My 2013 in review on my blog

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

A New York City subway train holds 1,200 people. This blog was viewed about 4,000 times in 2013. If it were a NYC subway train, it would take about 3 trips to carry that many people.

Click here to see the complete report.

Quartz Daily Brief—China oks IPOs, US domestic drones, Sochi security, Zappos holacracy

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Russia tightens security. Authorities ordered heightened safeguards at railway stations and other facilities after two suicide bomb attacks. But the Russian Olympic Committee said there was no need for extra precautions in Sochi because “everything necessary already has been done.”

Israel releases Palestinian prisoners. About two dozen prisoners will be let out ahead of New Year’s day peace talks between US secretary of state John Kerry, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

US home prices rise. The October Case-Shiller housing-price index is expected to show that the two-year trend in rising real-estate prices isn’t done yet.

Obamacare ends the year in surprisingly good shape. As the official responsible for day-to-day implementation steps down, the new US healthcare law has a decent shot of hitting its target of 7 million enrollments next year.

While you were sleeping

China opens the IPO spigot. After a year-long freeze, regulators approved the mainland public offerings of five firms, in an attempt to reboot the country’s financial markets.

Abe is blacklisted in China. Beijing categorically refused to meet with the Japanese prime minister after his visit to a controversial war shrine.

Berkshire Hathaway’s pipeline play. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate will buy a Philipps 66 unit that makes chemicals to improve pipeline flow in a stock swap valued at about $1.4 billion.

An enormous railway explosion in North Dakota. A train car carrying crude oil collided with another train, causing a huge fireball, but amazingly no one was injured.

Drones will be tested from Alaska to New York. US federal aviation regulators will begin testing unmanned aerial vehicles at six sites ahead of establishing rules for their general use.

The rubber met the road, and a tire deal failed. Cross-border legal woes put an end to the $2.5 billion takeover of US Cooper Tire by India’s Apollo Tyre, leaving behind a skidmark of bitter recriminations.

Michael Schumacher is still in critical condition. The Formula One racing star is in an induced coma in a French hospital after a skiing accident.

Quartz obsession interlude

Leo Mirani on the prematurely reported death of Facebook. ”People young and old are indeed signing up to networks that are not called Facebook. But they are not leaving Facebook. … Social networking is not a zero-sum game. Just as it is possible to have several groups of friends, or several sets of interests, or even different email accounts, it is conceivable that-free thinking individuals will spread out their interests across sites that offer them different things.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

In no one we trust. The bonds between fellow citizens are a casualty of growing income inequality.

How to stop a war between China and Japan: sell the disputed islands to environmentalists.

2013 was a good year for US financial reform, thanks in part to massive scandals such as the “London Whale.”

The free market will be bitcoin’s undoing. Here’s one scenario that could make the price of bitcoins plunge.

Surprising discoveries

A company without managers or job titles. Meet the radical holacrats at Zappos.

The TSA bot will screen you now. Some airports are using machines instead of people (paywall) to verify fliers’ identities.

Germs communicate with fermented mammal sweat, customizing their hosts’ secretions to send messages to each other.

Sharks can tweet… It’s a way to save their lives, not yours.

…And dolphins get high. Chewing on puffer fish releases a nerve toxin that has a narcotic effect in low doses.

A cereal mogul convinced everyone that coffee is bad for kids. It’s not, but we’re still scared of “Mr. Coffee Nerves.”

Our best wishes for a productive day and a happy new year. Please send any news, comments, shark @-replies and coffee myths to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday 30/12/2013

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Monday, December 30, 2013

Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future has advanced 9 points to 16430. The US Dollar Index softened 0.150 points to 80.219. Gold has eased 5.69 dollars to 1204.20. Silver is declining 0.1640 dollars to 19.6900. The Dow Industrials softened 1.47 points, at 16478.41, while the S&P 500 eased 0.62 points, last seen at 1841.40. The Nasdaq Composite moved down 12.21 points to 4154.97. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
Only 3 days left!
Sunday Dec 29th

15 Hand-Picked Charts to Help You See What’s Coming in the Markets
Saturday Dec 28th

Chart to Watch – Coffee
Friday Dec 27th

Key Events for Monday

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position

10:00 AM ET. Nov Pending Home Sales Index

Current (previous 102.1)

MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (previous -0.6%)

YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous -1.6%)

10:30 AM ET. Dec Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Business Activity Index (previous 1.9)

Manufacturing Production Index (previous 16.9)

3:00 PM ET. Dec Agricultural Prices

Farm Prices, M/M (previous -3.2%)


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 80.219 -0.150 -0.19%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 21.59 -0.04 -0.19%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.07080 +0.00010 +0.01%
Euro/US Dollar 1.37536 +0.00117 +0.09%
JAPANESE YEN Mar 2014 0.009508 -0.000007 -0.07%
SWISS FRANC Mar 2014 1.1238 +0.0027 +0.24%

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the reaction low crossing at 79.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December’s low, November’s high crossing at 81.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.18. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First support is December’s low crossing at 79.50. Second support is October’s low crossing at 79.35.

