T U E S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
1 Quarter Manpower Quarterly U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
7:30 AM ET. Nov NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Optimism Index (expected 91.8; previous 93.1)
7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous -3.1%)
Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
U.S. Corn, Ending Stocks, Bushels (previous 0.65B)
U.S. Soybean, Ending Stocks, Bushels (previous 140M)
U.S. Wheat, Ending Stocks, Bushels (previous 0.7B)
8:30 AM ET. Oct U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Deficit (expected -42.8B; previous -41.55B)
Exports (previous 187B)
Exports Percent Change (previous +3.1%)
Imports (previous 228.54B)
Imports Percent Change (previous +1.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
MoM % Change (previous -0.3%)
12MonChgPct (previous +2.1%)
10:00 AM ET. Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Index (previous 48.6)
6-Month Economic Outlook (previous 46.8)
10:00 AM ET. Oct Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. Oct Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. ISM Semiannual Report On Business & Economic Forecast
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.22M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +5.71M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.08M)
Refinery Runs (previous 89.6%)
N/A Federal Reserve Board – U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday and the mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2610.83 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the
rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November
decline crossing at 2715.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Monday’s high crossing at 2688.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement
level of the September-November decline crossing at 2715.55. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2610.83. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 2502.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 1418.40 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1387.44 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
last Monday’s high crossing at 1415.00. Second resistance is November’s high
crossing at 1418.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1387.44. Second support is November’s low crossing at 1340.00.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off November’s low.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the
rally off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 13,290 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,896 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 13,195. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 13,290.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,896. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 12,765.
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March T-bonds closed up 7/32’s at 149-24.
March T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last
Friday’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the
November 23rd low, November’s high crossing at 151-10 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 148-11 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness
near-term. First resistance is November’s high crossing at 151-10. Second
resistance is July’s high crossing at 153-11. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 148-11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146-08.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
January crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends last week’s decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s
night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline
off September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 82.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 89.67 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of a six week old
trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 89.67. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.98. First support is the 75%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 85.06. Second support
is the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.36.
January heating oil closed lower on Monday and tested the 50% retracement
level of the June-October rally crossing at 290.08 as it extended last week’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If January extends the decline off last week’s high, the 62%
retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at 281.91 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.40
would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 301.40. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 310.26. First support is today’s low crossing at 289.42.
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing
at 281.91.
January unleaded gas closed slightly higher due to short covering on Monday
as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends last week’s
decline, November’s low crossing at 253.24 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.61 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 267.61. Second resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 276.20.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 258.93. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 253.24.
January Henry natural gas gapped down and closed lower on Monday renewing
the decline off November’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold,
diverging but are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November’s
high, the 75% retracement level of the April-October rally crossing at 3.319 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
3.763 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.763. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 3.914. First support is today’s low crossing at
3.415. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-October rally
crossing at 3.319.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar closed lower on Monday ending a three-day rebound off last
Wednesday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 80.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If March renews the decline off November’s high, the 75% retracement level of
the September-November rally crossing at 79.62 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.71. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.42. First support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level
of the September-November rally crossing at 79.62.
The March Euro closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the
decline off last Wednesday’s high but remains below the 10-day moving average.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.13
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally
off November’s low, September’s high crossing at 131.88 is the next upside
target. First resistance is October’s high crossing at 131.55. Second
resistance is September’s high crossing at 131.88. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 129.13. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 127.60.
The March British Pound closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1.6050. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5981 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s
low, November’s high crossing at 1.6140 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.6126. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 1.6140. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.5981. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5903.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidated some of last week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10716
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally
off November’s low, October’s high crossing at .10874 is the next upside
target. First resistance is November’s high crossing at .10842. Second
resistance is October’s high crossing at .10874. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10716. Second support is November’s low crossing at
.10555.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends last week’s
breakout above the September-October downtrend line. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 102.10 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
100.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 101.14. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 102.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
100.24. Second support is November’s low crossing at 99.19.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Monday and the mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.12258 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March
renews this fall’s decline, March’s low crossing at .12000 are the next
downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at .12253.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .12258. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at .12084. Second support is March’s low
crossing at .12000.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
February gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidates some of the decline off November’s high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1723.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February extends the
decline off November’s high, November’s low crossing at 1674.70 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1723.10. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 1757.10. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1684.10. Second support is November’s
low crossing at 1674.70.
