Daily outlook for developed markets bond yields

Quotes from Nordea Markets: -German bond yields headed higher yesterday, with the 10-year yield rising by 3bp. The US bond market was more resilient and the 10-year yield ended the day close to unchanged. Core bonds yields are likely to reverse yesterday’s increases today, as geopolitical worries persist and equity market sentiment has become more wobbly. -Intra-Euro-zone spreads widened again, with large moves seen in Portuguese and Greek yields, the latter jumping by 25bp in the 10-year sector. The long rally in peripheral bonds has raised an increasing number of questions about how long the gains can continue. In short, even though more volatility will be in store going forward, the rally has probably not run its course yet.

Source: FxWire Pro

Daily outlook for developed markets bond yields

Quotes from Nordea Markets:

-Bond yields tried to rise yesterday on the back of a report showing wage pressures picking up in the US, but plunging equity markets soon brought bond yields back lower.

-The German 10-year yield ended the day lower by around 1.5bp, while the corresponding US yield was close to unchanged (but shorter US yields dropped).

-Intra-Euro-zone spreads saw mixed performance, with Portuguese spreads jumping on the back of more banking sector worries around Banco Espirito Santo, which is in need of more capital after heavy losses.

-Core bond yields are likely to head higher today on more news of wage pressures picking up in the US, but further equity weakness should limit the losses for bonds.

Quartz Daily Brief—Bank earnings, China’s new floor, Portugal’s deepening crisis, wearable computers for dogs

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Egyptians back on the streets? Supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi called for more protests on Friday to oppose his detention. Clashes between the military and protesters have killed around 90 people in the last week.

The BoJ will release its monthly report for July. The report is due a day after the central bank said Japan’s economy was recovering for the first time in 2.5 years. Not all parts of the country are feeling the benefits.

US banks report second-quarter profits. Healthy gains from trading and investment banking are anticipated. JP Morgan’s earnings are expected to rise to $1.42 per share on revenue of just under $25 billion, and Wells Fargo is expected to book a profit of 92 cents a share, but its revenue is expected to decline 6% year-on-year.

Status quo in Mexico. Mexican central bankers are expected to leave their official interest rates unchanged at 4%. Inflation is dropping toward the central bank’s 4% target ceiling, and some analysts expect rate cuts later in the year aimed at boosting Mexico’s economy.

While you were sleeping

China’s finance minister said he would accept slower growth. Speaking at a joint US-China dialogue, Lou Jiwei said GDP growth of 6.5% wouldn’t be a “big problem,” though he is confident of achieving 7% growth this year. Even that figure is less than the government’s official 7.5% target.

Portugal sank further into crisis. A presidential proposal on Wednesday for urgent cross-party cooperation and early elections seems to have backfired. Portugal’s leadership is trying to recover from the resignation of two senior ministers, but only succeeded in pushing up bond yields, sending the country into “a deeper crisis than it was a week ago” (paywall).

Singapore is sizzling. Its economy expanded by an impressive 15.2 percent in the three months through June compared with the previous quarter, beating all estimates for the fastest growth since 2011. Strong local demand compensated for the uneven global recovery.

Carl Ichan upped the stakes for Dell. The billionaire investor said he would increase his offer for the PC maker for a fourth time in an attempt to outbid founder Michael Dell, who wants to take the company private.

Apple and Google are friendly. The two rivals have had “lots and lots” of meetings, according to Google chairman Eric Schmidt, and are in “constant business discussions.” The two companies are fierce competitors in several market segments, not least smartphones and software.

Steve Ballmer restructured Microsoft. The broad reorganization is aimed at pulling sprawling units together, as it aims to focus more on devices (paywall) such as tablet computers and the services that run on them. It’s also a way for Ballmer to consolidate power.

US stocks hit highs. The S&P 500 index and Dow Industrials both had record closing levels, as comments Wednesday by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke eased concerns the US central bank was close to tapering its bond buying.