The March Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish and will need to see additional gains before turning bullish again. If March extends the rally off November’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 142.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 136.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 138.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 142.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 136.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 135.26.

The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.6203 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1.6570. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 1.6738. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6364. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6203.

The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional gains are needed before these momentum indicators will turn bullish. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11616 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .11118 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .11373. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at .11616. First support is the reaction low crossing at .11118. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10979.

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September’s high, weekly support crossing at 92.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 94.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.46. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.78. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.93. Second support is weekly support crossing at 92.13.

The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends this year’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at .9421 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9677 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9677. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9793. First support is the overnight low crossing at .9489. Second support is weekly support crossing at .9421.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Feb 2014 99.81 -0.51 -0.51%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Feb 2014 3.0830 -0.0091 -0.29%
NATURAL GAS Mar 2014 4.404 +0.068 +1.58%
RBOB GASOLINE Feb 2014 2.7960 -0.0135 -0.48%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY 54.969 -0.041 -0.07%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 60.394 -0.146 -0.24%

ENERGIES

February Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low but remains above the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.15. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 100.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.52.

February heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 314.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 311.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.64. Second support is December’s low crossing at 295.22.

February unleaded gas was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November’s low, August’s high crossing at 286.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 284.32. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 286.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.86. Second support is December’s low crossing at 262.96.

February Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.288 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November’s low, the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 4.611 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 4.578. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 4.611. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.408. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.288.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Mar 2014 2752 -33 -1.20%
COFFEE Mar 2014 116.65 +0.30 +0.26%
ORANGE JUICE-A Mar 2014 138.25 -3.90 -2.81%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 55.4172 +0.5672 +1.02%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 43.881 +0.421 +0.96%

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 12.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Friday while extending this month’s trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 28.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 27.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 15.64 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off November’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 85.28 is the next upside target.


 

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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Mar 2014 425.75 -1.75 -0.41%
OATS Mar 2014 352.25 -3.75 -1.05%
WHEAT Mar 2014 605.75 -3.25 -0.53%
TEUCRIUM CORN 30.96 -0.09 -0.29%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 43.7940 +0.1940 +0.44%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 5.8201 +0.0201 +0.35%
SOYBEANS Mar 2014 1306.25 -7.50 -0.57%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2014 1154.500 +3.000 +0.26%
SOYBEAN MEAL Mar 2014 424.5 -2.7 -0.63%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 23.6601 +0.1401 +0.60%

GRAINS

March corn was lower overnight as it extends last Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week’s high, December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below December’s low would renews this year’s decline while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off December’s low. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.49 1/2 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.49 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight, as it remains poised to extend the decline off October’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.11 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.30. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.00 3/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/4-cents at 6.44 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall’s decline, weekly support crossing at 6.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.75 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.43. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.29.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.62. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6.32. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 13.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.42. First support is the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12.56 1/4.

March soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 425.90 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 461.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 440.40. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 461.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 425.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 417.60.

March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, monthly support crossing at 37.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.09. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 41.36. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 39.11. Second support is monthly support crossing at 37.45.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 16478.41 -1.47 -0.01%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 4154.97 -12.21 -0.29%
S&P 500 CASH 1841.40 -0.62 -0.03%
SPDR S&P 500 183.800 -0.055 -0.03%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 12.01 +0.28 +2.33%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 115.08 -0.15 -0.13%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday’s setback. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3505.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 3587.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3505.73. Second support is December’s low crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1799.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1839.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1799.41. Second support is December’s low crossing at 1755.00.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2014 128.40625 +0.12500 +0.10%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.690 +0.002 0.00%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2014 119.343750 +0.078125 +0.07%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2014 136.43750 +0.18750 +0.14%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.85 +0.02 +0.08%

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 125-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130-11. First support is December’s low crossing at 128-01. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Mar 2014 167.8 +0.6 +0.36%
LEAN HOGS Feb 2014 85.650 +0.350 +0.41%
LIVE CATTLE Feb 2014 134.950 +0.800 +0.59%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 27.1990 +0.1390 +0.51%

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed up $0.35 at $85.65.

February hog closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October’s high, the 62% retracement level of the March-October rally crossing at 84.54 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.62. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 85.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-October rally crossing at 84.54.

February cattle closed up $0.80 at 134.95.

February cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November’s low, October’s high crossing at 135.40 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off October’s high, November’s low crossing at 131.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 135.25. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 135.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 132.12. Second support is November’s low crossing at 131.27.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $167.00.

January Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November’s low, October’s high crossing at 169.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 168.45. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 169.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 163.87.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Feb 2014 1203.4 -10.6 -0.87%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 117.07 +0.33 +0.28%
SILVER Mar 2014 19.655 -0.394 -1.96%
PALLADIUM Mar 2014 711.10 -0.85 -0.12%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 43.84 -0.97 -2.22%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 39.7695 +0.2295 +0.58%

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the short covering gains off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1224.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February renews the decline off August’s high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1224.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1267.50. First support is December’s low crossing at 1186.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

March silver was lower overnight as it extends this month’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 20.480 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this month’s trading range. If March renews the decline off August’s high, June’s low crossing at 18.600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 20.480. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 20.920. First support is December’s low crossing at 18.890. Second support is June’s low crossing at 18.600.

March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 355.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 342.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 355.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.64.


 

Top Stocks
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. TWTR TWITTER INC 63.82 -9.49 -14.89% 59,349,525 +90    Entry Signal
2. GE GENERAL ELECTRIC 27.8300 0.0000 0.00% 17,753,157 +90    Entry Signal
3. ORCL ORACLE CORP 37.98 +0.29 +0.76% 14,769,884 +90    Entry Signal
4. T AT&T 35.18 +0.02 +0.06% 13,411,666 +100    Entry Signal
5. INTC INTEL 25.60 -0.10 -0.39% 12,016,005 +100    Entry Signal
6. CLF CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES 26.525 +1.515 +5.71% 10,087,631 +100    Entry Signal
7. FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN 37.505 +0.545 +1.45% 8,655,234 +100    Entry Signal
8. WLT WALTER ENERGY 16.715 +1.115 +6.67% 8,190,511 +100    Entry Signal
9. LSI LSI CORP COMMON 10.9901 +0.0101 +0.09% 6,957,999 +90    Entry Signal
10. HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 28.185 -0.125 -0.44% 6,397,846 +90    Entry Signal
Top Futures
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. HG.H14.E COPPER Mar 2014 3.3860 +0.0010 +0.03% 9,509 +100    Entry Signal
2. LC.Q14 LIVE CATTLE Aug 2014 128.0 0.0 0.00% 2,716 +100    Entry Signal
3. NG.N14 NATURAL GAS Jul 2014 4.211 -0.028 -0.66% 2,118 +100    Entry Signal
4. YM.Z13.E DJ $5 (E-MINI) Dec 2013 16209.46 +34.46 +0.21% 2,099 +100    Entry Signal
5. NG.J15 NATURAL GAS Apr 2015 4.069 +0.009 +0.22% 1,757 +100    Entry Signal
6. NG.J14.E NATURAL GAS Apr 2014 4.234 +0.056 +1.35% 1,553 +100    Entry Signal
7. NG.Q14 NATURAL GAS Aug 2014 4.221 -0.028 -0.66% 1,229 +100    Entry Signal
8. CU.F14.E CHICAGO ETHANOL Jan 2014 1.8925 +0.0325 +1.73% 671 +100    Entry Signal
9. HG.Z13.E COPPER Dec 2013 3.4700 +0.0205 +0.60% 649 +100    Entry Signal
10. NG.M14.E NATURAL GAS Jun 2014 4.234 +0.053 +1.27% 231 +100    Entry Signal

ADVFN – Report dei mercati 30/12/2013

MERCATO USA
Wall Street chiude in leggero calo, crolla Twitter

A New York i principali indici hanno chiuso l’ultima seduta della settimana in leggero calo. Il Dow Jones ha lasciato sul terreno lo 0,01%, l‘S&P500 lo 0,03% e il Nasdaq Composite lo 0,25%.

Sul fronte societario Twitter -13,04%. Macquarie ha tagliato il rating sul titolo del social media a underperform da neutral. Male anche il leader dei social network Facebook (-3,97%).

Textron +1,13%. Il proprietario di Cessna e Bell ha annunciato che acquisterà la rivale Beechcraft per 1,4 miliardi di dollari. Secondo gli esperti si tratta di una delle fusioni del settore aerospaziale e della difesa degli Stati Uniti più importante degli ultimi anni.

General Motors -1,4%. Il produttore di Detroit ha comunicato che richiamerà 1,46 milioni di auto in Cina per un problema alla pompa del carburante. I veicoli interessati sono 1,218 milioni Buick e 243 mila Chevrolet. WPCS International +67,55% dopo aver messo a punto una piattaforma che permettere il trading sulla valuta virtuale bitcoin.

