Did We Just Breakout? – 02/28/2014

Today we tried the opposite of the recent past. By that I mean that stocks actually opened lower and then did an about face to rise above 1850. And yes, we finally closed above that important mark for the first time.

This is no great surprise in my book as the long term bull market remains in place. Most likely we will stay above 1850 as long as the upcoming slate of key economic news is neutral to positive.

Friday 2/28: Q4 GDP first revision

Monday 3/3: ISM Mfg Index

Wednesday 3/5: ADP Employment, ISM Services

Friday 3/7: January Employment Situation

To sum it up, the breakout is in place right now unless some bad economic news rolls around to rain on our parade.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 28/02/2014

MERCATO USA
Wall Street è rimasta chiusa per la festività del Presidents Day (commemorazione del compleanno di George Washington).

Borsa di Tokyo in forte recupero: la BOJ espande il programma di prestiti speciali

Nikkei tonico dopo la decisione della BoJ di estendere il piano dei prestiti speciali per sostenere le attività produttive: l’indice giapponese reagisce con decisione alla fase di incertezza vista la scorsa ottava e archivia le negoziazioni a 14843,24 punti, con un progresso del 3,13%. I prezzi mostrano la grinta necessaria per sferrare l’attacco risolutivo a 14875/15000, una resistenza oltre la quale sarebbe lecito ipotizzare il riavvicinamento ai record di fine 2013 a 16320 punti. Per conservare intatta la possibilità di vedere realizzato tale scenario, i prezzi dovranno riportarsi stabilmente al di sopra della media mobile a 100 giorni, riferimento strategico anche in ottica di medio lungo termine in transito a 15000 circa. Discese sotto 14000, dove si colloca il 61,8% di ritracciamento del rialzo partito lo scorso giugno, aprirebbero invece la via verso 13613, per la ricopertura del gap rialzista del 3 settembre, preludendo poi all’affondo sui minimi di giugno, a 12415 punti. Seduta positiva anche per il Topix che si è attestato a 1224,00 punti (+2,68%).

Sul versante macroeconomico la Bank of Japan ha confermato i tassi di interesse ai minimi storici, nel range compreso tra lo 0,00% e lo 0,10%, mantenendo invariato il programma di acquisto di titoli del debito pubblico. Tuttavia ha raddoppiato il volume di un programma di prestiti alle banche allo scopo di sostenere la crescita economica. Il Ministero del Commercio ha reso noto che gli investimenti diretti esteri in Cina sono aumentati in gennaio del 16,10% rispetto all’anno scorso, ben oltre il 5,30% rilevato nel mese di dicembre. Gli investimenti diretti esteri non finanziari sono aumentati del 47,2% nel primo mese del 2014 rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2013, a 7,23 miliardi dollari.

Sul fronte societario il settore bancario è quello che ha beneficiato maggiormente delle decisioni di politica monetaria: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ha guadagnato il 5,03%, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group il 5,00% e Mizuho Financial Group il 4,27%. Bene anche il comparto immobiliare con settore immobiliare Mitsui Fudosan in crescita del 3,31%, Mitsubishi Estate del 4,04% e Sumitomo Realty & Development del 4,08%. L’indebolimento dello yen ha avvantaggiato i titoli dell’export: Toyota ha guadagnato il 2,40%, Mazda il 4,39%, Honda l’1,97% e Canon il 2,39%. Il produttore di videogiochi Konami ha guadagnato il 7,22% dopo che Tokai Tokyo Securities ne ha consigliato l’acquisto.

In ordine sparso le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Seoul guadagna lo 0,03%, a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng segna un -0,08%. Male invece la borsa di Shanghai che scende dell’1,46%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
MERCATI EUROPEI

Borse europee deboli, vendite su Inditex

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto la seduta deboli. Il Dax30 di Francoforte guadagna lo 0,02%, lo Smi di Zurigo lo 0,04%. Sotto la parità il Cac40 di Parigi (-0,35%), il Ftse100 di Londra (-0,15%) e l’Ibex35 di Madrid (-0,8%).

Peugeot -0,8%. Le azioni del costruttore di auto cinese Dongfeng Motor sono sospese in attesa di una nota alla Borsa di Hong Kong. Secondo indiscrezioni oggi sarà annunciato l’acquisto di Dongfeng del 14% del capitale del gruppo francese.

Air Liquide +0,05%. Il produttore di gas industriali ha chiuso il 2013 con un utile netto di 1,64 miliardi di euro, in crescita del 3,1% rispetto al 2012. Il giro d’affari è invece calato dello 0,7% a 15,23 miliardi. Gli analisti avevano previsto un utile di 1,62 miliardi su ricavi per 15,35 miliardi. Il board ha proposto un dividendo di 2,55 euro per azione, in aumento del 2% rispetto ad un anno prima e la distribuzione di una azione gratuita ogni 10 possedute. Per il 2014 la società stima un ulteriore crescita.

Inditex -3%. Citigroup ha tagliato il rating sul titolo del gruppo di abbigliamento a neutral da buy.

Tnt Express +1,5%. Il gruppo delle spedizioni ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con un utile di 32 milioni di euro contro la perdita di 148 milioni di un anno prima. I ricavi sono calati del 4,6% a 1,704 miliardi. Il board ha proposto un dividendo di 0,024 euro per azione.

BHP Billiton +0,05%. Il gruppo minerario ha chiuso il primo semestre con un utile di 8,107 miliardi di dollari, in crescita dell’82,9% rispetto ad un anno prima. Il dato è superiore alle attese.

 

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Borsa italiana in leggero rialzo con i bancari. Debole Fiat dopo dati immatricolazioni Europa

Il Ftse Mib segna +0,07%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,08%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,13%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,36%.
Borse europee poco sotto la parità. Ieri i mercati USA sono rimasti chiusi per festività (Washington’s Birthday). I future sui principali indici USA al momento sono in lieve rialzo. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha terminato a +3,13%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng ha fatto segnare +0,23%.

Acquisti sui bancari grazie ai report di Societe Generale. In evidenza BP Milano (+1,7%): Societe Generale ha migliorato la raccomandazione sul titolo da “sell” (vendere) a “hold” (mantenere). In verde anche Intesa Sanpaolo (+0,7% a 2,20 euro): Societe Generale ha migliorato la raccomandazione sul titolo da “hold” (mantenere) a “buy” (acquistare) e alzato il target price da 1,80 a 2,50 euro. Debole invece Unicredit (-0,7%) su cui Societe Generale ha peggiorato la raccomandazione da “buy” (acquistare) a “hold” (mantenere).

Beni Stabili (+3,3% a 0,6230 euro) prolunga il rally di ieri e tocca i massimi da agosto 2011 in scia alla decisione di Equita di alzare il target price sul titolo a 0,68 euro con raccomandazione “buy” (acquistare) confermata.

In forte rialzo LVenture (+11,72%, asta di volatilità): il cda della società specializzata in investimenti in startup digitali ha approvato il piano 2014-2017, piano che prevede il raggiungimento, al termine del periodo di riferimento, di un portafoglio di partecipazioni in 59 startup nel settore delle tecnologie digitali per un valore complessivo di investimenti pari a circa Euro 11 milioni, e il conseguimento di un risultato netto atteso compreso tra i 3 e i 4 milioni di Euro nel 2017. In programma anche un aumento di capitale da realizzarsi entro il fine anno.

Fiat (-0,8%) sotto la parità dopo i dati sulle immatricolazioni di autoveicoli in Europa a gennaio: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles ha subito un calo delle immatricolazioni dell’1,8% a/a, contro il +5,2% a/a del mercato. di conseguenza la quota di mercato di FCA è scesa dello 0,4% al 6,2%.


NUOVA SEZIONE DI ADVFN, ANALISI DEI MERCATI!
Da una sinergia fra ADVFN e Proiezionidiborsa nasce la rubrica: Analisi dei Mercati!

Analisi e Segnali di Borsa quotidiani dai professionisti della finanza.

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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Dopo il deciso segnale di forza inviato venerdi’ Atlantia ha impiegato la prima seduta della settimana a consolidare i recenti guadagni. Il titolo ha infatti superato nella parte terminale della scorsa ottava con forza e con volumi elevati la resistenza offerta a 17,80/83 dai massimi di gennaio, ostacolo coincidente con il lato superiore del gap ribassista del 26 giugno 2008 e soprattutto con il 61,8% di ritracciamento del ribasso dai massimi di novembre 2007. Se in prima battuta il mancato superamento dell’ostacolo rappresentato dal livello di ritracciamento di Fibonacci si era dimostrato preoccupante, spesso esso coincide infatti con punti di svolta significativi anche nel contesto di medio periodo, la sua rottura porta invece una notevole dose di ottimismo nella determinazione del quadro grafico futuro. Lasciandosi alle spalle area 17,80 il titolo si guadagna infatti la possibilita’ di salire almeno fino a testare il livello successivo nella scala dei ritracciamenti di Fibonacci, il 78,6%, posto a 20,30 circa, ultimo ostacolo sulla via del recupero dei massimi del 2007 in area 23,65. Motivi di preoccupazione per la tenuta dell’uptrend comparirebbero solo al di sotto di area 17,30 (nel breve primo supporto a 17,80). In quel caso rischio di discese almeno fino a 16,74/75, minimo di febbraio e media mobile a 50 giorni. Per chi volesse comprare il titolo intervenire alla rottura di 18,40 per il test di 19,20, stop sotto 18,10. Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere le posizioni con stop sotto 17,80, incrementare oltre 18,40 per 19,20.

