Quartz Weekend Brief—Throwback sports, earthquake math, Baltimore, rate rigging

Good morning, Quartz readers!

Sport fans will be forgiven if they think they have fallen into a time warp this weekend.

On Saturday evening in the US, two grown men will attempt to knock each other unconscious for profit. Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao is the most eagerly anticipated boxing match in years, withrecord-breaking audiences expected inside the Las Vegas arena where it’s being held and at home on TV. (Last-minute tickets are proving to be a better deal.)

Boxing’s popularity in the US peaked in the middle of the 20th century. Its subsequent decline is explained, in part, by changing attitudes toward brutal violence. But the sport is in the midst of a mini-revival in the US and Asia and has been resilient in some countries, like Mexico. Pay-per-view receipts for the fight, at $99 per household, were lucrative enough to unite two of television’s biggest rivals, HBO and Showtime.

The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight will be proceeded by another throwback, the 141st edition of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon in Louisville. There was a time when horse racing ranked among America’s favorite forms of entertainment as well. Its decline is blamed on everything from new forms of gambling to the suburbanization of the US to concerns about animal cruelty.

Some Americans will tune into another sporting event this weekend, one that strangely enough, doesn’t actually involve an athletic contest. The National Football League’s draft, the annual process used to assign college players to professional teams, concludes on Saturday. American football is easily the country’s biggest spectator sport at the moment, thanks to being perfectly tailored for high-definition televisions. But the TV industry is undergoing rapid change, and the NFL is grappling with disturbingly violent issues of its own, on and off the field.

Football may be a long way from suffering the fate of boxing, but the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout should serve as a reminder that a popular pastime can quickly recede into the past. —John McDuling

QUARTZ ANNOUNCEMENT

Big data, meet Harvard Law. A billion people will log on to the internet for the first time by 2017—how will this surge of new internet users impact net neutrality policy? Hear from Lawrence Lessig, Harvard Law School’s Roy L. Furman Professor of Law and Leadership, at The Next Billion, Quartz’s forum on the connected world. Join us in London on 19 May.

Five things on Quartz we especially liked

We’re trying out a new feature this weekend that lets you save each link to Pocket, so you can read them later. Just tap “Pocket” next to each item.

How our clothing came to define our gender. The idea that humans are either male or female is deeply ingrained in Western culture, but as research and the experiences of countless non-gender-conforming people show, sex and gender aren’t perfectly binary. Marc Bain explores how the fashion world is finally beginning to embrace the ideaof “gender neutral” clothing. (Save to Pocket)

Video conferencing comes to jail. Hundreds of prisons have eliminated in-person meetings between prisoner and their families in favor of “video visitations,” which are considered cheaper and more secure. “It’s torture,” the sister of one convict tells Hanna Kozlowska about not being able to see her inmate brother in person. (Pocket)

Growing up in Baltimore. Yitz Jordan reflects on his childhood as the son of a single mother long before the city erupted this week in protests over police brutality. “My mother did way more than keep me from dying,” he writes. “She made me succeed at living.” (Pocket)

Speaking of Floyd Mayweather. Many people forget the boxer has a history of domestic violence that spans over 10 years and five different women. Meredith Bennett-Smith argues that anyone choosing to watch the fight this weekend is implicitly endorsing violence against women. (Pocket)

The math of earthquakes. Following the devastation in Nepal, David Yanofsky and Annalisa Merelli mapped the world’s greatest seismic hazards (Pocket); Yanofsky and Akshat Rathi explained the logarithmic Richter scale (Pocket); and Rathi and Shelly Walia looked at why women are more likely to die in a natural disaster (Pocket).

