Is No News Truly Good News?

Stocks were up for a second straight day. However, one has to wonder if there is a false sense of security allowing this to happen.

You see, the Chinese market is closed for a couple days for a national holiday. So there are no scary headlines to weigh on the nerves of investors around the globe. And as I have often pointed out, the stock market is somewhat like a helium balloon. Its natural tendency is to go up as long as something isn’t pushing it down.

So the question at this time is: What happens when the Chinese market comes back on line and the next set of economic data get released?

The answer to that will be much more telling for how world markets move forward than how this week wraps up.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Introductory statement to the press conference of the ECB, 3 September 2015

Introductory statement to the press conference

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Frankfurt am Main, 3 September 2015

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council. As usual, let me start with the decisions taken.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analysis, and in line with our forward guidance, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest ratesunchanged.

Our asset purchase programme continues to proceed smoothly. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, following the announced review of the public sector purchase programme’s issue share limit after the first six months of purchases, the Governing Council decided to increase the issue share limit from the initial limit of 25% to 33%, subject to a case-by-case verification that this would not create a situation whereby the Eurosystem would have blocking minority power, in which case the issue share limit would remain at 25%.

Underlying our monetary policy assessment was a review of recent data, new staff macroeconomic projections and an interim evaluation of recent market fluctuations. The information available indicates a continued though somewhat weaker economic recovery and a slower increase in inflation rates compared with earlier expectations. More recently, renewed downside risks have emerged to the outlook for growth and inflation. However, owing to sharp fluctuations in financial and commodity markets, the Governing Council judged it premature to conclude on whether these developments could have a lasting impact on the outlook for prices and on the achievement of a sustainable path of inflation towards our medium-term aim, or whether they should be considered to be mainly transitory.

Accordingly, the Governing Council will closely monitor all relevant incoming information. It emphasises its willingness and ability to act, if warranted, by using all the instruments available within its mandate and, in particular, recalls that the asset purchase programme provides sufficient flexibility in terms of adjusting the size, composition and duration of the programme.

In the meantime, we will fully implement our monthly asset purchases of €60 billion. These purchases have a favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households. They are intended to run until the end of September 2016, or beyond, if necessary, and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Let me now explain our assessment of the available information in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP in the euro area rose by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2015, which was somewhat lower than previously expected. The latest survey indicators point to a broadly similar pace of real GDP growth in the second half of this year. Overall, we expect the economic recovery to continue, albeit at a somewhat weaker pace than earlier expected, reflecting in particular the slowdown in emerging market economies, which is weighing on global growth and foreign demand for euro area exports. Domestic demand should be further supported by our monetary policy measures and their favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as by the progress made with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Moreover, the decline in oil prices should provide support for households’ real disposable income and corporate profitability and, therefore, private consumption and investment. However, economic growth in the euro area is likely to continue to be dampened by the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.

This assessment is also broadly reflected in the September 2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.4% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. Compared with the June 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down, primarily due to lower external demand owing to weaker growth in emerging markets.

The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside, reflecting in particular the heightened uncertainties related to the external environment. Notably, current developments in emerging market economies have the potential to further affect global growth adversely via trade and confidence effects.

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.2% in August 2015, unchanged from June and July. Compared with the previous month, this reflects a further decline in energy price inflation, compensated for by higher price increases for food and industrial goods. On the basis of the information available and current oil futures prices, annual HICP inflation rates will remain very low in the near term. Annual HICP inflation is expected to rise towards the end of the year, also on account of base effects associated with the fall in oil prices in late 2014. Inflation rates are foreseen to pick up further during 2016 and 2017, supported by the expected economic recovery, the pass-through of past declines in the euro exchange rate and the assumption of somewhat higher oil prices in the years ahead as currently reflected in oil futures markets. However, this increase in annual inflation rates is currently expected to materialise somewhat more slowly than anticipated thus far.

This assessment is also broadly reflected in the September 2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 0.1% in 2015, 1.1% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017. In comparison with the June 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised down, largely owing to lower oil prices. Taking into account the most recent developments in oil prices and recent exchange rates, there are downside risks to the September staff inflation projections.

