recession. Since November 15th, the S&P 500 has rallied 4.6%. The index is now only 0.5% away from breaking its 50-day moving average, and we’re only 3.5% away from our highest close since 2007.

Of course, you probably wouldn’t know this by watching much of the financial media. The gloom-and-doomers have gotten far more attention than they deserve. Consider that 14 months ago, Intrade believed there was a 65% chance that the U.S. would enter a recession in 2012. Today that figure stands at 1%.

In this week’s CWS Market Review , we’ll take a closer look at why the Fiscal Cliff is nothing but hype. The media is largely inventing new worries for us. We’ll also discuss the terrible, rotten earnings report from JoS. A Bank Clothiers ($JOSB). Here’s a sneak preview: I’m not pleased with JOSB. More on that later.

Despite some unpleasantness, our Buy List continues to thrive. Our strategy of discipline and patience is working out very well. AFLAC ($AFL), for example, is at an 18-month high. Only a few months ago, it was below $40. Plus, stocks like Ford ($F ) and Oracle ($ORCL) have been particularly strong lately. Ford finished the day on Thursday at its highest close in seven months. But first, I want to tell you why you should ignore the ridiculous hype surrounding the Fiscal Cliff.

Don’t Fall for the Fiscal Cliff Hype

Wall Street’s fortunes seem to be beholden to the Fiscal Cliff (a registered trademark of CNBC). Late in the day on Tuesday, some rather casual remarks by Senator Harry Reid were enough to knock a few points off the S&P 500. The same things happened again on Thursday, but this time, the remarks came from House Speaker John Boehner. Then, as word of progress leaked out, well…the market started to gain traction.

Let me be clear: The threat from the Fiscal Cliff is greatly, hugely and fantastically exaggerated . It’s almost reached comical levels. The behavior at CNBC in particular has been reprehensible. The network is simultaneously over-hyping the threat while presenting themselves as the saviors. Folks, there’s nothing to worry about.

Of course, if we really were to go over the cliff, that would be bad news-and that’s precisely why it won’t happen. In the meantime, both sides need to prove to their respective bases that they’re not backing down. It’s for show, like you see in a nature program about silver-backed gorillas fighting for dominance.

But let’s get some facts. For one, the threat is easily avoidable. The White House and Congress have too much to lose by not reaching a deal. In fact, a recent article today at Politico suggests that, despite the rhetoric we hear in public, the framework of a deal is starting to take shape. Neither side will get everything it wants, but they’ll both get enough to walk away with some pride. Also, remember that this deal is being made with the lame-duck Congress. That means there are a few folks who won’t even members of Congress in a few weeks. In fact, a deal may even be reached some time in the new year. In a few months, no one will be talking about this.

The market has resigned itself to the fact that taxes will go up. That’s no surprise. In response, dozens of companies like Costco ($COST) and Las Vegas Sands ($LVS) have announced special dividends. Other companies like Walmart ($WMT) have moved up their dividend dates in order to avoid the taxman. An analyst at Deutsche Bank suggested that Bed, Bath & Beyond ($BBBY), one of our Buy List stocks, could pay a special dividend. I’m a doubter, but I will note that the home-furnishings company is sitting on $4 per share in cash.

One good way of putting the Fiscal Cliff threat into perspective is by looking at how well defense and aerospace stocks are doing. Needless to say, any sequester would be very bad news for these companies. The Defense Sector ETF ($ITA ) badly lagged the market for most of this year. Its relative performance reached a low point in late September, but then, except for a brief period in mid-November, the ITA has been leading the market ever since. This tells me that that no one has the motive for a prolonged fight. Furthermore, the Volatility Index ($VIX ) has remained subdued, and the stock market has largely avoided wild daily swings in the past few weeks. There’s only been one daily swing of more than 2% in the last two months, and that was the big sell-off on the day after the election. This has been a calm market.

The Math Still Favors Stocks

Due to market leadership from the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, I suspected that the sell-off would be short-lived. That’s not the script that sell-offs usually follow. Since June 5th, the Consumer Discretionary ETF ( $XLY) is up by 12.2%. In simpler terms, the homebuilders and shoppers are waking up from their slumber. Even some crummy tech names have been doing well. Thanks to a jump in shares of Facebook ($FB), Mark Zuckerberg has made a cool $4 billion in the last three weeks.