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

Did rigging markets help Deutsche Bank avoid a bailout? Last week, the German banking giant paid a record $2.5 billion penalty to settle allegations that it manipulated interest rates. In Euromoney, Jon Macaskill trawls through the case files and comes to a controversial conclusion: It looks like those sharp practices were profitable enough to explain why Deutsche Bank, unlike many of its rivals, was able to avoid a government bailout during the 2008 credit crunch. (Pocket)

The link between diversity and segregation. American cities like Chicago are among the most racially diverse in the country. But as Nate Silver mapped out in FiveThirtyEight, they tend to be the most racially segregated, as well. The opposite is often true: Less diverse cities, like Lincoln, Nebraska, are at least better integrated. (Pocket)

Silk Road’s rise and fall. The anonymous online marketplace, famous for popularizing bitcoin and also facilitating drug transactions, was the epitome of a black market. And then it all came crashing down amid accusations that included a conspiracy to commit six murders. Joshuah Bearman and Tomer Hanuka chronicled the whole story in Wired. (Pocket)

The secret history of Secret. The anonymous messaging app announced this week that it will shut down, not long after being considered the next big thing in Silicon Valley. Mike Isaac in the New York Times details how Secret went from hockey-stick growth to Ferraris to its founder espousing a belief in “failing fast.” (Pocket)

How fast America changes its mind. With the US Supreme Court considering the legality of gay marriage this week, Alex Tribou and Keith Collins in Bloomberg Business charted the relative speed of changing opinions on issues from abortion to marijuana. (Pocket)

Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, left hooks, and gender-neutral clothing tohi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the weekend.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

Quartz Daily Brief—#Tesla’s battery reveal, Asian economies lag, restricting the #NSA, embracing “dadbod”

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Tesla unveils standalone batteries. Elon Musk will introduce a battery system called “Powerwall” for homes and businesses, which could eventually store cheaper off-peak energy to use when power grids are strained and electricity is more expensive.

Turkey braces for Labor Day protests. The government is readying at least 10,000 police officers in Istanbul and erecting iron barricades in the city center in anticipation of possible unrest. Last year’s Labor Day demonstrations resulted in 140 arrests and 90 injuries.

Malaysia Airlines gets a new CEO. Christoph Mueller takes the helmat the airline that lost two planes and more than 500 lives in 2014. The former head of Aer Lingus will cut 6,000 jobs and restructure its fleet, including the sale or lease of its Airbus A380s and other large jets.

China launches a deposit insurance program. The system willsecure up to 500,000 yuan ($80,550) of bank deposits for businesses and individuals. The new policy is designed to boost borrower’s confidence, but also risks making major banks “too big to fail.”

Earnings, earnings, earnings. Companies opening up their books today: Chevron, CVS, Lloyds Bank, Wynn Resorts, and Yahoo Japan.

While you were sleeping

More bad news than good in Japan… The core inflation rate rose a tiny bit in March, to 0.2% from 0%, but household spending slumped and real wages fell for the 23rd straight month. The underwhelming numbers put more pressure on the central bank, which earlier this week opted not to expand its stimulus program.

…And China’s economy also lagged. The government’s purchasing manufacturer’s index for April, which mostly looks at large state-owned firms, held steady at 50.1, barely above the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction. The country’s ruling Politburo said it will also increase government spending and cut taxes.

The US moved to revamp the Patriot Act and rein in the NSA. A bipartisan bill that would limit the bulk collection of US citizens’ telephone records cleared a key House committee ahead of its likely passage. A parallel Senate bill has support from Democrats and several key Republicans, including presidential candidate Rand Paul.

Investors freaked over LinkedIn’s unremarkable earnings. The earnings themselves were fine, but the company’s outlook for the next quarter and fiscal year fell far short of expectations. The stock dropped 25% within minutes, wiping out around $6 billion in market capitalization.

The US Navy began escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The move was a response to Iran’s seizure of a ship last week in the strategically crucial waterway. The US has also dispatched an aircraft carrier to deter potential Iranian military aid to rebels in Yemen.

Time Warner Cable’s earnings flopped, but it may have another suitor. The US cable television and broadband provider posted a first-quarter profit below analysts’ estimates, thanks to TV channels charging more for their content. In the wake of the failed Comcast acquisition of Time Warner, Charter Communications is reportedly looking into making its own bid (paywall).

QUARTZ ANNOUNCEMENT

A day of analog discovery. Word-of-mouth dominates app discovery across emerging markets. Register for Quartz’s The Next Billion, May 19 in London to hear Nathan Eagle, Founder and CEO of Jana, discuss how to gain visibility for apps in Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

Quartz obsession interlude

Akshat Rathi on hacking your coffee habit. “You probably don’t want to be that person who cries, ‘I need coffee. I can’t think.’ But there is a way of enjoying some of coffee’s benefits without getting addicted to it. You just need to know how to hack coffee’s half-life.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Racial stereotypes are relative. What if Asian Americans talked about white Americans the way whites talk about black Americans?

