T H U R S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 31, 2013
7:30 AM ET. Jan Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M (previous -43%)
8:30 AM ET. 4 Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI Quarterly (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
ECI Yearly (previous +2%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales (previous 189.8K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 978.3K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 647.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Dec Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income (expected +1%; previous +0.6%)
Personal Spending (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.4%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 365K; previous 330K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -5K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3157000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -71K)
9:45 AM ET. Jan ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI
Employment Index (previous 45.9)
New Orders Index (previous 54)
Prices Paid Index (previous 61.7)
Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 50; previous 51.6)
Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -1.1%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2996B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net changed) (previous -172B)
1:00 PM ET. Jan Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator
DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 46.2)
3:00 PM ET. Jan Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M (previous -2.4%)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.25T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 308.11B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.91T)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 13M)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 5M)
Primary Dealer Borrowings
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 567M)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 562M)
Friday, February 1, 2013
8:30 AM ET. Jan U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +166K; previous +155K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 7.8%; previous 7.8%)
Average Hourly Earnings (previous 23.73)
Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (Expected +0.2; previous +0.07)
Manufacturing Payrolls (previous +25K)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0.1)
Service Producing Payrolls (previous +96K)
Government Payrolls (previous -13K)
Federal Payrolls (previous -3K)
Non-Farm Payrolls (Bench Net Chg)
Private Payroll (previous +168K)
9:00 AM ET. Jan US Manufacturing PMI
9:55 AM ET. Jan Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers –final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 71.5; previous 72.9)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 63.8)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.2)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 87)
10:00 AM ET. Dec Construction Spending – Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.6%; previous -0.3%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. Jan ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 51; previous 50.2)
Prices Index (previous 55.5)
Employment Index (previous 52.7)
Inventories (previous 43)
New Orders Index (previous 50.3)
Production Index (previous 52.6)
11:00 AM ET. Jan Global Manufacturing PMI
4:00 PM ET. Jan Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Annualized Vehicle Sales (expected 15.2M; previous 15.37M)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower due to profit taking overnight while at the
same time extending this month’s trading range above the 62% retracement level
of the September-November decline crossing at 2715.55. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March
renews the rally off the late-December low, the 87% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at crossing at 2804.15 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2707.75 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement
level of the September-November decline crossing at crossing at 2761.06. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at 2804.15. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2707.75.
Second support is the January 2nd gap crossing at 2665.00.
The March S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Yesterday’s report that the
US economy shrunk by 0.01% in the fourth quarter of last year has the
possibility of ending this winter’s rally at least for the time being.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1475.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance
crossing at 1526.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 1505.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at
1526.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1491.26. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1475.86.
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March T-bonds was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this winter’s decline, weekly support crossing at
139-14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 144-30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-30. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 146-17. First support is Wednesday’s low
crossing at 142-19. Second support is weekly support crossing at 139-14.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
March crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates
some of this winter’s rally following yesterday’s close above the 75%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 97.78.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally
off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at 99.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 95.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 98.24. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at 99.78. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
96.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.21.
March heating oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 315.01 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.44 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 312.40. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at
315.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.71. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.44.
March unleaded gas was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight
as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 308.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 283.79 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 303.98.
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 308.23. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 290.28. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 283.79.
March Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the aforementioned decline, this month’s low crossing at 3.100
is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
3.433 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.433. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 3.668. First
support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 3.232. Second support is this month’s low
crossing at 3.100.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline,
December’s low crossing at 79.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 79.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
79.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.93. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.21. Second support is December’s low
crossing at 79.01.
The March Euro was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this winter’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter’s rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 138.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 133.14 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 135.92.
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 138.31. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 134.28. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 133.14.
The March British Pound was lower overnight hinting that the two-day short
covering bounce off Monday’s low might be coming to an end. However,
stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this month’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 1.5598
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.5943 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5813. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5943. First support is Monday’s low
crossing at 1.5670. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
May-January rally crossing at 1.5598.
