MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi giovedì 11 febbraio 11/02/2016 – RSF

DECRETO BANCHE – E’ arrivato nella tarda serata di ieri il via libera del governo alla riforma delle Banche di credito cooperativo (Bcc) e alle nuove misure per aiutare le banche a smaltire i crediti deteriorati. Il pacchetto mira ad incentivare operazioni di aggregazione perché “l’Italia ha bisogno di banche più grandi”, ha detto Renzi. Il provvedimento recepisce l’accordo siglato con la Commissione europea e istituisce la garanzia pubblica sulla cartolarizzazione dei crediti in sofferenza(Gacs). (news)

ASTA BTP – Rendimenti in probabile rialzo all’asta a medio-lungo in agenda stamane, su cui sono destinate a riflettersi le recenti turbolenze che hanno interessato l’obbligazionario. Il Tesoro metterà a disposizione degli investitori tra 4 e 5,5 miliardi di euro in Btp a 3, 7 e 15 anni. Iera sera in chiusura i titoli in asta mostravano, su piattaforma Tradeweb, un rendimento di 0,12% il 3 anni (0,02% nell’ultima asta), 1,05% il sette anni (0,99%) e 2,12% (2,03%) il15 anni.

SECONDARIO – Lieve rimbalzo ieri per l’obbligazionario, in scia a Piazza Affari e ai titoli bancari dopo il sell-off di martedì. In restringimento di 6 pb lo spread tra Italia e Germania sul tratto a 10 anni, che ripartirà stamaneda 140 punti base. In lieve discesa anche il tasso del decennale, a 1,64% in chiusura.

RENZI A REPUBBLICA – In una lettera a ‘Repubblica’ Renzi risponde a Scalfari, che si era chiesto se il premier fosse favorevole o meno a un ministrodel Tesoro europeo. Prima di parlare di superministri, scrive il premier, bisogna che in Europa si faccia chiarezza sulla politica economica e sull’esigenza di abbandonare la dottrina della sola austerity. L’Italia, ribadisce il premier, “rispetta leregole europee, con un deficit che quest’anno sarà il più basso degli ultimi dieci anni (2,5%)”, mentre Berlino continua ad avere un surplus commerciale eccessivo.

YELLEN – Nuovo intervento nel pomeriggio per la numero uno della Fed, cheparlerà davanti alla commissione Bancaria del Senato. Il discorso replicherà probabilmente quello tenuto ieri alla Camera, dove Yellen ha riconosciuto che l’inasprimento delle condizioni finanziarie e l’incerta dinamica economica cinese rappresentanorischi per la ripresa Usa ma non dovrebbero costringere la Fed debba invertire la rotta al ciclo di rialzo dei tassi di interesse intrapreso a dicembre. (news)

EUROGRUPPO – Tra i Paesi periferici più colpiti dalle tensioni sui mercati dei giorni scorsi ci sono Grecia e Portogallo, la cui situazione economica finirà sotto la lente dei ministri finanziari della zona euro riuniti a Bruxelles. In particolare si cercherà di fare il punto sui progressi fatti da Atene sulle riformepreviste dal programma di salvataggio. Il nodo resta la riforma delle pensioni. Ieri il governatore della banca centrale ellenica ha auspicato che la verifica dei creditori si concluda in tempi rapidi, avvertendo che la previsione di una ripresaeconomica nella seconda parte dell’anno resta fragile. Altro tema sul tavolo sarà la legge di stabilità portoghese. Qualche giorno fa la Commissione europea ha detto che non la respingerà ma che la manovra potrebbe violare le regolee europee(news).