The Pope has made it halfway to truly supporting women. His goal of “radical gender equality” also requires access to contraception.

The most important feature in self-driving cars will be human control. Automation will always fail, at least some of the time

Germany does globalization right. Shifting power from shareholders and management to labor has kept high-skilled jobs at home.

Think like a hostage negotiator to get a bigger raise. “The most dangerous negotiation is the one you don’t know you’re in.”

Surprising discoveries

“Dadbod” is the male version of the “yummy mummy.” The in-vogue physique requires both exercise and a moderate pizza intake.

Prepare yourself for drone graffiti. In a sign of things to come, a drone vandalized one of New York City’s biggest billboards this week.

Italy is growing its own weed. A military base has opened a grow house to produce 100 kg (220 lb) of medical marijuana a year.

Humblebragging doesn’t work. Simply bragging without the fake humility is actually more effective.

Wearing a suit changes your brain. Suited-up research subjectsignored fine-grained details and more easily grasped the big picture.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, dadbod workout and diet tips, and drone grafitti tags tohi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

CWS Market Review – May 1, 2015

May 1, 2015
“If being the biggest company was a guarantee of success, we’d all be
using IBM computers and driving GM cars.” – James Surowiecki

Our earnings streak came to an end this week. Our first nine Buy List stocks to report Q1 earnings all beat expectations, but this week, two of our stocks met expectations and another two missed expectations. Fortunately, the misses weren’t that bad, and our Buy List continues to lead the overall market.

So far, the major trend of this earnings season is this: the weak dollar did a lot of damage, but not as much as initially feared. Before earnings season started, analysts had been expecting earnings to fall by 5.8%. It looks like the decline will be 2.9%. I suspect that people have underestimated the improvements in productivity.

In this week’s CWS Market Review, we’ll take a closer look at the earnings parade. I’ll also preview the Buy List earnings coming next week. We also had a Fed meeting, plus a GDP report that was just ugly. The bright spot came on Thursday with the second-lowest number of initial jobless claims in the last 43 years. That may bode well for the April jobs report, which comes out next Friday. But first, let’s look at that GDP report and what it means for us.

The Economy Was Bad in Q1, but Will It Last?

On Wednesday, the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.2% annualized rate for the first three months of the year. That was well below expectations.

So what happened? Well, a number of factors. The strong dollar took its toll. Net exports fell by 7.2%. The bad weather most likely did some damage, as did the West Coast port strike. The plunge in oil prices also hurt the energy sector. Public-sector spending was also down.

If we dig a little deeper into the numbers, the details were still bad, but not quite so dire. Personal-consumption expenditures, which is the fancy term for consumer spending, grew at a 1.9% annualized rate.

The economy is probably rebounding this quarter. The dollar is beginning to stabilize, and the price of oil is firming up. On Thursday, we learned that real personal income rose by 0.3% in March. It appears that workers are finally getting a (small) wage increase. In the last year, the Employment Cost Index is up 2.6%.

image1471

Janet Yellen and her friends at the Federal Reserve are certainly paying attention to wage figures. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen, we haven’t seen much in the way of higher labor costs. The last jobs report was pretty weak, but there are hints the April jobs report will be a lot better. As I mentioned before, Thursday’s report for initial jobless claims was quite strong.

The Fed has held firm to the view that a rate hike is coming, and most likely this year, even though it’s hedged on exactly when. There’s now a slowly emerging consensus that the Fed will raise rates in September. In fact, there’s now some daylight between the six-month and one-year Treasury yields, which suggests that rates will be rising sometime soon.

The Fed met again this week, and the policy statement confirmed their belief that the softness in Q1 was probably temporary. As a result, the Treasury climbed higher this week. For the first time in a month, the 10-year yield broke above 2%. Mirroring that move, many defensive stocks like utilities and healthcare lagged behind this week. CR Bard (BCR), for example, gapped up after its earnings beat, but has gradually slid back since.