March silver closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidates some of the decline off November’s high. The mid-range close set
the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November’s
high, the reaction low crossing at 32.110 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.463 would temper the near-term
bearish outlook. First resistance is November’s high crossing at 35.200. Second
resistance is October’s high crossing at 35.510. First support is the reaction
low crossing at 32.110. Second support is November’s low crossing at 30.790.
March copper closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off November’s
low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the 75%
retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 374.08 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 356.88 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 371.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the
aforementioned decline crossing at 374.08. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 363.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 356.88.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee close lower on Monday and the low-range close set the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 15.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
March renews the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 12.90
is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last
Monday’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week’s decline,
November’s low crossing at 23.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the
10-day moving average crossing at 24.48 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Monday and the low-range close set the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews
the decline off October’s high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011
rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 20.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
March cotton closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March renews the rally off November’s low, October’s high crossing at 76.39 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
72.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March Corn closed down 7 1/4-cents at 7.30.
March corn closed lower on Monday as it extends last Friday’s breakout below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.44 1/2. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. However, trading is likely to be subdued ahead of the release of this
months USDA supply-demand report due to be released tomorrow morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is
possible near-term. If March extends today’s decline, November’s low crossing
at 7.14 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.52 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 7.67 1/2. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 7.75 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at
7.25 1/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at 7.14 1/4.
March wheat closed down 12 1/4-cents at 8.48 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Monday as it renews the decline off the
late-November high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off the late-November high, November’s
low crossing at 8.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 8.67 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
If March renews the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at
8.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-November high
crossing at 8.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.95.
First support is today’s low crossing at 8.46 3/4. Second support is November’s
low crossing at 8.45.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 9.03 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews
the decline off the late-November high, November’s low crossing at 8.92 1/2 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
9.15 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.15 3/4. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 9.39. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at
8.98 1/2. Second support is November’s low crossing at 8.92 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 7-cents at 9.27.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends last week’s
trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Tuesday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March renews the decline off the late-November high, November’s
low crossing at 9.16 1/2 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally
off November’s low, November’s high crossing at 9.74 1/4 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.57. Second
resistance is November’s high crossing at 9.74 1/4. First support is November’s
low crossing at 9.16 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 8.88 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans closed up 2 1/2-cents at 14.74 3/4.
January soybeans closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January
extends the rally off November’s low, the reaction high crossing at 15.23 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.34 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 14.98 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 15.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.34
1/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at 13.72 1/4.
January soybean meal closed up $2.00 at $444.90.
January soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last
Friday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 467.50 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 432.40 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 452.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 467.70. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 432.40. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 416.70.
January soybean oil closed up 2-pts. at 51.15.
January soybean closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January
renews the rally off November’s low, the 50% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 53.13 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.41 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing
at 51.85. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 53.13. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 49.41. Second support is November’s low crossing at
46.89.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.45 at $83.92.
February hogs closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidated some of the decline off November’s high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February
extends last week’s decline, November’s low crossing at 86.65 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.27 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
last Friday’s gap crossing at 84.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 86.27. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at
83.20. Second support is November’s low crossing at 86.65.
February cattle closed down $0.12 at 130.28.
February cattle closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off
November’s high, the reaction low crossing at 128.90 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.96 would temper
the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 130.96. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 132.90.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 128.90. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 128.15.
January feeder cattle closed up $1.00 at $149.77.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends last week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January
extends today’s rally, October’s high crossing at 150.80 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 145.05 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
149.85. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 150.80. First support
is the reaction low crossing at 145.05. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 144.34.
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T H A N K Y O U
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