In this context, the Governing Council will closely monitor the risks to the outlook for price developments over the medium term. We will focus in particular on the pass-through of our monetary policy measures, as well as on global economic, financial, commodity price and exchange rate developments.

Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm robust growth in broad money (M3). The annual growth rate of M3 was 5.3% in July 2015, compared with 4.9% in June. Annual growth in M3 continues to be increasingly supported by its most liquid components, with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 growing at an annual rate of 12.1% in July, compared with 11.7% in June.

Loan dynamics continued to improve. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) increased to 0.9% in July, up from 0.2% in June, continuing its gradual recovery since the beginning of 2014. Despite these improvements, the dynamics of loans to non-financial corporations remain subdued. They continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk, credit supply factors, and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) increased to 1.9% in July 2015, after 1.7% in June. Overall, the monetary policy measures we have put in place since June 2014 provide clear support for improvements both in borrowing conditions for firms and households and in credit flows across the euro area.

To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis indicates the need to firmly implement the Governing Council’s monetary policy decisions and to monitor closely all relevant incoming information as concerns their impact on the medium-term outlook for price stability.

Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance contributes to supporting economic activity. However, in order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute decisively. Given continued high structural unemployment and low potential output growth in the euro area, the ongoing cyclical recovery should be supported by effective structural policies. Further product and labour market reforms, and particularly actions to improve the business environment, including an adequate public infrastructure, are vital to increase productive investment, boost job creation and raise productivity. The swift and effective implementation of these reforms, in an environment of accommodative monetary policy, will not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes and accelerate the benefits of reforms, thereby making the euro area more resilient to global shocks. Fiscal policies should support the economic recovery while remaining in compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact. Full and consistent implementation of the Pact is crucial for confidence in our fiscal framework.

We are now at your disposal for questions.

Research & Investment | The illusion of unstoppable Chinese growth

The illusion of unstoppable Chinese growth

By Colin Twiggs
September 3rd, 2015 6:00 p.m. AEST (4:00 a.m. EDT)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

Throughout history, from Dutch tulips to South Sea investments, investors experiencing a bubble have refused to believe that it will end. Forecasters with the temerity to suggest otherwise were attacked and ridiculed. Denial is a powerful emotion.

The last three decades have been no different, as we moved through a succession of bubbles: from Japan in 1989/90, to the 1997/98 Asian crisis, to the Dotcom crash in 2000/01, and the GFC in 2007/08. All had the same primary cause: state interference with two major pricing mechanisms that allow markets to clear. Central bank suppression of interest rates fueled rapid debt growth and forced investors to assume greater risk in order to achieve a viable return, building huge imbalances within the economy. Suppression of exchange rates through accumulation of vast foreign reserves, primarily foreign debt, has also been used by emerging economies such as China to boost exports and maintain a current account surplus. But this ignores the inevitable feedback loop that results.

China’s and other emerging markets current account surpluses caused the US to suffer a persistent current account deficit.

US Current Account Deficit

The effect on the US is twofold. First, a persistent current account deficit hurts economic growth. Second, foreign purchases of US debt suppress long-term interest rates. Like most central banks, the Fed preferred to address the symptoms (falling growth and rising unemployment) rather than address the underlying cause (if your only tool is a hammer then every problem starts to resemble a nail). Fed suppression of interest rates created a wash of easy money looking for a return. A large chunk of this flowed into China and other emerging markets — primarily as credit to domestic borrowers — taking advantage of low interest rates in the US and higher yields in these rapidly growing economies, while enjoying the protection of a currency pegged to the Dollar.

Now that the Fed is making noises about raising interest rates, margins are likely to be squeezed and the currency peg appears vulnerable. Recent capital outflows forced China to devalue the Yuan. But devaluation is likely to fuel further outflows. Supporting the currency — purchasing Yuan using China’s more than $4 trillion of foreign reserves — may appear a simple solution but that contracts the amount of money in circulation, threatening deflation.

Attempts to stem the outgoing tide are likely to sap confidence and exacerbate the problem. China and other emerging markets can expect a hard landing. US and European markets survived the crises of 1989/90 and 1997/98 but global economies are now far more intertwined. I prefer to err on the side of caution.