Mediobanca si conferma in avvio di ottava al di sopra dei massimi toccati all’inizio dell’anno a 7,22 puntando in direzione di 7,50, lato superiore del canale che sale dai bottom del 2012. Una vittoria su questo limite fornirebbe un’indicazione di forza capace di condizionare positivamente anche il medio termine: probabile in tal caso assistere ad un allungo verso i top del 2011, a 8,10 circa. Se l’arrivo in area 7,50 fosse però accompagnato da una condizioni di ipercomprato sugli oscillatori tecnici, diverrebbe probabile assistere ad un “return move” a 7,22. Lo scenario muterebbe in negativo invece se i prezzi dovessero precipitare definitivamente sotto area 6,40: probabile in tal caso l’avvio di una correzione in direzione dei minimi di dicembre a 5,85. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: intervenire sui livelli attuali per il test di 7,50 euro. Stop loss sotto 7,22 euro. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: mantenere uno stop subito sotto 7,22 euro. Target a 7,50 e 8,10 euro.

Prysmian guadagna terreno e si avvicina al massimo di metà gennaio a 19,79 euro. Si tratta di una resistenza determinante in ottica di lungo periodo dato che l’eventuale superamento della stessa permetterebbe alle quotazioni di lasciarsi alle spalle il movimento laterale attivo da ottobre e lanciarsi verso il record storico del 2007 a 21,40, per poi eventualmente proseguire in direzione di area 25. Eventuali discese sotto 18,20 anticiperebbero invece un’inversione di tendenza rispetto al rally visto nelle ultime due settimane, con conseguente test dei fondamentali supporti posizionati sui 17,30 e rappresentati dai minimi allineati di dicembre e inizio febbraio. Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 19,79 per 21,40, stop sotto 18,70. Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 21,40 per 25, ridurre sotto 18,20 e uscire alla violazione di 17,30.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Martedì 18 febbraio 2014
GIA Riunione BoJ e decisione tassi;
09:00 EUR Riunione Ecofin;
10:00 EUR Bilancia partite correnti;
10:00 ITA Bilancia commerciale (EU) dic;
10:00 ITA Bilancia commerciale (totale) dic;
10:30 GB Inflazione gen;
10:30 GB Indice prezzi alla produzione gen;
11:00 GER Indice ZEW (fiducia investitori istituzionali) feb;
14:30 USA Indice Empire State Manufacturing feb;
15:00 USA Acquisti netti att. finanziarie (lungo term.) dic;
16:00 USA Indice Mercato Immobiliare NAHB feb.


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HEADLINES
Banco Popolare/Credito Bergamasco: rapporto concambio confermato a 11,5
I Consigli di Amministrazione di BancoPopolare e Credito Bergamasco hanno valutato gli impatti degli interventi annunciati al mercato il 24 gennaio 2014 sul Rapporto di Cambio e più in generale sulla fusione per incorporazione del Credito Bergamasco nel Banco Popolare. I cda hanno verificato che il rapporto di concambio, alla luce del prezzo ufficiale del BancoPopolare del 14 febbraio scorso di € 1,457 per azione ed ipotizzando l’emissione di nuove azioni Banco Popolare – in esecuzione dell’aumento di capitale – senza sconto sul prezzo ex, continua ad essere pari a 11,5 azioni ordinarie Banco Popolare per ogni azione ordinaria Credito Bergamasco. Si conferma che, sulla base del prezzo ufficiale del Banco Popolare del 14 febbraio scorso di € 1,457 per azione, ipotizzando l’emissione di nuove azioni Banco Popolare- in esecuzione dell’aumento di capitale – senza sconto sul prezzo ex, il Rapporto di Cambio continua ad essere pari a 11,5 azioni ordinarie Banco Popolare per ogni azione ordinaria Credito Bergamasco, valorizzando implicitamente l’azione Credito Bergamasco € 16,76.

Cir: tensioni finanziarie per Sorgenia, in queste condizioni ha un mese di autonomia
CIR rende noto, su richiesta della Consob, che la controllata Sorgenia al 31-1-2014 aveva un livello di indebitamento lordo per cassa pari a € 1.863 milioni e per firma (garanzie emesse) per € 304 milioni. Sono in corso trattative con diversi soggetti coinvolti e Sorgenia ha inviato agli istituti finanziatori una proposta di stand still e moratoria dei pagamenti degli interessi, delle commissioni e delle rate di capitale fino al 1 luglio 2014. L’obiettivo del gruppo Sorgenia è di pervenire a un accordo in tempi ragionevolmente brevi per concentrare la discussione sul piano industriale e sulla correlata manovra finanziaria volta alla ristrutturazione dell’indebitamento. In assenza del ripristino dei finanziamenti Sorgenia potrebbe avere un’autonomia finanziaria di circa un mese. Nei mesi scorsi sono infatti state assunte da parte di molti istituti finanziatori numerose iniziative di revoca, sospensione o congelamento di linee per cassa e per firma. Allo stato vi è un’unica linea di cassa disponibile, mentre non vi è disponibilità su alcuna linea per firma. Tale situazione, naturalmente, determina una significativa tensione finanziaria che, qualora perdurasse, potrebbe generare conseguenze pregiudizievoli per l’operatività del gruppo Sorgenia.

Gefran: Alfredo Sala, Amministratore Delegato, lascerà ad aprile la guida della società
Il Consiglio di Amministrazione di GEFRAN si è riunito ieri sotto la presidenza di Ennio Franceschetti. Nel corso della riunione Alfredo Sala, Amministratore delegato di Gefran S.p.A, ha comunicato l’ intenzione di rinunciare all’incarico di Amministratore Delegato a decorrere dalla scadenza naturale del Consiglio di Amministrazione. A fare data dunque dalla prossima assemblea degli azionisti, prevista per il 29 aprile, Alfredo Sala rimetterà le proprie cariche e cesserà consensualmente il rapporto di collaborazione in essere con Gefran. Alfredo Sala è alla guida di Gefran dallo scorso 2004 e conclude così il terzo mandato da Amministratore Delegato. Alla luce di quanto sopra, il Presidente Ennio Franceschetti ha proposto al Consiglio di Amministrazione di lavorare, nelle prossime settimane, per assumere le necessarie decisioni di riassetto dell’organizzazione direzionale e della governance aziendale, nel contesto del piano industriale in fase avanzata di elaborazione, piano che verrà sottoposto ad approvazione nel corso della riunione del consiglio di amministrazione prevista per il 12 marzo 2014, data in cui è prevista anche l’approvazione del progetto di bilancio di Gefran SpA e del bilancio consolidato al 31 dicembre 2013.

Maire Tecnimont: esercizio dell’opzione di over-allotment
In relazione all’emissione del prestito obbligazionario c.d. equity linked €70 milioni 5,75% con scadenza in data 20 febbraio 2019 annunciata lo scorso 13 febbraio 2014, Maire Tecnimont rende noto che i Joint Bookrunners hanno esercitato integralmente l’opzione di over-allotment ad essi concessa. Di conseguenza, l’importo nominale complessivo delle Obbligazioni viene incrementato da €70 milioni a €80 milioni. Il regolamento delle Obbligazioni è previsto per il 20 febbraio 2014. Banca IMI S.p.A. ha agito in qualità di Global Coordinator, e con UniCredit Bank AG, Milan Branch, in qualità di Joint Bookrunners del Collocamento e MPS Capital Services Banca per le Imprese S.p.A. in qualità di Co-Bookrunner del Collocamento.

BHP Billiton: semestre in crescita, migliora soprattutto la redditività
Il gigante minerario australiano BHP Billiton ha chiuso il semestre al dicembre 2013 con ricavi in crescita da 32,06 a 33,94 miliardi di dollari (+5,9%). L’utile operativo è passato da 7,97 a 12,93 miliardi di dollari e l’utile netto attribuibile alla capogruppo è quasi raddoppiato portandosi a 8,10 miliardi di dollari dai 4,43 miliardi di un anno fa (+82,9%). Approvata per il periodo una cedola di 59 centesimi (in crescita dai 57 centesimi del corrispondente semestre del precedente esercizio). Come dimostra la crescita del risultato operativo la società ha migliorato la propria redditività riducendo i costi a fronte di un incremento della produzione. Aumenta del 65% il cash flow operativo netto. I capex per il 2014 sono attesi in calo del 25% a 16,1 miliardi di dollari.