I think the Fed is getting ahead of itself. It’s hard to say for certain, but I don’t think the economy will need a rate hike for several more months. But once rates go higher, there will be greater demand for stocks with solid dividends. That’s why I continue to urge investors to stay with high-quality stocks with growing earnings and dividends such as you’ll find on our Buy List. Now let’s take a look at this week’s earnings reports.

Earnings from Ford, AFLAC, Express Scripts and Ball Corp.

On Tuesday, Ford Motor (F) reported Q1 earnings of 23 cents per share. Technically, that was an earnings miss, since it was three cents below consensus, but truthfully, it was a decent report. Ford said that it got dinged for two cents due to a higher-than-expected tax rate.

Quarterly revenue fell 6% to $33.9 billion. The story is largely what we expected. North America is doing well, while Europe and South America are still weak. One bright spot is China, where Ford is gaining ground, but it’s far behind the competition.

Ford made it clear that they’re ramping up production to meet demand for their F-150 trucks. The automaker spent a lot of money (and time) retooling its plants to make the new aluminum-based trucks. That was a big gamble, and it’s starting to pay off. We’ll see more evidence as the year goes on. The F-Series has been the top-selling truck for 33 years in a row.

Traders apparently agreed that Ford’s Q1 wasn’t so bad because despite the earnings miss, the stock rose on Tuesday. Ford Motor remains a good buy up to $17 per share.

After the bell on Tuesday, AFLAC (AFL) reported Q1 operating earnings of $1.54 per share. That matched Wall Street’s forecast. The duck stock said that the weak yen knocked off 13 cents per share last quarter.

Again, there’s nothing really surprising in this report. The company reiterated that they aim to grow their operating earnings by 2% to 7% this year, on a currency-neutral basis. For Q2, AFLAC expects earnings to range between $1.46 and $1.57 per share. That assumes the yen averages between 120 and 125 to the dollar. The yen has actually gained a bit recently.

For the full year, AFLAC sees operating earnings coming in between $5.74 to $6.15 per share. Again, that assumes the yen stays between 120 and 125 to the dollar. The shares pulled back after the earnings report, but the damage wasn’t too bad. The stock is still going for a little over 10 times this year’s earnings. I’m keeping my Buy Below at $65 per share.

Express Scripts (ESRX) also met Wall Street’s forecast. The pharmacy-benefits manager earned $1.10 per share for Q1. Overall, it was a good quarter for Express Scripts.

“As our industry evolves, and plan sponsors have more business models to choose from, it is increasingly clear that Express Scripts is the best choice to manage America’s pharmacy benefits,” stated George Paz, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “At every turn, we add value to healthcare by combining a superior model of patient care with aggressive payer advocacy. Our unique combination of scale, client alignment and unmatched will, consistently creates greater value for patients and payers, while delivering solid results for our shareholders.”

Express Scripts also narrowed its full-year guidance by two cents per share at both ends. The old range was $5.35 to $5.49 per share. The new range is $5.37 to $5.47 per share, which translates to a growth rate of 10% to 12%. That’s not bad. For Q2, which ends on June 30, ESRX expects earnings of $1.39 to $1.43 per share. That’s better than the $1.37 Wall Street had been expecting.

The shares had an unusual ride this week. The stock initially gapped up after the earnings report. ESRX got as high as $88.99 on Wednesday morning before pulling back to $84.79 by the end of the day. Then after the closing bell on Wednesday, the company announced that it was accelerating its share-repurchase program. Express Scripts will get about 55.1 million shares in exchange for a payment of $5.5 billion. That helped the stock open strongly on Thursday.

Then news broke late Thursday that ESRX, among others, might be interested in buying Omnicare (OCR), a supplier of drugs to nursing homes. I won’t even begin to guess whether a deal will come about, but ESRX certainly has the financial muscle to make it happen. Frankly, they’re going to be named in any discussion of a buyout in this sector. Express Scripts is a solid buy up to $89 per share.