The good news about pending home sales, combined with a positive report on home prices, suggests that the housing recovery (such as it is) is propping up consumers. Mind you, there are still weak spots out there. Tiffany ($TIF), for example, just lowered guidance . But these are special cases rather than general rules.

Probably the best news for investors this week was largely ignored. Charles Evans of the Federal Reserve said that the Fed needs to extend its bond-buying programs until the economy can consistently add 200,000 jobs per month. Until now, the Fed has been reticent in giving a specific economic target as to when they need to take their foot off the gas. I don’t know if Evans will get his way, but we now know there are some voices inside the Fed willing to pursue these policies.

The bottom line is that there’s no possible solution to the Fiscal Cliff that alters the value spread between stocks and bonds. With the Fed gobbling Treasuries like Santa eating cookies, yields are low and will likely remain so. In fact, the austerity that would result from a Fiscal Cliff deal would add even more pressure.

Let’s look at some numbers. Analysts now expect 2012 earnings for the S&P 500 of $99.76, and $113.40 for 2013. In June 2011, analysts expected the S&P 500 to earn $111.82 for 2012. So that’s a big change in outlook, yet the market rallied. The reason we rallied is that the market had dramatically overreacted to fears from Europe. Over the last 14 months, earnings estimates for Q4 have come down, on average, about 1% per month. Yet even these lowered numbers represent an acceleration of earnings growth. Prudent investors are in excellent shape right now. The indexes are up, and dividends are having a banner year. I think the S&P 500 can hit 1,500 by March.

JoS. A Bank Clothiers Bombs

One aspect of being a good investor is being upfront about our mistakes. After all, that’s how we learn. One big mistake we made this year was having JoS. A Bank Clothiers ($JOSB) on our Buy List. For the second time this year, Joey B badly missed earnings. I understand it happening once, but two times tells me there are some serious problems.

On Wednesday, JOSB reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 47 cents per share, which was nine cents below estimates. Sales actually did pretty well, both total and comparable-store. But profits tanked. This tells us that JOSB is probably overstocked, and they’re dumping inventory at any price-hence all the buy-one-suit-get-78-free commercials.

What’s even worse is that JOSB warned that comparable-store sales were down in November, and the company is ” cautious” about Q4. That’s not good. Let’s just say that JOSB probably won’t be on next year’s Buy List.

Oracle Is a Buy Up to $35

We have earnings reports due soon from Oracle ($ORCL) and Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY). In our last issue , I highlighted Oracle as a good buy, and the shares rose to a two-month high. Oracle looks ready to break out with a new 52-week high. The company is due to release its next earnings report in about two weeks. I’m expecting another strong report. Oracle remains a strong buy any time it’s below $35 per share.

One quick word about Stryker ($SYK ). I expect SYK will soon raise its quarterly dividend. The company currently pays out 21.25 cents per quarter. I think they’ll bump it to around 23 cents per share in the next week or so. This is a solid company. They’ve raised their dividend every year since 1995. Stryker is a good buy up to $57.

That’s all for now. On Monday, we’ll get the ISM report for November. All eyes on Wall Street will be focused on Friday’s big employment report. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

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Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last five years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.

2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday

T H U R S D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, November 29, 2012
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 958.6K)

Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 543.6K)

Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 657.4K)

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

GDP (expected +2.8%; previous +2%)

Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +2.8%; previous +2.8%)

Corporate Profits (previous -0.4%)

PCE Price Index (previous +1.8%)

Purchase Price Index (previous +1.5%)

Real Final Sales (previous +2.1%)

Core PCE Price Index (Ex Food/Energy) (previous +1.3%)

Personal Consumption (previous +2%)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 395K; previous 410K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -41K)

Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3337000)

Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -30K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

Consumer Comfort (previous -33.9)

10:00 AM ET. Oct Pending Home Sales Index

Current (previous 99.5)

MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (expected +1%; previous +0.3%)

YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +14.5%)

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous 0%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 3873B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous -38B)

11:00 AM ET. Nov Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Manufacturing Activity Index (previous –6)

Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 9)

Manufacturing Composite Index (previous –4)

6-Month Composite Expectations Index (previous 3)

12:00 PM ET. Nov ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 0)

Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 5M)

Discount Window Borrowings (previous 981M)

Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 1.01B)

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.19T)

US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 319.4B)

Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.84T)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+

The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally
off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
December extends the aforementioned rally, November’s high crossing at 2694.00
is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
2593.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is Tuesday’s high crossing at 2658.75. Second resistance is November’s high
crossing at 2694.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
2607.15. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2593.40.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1389.61. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November’s low,
November’s high crossing at 1431.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 1383.03 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
1407.40. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 1431.40. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1389.89. Second support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 1379.96.

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday due to rising hopes that the congress
will come to some agreement on the debt crises facing the country. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off November’s low,
November’s high crossing at 13,290 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 12,793 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 13,011.
Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 13,290. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 12,793. Second support is the 75% retracement
level of the June-October rally crossing at 12,443.

______________________________

_______________________________________
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

December T-bonds closed up 5-pts. at 151-01.

December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week’s rally.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in
or is near. If December renews the rally off October’s low, the reaction high
crossing at 153-05 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s low
crossing at 149-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while
opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is
November’s high crossing at 152-21. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 153-05. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 149-23.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 148-03.

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy

January crude oil closed lower on Wednesday but the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off
September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 82.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 89.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 89.67. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 93.98. First support is the 75% retracement level
of the June-September rally crossing at 85.06. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.36.

January heating oil closed higher due to a late day rally on Wednesday and
remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.93. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the
decline off September’s high, the 50% retracement level of the June-October
rally crossing at 290.21 is the next downside target. If January extends the
rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 318.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 310.26.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 318.00. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 293.87. Second support is the 50% retracement level of
the June-October rally crossing at 290.21.

January unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of
this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.41 would signal
that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews this month’s rally,
October’s high crossing at 282.41 is the next upside target. First resistance
is last Monday’s high crossing at 275.05. Second resistance is October’s high
crossing at 282.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
265.41. Second support is November’s low crossing at 253.24.

January Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday extending this week’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 3.819 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If January
renews the rally off November’s low, October’s high crossing at 4.088 is the
next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 4.060.
Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 4.088. First support is today’s
low crossing at 3.737. Second support is November’s low crossing at 3.598.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

The December Dollar closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day correction
off Monday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December
extends the decline off November’s high, the reaction low crossing at 79.72 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
80.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.80. Second resistance is November’s
high crossing at 81.51. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 80.07.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.72.

The December Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of the rally off November’s low. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November’s
low, the reaction high crossing at 130.27 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.27 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 130.27. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 131.47. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.27. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 126.65.

The December British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some
of the rally off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off
November’s low, November’s high crossing at 1.6173 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5943 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at
1.6057. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 1.6173. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5943. Second support is the 50%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 1.5821.

The December Swiss Franc closed unchanged on Wednesday. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this
month’s rally, October’s high crossing at .10861 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10645 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing
at .10837. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at .10861. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10645. Second support is
November’s low crossing at .10517.

The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally
off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 101.18 is the next upside
target. If December renews the decline off September’s high, the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 98.55 is the next
downside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 100.91. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.18. First support is the 50%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 99.51. Second support
is the 62% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 98.55.

The December Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday
as it consolidates some of the decline off September’s high. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at .12386 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
If December renews this fall’s decline, March’s low crossing at .11980 are the
next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
.12246. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .12386.
First support is last Friday’s low crossing at .12074. Second support is
March’s low crossing at .11980.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

December gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1722.00 confirming that a short-term top has been posted.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, November’s low crossing at
1672.50 is the next downside target. If December renews this month’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 1776.60 is the next upside target. First resistance
is last Friday’s high crossing at 1755.00. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 1776.60. First support is today’s low crossing at 1705.50.
Second support is November’s low crossing at 1672.50.

