Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Copyright 2014 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future is trending higher 14 points to 16890. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.039 points to 79.859. Gold has climbed 2.500 dollars to 1327.480. Silver is higher 0.05900 dollars to 21.08800. The Dow Industrials rose 137.40 points, at 16964.00, while the S&P 500 moved up 13.56 points, last seen at 1973.79. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 51.26 points to 4459.44. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Wednesday
8:30 AM ET. 1st. Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. Annual U.S. International Investment Position
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI
Employment Index (previous 54.6)
New Orders Index (previous 70.2)
Prices Paid Index (previous 66.8)
Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (previous 65.5)
Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 51.7)
10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index
Current (previous 97.8)
MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +0.4%)
YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous -9.2%)
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity Index (previous 8)
Manufacturing Production Index (previous 11)
1:00 PM ET. June Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator
DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous
7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +2%)
Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +4.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
MoM % Change (previous -1.7%)
12MonChgPct (previous +3.4%)
52WkChgPct (previous +3.3%)
9:00 AM ET. June US Manufacturing PMI
10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending – Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.2%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. June ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 55.4)
Prices Index (previous 60)
Employment Index (previous 52.8)
Inventories (previous 53)
New Orders Index (previous 56.9)
Production Index (previous 61)
10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Index (previous 47.7)
6-Month Economic Outlook (previous 45.6)
11:00 AM ET. June Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Manufacturing (previous 52.2)
4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Annualized Vehicle Sales (previous 16.77M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.2M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.25M)
Refinery Runs (previous
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 348.1)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -1%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 176.4)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -1.2%)
Refinance Index (previous 1322.6)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -0.9%)
7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M (previous +31%)
8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report
Private Payrolls Forecast (previous +179000)
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-NY Report on Business
US ISM-NY Business Index (previous 55.3)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders (previous +0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -0.1%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +0.5%)
Durable Goods 1st Est (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods Revised (previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 388.09M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.74M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 214.98M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.71M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 120.57M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.18M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.5%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 18.81M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +217K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 6.3%)
Average Hourly Earnings (previous 24.38)
Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (previous +0.05)
Manufacturing Payrolls (previous +10K)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0)
Service Producing Payrolls (previous +199K)
Government Payrolls (previous +1K)
Federal Payrolls (previous -5K)
Non-Farm Payrolls (Bench Net Chg)
Private Payroll (previous +216K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 553.5K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 774.9K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 359.5K)
8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Deficit (previous -47.24B)
Exports (previous 193.35B)
Exports Percent Change (previous -0.2%)
Imports (previous 240.58B)
Imports Percent Change (previous +1.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (previous 312K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -2K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 2571000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +12K)
9:00 AM ET. June US Services PMI
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Index (previous 56.3)
Non-Manufacturng Business Index (previous 62.1)
Prices Index (previous 61.4)
Employment Index (previous 52.4)
New Orders Index (previous 60.5)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1829B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +110B
11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.6)
1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank
N/A Marianas: U.S. Independence Day
N/A U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed
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CURRENCIES
CURRENCIES: The September Euro currency closed down 15 points at 1.3683 today. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a six-week high early on today. The Euro bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The September Japanese yen closed down 25 points at .9855 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The September Swiss franc closed down 12 points at 1.1275 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a seven-week high early on today. The bulls have the near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The September Canadian dollar closed up 26 points at .9385 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another seven-month high today. The bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
The September British pound closed up 47 points at 1.7142 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh contract high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The September U.S. dollar index closed up 0.049 at 79.860 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a seven-week low early on today. The greenback bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.
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ENERGIES
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $106.00 and then at $106.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.43 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
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FOOD & FIBER
SOFTS: October sugar closed down 21 points at 17.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-week low. Sugar bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage.
September coffee closed down 415 points at 170.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The coffee bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
September cocoa closed down $6 at $3,121 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, a rare and potentially bearish broadening pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to hint of a market top being close at hand.
December cotton closed down 11 points at 73.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting another contract low early on today. While the bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, today’s high- range close suggests the cotton bears have become exhausted and a market low could be in place.
September orange juice closed up 20 points at $1.4695 today. Prices closed near mid-range but did hit a four- month low early on today. The FCOJ bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
September lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $333.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $327.20.
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GRAINS
GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 2 1/4 cents at $4.23 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the high after hitting another contract low early on. The bearish USDA report Monday and generally good growing and crop conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt are bearish. The corn bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage.
November soybeans closed down 10 3/4 cents at $11.46 1/2 a bushel Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 4.5- month low today. A very bearish USDA report Monday and mostly good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are bearish beans. A big and bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
December soybean meal closed down $5.30 at $362.10 Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another 3.5- month low. The soybean meal bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.
December bean oil closed up 8 points at 39.23 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering in a bear market. The bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents at $5.95 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a five-month low close today. The wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
December HRW wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents at $6.96 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another four-month low today. The wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
December oats closed up 8 cents at $3.32 Tuesday. Prices closed near the session high after hitting a three-week low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 28/32 at 136 10/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T Notes down 10.5 (32nds) at 124.27.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking. The T-Note bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage.
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INTEREST RATES
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 137 even and then at the overnight high of 137 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136 13/32 and then at 136 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 125.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 125.05.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.24.0 and then at 124.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
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LIVESTOCK
LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $1.42 at $151.50 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. The cattle bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage in this major and mature bull market. A three-month-old uptrend remains firmly in place on the daily bar chart.
August feeder cattle closed up the $3.00 limit at $215.77 Tuesday. Prices closed at a contract and record high close today. There was not good follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday and a bearish “key reversal” down was not confirmed on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
August lean hogs closed down $2.42 at $130.40 Tuesday. Prices hit a contract high today and then reversed course to close sharply lower and score a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there is follow-through selling pressure on Wednesday then a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be confirmed, which would be an early technical clues that a market top is in place. But right now the hog bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
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PRECIOUS METALS
METALS: August gold futures closed up $5.90 an ounce at $1,328.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 3.5-week high today. Gold market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum early this week. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
December silver futures closed up $0.07 an ounce at $21.185 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today but did hit a 3.5-month high early on. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week- old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
December N.Y. copper closed down 10 points at 320.00 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another four- month high today. Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
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