3 Reasons for the Bounce

A trifecta of good economic news Wednesday helped to extend the bounce for US stocks.

1)  ADP Employment came in at 237,000 jobs added versus 220K estimate and 203K last month. This bodes well for what the Government Employment Situation report will show on Thursday.

2)  Construction Spending topped estimates at +0.8% versus the 0.5% expected.

3)  ISM Manufacturing also on the rise from 52.8 to 53.5. Even better is the forward looking New Orders component all the way up to 56.0. Indeed manufacturing is snapping back from a recent lull.

Yes, debt issues in Greece, and now Puerto Rico, may cast a pall over these positives now and again. But when the haze of their virtual insignificance is better realized, then most investors will cling to the positives found in these reports compelling them to bid up stock prices.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Quartz Daily Brief—Greek banks reopen, Xaomi’s sales boost, Facebook eyes YouTube, junk food ratings

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The US jobs report leads into a holiday weekend. Analysts expect that the Labor Department’s monthly figures, out a day early due to the country’s Independence Day holiday, will show a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate in June to 5.4%, and the addition of 230,000 jobs(paywall).

Greek banks reopen for pensioners. 850 of the country’s bank branches will reopen to pay out pensions after they all closed due to panic sparked by the country’s deepening debt crisis.

Libya toils over its protracted conflict. Abdullah al-Thinni, the internationally-recognized Libyan prime minister, meets with his opponents in Malta during UN-sponsored peace talks. He says he hopes to reach a power-sharing agreement with the armed alliance that took over the western part of the country last year.

The Iran nuclear talks drag on. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, will meet with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani to help reach an accord between Iran and six global powers, after negotiators extended their June 30 deadline by one week.

While you were sleeping

Xiaomi announced a major sales boost. The Chinese smartphone maker sold 34.7 million handsets in the first half of 2015, up 33% from a year earlier. The high-spec, low-cost handsets have faced a challenge from Apple at home, but its recent international expansion is expected to help Xiaomi maintain growth.

Facebook followed in YouTube’s footsteps. The social network said it will share revenue from ads sold alongside videos posted to its website, and offered companies including the NBA and Fox Sports initial deals. The offer replicates the model that made YouTube so successful, by offering 55% of revenue to the content owner, and keeping 45%.

The US investigated airlines for potential collusion. The Department of Justice is investigating whether airlines shared information about expansion to maintain higher prices. From 2010 to 2014, domestic flight capacity remained flat, despite healthy economic growth.

Ukraine made progress in bailout talks. Finance minister Natalie Jaresko agreed to private discussions with the country’s creditors, following two months of public quarreling. Ukraine has $19 billion of debt, which it threatened to stop servicing unless creditors agreed to a write down.

US authorities stepped in on an appliance merger. The Department of Justice sued to block Sweden-based Electrolux’s proposed $3.3 billion buyout of General Electric’s appliance business, citing antitrust issues. The deal would give Electrolux a 40% share of the US appliance market.

The US and Cuba restored diplomatic ties after 54 years. US president Barack Obama announced that the US and Cuba will open embassies in their respective countries later this month. Some issues remain though; Cuba wants the port of Guantanamo Bay back, and a US trade embargo lifted.

Quartz obsession interlude

Dan Frommer on Apple’s new music streaming service. “What makes Apple Music interesting is the ‘humanities’ aspect. And the best, most memorable example so far is Apple’s experiment with radio. In the age of sterile, algorithmic automation, Apple has launched a high-profile, global radio station—Beats 1—powered by humans with personalities, led by former BBC jock Zane Lowe.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

We should use a single global currency. Taking away the power of countries to devalue their currency could make them more responsible.

Removing the Confederate flag is meaningless if black churches are burning. Taking away a symbol doesn’t protect people from violence.

Addiction is not a disease. And maintaining that it is could be harmful.

Airheads and Lunchables are the worst-tasting foods in the world.An Italian tastes and promptly rejects American junk food.

Greece is a “demerging economy.” With its entry into the EU, the country emerged from a poor dictatorship but it’s been downhill since then.