Quartz obsession interlude

Gwynn Guilford on how China’s banks continued to lend despite the central bank’s directions: “The ‘Big Four’ state-owned banks—China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commerical Bank of China, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China—lent a combined $27.7 billion in the first week of July (link in Chinese), reported the Shanghai Seucrities News (SSN). That’s compared with $44 billion for all of June. Some $35.4 billion of that was lent out in the first ten days of June, before rates hit prohibitive heights.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

China’s dangerous shadow banking can be a fabulous opportunity for those who bet against it.

The recession’s legacy will be empowered cities. And America is leading the charge.

The high-end art market is blatantly manipulated by galleries. That is bad news for art lovers and most artists.

China’s blackout of US websites isn’t just a media freedom issue. It’s also inconsistent with free-trade commitments under the WTO.

Globalization is the unsung hero of the empowered global middle class. Protests are about getting globalization right, not a fight against it.

Surprising discoveries

3D printed rocket parts could make space travel cheaper. Production costs could fall by 70%.

You no longer need water to irrigate a field. This chemically engineered powder will do just fine.

Human-powered helicopters are now reality. You just have to cycle really hard.

The 9/11 mastermind redesigned the vacuum cleaner.CIA officials were trying to keep Khalid Sheikh Mohammed occupied to undo the psychological effects of interrogation

The inventor of Google Glass is developing wearable computers for dogs.They may let pets send messages to humans.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, magic powder and prison inventions to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

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DailyFX Morning Slices: Japanese Yen Rebound on BoJ Response to Abe Short-Lived

Few key data out of Europe alongside general complacency has led to dull and uninspiring price action overnight in FX markets. The biggest news in the overnight was the Bank of Japan Rate Decision, in which Governor Masaaki Shirakawa defended the BoJ’s monetary policy, suggesting that comments issued last week by Japanese opposition leader Shinzo Abe were “unrealistic” and deconstructive to the BoJ’s intended policy path.

While the USD/JPY had only depreciated by -0.01% at the time this was written on Tuesday, the Yen’s strength was much more pronounced earlier in the day, as it appeared that the BoJ was going to resist any exogenous pressure (in this case, political) to alter its monetary policy. But the words of Governor Shirakawa have proven anything but reassuring – if so, I would have expected the USD/JPY to have quickly reversed course and move lower, especially considering the US fiscal cliff/slope is in the picture.

The lack of a positive reaction by the Yen could be a result of the US holiday this week, that has markets at half or no capacity Wednesday through Friday; fewer traders around mean that there’s not really a ‘market’ there to react to the comments. On the other hand, Asian and European markets are open as normal, which then offers a conflicting view: no one believes BoJ Governor Shirakawa that unlimited money printing is an unrealistic outcome at this point in time.

Meanwhile, if there is a chance for volatility today, trading around the European close might offer the clearest opportunity, with Euro-zone finance ministers meeting to discuss the Greek aid package today.

Taking a look at credit, peripheral bond yields are lower, keeping one possible impediment to the Euro on the sidelines. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.184% (-3.3-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 3.190 % (-7.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.881% (-1.0-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 5.858% (-1.2-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

Best,

Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
cvecchio@dailyfx.com

TAKE A LOOK-Five world markets themes in the coming week

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate the thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/ PLUS CA CHANGE
Investors are finding the secondquarter a trickier environment than the first. Stocks are ceding ground, concern about the euro zone’s highly indebted economies (especially Spain) has resurfaced, safe haven Bunds offer little more than capital preservation at best, and the FXoptions market is signalling a greater degree of uncertainty about the outlook for major exchange rates. Part of the problem is that this is the first time in a while that investors are having to figure out the appropriate price for assets without any prospect of either Fed or ECB liquidity injections. Those who think one can’t have too much of a good thing are already wondering whether Spain’s plight will deteriorate enough to force the ECB to consider a third LTRO, though there is no sign thecentral bank is inclined to take this route. But some are fretting about the unintended consequences of the central bank action already taken. Nomura’s Bob Janjuah, who terms the current policy-setting environment “monetary anarchy”, points out thelong-term risks to financial markets and the financial sector of central bank incentives to misallocate capital and therefore misprice assets. And even in the short term, any Spanish or Italian banks that have used cheap ECB loans to stock up on their government’s debt risk nursing losses that will only exacerbate concern about these countries.