The March Swiss Franc was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this week’s rally, December’s high crossing at .11026 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10814 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at .11009. Second resistance is December’s high
crossing at .11026. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
.10814. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally
crossing at .10679.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight following a three-day short
covering bounce. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 100.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If March renews this month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 98.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.95. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 100.62. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
98.89. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at
98.35.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of
Wednesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off September’s high, monthly support crossing at .10702 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.11216 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11216. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at .11522. First support is Wednesday’s low
crossing at .10943. Second support is monthly support crossing at .10702.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s rally,
the October-November downtrend line crossing near 1697.50 is the next upside
target. If April renews the decline off this month’s high, this month’s low
crossing at 1627.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
October-November downtrend line crossing near 1697.50. Second resistance is
this month’s high crossing at 1699.90. First support is Monday’s low crossing
at 1653.20. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 1627.90.
March silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 32.485 are needed to renew this month’s rally. If March renews
the decline off this month’s high, this month’s low crossing at 29.240 is the
next downside target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 32.365.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.600. First support is
Monday’s low crossing at 30.745. Second support is this month’s low crossing at
29.240.
March copper was slightly higher overnight and spiked above the previous
reaction high crossing at 375.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 382.90 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 367.93 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing
at 377.25. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 382.90. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 367.93. Second support is this
month’s low crossing at 359.95.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee close lower on Wednesday and is poised to renew last week’s
decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last week’s
decline, the reaction low crossing at 14.12 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.05 would temper the bearish
outlook.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off September’s high, the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 21.45 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.33 would
confirm that a low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 18.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If March renews this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of
the 2012-decline crossing at 86.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 77.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March corn was fractionally lower in late-overnight trading after spiking
above the 38% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 7.42.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the
August-January decline crossing at 7.61 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.15 3/4 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level
of the August-January decline crossing at 7.42. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 7.61 3/4. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.15 3/4. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 6.86 1/4.
March wheat was lower overnight and the low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March renews the rally off this month’s low, the 38% retracement
level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.10 1/2 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.69 1/4 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January decline
crossing at 8.33 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.69 1/4. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 7.36 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 10-cents at 8.40 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above last Wednesday’s high crossing at 8.38 1/2 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off
this month’s high, the gap crossing at 8.16 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.47. Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.53. First
support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 8.29 1/2. Second support is this
month’s low crossing at 7.89 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month’s
trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March renews the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at 9.11
1/2 is the next upside target. If March the decline off this month’s high, this
month’s low crossing at 8.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 8.82 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 9.11 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.52 1/4.
Second support is this month’s low crossing at 8.30.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for
steady to lower prices when the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the September-January decline
crossing at 14.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.20 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14.84 1/4. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January decline
crossing at 14.95 1/4. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.20 1/4. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 13.51 1/2.
March soybean meal was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Multiple closes above the overnight high crossing at 434.40
would confirm an upside breakout of the September-December downtrend line while
opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the
September-January decline crossing at 440.40. First resistance is the overnight
high crossing at 434.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
September-January decline crossing at 440.40. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 414.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 408.00.
March soybean oil was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as
it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish
hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends
the rally off December’s low, the 50% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 53.13 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.09 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level
of the September-November decline crossing at 53.13. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 54.49.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.05. Second support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.09.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.37 at $89.25.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off this month’s low, the
reaction high crossing at 90.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 87.10 would confirm that a top has been posted.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.90. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 91.82. First support is last Wednesday’s low
crossing at 87.10. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 86.90.
April cattle closed down $0.05 at 132.92.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday’s
rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.60 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If April renews this month’s decline, last June’s low
crossing at 127.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 133.60. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 135.17. First support is Monday’s gap crossing at 131.25. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 129.45.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.27 at $149.10.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
150.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
renews this month’s decline, weekly support low crossing at 141.30 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
150.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.70. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 144.65. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 141.30.
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T H A N K Y O U
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