North America

The S&P 500 respected the new resistance level at 2000, suggesting that the rally has failed. Wednesday’s blue harami candleoffers feint hope of a reversal, but the overriding trend is downward. Rising short sales warn of increased selling pressure. Recovery above 2000 is unlikely but would offer hope of a relieving rally. Breach of short-term support at 1900 would suggest another decline, while failure of 1870 would confirm.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to indicate elevated market risk.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a similar position to the S&P 500. Breach of support at 16000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Recovery above 17000 is less likely, but would signal buying pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Canada’s TSX 60 rallied above resistance at 800 but has since reversed. Follow-through below say 790 would confirm the primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a down-trend. Recovery above 820 is less likely but would indicate buying pressure.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 900 – 800 ) = 700

Europe

Germany’s DAX recovered above support at 10000. Follow-through above last week’s candle at 10500 would indicate a rally to test the descending trendline. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 10000 is less likely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

DAX

The Footsie is testing primary support at 6100. Reversal below that level would confirm a primary down-trend, while recovery above 6250 would indicate a rally to test 6500. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again indicates medium-term support.

FTSE 100

Asia

Chinese markets are closed Thursday and Friday for the World War II 70th Anniversary. The Shanghai Composite index is testing support at 3000. Intervention to support the market is unlikely to succeed. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would confirm a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gives a clearer picture of investor sentiment without government intervention. Breach of support at 22500 and declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) both signal a primary down-trend. Failure of the next level of support at 21000 further strengthens the signal.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 440 – ( 550 – 440 ) = 330

Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated below support at 19000 and is likely to test primary support at 17000. The gradual decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure — more a secondary correction than a primary reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 19000 – ( 21000 – 19000 ) = 17000

India’s Sensex retreated below 26000, confirming a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would further strengthen the signal.

SENSEX

* Target calculation: 27000 – ( 30000 – 27000 ) = 24000

Australia

The ASX 200 is testing key support at 5000. Respect of the zero line (from below) on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Breach of 5000 is likely and would confirm a primary down-trend. Respect is unlikely, but would indicate another test of medium-term resistance at 5300.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600

#China’s military parade, #Tesla’s delivery dates, boredom-detecting smartphones

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The European Central Bank meets. Analysts don’t expect the bank to tweak its interest rate, but it could change its inflation forecast. Discussions over China’s economic slump, and its effects on European markets, are also expected.

Twitter’s board discusses its next CEO. Three months since its previous chief quit, the social media company’s share price has dropped 22%, and many product heads have also resigned. Investors will want to hear what Twitter directors have planned.

The reviews come in for Samsung’s new smart watch. Media will review the world’s top phone maker’s new Gear S2 wearable at an event in Berlin.

Will Sweden cut its rate even more? In an effort to reach inflation targets despite lower commodities prices, Swedish central bankers might cut their main repurchase rate further into negative territory(paywall), after July’s cut left it at -0.35%.

While you were sleeping

China kicked off its lavish military parade. Over 10,000 troops, 200 aircraft, and a host of new missiles and weaponry are being paraded through the streets of Beijing to commemorate the end of World War Two—known in China as the War of Resistance Against Japan. In his opening speech, president Xi Jinping announced plans to cut 300,000 troops from the army, as part of a radical plan to modernize the force.

The IMF sounded the alarm over global growth. The forecast for worldwide economic growth could be cut significantly, the International Monetary Fund warned the G20. The IMF, which downgraded the same forecast in June, pushed the group to implement policies to boost growth, regardless of recent market volatility.

Tesla gave a date for its mass-market car. CEO Elon Musk announced in a tweet that the electric car company’s first $35,000 auto, the Model 3, will be available in two years, following an unveiling in March. Musk added that the affordability of the car relies on the completion of the company’s planned “gigafactory,” a Nevada battery-making plant.

Japan’s services sector unexpectedly grew. The Markit/Nikkei purchasing managers’ index for services came in at 53.7 in August, a big leap from 51.2 in July. That brought the composite—the combination of manufacturing and services—to 52.9, also higher than July and well over the 50 mark indicating expansion. That’s good news for an economy struggling to achieve its inflation goal.

