M O N D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
8:30 AM ET. Jan Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income (expected -2.5%; previous +2.6%)
Personal Spending (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.3%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.4%)
9:00 AM ET. US Manufacturing PMI
9:55 AM ET. Feb Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 76.3; previous 73.8)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 66.6)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 85)
10:00 AM ET. Jan Construction Spending – Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.5%; previous +0.9%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. Feb ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.5; previous 53.1)
Prices Index (previous 56.5)
Employment Index (previous 54)
Inventories (previous 51)
New Orders Index (previous 53.3)
Production Index (previous 53.6)
11:00 AM ET. Feb Global Manufacturing PMI
4:00 PM ET. Feb Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Annualized Vehicle Sales (expected 15.2M; previous 15.29M)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of
Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 2744.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
March renews this month’s decline, the January 2nd gap crossing at 2665.00 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 2744.26. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at
crossing at 2786.50. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 2689.00. Second
support is the January 2nd gap crossing at 2665.00.
The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, this
month’s high crossing at 1530.00 is the next upside target. If March renews
this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally
crossing at 1457.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday’s
high crossing at 1524.30. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at
1530.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the November-February
rally crossing at 1482.65. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 1457.55.
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March T-bonds was higher overnight and is poised to renew this month’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned
rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at
146-24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 143-29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February decline
crossing at 146-24. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
November-February decline crossing at 147-26. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 144-15. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 143-29.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April crude oil was lower overnight and tested the 62% retracement level of
the November-February rally crossing at 91.11 as it extends this month’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s
decline, the 750% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at
89.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 95.45 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.63. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 95.45. First support is the 62% retracement level of
the November-February rally crossing at 91.11. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 89.49.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off this
month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends this month’s
decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at
288.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 312.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 307.42. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.89. First support is the 50%
retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 288.73. Second
support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at
280.57.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 322.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If April extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 297.66 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.40. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 331.96. First support is the overnight low
crossing at 307.52. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 297.66.
April Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends this
week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s
rally, January’s high crossing at 3.670 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.371 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 3.554. Second
resistance is January’s high crossing at 3.670. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3.371. Second support is this month’s low crossing
at 3.191.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month’s rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that additional short-term gains are possible. If March extends this month’s
rally, the 62% retracement level of the July-February decline crossing at 82.61
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
80.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.35. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of the July-February decline crossing at 82.61. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.51. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 80.82.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this month’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at
129.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 133.24 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.77. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 133.24. First support is the overnight low
crossing at 130.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 129.40.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this month’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this
year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 1.4857 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5446 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1.5231. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.5447. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.5008.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.4857.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this month’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s
decline, November’s low crossing at .10555 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10842 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .10746. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10842. First support is the overnight low crossing at .10620. Second support
is November’s low crossing at .10555.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this year’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the
decline off January’s high, the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing
at 96.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 98.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.81. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.86. First support is the
overnight low crossing at 96.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 96.33.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the
reaction high crossing at .10854 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March renews the decline off September’s high, monthly
support crossing at .10532 is the next downside target. First resistance is
Monday’s high crossing at .11009. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at .10360. First support is this month’s low crossing at .10588.
Second support is monthly support crossing at .10532.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January’s high, last
May’s low crossing at 1538.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1625.10 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1588.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1625.10.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 1554.30. Second support is
last May’s low crossing at 1538.70.
May silver was lower overnight renewing this month’s decline. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month’s decline,
the 87% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at 27.529 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.102
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.863. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 30.102. First support is the overnight low
crossing at 28.000. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
June-October rally crossing at 27.529.
May copper was sharply lower overnight as it renewed this month’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends this month’s
decline, November’s low crossing at 343.75 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 367.72 are needed to temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 359.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
367.72. First support is the overnight low crossing at 347.55. Second support
is November’s low crossing at 343.75.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: May sugar closed up 37 points at 18.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh three-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart. Good follow-through buying interest
on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term
technical momentum and it would also begin to suggest a
market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was at least
temporarily negated today.
May coffee closed down 105 points at 142.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today as prices hover
just above the recent contract low. A stronger U.S. dollar
index today was bearish for coffee. The coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
May cocoa closed up $2 at $2,133 a ton. Prices closed near
mid-range again today. Prices are hovering near an 8.5-
month low. A stronger U.S. dollar index limited the upside
in cocoa today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
May cotton closed up 110 points at 85.48 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
9.5-month high today. Prices also closed at a bullish
monthly high close today. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside power late this week.
May orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.2490 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. FCOJ bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely.
May lumber futures closed up $9.90 at $385.80 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $372.50.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.03 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If May renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing
at 6.78 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.03 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of
the August-January decline crossing at 7.18 1/2. First support is Monday’s low
crossing at 6.80 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.78 1/2.
May wheat was lower overnight but remains above the 87% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 6.99 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.40 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May
extends this month’s decline, last May’s low crossing at 6.65 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.22
3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4. First
support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.97 3/4. Second support is last May’s low
crossing at 6.65.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 10-cents at 7.52 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the decline off November’s high. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January’s high, the 87%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.10 1/2 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.90 1/4 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 7.64 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.90 1/4. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
7.40 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing
at 7.10 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins to
trade. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If May extends this winter’s decline, the 87%
retracement level of the 2012-rally crossing at 7.79 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.13. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.30 1/2. First support is
Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.93. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
the 2012-rally crossing at 7.79.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s short
covering bounce. The low-range close sets the stage for steady to lower opening
when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.45 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off
this month’s high, the reaction low crossing at 13.93 1/2 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 14.67 1/2. Second
resistance is February’s high crossing at 14.97. First support is Tuesday’s low
crossing at 1420 1/2. Second support is February’s low crossing at 13.93 1/2.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week’s
rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May
extends this week’s rally, December’s high crossing at 455.00 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 424.50 would
confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is this month’s high
crossing at 443.90. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 455.00.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 424.50. Second support
is February’s low crossing at 402.10.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this month’s decline, December’s low crossing at 48.40 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.59 would
confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 50.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 51.59. First support is the overnight low crossing at 48.82. Second
support is December’s low crossing at 48.40.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.57 at $82.37.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday extending the decline off November’s
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If April extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the May-November rally crossing at 81.14 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.73 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 84.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
86.73. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 82.12. Second resistance is
the 87% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at 81.14.
April cattle closed down $0.40 at 127.82.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s decline, last
April’s low crossing at 125.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 130.92 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 130.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 133.65.
First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 127.50. Second support is last
April’s low crossing at 125.90.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.02 at $140.70.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 145.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If March renews this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 138.48 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
143.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.98.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 139.50. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 138.48.
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T H A N K Y O U
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