Surprising discoveries

Mark Zuckerberg’s dream is for Facebook to read and send your thoughts. Facebook’s mysterious algorithms are laying the groundwork.

A robot killed a Volkswagen worker in Germany. The company said the incident was not due to a technical defect.

Donald Trump is going strong in presidential polls. Thanks to old and conservative Americans.

There are shockingly few impact craters on the surface of the Earth. The planet has 126 of them, which pales in comparison to other bodies in our solar system.

Eye color could be linked to alcohol dependence. People with blue eyes may be particularly vulnerable.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, crater sightings, and Facebook-transmitted thoughts tohi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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When You “Assume”…

US stocks had a solid bounce on Tuesday. Yet don’t assume that we have seen the last of the recent red arrows.

We are just too close to the 200 day moving average (2054) not to test that important level. Remember the last test was way back in October 2014. So it would seem high time to do it again.

My guess is it would be a short lived test…perhaps even just a sharp intraday move that is thwarted before the close. Of course it could be a longer bout, yet with the same positive conclusion in the end.

There is no logical reason to believe that the current bull market is over. Thus, each of these dips is a buying opportunity. Be sure to take advantage of it if you have not already.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Quartz Daily Brief—#Greece defaults, #China’s tightening grip, smartphone tipping points, deadly asteroids

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Dilma Rousseff visits Google. The Brazilian president’s US visit is part of an effort to reboot relations and provide a much-needed boost to Brazil’s economy—and to Dilma’s approval ratings. She will also visit a NASA research center and have lunch with Silicon Valley executives.

The US Export-Import Bank halts lending. Congress left for recess without re-authorizing its activities, among them issuing loans for foreign customers of US businesses. Conservatives consider it a win, despite objections from corporate giants like GE and Boeing.

General Mills reports its earnings. The food giant announces its fourth-quarter results as it restructures, cuts costs, and eliminates more than 700 jobs. Other companies opening their books include spice maker McCormick and liquor company Constellation Brands.

Jupiter and Venus “collide” in the night sky. The planetary conjunction of the two distant neighbors will be easily visible with the naked eye. The planets will pass within a third of a degree of each other from the perspective of earthbound observers.

While you were sleeping

Greece defaulted. The country missed a €1.7 billion ($1.9 billion) payment due to the International Monetary Fund after it failed to secure extra bailout cash. That makes an exit from from the euro zone more likely, but not guaranteed. The nation has applied for a loan extension, and a referendum later this week could lead to it unlocking more bailout funds.

China’s manufacturing sector failed to grow. The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 49.4 in June, from 49.2 in May, missing expectations and falling short of the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Beijing’s official PMI for the month came in at 50.2, indicating slight growth. The statistics bureau pointed to weak demand for goods.

Japanese manufacturers took a turn for the better. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly survey of large manufacturers unexpectedly rose in June, and showed that businesses plan to increase their spending from next year. That’s good news for the bank, which is trying to raise inflation to meet the government’s target of 2%.

China passed a far-reaching national security law. The legislationdefines national security in such a way that it includes politics, culture, the environment, and technology. China often cites national security issues when jailing outspoken individuals; the new law could make it even easier for Beijing to silence a greater number of people.

Australia developed a two-tier property market. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne shot up 16.2% and 10.2% respectively in June from a year earlier, on the back of record-low borrowing costs. But house prices elsewhere rose just 5%, prompting concerns that efforts to prop up the economy are creating property bubbles in Australia’s biggest cities.

More than 1,000 prisoners escaped from a Yemen prison. The jailbreak occurred amid heavy clashes between Houthi rebels and their opponents, though a Yemeni news agency claims the prison also came under attack from al-Qaeda. The escaped prisoners include numerous al-Qaeda suspects.

The death toll from an Indonesian plane crash rose to 141. None of the 122 people on board a military transport flight survived after it hit a residential neighborhood on Tuesday, killing at least 19 on the ground, the military has said. The plane was reportedly carrying paying passengers, which is not allowed, and there has been confusion surrounding who was on board.

