Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-In our view, commodity markets have processed information about geopolitical risks fairly efficiently. They have tended to avoid catch-all generalised reactions to the overall risk level. Instead, the market focus has been on the likely short-term effects of each political situation on commodity fundamentals, conditioned on the level of inventories and the initial supply-and-demand balance.
-Within this specific, commodity-by-commodity response to risk, gold has not acted as a lightning rod for risk-averse investors. Indeed, gold prices have been stagnant – while they have stabilised after the steady fall of 2013, neither Middle East tensions nor Russia’s dispute with Ukraine have led to a significant upside breakout.
-Geopolitical events have not generated a sufficient flow of investors back into gold to compensate for the heavy outflows of 2013. After an initial rally in Q1, gold has spent most of this year in the USD 1,250-1,350 range, leaving most of the ground lost in 2013 unrecovered
Source: FxWire Pro
commodity markets
Thursday NAS -7.06 S&P -0.79 Gold +3.17 DOW +18.97 USD +0.315 CRB -1.43
E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed again today in more quiet trading. Stock
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The much-anticipated HSBC China
manufacturing PMI was released Thursday and came in at a
reading of 47.8 in the latest month, which was the eleventh
straight month of contraction in China’s manufacturing
sector. Asian stock markets fell on the China news, while
raw commodity markets, including gold and silver, also saw
some selling pressure due to the weak China data. The
market place is also uneasy regarding a serious territorial
dispute between China and Japan regarding ownership of a
small chain of islands. A closely watched Spanish
government debt auction went off well Thursday amid good
investor demand. The recent pledge by the European Central
Bank to backstop the troubled EU nations’ debt auctions has
injected some stability into the EU financial system.
However, offsetting that positive EU news was more
generally dour economic data coming out of Europe Thursday.
The Chinese premiere on Thursday visited EU leaders and
told them his country will continue to buy European Union
government bonds.
_____________________________________________________________________
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 7/32 at 146 21/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more
short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a fresh
four-month low on Monday. Prices are still in a choppy two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.31 a barrel at
$92.61 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit another fresh six-week low early on. Short covering was
seen today. The bulls have faded badly this week as a 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated
Wednesday. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field.
November heating oil closed up 526 points at $3.0950 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh six-week low early on. Bulls have faded this week. A
10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated
this week.
November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 554 points at
$2.7835 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering. A 2.5-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart has been negated this week.
November natural gas closed up 3.4 cents at $2.979 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have
faded recently and are on a level near-term technical
playing field with the bears.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 94 points at 1.2980 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Profit taking was featured.
The Euro bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart.
The December Japanese yen closed up 17 points at 1.2783
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 1.2977.
The December Swiss franc closed down 63 points at 1.0733
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. The Swissy bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December Canadian dollar closed down 22 points at
1.0221 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart.
The December British pound closed down 18 points at 1.6206
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw mild
profit taking today. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily chart.
The December U.S. dollar index closed up 36 points at 79.49
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering
in a bear market was featured. The bears still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: December gold futures closed down $0.40 an ounce
at $1,771.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw mild profit taking and chart consolidation.
Prices Wednesday hit a 6.5-month high. Gains in gold were
limited by solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today. The
gold market bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.
December silver futures closed up $0.132 an ounce at $34.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Silver
bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Prices are
in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
December N.Y. copper closed down 500 points at 376.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. A stronger U.S. dollar index
today also lent to selling pressure in copper. Prices
Wednesday hit a 4.5-month high. Copper bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: March sugar closed up 23 points at 19.92 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Sugar was able to make
gains today despite a bearish sugar production report out
of Brazil and a stronger U.S. dollar index. This does hint
that sugar has put in a market low. But at present sugar
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December coffee closed down 580 points at 168.60 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure coffee today. Coffee bears now have the slight
near-term technical advantage.
December cocoa closed down $23 at $2,515 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh four-
week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index helped to pressure
cocoa today. Cocoa bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are now fading a bit.
December cotton closed down 114 points at 75.27 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
stronger U.S. dollar index helped to pressure cotton today.
Cotton bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a gentle 3.5-month old uptrend on
the daily bar chart.
