KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 28, 2012
8:30 AM ET. Aug Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Personal Spending (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (previous 0%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.3%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (expected +0.1; previous 0%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.6%)
9:45 AM ET. Sept ISM-Chicago Business Survey – Chicago PMI
Employment Index (previous 57.1)
New Orders Index (previous 54.8)
Prices Paid Index (previous 57)
Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 52.5; previous 53)
Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 49.9)
9:55 AM ET. Sept Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 79.5; previous 74.3)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 65.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.6)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 88.7)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this
week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing
at 2707.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 2829.35 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2829.35. Second
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 2871.75. First support is the 25%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 2764.62. Second
support is the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at
2707.79.
The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight and remains poised to extend
this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday’s low
crossing at 1424.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and
would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the
rally off June’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1472.56 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1467.50. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1472.56. First support is
Wednesday’s low crossing at 1424.50. Second support is the 25% retracement
level of the June-September rally crossing at 1414.52.
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December T-bonds were higher overnight and it testing the July-September
downtrend line crossing near 150-04. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Multiple closes above
the July-September downtrend line crossing near 150-04 would confirm a trend
change while opening the door for a possible test of this month’s high crossing
at 151-29. First resistance is the July-September downtrend line crossing near
150-04. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 151-29. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-10. Second support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 147-22.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
November crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If November extends this month’s decline, the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.87 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.71. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 94.87. First support is the 50% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 89.79. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last
week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rebound off last
week’s low, the reaction high crossing at 321.47 is the next upside target. If
November renews the decline off this month’s high, the 38% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 298.64 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 321.47. Second resistance is this
month’s high crossing at 326.33. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing
at 302.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-September
rally crossing at 298.64.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight and poised to extend the rally
off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week’s rally,
March’s high crossing at 298.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 282.92 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 296.54. Second
resistance is March’s high crossing at 298.84. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 282.91. Second support is last Wednesday’s low
crossing at 270.29.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s rally, July’s
high crossing at 3.407 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3.051 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.317. Second
resistance is July’s high crossing at 3.407. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 3.090. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 3.051.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally
off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
80.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December
renews the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at 78.55 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
80.00. Second resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 80.08. First support
is this month’s low crossing at 78.72. Second support is weekly support
crossing at 78.55.
The December Euro was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.89 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July’s low,
the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 132.52 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 132.52. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of
this year’s decline crossing at 135.32. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 128.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
127.68.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading
range of the past two-week’s. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.6112 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If December renews the rally off June’s low, the 87% retracement level
of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 1.6330 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1.6304. Second resistance is the
87% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 1.6330. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1.6133. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.6112.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the
decline off this month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10664 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the 75% retracement level
of this year’s decline crossing at .10962 is the next upside target. First
resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
.10816. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year’s decline
crossing at .10962. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10664. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10430.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.97. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 100.26 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
102.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is this
month’s high crossing at 103.59. Second resistance is the July 2011 high
crossing at 104.53. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 101.23. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 100.26.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates
some of the rally off last Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
December extends the rally off last Wednesday’s low, this month’s high crossing
at .12977 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, September needs
to close above .12977 or below .12412 to confirm a breakout of this summer’s
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First
resistance is the overnight high crossing at .12838. Second resistance is this
month’s high crossing at .12977. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing
at .12631. Second support is August’s low crossing at .12565.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
October gold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Wednesday’s
low crossing at 1735.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
October extends the rally off May’s low, February’s high crossing at 1799.50 is
the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at
1786.80. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 1799.50. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1735.80. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 1691.20.
December silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the
past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday’s low
crossing at 33.360 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and
could open the door for additional weakness into early-October. If December
renews this summer’s rally, the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline
crossing at 36.221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s
high crossing at 35.260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 36.221. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
33.360. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 32.510.
December copper was higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 369.35 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August’s low,
the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 392.60 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 383.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of
this year’s decline crossing at 392.60. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 369.35. Second support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
368.05.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: March sugar closed up 2 points at 20.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Sugar bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage.
December coffee closed up 495 points at 174.40 cents.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for coffee today as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Coffee bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field.
December cocoa closed up $14 at $2,483 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today on short covering. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for cocoa today as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Cocoa bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, prices have been trending lower for
three weeks.
December cotton closed up 17 points at 71.19 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and saw
tepid short covering. The key “outside markets” were in a
bullish posture for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index
was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Cotton bears
have the near-term technical advantage.
November orange juice closed up 165 points at $1.1465
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some
short covering and bargain hunting. Bears still have the
near-term technical advantage.
November lumber futures closed up $1.30 at $271.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Prices hit a fresh nearly three-month low early
on. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August’s
high. Continued fund liquidation ahead of the end of month/end of quarter later
this morning along with a lack of fresh supportive news continues to weigh on
the corn market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December
extends the decline off August’s high, the 50% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 6.73 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.62 3/4 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.37 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.62 3/4 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 7.05. Second
support is the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 6.73
3/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extended Thursday’s breakout below
August’s low crossing at 8.57 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Thursday’s
breakout below August’s low crossing at 8.57 1/4 marked a trading range
breakout and opens the door for a test of the 38% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 8.29 1/2 later this fall. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 9.26 1/4. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 8.49
1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 8.29 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 1/4-cents at 8.78 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends this week’s decline, August’s low crossing at 8.74 1/2 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.08
would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 9.08. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 9.49 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at 8.74 1/2.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.31.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight and challenging the lower
boundary of this summer’s trading range crossing at 9.12. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. December needs to close above 9.84 1/2 or below
9.12 to confirm a breakout of the August-September trading range and point the
direction of the next trending move. First resistance is August’s high crossing
at 9.84 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 10.34. First support
is the reaction low crossing at 9.25. Second support is August’s low crossing
at 9.12.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were steady overnight as it consolidates some of this
month’s decline. This morning’s quarterly grain stocks report holds the keys to
near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If November extends this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at
15.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 16.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.15 1/2. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.78 1/4. First support is
Thursday’s low crossing at 15.57 1/2. Second support is July’s low crossing at
15.36.
December soybean meal was higher due to light short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If December extends this month’s decline, the 38%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 469.00 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 506.70
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 486.50. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 506.70. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at
470.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 469.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this month’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off
this month’s high, the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 51.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 55.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.13. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.59. First support is the
overnight low crossing at 51.69. Second support is the 75% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 51.13.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.42 at
$125.17 today. Prices closed near the session high and saw
short covering after hitting another fresh nine-week low
early on today. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was lower
and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Serious near-term
chart damage has been inflicted in cattle futures this
week. Cattle bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage.
November feeder cattle closed up $0.12 at $147.32 today.
Tepid short covering was featured today. Near-term
technical damage has been inflicted this week. A gentle
two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been
negated. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field.
December lean hogs closed down $0.77 at $73.60 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The hog
market this week is pressured by sharp losses in the live
cattle futures market this week. Hog market bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent
upside price action does hint that a market bottom is in
place.
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T H A N K Y O U
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Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last five years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.
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