FOREX – Dollaro in discesa al minimo da 15 mesi sullo yen sulle piazze asiatiche, dove gli scambi sono più limitati per la contemporanea chiusura dei mercati cinesi e giapponesi. Le dichiarazioni di Yellen al Congresso nonsono hanno convinto gli investitori che restano dell’idea che per la prossima stretta sui tassi Usa si dovrà aspettare non poco. Attorno alle 7,20, il dollaro <JPY=> scivola a 112,60 yen da 113,52 della precedente chiusura, dopo aver toccato un minimo di 112,515 yen. La valuta nipponica è in risalita anche sull’euro, che scivola a 126,99 da 127,95, in un clima che appare decisamente avverso al rischio <EUR=>. Euro/dollaro <EUR=> 1,1302 da 1,1289.

GREGGIO – Quotazioni in calo per iderivati del greggio, colpiti da un picco di scorte in uno dei principali punti di stoccaggio Usa, che rinnovano le pressioni da eccesso di offerta. I futures sul Brent <LCOc1> cedono 16 centesimi a 30,69 e quelli sul greggio Usa <CLc1> arretrano di44 centesimi a 27,01 dollari il barile.

TREASURIES – Chiusura in rialzo per l’obbligazionario statunitense, dopo una solida asta di titoli decennali (collocati per 23 miliardi), a segnalare l’appetito degli investitori nonostante la netta discesa dei rendimenti. Il benchmark decennale ha terminato la seduta in rialzo di 7/32, rendimento 1,705%.

DATI MACROECONOMICI
GRECIA
Tasso disoccupazione novembre (11,00).

IRLANDA
Prezzi consumo gennaio(12,00).

USA
Nuove richieste sussidi disoccupazione settimanali (14,30) – attesa 281.000.

ASTE DI TITOLI DI STATO
ITALIA
Tesoro offre 1,5-2 miliardi settima tranche Btp a 3 anni scadenza 15/10/2018, cedola 0,30%;2-2,5 miliardi nona tranche Btp a sette anni scadenza 15/9/2022, cedola 1,45%; 0,5-1,0 miliardi 14.ma tranche Btp a 15 anni scadenza 1/3/2030, cedola 3,5%.

EUROPA
Gran Bretagna, Tesoro offre 1,5 miliardi sterline Gilt 2045 cedola 3,5%.

Irlanda, Tesoro offre un miliardo titoli di Stato a 10 anni.

USA
Tesoro offre 15 miliardi dollari titoli Stato 30 anni, scadenza 15/2/2046.

BANCHE CENTRALI
EUROPA
Svezia, Riksbank termina riunione politicamonetaria; annuncia tassi e pubblica rapporto (9,30); conferenza stampa governatore Ingves (11,00).

Zona euro, intervento Liikanen a convegno (9,10).

Zona euro, interventi Dombret (board Bundesbank) a convegni(15,10 e 18,30).

USA
Washington, audizione semestrale Yellen a commissione Bancaria Senato (16,00).

AUSTRALIA
Sydney, audizione semestrale governatore Stevens su economia (23,30).

APPUNTAMENTI
EUROPA
Bruxelles, riunione Eurogruppo(14,30)

USA
Washington, audizione segretario Tesoro Usa Lew su budget 2017 Casa Bianca davanti a Commissione ‘Ways and Means’ della Camera (12,30).

ASIA
Cina, mercati chiusi per ‘Lunar New Year’; fino al 12 febbraiocompreso.

Giappone, mercati chiusi per ‘National Foundation Day’.

Sul sito http://www.reuters.it altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche su http://www.twitter.com/reuters_italia

Websim Focus sui Mercati Finanziari 11/02/2016 – WS

Wall Street ha rallentato nel finale andando a chiudere contrastata: Dow Jones -0,6%, S&P500 –0,2%, Nasdaq +0,3%.

Nel dopoborsa da segnalare il +10% di Tesla e il -11% di Twitter.

Asia. Stamattina Tokio e Shanghai sono chiuse per festività. Hanno riaperto dopo tre giorni Hong Kong e Seul, la prima perde il 4% e la seconda il 3%. Per il listino di Hong Kong, dove nei giorni scorsi è riaffiorata la protesta contro Pechino, è la peggiore partenza delle negoziazioni dopo la vacanza per l’inizio dell’anno lunare dal 1994. Mumbay -1,1%.