Quartz obsession interlude

Jason Karaian charts the smartphone tipping point. “As smartphones become increasingly affordable and desirable, the holdouts are trading up and first-time buyers are opting for full-featured models. In a recent report, PricewaterhouseCoopers reckons that by 2019 a majority of active mobile connections in the world will be on smartphones.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

iTunes is a hateful piece of bloatware. And Apple probably agrees.

Buying in bulk creates more waste. Go to the grocery store more frequently instead of stocking up.

If inequality is a disease, voter turnout is the cure. Poor non-voters in the US overwhelmingly favor progressive policies.

Greece will vote “yes” to Europe. The alternative is just too ugly to face.

Surprising discoveries

A painting of the Virgin Mary made from elephant dung sold for $4.6 million. The work angered Rudy Giuliani when he was New York’s mayor.

The likelihood of dying from an asteroid strike is similar to that of dying in an airplane crash. On World Asteroid Day, we should recognize that protecting the earth from giant rocks benefits us all.

Female serial killers are serial monogamists. They are also more likely to kill family members than complete strangers.

Some museums preserve tattooed skin. It’s an art that dates back centuries.

The US could soon have more Spanish speakers than any other country. It’s already the second-largest Spanish-speaking countrybehind Mexico.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, iTunes replacements, and dung-based art to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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Don’t Make Me Laugh

I find the decline of US stocks Monday to be laughable with a strong bounce soon to follow.

Why?

Because Greece is a false boogeyman for the US investor as it has virtually nothing to do with the health of our economy or corporate earnings and thus should have no ill effect on stock prices.

But Reity, if that is the case, then why did stocks tumble on Monday?

It is healthy for markets to correct in order to wring out excesses and investor complacency. So even though this was not the most logical catalyst for this cleansing process, it will serve that end just the same.

When investors soon wake to the reality that Greece has nothing to with their US stock investment decisions, then the market will rebound mightily. It also helps that the strong support of the 200 day moving average is just below the Monday close at 2053.

Best,

aka Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

Quartz Daily Brief—#Greece on the rocks, #biotech megabucks, leap seconds, #Walmart’s ISIL cake

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Greece’s bailout deal expires. The country has already defaulted on its International Monetary Fund debt, and banks are closed at least until the July 5 referendum on whether to accept creditors’ conditions for another tranche of bail-out loans. The fate of the country’s economy matters far beyond its borders, as people begin to ask: Is Greece the problem, or is it the European Union?

Ukraine meets with its creditors. The International Monetary Fund joins the country’s envoy and creditors in Washington, DC. Ukraine has warned that it may suspend payments unless it can reach a deal to restructure its $23 billion debt.

An Iran deadline comes and goes. Negotiators, including US secretary of state John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, will probably continue talks over Iran’s nuclear program in Vienna despite missing a June 30 deadline for a comprehensive agreement.

Apple Music presses play. The iPhone maker’s streaming music service is debuting with a roster of 30 million songs, including Taylor Swift’s 1989 album. After a three-month trial period, Apple Music will cost $9.99 a month.

Uber offers free rides to a protest. The company is fighting a New York City council bill that would limit the number of livery cab driverswho work for Uber and other services. Proponents of the measure say that a surge in car-service drivers has made the city’s traffic much worse.

While you were sleeping

US stock markets took a wobble over Greece. The US benchmark S&P 500 Index fell 2.5%, and the Dow Jones gave up all of its gains for 2015, as investors grew increasingly nervous about fallout from the Greek financial crisis and China’s own stock market plunge.

Celgene invested $1 billion in a biotech partnership. The cell therapy giant’s 10-year tie-up with Juno Therapeutics will aim to harness the immune system to fight autoimmune diseases and cancer. The deal comes amid industry excitement over biotech solutions. Juno’s shares 40% higher in after-hours trading.

UK consumer confidence reached a 15-year high. The GfK surveyjumped to +7 in June, from +1 in May, its biggest rise in over 12 months on consumers’ positive outlook for the year ahead. That suggests the British economy is picking up following a slow first half.