November orange juice closed down 90 points at $1.2570
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Gains in FCOJ were limited by the solid gains in
the U.S. dollar index today. FCOJ bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Traders will
continue to watch for any fresh storms brewing in the
Atlantic.
November lumber futures closed up $1.50 at $274.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
GRAINS: December corn futures were down 12 1/4 cents at
7.44 1/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low. The market was pressured in part from a
stronger U.S. dollar index today and harvest pressure.
Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low. The corn bulls have
faded badly recently. The corn bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been
trending lower for the past five weeks.
November soybeans were down 45 3/4 cents at $16.23 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low, hit a fresh six-week low and were scoring a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The
stronger U.S. dollar index and harvest pressure helped to
sink the soybean market today. Soybean bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly
recently.
December soybean meal was down $15.50 at $484.80 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low, hit a
fresh six-week low and were scoring a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart today. The meal bulls have
faded badly recently. Meal bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage.
December bean oil was down 119 points at 55.06 cents in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
scoring a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart. Bean oil bulls have faded badly recently. Bulls
and bears are now on a level near-term technical playing
field.
December Chicago SRW wheat was down 2 cents at $8.79 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Given the
selling pressure in corn and soybeans today, wheat fared
pretty well. Trading remains choppy and sideways at higher
price levels. Wheat bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
December K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 1/4 cents at $9.08 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid
choppy trading.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.97 at
$128.12 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low today. The solidly higher U.S. dollar
index did help to pressure the cattle market today. Cattle
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, but need to show fresh power soon. Prices are
still in a choppy, nearly three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart.
November feeder cattle closed down $0.77 at $147.77 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Feeder cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart.
December lean hogs closed down $0.47 at $74.25 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another
fresh four-week high early on. The stronger U.S. dollar did
prompt some selling pressure in hogs today. Hog market
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, recent upside price action does hint that a market
bottom is in place.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
RR.F13 ROUGH RICE Jan 2013 15.495 0.060 +0.39
SI.H13 SILVER Mar 2013 34.760 0.093 +0.27
US.Z12 T-BONDS Dec 2012 146.71875 0.28125 +0.19
LOSERS
SM.V12 SOYBEAN MEAL Oct 2012 482.3 -17.4 -3.48
S.H13 SOYBEANS Mar 2013 1575.75 -51.25 -3.15
YK.X12 SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2012 1618.75 -50.75 -3.04
BO.V12 SOYBEAN OIL Oct 2012 54.63 -1.20 -2.15
CSI.Q13 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Aug 2013 2.091 -0.044 -2.06
BCX.V12 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Oct 2012 43.25 -0.75 -1.70
YC.Z12 CORN (MINI) Dec 2012 746.0 -10.5 -1.39
C.Z12 CORN Dec 2012 746.75 -9.75 -1.29
LC.Z12 LIVE CATTLE Dec 2012 128.150 -0.950 -0.74
LH.Z12 LEAN HOGS Dec 2012 74.200 -0.525 -0.70
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
LIVE LIVEDEAL 6.6200 1.2600 +23.51
NIHD NII HOLDINGS 8.2102 1.2202 +17.46
LVNAR LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP 13.36 1.78 +15.37
QCOR QUESTCOR PHARMACEUTICALS 30.3211 3.9711 +15.07
SURG SYNERGETICS USA 5.09 0.60 +13.36
APOG APOGEE ENTERPRISES 19.50 1.88 +10.67
CYCC CYCLACEL PHARMACEUTICALS 5.60 0.46 +8.95
CBEY CBEYOND 9.855 0.805 +8.90
UNAM UNICO AMERICAN 11.000 0.800 +7.84
IEC IEC ELECTRONICS 6.87 0.45 +7.01
LOSERS
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS 24.0292 -5.4500 -18.63
IHS IHS 94.73 -20.52 -17.80
XPO XPO LOGISTICS 12.890 -2.710 -17.37
CLC CLARCOR 43.79 -5.78 -11.66
JCP JC PENNEY 25.83 -3.26 -11.21
BBBY BED BATH & BEYOND 62.0613 -6.7287 -9.78
GMCR GREEN MNTN COFFEE ROASTER 27.81 -3.00 -9.74
NSC NORFOLK SOUTHERN 66.07 -6.62 -9.11
CQP CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS 23.979 -2.271 -8.65
MLHR HERMAN MILLER 18.58 -1.73 -8.52
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________
Wednesday NAS +5.20 DOW +13.32 Gold +0.71 S&P +1.73 CRB -3.13 USD -0.081
E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today in quieter trading. Stock index bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
Bank of Japan overnight joined the crowd of central banks
further easing their monetary policies, as the BOJ
announced an aggressive monetary stimulus program amid what
it says is a global economic slowdown. The BOJ move
provided an early boost to many raw commodity markets
Wednesday, including the precious metals. Asian stock
markets also rose on the BOJ news. Meantime, a Chinese
finance ministry researcher said the risks for inflation in
China exceed the need for more economic stimulus. There is
a slew of fresh economic data coming out of China on
Thursday. The market place worries the China economic data
may show significant weakness. The Chinese economic data
Thursday looks to be the most important data of the week
for the market place.