Acea: vendite di auto Ue in crescita a gennaio per il quinto mese consecutivo (+5,5%)
L’associazione europea dei costruttori di auto ha registrato nel mese di gennaio una crescita del 5,5% nelle immatricolazioni di auto giunte a 935.640 unità. Si tratta del quinto mese consecutivo in miglioramento sul dato di un anno prima. I vari mercati nazionali declinano in maniera diversa questa fase di recupero delle quattro ruote, con il Regno Unito e la Spagna che segnano incrementi del 7,6%, la Germania e la Francia che vedono il proprio mercato crescere del 7,2 e dello 0,5% rispettivamente. Positive anche le performance dell’Italia, che vede a gennaio immatricolate 117.802 auto (+3,2%). Cresce ancora Volkswagen (+8,9% a 237.538 auto con il 25,4% del mercato europeo). Aumentano del 7,4% le immatricolazioni di PSA Peugeot-Citroen a 109.257 auto vendute e quelle di Renault (+13,4% a 86.452 auto). Seguono Ford (+9,5% a 65.878 vetture) e GM Group (in Europa opera con i marchi Opel/Vauxhall e Chevrolet), che archivia il mese con la vendita di 64.687 auto (-5,3%). Il gruppo Fiat immatricola a gennaio 58.619 auto per passeggeri in Europa con una flessione del 2,1 per cento. Poco distanti Bmw (+0,5% a 55.316 auto) e Daimler (-0,6% a 48.931 auto).

Thursday’s Earnings Guidance Feb 27, 2014

Positive Guidance
Applied Optoelectronics Guides Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:14:03 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.04 to $0.07 per share on revenue of $23.5 million to $24.5 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $18.8 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

AtriCure Sees Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:57 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


AtriCure Inc (ATRC) said it expects 2014 revenue of $100.0 million to $103.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $96.9 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Salix Pharmaceuticals Guides Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:27 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (SLXP) said it expects first quarter revenue of approximately $373.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $342.6 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 revenue of approximately $1.60 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $1.57 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Inteliquent Sees Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:45:01 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Inteliquent, Inc. (IQNT) said it expects 2014 revenue of $200.0 million to $210.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $198.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Harvard Bioscience Sees 2014 Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:25 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Harvard Bioscience Inc. (HBIO) said it expects 2014 earnings of approximately $0.26 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

LTX-Credence Sees Earnings Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:55:17 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


LTX-Credence Corp (LTXC) said it expects third quarter results to range from breakeven to earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $100.0 million to $105.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $100.5 million for the quarter ending April 30, 2014.

Dangdang Sees Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:47:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


E-commerce China Dangdang Inc. (DANG) said it expects first quarter revenue of approximately $282.9 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $256.6 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Inline Guidance
CubeSmart Provides FFO Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  5:38:50 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


CubeSmart (CUBE) said it expects first quarter funds from operations of $0.23 to $0.24 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $0.23 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $0.98 to $1.02 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $1.02 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Universal Health Services Sees Earnings Below Estimates; Revenue Above
Thursday, February 27, 2014  5:01:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.80 to $5.10 per share on revenue of $7.89 billion to $7.94 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.25 per share on revenue of $7.77 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Willbros Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  5:01:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Willbros Group Inc. (WG) said it expects 2014 revenue of $2.10 billion to $2.30 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $2.17 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

MasTec Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  5:00:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


MasTec Inc. (MTZ) said it expects first quarter earnings of approximately $0.20 per share on revenue of approximately $920.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.27 to $2.30 per share on revenue of $4.65 billion to $4.70 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.13 per share on revenue of $4.67 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Youku Tudou Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  5:00:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Youku Tudou Inc. (YOKU) said it expects first quarter revenue of ¥680.0 million to ¥720.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is ¥702.2 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Universal Display Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:53:17 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Universal Display Corporation (OLED) said it expects 2014 revenue of $190.0 million to $205.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $199.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

OmniVision Technologies Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:25:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (OVTI) said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.19 to $0.35 per share on revenue of $275.0 million to $305.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $284.9 million for the quarter ending April 30, 2014.

Power Solutions Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:14:58 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Power Solutions International, Inc (PSIX) said it continues to expect 2014 revenue of $310.0 million to $330.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $321.8 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Spectranetics Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:14:33 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Spectranetics Corporation (SPNC) said it expects a 2014 loss of $0.12 to $0.07 per share on revenue of $177.5 million to $180.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $178.9 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Sprouts Farmers Market Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:13:48 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.58 to $0.60 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Esterline Technologies Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:07:12 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL) said it continues to expect fiscal 2014 earnings of $5.40 to $5.70 per share on revenue of $2.00 billion to $2.10 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $5.60 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion for the year ending October 31, 2014.

Kaman Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:06:45 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Kaman Corp. (KAMN) said it expects 2014 revenue of $1.76 billion to $1.81 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $1.78 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Spirit Realty Capital Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:06:19 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC) said it continues to expect 2014 funds from operations of $0.77 to $0.82 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $0.82 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Mentor Graphics Sees First Quarter Below Estimates; 2014 In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:06:05 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Mentor Graphics Corporation (MENT) said it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of approximately $0.06 per share on revenue of approximately $245.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $261.2 million for the quarter ending April 30, 2014. The company said it expects fiscal 2015 earnings of approximately $1.75 per share on revenue of approximately $1.237 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.74 per share on revenue of $1.23 billion for the year ending January 31, 2015.

Insulet Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:05:26 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Insulet Corp. (PODD) said it expects first quarter revenue of $67.0 million to $71.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $69.1 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 revenue of $295.0 million to $315.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $302.2 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Salesforce.com Raises Revenue Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:05:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Salesforce.com (CRM) said it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.09 to $0.10 per share on revenue of $1.205 billion to $1.210 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $1.19 billion for the quarter ending April 30, 2014. The company said it expects fiscal 2015 earnings of $0.48 to $0.50 per share and now expects revenue of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion. The company’s previous guidance was revenue of $5.15 billion to $5.20 billion and the current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.50 per share on revenue of $5.21 billion for the year ending January 31, 2015.

IRIDEX Provides Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:05:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


IRIDEX Corp. (IRIX) said it expects first quarter revenue of $9.8 million to $10.1 million. There currently are no revenue estimates for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Splunk Provides Revenue Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:02:24 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Splunk Inc. (SPLK) said it expects first quarter revenue of $78.0 million to $80.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $79.4 million for the quarter ending April 30, 2014. The company said it expects fiscal 2015 revenue of approximately $400.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $396.8 million for the year ending January 31, 2015.

EPR Properties Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:02:21 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


EPR Properties (EPR) said it expects 2014 funds from operations of $4.12 to $4.22 per share. The current consensus FFO estimate is $4.19 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Chuy’s Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:02:02 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Chuy’s Holdings Inc. (CHUY) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.81 to $0.84 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.84 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

PROS Holdings Sees Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:51 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


PROS Holdings Inc (PRO) said it expects first quarter results to range from a loss of $0.01 per share to breakeven on revenue of $41.5 million to $42.5 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $40.4 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 revenue of $190.0 million to $194.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $175.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Performant Financial Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:20 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Performant Financial Corporation (PFMT) said it expects 2014 revenue of $200.0 million to $240.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $235.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Sempra Energy Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  9:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Sempra Energy (SRE) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.25 to $4.55 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.49 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Wendy’s Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:30:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Wendy’s International, Inc. (WEN) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $0.34 to $0.36 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.35 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

ANSYS Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:10:21 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


ANSYS, Inc. (ANSS) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.73 to $0.76 per share on revenue of $212.0 million to $220.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $217.8 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.25 to $3.37 per share on revenue of $939.0 million to $969.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.32 per share on revenue of $950.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Nationstar Mortgage Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:03:17 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. (NSM) said it expects 2014 earnings of $4.50 to $6.00 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.98 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Carrols Restaurant Guides Revenue In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:01:34 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Carrols Restaurant Group Inc. (TAST) said it expects 2014 revenue of $665.0 million to $680.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $667.9 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Alkermes Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:01:22 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Alkermes, Inc. (ALKS) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.41 to $0.54 per share on revenue of $580.0 million to $610.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.49 per share on revenue of $602.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Pall Narrows Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:01:11 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Pall Corp. (PLL) said it expects fiscal 2014 earnings of $3.35 to $3.45 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $3.30 to $3.50 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $3.41 per share for the year ending July 31, 2014.