2/ WHERE’S THE CORDON SANITAIRE?
Spain’s debt auctions in the coming week will ensure that the borrowing costs of the euro zone periphery stay at the forefront of investorfocus. Spain’s 10-year bond yields are not too far from 6 percent, and it won’t take much to push financing costs into territory that is deemed unsustainable if they break decisively above that level. While Spain has frontloaded its issuance thisyear, persistently weak demand at subsequent auctions could erode sentiment towards its markets even further and show that the tonic effect of the ECB’s LTROs is over. What’s more, Italy has been caught in the backwash of concern about Spain. Itsyields are back near levels that prevailed before the ECB’s first LTRO and this week it sold fewer bonds at an auction than it had originally intended because it didn’t want to lock in its borrowing costs at current rates. With no signs that the ECBis about to throw another lifeline anytime soon, the focus will turn to whether finance officials will agree to beef up resources at the IMF/World Bank Spring meeting.

3/ A LA MODE
Interest in auctions is not confined to the euro zone’s weaker sovereign issuers. Germany’s two-year bond auction on Wednesday will come under close scrutiny given two-year yields hit record lows in the secondary market and even briefly broke below those of Japanese counterparts in the past week. Appetite for safe haven German 10-year bonds showed signs of flagging at an auction in the past week. With the secondary market yield barely above 0.1 percent, this two-year offering will show just how little investors are willing to get for holding core euro zone debt right. France will also tap the primary market in the coming week, just before the first round of presidential elections on April 22. Markets are homing in on how French candidates are positioned on fiscal reforms and French bonds’ relativeunderperformance against Bunds risks becoming more marked if the pre-election rhetoric turns more strident.

4/ DEJA VU
European stock markets are underperforming world stocks. The FTSEurofirst has ceded nearly all the ground it gained in the first three months of the year and some national peripheral euro zone indices are actually lower in the year to date. As has been the case so many times before, the catalyst for the most recent decline has been concern about the outlook for global growth and the euro zone debt crisis. And there seems to be aslimmer chance that the earnings season which has just kicked off can generate enough positive news to offset that. Results from Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Citigroup (C.N), BoA (BAC.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) will be in particular focus in the comingweek for what they show about the health of banks’ post-LTRO trading books and for what investors might be able to extrapolate about the health of European banks.

5/ FX CONTRETEMPS
Investors seem inclined to turn to the Swiss franc, the yen and even the British pound rather than the euro asthe euro zone debt crisis shows signs of flaring up again and global growth loses a bit of momentum. The near-elimination of the premium that investors get to hold two-year German debt rather than Japanese paper could bring particular pressure to bear on the euro/yen exchange rate, especially if the crossover between the two becomes more than a brief phenomenon. The preference for options that give investors the right to sell euros has become somewhat more pronounced. The options market is alsoflagging the risk of another test of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB)resolve to defend the floor it has set for the franc’s exchange rate against the euro. Rhetoric has already been backed up by action but, given that has not pushed the franc too far away from the SNB’s 1.20 floor, the central bank may have to up the ante if it wants to preserve its credibility.

CWS Market Review – February 10, 2012

After defying my prediction for several weeks, long-term interest rates are beginning to creep higher. This is by far the most important event on Wall Street right now, and every investor needs to understand how higher bond yields will impact their investments.

In this issue of CWS Market Review, I’ll explain what’s happening and why. I’ll also show you areas that will benefit the most from a turn in the bond market. Later on, I’ll cover some of the recent earnings reports from our Buy List. The good news is that our strategy continues to do well. (Didya catch Wright Express? It just hit a new 52-week high on Thursday.)

Before I get to that, let’s take a closer look at what has the bond market so spooked. On Thursday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond closed at 3.20%. That’s the highest yield in 15 weeks. Of course, that’s still very low, but the important point is that investors are migrating out of sure-thing assets in search of more excitement.