_____________________________________________________________________
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 17/32 at 146 17/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short
covering after hitting a fresh four-month low on Monday.
Bulls have faded recently. Prices are still in a choppy
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $3.36 a barrel
at $92.26 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh six-week low. Heavy profit taking and
technical selling were featured today. A bearish DOE weekly
energy stocks report also provided selling pressure. The
bulls have faded badly this week as a 2.5-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
November heating oil closed down 847 points at $3.0417
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. Bulls have faded badly this week. A 10-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated
this week.
November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 858 points at
$2.7234 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh six-week low. A 2.5-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart has been negated this week.
November natural gas closed up 0.3 cents at $2.964 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded and
are on a level near-term technical playing field with the
bears.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 22 points at 1.3070 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The Euro bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December Japanese yen closed up 82 points at 1.2771
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart, in the wake of the BOJ stimulus package. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and regained
upside momentum today.
The December Swiss franc closed up 21 points at 1.0795
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Friday
hit a three-month high. The Swissy bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December Canadian dollar closed up 12 points at 1.0246
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December British pound closed down 15 points at 1.6220
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Prices
Monday hit a 13-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily chart.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 21 points at
79.13 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: December gold futures closed up $1.10 an ounce
at $1,772.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
did hit a fresh 6.5-month high early on. Gains in gold were
limited by another sharp drop in crude oil prices today.
Gold is also this week seeing some profit taking and chart
consolidation. The gold market bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage.
December silver futures closed down $0.078 an ounce at
$34.635 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and
saw mild profit taking after hitting a 6.5-month high of
$35.10 on Tuesday. Silver bulls are in still in firm near-
term technical command. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
December N.Y. copper closed up 170 points at 380.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh 4.5-month high early on today. Copper bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: October sugar closed down 33 points at 19.11
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today. The sharp drop in crude oil prices spilled over into
selling pressure in sugar today. Sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
downside momentum this week.
December coffee closed down 280 points at 174.70 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sharp drop
in crude oil prices spilled over into selling pressure in
coffee today. Coffee bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field.
December cocoa closed up $27 at $2,559 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high and saw some short covering and
bargain hunting. Cocoa bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
December cotton closed up 39 points at 76.41 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The sharp drop
in crude oil prices limited buying interest in cotton
today. Cotton bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a gentle 3.5-month old uptrend on
the daily bar chart.
November orange juice closed up 30 points at $1.2680 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Gains in FCOJ were
limited by the big drop in crude oil prices today. FCOJ
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders will continue to watch for any fresh storms brewing
in the Atlantic.
November lumber futures closed up $1.00 at $274.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
GRAINS: December corn futures were up 13 cents at 7.53
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
on some short covering and perceived bargain hunting.
Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low. The corn bulls have
faded recently. The corn bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower
for the past five weeks.
November soybeans were up 29 cents at $16.69 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
saw short covering and bargain hunting after prices Tuesday
hit a four-week low. Soybean bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage but have faded recently.
December soybean meal was up $9.10 at $501.10 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting after prices
hit a four-week low on Tuesday. The meal bulls have faded
recently. Meal bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
December bean oil was up 71 points at 56.04 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bulls have faded
recently.