Windstream Provides In-line Revenue Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:47 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Windstream Corp. (WIN) said it expects 2014 revenue of $5.85 billion to $6.05 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $5.95 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

LKQ Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:36 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


LKQ Corp. (LKQ) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.30 to $1.40 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.36 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Kohl’s Guides Fiscal Year In-line with Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:26 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) said it expects fiscal 2015 earnings of $4.05 to $4.45 per share on revenue of $19.13 billion to $15.51 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $4.40 per share on revenue of $19.34 billion for the year ending January 31, 2015.

Mylan Guides Revenue Above Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Mylan Inc (MYL) said it expects 2014 earnings of $3.25 to $3.60 per share on revenue of $7.80 billion to $8.20 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.39 per share on revenue of $7.75 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Walter Investment Management Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Walter Investment Management Corp. (WAC) said it expects 2014 non-GAAP earnings of $5.25 to $6.25 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $6.07 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

RTI International Metals Provides Revenue Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:32:14 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI) said it expects 2014 revenue to exceed $800.0 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $866.2 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

West Marine Provides Mixed Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:30:16 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


West Marine Inc. (WMAR) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.39 to $0.45 per share on revenue of $695.0 million to $710.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $683.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Jiayuan.com Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:30:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Jiayuan.com International Ltd. (DATE) said it expects first quarter revenue of $21.2 million to $21.5 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $21.4 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

ACI Worldwide Guides Revenue In-line with Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:28 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


ACI Worldwide Inc. (ACIW) said it expects first quarter revenue of $220.0 million to $230.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $227.1 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 revenue of $1.06 billion to $1.08 billion. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $1.08 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Lamar Advertising Guides In-line
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:25 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR) said it expects first quarter revenue of $290.0 million to $293.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $291.8 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

NTELOS Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


NTELOS Holdings Corp. (NTLS) said it continues to expect Adjusted EBITDA of $140.0 million to $150.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Reaffirms
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX) said it continues to expect 2014 earnings of $8.25 to $8.75 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $8.71 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Negative Guidance
KBR Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:25:32 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


KBR Inc (KBR) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.75 to $2.10 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Endologix Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:14:52 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Endologix Inc (ELGX) said it expects a 2014 non-GAAP loss of $0.17 to $0.04 per share on revenue of $146.0 million to $152.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $161.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

McGrath RentCorp Sees 2014 Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:14:43 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) said it expects 2014 earnings of $1.75 to $1.85 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.92 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Procera Networks Sees Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:07:36 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Procera Networks, Inc. (PKT) said it expects 2014 revenue of approximately $85.9 million. The current consensus estimate is revenue of $96.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

YuMe Sees 2014 Revenue Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:05:55 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


YuMe Inc (YUME) said it expects first quarter revenue of $35.0 million to $36.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $34.9 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company said it expects 2014 revenue of $190.0 million to $200.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is revenue of $203.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Deckers Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:05:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) said it expects first quarter results to range from a loss of $0.16 per share to earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of approximately $279.6 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.11 per share on revenue of $294.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Tumi Guides Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:42 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Tumi Holdings Inc (TUMI) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.92 to $0.96 per share on revenue of $537.55 million to $546.90 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.99 per share on revenue of $545.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

American Public Education Sees Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:01:17 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


American Public Education, Inc (APEI) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.43 to $0.48 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

Gap Sees Fiscal Year Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:00:32 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Gap, Inc. (GPS) said it expects fiscal 2015 earnings of $2.90 to $2.95 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.05 per share for the year ending January 31, 2015.

Ross Stores Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  4:00:00 PM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) said it expects first quarter earnings of $1.11 to $1.15 per share and fiscal 2015 earnings of $4.05 to $4.21 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share for the quarter ending April 30, 2014 and $4.37 per share for the year ending January 31, 2015.

Boulder Brands Lowers Earnings Guidance
Thursday, February 27, 2014  8:31:04 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Boulder Brands Inc (BDBD) said it expects 2014 earnings of $0.39 to $0.44 per share and continues to expect revenue of $540.0 million to $550.0 million. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $0.41 to $0.46 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $0.46 per share on revenue of $545.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

CIRCOR Guides Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  8:03:09 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


CIRCOR International Inc. (CIR) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share on revenue of $200.0 million to $210.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.83 per share on revenue of $220.3 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.

NxStage Medical Guides to a Bigger-than-expected Loss
Thursday, February 27, 2014  7:31:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


NxStage Medical Inc (NXTM) said it expects a first quarter loss of $0.12 to $0.11 per share on revenue of $69.5 million to $70.5 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $67.8 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2014. The company also said it expects a 2014 loss of $0.44 to $0.37 per share on revenue of $283.0 million to $288.0 million. The current consensus estimate is a loss of $0.24 per share on revenue of $286.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Hilton Worldwide Guides Below 2014 Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:56 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) said it expects first quarter earnings of $0.08 to $0.10 per share and 2014 earnings of $0.57 to $0.61 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2014 and $0.62 per share for the year ending December 31, 2014.

Catamaran Sees Earnings Below Estimates
Thursday, February 27, 2014  6:00:00 AM ET
View:   Complete Article | Historical Guidance


Catamaran Corporation (CTRX) said it expects 2014 earnings of $2.04 to $2.19 per share on revenue of $20.0 billion to $21.0 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.42 per share on revenue of $20.1 billion for the year ending December 31, 2014.

CWS Market Review – February 28, 2014

February 28, 2014

“A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” – Barton Biggs

The fourth time’s a charm! For three days in a row, the S&P 500 rallied above 1,850 and was ready to make a new all-time record close, but each time, the bears arrived late in the day to pull us back down. On Thursday, it looked like it was going to happen for a fourth time, but this time, the bulls prevailed, and the S&P 500 closed at 1,854.29 — a new record close.

We’re coming up on the fifth anniversary of a generational low for stocks. The climate back then was dreadful. On Friday, March 6, 2009, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate had hit a 25-year high and the economy had lost a staggering 651,000 non-farm payroll jobs the previous month. That morning, the S&P 500 touched an evil-sounding intra-day low of 666.79, which was the index’s lowest point in more than 12 years. The Dow was in even worse shape. Adjusted for inflation, the Dow was back to where it had been 43 years before.

The closing low came the following Monday, March 9, when the S&P 500 finished at 676.53. That was nine years to the day after the Nasdaq Composite first closed above 5,000. Now it was roughly one-quarter that. The following day, Ben Bernanke told the Council on Foreign Relations that he thought we should review our mark-to-market accounting rules, and a few weeks later, FASB agreed. That gave a huge boost to the rally. Five years on, the S&P 500 has gained 174%. Including dividends, it’s up 205%. In plainer terms, investors have tripled their money in five years. This is one of the greatest rallies in Wall Street history.

So where do we go from here? In this week’s CWS Market Review, we’ll take a look at the economy and how it could impact our portfolios. I’ll also highlight some good news from our Buy List. An entertaining battle of billionaires is helping our position at eBay. The stock just touched an all-time high. Also, Ross Stores just announced that it’s raising its dividend by 17%. This is the 20th year in a row Ross has increased its payout. Not many stocks can make that claim. But before we get to that, let’s look at some recent economic news and what it means for us.

Why the Housing Market Holds the Key

On Thursday, new Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen told Congress that it’s possible the Fed would hold off on its tapering plans if there were a “significantly change” in the economic outlook. Frankly, that’s not really news; the Fed has consistently held this line. But this time, investors are taking it more seriously since the economic news has been less favorable. Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed, who incidentally was the only FOMC member in favor of cutting rates in September 2008, said the Fed should be “very patient” in cutting stimulus. Lousy weather has been a convenient scapegoat for poor numbers, but it’s pretty hard to separate out what’s been caused by the weather and what hasn’t.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods fell 1% last month. But on closer inspection, there were bits of good news in this report. If you exclude transportation, which can be very volatile, then durable-goods orders actually rose 1.1% last month. That was the biggest increase since May. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.3%.

On Wednesday, the Census Bureau said that new-home sales rose to a five-year high. The housing situation is critical in determining where the economy goes from here. Even though new-home sales are up, the current level is still near the low point of previous cycles. That tells you just how crazy the housing boom was. It created a massive, gigantic oversupply of homes. All those empty homes weren’t incinerated. Instead, it’s taken us this long to work off the inventory. Only now is housing inventory back to normal.

This is why I’m optimistic on housing. We’ve finally burned off that excessive inventory, and people are going to need more new homes. Normally, housing leads a recovery, and we didn’t get that this time. As a result, we got a sluggish recovery — and for many folks, there was no recovery at all. In fact, I think we could have very easily dropped back into a recession in 2011-12 if not for the assistance of the Federal Reserve. Budget-cutting from government was a major drag on the economy (please note I’m not saying whether I approve of this or not, just that government austerity was a big factor).

