E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the
rally off last week’s low. Today’s rally was triggered by this morning’s jobs
report that showed payrolls increased by 163,000, which was more than forecast
in July. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September extends the rally off last Wednesday’s low, the May 4th
gap crossing at 2686.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2599.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 2516.75 would confirm
that a trend change has taken place while opening the door for sideways to
lower prices near-term. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 2679.25.
Second resistance is the May 4th gap crossing at 2686.50. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2599.23. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 2516.50.
The September S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Friday U.S. payrolls
climbed in July, boosted by a pickup in employment at automakers, even as the
jobless rate unexpectedly rose to a five-month high, Labor Department figures
showed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 1356.32 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If September extends the rally off June’s low, May’s high
crossing at 1395.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 1390.50. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1395.50. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1356.32. Second support is
last Wednesday’s low crossing at 1321.30.
The Dow closed sharply higher on Friday following a better than expected
jobs report and thereby renewed the rally off June’s low. Today’s high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. If the Dow
extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the May-June
decline crossing at 13,177 it the next upside objective. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 12,828 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 13,133. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at
13,177. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,828. Second
support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 12,521.
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September T-bonds closed down 1-26/32’s at 149-22.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower on Friday and is poised to renew the
decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
renews the decline off July’s high, the 25% retracement level of the March-July
rally crossing at 148-20 is the next downside target. If September renews this
year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project.
First resistance is July’s high crossing at 153-11. First support is today’s
low crossing at 149-08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the
March-July rally crossing at 148-20.
ENERGY MARKETS
September crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday in response to today’s
friendly jobs report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Monday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that additional strength is needed before these indicators
turn bullish again. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 50%
retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.28 is the next upside
target. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 86.84 would confirm that
a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree
decline into early August. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 93.25.
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing
at 94.28. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 86.84. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 84.05.
September heating oil closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below last week’s low crossing at 279.17
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for
additional weakness during the first half of August. If September renews the
rally off June’s low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline
crossing at 302.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08. Second
resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at
312.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.04. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 279.17.
September unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off
June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low,
the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 299.82 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.69
are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 299.82.
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline
crossing at 310.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
275.69. Second support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 265.51.
September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends Thursday’s
breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.979 confirming that a
short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging
and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing
at 2.706 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 3.083 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.083. Second resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.277. First support is today’s low crossing at
2.840. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.706.
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday erasing all of
Thursday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends
Thursday’s rally, July’s high crossing at 84.24 is the next upside target. If
September renews the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of the
April-July rally crossing at 81.64 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 83.61. Second resistance is July’s
high crossing at 84.24. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 82.22.
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at
81.64.
The September Euro closed sharply higher on Friday negating Thursday’s key
reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this
year’s decline, monthly support crossing at 118.74 is the next downside target.
If September renews the rally off July’s low, the reaction high crossing at
127.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing
at 124.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.03. First
support is July’s low crossing at 120.51. Second support is monthly support
crossing at 118.74.
The September British Pound closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some
of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If September extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.5456
is the next downside target. Closes above June’s high crossing at 1.5773 would
confirm an upside breakout of this summer’s trading range while opening the
door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline
crossing at 1.5891. First resistance is June’s high crossing at 1.5773. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at
1.5891. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5456. Second support is
July’s low crossing at 1.5390.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday negating yesterday’s key
reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If September renews this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at .9939 is
the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July’s low, the
reaction high crossing at .10588 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Thursday’s high crossing at .10338. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at crossing at .10588. First support is July’s low crossing at .10040.
Second support is monthly support crossing at .9939.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it resumes the
rally off June’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.68 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally
off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at
100.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
100.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this spring’s decline
crossing at 100.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
99.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.68.
The September Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Friday and the low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at .12715 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at .12895 is
the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at
.12839. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at .12895. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at .12715. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at .12514.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
October gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If October extends this week’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 1564.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 1626.90 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the
aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
1626.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1644.00. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 1564.50. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 1557.00.
September silver closed higher on Friday as it extends July’s trading range.
The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
extends this week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 26.425 is the next downside
target. If September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at
29.915 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 29.135. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 29.915. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 26.425. Second support is June’s low
crossing at 26.105.
September copper closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of the decline off July’s high. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s
high, June’s low crossing at 325.00 is the next downside target. Closes above
Tuesday’s high crossing at 345.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 345.70. Second
resistance is July’s high crossing at 355.65. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 326.50. Second support is June’s low crossing at 325.00.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
September coffee close higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the
decline off July’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If September
extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 16.08 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.00
would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the rally off
June’s low, April’s high crossing at 19.55 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off July’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September
extends the rally off June’s low, March’s high crossing at 24.55 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.79 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook.
October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July’s
high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July’s high,
the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 21.62 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.84 would
temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October cotton closed sharply higher on Friday while extending this summer’s
trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. October needs to close
above 75.00 or below 65.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of June’s trading
range and point the direction of the next trending move.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
December Corn closed up 11 3/4-cents at 8.08 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Friday as it ended a three-day correction off
Tuesday’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below last Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this
summer’s rally, 8.54 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 8.20 1/2. Second resistance is 8.54 1/2. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.73 1/2. Second support is
last Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2.
December wheat closed up 24 1/4-cents at 9.03 3/4.