MERCATI ASIATICI

Borsa Tokyo: nel 2013 miglior performance dal 1972

Nikkei positivo in avvio di ottava. L’indice giapponese ha terminato l’ultimo giorno di negoziazione del 2013 a quota 16291,31, con un progresso dello 0,69%. Grazie alla politica di lotta alla deflazione del primo ministro Shinzo Abe, il Nikkei ha guadagnato oltre il 50% dall’inizio dell’anno e si appresta a realizzare la sua miglior performance dal 1972. Le quotazioni si mantengono al di sopra dei 16000 punti, dimostrando di possedere i requisiti per proseguire il cammino di crescita in direzione di obiettivi a 16500 punti, sul lato alto del canale rialzista disegnato dai minimi di giugno. Discese fino a 15755 non rappresentano una minaccia la realizzazione di tali prospettive. Sotto questo livello probabile la ricopertura del gap rialzista del 19/12 a 15588 punti ed il test della trend line che sale dai minimi di novembre, in transito in questa stessa area.

Per preservare lo scenario rialzista, i prezzi dovranno comunque mantenersi al di sopra di area 14500, riferimento strategico definito dalla base del citato canale ed area di transito della media mobile a 100 giorni. Sotto questo supporto scatterebbe invece un primo campanello d’allarme che potrebbe anticipare ribassi ben piu’ ampi con un’ottica temporale piu’ estesa. Positivo il Topix che ha terminato la seduta a 1302,29 punti (+0,95%).  A sostenere l’indice l’ulteriore indebolimento dello yen che ha favorito i titoli esportatori: ben comprata Pioneer (+1,85%), Toyota (+0,47%) e Mazda (+0,37%). Acquisti su Nec Corp in progresso del 3,04%. Tra i finanziari, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group sale del 2,51%, Mizuho Financial Group del 3,17%. Contrastate le altre principali piazze asiatiche: Seoul registra un progresso dello 0,45%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng cede lo 0,06%. Segno meno per la borsa di Shanghai, -0,20%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Borse europee poco mosse

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto la seduta poco mosse. Il Cac40 di Parigi guadagna lo 0,16%, il Ftse100 di Londra lo 0,07%, l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,3%. Poco sotto la parità il Dax30 di Francoforte (-0,07%). Sul fronte societario Lloyds Banking Group +0,1%. Il governo britannico potrebbe cedere l’intera partecipazione (pari al 33% del capitale) detenuta nella banca nei prossimi 12 mesi. Lo scrive il Daily Telegraph. Sanofi -0,7%.

La FDA (Food & Drug Administration) ha respinto la domanda presentata dal gruppo francese per la commercializzazione negli Stati Uniti del farmaco Lemtrada, trattamento contro la sclerosi. Lemtrada è prodotto da Genzyme, società acquistata da Sanofi nel 2011 per circa 20 miliardi di dollari. Carmat +3%. Il cuore artificiale trapiantato ad un paziente lo scorso 18 dicembre va bene. Lo ha detto uno dei chirurghi che ha eseguito l’operazione. Il cuore artificiale è stato sviluppato dalla società francese.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Borsa italiana poco mossa in avvio. Bene Fiat, vola Premafin, in rosso MPS

Il Ftse Mib segna +0,02%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,06%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,29%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,22%.

Borse europee in leggero rialzo. Venerdì scorso a New York l’S&P 500 ha terminato a -0,03%, il Nasdaq Composite a -0,25% e il Dow Jones a -0,01%. Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in parità. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha chiuso a +0,69%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng ha fatto segnare +0,01%.

Fiat (+1,5%) positiva in avvio di seduta grazie alle indiscrezioni riportate da Milano Finanza in base alle quali il Lingotto sarebbe vicino a un accordo con Veba per l’acquisizione del 41,5% di Chrysler ancora detenuto dal fondo. Altre fonti parlano di ottimismo riguardo alle trattative per il rinnovo del contratto degli 80mila dipendenti del gruppo in Italia (compresi quelli di CNH Industrial): i negoziati riprenderanno il 13-14  Gennaio.

Ancora forti acquisti su Premafin (+11,11% a 0,1890 euro, asta di volatilità) dopo il balzo di venerdì scorso (+19%). Tra oggi e domani dovrebbe essere firmato l’atto di fusione tra Unipol (+2,4%) e il gruppo Fondiaria-Sai (+0,8%), con conseguente deposito di quest’ultimo al registro delle imprese entro il 1° gennaio: se questa tempistica sarà rispettata il titolo della newco sarà quotato a partire da lunedì 6 Gennaio.