It’s true that mortgage rates have risen. The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed jumped from 3.35% last May to 4.33% now. While higher mortgage rates have crushed the refi market (Wells Fargo just announced more layoffs in their mortgage unit), they don’t appear to be holding back new buyers. The simple fact is that we’ll need more new homes. Despite the poor weather, the economy is slowly gaining steam. That’s why I strongly doubt we’ll see the Fed shelve its tapering plans this year.

Let me also touch on the consumer end of the economy. Retail stocks got off to a terrible start this year. That was reflected on our Buy List with bad performances from Ross Stores and Bed Bath & Beyond, but they weren’t alone. Nearly everyone from Walmart on down had a lousy quarter. The retail sector came back to life this week; even troubled retailers like J.C. Penney and Target saw big gains this week.

I suspect that the bad times for retailers have passed. The facts are clear. Consumers have paid down their debts. The great enemy of consumer spending, the price at the pump, is below its average of the last three years. Lastly, the labor market has improved, though at a very leisurely rate.

The Perils of Complacency

One of concerns I have is unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve’s policies. No matter how you feel about QE, and I do think it’s been a plus for stocks. Massive bond buying distorts the market’s gauging of risk and reward. In short, the Fed has encouraged more risk-taking. That was understandable when everyone was terrified, but what about now?

I’ll give you an example of some possible distortions we’re seeing. Since February 3, the most-shorted stocks, meaning those with the most bets against them, have done the best. The hated stocks have doubled the return of the rest of the market. Tesla is a perfect example. Shorts make up an astounding 37% of their shares, yet the stock has skyrocketed. Shares of Tesla got to $265 this week; a year ago, they were at $35.

Another example is in the biotech sector. In the last ten weeks, the biotech index is up 25%, yet one-third of the companies don’t turn a profit. Facebook broke $71 per share this week, which is more than 90 times last year’s earnings. Some folks are claiming that the rash of big-ticket M&A deals is due to non-existent returns from sitting on cash. Also, everyone’s favorite alternative asset, gold, is having a good year so far (after a very rough 2013). Or we can look at the bond market. The yield spread between junk debt and Treasuries narrowed to its lowest level in six years.

These are all signals that investors are willing to shoulder more risk. On one hand, that’s a good thing. The danger comes when investors become complacent and feel they have little reason to worry. Consider that investors have become programmed to buy every dip. Since the bull market began five years ago, there have been 19 nervous breakdowns of 5% or more. Every single one was turned back.

The problem with risk is the things we don’t know we don’t know. Let’s look at what’s been happening in China’s economy. The growth of their “shadow banking” system has been alarming. No one truly knows its size. What if there’s a major default in China, and that ignites a panic? What’s interesting is that growth from China has helped ease our pain from the Great Recession.

I don’t have a specific worry that I see looming on the horizon. Rather, it’s that I see investors becoming sloppy. I’m not so concerned about a large-scale bubble; I worry about small things like poorly thought-out acquisitions. (Peter Lynch has referred to this as the “Bladder Theory” of corporate finance.) The key for investors is not to be tempted by easy gains, or feel the need to chase stocks for fear of being left behind. Frustrated investors are bad investors. Now let’s look at a long-term strategy that works.

Our Buy List Is up for the Year

I’m happy to report that our Buy List is up slightly for the year, and we’re leading the market. Of course, it’s still very early, but through Thursday, our Buy List is up 0.45% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 0.32% (not including dividends). Bear in mind that only a few weeks ago, we were down nearly 6%. Our Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last seven years in a row. Now let’s look at some recent news from our Buy List stocks.

Just after I sent you last week’s CWS Market Review, Express Scripts (ESRX) had a rough day on the market. Shares of ESRX dropped 4% last Friday. This was despite reporting earnings that were in line with estimates, and they offered a good guidance for this year. I’m a little baffled by the market’s sour reaction, as there was little in this report that anyone should find surprising. The company said it’s aiming to return 50% of its cash flow to investors as dividends or buybacks. I still like Express Scripts and think it’s a good buy up to $83 per share.

Shares of eBay (EBAY) had a good week, and we have our friend Carl Icahn to thank. The multi-gazillionaire released three open letters this week. In them, he’s reiterating his call for eBay to spin off their very lucrative PayPal business. The company has made it abundantly clear that they’re not interested.

The battle between Icahn and eBay’s board is getting ugly. Icahn doesn’t like the fact that Scott Cook and Marc Andreessen are on the board. Cook founded Intuit which competes against PayPal, and Andreessen’s company bought Skype from eBay then sold it to Microsoft.

Pierre Omidyar, eBay’s chairman and founder, shot back and said that Icahn’s views are “false and misleading.” I love it when billionaires fight, especially when it helps our stock. Thanks to the high-profile kerfuffle, shares of eBay rallied above $59 on Thursday and took out the all-time high from 2004. Now Icahn has challenged eBay to a public debate, which sounds a bit nutty. The irony is that ever since Icahn went on the warpath, Omidyar has made $450 million from the eBay rally. My take: I think it’s clear that the board isn’t going to budge. Meanwhile, I’m raising my Buy Below on eBay to $62 per share.

This is actually a lull period for Buy List earnings reports. Our only earnings report for the next several weeks will be Oracle (ORCL), which should report sometime in mid-March. I’m expecting another good report from them. Oracle tested our patience last year, but I think it’s starting to pay off. For Q3, Oracle sees earnings coming in between 68 and 72 cents per share. On Thursday, the share broke above $39 for the first time since Bill Clinton was president. Oracle remains a very good buy up to $41 per share.

Ross Stores Announces Big Dividend Increase

After the closing bell on Thursday, Ross Stores (ROST) reported Q4 earnings of $1.02 per share. This is for the crucial holiday shopping quarter. In November, the deep-discount retailer spooked Wall Street when it said that Q4 earnings would be below forecasts. The Street had been expecting $1.09 per share; Ross said to expect between 97 cents and $1.01 per share.

Overall, Ross is doing quite well. For the entire year, Ross earned $3.88 per share, which was a nice increase over the $3.53 from 2012. The fiscal year for 2012 was 53 weeks, which added 10 cents per share to that year’s earnings.

Michael Balmuth, Ross’s CEO, said, “Our fourth-quarter sales performed in line with our guidance, with earnings that were slightly better than expected, primarily due to above-plan merchandise gross margin. Despite a very promotional retail environment throughout the holiday season, customers responded favorably to the compelling bargains we offered on a wide assortment of fresh and exciting name-brand fashions and gifts.”

Now for some guidance. For Q1, Ross sees earnings coming in between $1.11 and $1.15 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.20. For all of 2014, Ross sees a range of $4.05 to $4.21 per share. The Street was at $4.34 per share. That’s a disappointing forecast, and the shares were weak in the after-hours market.

But there is good news. Ross announced a 17.6% dividend increase. The quarterly payout will rise from 17 cents to 20 cents per share. This is Ross’s 20th year in a row of raising its dividend. At 80 cents per share for the full year, that works out to a yield of 1.1%. I’m raising my Buy Below on Ross to $76 per share.

That’s all for now. Next week, we get several important economic reports. On Monday, the ISM report comes out. Last month’s report was surprisingly weak, so it will be interesting to see if this was a temporary move or the start of a larger trend. The Fed’s Beige Book comes out on Wednesday, followed by the productivity report on Thursday. Then on Friday is the big jobs report for February. The last two jobs reports were noticeably subdued, and it appears that the weather excuse has outlived its welcome. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last seven years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.
2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Quartz Daily Brief—Yanukovych reappears, Japan’s sunny data, euro zone unemployment, landline love

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Viktor Yanukovych reappears in Russia. The ousted Ukrainian president will give a press conference at 5pm Moscow time. The Swiss government is set to issue a decree freezing Yanukovych’s funds.

US economic growth is pared back. The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth is set to be revised down to 2.7%, after an initial estimate of 3.2%, on the back of lower retail sales, which dropped in January to an 18-month low.

India’s growth remains sluggish. We erroneously told you this was happening yesterday, but India actually reports its GDP today. Economists predict it will post fourth-quarter growth of 4.9%—its fifth straight quarter below 5%, and a far cry from the 9% rate it was once used to.

Euro-zone jobs remain stagnant. Analysts expect unemployment to remain unchanged, which would make a whole year that the figure has been unable to duck under 12%. High unemployment, particularly among youths, has been a big issue for many recession-riddled countries, but at least it’s no longer rising.

Rio Carnival opens. Two million people per day are expected to walk the streets of Rio de Janeiro during the annual festival. Historically the event has been well-managed, but with the World Cup less than four months away, people will be watching closely for clues about Brazil’s safety and tourism efforts.