Net-a-porter’s founder resigned. Natalie Massenet, the woman who invented luxury e-commerce as we know it, is leaving her company—and walking away with $150 million after selling her shares. Net-a-porter is about to merge with rival Yoox, and Massenet was set to become chairwoman of the new entity.

QUARTZ ANNOUNCEMENT

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Quartz obsession interlude

Svati Narula on why Nepal hasn’t spent any of its earthquake relief aid yet. “While nongovernmental organizations made immediate efforts to provide food, medical treatment, and tarps and tents for shelter after the 7.8-magnitude quake—which together with a 7.3-magnitude quake on May 12 left nearly 3 million people homeless in the Himalayan country—almost no one expected immediate help from the Nepalese government itself, including the people I spoke with in Kathmandu when I was there on May 3 and May 4.Read more here.

Matters of debate

Alibaba is a better indicator of China’s economic health than official GDP. And the picture isn’t pretty.

More Americans should take Donald Trump seriously. He is a dangerous brand of white nationalist, akin to France’s Marine Le Pen.

Forgiving abortions doesn’t mean the Vatican thinks it’s OK. The church still considers the act a grave sin.

Meat-eaters are better animal rights advocates. They are more relatable than vegans.

Hitchhiking is better than Uber. Social serendipity is too important to be left to massive corporations.

Surprising discoveries

Smartphones can be programmed to detect human boredom.When a user seems bored, the phone might offer up games or news articles.

A “travel jacket” is Kickstarter’s most-funded piece of clothing ever. It has 15 features, including an inflatable neck pillow.

Cannabis-infused wine is making a comeback. The drink was last popular among ancient religious sects.

You can Google “fun facts” and it will return a fun fact for you. Italso provides a link to the original content.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, cannabis wine, and travel jackets to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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Websim Focus sui Mercati Finanziari 03/09/2015 – WS

Ieri sera Wall Street ha chiuso in forte rialzo grazie soprattutto al sostegno dei tecnologici. Deboli i titoli legati al petrolio e all’oro: S&P500 +1,83%, Dow Jones +1,82%, NASDAQ +2,46%.

Beige Book. Il rapporto sull’andamento dell’economia americana pubblicato ieri sera non ha chiarito i dubbi sulle future mosse della Fed. Segnala che la difficoltà nel ritrovare determinate figure professionali ha determinato un “aumento delle pressioni sui salari” quest’estate. D’altra parte, il rallentamento della crescita in Asia minaccia le aziende americane.

A questo punto, occorre aspettare il rapporto sull’occupazione di agosto che verrà diffuso venerdì per capire se la Fed alzerà i tassi di interesse per la prima volta dal 2006 già nella riunione del 16/17 settembre, come atteso da molti economisti.

Asia. Stamattina mancano le indicazioni delle borse cinesi, Hong Kong e Shanghai sono chiuse per festività. Nikkei +0,5%, Corea del Sud -0,3%, India +0,9%.

I future sulle Borse europee anticipano un avvio in rialzo dello 0,7% circa.

BCE. Oggi è in agenda il board e Mario Draghi si troverà sul tavolo gli argomenti scottanti della crisi cinese, della caduta delle materie prime e del crollo delle valute emergenti. Marginale la questione delle elezioni in Grecia. A nostro giudizio dovrebbe prendere atto del fatto che non ci sono pressioni inflazionistiche, anzi sono aumentati i rischi di deflazione.

Analisi tecnica borse. Nel breve prevale ancora un clima di alta tensione e di conseguenza di alta volatilità. Serenamente, segnaliamo che a Wall Street il NASDAQ (4.750) ha ripreso alla grande la trendline rialzista di lungo periodo (4.530), mentre l’S&P500 (1.950) si è riportato a ridosso delle soglie critiche (1.960). Ancora lontano il Dow Jones (16.350) che deve tornare sopra quota 17mila. In Europa la situazione sul Dax di Francoforte (10.048) si rasserena sopra 10.080.

FtseMib (21.612, +0,75%). Consolida sopra la trendline di lungo periodo passante per 20.938 punti, livello da monitorare. Prime serie resistenze a 22.270. Quadro di fondo positivo e straordinaria forza relativa.