Banca MPS (-1,6%) entra in contrattazione dopo un’apertura prolungata dalle difficoltà di fare prezzo per eccesso di ribasso. Antonella Mansi, presidente della Fondazione MPS, ha dichiarato al Corriere che si augura che il presidente Profumo e l’a.d. Viola restino al loro posto: la decisione di rinviare l’aumento di capitale di Rocca Salimbeni non è infatti, secondo Mansi, un atto di sfiducia nei confronti del management, ma solo un posticipo della tempistica dell’operazione su cui si basa il piano di rilancio elaborato da Profumo e Viola. Mansi ha aggiunto che l’obiettivo è evitare la nazionalizzazione di MPS (che avverrebbe in caso di mancato rimborso dei 4 miliardi di euro di Monti bond).

Sabato l’assemblea in seconda convocazione ha deciso di rinviare l’aumento di capitale da 3 miliardi di euro a non prima del 12 maggio 2014. Secondo indiscrezioni il presidente Alessandro Profumo, che spingeva per la ricapitalizzazione a gennaio, potrebbe lasciare l’incarico.


NUOVA SEZIONE DI ADVFN, ANALISI DEI MERCATI!
Da una sinergia fra ADVFN e Proiezionidiborsa nasce la rubrica: Analisi dei Mercati!

Analisi e Segnali di Borsa quotidiani dai professionisti della finanza.

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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Nonostante la flessione subita negli ultimi due mesi, il quadro grafico di A2A resta promettente. Le quotazioni si sono infatti mantenute al di sopra della media mobile a 100 giorni, attualmente passante da area 0,77. Per allentare le tensioni di breve termine sarebbero tuttavia necessarie reazioni oltre 0,8515. Conferme oltre area 0,88 creerebbero poi le condizioni per un nuovo test dei massimi annuali a 0,9190 alimentando le speranze di un ritorno alla crescita in direzione di obiettivi più ambiziosi in area 0,99/1,00 ed eventualmente verso 1,03/1,04, picco di ottobre 2011. In caso di violazione del supporto in area 0,77, i prezzi potrebbero invece andare incontro ad una fase ribassista più estesa che, al di sotto dei minimi di dicembre a 0,7585, si farebbe più critica prospettando la rivisitazione di area 0,70 e con un’ottica temporale di medio lungo termine di area 0,60.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo intervenire al superamento di 0,8515 per il test di 0,9190, stop sotto 0,8195.
Per chi già detiene il titolo mantenere uno stop subito sotto 0,7585, incrementare oltre 0,8515 per il test di 0,9190 e dei target successivi a 1,00 e 1,04 euro.

Finmeccanica ha superato nel corso della seduta di venerdi’ 20 dicembre sia la trend line ribassista disegnata dal top di ottobre sia la media mobile a 50 giorni, attualmente supporto a 5,35 euro. Il titolo e’ reduce da una fase di ripiegamento intrapresa dai massimi di ottobre a 5,96 euro che si e’ limitata a testare con i minimi di inizio dicembre a 4,85 euro il 50% di ritracciamento del rialzo dai minimi di luglio e la media mobile a 100 giorni. La flessione vista nell’ultimo bimestre quindi potrebbe essere anche solo una correzione, ovvero una interruzione temporanea, dell’uptrend in atto dai minimi di luglio. Ulteriori conferme in questo senso verrebbero oltre area 5,65, con target in quel caso non solo il picco di ottobre ma anche il gap ribassista del 28 luglio 2011, lasciato tra 6,45 e 6,86 euro. Il mancato superamento di area 5,65 e la violazione di 5,35 potrebbero comportare la ricopertura del gap rialzista del 19 dicembre con base a 5,21. Discese fino a quei livelli sono compatibili con il successivo recupero dell’uptrend. Sotto i 5,20 euro probabile invece il proseguimento della discesa almeno fino a 4,85/90 euro.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo intervenire alla rottura di 5,65 per il test dei 6 euro, stop sotto 5,40.
Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo mantenere a 5,20 euro lo stop per le posizioni in essere, incrementare oltre 5,65 per il test dei 6 euro.

Intesa SanPaolo nelle ultime due settimane ha guadagnato terreno portandosi a ridosso della resistenza a 1,8040 euro. In caso di superamento di questo livello il titolo avrebbe vita facile nel portare un attacco al massimo annuale a 1,8630, riferimento determinante in ottica di lungo periodo: al di sopra dello stesso verrebbe infatti riattivato il movimento ascendente in forza dall’estate 2012 con obiettivo a 2,05/2,10, lato alto del canale ascendente ipotizzabile dal luglio scorso. Discese sotto 1,72 anticiperebbero invece un test dei recenti minimi di area 1,65, sostegno che se violato con conferma in chiusura di seduta creerebbe le premesse per una correzione significativa in direzione di 1,50 almeno.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 1,8040 per 1,8630, stop sotto 1,77.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 1,8630 per 2,05, ridurre sotto 1,72 e uscire alla violazione di 1,65.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Lunedì 30 Dicembre 2013
09:00 EUR Vendite al dettaglio Spagna (Annuale)
10:00 EUR Livello di fiducia delle aziende Italia
13:00 ZAR Bilancia Commerciale Sudafricana
16:00 USD Abitazioni in vendita (Mensile)
16:30 USD Indice Affari Dallas Fed Mfg