Who can blame them? It’s not so much that bond yields are rising; it’s that the era of ultra-low yields is gradually passing. There are two reasons why long-term interest rates had been so low. One was due to aggressive buying by our friend at the Federal Reserve. The idea was that by gobbling up tons of bonds, Benny and his buds could push down yields and give the housing a market a boost. In turn, that would help lift the entire economy out of its doldrums. A reawakened housing sector has typically been the catalyst for an economic recovery.

So, did it work? Put it this way: The latest numbers show that housing prices are back to 2003 levels, which is a roundabout way of saying “No, it didn’t work.”

The other reason why bond yields were so low is that investors from around the world fled European markets and parked their money in safe U.S. Treasuries. The yield on 30-year Treasury Inflation Securities currently runs about 0.74%. That’s roughly one-third the yield you would have gotten one year ago.

Now that Greece has reached an austerity deal in exchange for more bailout cash, some of the pressure has been taken off the quest for safety. I noticed that the one-year Treasury just hit its highest yield in six months. Don’t be too concerned; it’s still only at 0.15%.

What the Change of Sentiment Means for Investors

Our concern is the change of sentiment. The effect this has on the stock market is that investors are revisiting the areas they punished last year while backing away from the areas that did so well for them in 2011. What’s fascinating is that how poorly a stock did in 2011 is almost perfectly correlated with how well it’s doing this year. Look at Bank of America ($BAC) which went from being one of the worst performers last year to one of the best this year.

It doesn’t end there. Earlier this week, I posted a chart showing the performance of the ten different S&P 500 sectors for last year and this year. It’s almost a perfect mirror image. Last year, for example, investors rushed to dividend stocks in their desire for safety. This greatly helped our dividend-rich tobacco stock, Reynolds American ($RAI).

But this year, Reynolds hasn’t done much of anything. Personally, I don’t blame Reynolds. The company is doing just fine and I still like it (the earnings report and guidance were quite good). The difference is the market’s sentiment. Unfortunately, the market’s mood is impossible to predict. That’s why our strategy here is to stick with high-quality companies. If you’re patient, the market will eventually reward the deserving.

Who’s Been Winning from the New Market

Some of the market’s strength represents a new-found optimism for the economy. That’s why I said that cyclical stocks were about to take center stage. That’s exactly what happened. On Thursday, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) closed at 1,015.65 which is the highest level since July 28th. That’s an impressive 37.7% run since October 3rd. Again, it’s more accurate to say that this move is walking back the dramatic selloff rather than being a rally.

This is also why tech stocks and financial stocks have been leading the market. The Tech Sector has rallied for ten days in a row and for 17 of the last 18. This explains why the Nasdaq recently touched an 11-year high even though the S&P 500 is still shy of its high from July. Most people know that the Nasdaq is heavily weighted with tech stocks, but it also carries an outsized portion of financial stocks. Five months ago, I said the Financial Sector ETF ($XLF) would be a good “speculative buy” if it fell under $12. It did. In fact, the XLF actually dipped under $11 at one point. On Thursday, it closed at $14.71.

The lesson is that the market is rewarding more risk taking. That will help Buy List stocks such as Moog ($MOG-A), Ford Motor ($F), JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) and Hudson City ($HCBK). I also expect that gold will pick up as well.

Another interesting aspect of this market is that as risk-taking gets rewarded, the market itself has become dramatically less volatile. The difference between the S&P 500’s daily high and low this year has averaged only 1%. That’s down from over 3.3% in August.

The reason for the decreased volatility is that over the summer, two theses competed for the market’s soul: more safety versus more risk. The safety side won and that’s why yields got so low. As the daily tug-of-war has faded from the trading pits, the market’s frenetic swings have calmed down. Except for some occasional bumps, I expect the placid market to continue for several more weeks.

Strong Earnings Lift Wright Express to an All-Time High

Now let’s take a look at a few recent earnings reports from our Buy List:

In last week’s CWS Market Review, I said to look for a strong earnings report from Wright Express ($WXS). The company had embarrassed Wall Street analysts for the past few quarters and they did it again. Wright earned 98 cents per share which was six cents above Wall Street’s forecast.