December Chicago SRW wheat was up 15 3/4 cents at $8.79 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Short covering and bargain hunting were featured today
after prices hit a four-week low on Tuesday. Trading
remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Wheat
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December K.C. HRW wheat was up 15 1/2 cents at $9.04 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage
amid choppy trading.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.22 at
$129.10 today. Prices closed near the session high today on
a corrective bounce and short covering. The big drop in
crude oil prices did limit the upside in cattle futures
today. Cattle bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, nearly three-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
November feeder cattle closed down $0.27 at $148.55 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Feeder cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart.
December lean hogs closed up $0.52 at $74.72 today. Prices
closed near the session high and hit another fresh four-
week high today. Hog market bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, recent good upside
price action does hint that a market bottom is in place.
______________________________
______________________________________________
E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
BCX.Z13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Dec 2013 65.25 4.75 +7.85
KW.Z12 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Dec 2012 910.00 21.00 +2.36
YC.Z12 CORN (MINI) Dec 2012 756.5 16.5 +2.23
C.Z12 CORN Dec 2012 756.25 16.25 +2.19
YW.Z12 WHEAT (MINI) Dec 2012 881.5 18.0 +2.09
KB.Y$$ CHEESE-BLOCKS Cash 1950 40 +2.09
W.Z12 WHEAT Dec 2012 881.5 18.0 +2.08
S.F13 SOYBEANS Jan 2013 1669.25 30.00 +1.83
YK.X12 SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2012 1669.5 29.5 +1.80
RB.Y$$ CHEESE-BARRELS Cash 1905.0 32.5 +1.74
LOSERS
BCX.U13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Sep 2013 68.50 -6.25 -8.36
GI.V12 S&P GSCI Oct 2012 655.00 -15.00 -2.24
HO.M14 HEATING OIL Jun 2014 2.8393 -0.0645 -2.22
FC.Q13 FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2013 157.25 -0.95 -0.60
CSI.X12 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Nov 2012 2.207 -0.009 -0.41
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1128.18 -1.25 -0.11
GH RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX 492.42 -0.45 -0.09
LC.V12 LIVE CATTLE Oct 2012 126.350 -0.050 -0.04
DJ.Z12 DJ INDUSTRIAL AVG Dec 2012 13497 -2 -0.01
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____________________________________________________________________________
E X T R E M E S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________
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WINNERS
BVSN BROADVISION 10.6800 2.5500 +31.37
CYCC CYCLACEL PHARMACEUTICALS 5.12 1.08 +26.73
CG CENTERRA GOLD INC 11.97 1.73 +16.89
ACHN ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS 9.41 1.31 +16.17
CKG CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP 9.46 1.25 +15.23
CHPGF CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP 9.7162 1.2762 +15.12
LIVE LIVEDEAL 5.3600 0.6900 +14.78
NAK NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERAL 5.03 0.63 +14.32
GRPN GROUPON INC 5.34 0.65 +13.86
CQB CHIQUITA BRANDS 7.320 0.870 +13.49
LOSERS
QCOR QUESTCOR PHARMACEUTICALS 25.91 -24.61 -48.71
BIOF BIOFUEL ENERGY 7.59 -1.31 -14.72
BONT BON-TON STORES 11.42 -1.54 -11.88
IDIX IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS 5.12 -0.52 -9.22
PPP PRIMERO MINING 5.13 -0.50 -8.88
CWEI CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY 53.90 -4.86 -8.27
GNF GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM CORP 5.59 -0.46 -7.60
AVG AVG TECHNOLOGIES 10.47 -0.78 -6.93
NANO NANOMETRICS 14.63 -1.06 -6.76
COA COASTAL CONTACTS INC 6.50 -0.46 -6.61
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________
Tuesday Gold +0.82 CRB +1.62 USD -0.517 DOW +69.07 S&P +4.48 NAS +1.36
E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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_______________________________________
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today. Stock index bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Focus of the market
place is on this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market
Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and also on a German
constitutional court ruling Wednesday on the validity of
the European Stability Mechanism. There was a last-minute
effort on Tuesday by some EU politicians to delay the court
ruling, but those efforts quickly failed and the ruling
will occur Wednesday. The market place expects the German
court to uphold the ESM measures. Dutch elections are also
slated for Wednesday. The FOMC meeting starts on Wednesday
and ends on Thursday with Fed Chairman Bernanke holding a
press conference. Last week’s downbeat U.S. jobs report
likely opened the door wider for a fresh U.S. monetary
stimulus announcement by the FOMC. Such would be at least
initially bullish for the stock and commodity markets. In
overnight news, Asian and European stock markets were
weaker but quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting and German court
ruling. Spanish and Italian bond yields have inched up this
week, but are still near multi-month lows and well below
6%.