While you were sleeping

Crimea’s airport was briefly seized. Armed—but by all accounts very polite—men arrived at Simferopol International Airport and asked security to leave before looking for Ukranian troops. When none were found they left. Meanwhile, John Kerry warned Russia to back off.

Japan growth: not so shabby. Consumer prices, industrial production and the labor market all showed improvements (paywall), bolstering evidence of recent growth.

EBay rebuffed Icahn. Founder and chairman Pierre Omidyar rejected the activist investor’s proposal to split off eBay’s payment business, saying it was an old idea that the board considered and discarded.

Freddie Mac made a record profit. The second-biggest US mortgage company’s fourth-quarter profits almost doubled to $8.6 billion, leading to a $10.4 billion dividend payment to the US Treasury, which bailed it out during the financial crisis.

Brazilian GDP beat expectations. Thanks to an increase in investments, the economy grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter—more than double the 0.3% growth expected by analysts, and allaying fears of a recession.

The US redesigned its food labels. Michelle Obama, working with the Food and Drug Administration, unveiled a plan to change the nutritional information on food packaging. The number of calories will be printed in bigger and bolder font, while serving sizes will reflect what people actually eat.

Janet Yellen threw up her hands over bitcoin. The online currency cannot be controlled or regulated in any way by the US Federal Reserve, the central bank’s chairwoman told Congress (paywall), describing bitcoin as a “payment innovation that is taking place entirely outside the banking industry.”

Quartz obsession interlude

Heather Timmons and Adam Pasick on how Asia’s flagship airlines are losing out to low-cost carriers. “Specifically, Qantas is getting killed by competition from Virgin Australia, a fast-growing, money-losing budget airline controlled by three other so-called flag carriers—Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways of the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore Airlines. Qantas’s fate is being echoed across Asia and around the world, as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad expand into new territories, and low-cost carriers (LCCs) like Air Asia, Southwest, Easyjet, and Ryanair fight aggressive fare wars against their older rivals.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Breastfeeding is overrated. A study finds no statistically significant health benefits for children who were breastfed, when compared to their bottle-fed siblings.

Taiwan is toast. After a few more decades of Chinese ascendancy, Taiwan’s only hope may be Hong Kong-style autonomy from the mainland.

Taxing banks won’t make them less likely to fail. It will push them toward riskier assets and a sense of entitlement to bailout funds.

“Your an idiot” (sic) is the internet’s most internet phrase. “It is both a symbol and a symptom of our computer-reliant times.”

Bitcoin needs to learn from PayPal’s early problems. Fraud attempts will never end, and guarding against them costs money.

Surprising discoveries

SEC employees’s uncanny timing. Research suggests they are suspiciously good at offloading stocks just ahead of SEC investigations.

George W. Bush is getting his own art exhibition. The presidential paintings will go on display in Dallas this spring.

This guy is going Jurassic Park on passenger pigeons. He’s trying to genetically recreate the species, which went extinct 100 years ago.

Dogs have no shame. All those finger wags and stern, disapproving looks? Total waste of time.

People still use landlines. Some of them would rather give up the internet than their home phones.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, dog tricks, and landline odes to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

ARN Daily Basic: Daily Analysts’ Updates for 2/27/2014

Analysts’ Upgrades

  • Aegion Corp (NASDAQ:AEGN) was upgraded by analysts at Boenning Scattergood from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $26.00 price target on the stock. 20.8% upside from the previous close of $21.52. Tweet This.
  • Almost Family Inc. (NASDAQ:AFAM) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from an “underweight” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $27.97. Tweet This.
  • Altera Co. (NASDAQ:ALTR) was upgraded by analysts at Macquarie from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. Previous closing price of $36.14. Tweet This.
  • Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE:APD) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $133.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $119.00. 13.2% upside from the previous close of $117.47. Tweet This.
  • Arrium Ltd (ASX:ARI) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $1.65 price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Barratt Developments Plc (LON:BDEV) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 470 ($7.82) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BIDU) was upgraded by analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $238.00 price target on the stock. 33.2% upside from the previous close of $178.65. Tweet This.
  • HUGO BOSS (NASDAQ:BOSSY) was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America from an “underperform” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $26.88. Tweet This.
  • Bodycote PLC (LON:BOY) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 770 ($12.81) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Calfrac Well Services (TSE:CFW) was upgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a C$42.00 price target on the stock, up previously from C$36.00. 21.7% upside from the previous close of $34.50. Tweet This.
  • Care.com Inc (NASDAQ:CRCM) was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “neutral” rating to an “overweight” rating. They now have a $24.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $25.00. 26.7% upside from the previous close of $18.94. Tweet This.
  • CSR PLC (NASDAQ:CSRE) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “equal weight” rating to an “overweight” rating. Previous closing price of $47.46. Tweet This.
  • Dycom Industries Inc. (NYSE:DY) was upgraded by analysts at Craig Hallum from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $36.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $26.00. 31.2% upside from the previous close of $27.44. Tweet This.
  • First Quantum Minerals Limited (LON:FQM) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 1,300 ($21.62) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 1,200 ($19.96). Tweet This.
  • First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) was upgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $67.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $62.00. 27.0% upside from the previous close of $52.74. Tweet This.
  • Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE:FST) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $2.01. Tweet This.
  • Glacier Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:GBCI) was upgraded by analysts at Davidson from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $33.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $31.00. 21.1% upside from the previous close of $27.25. Tweet This.
  • Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI) was upgraded by analysts at HSBC from an “underweight” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $3.72. Tweet This.
  • HSBC Holdings plc (LON:HSBA) was upgraded by analysts at Bankhaus Lampe to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 700 ($11.64) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • ICF International Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI) was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $34.30. Tweet This.
  • Insteel Industries Inc. (NASDAQ:IIIN) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from a “hold” rating to an “overweight” rating. Previous closing price of $19.37. Tweet This.
  • J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. They now have a $6.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $7.00. 0.7% upside from the previous close of $5.96. Tweet This.
  • Kazakhmys plc (LON:KAZ) was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. to an “overweight” rating. Tweet This.
  • L Brands (NYSE:LB) was upgraded by analysts at Buckingham Research from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $56.57. Tweet This.
  • Nordson Corp. (NASDAQ:NDSN) was upgraded by analysts at BB&T Corp. from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $84.00 price target on the stock. 17.6% upside from the previous close of $71.41. Tweet This.
  • Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) was upgraded by analysts at Sidoti from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $9.03. Tweet This.
  • Petrochina (NYSE:PTR) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $102.64. Tweet This.
  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from an “underweight” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $77.21. Tweet This.
  • Sony Co. (NYSE:SNE) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $17.38. Tweet This.
  • Synectics Plc (LON:SNX) was upgraded by analysts at FinnCap to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 600 ($9.98) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Superior Energy Services Inc. (NYSE:SPN) was upgraded by analysts at Iberia Capital from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. Previous closing price of $29.01. Tweet This.
  • S&T Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:STBA) was upgraded by analysts at Guggenheim from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $26.00 price target on the stock. 17.0% upside from the previous close of $22.22. Tweet This.
  • TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from an “underweight” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $18.93. Tweet This.
  • Teekay Corp. (NYSE:TK) was upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $80.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $56.00. 43.5% upside from the previous close of $55.76. Tweet This.
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from an “underweight” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $124.28. Tweet This.
  • Travis Perkins plc (LON:TPK) was upgraded by analysts at Beaufort Securities to a “buy” rating. Tweet This.
  • Udg Healthcare PLC (LON:UDG) was upgraded by analysts at Investec to a “hold” rating. Tweet This.
  • WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (NYSE:WCG) was upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $70.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $77.00. 18.2% upside from the previous close of $59.20. Tweet This.
  • Workday Inc. (NASDAQ:WDAY) was upgraded by analysts at FBR Capital Markets from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $150.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $84.00. 49.5% upside from the previous close of $100.35. Tweet This.
  • Weatherford International Ltd (NYSE:WFT) was upgraded by analysts at UBS AG from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $19.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $15.00. 18.3% upside from the previous close of $16.06. Tweet This.
  • NASDAQ (NASDAQ:XLRN) was upgraded by analysts at EVA Dimensions from a “hold” rating to an “overweight” rating. Previous closing price of $46.90. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ upgrades at AnalystRatings.net