Variabili macro

Petrolio. Il petrolio è rimbalzato del 2% malgrado dati sulle scorte USA molto sopra le attese. Brent 50,50 usd, Wti 46 sd. Il quadro resta volatile, ma pensiamo che ogni discesa verso 45 e 40 usd rispettivamente sia da sfruttare per acquisti di lungo periodo.

Oro (1.132 usd). Prezzi in discesa. Non vediamo segnali in grado di solleticare un’operatività di lungo periodo né tanto meno un’operatività speculativa. Ostacoli già tra 1.160 e 1.200 usd ci tengono lontani dagli acquisti.

Forex

Valute emergenti. La situazione è ancora tesa. Anche ieri il Real brasiliano è scivolato su nuovi minimi di periodo (dal 2000) contro dollaro. Le altre valute si avvicinano ai recenti minimi senza però superarli. Finchè non tornerà la calma è difficile pensare a una ripresa delle borse emergenti che continuano a vedere la fuga dei capitali.

Euro/Dollaro (1,123). Apertura in leggera ripresa per il dollaro. Probabilmente qualche investitore prende posizione in vista della Fed. I livelli da monitorare sono sempre gli estremi del range 1,05-1,15. Teniamo le posizioni in dollari.

Bond

Bund tedesco. Nulla di nuovo da segnalare. Prezzi tranquilli e rendimento a 0,78%. Tra 0,50% e 1% preferiamo non intervenire. Compreremo sopra l’1% e venderemo sotto lo 0,5%.

Italia. Lo spread apre poco mosso a 119 con un rendimento del Btp 10 anni a 1,98%. La totale assenza di inflazione in Eurozona depone a favore di un ulteriore ribasso dei rendimenti. Se ci sarà qualche turbolenza, sfrutteremo fiammate sopra il 2%, meglio se verso il 2,4%, per comprare. Puntiamo ancora a uno spread di 80-50 punti base per fine anno.

http://www.websim.it

MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi mercoledì 2 settembre 02/09/2015 – RSF

DATI ITALIA – Decisamente confortanti i numeri Istat di ieri su mercato del lavoro e Pil, che avvicinano l’obiettivo di 0,7% per la media d’anno con una ‘crescita acquisita’ già pari a 0,6%. In un’intervisata al Corriere della Sera, Giuliano Poletti ricorda che la riforma delle pensioni non è a costo zero, che oltre a licenziare i quattro decreti delegati del Jobs Act occorrerà reintrodurre un certo grado di flessibilità senza però tornare alle regole precedenti la legge Fornero. Presto, aggiunge il ministro, sulla statistica relativa agli occupati si arriverà a un unico dato tra ministero, Istat e Inps.

CINA – Dopo aver spiegato ieri che il rallentamento dell’economia non è né brusco né inatteso, dal momento che Pechino sista semplicemente adattando ad un nuovo modello di sviluppo, la guida del Fmi Christine Lagarde potrebbe offrire nuovi spunti in un intervento a Giacarta, dove terminerà la visita in Indonesia. Ieri a destare nuove preoccupazioni per gli operatorimondiali sono stati i numeri giunti da Pechino sui Pmi, che hanno evidenziato la contrazione del settore industriale e il rallentamento di quello dei servizi, alimentando i timori di una sensibile frenata dell’economia.

BTP E PRIMARIOEUROPEO – Nuova seduta in territorio negativo per l’obbligazionario italiano ieri, complice l’avversione per il rischio maturata sui timori per la situazione cinese e sul quadro non particolarmente entusiasmante emerso dagli analoghi indici delleprincipali economie della zona euro (news). Ripartirà da 119 punti base il differenziale di rendimento tra Btp e Bund e da 1,99% il tasso del decennale italiano che ieri ha brevemente sforato quota 2%, come già visto la settimana scorsa. Dasegnalare poi, sul fronte primario, l’asta tedesca che vedrà Berlino collocare 4 miliardi in titoli di Stato a 5 anni e la Grecia che offrirà 875 milioni a 26 settimane. Il mese scorso Atene si è rifinanziata sul mercato dei capitali raccogliendo gli813 milioni di euro in titoli del Tesoro a sei mesi.

ZONA EURO – Dopo il quadro misto offerto dai numeri del Pmi manifatturiero e alla viglia del meeting della Bce, in arrivo in mattinata da Eurostat il dato relativo ai prezzi allaproduzione di luglio. L’attesa è per un calo di 0,1% a livello congiunturale (invariato rispetto a giugno) e per una flessione di 2,1% a livello annuo dopo il -2,2% del mese precedente.

DATI USA – Contrastante la lettura offerta ieri dal Pmi manifattura (attestatosi ad agosto a 53,0 da 52,9 preliminare) e dall’indice Ism manifatturiero (che ha rallentato ai minimi di oltre due anni). Nuovi spunti per meglio definire le tempistiche dell’atteso rialzo dei tassi di interesse potrebberogiungere dal dato Adp sugli occupati del settore privato, tradizionale anticipatore del dato ufficiale sui ‘payroll’ in arrivo venerdì. L’attesa è per 201.000.

FOREX – Dollaro in leggera risalita contro yen sul finale della seduta asiaticagrazie al modesto recupero del Nikkei giapponese, reduce dal crollo di quasi 4% di lunedì. Sullo sfondo, ancora non si placano i timori sulla congiuntura cinese. Soffrono il dollaro australiano e quello neozelandese, valute più sensibili all’andamento delle materie prime, mentre tornano a correggere i corsi del greggio. Intorno alle 7,30 euro/dollaro <EUR=> a 1,1276/78 da 1,1317 ieri sera in chiusura a New York, dollaro/yen <JPY=> a 120,15/17 da 119,36 ed euro/yen <EURJPY=> 130,50/55 da 135,03.

GREGGIO – Prezzi in netto ribasso per i derivati sul greggio, che tornano ad arretrare di oltre 2% sulla scia del nuovo aumento delle scorte Usa e degli ultimi dati macro che fotografano le difficoltà del manifatturiero statunitense. Intorno alle 7,30 il futures Brent ottobre <LCOc1> cede 2,18% (un dollaro e 7 centesimi) a 48,48 dollari il barile, e l’analogo contratto Nymex <CLc1> il 2,47% (1,11 dollari) a 44,29 dollari.

TREASURIES – Governativi Usa in leggero rialzosul finale degli scambi asiatici, dove il decennale di riferimento <US10YT=TWEB> guadagna 5/32 a 98*20 e rende 2,154%.

DATI MACROECONOMICI
GRAN BRETAGNA
Markit/Cips, Pmi consumatori agosto (10,30) – attesa 57,5.

ZONA EURO
Prezzi alla produzione luglio (11,00) – attesa -0,1% m/m; -2,1% a/a.

USA
Adp, occupati settore privato agosto (14,15) – attesa 201.000.

Revisione costo del lavoro 2° trimestre (14,30) – attesa -1,0%.

Revisioneproduttività 2° trimestre (14,30) – attesa 2,8%.

Indice Ism New York agosto (15,45).

Ordini all’industria luglio (16,00) – attesa 0,9% m/m.

Revisione ordini beni durevoli luglio (16,00).

Eia, scorte settimanali prodotti petroliferi(16,30).

ASTE DI TITOLI DI STATO
EUROPA
Germania, Tesoro offre 4 miliardi titoli di Stato a 5 anni.

Grecia, Tesoro offre 875 milioni titoli di Stato a 26 settimane.

BANCHE CENTRALI
EUROPA
Svezia, Riksbankinizia riunione di politica monetaria; termina il 3 settembre.

USA
Fed pubblica Beige Book (20,00).

APPUNTAMENTI
ITALIA
Roma, Consiglio amministrazione Rai.

EUROPA
Bruxelles, riunione collegiocommissari Ue.

ASIA
Giacarta, Lagarde termina visita; interviene a convegno su “Future of Asian financing”; partecipa vice governatore Bank of Japan Nakaso.