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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 5/32 at 148 23/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls do still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 145 23/32.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
ENERGIES: October crude oil closed up $0.41 a barrel at
$96.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and closed at a fresh two-week high close. Crude oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-
month-old price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart, but just barely.
October heating oil closed up 202 points at $3.1870 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 205 points at
$3.0445 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
closed at a fresh five-month high close again today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart.
October natural gas closed up 18.5cents at $2.997 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Bulls gained fresh upside near-term
technical momentum today and now have the slight near-term
technical advantage.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 85 points at 1.2867 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-month high
today. The Euro bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart.
The December Japanese yen closed up 84 points at 1.2874
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh 13-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
The December Swiss franc closed up 85 points at 1.0666
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit a fresh nearly three-month high. The Swissy bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December Canadian dollar closed up 45 points at 1.0253
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh 13-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December British pound closed up 71 points at 1.6066
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit
another 3.5-month high today. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old uptrend on the daily chart.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 52 points at
80.00 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit
another fresh four-month low today. The bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: December gold futures closed up $3.70 an ounce
at $1,735.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for gold today
as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices
were firmer. The market is consolidating this week after
last week’s big gains. Gold prices are still in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold market
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
December silver futures closed down $0.068 an ounce at
$33.565 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
mild profit taking after prices Monday hit a five-month
high. Mild profit taking and a corrective pullback were
featured today. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was lower
and crude oil prices were firmer. That did limit selling
interest in silver today. Silver bulls are still in firm
near-term technical command.
December N.Y. copper closed up 55 points at 369.50 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh four-month high. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for copper today as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer.
Copper bulls have the near-term technical advantage and
have gained good upside technical momentum recently.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
SOFTS: October sugar closed steady at 19.43 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Yet,
sugar prices could not rally, which is a bearish clue.
Sugar bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a
market bottom is close at hand.
December coffee closed up 300 points at 176.65 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
four-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
coffee today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude
oil prices were firmer. More short covering and bargain
hunting buying were featured today. Bulls have suddenly
gained fresh upside technical momentum.
December cocoa closed down $23 at $2,630 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw more mild profit taking
after prices last week hit a 10-month high. Cocoa bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
December cotton closed down 70 points at 74.93 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for cotton today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Yet,
cotton sold off a bit, which is a bit bearish for cotton.
Still, cotton bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage, but need to show more power soon. Prices are in
a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
November orange juice closed down 275 points at $1.2410
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
more profit taking. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for FCOJ today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and
crude oil prices were firmer. Yet, prices sold off, which
is a bearish clue. FCOJ bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Traders will continue to watch
for any fresh storms brewing in the Atlantic.
November lumber futures closed up $2.30 at $275.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a two-month
low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $1.35 at
$127.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh five-month high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Cattle bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
some more upside momentum today.
October feeder cattle closed down $0.22 at $146.35 today.
Prices closed near the session low on mild profit taking.
Feeder cattle bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart.
October lean hogs closed up $0.15 at $72.72 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market after prices last Friday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.
GRAINS: December corn futures were down 6 cents at $7.77
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
and hit another fresh six-week low today. Profit taking was
featured. The key “outside markets” were bullish for corn
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were firmer. Yet, corn sold off, which is a bearish
clue. The corn bulls do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are fading amid seasonal harvest
pressure. Prices have been trending lower four the past
four weeks. Traders are now awaiting Wednesday morning’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report.
November soybeans were down 17 cents at $17.01 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh three-week low. Profit taking and position
evening were featured. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for soybeans today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Yet, soybeans sold
off, which is a bearish clue. Soybean bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit.
Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning’s monthly USDA
supply and demand report.
