Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
The Dow Future has gained 38 points to 14752. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.383 points to 80.377. Gold has slipped 6.43 dollars to 1310.33. Silver is declining 0.1080 dollars to 22.1120. The Dow Industrials slipped 159.71 points, at 14776.53, while the S&P 500 edged lower 20.67 points, last seen at 1655.45. The Nasdaq Composite eased 75.29 points to 3695.09. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub
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Key Events for Wednesday
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Market Composite Index (previous 450.2)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -0.4%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 189.4)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -5.6%)
Refinance Index (previous 1947.4)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +3.1%)
8:30 AM ET. IMF Global Financial Stability Report main chapters published
10:00 AM ET. Aug Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 363.73M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +5.47M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 219.73M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.5M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 129.18M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.68M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 18.68M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous -0.58M)
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CURRENCIES
December Dollar was higher overnight and trading above the 10-day moving average hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the decline off July’s high, January’s low crossing at 79.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.57. Second resistance is the September 16th gap crossing at 81.56. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 79.72. Second support is January’s low crossing at 79.66.
The December Euro was lower overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.50 hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off July’s low, February’s high crossing at 137.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 136.49. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 137.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 134.64.
The December British Pound was lower overnight and trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6035. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6035 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews this summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1.6264 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.6252. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1.6264. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6035. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5943.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight extending the decline off last Thursday’s high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10977 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off May’s low, weekly resistance crossing at .11200 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at .11158. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at .11200. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10977. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10951.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September’s high, the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 95.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.80. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 97.25. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-September rally crossing at 95.94. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-September rally crossing at 95.46.
The December Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, August’s high crossing at .10442 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10177 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at .10357. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at .10442. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10246. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10177.
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ENERGIES
November Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five days. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August’s high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 108.15. First support is September’s low crossing at 101.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday’s breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.06. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If November extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 306.50 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 296.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 312.72. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 294.23. Second support is 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 288.19.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off Monday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August’s high, the 87% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 249.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 274.67. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 256.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 249.90.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week’s rally, September’s high crossing at 3.892 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.593 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.734. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 3.892. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.593. Second support is September’s low crossing at 3.450.
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FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off March’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 28.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 26.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off July’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, May’s high crossing at 19.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, September’s low crossing at 82.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.97 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS
corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday’s decline. However, harvest pressure along with expectations that when the USDA does release its latest production and carryout figures the expected increases could push December corn to new harvest lows. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish despite Tuesday’s setback signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday’s high crossing at 4.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, the 87% retracement level of the 2010-2012 rally crossing at 4.33 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 4.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.73 1/2. First support the 87% retracement level of the 2010-2012 rally crossing at 4.33 1/2. Second support is the 2010 low crossing at 4.01.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 7.04 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.86 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 6.99 3/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 7.04 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.86 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.68 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 4-cents at 7.60 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September’s low, June’s high crossing at 7.79 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 2nd gap crossing at 7.45 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 7.63 1/2. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 7.79 1/2. First support is the October 2nd gap crossing at 7.45 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.43 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 7.58 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at 7.64 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.23 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
soybeans were lower overnight as larger than expected carryout and better than expected yield reports are providing pressure to the market. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.16 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August’s high, the 62% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.56 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 13.05 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.16 1/4. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 12.63 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 12.56 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 418.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September’s high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 390.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 418.80. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 451.20. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 397.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 390.60.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off this month’s low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August’s high, the 2010 low crossing at 38.28 is the next downside target later this fall. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.53. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 39.20. Second support is the 2010 low crossing at 38.28.
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 3090.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3209.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3209.60. Second resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 3251.25. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 3144.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3090.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s decline, August’s low crossing at 1621.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1685.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1685.64. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 1726.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1640.30. Second support is August’s low crossing at 1621.00.
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INTEREST RATES
T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 134-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 133-29. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 134-14. First support is the reaction low crossing at 132-22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-09.
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LIVESTOCK
hogs closed up $0.37 at $91.22.
October hog closed lower on Tuesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday’s gap crossing at 92.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October extends the decline off September’s high, the reaction low crossing at 89.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is September’s high crossing at 93.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.30. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 90.72. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.70.
October cattle closed up $0.40 at 128.27.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off September’s low, August’s high crossing at 129.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September’s high crossing at 128.40. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 129.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.72.
October feeder cattle closed up $0.80 at $164.80.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May’s low, upside target will be hard to project with October trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 164.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 164.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.95.
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PRECIOUS METALS
December gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December renews the decline off August’s high, August’s low crossing at 1271.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1375.40. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 1276.90. Second support is August’s low crossing at 1271.80.
December silver was lower due to profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at 23.445 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.890 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 23.445. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24.250. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 20.875. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 19.937.
December copper was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past six days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 323.55 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off September’s low, August’s high crossing at 339.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is September’s high crossing at 335.95. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 339.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 323.55. Second support is September’s low crossing at 319.05.
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