Analysts’ Downgrades

  • Argent Energy Trust (TSE:AET.UN) was downgraded by analysts at CIBC to a “sector perform” rating. They now have a C$7.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$9.50. Tweet This.
  • First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG) was downgraded by analysts at TD Securities from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $11.24. Tweet This.
  • AGCO Co. (NASDAQ:AGCO) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating. Previous closing price of $51.63. Tweet This.
  • Aimia (TSE:AIM) was downgraded by analysts at TD Securities from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a C$21.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$22.00. 10.9% upside from the previous close of $18.93. Tweet This.
  • Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BIDU) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating. They now have a $179.60 price target on the stock, down previously from $185.40. 0.5% upside from the previous close of $178.65. Tweet This.
  • BioScrip Inc. (NASDAQ:BIOS) was downgraded by analysts at Sidoti from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $8.01. Tweet This.
  • Ballard Power System (NASDAQ:BLDP) was downgraded by analysts at Byron Capital from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $3.30. Tweet This.
  • Campus Crest Communities Inc (NYSE:CCG) was downgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $9.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $12.00. 3.5% downside from the previous close of $9.33. Tweet This.
  • Campus Crest Communities Inc (NYSE:CCG) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $9.33. Tweet This.
  • Cedar Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:CDR) was downgraded by analysts at Wunderlich from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $6.75 price target on the stock, down previously from $7.00. 8.7% upside from the previous close of $6.21. Tweet This.
  • CNOOC (NYSE:CEO) was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $160.87. Tweet This.
  • Clean Harbors Inc. (NYSE:CLH) was downgraded by analysts at Oppenheimer from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $46.08. Tweet This.
  • Clean Harbors Inc. (NYSE:CLH) was downgraded by analysts at Wedbush from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $50.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $74.00. 8.5% upside from the previous close of $46.08. Tweet This.
  • CTS Corp. (NYSE:CTS) was downgraded by analysts at Sidoti from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $21.00. Tweet This.
  • Cervus Equipment (TSE:CVL) was downgraded by analysts at Raymond James to a “market perform” rating. Tweet This.
  • Cypress Semiconductor Co. (NASDAQ:CY) was downgraded by analysts at Pacific Crest from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. Previous closing price of $10.25. Tweet This.
  • Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE:CY) was downgraded by analysts at Pacific Crest from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. They now have a $11.00 price target on the stock. 7.3% upside from the previous close of $10.25. Tweet This.
  • Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $47.84. Tweet This.
  • Dyax Corp. (NASDAQ:DYAX) was downgraded by analysts at Leerink Swann from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $10.82. Tweet This.
  • ITT Educational Services Inc. (NYSE:ESI) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $36.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $42.00. 11.1% upside from the previous close of $32.40. Tweet This.
  • ITT Educational Services Inc. (NYSE:ESI) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley to an “equal weight” rating. They now have a $28.00 price target on the stock. 13.6% downside from the previous close of $32.40. Tweet This.
  • GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) was downgraded by analysts at Longbow Research from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $30.00 price target on the stock. 21.2% downside from the previous close of $38.07. Tweet This.
  • Globus Medical Inc. (NASDAQ:GMED) was downgraded by analysts at WallachBeth Capital from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $27.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $23.00. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 13.2% upside from the previous close of $23.86. Tweet This.
  • H&T Group Plc (LON:HAT) was downgraded by analysts at Nplus1 Brewin to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 164 ($2.73) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • H&T Group Plc (LON:HAT) was downgraded by analysts at N+1 Singer to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 164 ($2.73) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • IDOX (LON:IDOX) was downgraded by analysts at FinnCap to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 42 ($0.70) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) was downgraded by analysts at B. Riley from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $8.25 price target on the stock, down previously from $8.50. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 13.5% upside from the previous close of $7.27. Tweet This.
  • Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) was downgraded by analysts at MKM Partners from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $13.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 5.1% downside from the previous close of $13.70. Tweet This.
  • Promethean Plc (LON:PRW) was downgraded by analysts at Investec to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 41 ($0.68) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 30 ($0.50). Tweet This.
  • Regus (LON:RGU) was downgraded by analysts at Panmure Gordon to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 250 ($4.16) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) was downgraded by analysts at Liberum Capital to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 3,600 ($59.87) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 3,450 ($57.38). Tweet This.
  • RSA Insurance Group plc (LON:RSA) was downgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to a “reduce” rating. They now have a GBX 85 ($1.41) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • RSA Insurance Group plc (NASDAQ:RSNAY) was downgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd from a “hold” rating to a “reduce” rating. Previous closing price of $8.58. Tweet This.
  • Restaurant Group PLC (LON:RTN) was downgraded by analysts at Beaufort Securities to a “sell” rating. Tweet This.
  • Swisscom AG (NASDAQ:SCMWY) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $58.26. Tweet This.
  • Trican Well Services (TSE:TCW) was downgraded by analysts at Paradigm Capital to a “hold” rating. They now have a C$15.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$16.00. 9.5% upside from the previous close of $13.70. Tweet This.
  • TeraGo (TSE:TGO) was downgraded by analysts at CIBC to an “underperform” rating. They now have a C$6.50 price target on the stock, down previously from C$9.00. 5.2% upside from the previous close of $6.18. Tweet This.
  • TeraGo (TSE:TGO) was downgraded by analysts at TD Securities from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a C$7.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$10.00. 13.3% upside from the previous close of $6.18. Tweet This.
  • Travis Perkins plc (LON:TPK) was downgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. to a “neutral” rating. They now have a GBX 2,040 ($33.93) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 1,910 ($31.76). Tweet This.
  • Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:VECO) was downgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $40.55. Tweet This.
  • Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:VECO) was downgraded by analysts at S&P Equity Research from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $42.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $34.00. 3.6% upside from the previous close of $40.55. Tweet This.
  • WPP PLC (NASDAQ:WPPGY) was downgraded by analysts at Liberum Capital from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $111.07. Tweet This.
  • The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) was downgraded by analysts at SunTrust from a “neutral” rating to a “reduce” rating. They now have a $13.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $15.00. 20.7% downside from the previous close of $16.39. Tweet This.
  • Yoho Resources (CVE:YO) was downgraded by analysts at Dundee Securities from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a C$4.00 price target on the stock, down previously from C$4.10. 12.7% upside from the previous close of $3.55. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ downgrades at Analyst Ratings.net

Analysts’ New Coverage

  • Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:ALSN) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $29.67. Tweet This.
  • Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE:APO) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating and a $34.00 price target on the stock. 6.2% upside from the previous close of $32.01. Tweet This.
  • The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE:BKE) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $44.75. Tweet This.
  • Cara Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:CARA) is now covered by analysts at Needham & Company. They set a “buy” rating and a $27.00 price target on the stock. 74.8% upside from the previous close of $15.45. Tweet This.
  • Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $145.90. Tweet This.
  • Dalradian Resources (TSE:DNA) is now covered by analysts at NBF. They set an “outperform” rating and a C$1.20 price target on the stock. 46.3% upside from the previous close of $0.82. Tweet This.
  • ChannelAdvisor Corp (NASDAQ:ECOM) is now covered by analysts at William Blair. They set an “outperform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $43.26. Tweet This.
  • EP Energy Corp (NYSE:EPE) is now covered by analysts at Citigroup Inc.. They set a “buy” rating and a $18.00 price target on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Express Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPR) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $18.60. Tweet This.
  • Francesca’s Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:FRAN) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set an “outperform” rating and a $25.00 price target on the stock. 31.9% upside from the previous close of $18.96. Tweet This.
  • KaloBios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:KBIO) is now covered by analysts at JMP Securities. They set an “outperform” rating and a $8.00 price target on the stock. 154.8% upside from the previous close of $3.14. Tweet This.
  • Manhattan Associates Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “buy” rating and a $43.00 price target on the stock. 14.3% upside from the previous close of $37.62. Tweet This.
  • Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “neutral” rating and a $39.00 price target on the stock. 4.1% upside from the previous close of $37.47. Tweet This.
  • Navistar International Corp. (NYSE:NAV) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $36.91. Tweet This.
  • Osage Exploration and Development (NASDAQ:OEDV) is now covered by analysts at Noble Financial. They set a “buy” rating and a $2.00 price target on the stock. 90.5% upside from the previous close of $1.05. Tweet This.
  • OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:OGXI) is now covered by analysts at CRT Capital. They set a “buy” rating and a $20.00 price target on the stock. 73.8% upside from the previous close of $11.51. Tweet This.
  • Oracle Co. (NASDAQ:ORCL) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “buy” rating and a $48.00 price target on the stock. 24.7% upside from the previous close of $38.50. Tweet This.
  • PTC Inc (NASDAQ:PTC) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “buy” rating and a $47.00 price target on the stock. 19.8% upside from the previous close of $39.22. Tweet This.
  • Radware Ltd. (NASDAQ:RDWR) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set an “outperform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $17.06. Tweet This.
  • Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set an “outperform” rating and a $83.00 price target on the stock. 15.8% upside from the previous close of $71.69. Tweet This.
  • SAP Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:SAP) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $79.53. Tweet This.
  • SolGold plc (LON:SOLG) is now covered by analysts at SP Angel. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Tweet This.
  • Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX) is now covered by analysts at B. Riley. They set a “buy” rating and a $30.00 price target on the stock. 36.1% upside from the previous close of $22.05. Tweet This.
  • TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set a “neutral” rating and a $63.00 price target on the stock. 4.5% upside from the previous close of $60.29. Tweet This.
  • Trevena Inc (NASDAQ:TRVN) is now covered by analysts at Needham & Company. They set a “buy” rating and a $14.00 price target on the stock. 75.7% upside from the previous close of $7.97. Tweet This.
  • Trevena Inc (NASDAQ:TRVN) is now covered by analysts at Needham & Company LLC. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $7.97. Tweet This.
  • Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) is now covered by analysts at Jefferies Group. They set a “buy” rating and a $46.00 price target on the stock. 18.6% upside from the previous close of $38.80. Tweet This.
  • Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set an “outperform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $37.90. Tweet This.
  • Vocera Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:VCRA) is now covered by analysts at Avondale Partners. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $16.60. Tweet This.
  • Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “overweight” rating and a $52.00 price target on the stock. 12.2% upside from the previous close of $46.35. Tweet This.
  • WABCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE:WBC) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $100.20. Tweet This.
  • Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) is now covered by analysts at Wedbush. They set a “neutral” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $23.71. Tweet This.
  • Get today’s most recent analysts’ new coverage at Analyst Ratings.net

