T H U R S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 3, 2013
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 817)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -12.3%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 198)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -4.8%)
Refinance Index (previous 4519.1)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -13.8%)
7:30 AM ET. Dec Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M
8:15 AM ET. Dec ADP National Employment Report
Private Payrolls Forecast (expected +150000; previous +118000)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 363K; previous 350K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -12K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3206000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -32K)
9:45 AM ET. Dec ISM-NY Report on Business
US ISM-NY Business Index (previous 52.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +1.8%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +1%)
12:00 PM ET. Dec ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:00 PM ET. Dec Domestic Auto Industry Sales Vehicle Sales
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 26M)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 17M)
Primary Dealer Borrowings
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 613M)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 640M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.17M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.41M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.95M)
Refinery Runs (previous 91.6%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.24T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 311.05B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.89T)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s
rally, the reaction high crossing at crossing at 2773.25 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2659.57 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 2773.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 2804.15. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2659.57. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at
2580.00.
The March S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at
1467.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1421.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1458.00. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing at 1467.50. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1421.30. Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1383.00.
______________________________
March T-bonds was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the decline off December’s high, the 75% retracement level of the
September-November rally crossing at 145-09 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-28 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
147-28. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November
rally crossing at 145-09. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November rally crossing at 144-09.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
February crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December’s
low, the reaction high crossing at 94.42 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.94 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 93.87. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.42. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.75. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 88.94.
February heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight while
extending the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If February extends the rally off December’s low, December’s high
crossing at 310.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 299.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is December’s high crossing at 310.26. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 317.98. First support is the 50% retracement level
of the June-September rally crossing at 289.15. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 281.23.
February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some
of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
February extends the rally off November’s low, September’s high crossing at
286.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 269.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 281.36. Second resistance is
September’s high crossing at 286.60. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 269.66. Second support is December’s low crossing at 259.59.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight and testing the 87%
retracement level of the April-October rally crossing at 3.211. Stochastics and
the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the
decline off November’s high, weekly support crossing at 2.923 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.437 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.383. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3.438. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
3.305. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.923.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December’s
low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally,
December’s high crossing at 81.05 is the next upside target. Closes below
Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.28. Second
resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.05. First support is Wednesday’s
low crossing at 79.46. Second support is December’s low crossing at 79.01.
The March Euro was lower overnight and trading below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 131.42. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.42 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
If March renews the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at
133.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing
at 133.21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 133.91. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.42. Second support is the
November-December uptrend line crossing near 131.00.
The March British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance
crossing at 1.6348 is the next downside target. Closes below last Thursday’s
low crossing at 1.6065 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1.6314. Second resistance is
weekly resistance crossing at 1.6348. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 1.6065. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5998.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight and trading below the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10881. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at .10881 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the
2011-2012 decline crossing at .11153 is the next upside target. First
resistance is December’s high crossing at .11026. Second is the 62% retracement
level of the 2011-2012 decline crossing at .11153. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10881. Second support is December’s low crossing at
.10678.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this week’s rally, December’s high crossing at 101.58 then the
reaction high crossing at 102.10 are the next upside targets. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 100.70 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If March renews the decline off December’s high, November’s
low crossing at 99.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is
December’s high crossing at 101.58. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 102.10. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 100.11.
Second support is November’s low crossing at 99.19.
The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off September’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September’s
high, monthly support crossing at .11307 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11873 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .11689. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.11873. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at .11453. Second support is
monthly support crossing at .11307.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off
December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1683.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If February renews the decline off November’s high, the 75%
retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 1603.50 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1683.10.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1704.40. First support is
December’s low crossing at 1636.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level
of this year’s rally crossing at 1603.50 is the next downside target.
March silver was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.562 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline
off November’s high, the 75% retracement level of the June-October rally
crossing at 28.687 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 31.562. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 32.600. First support is the reaction low crossing at 29.635.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing
at 28.687.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December’s
low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low,
October’s high crossing at 382.90 is the next upside target. Closes below
Monday’s low crossing at 358.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 377.10. Second
resistance is October’s high crossing at 382.90. First support is Monday’s low
crossing at 358.15. Second support is December’s low crossing at 352.30.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee close higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.69 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The
high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 15.51 is the next upside target. If March renews the
decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 12.90 is the next
downside target.
March cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of the decline off December’s high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness
is possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 21.45 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.55 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off
December’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the rally off December’s low, December’s high crossing at 19.94 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.19
would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews this year’s
decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is
the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of last week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 73.37 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.84 would
temper the near-term bearish outlook.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November’s
high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins
trading. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 50% retracement
level of the May-August rally crossing at 6.78 3/4 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.14 1/4 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 6.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.14 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6.85.
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at
6.78 3/4.
March wheat closed lower overnight as it extends Wednesday’s decline below
the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.65 3/4. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the decline off the late-November high, the 75% retracement level
of this year’s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.05 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.79 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 8.05. First support is the overnight low crossing at 7.49 3/4. Second
support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 20-cents at 8.11.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday extending the decline off
November’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the decline off the late-November high, the 62% retracement level
of this year’s rally crossing at 7.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.61 1/2 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 8.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 8.61 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second support
is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.76 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
decline off the late-November high, the 75% retracement level of this year’s
rally crossing at 8.15 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.69
3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.92. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 8.40 3/4. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower overnight as it extends Wednesday’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline
off December’s high, November’s low crossing at 13.56 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.44 3/4 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 14.44 3/4. Second resistance is December’s
high crossing at 15.01 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at
13.72 1/2. Second support is November’s low crossing at 13.56.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off
December’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December’s high, the
62% retracement level of the 2010-2012 rally crossing at 379.10 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 433.80 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 422.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 433.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at
398.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2012-rally
crossing at 379.10.
March soybean was lower due to profit taking overnight. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, December’s
high crossing at 51.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 49.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 51.85. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.31. First support is December’s
low crossing at 47.92. Second support is November’s low crossing at 47.35.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.45 at $86.17.
February hogs closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday filling
Monday’s gap. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.71 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off
December’s low, November’s high crossing at 88.25 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.55. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.77. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 84.45. Second resistance is December’s low crossing at
83.20.
February cattle closed up $0.07 at 132.37.
February cattle closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of the decline off December’s high. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
132.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February
renews the rally off November’s low, last February’s high crossing at 135.90 is
the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 134.40.
Second resistance is last February’s high crossing at 135.90. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.31. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 131.32.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.37 at $153.90.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 153.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the
door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off
November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at
157.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing
at 157.07. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July
decline crossing at 157.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 153.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 147.82.
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T H A N K Y O U
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