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HEADLINES
Eads: Zhejiang Loon Airlines conferma ordine per 20 Airbus A320 dal valore di 1,9 miliardi di dollari
La compagnia cinese Zhejiang Loon Airlines ha confermato un ordine per 20 Airbus A320 dal valore di listino di 1,9 miliardi di dollari. Il titolo Eads a Parigi cede lo 0,4%.

Banca MPS (-1,6%): Mansi, no sfiducia a Profumo/Viola, evitare nazionalizzazione
Banca MPS entra in contrattazione dopo un’apertura prolungata dalle difficoltà di fare prezzo per eccesso di ribasso. Antonella Mansi, presidente della Fondazione MPS, ha dichiarato al Corriere che si augura che il presidente Profumo e l’a.d. Viola restino al loro posto: la decisione di rinviare l’aumento di capitale di Rocca Salimbeni non è infatti, secondo Mansi, un atto di sfiducia nei confronti del management, ma solo un posticipo della tempistica dell’operazione su cui si basa il piano di rilancio elaborato da Profumo e Viola. Mansi ha aggiunto che l’obiettivo è evitare la nazionalizzazione di MPS, cosa che avverrebbe in caso di mancato rimborso dei 4 miliardi di euro di Monti bond.

Fiat (+1,5%): ottimismo su trattative Veba e rinnovo contratti lavoro
Fiat positiva in avvio di seduta grazie alle indiscrezioni riportate da Milano Finanza in base alle quali il Lingotto sarebbe vicino a un accordo con Veba per l’acquisizione del 41,5% di Chrysler ancora detenuto dal fondo. Altre fonti parlano di ottimismo riguardo alle trattative per il rinnovo del contratto degli 80mila dipendenti del gruppo in Italia (compresi quelli di CNH Industrial): i negoziati riprenderanno il 13-14 Gennaio.

Spagna: crescono a novembre le Vendite al Dettaglio +1,9% a/a
In Spagna a novembre le vendite al dettaglio sono cresciute dell’1,9% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012. Nel mese di ottobre le vendite al dettaglio erano risultate in calo dello 0,5% a/a. Il dato risulta nettamente superiore alle stime degli addetti ai lavori, che attendevano una diminuzione dello 0,3%.

Sanofi: FDA boccia il farmaco Lemtrada
La FDA (Food & Drug Administration) ha respinto la domanda presentata da Sanofi per la commercializzazione negli Stati Uniti del farmaco Lemtrada, trattamento contro la sclerosi. Lemtrada è prodotto da Genzyme, società acquistata da Sanofi nel 2011 per circa 20 miliardi di dollari.

Lloyds Banking Group: Londra potrebbe cedere la quota nei prossimi 12 mesi
Il governo britannico potrebbe cedere l’intera partecipazione (pari al 33% del capitale) detenuta in Lloyds Banking Group nei prossimi 12 mesi. Lo scrive il Daily Telegraph.

Quartz Daily Brief—Suicide bombing in Russia, inflation in Japan, “sad characters” in Asia

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Israel will release Palestinian prisoners. About two dozen prisoners will be released today ahead of New Year’s day peace talks among US secretary of state John Kerry, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

The UK’s New Year Honors list will be published. Cyclists and Olympians were among those picked a year go, but Queen Elizabeth II won’t be awarding knighthoods to soccer star David Beckham or Wimbledon champion Andy Murray this time, according to local reports.

A former F1 star’s prognosis. Michael Schumacher, the Formula One racer, is in a coma in a French hospital after a skiing accident.

US pending home sales are due. Sales of existing homes have underwhelmed in recent months, but economists expect a rebound. The numbers come amid rising interest rates, which may or may not affect the housing market in 2014.

Over the weekend

A female suicide bomber struck in Russia. At least 16 people were killed after an explosion at a train station in Volograd, a transport hub in southern Russia, set by a woman officials identified as the wife of a rebel leader from the Caucasus. It’s the second deadly attack in three months and a major blow for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is determined to project an image of stability in the run up to the Sochi Olympics.

Japan managed some inflation. In a boost for Abenomics, consumer prices rose 1.2% last month, the highest rate in five years. Japan’s central bank has set a target of 2% in its battle to avoid inflation.

France’s “millionaires” tax is going ahead. The country’s constitutional court has approved president Hollande’s contentious plan to levy a 75% tax rate on salaries above €1 million ($1.37 million).