I was also pleased with Wright’s guidance. For Q1, the company said it expects earnings between 87 and 93 cents per share and revenue between $134 and $139 million. For the year, Wright expects earnings to range between $4.10 and $4.30 per share on revenue between $590 million and $610 million. It’s too early for me to get a feel for whether or not these projections are too conservative.

The stock initially dropped after the earnings report but regained its composure and rallied to an all-time high. Wright is up 13.2% on the year for us. The stock is a very strong buy up to $65.

On Wednesday, Reynolds American ($RAI) reported Q4 earnings of 72 cents per share. That was four cents better than Wall Street’s consensus. More importantly, Reynolds offered earnings guidance for this year of $2.91 to $3.01 per share. I think the company has enough room to raise the quarterly dividend from 56 cents per share to 59 or 60 cents per share. Don’t expect the kind of capital gains surge we saw last year to repeat itself. Still, Reynolds is an excellent stock for conservative investors.

Sysco ($SYY) was our dud of the week. The food supplier reported Q1 adjusted earnings of 46 cents per share. Wall Street didn’t like that at all. The shares dropped 3.6% on Monday plus another 1.44% on Tuesday. I have to admit that I’m frustrated with Sysco. This is exactly the kind of defensive stock that won’t be richly rewarded over the coming weeks. The best part is the generous 3.66% yield. I’m keeping my buy price at $30 per share.

The final earnings report for this quarter will come on Thursday, February 16th when DirecTV ($DTV) reports its fourth-quarter earnings. One year ago, DTV earned 74 cents per share. Wall Street expects that to increase to 91 cents per share this time around. I particularly want to hear what the company has to say about their outlook for 2012.

That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

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Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last five years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through StockTwits with mailing address at 5110 N. 40th Street #108, Phoenix, AZ 85018; Telephone: 1-888-785-8948 / eddy@crossingwallstreet.com

CWS Market Review – January 6, 2012

The stock market has gotten off to a good start in 2012. The S&P 500 has risen all three trading days this year and is already in the black by 1.87%. Of course it’s still early, but after all the frustrations of 2011 I’m happy to see some gains.

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 1,281.06 which is its highest close since October 28th, and it’s a wee 0.33% rally away from hitting a five-month high. Since October 3rd, the index has surged more than 16.5%. There could be more good news ahead—the S&P 500 is currently above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages and that’s often a sign of a strong market.

Some of our Buy List stocks are also enjoying a nice rally. Through Thursday, JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) is up 7.31% for the year. Hudson City ($HCBK), one of our new picks, is up 6.72% and Ford ($F), a big under-performer last year, is up by 7.71%. It’s interesting that many of our poorer-performing stocks from 2011 are leading the charge so far in 2012.

In this issue of CWS Market Review, I want to explain an important market development in more depth. Namely, the U.S. market continues to divorce itself from the mess in Europe. I’ve talked about this in recent issues of CWS Market Review, but we’re really seeing this trend accelerate.

Putting it in basic terms, a weaker euro no longer automatically means a weak U.S. stock market. From mid-September until mid-December, the weak euro/weak market connection had been the rule. But as the Santa Claus Rally arrived and boosted U.S. stocks, the euro continued to sink like a…well, European Union currency. The euro just hit a 15-month low against the U.S. dollar.

What really caught my eye was on Thursday when Italian bond yields jumped back above 7% despite buying by the ECB. Seven percent is considered to be the point at which people who worry about such things start to worry. Not too long ago, 7% rates in Italy would have almost surely triggered selling in our market. But not this time. U.S. stocks took the news in stride.

So why is the U.S. market disentangling itself from Europe? The reason is that the economic news continues to look promising. For example, Tuesday’s ISM report came in at 53.9 which was above expectations. That’s the 29^th report in a row signaling an economic expansion. Earlier this year the ISM plunged, and that was one of the signs Double Dippers took for an imminent recession. They were wrong. The ISM quickly stabilized itself and the December report was the highest in six months.