Websim Focus sui Mercati Finanziari 02/09/2015 – WS

Ieri sera Wall Street ha chiuso in pesante calo, condizionata dal deludente dato sull’attività manifatturiera cinese emerso in mattinata. L’S&P500 (-2,96%) ha esteso la perdita accumulata nel mese di agosto (-6,6%). Soltanto tre azioni delle 500 che lo compongono hanno chiuso in positivo. Ciò spiega meglio di ogni altro concetto che le vendite hanno colpito indistintamente tutti i settori. Dow Jones -2,84%, NASDAQ -2,94%.

Oggi gli occhi saranno puntati sul Beige Book, il rapporto sull’andamento dell’economia americana che verrà pubblicato alle 20:00 ora italiana, e sul dato relativo alle scorte settimanale di prodotti petroliferi rilasciate dalla EIA alle 16:30.

Ieri sera il petrolio ha perso l’8%, annullando i progressi del giorno precedente. I timori di una frenata della domanda cinese hanno più che compensato le attese positive di un intervento dell’Opec per arginare la caduta del prezzo.

Asia. Le borse cinesi si muovono contrastate. L’indice CSI 300 di Shanghai-Shenzhen ha aperto in ribasso del 4% per poi recuperare, in questo momento perde circa mezzo punto. Nikkei giapponese -0,4%, ieri ha terminato in flessione del 2,7%. Hong Kong -0,2%, Corea del Sud +0,3%, India +0,5%.

I future sulle Borse europee anticipano un avvio in rialzo dello 0,4% circa. Ieri tutti i listini principali del Vecchio Continente hanno registrato perdite superiori al 2%.

Analisi tecnica borse. Tensione e volatilità vanno di pari passo. Senza farci coinvolgere troppo dall’emotività segnaliamo che i tre indici principali di Wall Street hanno perso di nuovo la trendline rialzista di lungo periodo aprendo a una fase di incertezza sulla loro evoluzione. Ribadiamo che, paradossalmente, la Borsa cinese si muove ancora saldamente sopra questo delicato livello come quella giapponese. In Europa la situazione è variegata: Parigi e Francoforte si sono praticamente appoggiate alla trendline rialzista. Madrid l’ha ceduta da un pezzo, mentre, udite udite, Milano è la piazza messa meglio.

FtseMib (21.450, -2,24%). La trendline di lungo periodo passa verso 20.938 punti, questo è il primo livello da monitorare. Prime serie resistenze a 22.270. Quadro di fondo positivo.

Variabili macro

Petrolio. Il Brent perde un altro 1,8% in avvio a 48,6 usd. Wti americano a 44,4 usd. A rischio il recente segnale di forza nel trend di breve osservato con il ritorno sopra 45 e 40 usd rispettivamente. Per ora ci limitiamo a seguire la situazione, mantenendo gli acquisti e approfittiamo di eventuali correzioni per accumulare.

Oro (1.141 usd). Prezzi fermi. Malgrado la crescente turbolenza il prezzo non si muove più di tanto. Ostacoli già tra 1.160 e 1.200 usd ci tengono lontani dagli acquisti.

Forex

Valute emergenti. La situazione è ancora tesa. Per esempio il Real brasiliano è scivolato su nuovi minimi di periodo contro dollaro. Le altre valute si avvicinano ai recenti minimi senza però superarli.

Euro/Dollaro (1,128). Apertura tranquilla in attesa delle mosse della Fed sempre meno prevedibili. C’è chi spinge per un rialzo a settembre, c’è chi spinge per lasciare tutto così com’è. In ogni caso si è allontanato il rischio di una caduta del dollaro. Pensiamo che il range 1,05-1,15 possa prevalere ancora nei prossimi mesi. Teniamo le posizioni in dollari.

Bond

Bund tedesco. Nel clima di incertezza generale gli acquisti difensivi non abbandonano il governativo tedesco anche se il rendimento (0,81%) non è spettacolare. Tra 0,50% e 1% preferiamo non intervenire. Compreremo sopra l’1% e venderemo sotto lo 0,5%.

Italia. Lo spread apre poco mosso a 118 con un rendimento del Btp 10 anni a 1,99%. Puntiamo ancora a uno spread di 80-50 punti base per fine anno che equivale a un rendimento intorno all’1,6%. Ci prepariamo a comprare con un rendimento sopra il 2%, l’area migliore per intervenire è sui livelli di giugno/luglio intorno al 2,4%.

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