On Thursday, Ball Corp. (BLL), one of our new stocks this year, announced Q1 earnings of 69 cents per share. That was a big earnings miss—10 cents below consensus. But again, looking at the details, the results weren’t that bad. Revenue slightly beat consensus, and Ball lost 16 cents per share last quarter due to currency costs. The can maker also reiterated that it expects full-year free cash flow of $600 million.

John A Hayes, Ball’s CEO said, “First-quarter results were largely impacted by expected headwinds totaling 16 cents per diluted share from foreign currency translation, higher metal premiums in Europe and start-up costs related to growth capital investments. We continue to invest in our future with ongoing capital projects in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia that will fully ramp up in the second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016.”

Scott C. Morrison, the CFO, added, “Operationally, our first-quarter results were largely in line with our expectations. While metal premiums and start-up costs will persist in the second quarter, and currency translation will remain a headwind for the balance of the year, our business remains solid.” He also said that company has begun several hedges in order to mitigate currency costs.

Traders seemed to agree that Ball’s quarter was just fine. The stock dropped 0.6% on Thursday, which was less than the 1% fall for the S&P 500. Ball Corp. remains a good buy anytime it’s below $75 per share.

I also want to add a quick word on Microsoft (MSFT). In last week’s CWS Market Review, I said I wanted to hold off on changing my Buy Below on Microsoft because I wanted to see how the market responded to the strong earnings report. Well, now we know. The market liked it. A lot!

big.chart05012015

Shares of MSFT soared more than 10% last Friday—and kept going. At one point on Thursday, Microsoft got as high as $49.54 per share. That’s not far from its 15-year high. Even with the price surge, the dividend still yields more than 2.5%. It’s about time this stock got some attention from the market. I’m raising my Buy Below on Microsoft to $51 per share.

Earnings Next Week from Cognizant and Fiserv

We have our final two earnings reports next week. Cognizant Technology Solutions reports on Monday, May 4. Fiserv follows on Tuesday, May 5.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) has been our top-performing stock this year (+11.2%). Three months ago, the company reported very good Q4 results. Revenues rose 16.4% to $2.74 billion, and EPS beat expectations by two cents. Cognizant has been helped by its aggressive expansion into healthcare.

For Q1, Cognizant said they see earnings of at least 69 cents per share. I assume that means they expect 70 cents per share. They also see Q1 revenues of at least $2.88 billion. For all of 2014, Cognizant projects earnings of at least $2.91 per share on revenue of at least $12.21 billion. That means CTSH is going for about 20 times this year’s earnings. I’m not a pure value investor, so I don’t mind paying a growth premium as long as the company is worth it, and CTSH surely is.

Last year was Fiserv’s (FISV) 29th year in a row of double-digit earnings growth. In February, the company said they expect internal revenue growth of 5% to 6% for this year. They also expect EPS to range between $3.73 and $3.83. That represents a growth rate of 11% to 14%, so the earnings streak should continue. Wall Street expects Q1 earnings of 86 cents per share. That sounds about right to me.

Moog (MOG-A) confirmed that their fiscal Q2 earnings report will come out later today. I’ll have details on the blog. Last quarter was weak due to the strong dollar. The company also cut full-year guidance to $3.85 per share (it could be $3.95 with buybacks). As with a lot of companies, I don’t think the damage from the dollar will be quite so bad.

That’s all for now. Still more earnings to come next week. On Wednesday, we’ll get the productivity report. Also, ADP will release its jobs report. Initial jobless claims follow on Thursday, and that leads us up to the big April jobs report on Friday morning. The March report was a dud, so it will be interesting to see if there’s a rebound. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Image
Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 seven times in the last eight years. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.
2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Websim Focus sui Mercati finanziari 30/04/2015 – WS

Wall Street ha chiuso in moderato calo, disturbata, più che impaurita, dalla frenata superiore alle attese della crescita economica registrata nei primi tre mesi del 2015: Dow Jones -0,4%, S&P500 -0,4%, Nasdaq -0,6%.

Il comunicato della Fed ha deluso chi si aspettava indicazioni sulla tempistica del rialzo dei tassi. La banca centrale sembra voler tenere aperta la porta ad una prima stretta già a giugno, anche se il consensus prevede un incremento a settembre, ma forse anche dopo.

Asia. Stamattina le vendite prevalgono anche sui listini dell’Estremo Oriente. Indice MSCI Asia Pacific -1,2%. Il Nikkei di Tokyo è in calo del 2,5% dopo che la Banca centrale ha confermato, senza incrementi, il piano di stimolo monetario da 672 miliardi di dollari di acquisti di bond all’anno.

Le Borse cinesi sono contrastate: Hong Kong -0,9%, con le banche in calo a causa dell’emergere di timori sulla quantità di crediti in sofferenza presenti nei loro bilanci, CSI 300 +0,5%. Il Sensex della Borsa di Mumbay perde l’1%, Seul -0,6%.

I future sulle borse europee anticipano un avvio in rialzo dello 0,2% dopo due sedute pesanti.

Italia. Oggi sono in agenda gli altri due voti di fiducia sulla riforma elettorale.

Grecia. Il negoziato tra Atene e i suoi creditori si avvia alle battute finali: oggi il Brussels Group si riunirà con i negoziatori che sottoporranno la nuova lista di riforme. Per i greci l’intesa sarebbe vicina ma l’Europa è più cauta e vuole vedere le carte prima di decidere. Intanto la Bce continua a sostenere le banche greche, aumentando di altri 1,4 miliardi la liquidità d’emergenza (Ela). Restiamo ottimisti.

Analisi tecnica borse. Oggi è l’ultima seduta di un mese di aprile un po’ più volatile dei tre mesi precedenti. Con la flessione delle ultime due sedute, Milano e Francoforte hanno azzerato la performance positiva mensile, ma occorre ricordare che il primo trimestre è stato molto ricco. Per il resto, Wall Street, Cina e Tokio si muovono ancora a ridosso dei top di periodo. Solo Mumbay evidenzia qualche segnale di debolezza scivolando stamattina sui minimi dal sei gennaio. La performance da inizio 2015 si è ridotta a +6%.

FtseMib (22.995, -2,28%). La caduta di ieri si è fermata sulla parte bassa del range di breve tra 23mila/23.600 punti entro cui l’indice sta costruendo una fase di consolidamento da qualche settimana. Eventuali estensioni della correzione verso i sostegni significativi in area 22.500/22mila punti sono da sfruttare per gli acquisti. Ostacoli a 24mila/24.500 punti.

Variabili macro

Petrolio. La discesa del dollaro e i dati sulle scorte Usa meno negativi del previsto hanno spinto il prezzo sui massimi dall’8 dicembre. Stamattina Wti a 58,6 usd, Brent 65,8 usd.
Operatività. Alziamo l’allerta, ma restiamo ancora alla finestra. Faremo nuovi acquisti in tendenza solo in caso di superamento di area 60 e 70 usd rispettivamente. Giudizio Interessante.

Oro (1.204 usd). Nemmeno l’esplosione di volatilità di ieri è riuscita a ridestare il trend. Stiamo fuori. Attenzione ai forti supporti verso 1.150/1.130 usd il cui cedimento aprirebbe la strada a una repentina caduta. Giudizio Neutrale.

Forex

Euro/Dollaro (1,1092). Lo shock del dato sul Pil Usa di ieri ha spinto l’euro sui massimi dal 3 marzo scorso, oltre la parte alta del range di breve tra 1,05-1,10. La tendenza di fondo rimane favorevole al dollaro e questi livelli, fino a 1,16, sono da sfruttare per nuovi acquisti di dollari. Vedi commento nella rubrica Fatti & Effetti.

Bond

Bund. Proseguono le prese di profitto. Il rendimento del Bund decennale tedesco è rimbalzato sui massimi dal 9 marzo a 0,29%. Il minimo storico risale al 20 aprile (0,075%).

Grecia. Il mercato è meno pessimista sull’esito delle trattative. Il rendimento del decennale è sceso al 10,80%, il bond a 2 anni è sceso al 20%.