I like to keep a close eye on the monthly ISM report because it has a good tracking record of lining up with recessions and expansions. For now, a reading of 53.9 is well inside the safe zone. The ISM has fallen between 53.0 and 55.0 a total of 100 times and just two of those have been official recessions.

As hard as it may be to believe, even U.S. manufacturing is coming back to life. But the most encouraging economic news came on Thursday when the private payroll company ADP ($ADP) said that the U.S. economy created 325,000 new jobs last month. That was a huge shocker. Wall Street was expecting 178,000.

I have to explain that the ADP report is just the pre-game show. The big kahuna is the official Labor Department report which comes out Friday morning (be sure to check the blog for the latest). The ADP report is welcome news because the jobs market has been one area of the economy that has shown almost zero improvement. Let me caution you that the ADP report isn’t always an accurate bellwether of the government’s report. But if it is, then this would be one of the best jobs reports in years. The consensus on Wall Street is for an increase of 150,000 in nonfarm payrolls.

I want to be clear that the economy is still in very bad shape and millions of Americans are without jobs, but after three years we may finally have evidence of good news. Green shoots, at last.

So what does this mean for us investors? One outcome would be higher bond yields. Actually, that’s already happening as Treasury yields have gradually climbed higher since December 19th. On Thursday, the 30-year T-bond got to 3.06% which is the highest yield in nearly a month. The yield on the 10-year has soared all the way to—are you sitting down?—2.03%. Ok, ok, that’s still very low, but bear in mind that it’s an increase of 30 basis points since September 22nd. (By the way, I think September 2011 may have marked a generational low in bond yields).

Another effect of stronger economic data is that the underperformance of cyclical stocks has most likely passed. Last year, I warned investors to steer clear of stocks of companies whose businesses are heavily tied to the economic cycle (energy, transports, industrials, etc.). Early in 2011 cyclicals started to underperform, and by the summer, the bottom fell out. In less than three months, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) lost one-third of its value. Now, however, cyclicals aren’t nearly as dangerous. For us, this mean s that Buy List stocks like Ford ($F), Harris ($HRS) and Moog ($MOG-A) have a good shot of being our top performers this year.

Earlier I mentioned how some of last year’s duds now look like star performers. It’s not just happening on our Buy List. Look at the Homebuilder ETF ($XHB) which has soared 44% in the last three months. This is a sector that’s seen almost nothing but bad news for years. Even the financials, particularly the non-bank financials, are showing some life. Since December 19th, the Financials ETF ($XLF) has added 10%.

While the macro-economy is getting better, I need to explain one apparent contradiction and that’s that the news for corporate profits won’t be as good. Corporate profits had been the one area of the economy that was doing fairly well. For the last several quarters, companies consistently beat analysts’ expectations.

But now companies have been busy lowering expectations. Just this week, both Target ($TGT) and Eli Lilly ($LLY) gave lower earnings guidance. Part of this is about managing expectations. But another part is that many companies have run out of room to increase profit margins. Until now, they’ve increased margins not by raising prices but by cutting costs. In other words, laying people off. Oddly enough, the corporate earnings story is the opposite side of the coin of the jobs story.

Make no mistake, earnings are still good. They just won’t be quite as good as many people thought a few weeks ago. Wall Street currently expects the S&P 500 to earn $24.31 for Q4. That’s an increase of 10.85% over a year ago, but it’s a drop of 3.88% from Q3. (I should also mention that what’s left of AIG will have an unusual impact on overall earnings.) If that forecast is right, it would bring the full-year total for 2011 to $97.02. Again, let’s look at the big picture: that’s a 70% increase from two years before.

There are lots of good bargains on the Buy List. Wright Express ($WXS) looks good. CA Technologies ($CA), one of our new stocks, also looks good here. AFLAC ($AFL) got as high as $45.27 on Thursday which is its highest price in a month. Plus, shares of Ford ($F) look like they’re about to break out above $12. The upcoming earnings season should be a big help for us.

That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy