retracement

Commerzbank #currencies outlook 24/09/2014

  • Euro/dollar is consolidating, initial resistance is offered by its downtrend, this is today located at $1.2896.
  • We note the daily RSI has diverged quite significantly on the move and the risk has increased for a break above the downtrend and for a deeper retracement into the $1.3030/1.3155 band to be seen prior to further losses.
  • The 4 month downtrend is located at $1.3248 and while below here our bearish outlook remain entrenched.
  • Longer term we target the $1.2755 July 2013 low and the $1.2661 November 2012 low shorter term. Longer term target remains the 200 month MA at $1.2208.
  • Dollar/yen has eased back to and is currently eroding the very accelerated uptrend at 108.54 yen and we suspect is vulnerable to a corrective move lower.
  • The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting a retracement towards 106.40 ahead of further gains presently.
  • Beyond this the market remains capable of gains to the 110.67 August 2008 high.
  • Directly above here lies the 50 percent retracement of the entire move down from the 1998 peak at 111.47 and we would allow for some profit taking in this vicinity.
  • We have additional support at 106.81– Sept 16 low)– and a support line drawn from the August low at 105.30.
  • USD/CHF is seeing a small correction lower.
  • A large divergence on its daily RSI has been seen but this has already neutralised.
  • Currently we would allow for some consolidation only.
  • We note the TD perfected set up on the weekly chart, which also suggests that we may see some profit taking.
  • Dips lower will find initial support offered by the accelerated uptrend at 0.9332 francs.
  • A move below here is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure for a slide back to 0.9295/.9210 (23.6 percent and 38.2 percent retracement).
  • While above the 0.9332 accelerated uptrend scope remains for a move to 0.9595, the 78.6 percent retracement of the move down from the market has recently charted a weekly close above .9236 – i.e. above the 200 month MA and above the 29 year downtrend.
  • Longer term we target 0.9840, the 2013 high.
  • GBP/USD is attempting to recover very near term.
  • We are viewing near term strength as corrective.
  • The charts are indicating that we will see failure circa $1.6565 and ahead of $1.6644/46 – the September high and the 200 month MA.
  • This together with the 200 day ma at $1.6689 is expected to cap the topside.
  • Support is offered initially by the short term uptrend at $1.6329 – failure here should concentrate efforts on $1.6290 and $1.6160 ahead of the $1.6053 recent low.
  • Longer term we look for losses back to 1.6007/00 (200 week MA and 50 percent retracement of the move up from 2013) then $1.5721 the 61.8 percent retracement of the move from 2013.
Source: FxWire Pro

Forexstreet.net Newsletter: A Selection of The Best Blogs of The Day

FOREXSTREET.NET WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
The FXstreet.com Forex Community

 

Morning everyone…. After a few hectic weeks, it seems that things are starting to roll again in our small but fast growing community.

I am delighted to share with you some of the best blog posts written today. We had so many that it was difficult to just pick a few, but here you have a great selection to choose from:

 

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 27.06.2013

Posted by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 27, 2013 at 7:00am 1 Comment 5 Likes

Posted by Tahir Khan on June 27, 2013 at 7:24am 7 Comments

Posted by Martin Kay on June 27, 2013 at 7:15am

Posted by Daologic on June 27, 2013 at 7:09am 7 Comments 1 Like

Posted by sasoforex on June 27, 2013 at 2:39am

Posted by Brian Twomey on June 27, 2013 at 1:41am 1 Like

Posted by Haitham653 on June 27, 2013 at 6:13am 1 Comment

Posted by Brian Twomey on June 26, 2013 at 4:33pm 8 Comments 6 Likes

US equities continue advancing after recent GDP data

2013-06-26 13:57 GMT | FXStreet.com
FXstreet.com (New York) – The US stock market continued its retracement Wednesday, having been given an impetus of mixed US data.

Earlier today in the United States, Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1) came in at only +1.8%, missing expectations of +2.4%. Moreover, the Gross Domestic Product Price Index was reported at +1.3%, beating estimates of +1.1%. Finally, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) grew +1.3% in Q1, matching projections.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.83% as it settles in region of 33575.42, up +27.91 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1601.79, ascending +13.72 points or +0.86% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved lower at the opening, trading in the zone of 14885.67, presently +0.85% after a movement of +125.36 points.

Sectors are all higher at the opening, however the Telecoms and Healthcare sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, rising +1.12% and +1.16% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1236.18 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $18.80 per oz. Wednesday.

Flash: Pre FOMC highs for EUR and GBP are technically significant – BBH

Flash: Pre FOMC highs for EUR and GBP are technically significant – BBH
2013-06-24 07:04 GMT | FXStreet.com
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman believes that technically, the highs the euro and sterling recorded before the FOMC announcement are significant.

He begins by noting that they mark the end of the correction off the year’s lows set in late March by sterling in early April by the euro. Further, the euro overshot by a little the 61.8% retracement of the decline seen from the start of the year, while sterling stopped a little shy. He sees that both upside corrections unfolded in a three-leg sequence, which is common for counter-trend moves.

Chandler believes that the correction is over and the dollar’s underlying uptrend is resuming, and while there is some risk of near-term consolidation, he expects the dollar to make new highs for the year against the European currency complex. He writes, “Recovery upticks in the euro will likely be capped in the $1.3220-60 range, while sterling’s bounce will likely be limited by the $1.5500-50 area. On the downside, the next target for the euro is $1.3060 and then $1.2975. The trend line drawn off the early April and mid-May lows comes in near $1.2850 at the end of next week.”

Weak Bounces = Smart Money Selling – 11/14/2012

Kevin Cook here one more day for Steve…

Last week after the election, I proposed we would know soon enough if institutional investors saw value or fear in shares near the 200-day moving average. While fear, as measured by the VIX and the size of the daily ranges, is definitely on the low side, clearly the big and smart money is cautious and waiting.

Since the President and the Speaker are not meeting until Friday to discuss business, it has become “sell the rallies” mode for pros. And Tuesday actually started out pretty good, with the S&P futures testing 1365 again in the pre-market, roughly the 50% retracement of the June to September rally.

Which Way is the Risk: Missing 1,450 or Holding to 1,300?

But the important 1,390 level has been the capper now in 3 out of 3 sessions and today’s S&P close of 1375 is the lowest since August 2, when we closed at 1,365. It looks like the past 3 days may have just been a rest stop before 1,350. And a volume and volatility spike could be right around the corner.

Bottom line: Unless we get some miraculous news, it seems the short-term tide is leaning toward further selling this week. With so many eyes on the exits, and so many wishing they’d get one more chance to sell above 1,400, the risk is definitely not to the upside.

Best,

Kevin Cook,
Senior Stock Strategist, Zacks Investment Research