Italia. L’approvazione definitiva della legge elettorale potrebbe avere risonanza positiva all’estero (le diatribe interne al PD interessano poco) e contribuire a chiudere lo spread Btp/Bund che oggi riapre a quota 120, rendimento 1,48%.

http://www.websim.it

Quartz Daily Brief—#Tesla’s new batteries, #Bernanke’s new job, tattoos vex the #Apple Watch, glow-in-the-dark corpses

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The final UK showdown. Prime minister David Cameron faces his main opponent, Labour Party leader Ed Miliband, in the fourth and final debate (paywall) before the May 7 election. Recent polls suggest Cameron has a slight lead with 35% of the vote; Miliband is just three points behind.

Elon Musk unveils two gigantic batteries. Tesla has already let the cat out of of the bag: the company will sell one battery that can power homes and another “utility-scale” battery for companies.

Will the Bank of Japan push the stimulus button? Inflation is expected to come in below the country’s target of 2%. The central bank has indicated that it will back off and hope for the best, though “Abenomics” boosters are urging additional measures.

NASA crashes a spaceship into Mercury. The Messenger spacecraft was supposed to circle Mercury for one year gathering data, but NASA extended its mission by three years. It’s now running out of fuel after 11 years in service, and projections show it should smash into the planet today.

Earnings. Companies set to open the books include: Air France, Airbus, BNP Paribas, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Expedia, Exxon Mobil, LinkedIn, Royal Dutch Shell, Sony, STMicroelectronics, Viacom, and Visa.

While you were sleeping

A socialist US senator is running for president. Independent Vermont senator Bernie Sanders calls himself a “democratic socialist,” and could appeal to those on the progressive left who believe Hillary Clinton is too moderate. Sanders supports universal healthcare, and has also championed income equality and higher taxes on the rich.

Ben Bernanke scored another job. The former Federal Reserve chairman became an consultant for bond giant Pimco, where he will “contribute his economic expertise to the firm’s investment process.” He has also taken a job with the hedge fund Citadel.

Salesforce is considering a buyout offer. The cloud-based business software firm is working with bankers as it weighs a takeover bid from an unnamed suitor, according to Bloomberg. Microsoft and Oracle are among the potential acquirers, in what would be one of the biggest software deals ever.

Baidu’s switch to mobile dented its bottom line. The Chinese search engine’s switch to mobile led to a first-quarter net income of 2.4 billion yuan ($400 million), down 3.4% from a year earlier but slightly better than an expected 2.3 billion yuan. Mobile search numbers are growing, but they bring in less revenue than traditional web searches.

Perrigo rejected Mylan’s takeover offer. The Netherlands-based generic drugmaker’s unsolicited bid involved a mixture of cash and shares worth $34.1 billion. Mylan is trying to buyits Ireland-based rival to avoid being snapped up by another generic drug maker, and is expected to increase its offer.

Brazil jacked up interest rates. The central bank increased its benchmark rate to 13.25%, from 12.75%, marking its fourth raise in five months. The move is aimed at curbing inflation and encouraging investor trust in the economy.

The iPhone boosted Taiwan’s GDP. Exports and manufacturing related to the iPhone 6 helped Taiwan’s economy grow 3.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier, in line with expectations. In the future, however, demand for the iPhone is predicted to plateau, with analysts predicting a slowdown in growth.

Quartz obsession interlude

Shelly Banjo parses Jeff Bezos’ annual shareholder letter.“Amazon is now a mega-corp comprising an e-commerce company, a hardware and device maker, a government services provider, a cloud computing and marketing company, a transportation and logistics outfit, a lender, a payment processor, and a warehouse operator. As we learn from this year’s letter, it’s also an educator (it now offers continuing education classes in its warehouses) and is fast-becoming a media magnate.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Free-trade policies hurt US workers… Bernie Sanders argues that they encourage the outsourcing of middle-class jobs.

…But are good for US businesses. Asia’s own gigantic middle classis too good an opportunity to pass up.

Let David Cameron finish fixing the UK. Michael Bloomberg says he rarely endorses candidates, but he’s making an exception for Britain’s upcoming election.

Indonesia needs to fix its drug policies. Aside from the recent executions, prison populations are soaring and HIV/AIDS is spreading.

Greece should study Argentina—but not follow its lead, which saw the lower middle class suffer the most (paywall) after a default.