Microsoft quit the display-ad business. The computing giant’s ad unit will be handed over to AOL and AppNexus, for an unknown sum,according to Bloomberg. Its 1,200 jobs will be sent to AOL or other areas of Microsoft, or cut. The move is in line with CEO Satya Nadella’s streamlining of the company to focus on key areas.

Japanese wages entered a third year of declines. Real earningsfell 0.1% in May from a year earlier, their 25th consecutive fall and short of analyst expectations of a 0.2% increase. But recent data showing an increase in job openings and low unemployment suggests the declinemay soon be reversed (paywall).

Two more companies severed ties with Donald Trump. US broadcaster NBC said it is “ending its business relationship” with the billionaire presidential candidate because of his recent derogatory comments about Mexican immigrants. Mexico’s Ora TV, founded by Carlos Slim, also canceled a joint TV project after calling Trump’s comments racist, and Trump close-minded.

Quartz obsession interlude

David Yanofsky on the origin of leap seconds. “Notionally, it’s a way to unify all our ways of measuring time. In reality, it’s just an attempt to preserve an old definition of time that has long since been superseded by newer methods. In the process, the leap second—through no fault of its own—puts at risk countless critical computer systems around the world.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Why I’m leaving London for LA. The city’s liveability is declining, in favor of soulless homes-as-investments.

Saying “Silicon Valley has a diversity problem” means nothing.That is, unless you understand the specific details of the problem.

The US should legalize polygamy. It’s the natural next step after gay marriage.

It’s time to disrupt philanthropy. And young tech barons are the ones to do it.

The humanities are more important than ever. They can save us from ourselves in the digital age.

Surprising discoveries

The world’s most populous vertebrate is a glow-in-the-dark hermaphrodite fish. There are quadrillions of bristlemouth in the sea.

Left-handed tennis players have lost their competitive advantage. Rafael Nadal is the only “leftie” in the sport’s top ranks.

An Indian minister claimed that drinking liquor is a “fundamental right.” Especially when alcohol taxes make up 20% of government revenue.

Walmart made a cake bearing the ISIL flag. A customer requested it after the store refused to make a Confederate flag cake.

The New York prison escapees may have used pepper to throw police dogs off their scent. The trick was used in the film Cool Hand Luke.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Indian whiskey, and bristlemouth recipes to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi martedì 30 giugno 30/06/2015 – RSF

GRECIA – Atene non rimborserà oggi gli 1,6 miliardi di euro dovuti al Fondo monetario internazionale. Secondo fonti Ue e greche, Juncker avrebbe presentato un’ultima offerta di salvataggio ad Atene, con l’ammorbidimento di alcune clausole e l’impegno dei partner a valutare a ottobre un allungamento delle scadenze e la riduzione dei tassi sui prestiti, estendendo la moratoria sugli interessi. In cambio viene chiesto a Tsipras di appoggiare il sì al referendum, accettando entro oggi la proposta per iscritto. Ma il premier greco lascia poco spazio a ipotesi di passi indietro e in un’intervista tv ieri sera, mentre per le strade di Atene decine di migliaia di persone manifestavano contro l’accordo dei creditori, ieri ha fatto capirese dovessero vincere il sì rassegnerebbe le dimissioni. Intanto, in un’intervista a Les Echoes, il consigliere esecutivo Bce Coeuré ha definito possibile l’uscita di Atene della zona euro, sebbene questa non sia la volontà dalle istituzioni Ue. La probabilità che questo succeda secondo S&P, che ha tagliato il rating greco a ‘CCC-‘ da ‘CCC’, è ora di circa il 50%. La scure delle agenzie di rating si è abbattuta sulle banche greche, che saranno chiuse fino a dopo il voto del 5 luglio: Fitch ha declassato gli istituti principali dopo l’introduzione dei controlli sui capitali.

RENZI – In un’intervista al Sole, Renzi assicura che l’Italia è al riparo dalle conseguenze di un’evoluzione traumatica della crisi greca, grazieall’ombrello della Bce, all’avvio delle riforme strutturali e al ritorno della crescita dell’economia. Renzi definisce l’interruzione dei negoziati una scelta del governo greco, che non ha voluto rispettare le regole. Secondo il premier, Juncker hasbagliato ad esporsi per il sì, facendo il gioco di Tsipras. Non si tratta di un referendum tra Merkel e Tsipras, dice Renzi, ma di un ballottaggio tra euro e dracma. “Se vincono i no, a mio giudizio, la Grecia va verso l’abbandono dell’euro”,aggiunge. Sui temi interni, Renzi assicura che le clausole di salvaguardia da 20 miliardi nella prossima manovra non scatteranno anche se trovare le risorse non sarà semplice. Infine, Renzi rivendica la scelte fatte nel ricambio dei vertici di Cdp,ufficializzando la nomina di Gallia, oltre a quella di Costamagna, e afferma che la missione dell’istituto non cambia.

MERCATI – La crisi greca è destinata a restare il tema dominnante dei mercati. Ieri Piazza Affari ha lasciato sul terreno oltre 5%, mentre mel caso del secondario un arretramento di oltre quattro figure ha visto il Btp di riferimento a trent’anni e quasi due punti ha perso il decennale, con un rendimento in salita a 2,376% e lo spread su Bund a 159 puti base dai124 di venerdì sera.

PRIMARIO – Ampiamente scontato un marcato rialzo dei rendimenti in occasione dell’asta a medio-lungo termine, in cui il ministero dell’Economia mette a disposizione degli investitori tra 5 e 7 miliardi di euro in Btp a5 e 10 anni, oltre alla riapertura del Ccteu 15 giugno 2022. Ieri sera sul secondario, in base a dati TradeWeb, il cinque anni maggio 2020 pagava infatti 1,279% da 0,85% dell’asta di fine maggio, mentre il rendimento del decennale era indicato a2,376% da 1,83% del mese scorso. Il livello espresso dal mercato, in cui i prezzi sono naturalmente indicati al valore netto, mentre nell’asta di stamane occorre tener conto delle commissioni, mostra il rendimento del decennale al massimo da ottobre e quello del cinque anni addirittura da giugno 2014.

DATI ITALIA – Ricca di spunti l’agenda macro sul fronte interno: si parte alle 10 con il tasso di disoccupazione di maggio per proseguire alle 11 con l’inflazione preliminare di giugno. Dopo il 12,4% di aprile, la mediana delle attese raccolte da Reuters proietta la percentuale dei senza lavoro del mese scorso in calo di un decimo a 12,3%. Quanto ai prezzi al consumo di giugno, il consensus è di un incremento mensile pari a,1% sia per l’indice Nic sia per quello armonizzato, che su base annua dovrebbero attestarsi rispettivamente a 0,1% e 0,2%. Il mese scorso la crescita era stata pari a 0,1% sia su mese sia su anno nel caso dell’indice nazionale e 0,2% perl’armonizzato. nel pomeriggio la nota mensile Istat. Nell’analogo comunicato di fine maggio, in cui l’istituto di statistica faceva il punto sullo stato di salute dell’economia, si faceva riferimento a una stima di 0,2% per la crescita del secondotrimestre e a uno 0,4% ‘acquisito’ per l’intero 2015. Sempre nel pomeriggio verrà diffuso il bollettino statistico trimestrale della Banca d’Italia.

DATI ZONA EURO – Da Eurostat alle 11 la stima flash sui prezzi al consumo di giugno, conattese che convergono su un tasso annuo in crescita di 0,2% dopo lo 0,3% di maggio. Restando in tema di inflazione, una doccia fredda è arrivata dai numeri tedeschi di ieri, sempre relativi a giugno, ampiamente inferiori alle aspettative dei mercatifinanziari e anni luce dall’obiettivo Bce.

GREGGIO – Le quotazioni petrolifere restano sui minimi da tre settimane, appesantite dai timori legati alla Grecia, avviandosi così verso il secondo calo mensile consecutivo. Alle 7,30 italiane ilfutures Brent <LCOc1> scambia a 62,07 dollari il barile (in rialzo di 6 centesimi); il Nymex <CLc1> a 58,25 dollari (in calo di 8 centesimi).

FOREX – Negli ultimi scambi sulle piazze asiatiche la valuta unica cede sul dollaro e lo yen,appesantita dall’evoluzione della crisi greca. Il cambio euro/dollaro <EUR=> tratta a 1,1194 da 1,1235 dell’ultima chiusura; dollaro/yen <JPY=> a 122,28 da 122,53; euro/yen <EURJPY=> a 136,85 da 137,68.

TREASURIES – Chiusura in rialzo per igovernativi Usa, che beneficiano del clima di avversione al rischio alla luce in attesa di sviluppi della crisi greca. Il benchmark decennale Usa <US10YT=RR> ha chiuso in rialzo di 1-7/32, rendimento a 2,333%.

DATI MACROECONOMICI ITALIA
Istat pubblica nota mensile.

Istat, stima occupati e disoccupati maggio (10,00).

Istat, stima prezzi al consumo giugno (11,00).

Istat, prezzi alla produzione dell’industria maggio (12,00).

FRANCIA
Spese perconsumi maggio (8,45).

Prezzi alla produzione maggio (8,45).

GERMANIA
Vendite al dettaglio maggio (8,00).

Disoccupati giugno (9,55).

GRAN BRETAGNA
Pil 1° trimestre (10,30).

Partite correnti 1° trimestre(10,30).

GRECIA
Prezzi alla produzione maggio (11,00).

Vendite al dettaglio aprile (11,00).

SPAGNA
Partite correnti aprile (10,00).

ZONA EURO
Stima flash inflazione giugno (11,00).

Disoccupatimaggio (11,00).

USA
Indice prezzi case CaseShiller aprile (15,00).

Pmi Chicago giugno (15,45).

Fiducia consumatori giugno (16,00).

ASTE DI TITOLI DI STATO
ITALIA
Tesoro offre 2-2,5 miliardi settimatranche Ccteu scadenza 15/6/2022; 1-1,5 miliardi quinta tranche Btp a 5 anni scandenza 1/5/2020, cedola 0,70%; 2-3 miliardi nona tranche Btp a 10 anni scadenza 1/6/2025, cedola 1,50%.

BANCHE CENTRALI
ITALIA
Banca d’Italia pubblicaBollettino Statistico trimestrale.

EUROPA
Zona euro, a Vienna intervento di Nowotny (15,00).

Zona euro, vicepresidente Bundesbank Buch partecipa a conferenzastampa comitato stabilità finanziaria (14,00).

AUSTRALIA Londra, intervento governatore banca centrale australiana Glenn Stevens (10,40).

APPUNTAMENTI
ITALIA
Roma, Autorità energia comunica tariffe di luce e gas in vigore dall’1 luglio 2015.

Roma, Padoan interviene a convegno suUnione bancaria (9,00).

Roma, Premio Montecitorio “Guglielmo Negri”, presentazione del libro di Giorgio La Malfa “Cuccia e il segreto di Mediobanca” con Patuelli (17,30).

Milano, Forum “Food & Made in Italy” con Calenda, Vincenzo Cremonini, Gallia, Kunze-Concewitz, Moncalvo, Sposito (dalle 8,30).

Milano, convegno in Bocconi su “Il futuro delle banche popolari dopo la riforma: le sfide del mercatoe della normativa” con Giorgio Gobbi di Banca d’Italia, Castagna, Saviotti, Vandelli (9,30).

EUROPA
Grecia, atteso pagamento a Fmi per 1,6 miliardi euro in unica soluzione.

Grecia, borsa e banche chiuse.

Vienna, entro oggiaccordo tra Iran, Usa, Russia, Cina, Germania, Gran Bretagna e Francia su programma nucleare Iran.

Sul sito http://www.reuters.it altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche su http://www.twitter.com/reuters_italia