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday 27/02/2014

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, February 27, 2014

 

Summary
The Dow Future has retreated 44 points to 16134. The US Dollar Index gained 0.058 points to 80.471. Gold has gained 3.765 dollars to 1331.350. Silver has climbed 0.2150 dollars to 21.3115. The Dow Industrials advanced 18.75 points, at 16198.41, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.04 points, last seen at 1845.16. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 5.52 points to 4293.11. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
Has Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Run Out Of Gas?
Wednesday Feb 26th

Coffee – Starbucks’ Achilles’ Heel
Wednesday Feb 26th

Bitcoin Bites The Dust
Tuesday Feb 25th

Key Events for Thursday

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 691.4K)

Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 835.4K)

Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 491.5K)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 335K; previous 336K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -3K)

Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2981000)

Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +37K)

8:30 AM ET. Jan Advance Report on Durable Goods

Total Orders (expected -2%; previous -4.3%)

Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -3.7%)

Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -1.6%)

9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.1%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1.3%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1443B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous -250B)

11:00 AM ET. Feb Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of 10th District Manufacturing

Manufacturing Activity Index (previous -8)

Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 45)

Manufacturing Composite Index (previous 5)

6-Month Composite Expectations Index (previous 26)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

430 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 80.471 +0.058 +0.07%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 21.5500 +0.0700 +0.32%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.11290 +0.00010 +0.01%
Euro/US Dollar 1.365620 -0.003035 -0.22%
JAPANESE YEN Mar 2014 0.009819 +0.000059 +0.60%
SWISS FRANC Mar 2014 1.1228 +0.0004 +0.04%

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 79.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.91. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off February’s low, the reaction high crossing at 138.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 137.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 135.62.

The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6531 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 1.7043 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.6821. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.7043. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6531. Second support is February’s low crossing at 1.6247.

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11169 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January’s low, December’s high crossing at .11373 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at .11301. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at .11373. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11169. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .11067.

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off last week’s high, this month’s low crossing at 88.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 91.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January decline crossing at 92.32 . First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 89.27. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 88.99.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March renews the rally off January’s low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .10026 is the next upside target. If March extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at .9672 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .9920. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at .10026. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at .9725. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .9672.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Apr 2014 102.39 -0.20 -0.19%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Apr 2014 3.0226 -0.0157 -0.52%
NATURAL GAS Apr 2014 4.479 -0.062 -1.37%
RBOB GASOLINE Apr 2014 2.9660 -0.0197 -0.66%
POWERSHARES DWA ENERGY MOMENT 55.018 -0.492 -0.89%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 60.260 +0.320 +0.53%

ENERGIES

April crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five days. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 103.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 112.24. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.65.

April heating oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off January’s low, last August’s high crossing at 313.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 308.48. Second resistance is last August’s high crossing at 313.24. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.53.

April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews this month’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 316.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 303.94. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 316.32. First support is today’s low crossing at 296.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.96.

April Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.616 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.382 is the next downside target. If April renews this winter’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 6.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 5.209. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 6.108. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.382. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 4.338.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA May 2014 2945 +13 +0.44%
COFFEE May 2014 179.20 +1.50 +0.84%
ORANGE JUICE-A May 2014 146.85 +0.30 +0.20%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 58.3996 -0.1704 -0.29%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 52.48 +1.86 +3.59%

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2013-decline crossing at 17.11. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2013-decline crossing at 19.02 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.35. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 27.87 is the next downside target. If May renews this winter’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.92 is the next upside target.

May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 17.20. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 85.37 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the late-January low, monthly resistance crossing at 92.20 is the next upside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN May 2014 459.00 -2.00 -0.44%
OATS May 2014 452.25 -8.50 -1.85%
WHEAT May 2014 602.0 -3.5 -0.58%
TEUCRIUM CORN 31.9501 -0.2999 -0.94%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 46.27 -0.28 -0.61%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 6.0600 +0.0001 0.00%
SOYBEANS May 2014 1404.50 +7.50 +0.54%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2014 1171.750 +2.500 +0.21%
SOYBEAN MEAL May 2014 456.6 +2.9 +0.64%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 24.1399 +0.1299 +0.53%

GRAINS

March Corn closed down a 1/4-cents at 4.55 1/2.

March corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday but not before posting a four month high in early trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 4.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 4.59. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 4.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.38.

March wheat closed down 15-cents at 6.00.

March wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January’s low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 6.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.35. First support is today’s low crossing at 5.99 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.90.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 11 1/2-cents at 6.79.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.60 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 7.07 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 7.07 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.60 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 6.70 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.47 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 7.07 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.85 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 7.07 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.47 1/2. Second support is January’s low crossing at 5.95 1/4.

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March soybeans closed up 8 1/4-cents at 14.07 1/4.

March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 14.16 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.35 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 14.08. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 14.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.35 1/4.

March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at 468.30.

March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 473.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 447.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 470.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 473.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 456.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 447.50.

March soybean oil closed higher 62-pts. at 41.20.

March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 41.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 41.39. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2014-decline crossing at 41.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.12.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 16198.41 +18.75 +0.12%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 4293.11 +5.52 +0.13%
S&P 500 CASH 1845.16 +0.04 0.00%
SPDR S&P 500 184.90 +0.06 +0.03%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 13.45 +0.25 +1.86%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 117.45 +0.82 +0.70%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February’s low. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 3764.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3585.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 3702.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3764.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3665.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3585.13.

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday after spiking above resistance marked by December’s high crossing at 1846.50. March rose above its record close due to an unexpected increase in new-home sales and a rally among retailers. However, a decline in energy and utility stocks pulled the index into negative territory for the day. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1802.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 1856.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1834.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1802.95.

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday but remains below the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 16,281.60. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off February’s low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 16,432.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,894.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 16,281.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 16,432.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16,113.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,894.95.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2014 134.65625 +0.56250 +0.42%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.69 +0.01 +0.02%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014 121.046875 +0.132813 +0.11%
ULTRA T-BONDS Jun 2014 143.43750 +0.84375 +0.59%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.840 0.000 0.00%

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed up 20/32’s at 134-07.

March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February’s low, this month’s high crossing at 134-30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 132-12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 134-08. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 134-30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 132-12. Second support the 38% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 132-09.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE May 2014 174.950 +0.450 +0.26%
LEAN HOGS Apr 2014 101.700 +0.675 +0.67%
LIVE CATTLE Apr 2014 145.250 +0.725 +0.50%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 29.8099 +0.3999 +1.34%

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed up $0.45 at $101.02.

April hog closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 102.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 101.57. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 102.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.95.

April cattle closed up $2.12 at 144.52.

April cattle gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday thereby renewing the rally off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Now that April has taken out January’s high, upside targets will be hard to project with the market trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 147.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.97.

April feeder cattle closed up $1.40 at $173.92.

April Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 173.95. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.28.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Apr 2014 1332.2 +4.2 +0.32%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 128.07 -1.14 -0.89%
SILVER May 2014 21.395 +0.106 +0.50%
PALLADIUM Jun 2014 735.35 +2.05 +0.28%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 20.4801 +0.6601 +3.23%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 43.270 -0.600 -1.39%

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December’s low, the 75% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1368.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1290.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1368.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1398.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1320.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1290.30.

May silver closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.503 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off the late-January low, the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 22.802 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 22.215. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 22.802. First support is today’s low crossing at 21.120. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.595.

May copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends the decline off this month’s high, February’s low crossing at 317.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.86. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 331.30. First support is today’s low crossing at 318.80. Second support is February’s low crossing at 317.75.


 

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