I future sulle Borse europee anticipano un avvio in calo dell’1,5%.

Analisi Tecnica Borse.

Il violento rimbalzo delle borse europee, Milano in testa, per ora ha soltanto stoppato una caduta che sembrava inarrestabile. A questo punto il primo livello da monitorare, per vedere se da questi livelli si può ripartire, è rappresentato dai minimi di martedì scorso. Diciamo che le indicazioni in arrivo stamane dall’Estremo Oriente non lasciano del tutto tranquilli: Hong Kong è scesa sui minimi dal 2012.

FtseMib (16.714, +5%). Violento rimbalzo grazie alle banche. Il quadro di fondo è ancora depresso. Per dire che si tratta di una inversione occorre chiudere la settimana almeno sopra 17.200/17.400 punti. Monitoriamo.

Dax (9.017, +1,6%). Un primo segnale di riequilibrio è arrivato. La soglia critica da recuperare per poter respirare rimane sempre intorno a 9.300 punti. Supporti successivi verso 8.400/8mila punti.

S&P500 (1.851 -0,1%). La volatilità rimane doppia rispetto alla media dell’anno scorso, ma in lenta diminuzione. Monitoriamo i minimi annuali a 1.810 punti. Il NASDAQ (4.283, +0,3%) mette pressione al robusto sostegno in area 4.290 punti (minimi di agosto).

Brasile (Bovespa 40.376, -0,5%). Riapre dopo le festività. Prosegue la fase di lenta ricostruzione del trend, intanto annotiamo che l’indice si è allontanato di circa il 10% dal minimo dell’anno (37mila punti).

Commodity.

Petrolio. Si allarga il differenziale tra WTI (27 usd) e Brent (30,7 usd). Il Wti è caduto sui minimi dal 2003 malgrado il calo a sorpresa delle scorte USA perché in realtà i produttori di shale americani sono condannati a pompare greggio per rinviare di qualche settimana (questa è la nostra convinzione) il capestro. Migliore la situazione per il Brent che continua a difendere la soglia dei 30 usd, nostro livello di acquisto.

Oro (1.208 usd). L’incertezza diffusa spinge la quotazione sui massimi dallo scorso maggio ampliando il guadagno del 2016 al 15% circa in dollari. Una chiusura di settimana oltre i 1.200 usd fornirebbe un ulteriore segnale di forza del trend. Manteniamo le posizioni. Fissiamo uno stop prudenziale a 1.100 usd.

Forex.

Valute Emergenti. Malgrado le fibrillazioni delle borse, quasi tutte le valute emergenti rimangono a distanza dai recenti minimi. Il Ringgit malese riesce addirittura a portarsi sui top da ottobre.

Euro/Dollaro. 1,129. Come previsto, la Yellen ha detto che non c’è fretta di alzare i tassi e il mercato ha reagito spingendo il dollaro sui minimi da ottobre. Aspettiamo pazientemente la parte alta del range 1,05-1,15 per tornare a comprare dollari Usa.

Bond governativi.

La febbre sulla periferia rimane alta, in particolare su Portogallo (decennale al 3,7%, massimo da agosto 2014) e Grecia (decennale al 10,6%, massimo da agosto). Rientrano invece le tensioni sull’Italia anche grazie alle novità positive sulle banche. Sempre ben comprata l’area “core”.

USA. Il rendimento del Treasury Bill a 10 anni scende sui minimi di un anno fa a 1,67% da 1,72% di ieri mattina.

Germania. Il rendimento del Bund decennale oscilla poco sopra i minimi dal 2014 in area 0,24%. Il minimo storico segnato del 2015 è a 0,073%.

Italia. Il rendimento del BTP 10 anni scende a 1,64% con lo spread a 139 punti base da 154 di ieri mattina. Lo spread sopra 150 punti base è per noi occasione per cominciare ad alleggerire bund tedeschi e comprare Btp.

