Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Thursday, September 12, 2013
Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is declining 6 points to 15324. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.011 points to 81.537. Gold has slipped 22.28 dollars to 1341.45. Silver has eased 0.5013 dollars to 22.6147. The Dow Industrials trended higher 135.54 points, at 15326.60, while the S&P 500 rose 5.14 points, last seen at 1689.13. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 6.23 points to 3722.79. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 215.1K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 459.2K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 747.4K)
8:30 AM ET. Aug Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 330K; previous 323K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -9K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2951000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -43K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.2%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 3188B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +58B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
U.S. Corn, Ending Stocks, Bushels (previous 1.84B)
U.S. Soybeans, Ending Stocks, (previous 220M Bushels)
U.S. Wheat, Ending Stocks, Bushels (previous 0.55B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Primary Dealer Borrowings
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Discount Window Borrowings
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Foreign US Debt Holdings
US Foreign Agency Holdings
Foreign Treasury Holdings
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CURRENCIES
December Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.93 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 81.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.3. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 82.87. First support is the reaction low crossing at 81.39. Second support is August’s low crossing at 81.03.
The December Euro closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.99 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 134.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 134.15. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 134.58. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 131.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 130.27.
The December British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1.5901 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5602 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 1.5818. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1.5901. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5602. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1.5420.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday extending the short covering rally off last Friday’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10780 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at .10543 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10780. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10938. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at .10584. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at .10543.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at 98.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 96.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 98.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.59. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.44.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July’s low crossing at .9860 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10153 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10153. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10330. First support is today’s low crossing at .9943. Second support is July’s low crossing at .9860.
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ENERGIES
October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews this summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.45. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.
October heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.39. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 292.61 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday’s high crossing at 317.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 317.56. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 322.90. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 305.33. Second support is August’s low crossing at 292.61.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday extending the decline off August’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 269.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.56. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 298.21. First support is today’s low crossing at 270.78. Second support is August’s low crossing at 269.93.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.543 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off August’s low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.543. Second support is August’s low crossing at 3.154.
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FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.88 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today’s rally, August’s high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling additional gains are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 26.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August’s low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June’s high crossing at 17.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last week’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.79 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August’s high, May’s low crossing at 81.83 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS
Corn closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.72 1/2.
December corn closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. There is little movement in the corn market as traders square positions ahead of tomorrow’s USDA world supply and demand estimates. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.73 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.73 3/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 5.08 1/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 4.57. Second support is August’s low crossing at 4.45 3/4.
December wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 6.48.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.49 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.49 1/4. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 6.79 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.36 3/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at 6.35 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at 6.94 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April’s high, weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.00 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.00 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.17. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 6.88 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.76 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 4 1/4-cents at 7.10.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this summer’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer’s decline, psychological support crossing at 7.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.28 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.48. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 7.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 7.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
soybeans closed up 3 1/4-cents at 13.58 1/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 26th gap crossing at 13.31 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 14.09 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 14.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.33 3/4. Second support is the August 26th gap crossing at 13.31 1/2.
December soybean meal closed up $2.80 at 428.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 26th gap crossing at 420.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 460.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 445.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 460.60. First support is the August 26th gap crossing at 420.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 416.80.
December soybean oil closed down 11 pts. at 42.96.
December soybeans closed lower on Wednesday extending Monday’s breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.61. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 42.67 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday’s high crossing at 44.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 44.46. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 45.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 42.67. Second support is August’s low crossing at 41.85.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3329.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3098.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 3182.00. Second resistance is monthly high crossing at 3329.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3098.51. Second support is August’s low crossing at 3049.25.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1646.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 1680.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1646.12. Second support is August’s low crossing at 1621.00.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes. If the Dow extends the rally off August’s low, the 62% retracement level of August’s decline crossing at 15,315 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,964 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15,305. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of August’s decline crossing at 15,315. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,964. Second support is August’s low crossing at 14,760.
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INTEREST RATES
T-bonds closed up 22/32 at 129-16.
December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at 125-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 132-04. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 128-12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.
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LIVESTOCK
hogs closed down $0.55 at $90.30.
October hog closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 95.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 91.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.69.
October cattle closed up $0.03 at 125.05.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday. However, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, August’s low crossing at 124.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.77 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.77. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 124.90. Second support is August’s low crossing at 124.12.
October feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $158.22.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday’s close below gap support crossing at 158.02 has tempered the near-term friendly outlook. If October renews the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing at 160.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 160.00. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 160.70. First support is gap support crossing at 158.02. Second support is August’s low crossing at 155.85.
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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold closed lower on Wednesday extending yesterday’s breakout below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1390.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August’s low crossing at 1272.10.
December silver closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 22.320 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the September-June decline crossing at 26.862 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 25.160. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-June decline crossing at 26.862. First support is today’s low crossing at 22.785. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 22.320.
December copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, the reaction low crossing at 314.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.32. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 339.50. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 322.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 314.00.
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