Corruption and smoking crackdown in China. Hundreds of lawmakers in the Chinese city of Hengyang have been dismissed after accepting bribes in a huge case of electoral fraud. Meanwhile, the Communist Party forbade officials from smoking in public.

More than a million Americans lost unemployment benefits. Their safety net expired after Congress failed to intervene, though an extension is on the agenda for next year.

Quartz obsession interlude

Herman Wong looks at Asia’s words of the year, and finds they’re a bunch of sad characters: “Unlike Oxford Dictionaries’ choice for word of the year, these characters capture a sense of people’s anxiety and, in one case, of collective achievement.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Bitcoin is evil. Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman attempts to distinguish between the positive and the normative in the heated debate over the popular digital currency.

Hollywood is evil. The New Yorker takes a critical look at the unfortunate (and surprisingly similar) messages purveyed in Leonardo diCaprio’s latest two films, Gatsby and Wolf of Wall Street.

A glimpse at the world’s economic giants, 15 years from now.  What if conventional wisdom on the “endless rise of Asian and Latin American autocracies” is wrong?

Is e-cigarette advertising just like tobacco cigarette advertising? We’ve taken a look. You be the judge.

Surprising discoveries

Charlie Chaplin was a complex individual. Lapham’s Quarterly takes a look at the double life led by the silent film star.

Long distance travel has come a long way. In 1930, it took a full day to get from New York City to Philadelphia, a trip that takes about an hour these days.

If Christmas were forever. This would be a good reading list.

Ecstasy’s popularity knows no borders. A study of drugs bought on the illicit online marketplace Silk Road using bitcoin found that MDMA was most popular in the US, UK, and Australia.  

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, e-cig ads, and knighthood nominations to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

Sign up for the Quartz Daily Brief here, tailored for morning delivery in Asia, Europe & Africa, and the Americ

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Market Review for Week Ending December 29, 2013

Market Review for Week Ending December 29, 2013
Commentary

Tickers in this Article QQQ, DIA, SPY, IWM

Major U.S. indices moved higher this week, as higher new home sales, lower jobless claims and positive signs of consumer spending offset slower growth in personal incomes and lower than expected consumer sentiment. Large-cap stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average led U.S. equities higher, while small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 lagged the market. Looking forward, investors will be closely watching the Federal Reserve for signs of policy changes.

International markets moved higher this week due to strength in the U.S. and other developed markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.94%; Britain’s FTSE 100 jumped 2.18%; and Germany’s DAX 30 jumped 2.01% this week. In the eurozone, economic activity picked up in December although the ECB warned that growth remains fragile. In Asia, Japan’s economy continues to be the big story as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reforms continue to plow forward.

SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

The SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY) ETF jumped 1.20% this week as of midday trading Friday afternoon. After surpassing its R1 resistance at 182.73, the index moved towards its upper trend line that lies just below its R2 resistance at 185.30. Traders should watch for a breakout above this level to new highs or a move back down to the lower trend line and pivot point at 178.34. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears overbought at 69.01 but the MACD experienced a bullish crossover, sending mixed signals to traders moving forward.

SEE: Introduction To Stock Trader Types

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average(ARCA:DIA)
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average(ARCA:DIA) ETF jumped 1.38% this week as of midday trading Friday afternoon. After rebounding from its pivot point at 158.57, the index moved past its upper trend line and R1 resistance at 162.94 and trades below its R2 resistance at 165.56. Traders should watch for a breakout from these levels or a move back down to its pivot point to S1 support at 155.96. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears overbought at 73.03 but the MACD experienced a bullish crossover signaling potential increases ahead.
PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ)
chart
The PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) ETF jumped 1.24% this week as of midday trading Friday afternoon. After rebounding from its pivot point at 84.05, the index moved past its R1 resistance at 86.98 and towards its upper trend line and R2 resistance at 88.50. Traders should watch for a breakout from these levels to new highs or a move back down to its pivot point or S1 support at 82.52. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears overbought at 70.86 but the MACD experienced a bullish crossover, sending mixed signals to traders.
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM)
The iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) ETF jumped 0.89% this week as of midday trading Friday afternoon. After rebounding from its lower trend line and pivot point at 111.18, the index moved up to its R1 resistance and upper trend line at 115.62 before moving marginally lower. Traders should watch for a breakout from these levels to new highs or a move back down to its lower trend line and pivot point. Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears overbought at 65.87 but the MACD experienced a bullish crossover that sent mixed signals to traders.

The Bottom Line
The major U.S. indices moved largely higher this week either meeting or exceeding upper resistance levels. While all of the major indices appear overbought in terms of their RSI’s, the MACD indicators seem to suggest a durable uptrend emerging. Next week, traders will be watching a number of economic indicators including jobless claims and ISM manufacturing data that’s set to be released on January 2nd after the new year.