Surprising discoveries

The Apple Watch’s heart rate sensor won’t work on tattooed wrists. The watch may not even acknowledge you’re wearing it.

A Columbian reporter sent himself death threats. He didn’t want to lose his government bodyguards.

You’re more likely to have leprosy than you realize. Plenty of asymtomatic people carry the disease.

Corpses can glow in the dark. Post-mortem luminescence is caused by a mold known as “honey fungus.”

Lake Michigan is so clear you can see shipwrecks from the sky.It’s too cold for algae to cloud the water.

Correction: Yesterday, a link in our Matter of Debate entitled “We are all suckers for credit cards” took readers to the wrong destination;here is the article.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Apple Watch-friendly tattoos and recovered shipwrecks tohi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

Which is Best: 50, 100, or 200 Day MA? – 04/29/2015

Stocks broke under 2100 for a short spell on Tuesday. Buyers were at the ready with the S&P sprinting back to 2114 by the close.

This had me pondering what would happen if we fell under 2100. How far down would we go?

Historically I have relied upon the 50 and 200 day moving averages to help frame the key support levels. Yet today I added the 100 day moving average to the chart. As you can see in the chart to the right it has been the most accurate trend line showing where support lies…which right now is 2067.

If Q1 GDP today or ISM Manufacturing on Friday are weak, then you can expect a move down to the 100 day moving average in a hurry. Hopefully those announcements are positive and we make our long awaited move to 2150…maybe 2200 if all the stars align.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

TITOLI SOTTO LA LENTE PRIMA DELL’APERTURA 29/04/2015 – WS

Dopo il calo di ieri, le Borse europee sono indirizzate stamattina verso un avvio in cauto progresso: i future sugli indici di Londra, Parigi e Francoforte salgono dello 0,1%.

In Asia si registrano Borse deboli: Hong Kong scende dello 0,1%, Seul -0,2%, Mumbai -0,6%. E’ positiva Shanghai +0,2%, mentre a Tokio la Borsa è chiusa per festività.

Il cambio euro/dollaro è indicato a 1,096, poco mosso da 1,098 della chiusura di ieri sera.

Petrolio in lieve calo con il Brent a 64,5 dollari al barile (-0,1%), Wti a 56,9 dollari (-0,2%).

Il dato principale della giornata sarà il Pil degli Stati Uniti del primo trimestre, che dovrebbe confermare quanto gli indicatori congiunturali hanno già anticipato con chiarezza, ovvero un marcato rallentamento dell’economia nei primi mesi del 2015. Le stime indicano una crescita del Pil dell’1% annualizzato, nettamente inferiore al 2,2% del quarto trimestre 2014.
In Germania sarà diffuso il dato dell’inflazione di aprile, con i prezzi al consumo previsti in calo dello 0,1% sul mese di marzo e a +0,4% sull’aprile 2014.

Dopo che nell’asta di Bot semestrali di ieri il tasso è sceso per la prima volta a zero, si giocherà sul filo dei centesimi la possibilità di vedere nuovi minimi di rendimento nei collocamenti a medio lungo di oggi. In offerta ci sono fino a 8,25 miliardi complessivi del nuovo Btp quinquennale maggio 2020 (cedola 0,70%).

Fra i titoli che potrebbero muoversi a Piazza Affari, segnaliamo:

Mediaset (MS.MI) : secondo MF, ieri Rupert Murdoch ha fatto visita a Silvio Berlusconi per parlare della fusione Sky-Premium.

Eni (ENI.MI) ha chiuso il primo trimestre con un utile netto adjusted superiore al consensus degli analisti.

Fiat Chrysler (FCA.MI) ha inaugurato lo stabilimento di Pernambuco, in Brasile, che ha una capacità produttiva di 250.000 veicoli all’anno.

Triboo Media (TBM.MI): l’assemblea della società specializzata nei servizi media e di pubblicità online, quotata sul segmento AIM Italia, ha approvato i risultati del 2014: fatturato +33,5%; Ebitda +34,5%; utile netto in calo su base annua (-23,6%). Approvata la distribuzione di un dividendo di 0,125 euro pari a un rendimento del 3% circa. Lo stacco è previsto per il prossimo 5 maggio.
http://www.websim.it