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BORSE ASIA-PACIFICO ancora in calo, pesante Hong Kong 11/02/2016 – RSF

11 febbraio (Reuters) – INDICE ORE 9,10 VAR % CHIUS. 2015
ASIA-PAC. <.MIAPJ0000PUS> 366,80 -1,34 411,31
TOKYO chiusa – 19.033,71
HONG KONG 18.545,80-3,85 21.914,40
SINGAPORE 2.560,04 -0,85 2.882,73
TAIWAN chiusa – 8.114,26
SEUL 1.861,54 -2,93 1.800,75
SHANGHAI COMP chiusa -2.850,71
SYDNEY 4.821,08 0,95 5.295,86
MUMBAI 23.430,96 -1,38 26.117,54

11 febbraio (Reuters) – Le borse asiatiche sono anche oggi negative, con Hong Kong che torna a trattare dopo lalunga pausa per il Capodanno con un pesante ribasso, per il perdurare delle incertezze, che allontanano gli investitori dall’azionario a favore di bond e oro e con il dollaro ai minimi da 15 mesi sullo yen.

L’indice MSCI <.MIAPJ0000PUS>, attornoalle 8,50 ora italiana, perde circa 1,3%, mentre la borsa di Tokyo è chiusa per festività.

Il mercato australiano fa eccezione con una chiusura al rialzo. L’indice della Borsa di SYDNEY è salito dello 0,95% grazie ai buonirisultati societari che hanno dato un po’ di fiato al mercato. Il produttore di apparecchi per l’udito Cochlear Ltd è salito del 9,65% ai massimi di sempre dopo aver alzato le stime per l’anno grazie alle buone vendite in Cina e a nuoviclienti negli Usa.

Shanghai, Taiwan sono ancora chiuse per i festeggiamenti del nuovo anno lunare.

HONG KONG è tornata a trattare dopo il Capodanno lunare con una perdita attorno al 4% avviandosi a chiudere la peggiore seduta da sei mesi.L’indice China-enterprises cala del 5%, peggiore caduta dal 24 agosto 2015. Pesanti anche i tecnologici.

SEOUL arretra di quasi il 3% con l’indice che ha toccato nel corso della seduta la maggiore perdita percentuale da oltre treanni e mezzo.

Sul sito http://www.reuters.it altre notizie Reuters in italiano Le top news anche suwww.twitter.com/reuters_italia

Twitter goes splat, Tesla charms, China’s soccer domination

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The anti-ISIL coalition meets in Brussels. Defense ministers from 66 countries will meet at NATO headquarters to discuss the conflict in Syria. US defense secretary Ash Carter is expected to share plans to retake parts of Syria and Iraq from ISIL, and call upon other nations to play a bigger role against the group.

A huge discovery could reaffirm Albert Einstein’s genius. A team of US physicists is expected to announce their discovery of clear, unambiguous evidence of gravitational waves, 100 years after the physicist first predicted their existence. The team’s work could earn them a Nobel Prize, if it holds up.

A gaming giant reports earnings. Investors in Activision Blizzard willexpect an update on the $5.9 billion acquisition of King Digital, the smartphone game maker behind Candy Crush Saga. A recent deal with Apple TV could also prove a successful platform for new revenue.

Earnings: PepsiCo is expected to offset a global decline in demand for fizzy, sugary drinks with strong results from its massive snacks unit. AIG, CBS, Thompson Reuters, and Time Inc. are among other companies also reporting earnings.

While you were sleeping

Hong Kong’s stock market had a historic fall. The Hang Seng indexdropped by 3.8% in morning trading—the biggest tumble to start a Chinese new year since 1994. That followed riots earlier this week ostensibly over a police crackdown on unlicensed hawker stalls, but really over Beijing’s heavy hand.

The US backed sanctions against North Korea. The Senate unanimously voted for increased economic restrictions on anyone involved in the country’s rocket or weapons program. The move, which president Barack Obama has yet to sign, follows further sanctions by South Korea and Japan.

Twitter’s user growth hit the ceiling. The micro-blogging company’s active monthly users failed to grow at all in the fourth quarter (and actually dropped, according to some metrics) from the three months previous. But itreduced its quarterly loss to $90.2 million, from $125.4 million a year earlier; shares fell in after-hours trading.

Tesla’s charm masked some pretty dire results. The carmaker posted fourth-quarter sales on the low end of expectations, with losses far deeper than anticipated, and said that its cash pile fell to $1.2 billion, from $1.9 billion a year earlier. But it promised it would be profitable this year, and shares rose more than 10%.

Whole Foods reported a mixed quarter. The upscale US grocery chain posted a fourth-quarter decline in same-store sales but a better-than-expected net income. Higher overall sales also helped prevent the share price from falling too sharply. The store has been focusing on value-priced goods.

Quartz obsession interlude

Gwynn Guilford on what would happen if Donald Trump became the US president. “In a word, chaos. In two, expensive chaos… But here’s the surprise: While most of his proposals are sheer lunacy, some of his economic proposals are grounded in a surprisingly well-developed worldview—one that could arguably help American workers, though not without enormous disruption.” Read more here.

Markets haiku

Look, Janet Yellen

Has apparently noticed

Those ugly markets

Matters of debate

A basic pillar of finance is crumbling. Negative interest rates have turned financial logic upside-down.

The world’s richest countries are a ticking demographic time bomb.The year 2040 is not looking good.

There’s a microcephaly-causing virus even scarier than Zika.Cytomegalovirus is already just about everywhere.

Surprising discoveries

Egypt’s presidential motorcade drove along a two-mile (3.2 km) red carpet. It was visiting some of Cairo’s poorest people.

Chinese prostitutes are flooding into Africa. An increase in Chinese expats there, and rising local wages, are fueling the boom.

Colorado now has a billion-dollar marijuana industry. It’s earned the state more than $135 million in taxes.

More twins are being born in developed countries. An increase in older women giving birth is the likely cause.

China is reshaping soccer. Taking advantage of Brazil’s economic downturn, Chinese clubs have been signing some of the country’s top players.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, red carpets, and marijuana stats to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitterfor updates throughout the day.

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New Hampshire results, Zika in China, assault with alligator

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Are Japanese stocks setting the tone for a slump? The benchmark Nikkei 225 has dropped by 3.9% and counting, following its worst day since 2013 yesterday, on concerns about banking stocks. Another bad day in Japan could create more pessimism in European markets.

Janet Yellen in the spotlight. The Federal Reserve chair will take two days of questions from US lawmakers; investors hope she can help calm the volatile global economy.

Twitter’s moment of truth. The company’s quarterly results may be the most important in its history, following a period of turmoil and stock declines. Growth numbers have been anemic and users have complained about impending changes to the Twitter timeline.

While you were sleeping

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire. The billionaire real estate mogul has so far raked in the votes from the US’s first presidential primary, putting Ohio governor John Kasich second. Sanderstrounced Hillary Clinton with 60% of the votes to her 40%. Around 80% of districts have reported results (paywall).

China reported its first case of the Zika virus. A 34-year-old mancontracted the disease in South America and returned home via Hong Kong and Shenzhen after displaying symptoms. Authorities are playing down concerns of contagion because of the cold weather there.

Deutsche Bank is planning an emergency buyback. Germany’s biggest lender is considering buying back billions of euros worth of senior bonds,according to the Financial Times (paywall). The aim is to prop up the value of the bank’s securities and share price, which have plummeted since the beginning of the year.

The US said North Korea is preparing more nukes. US intelligence chief James Clapper said Pyongyang has expanded plutonium productionand is committed to building a long-range missile that could pose a “direct threat” to the United States.