Justin Kuepper has many years of experience in the market as an active trader and a personal retirement accounts manager.

Will January Be Up or Down? – 12/29/2013

Will January Be Up or Down?

by Mitch Zacks, Senior Portfolio Manager

About this time every year, pundits and investors begin to talk about the phenomenon known as the January Effect. The theory says that investors will sell stocks in December for tax purposes or money managers will sell stocks at the end of the year as a kind of window dressing to show they are doing something. These same investors will then start buying stocks again in January, causing January to be positive for stocks. It also says if January is a positive month, the year will be a positive one for stocks. However, no month, week or day has any bearing on what will happen during the next day, week or month. There have been many times when January has been a down month for stocks but the year finished in positive territory. The January Effect is not a sound investment strategy.

The S&P 500 Index has risen during the first week in January the past three years, after having declined during the same period the previous two years. But it is important to remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is always true. If the market goes up 20 days in a row, those 20 days have no bearing on what will happen on the 21st day.

January has Been Positive Historically

January as a whole has historically been a positive month for stocks. The S&P 500 has climbed 61% of the time during the month of January. January 2009 returned a terrible -8.6%, making it the worst January on record. By the end of 2009, however, stocks were up a lot. If an investor had stayed on the sidelines in cash because January was down so big, they would have missed out on one of the largest rebounds in history.

There are many reasons why investors should probably ignore those who talk about the January Effect. The biggest one being that fundamental economic and market conditions ultimately make the market go one way or the other. The business cycle can override any seasonal patterns. Again, one must only look back to 2009. We were at the end of the recession and the stock market anticipated this. Despite being down so much in January, economic fundamentals and the rebound effect coming off the lows of the bear market were indicating the market was due for a huge rally, which is exactly what happened.

Today is not anything like 2009. We are in the midst of a historical bull run and the economy, which has grown slowly over the past couple of years, may be set for a breakout year in 2014. Leading economic indicators are rising. Manufacturing in the U.S. is growing at a healthy clip. Housing has roared back from the dead. GDP growth came in much better than expected last quarter and I believe we will see GDP growth in 2014 at 3% or more. Unemployment has been steadily coming down and could be at 6% by the time 2014 is over.

Seasonal Investing: A Roll of the Dice

All these things I just mentioned are of much more importance than what happens in one particular month or any month. Remember, the stock market and the economy don’t celebrate the new year and they do not follow any calendar. Fundamentals are what is important and economic fundamentals here and abroad are just fine.

Some investors do not believe that the time of the year has nothing to do with stock returns. They will tell you the market has predictable patterns depending on where we are on the calendar. A very common saying in investing is “Sell in May and go away.” Meaning, you sell your stocks and stay in cash during the summer months and get back in the market in the Fall. Again, some years this might work, other years it will not. Take this year for example. If you had sold in May and gone away, you would have missed out on a lot of gains seen during the summer months. You’d most likely be trailing the market.

Clearly “sell in May and go away” does not always work as evidenced by S&P 500 returns this past May. The index was up nicely in May. Granted this is just one year, but nevertheless, a rhyme is not an investment strategy and the data bears this out.

Always Think Long-Term

May through October are considered bad months in the stock market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has an average return of 0.20% in May. Not much to write home about. The return for June is -0.10%, which is essentially flat. But in July, the average return jumps up to 0.90%. Clearly July is not a month to miss out on, which you would if you sold in May. August is almost completely flat at -0.04%. Finally, in September, the worst month, the return is -0.60%. Following a sell in May strategy is simply a form of market timing. However, if you want equity-like performance, you have to stay in equities. Trying to time the market is just not possible in the short term.

Putting it All Together

There is a reason you have never heard Warren Buffett talk about the January Effect or “Sell in May and Go Away.” It is because seasonal investing does not work. One month has no bearing on what will happen the next month. The market does not care that it is May or any month for that matter. Some years these types of things might work, but some years they will not. The best way to invest is to look at fundamentals and decide where the economy and market are headed in the long run. It is almost always best to just stay invested no matter what time of year it is. Unless you feel we have reached the peak of the market or the high point in the economic cycle, do not pay attention to what ultimately amounts to market timing techniques. Market timing does not work, it never has and I would venture a guess that it never will.

About Mitch Zacks

Mitch is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Zacks Investment Management. He wrote a weekly column for the Chicago Sun-Times and has published two books on quantitative investment strategies. He has a B.A. in Economics from Yale University and an M.B.A. in Analytic Finance from the University of Chicago.

Mitch also is a Portfolio Manager for the Zacks Small Cap Core Fund ( ZSCCX ).