December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.64 1/4
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for
additional weakness during the first half of August. If December renews the
rally off June’s low, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2 is the next upside
target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second resistance
is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 8.64 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.16 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 26 1/4-cents at 9.17 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some
of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this
week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.75 3/4 is the next downside
target. If December renews this summer’s rally, the May-2011 high crossing at
9.78 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 9.54. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2.
First support is the reaction crossing at 8.75 3/4. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 8.31.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 17 1/2-cents at 9.54.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Friday as
it consolidates some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins to
trade. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July’s high,
the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 9.19 1/2 is the
next downside target. Closes above Monday’s high crossing at 9.94 1/4 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s
high crossing at 9.94 1/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 10.34.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 9.32 1/4. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 9.19 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans closed up 12 1/4-cents at 16.28 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish warning bulls to use
caution, as additional consolidation is possible before November renews this
summer’s rally. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 15.36 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible
decline to this summer’s uptrend line crossing near 15.29. If November renews
this summer’s rally, psychological resistance crossing at 17.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 16.91 1/2.
Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.98 1/4. Second support is last
week’s low crossing at 15.36.
December soybean meal closed up $2.10 at $492.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year’s rally
into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 454.30 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 509.80. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 474.20. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 454.30.
December soybean oil closed up 52-pts. at 52.88.
December soybean closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidated some of the decline off July’s high. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends
the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 51.36 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.96 are
needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 53.96. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at
56.00. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 51.92. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 51.36.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.37 at $75.85.
October hogs closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of
this summer’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If October extends this week’s decline, weekly support crossing at 74.85 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.08
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 80.08. Second resistance is Tuesday’s high
crossing at 82.90. First support is today’s low crossing at 75.80. Second
support is weekly support crossing at 74.85.
October cattle closed down $0.72 at 124.37.
October cattle closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
123.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends
the rally off this month’s low, May’s high crossing at 127.05 is the next
upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 126.45. Second
resistance is May’s high crossing at 127.05. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 123.24. Second support is July’s low crossing at 119.77.
October feeder cattle closed down $1.90 at $140.12.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday while extending the trading
range of the past two weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.91 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this summer’s
decline, weekly support crossing at 132.66 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.91. Second resistance
is the 38% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 147.97. First
support is July’s low crossing at 138.30. Second support is weekly support
crossing at 132.66.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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WINNERS
BCX.N13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Jul 2013 50.50 2.25 +4.66
NX.Y$$ NONFAT DRY MILK-GRADE EXTRA Cash 14.0 0.5 +3.70
KW.U12 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Sep 2012 896 27 +3.11
SI.Z12 SILVER Dec 2012 27.882 0.808 +2.98
PLZ.U12 POLISH ZLOTY Sep 2012 0.3029 0.0085 +2.89
W.U12 WHEAT Sep 2012 889.5 24.5 +2.83
GI.U12 S&P GSCI Sep 2012 645.0 17.5 +2.79
YW.Z12 WHEAT (MINI) Dec 2012 903.75 24.25 +2.76
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1039.36 27.51 +2.72
GH RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX 453.44 10.86 +2.45
LOSERS
BCX.F13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Jan 2013 26.00 -2.75 -9.57
LH.V12 LEAN HOGS Oct 2012 75.850 -2.375 -3.03
FC.J13 FEEDER CATTLE Apr 2013 150.70 -2.30 -1.51
US.Z12 T-BONDS Dec 2012 150.50000 -2.09375 -1.37
CSI.U12 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Sep 2012 2.019 -0.026 -1.27
LB.H13 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 2013 299 -2 -0.66
LC.V12 LIVE CATTLE Oct 2012 124.375 -0.725 -0.58
TY.U12 10 YEAR T-NOTES Sep 2012 133.906250 -0.718750 -0.53
C.Z13 CORN Dec 2013 637.75 -1.25 -0.20
ED.U16 EURODOLLAR Sep 2016 98.425 -0.125 -0.13
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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WINNERS
CFFC COMMUNITY FINANCIAL 5.53 1.63 +41.79
NILE BLUE NILE 32.0000 8.2500 +34.74
MELI MERCADOLIBRE 82.52 16.00 +24.05
MXL MAXLINEAR 5.62 1.03 +22.44
MX MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR 12.27 1.96 +19.01
GFF GRIFFON 9.91 1.56 +18.68
PRO PROS HOLDINGS 15.12 2.37 +18.59
UEIC UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS 14.64 2.12 +16.93
LNKD LINKEDIN 108.51 15.00 +16.04
OPEN OPENTABLE 39.55 5.40 +15.81
LOSERS
ZIP ZIPCAR 6.720 -3.910 -36.78
MCP MOLYCORP 11.455 -4.615 -28.72
ZAGG ZAGG 8.3002 -2.3998 -22.43
MTSI M/A-COM TECH 13.12 -3.59 -21.48
SCOR COMSCORE 12.21 -3.24 -20.97
MCP.PR.A MOLYCORP 36.350 -9.332 -20.43
HNT HEALTH NET 18.36 -4.34 -19.12
OMPI OBAGI MEDICAL PRODUCTS 12.1700 -2.8300 -18.87
ACTV ACTIVE NETWORK 11.74 -2.21 -15.84
DLB DOLBY LABORATORIES 30.665 -5.135 -14.34
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T H A N K Y O U
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