Record Disney earnings couldn’t stop its share price falling. The entertainment company reported a net income of $2.9 billion in the three months ending January, from $2.2 billion a year earlier. But concerns of its cable TV relevance, in an age of online viewing, sent shares down 3.5%.

Asahi issued a disappointing outlook. The Japanese beer giant said sales will remain largely flat in 2016, but that net income will be around 10% lower than analysts expected, at 80 billion yen ($697.4 million). The company will continue to seek growth through mergers and acquisitions.

Quartz obsession interlude

Mike Murphy on Google’s plans for self-driving delivery trucks.“Google’s patent outlines what it calls an ‘autonomous delivery platform’… The trucks would be fitted with a series of lockers that could potentially be unlocked with a PIN code sent to the person waiting for the delivery before the truck arrives at their location.” Read more here.

Markets haiku

Please Janet Yellen
Utter those sweet, soothing words
“Rate hike hiatus”

Matters of debate

History is the most important lesson in economics. Without it, economists are unable to take a wider perspective.

Nairobi’s cultural openness is making it a global cuisine hub. The Kenyan city is on track to be the best in Africa for foodies.

Clinton and Sanders are tearing the Democratic party apart. Their in-fighting threatens to undo eight years of progress.

Surprising discoveries

Actually, an Indian man wasn’t killed by a meteorite. NASA believes the evidence points to a land-based explosion instead (paywall).

A Florida man tossed an alligator through a drive-thru window. He was charged with “assault with a deadly weapon.”

Beyoncé is a boon to Red Lobster. Sales jumped 30% after her risqué reference to the seafood restaurant.

US kids are developing a surprising aptitude for math. After years of ridicule, they are excelling in international competitions.

Sighing is not just a sign of despair. The crucial reflex actually preserves lung function and keeps you alive.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, math tricks, and alligator repellant to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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Hong Kong riot, Bloomberg for president, meteorite fatality

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Voters turn out for the New Hampshire primary in the US. Democratic senator Bernie Sanders has a significant lead over Hillary Clinton in the state polls, while Donald Trump continues to lead in the Republican race. Final results may not be confirmed until Wednesday morning, but punditry will run all night.

Scaled-back military drills kick off in Thailand. Cobra Gold, the largest annual multinational military exercise in the Asia-Pacific region, will include fewer US troops this year. That’s because of diplomatic friction between the US and the heavy-handed Thai military junta.

Congress snubs Obama’s budget. Republican lawmakers will break with tradition and decline to hear a presentation of the White House’s 2017 budget proposal. The $4 trillion budget, which proposes spending and avoids cuts, arrives on the same day as the New Hampshire primaries.

A big day for earnings. Viacom posts results after a shakeup that replaced longtime chairman Sumner Redstone. Disney’s results should be stellar, powered by Star Wars merchandise, but investors will look for plans regarding its struggling ESPN network. Coke is expected to take a hit over aglobal decline on soda sales.

While you were sleeping

A riot erupted in Hong Kong. Protests against an attempt by police to close down unlicensed food stalls turned violent after riot officers arrived. More than 40 were injured and 24 protestors were arrested in the clashes, which were fueled in part by dissatisfaction about the pro-Beijing government.

Michael Bloomberg confirmed his presidential plans. The media mogultold the Financial Times (paywall) that he considers the current state of the race to be “an outrage and an insult to the voters.” The billionaire’s long-shot candidacy would need to move fast and spend a lot of money to get onto state primary ballots by March.

Zenefits’ CEO stepped down over compliance issues. Parker Conrad, co-founder of the human resources startup, left the company after it was alleged to have used unlicensed brokers to sell health insurance. Zenefits, valued at $4.5 billion, offers free HR services to small businesses but makes money by selling health insurance to its customers.

Twenty-First Century Fox’s revenue fell. Lower DVD sales contributed to a 14% drop in fiscal second quarter earnings at its film studio unit. Its cable TV division made up for some of that thanks to increased audiences for NBA games and Republican debates. The company’s share price fell 2.5%.