December soybean meal was down $4.10 at $515.30 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and hit a
fresh two-week low. Meal bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
December bean oil was down 75 points at 55.81 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bean oil bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but are now fading.
December Chicago SRW wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $8.84 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. The
key “outside markets” were bullish for wheat today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
firmer. Yet, the wheat market sold off, which is a bearish
clue. Wheat bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Traders are now awaiting Wednesday
morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
December K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 3/4 cents at $9.03 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $1.35 at
$127.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh five-month high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Cattle bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
some more upside momentum today.
October feeder cattle closed down $0.22 at $146.35 today.
Prices closed near the session low on mild profit taking.
Feeder cattle bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart.
October lean hogs closed up $0.15 at $72.72 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market after prices last Friday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.
______________________________
______________________________________________
E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
BCX.F13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Jan 2013 43.00 2.75 +6.83
NG.X12 NATURAL GAS Nov 2012 3.104 0.163 +5.54
CSI.Q13 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Aug 2013 2.057 0.042 +2.03
LC.V12 LIVE CATTLE Oct 2012 127.10 1.35 +1.07
LB.X12 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Nov 2012 275.5 2.3 +0.84
MP.Z12 MEXICAN PESO Dec 2012 0.076275 0.000425 +0.56
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1108.54 5.51 +0.50
RV RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX MINI 708.80 3.20 +0.45
FC.Q13 FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2013 157.2 0.7 +0.45
DJ.Z12 DJ INDUSTRIAL AVG Dec 2012 13215 58 +0.44
LOSERS
BCX.V13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Oct 2013 74.50 -3.50 -4.49
AA.Y$$ BUTTER-GRADE AA Cash 1820 -35 -1.89
LH.J13 LEAN HOGS Apr 2013 84.450 -1.325 -1.54
BO.H13 SOYBEAN OIL Mar 2013 56.37 -0.71 -1.24
S.X12 SOYBEANS Nov 2012 1699.50 -19.25 -1.12
YK.F13 SOYBEAN (MINI) Jan 2013 1700.75 -17.50 -1.02
C.K13 CORN May 2013 778.25 -6.00 -0.76
YC.Z12 CORN (MINI) Dec 2012 777.75 -5.50 -0.70
W.Z12 WHEAT Dec 2012 883.75 -6.00 -0.67
SM.Z12 SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2012 515.9 -3.5 -0.67
———————————————————————
Free Video Seminar – “Spotting breakouts that lead to trend reversals”
http://broadcast.ino.com/redirect/?linkid=1952
———————————————————————
____________________________________________________________________________
E X T R E M E S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/
WINNERS
WSB WSB HOLDINGS 5.360 2.440 +83.56
AXR AMREP 8.25 1.31 +18.88
HNU HB NYMEX NG BULL 13.93 1.45 +11.62
ANGI ANGIES LIST 10.93 1.04 +10.52
HSKA HESKA 8.82 0.83 +10.39
IMH IMPAC MTG HOLDINGS 8.10 0.76 +10.35
JAZZ JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS 47.84 4.28 +9.83
SDRXN SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC 111.469 9.530 +9.35
COA COASTAL CONTACTS INC 7.2 0.6 +9.09
SLCA US SILICA HOLDINGS 13.82 1.12 +8.82
LOSERS
BURBY BURBERRY GROUP 36.06 -7.90 -17.97
LRN K12 20.280 -3.180 -13.55
CENTA CENTRAL GARDEN & PET 11.4250 -1.4750 -11.43
HOTT HOT TOPIC 8.965 -0.915 -9.26
CENT CENTRAL GARDEN & PET 11.21 -1.10 -8.94
UNFI UNITED NATURAL FOODS 55.24 -5.19 -8.59
CIG ENERGY CO of MINAS 15.770 -1.420 -8.26
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS 66.57 -5.18 -7.22
OLBK OLD LINE BANCSHARES 10.200 -0.750 -6.85
MTSI M/A-COM TECH 11.18 -0.79 -6.60
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________
The Safest Way to Invest in Commodities
by Carl Delfeld, Investment U Senior Analyst
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
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I’ll never forget my first visit as a teenager to the commodity trading pit of Chicago’s Mercantile Exchange (CME). The swirling bright-colored jackets, the shouting and rapid hand signals (looked like arm wrestling to me)… it was captivating and reminded me of past family gatherings.