December silver closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of this month’s rally. The mid-range close set the stage for
a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally,
the reaction high crossing at 34.380 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.668 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 34.380.
Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 35.445. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 33.327. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 32.668.

December copper closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday but remains
above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the
rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 356.90 is the next
upside target. If December renews the decline off September’s high, the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 333.36 is the next
downside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 355.30. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 356.90. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 349.27. Second support is November’s low crossing at
340.30.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

March coffee close higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of the decline off October’s high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in
or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.46
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends
the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 12.90 is the next
downside target.

March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this
week’s losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish
hinting that a top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 24.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 25.26 is the
next upside target.

March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews
the decline off October’s high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011
rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March renews this month’s rally, October’s high crossing at 76.39 is the next
upside target. If March renews the decline off October’s high, November’s low
crossing at 69.79 is the next downside target.
——————————

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

December Corn closed up a 1/4-cents at 7.60 1/4.

December corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 7.69 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.41 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November’s high
crossing at 7.63 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.69.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.41. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 7.10 1/2.

December wheat closed up 3-cents at 8.76.

December wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday’s breakout
above the 20-day moving average confirming that a short-term low has been
posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 8.95 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.51 would
temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today’s high crossing
at 8.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.95. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.51. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 8.29 1/2.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 9.18 1/2.

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended
Tuesday’s breakout above the 20-day moving average confirming that a low has
been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this
week’s rally, November’s high crossing at 9.40 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.87 3/4 would temper the
near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 9.21.
Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 9.40. First support is last
Monday’s low crossing at 8.76. Second support is August’s low crossing at 8.74
1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 9.38 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends
Tuesday’s rally above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins to
trade. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s rally,
November’s high crossing at 9.66 1/4 is the next upside target. If December
renews this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally
crossing at 8.83 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s
high crossing at 9.43 1/4. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at
9.66 1/4. First support is November’s low crossing at 9.06. Second support is
the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.83 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

January soybeans closed down 3-cents at 14.46 1/4.

January soybeans closed lower due to profit taking Wednesday and the
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If January renews the decline off September’s high, 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 13.15 1/2 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.23. First support
is last Friday’s low crossing at 13.72 1/4. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 13.15 1/2.

December soybean meal closed up $0.60 at $439.90.

December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week’s
short covering rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 447.10 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this month’s
decline, is the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at
398.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing
at 442.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 447.10.
First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 420.90. Second support is the
75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 398.30.

December soybean oil closed down 1-pts. at 50.10.

December soybean closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the
rally off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned
rally, the reaction high crossing at 50.91 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 48.54 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
50.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.91. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 48.54. Second support is November’s
low crossing at 46.52.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

December hogs closed up $1.45 at $83.82.

December hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday extending the rally
off September’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength
is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September’s low, the
87% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 84.06 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
80.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 83.85. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level
of the February-September decline crossing at 84.06. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 81.65. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 80.33.

December cattle closed down $0.55 at 127.82.

December cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this
month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 129.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 126.36 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 129.12.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129.22. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 127.24. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 126.36.

January feeder cattle closed down $0.85 at $146.07.

January Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If January extends
today’s decline, November’s low crossing at 144.37 is the next downside target.
If January renews the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at
149.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at
147.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 149.50. First
support is today’s low crossing at 146.00. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 144.34.

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T H A N K   Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________

Copyright 2012 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Cliff Crossfire a Sideshow to Value Investors – 11/29/2012

Early in the Wednesday trading session, investors got scared by Erskine Bowles’ comment that a cliff deal likely won’t be sealed this year. Next thing you know shares are pouring down towards the 200 day moving average at 1384.

That level provided some support. Then further support was added thanks to positive cliff comments from both President Obama and House Leader Boehner. They seemed optimistic about a deal before Christmas. This had shares rocketing back above 1400.

So now what?

Don’t be overly swayed by the daily headlines. There are quite simply many more ways to avoid the cliff than ways to plummet over it. So best to play the odds when they are in your favor. And that says it’s worthwhile being firmly long the market at this time.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity… pronounced “Righty”)
Executive VP, Zacks Investment Research