A poor start for the trading day in Asia. Japan’s Nikkei fell by 4.9% in morning trading (paywall), while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down by 2.9%. Banking stocks led the decline, after doing the same in the US yesterday.

North Korea’s satellite reached orbit. It is not yet clear whether the technology on board is functioning, but South Korea’s defense ministry said that reaching orbit shows that the country has rockets capable of traveling 12,000 km (7,500 miles). Sunday’s launch was widely criticized.

Quartz obsession interlude

Alex Haddon on American football’s injury crisis. “Hints of an American football decline—at least among young players—are dovetailing with growth elsewhere. In particular, participation in soccer across the US has grown 8% over the last five years. In 2014, over 3 million boys and girls were registered as part of the US Youth Soccer League, the largest member of the United States Soccer Federation.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Bernie Sanders is making voters feel poor. His presidential campaigninadvertently discourages people from voting by reminding them of their financial woes.

Hating Martin Shkreli misses the larger point. His grandstanding questioners could have addressed huge problems with the pharmaceutical industry.

South Africa is facing another unhinged political year. President Jacob Zuma is great at dodging scandals, but his influence is shrinking.

Surprising discoveries

The US is holding $4 billion of Bernie Madoff’s ill-gotten gains.Thousands of victims are still waiting for repayment.

An Indian man was reportedly killed by a meteorite. It’s the first recorded death by falling star in 200 years.

Ocean acidification could leave fish lost at sea. Rising levels of carbon dioxide could dull their sense of direction.

Undiscovered species are hiding right under experts’ noses.Museums have closets and shelves full of likely candidates.

Millions of Americans have been incorrectly labeled “unhealthy.” TheBody Mass Index is not an accurate measure of health.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, undiscovered species, and accurate health measures to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day.

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Trading Diary | Batten down the hatches

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

By Colin Twiggs
January 9th, 2016 12:30 a.m. EST (4:30 p.m. AEDT)

 

Batten down the hatches, the storm is here.

Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures

* Target calculation: 30 – ( 40 – 30 ) = 20

Long-term interest rates are falling, with 10-year Treasury yields headed for another test of primary support at 1.5 percent. Breach of 1.7 percent would confirm. The flight from stocks is driving up Treasuries (and yields lower).

10-year Treasury Yields

Flight to safety is (normally) synonymous with a strong Dollar, so the weakening Dollar Index is a surprise.

Dollar Index

China must be selling off Dollar reserves to support the Yuan and restore confidence.

USDCNY

Too late, I’m afraid. That horse has bolted. Loss of confidence in the Yuan is driving demand for gold, with the spot metal rallying to $1200 per ounce. Resistance at the former support level makes retracement likely, but a trough that respects $1100 or narrow consolidation below $1200 would suggest reversal (to an up-trend). Breach of $1200 would offer a target of $1300*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 + ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1300

After forming a lower peak at 18000, Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 16000. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of 14000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16000 – ( 18000 – 16000 ) = 14000

The S&P 500 displays a similar pattern, testing primary support at 1850, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero. Breach of support would offer a target of 1500*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1850 – ( 2150 – 1850 ) = 1550

A monthly chart shows VIX rising for another test of 30. Oscillation between 20 and 30 flags elevated market risk.

CBOE Volatility Index

Australia’s ASX 200 retreated below primary support at 5000, signaling a primary down-trend. A 13-week Twiggs peak below zero already warns of a decline. Today’s close at 4832 confirms, offering a short-term target of 4600* and a long-term target of 4000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4850 – ( 5050 – 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

Investors who plan to hold stocks through a possible down-turn should stop watching daily prices and listening to news reports. It will only weaken your resolve. I am comfortable with holding stocks with strong dividend streams, but wary of holding growth stocks as they normally suffer the biggest losses.

For traders this is a time of dangerous opportunity. Either shorting sectors likely to be worst hit or waiting for opportunities to buy gold stocks.

Northern Star (NST)