It was also the polar opposite of my later visit to the currency trading floor of JP Morgan at 1 Wall Street – row after row of white shirts hunched over computer screens and dry IMF statistics.
Commodities sure looked like more fun to me.
My image of commodity markets hasn’t changed all that much since. It’s a volatile and wild ride where even a tiny bit of new information affecting supply or demand can send prices spinning. Weather, transportation costs, economic forecasts, currency movements and many other factors go into how prices change minute to minute.
I approach commodities trading cautiously since expert traders focused all day on one commodity, for example wheat, get it wrong as often as they get it right.
Still, I have to admit, the idea of making or losing a pile of money in a very short time gets my blood pumping.
So how should you approach commodities and what should you do right now?
The Game Has Changed
Even a decade ago, most individual investors didn’t think of investing in commodities except through companies like Alcoa (NYSE: AA) for aluminum, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) for copper and Comstock Resources (NYSE: CRK) for natural gas.
But the game has changed.
Online brokerage accounts and the arrival of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and notes (ETNs) give individual investors the chance to get into the game with just the click of a mouse.
The choices are staggering:
- Coffee – iPath Coffee (NYSE: JO)
- Sugar – iPath Sugar ETN (NYSE: SGG)
- Lead – iPath Lead ETN (NYSE: LD)
- Nickel – iPath Nickel ETN (NYSE: JJN)
- Corn – Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: CORN)
- Grains – iPath Grains ETN (NYSE: JJG)
- Cotton – iPath Cotton ETN (NYSE: BAL)
- Tin – iPath Tin ETN (NYSE: JJT)
- Aluminum – iPath Aluminum ETN (NYSE: JJU)
- Silver – iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
- Oil – iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE: OIL)
- Palladium – ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: PALL)
- Natural gas – iPath Natural Gas ETN (NYSE: GAZ)
- Timber – Claymore Beacon Global Timber Index (NYSE: CUT)
- Livestock – iPath Livestock ETN (NYSE: COW)
The “Core-Explore” Commodity Strategy
Given the complexity and volatility involved in commodities, you must have an established strategy if you plan on having any success. So here’s an easy one:
Rule No. 1: Having a small allocation in a broad basket of commodities in your core portfolio makes a lot of sense.
This should make your overall portfolio less volatile and help preserve capital since commodities don’t usually move lockstep with stocks. In addition, raw materials provide you with a natural inflation hedge.
A great conservative play right now would be the PowerShares DB Agricultural ETF (NYSE: DBA). These agricultural commodities are down this year and tend to be less volatile than precious or industrial metals. In addition, the long-term bull story of a world population growing at a rate of 200,000 a day plus rising incomes driving higher food prices is very convincing.
To meet this growing demand, the World Bank estimates that farms worldwide will have to produce more food in the next 50 years than they did in the previous 10,000 years.
Here are the commodity weightings in this basket as of June 26:
- Soybean: 16.11%
- Corn: 14.17%
- Live Cattle: 12.39%
- Sugar: 10.97%
- Cocoa: 9.75%
- Coffee: 8.48%
- Lean Hogs: 8.25%
- Wheat: 6.71%
- Wheat (Kansas Wheat): 6.53%
- Cattle (Feeder Cattle): 4.45%
- Cotton: 2.19%
Rule No. 2: For your trading portfolio, explore for commodities that have pulled back sharply.
So far in 2012, the perception of a weakening world economy has driven many commodities lower. Industrial metals do well when the world economy is thriving. The concern that the world economy is slowing has hit them pretty hard in recent months.
This is exactly why you should be getting interested in these industrial metals. You want to get in when markets have pulled back and, even better, when they’re beginning to trend up. Keep an eye on the iPath Industrial Metals ETF (NYSE: JJM). Currently, JJM is trading almost 24% below its net asset value (NAV). The lower entry price gives you some downside protection, but remember to always have a sell stop in place in case markets move against you.
Now get out there and add some commodities to your global portfolio today.
Good Investing,
Carl Delfeld
Pelias' views 