ECB can remain in a wait-and-see mode

Quotes from UniCredt Research:

-According to the Eurostat flash estimate, eurozone headline inflation eased to 0.4% yoy in July from the previous 0.5%, hitting a new cyclical low. The core rate remained at 0.8% yoy. Today’s CPI data have no material implications for next week’s ECB meeting. There is no doubt that  headline inflation remains well below the ECB’s comfort zone, and probably slightly weaker than the ECB had projected in June.

-However, with core inflation remaining relatively resilient at just below 1% and showing signs of stabilization, the ECB can remain in a wait-and-see mode while assessing the effectiveness of the policy measures announced in June. A potential further (moderate) easing in headline inflation next month is unlikely to change this picture.

ECB has more work to do to tackle the risk of deflation

Quotes from Capital Economics:

-July’s flash euro-zone consumer prices data underline the weakness of price pressures in the currency union and support our view that the ECB has more work to do to tackle the risk of deflation.

-The fall in the headline inflation rate from June’s +0.5% to +0.4% (published consensus +0.5%) had been flagged up by the German and Spanish data yesterday and left inflation at its lowest rate since October 2009, when it was negative.

Morning Market Commentary 31-Jul-2014

 

Morning News Headlines ▪ ▪ Merkel And Putin Discussed Secret Deal Could End Ukraine Crisis ▪ ▪ EU Names 8 Russians, Three Firms Subject To Asset Freeze ▪ ▪ Argentina Declared In Default By S&P As Talks Fail ▪ ▪ BoE’s Broadbent: ‘Edge Is Coming Off’ UK Housing ▪ ▪ UK House Prices Slow To 15-Month Low In July ▪ ▪ UK Consumer Confidence Falls For 1st Time In 6 Months – GFK ▪ ▪ French Producer Prices Rise Unexpectedly In June ▪ ▪ French Consumer Spending (YoY) Jun: 1.80% (est 0.40%; rev prev -0.70%) ▪ ▪ German Retail Sales: Stores Boost Turnover In June ▪ ▪ German June Labour Market Nearly Unchanged On May ▪ ▪ Moody’s: Outlook Changed To Negative For Swiss Banking System ▪ ▪ SNB H1 Profit Rises On Gold, Foreign Currency ▪ ▪ IMF: China Should Set Less Ambitious 2015 Growth Target ▪ ▪ Shell Quarterly Adjusted Earnings Rise 33% ▪ ▪ Siemens Outruns Q2 Bets As Restructuring Finally Bears Fruit ▪ ▪ Lloyds Bank Shrugs Off Libor Fines With Profit Increase ▪ ▪ Banco Santander Profit Rises On UK, Spain Recovery ▪ ▪ BG Group Operating Profit Up 11% On Higher LNG Volumes ▪ ▪ Samsung Electronics Downbeat On Q3 Prospects As Profits Slide ▪ ▪ HTC Forecasts Q3 Revenue Missing Analysts’Estimates ▪ ▪ AstraZeneca Smashes Forecasts In Q2 After Seeing Off Pfizer ▪ ▪ Centrica First-Half Profits Fall 35% ▪ ▪ BAE First Half Profit Falls 7% ▪ ▪ Sanofi Lifts 2014 Guidance After Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations ▪ ▪ Carrefour Profit Tops Estimates As European Sales Strengthen ▪ ▪ Euronext: BES Shares Have Been Suspended Until 10:00 BST ▪ ▪ BES Seeks Capital As Key Staff Suspended After Massive Losses ▪ ▪ Balfour Beatty Ends Merger Talks With Carillion ▪ ▪ Lufthansa Profit Below Expectations As Ticket Prices Fall Leaders and Laggers Commentary Land For Gas: Merkel And Putin Discussed Secret Deal Could End Ukraine Crisis Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine. The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies. More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach. (Independent – Continue Reading) Argentina Braces For Market Reaction To Second Default In 12 Years Argentina defaulted for the second time in 12 years after hopes for a midnight deal with holdout creditors were dashed, setting up stock and bond prices for declines on Thursday and raising chances a recession could worsen this year. After a long legal battle with hedge funds that rejected Argentina’s debt restructuring following its 2002 default, Latin America’s third-biggest economy failed to strike a deal in time to meet a midnight deadline for a coupon payment on exchange bonds. Even a short default will raise companies’ borrowing costs, pile more pressure on the peso, drain dwindling foreign reserves and fuel one of the world’s highest inflation rates. (Reuters – Continue Reading) Growth Rebound Stokes Fed Debate Federal Reserve officials delivered a modestly more upbeat assessment of the economy Wednesday amid a second-quarter growth rebound and deepening debate inside the central bank about when to start raising interest rates. U.S. gross domestic product, a broad measure of the nation’s output of goods and services, advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, a significant rebound from a wintry 2.1% contraction during the first three months of the year. Overall, the economy appears to be neither as weak as was recorded in the first quarter nor as strong as the latest numbers suggest in the second. Compared with a year ago, economic output was up 2.4% last quarter, in line with the modest pace of growth that has characterized much of this recovery. The economy only grew at about a 1% pace for the first half of 2014. (WSJ – Continue Reading) Gross Says Time To Say ‘Good Evening’ To Asset Gains Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said investors should say “good evening” to the prospect of future capital gains in asset markets as interest rates are set to rise while the economy grows at a slow pace. “The global economy is left to depend on economic growth for further advances and it is growth that is now and has recently been historically deficient,” the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote in a commentary on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s website. “As yields have bottomed and are now expected by the markets to gradually rise, it’s down to growth, and growth is a question mark.” Investors should “own bonds and an average proportion of stocks too,” Gross wrote, adding that high quality Treasury and corporate bonds are fairly priced, although they are not cheap. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading) Global QE Ends As China Opens Second Front In Bond Tapering The spigot of global reserve stimulus is slowing to a trickle. The world’s central banks have cut their purchases of foreign bonds by two-thirds since late last year. China has cut by three-quarters. These purchases have been a powerful form of global quantitative easing over the past 15 years, driven by the commodity bloc and the rising powers of Asia. They have fed demand for US Treasuries, Bunds and Gilts, as well as French, Dutch, Japanese, Canadian and Australian bonds and parastatal debt, displacing the better part of $12 trillion into everything else in a universal search for yield. Any reversal would threaten to squeeze money back out again. (Telegraph – Continue Reading) Gold ETPs Halt Outflows As Buyers Return Amid Price Slump Gold investors who pulled money out of U.S. exchange-traded products through the first half of 2014 rushed back in July, just as prices resumed a decline that Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say will get worse. ETPs backed by precious metals took in $536.81 million this month as of July 29, a 1 percent gain for funds that saw a net outflow of $319 million in six months through June, data compiled by Bloomberg show. This month’s 2 percent drop in futures left prices down 7 percent from a 2014 peak in March. The appeal of gold as a haven increased since Russia backed a rebellion in Ukraine and as violence escalated in the Middle East and North Africa. While the metal has outperformed equities and bonds so far this year — gains that Citigroup Inc. says will hold — analysts in a Bloomberg survey predict prices will drop in the fourth quarter as economic growth spurs a shift to U.S. equities already at all-time highs. (Businessweek – Continue Reading) Files and Links HEADLINES ▪ ▪ EU Names 8 Russians, Three Firms Subject To Asset Freeze ▪ ▪ Argentina Declared In Default By S&P As Talks Fail ▪ ▪ BoE’s Broadbent: ‘Edge Is Coming Off’ UK Housing ▪ ▪ Italy Spending Review Chief Cottarelli Plans To Quit: CorrieredellaSera ▪ ▪ UK Nationwide House PX (MoM) Jul: 0.10% (est 0.50%; prev 1.00%) ▪ ▪ UK GFK Consumer Confidence (Jul): -2 (est 2; prev 1) ▪ ▪ French PPI (YoY) Jun: 0.50% (est -0.10%; rev prev 0.10%) ▪ ▪ French Consumer Spending (YoY) Jun: 1.80% (est 0.40%; rev prev -0.70%) ▪ ▪ German Retail Sales (YoY) Jun: 0.40% (Est 1.30%; Prev 1.90%) ▪ ▪ German June Labour Market Nearly Unchanged On May ▪ ▪ Moody’s: Outlook Changed To Negative For Swiss Banking System ▪ ▪ SNB H1 Profit Rises On Gold, Foreign Currency ▪ ▪ IMF: China Should Set Less Ambitious 2015 Growth Target, Refrain From Stimulus ▪ ▪ Shell Quarterly Adjusted Earnings Rise 33% ▪ ▪ Siemens Outruns Q2 Bets As Restructuring Finally Bears Fruit ▪ ▪ Lloyds Bank Shrugs Off Libor Fines With Profit Increase ▪ ▪ Banco Santander Profit Rises On UK, Spain Recovery ▪ ▪ BG Group Operating Profit Up 11% On Higher LNG Volumes ▪ ▪ Samsung Electronics Downbeat On Q3 Prospects As Profits Slide ▪ ▪ HTC Forecasts Q3 Revenue Missing Analysts’ Estimates ▪ ▪ AstraZeneca Smashes Forecasts In Q2 After Seeing Off Pfizer ▪ ▪ Centrica First-Half Profits Fall 35% ▪ ▪ BAE First Half Profit Falls 7% ▪ ▪ Sanofi Lifts 2014 Guidance After Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations ▪ ▪ Carrefour Profit Tops Estimates As European Sales Strengthen ▪ ▪ BES Seeks Capital As Key Staff Suspended After Massive Losses ▪ ▪ Balfour Beatty Ends Merger Talks With Carillion ▪ ▪ Lufthansa Profit Below Expectations As Ticket Prices Fall ▪ ▪ Boeing To Make Longest 787-10 Dreamliner Exclusively In South Carolina MARKET DATA ▪ ▪ Dollar Shines, US Yields Surge On Upbeat US Data ▪ ▪ GBP/USD Slid To 1.6910 Area On Disappointing Nationwide Data ▪ ▪ EUR/USD Is Now On The Other Side Of 1.34 ▪ ▪ Europe Starts Mostly Higher On Earnings, Jobless Data Awaited ▪ ▪ Asian Equities Mixed, Samsung Down On Earnings ▪ ▪ China PBOC Cuts 14-Day Repo Rate During Thurs Mkt Ops ▪ ▪ Gold Heads For Longest Drop In 2 Months As US Economy Improves ▪ ▪ Copper Futures Fall 0.62% On Global Cues; Low Demand ▪ ▪ WTI Remains Subdued Amid Bearish Mood Over US Oil Supplies

 

USD-JPY now seems ready to make the long-awaited upside leap

Quotes from UniCredit Research:

–JPY: having traded in a very narrow range since early February, USD-JPY now seems to us ready to make the long-awaited upside leap; on one hand, the US economy is increasingly proving to be stronger than anticipated which should put upside pressure on US rates and hence on USD-JPY; on the other hand, it appears to us that the market has moved from being excessively optimistic about additional BoJ monetary accommodation to being excessively pessimistic.

-Japanese data have surprised significantly on the downside as of late while inflation expectations are falling. We still feel quite comfortable with our forecast of 106 by the end of the year; if anything, we now see risks tilted to the upside for the medium term.

Broad-based interest rate cut is probably a better policy for China’s deleveraging

Quotes from Barclays Capital:

-Looking ahead, we continue to expect the PBoC to expand the PSL to more commercial banks and other moves to guide down medium-term interest rates.  Financing costs remain elevated through both the official lending and shadow bank lending channels. This is constraining demand and adds to the economy’s debt burden and financial risks.

-We hence maintain our forecast of two interest rate cuts in H2, though we are more likely to see targeted interest rate cuts as described above. More fundamentally, we think a broad-based interest rate cut is probably a better policy for China’s deleveraging, weighing cost and benefits.

-Given capital outflows, we think the probability of a system-wide RRR cut is increasing, even though the current account surplus will still be sizable and the PBoC can expand the QFII and RQFII quotas to attract inflows.

Fed is still hesitant to implement a more restrictive monetary policy

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

–EUR: The Fed is still hesitant to implement a more restrictive monetary policy. Today’s CPI data in the euro zone on the other hand will force the ECB to consider the possibility of an even more expansionary monetary policy. Together with a lower inflation rate in Spain, yesterday’s German data supports our expectation that consumer prices might have risen by only 0.4% yoy in July in the entire euro zone, following 0.5% in June.

-As consensus expects a rise of 0.5% and the ECB repeatedly voiced concerns about the excessively low inflation this would further fuel speculation about additional ECB measures (and above all QE). However, any speculation about ECB bond purchases is detrimental for the euro, as it would make the different course taken by Fed and ECB even more obvious. We would therefore not yet rely on a temporary consolidation in EUR-USD.

People’s Bank of China will need to implement more easing policies in H2 2014

Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-China will release official manufacturing PMI data for July on Friday, 1 August. We expect the headline composite index figure to have improved further to 51.2 from 51.0 in June, supporting the official story of a mild growth recovery.

-Other signals from China’s housing market (sales are flat), monetary policy (real rates are still high and banks are cautious about lending to commercial borrowers), and exports (the beginnings of a recovery are only just showing through) suggest a long, tough slog until the end of the year.

-The job situation looks stable thanks to the services sector, which is barely creating jobs, while manufacturing now appears to be losing jobs. In light of our doubts about the recovery, we believe the People’s Bank of China will need to implement more easing policies in H2.

Websim Focus sui Mercati finanziari 31/07/2014 – WS

Chiusura poco mossa a Wall Street dopo l’annuncio della Fed: Dow Jones -0,2%, S&P500 invariato, Nasdaq +0,46%.

Nella sostanza la Fed ha tirato dritto, come previsto, nel suo piano di riduzione degli stimoli, un sostegno di politica monetaria che appare sempre meno giustificato dopo il balzo del Pil del 4% nel secondo trimestre: il taglio da 10 miliardi di dollari porta l’ammontare dei bond acquistati mensilmente a 25 miliardi.

Con qualche sorpresa, almeno da parte nostra, la Yellen ha avvertito che il

quadro macro resta fragile e che il mercato del lavoro sta migliorando molto lentamente, un’ammonizione che abbassa la visibilità sulla tempistica dell’arrivo del primo rialzo del costo del denaro dal 2006 e fa arretrare il dollaro.

Argentina. E’ scattato il default dopo che è fallita la trattativa tra il governo e un gruppo di hedge funds americani che avevano rifiutato la decurtazione delle loro spettanze. A nostro avviso si tratta più che altro di un default tecnico che non dovrebbe avere ripercussioni sui mercati.

Asia. Stamattina i listini principali si prendono una pausa dopo il recente rally. Tokio (+0,25%) è al quinto rialzo. Hong Kong (-0,2%) frena dopo 7 rialzi. Shanghai, Seul e Mumbay sono pressochè piatte.

Le Borse europee dovrebbero aprire poco mosse: i future salgono dello 0,1%.

La seduta potrebbe essere condizionato dall’annuncio di perdite record da parte di Banco Espirito Santo. Il principale istituto lusitano ha chiuso il primo semestre con un buco di 3,577 miliardi di euro che aumenta la necessità di un corposo aumento di capitale.

Attese le trimestrali di: A2A, Anima, Mondadori, Autogrill, Brembo (9,00), Cnh Industrial, Finmeccanica, Geox, Gtech, Prysmian.

Analisi tecnica borse. La corsa delle ultime sedute richiede una pausa di riflessione e l’ultima seduta di luglio potrebbe essere l’occasione giusta. Il quadro di fondo resta comunque ben impostato. Da segnalare il quarto ribasso consecutivo della borsa brasiliana (indice Bovespa 56.877) che “sente” come previsto le resistenze in area 57mila.

FtseMib (20.887, -0,94%). Prosegue la fase di nervosa oscillazione intorno alla soglia psicologica dei 21mila punti. Ciò rende molto difficile il trading di breve anche perché i volumi scambiati sono in progressiva riduzione per l’avvicinarsi delle ferie estive. I paletti restano verso i supporti (e soglia di acquisto) a 20.500/20mila punti e verso il primo ostacolo in area 21.300 punti. Vere resistenze si incontrano però solo verso 22.600 punti. Cambi di scenario in peggio con una caduta sotto 19mila punti.

Variabili macro

Forex. La furbizia della Yellen, che dice e non dice, ha l’effetto di far arretrare leggermente il dollaro. Ma non crediamo di tratti di un cambio di tendenza bensì di un’occasione da sfruttare per costruire posizioni in dollari. Cross Euro/Usd (1,3396), ieri nuovi minimi da novembre 2013 a 1,3367: confermiamo le attese di un approdo verso 1,33. Euro in recupero sugli altri cross: Euro/Yen (137,7) poco sopra i minimi da febbraio. Euro/Sterlina (0,791), poco sopra i minimi da settembre 2012, forte supporto in area 0,775. Euro/Real brasiliano (3,01) poco sopra i minimi da novembre 2013, ma sfuma per ora il tentativo di allungare verso area 2,90.

Bond.

Bond periferici. Prevedibile qualche presa di profitto dopo il prolungato rally. Ottimo risultato delle nostre aste di Btp. Il rendimento del BTP decennale apre a 2,69% dopo aver toccato un nuovo minimo storico al 2,63%, lo spread è fermo a 151, a poca distanza dai minimi dell’anno (138), toccati ad inizio giugno. Puntiamo sempre a uno spread di 100 punti base e a un rendimento finale tra il 2,3/2,2%. Un eventuale ritorno verso il 3% sarebbe occasione di acquisto.

ARN Daily Basic: Daily Analysts’ Updates for 7/30/2014

Analysts’ Upgrades

• AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley to an “equal weight” rating. They now have a $70.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $72.00. 10.9% upside from the previous close of $63.14. Tweet This.
• AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. from a “sell” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $4.35. Tweet This.
• Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) was upgraded by analysts at Zacks from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $86.00 price target on the stock. 19.3% upside from the previous close of $72.06. Tweet This.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) was upgraded by analysts at Tigress Financial from an “underperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $104.69. Tweet This.
• C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW) was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America from an “underperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $68.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $52.00. 5.6% upside from the previous close of $64.41. Tweet This.
• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) was upgraded by analysts at Berenberg Bank from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $35.69. Tweet This.
• Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX) was upgraded by analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $12.00 price target on the stock. 30.4% upside from the previous close of $9.20. Tweet This.
• Devro plc (LON:DVO) was upgraded by analysts at N+1 Singer to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 211 ($3.58) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
• Fidelity National Financial Inc (NASDAQ:FNFV) was upgraded by analysts at Stephens from an “equal weight” rating to an “overweight” rating. Previous closing price of $16.21. Tweet This.
• Financial Engines Inc. (NASDAQ:FNGN) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $38.98. Tweet This.
• Freescale Semiconductor Ltd (NYSE:FSL) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “underweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating. Previous closing price of $20.20. Tweet This.
• Hospira, Inc. (NYSE:HSP) was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $51.90. Tweet This.
• Independent Bank Group Inc (NASDAQ:IBTX) was upgraded by analysts at Macquarie from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $56.00 price target on the stock. 17.7% upside from the previous close of $47.56. Tweet This.
• InterNAP Network Services Corp. (NASDAQ:INAP) was upgraded by analysts at Cowen and Company from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $12.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $7.50. 84.3% upside from the previous close of $6.51. Tweet This.
• InvenSense Inc (NASDAQ:INVN) was upgraded by analysts at Ascendiant Capital Markets from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $29.00 price target on the stock. 22.3% upside from the previous close of $23.71. Tweet This.
• InvenSense Inc (NASDAQ:INVN) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley to a “buy” rating. They now have a $29.00 price target on the stock. 22.3% upside from the previous close of $23.71. Tweet This.
• Michelin Cie Gen Des (NASDAQ:MGDDF) was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from an “underweight” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $115.11. Tweet This.
• Genworth MI Canada Inc (TSE:MIC) was upgraded by analysts at BMO Capital Markets from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a C$46.00 price target on the stock, up previously from C$41.00. 22.0% upside from the previous close of $37.71. Tweet This.
• Oshkosh Co. (NYSE:OSK) was upgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $55.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $58.00. 20.0% upside from the previous close of $45.84. Tweet This.
• Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) was upgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $87.54. Tweet This.
• Romarco Minerals Inc (TSE:R) was upgraded by analysts at RBC Capital from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a C$1.25 price target on the stock, up previously from C$1.00. 45.3% upside from the previous close of $0.86. Tweet This.
• Altisource Residential Corp (NASDAQ:RESI) was upgraded by analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $32.00 price target on the stock. 26.4% upside from the previous close of $25.31. Tweet This.
• Rightmove Plc (LON:RMV) was upgraded by analysts at Westhouse Securities to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 2,585 ($43.90) price target on the stock, down previously from GBX 2,700 ($45.85). Tweet This.
• Roadrunner Transportation Systems Inc (NASDAQ:RRTS) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $31.00 price target on the stock. 16.2% upside from the previous close of $26.68. Tweet This.
• STANDARD CHARTERED.5 (NASDAQ:SCBFF) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $21.35. Tweet This.
• SEI Investments Co. (NASDAQ:SEIC) was upgraded by analysts at Oppenheimer from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $42.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 18.6% upside from the previous close of $35.40. Tweet This.
• Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN) was upgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating. They now have a GBX 1,400 ($23.77) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
• S & T Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ:STBA) was upgraded by analysts at Guggenheim from a “sell” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $28.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $27.00. 18.4% upside from the previous close of $23.64. Tweet This.
• Tullett Prebon Plc (LON:TLPR) was upgraded by analysts at Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research to a “buy” rating. They now have a GBX 284 ($4.82) price target on the stock, down previously from GBX 309 ($5.25). Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was upgraded by analysts at CRT Capital from a “fair value” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $48.00 price target on the stock. 24.4% upside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was upgraded by analysts at FBN Securities from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $60.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $50.00. 55.5% upside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $60.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $40.00. 55.5% upside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was upgraded by analysts at Cowen and Company from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $26.00. 16.6% upside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “neutral” rating to an “overweight” rating. They now have a $60.50 price target on the stock, up previously from $43.50. 32.0% upside from the previous close of $45.84. Tweet This.
• Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) was upgraded by analysts at Nomura from a “reduce” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $13.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $7.50. 9.9% upside from the previous close of $11.83. Tweet This.
• Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) was upgraded by analysts at DA Davidson from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating. They now have a $14.50 price target on the stock, up previously from $9.00. 22.6% upside from the previous close of $11.83. Tweet This.
• YRC Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:YRCW) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James from an “underperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $26.45. Tweet This.
• Get today’s most recent analysts’ upgrades at AnalystRatings.net

Analysts’ Downgrades

• AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) was downgraded by analysts at Scotiabank from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. Previous closing price of $63.14. Tweet This.
• A H Belo Corp (NYSE:AHC) was downgraded by analysts at Gabelli from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $11.00. Tweet This.
• Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) was downgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from an “overweight” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $53.50 price target on the stock, down previously from $56.50. 15.9% upside from the previous close of $46.18. Tweet This.
• Astronics Co. (NASDAQ:ATRO) was downgraded by analysts at KeyCorp from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $51.45. Tweet This.
• Brandywine Realty Trust (NYSE:BDN) was downgraded by analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $15.92. Tweet This.
• Betfair Group Ltd (LON:BET) was downgraded by analysts at Nomura to a “reduce” rating. They now have a GBX 923 ($15.67) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
• Big 5 Sporting Goods Co. (NASDAQ:BGFV) was downgraded by analysts at Feltl & Co. from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $10.50 price target on the stock, down previously from $19.00. 7.3% downside from the previous close of $11.33. Tweet This.
• Americas Petrogas Inc. (CVE:BOE) was downgraded by analysts at RBC Capital from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. They now have a C$2.60 price target on the stock, down previously from C$4.00. 381.5% upside from the previous close of $0.54. Tweet This.
• Carbonite Inc (NASDAQ:CARB) was downgraded by analysts at Bank of America from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $9.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $12.00. 6.9% downside from the previous close of $9.67. Tweet This.
• CBS Outdoor Americas Inc (NASDAQ:CBSO) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating. Previous closing price of $34.38. Tweet This.
• Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF) was downgraded by analysts at Clarkson Capital from a “market perform” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $13.00 price target on the stock. 26.2% downside from the previous close of $17.62. Tweet This.
• Cablevision Systems Co. (NYSE:CVC) was downgraded by analysts at Citigroup Inc. from a “neutral” rating to a “sell” rating. They now have a $600.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $123.00. 2970.6% upside from the previous close of $19.54. Tweet This.
• DNB Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:DNBF) was downgraded by analysts at FIG Partners from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. They now have a $23.50 price target on the stock. 11.7% upside from the previous close of $21.03. Tweet This.
• Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) was downgraded by analysts at SunTrust from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $89.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $101.00. 9.2% upside from the previous close of $81.52. Tweet This.
• Enbridge Inc (NYSE:ENB) was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “conviction-buy” rating to a “buy” rating. Previous closing price of $50.70. Tweet This.
• Eaton Co., PLC (NYSE:ETN) was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $70.51. Tweet This.
• Eaton Co., PLC (NYSE:ETN) was downgraded by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from an “overweight” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $75.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $85.00. 6.4% upside from the previous close of $70.51. Tweet This.
• Eaton Co., PLC (NYSE:ETN) was downgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $70.51. Tweet This.
• Frontier Communications Corp (NYSE:FTR) was downgraded by analysts at Nomura from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $7.50 price target on the stock, up previously from $6.00. 10.5% upside from the previous close of $6.79. Tweet This.
• Genworth Financial Inc (NYSE:GNW) was downgraded by analysts at Macquarie from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $17.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $20.00. 4.6% upside from the previous close of $16.26. Tweet This.
• Hiscox Ltd (LON:HSX) was downgraded by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 710 ($12.06) price target on the stock, down previously from GBX 785 ($13.33). Tweet This.
• International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Agricole from an “outperform” rating to an “underperform” rating. Previous closing price of $48.86. Tweet This.
• Impax Laboratories Inc (NASDAQ:IPXL) was downgraded by analysts at Wunderlich from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $23.76. Tweet This.
• Impax Laboratories Inc (NASDAQ:IPXL) was downgraded by analysts at WallachBeth Capital from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $23.76. Tweet This.
• Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group plc (LON:JLT) was downgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity to a “hold” rating. They now have a GBX 1,070 ($18.17) price target on the stock, down previously from GBX 1,165 ($19.78). Tweet This.
• Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:KORS) was downgraded by analysts at Robert W. Baird from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $98.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $114.00. 17.1% upside from the previous close of $83.67. Tweet This.
• Lamar Advertising Co (NASDAQ:LAMR) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating. Previous closing price of $51.70. Tweet This.
• Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NYSE:LVLT) was downgraded by analysts at DA Davidson from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $50.00 price target on the stock. 8.3% upside from the previous close of $46.18. Tweet This.
• Merit Medical Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:MMSI) was downgraded by analysts at Raymond James from a “strong-buy” rating to an “outperform” rating. They now have a $16.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $19.00. 8.5% upside from the previous close of $14.74. Tweet This.
• Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (NASDAQ:MXIM) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating. Previous closing price of $29.77. Tweet This.
• Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:NGS) was downgraded by analysts at Global Hunter Securities from a “buy” rating to an “accumulate” rating. They now have a $34.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $32.00. 6.5% upside from the previous close of $31.93. Tweet This.
• National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) was downgraded by analysts at Jefferies Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $91.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $85.62. 9.1% upside from the previous close of $83.41. Tweet This.
• National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) was downgraded by analysts at Iberia Capital from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. They now have a $88.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $79.31. 5.5% upside from the previous close of $83.41. Tweet This.
• Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSUN) was downgraded by analysts at B. Riley from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $2.10 price target on the stock, down previously from $4.25. 4.5% upside from the previous close of $2.01. Tweet This.
• PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) (NYSE:PTR) was downgraded by analysts at Societe Generale from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. Previous closing price of $132.93. Tweet This.
• Sanderson Farms Inc. (NASDAQ:SAFM) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Agricole from an “outperform” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $106.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $98.00. 5.5% upside from the previous close of $100.52. Tweet This.
• Seadrill Ltd (NASDAQ:SDRL) was downgraded by analysts at Global Hunter Securities from a “buy” rating to an “accumulate” rating. They now have a $37.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $41.00. 1.4% upside from the previous close of $36.49. Tweet This.
• Syngenta AG (ADR) (NYSE:SYT) was downgraded by analysts at Zacks from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating. They now have a $64.00 price target on the stock. 9.7% downside from the previous close of $70.90. Tweet This.
• Timmins Gold Corp (NYSE:TGD) was downgraded by analysts at Jennings Capital from a “buy” rating to a “sell” rating. Previous closing price of $1.86. Tweet This.
• Talisman Energy Inc. (NYSE:TLM) was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. Previous closing price of $10.98. Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was downgraded by analysts at Evercore Partners to a “sell” rating. They now have a $55.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $48.00. 42.5% upside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) was downgraded by analysts at Pivotal Research from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating. They now have a $38.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $37.00. 1.5% downside from the previous close of $38.59. Tweet This.
• Domtar Corp (NYSE:UFS) was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $38.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $56.00. 0.2% upside from the previous close of $37.92. Tweet This.
• Vantage Drilling Co. (NYSE:VTG) was downgraded by analysts at Global Hunter Securities from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $2.10 price target on the stock, down previously from $2.55. 11.7% upside from the previous close of $1.88. Tweet This.
• Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) was downgraded by analysts at Macquarie from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating. They now have a $53.00 price target on the stock. They noted that the move was a valuation call. 2.0% upside from the previous close of $51.97. Tweet This.
• Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc. (NYSE:WDR) was downgraded by analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. They now have a $63.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $74.00. 13.7% upside from the previous close of $55.41. Tweet This.
• Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) was downgraded by analysts at Raymond James from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating. Previous closing price of $11.83. Tweet This.
• Zurich Insurance Group Ltd (NASDAQ:ZURVY) was downgraded by analysts at RBC Capital from an “outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating. Previous closing price of $29.84. Tweet This.
• Get today’s most recent analysts’ downgrades at Analyst Ratings.net

Analysts’ New Coverage

• Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BCLI) is now covered by analysts at Maxim Group. They set a “buy” rating and a $3.00 price target on the stock. 934.5% upside from the previous close of $0.29. Tweet This.
• Cray Inc. (NASDAQ:CRAY) is now covered by analysts at Needham & Company LLC. They set a “buy” rating and a $37.00 price target on the stock. 27.5% upside from the previous close of $29.02. Tweet This.
• Concordia Healthcare Corp (TSE:CXR) is now covered by analysts at Canaccord Genuity. They set a “hold” rating and a C$38.00 price target on the stock. 5.6% upside from the previous close of $36.00. Tweet This.
• Dream Global REIT (TSE:DRG.UN) is now covered by analysts at CIBC. They set a “sector perform” rating on the stock. Tweet This.
• Encana Co. (NYSE:ECA) is now covered by analysts at FirstEnergy Capital. They set a “top pick” rating and a $29.00 price target on the stock. 31.5% upside from the previous close of $22.05. Tweet This.
• Aerohive Networks Inc (NASDAQ:HIVE) is now covered by analysts at Pacific Crest. They set an “outperform” rating and a $12.00 price target on the stock. 49.8% upside from the previous close of $8.01. Tweet This.
• Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (TSE:KGI) is now covered by analysts at M Partners. They set a “buy” rating and a C$5.70 price target on the stock. 54.1% upside from the previous close of $3.70. Tweet This.
• Marathon Patent Group Inc (NASDAQ:MARA) is now covered by analysts at HC Wainwright. They set a “buy” rating and a $17.00 price target on the stock. 45.9% upside from the previous close of $11.65. Tweet This.
• Nextera Energy Partners LP (NYSE:NEP) is now covered by analysts at Wells Fargo & Co.. They set a “market perform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $34.98. Tweet This.
• NetGear, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTGR) is now covered by analysts at Pacific Crest. They set a “sector perform” rating on the stock. Previous closing price of $31.80. Tweet This.
• Peertv Plc (LON:PTV) is now covered by analysts at Daniel Stewart & Co. They set a “buy” rating and a GBX 2.60 ($0.04) price target on the stock. Tweet This.
• Ruckus Wireless Inc (NASDAQ:RKUS) is now covered by analysts at Pacific Crest. They set an “outperform” rating and a $15.00 price target on the stock. 19.2% upside from the previous close of $12.58. Tweet This.
• Renaissance Minerals Limited (ASX:RNS) is now covered by analysts at Hartley’s Research. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Tweet This.
• Scentre Group Ltd (ASX:SCG) is now covered by analysts at Deutsche Bank. They set a “buy” rating and a $3.65 price target on the stock. Tweet This.
• Get today’s most recent analysts’ new coverage at Analyst Ratings.net

Quartz Daily Brief—Argentina’s default, Snapchat’s funding, Samsung’s bad year, DC baby boom

Good morning, Quartz readers! What to watch for today John Kerry finds a friendlier crowd in India. The US secretary of state is on a three-day trip that he hopes will go better than his disastrous visit to the Middle East. The fifth annual India-US Strategic Dialogue will be a chance to build relations with prime minister Narendra Modi’s new government. The Czech Republic holds at “technical zero.” The Czech central bank, struggling to push inflation back up towards its 2% target, will likely hold its benchmark interest rate at 0.05% and continue weakening the koruna against the euro (paywall). A turnaround in the euro zone? Eurostat releases its preliminary consumer price index. Analysts will be looking for signs that the core inflation rate strengthened in July due to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s expansive monetary policy measures. Tesla’s halfway report. The electric car maker targeted 35,000 deliveries this year, and its second-quarter earnings offer a glimpse into its progress. Investors will be hoping for news on the company’s anticipated $5 billion “gigafactory” plant for making batteries, which could be as big a business for it as cars. News from the oilfields. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell all report earnings, which could be interesting after the last few months’ turmoil in oil-producing regions. Can Brazil pay off its debt? Latin America’s largest economy releases figures for the primary budget balance of the country (paywall), including state and municipal governments, which will give investors a peek into whether the country is able to service its debt, which Standard & Poor’s downgraded earlier this year. Correction: In yesterday’s brief we referred to Argentina as Latin America’s largest economy; it’s the third or fourth largest, depending on whether you ask the Argentinians or the Colombians. While you were sleeping Samsung had its worst quarter in two years. Q2 operating profit fell 24.6%, in line with the company’s guidance, but it also warned that the second half of the year “will remain a challenge” as its smartphones are squeezed by intense global  competition. Samsung’s top-of-the-line Galaxy S5 phone was outsold by the iPhone, and cheaper Chinese phones are gaining market share at the cheaper end of the market. Argentina defaulted on its debt. The deadline passed for a $539 million payment on bonds due in 2033 and Standard & Poor’s declared the country to be in default. A court-appointed mediator said Argentina’s government has reached no deal with its holdout creditors, but there are reports of a side deal between the holdouts and banks that could mitigate some of the economic pain. China was told to grow slower. A report from the International Monetary Fund recommended GDP growth of just 6.5-7% in 2015. China’s target for this year is 7.5%, but achieving this relies too much on unsustainable government investment, the report said. UK consumer confidence took a surprise fall. The GfK NOP survey showed the first fall in six months in July, after a nearly-10-year high in June. A general election is due in May 2015, and the cost of living is becoming a hot topic. Snapchat is raising serious cash. The photo messaging app is in talks for a new funding round that would value it at $10 billion, and Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is a potential investor. If the funding comes together, Snapchat looks smart for spurning a $3 billion acquisition offer from Facebook not long ago. The Fed held steady. The Federal Reserve cut its bond-buying stimulus by $10 billion a month, as planned, and left short-term interest rates unchanged. Quartz obsession interlude Roya Wolverson on why business travelers should think twice about booking with Airbnb. “Airbnb bookings aren’t always the bargain they appear to be. That’s partly because business travelers are more likely to need an entire apartment for work privacy, not just someone’s spare room. A US city-by-city study by the web data company Priceonomics found that while renting a private room on Airbnb is about half as expensive on average than staying in a hotel, renting an entire apartment is less of a bargain, with a cost savings of just over 20%.” Read more here. Matters of debate Singapore’s surveillance state is a big data lab. But can it create a harmonious society? Europe’s museums are too popular. Overwhelming crowds are forcing institutions to choose between accessibility and art preservation (paywall). The end of the big-box store era will soon be upon us. Customers are edging away from Target and Walmart and turning to the web or smaller boutiques. Nintendo’s empire is doomed. Smartphones and tablets threaten the console business. Surprising discoveries A copper shrub cools a computer without fans. The metal foam heat sink is certainly an attention-grabber. There are geysers on one of Saturn’s moons. The jets spotted on Enceladus suggest there are deep oceans of water that could potentially harbor life. Washington, DC is having a baby boomlet. The government shutdown nine months ago gave federal employees a lot of spare time. A blood test could predict your risk of suicide. It picks up a genetic mutation in how the brain deal with stress. Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Saturnian geyser photos, and puppy modeling shots to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day. You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.