KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, October 12, 2012
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 326.9K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 1.31M)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 307K)
8:30 AM ET. Sept PPI
PPI (expected +0.8%; previous +1.7%)
PPI Core (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PPI Core Crude Goods (previous +2.2%)
PPI Core Intermediate Goods (previous -0.2%)
PPI Crude Goods (previous +5.8%)
PPI Energy Goods (previous +6.4%)
PPI Intermediate Goods (previous +1.1%)
PPI Passenger Cars (previous -0.2%)
9:55 AM ET. Oct Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Sentiment Index Mid Month (expected 78; previous 79.2)
Expectations Index Mid Month (previous 73.4)
Value (Current Period) Mid Month (previous 88.3)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The December NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off September’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 38%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 2707.79 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2797.95 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 2768.12. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2797.95. First support is the 38% retracement level
of the June-September rally crossing at 2707.79. Second support is the 50%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 2657.00.
The December S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight but
remains below the broken June-July uptrend line crossing near 1435.40.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Wednesday’s close below the aforementioned uptrend line
confirms that a trend change has been posted and opens the door for additional
weakness near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, the 25%
retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 1414.52 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1443.16
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
broken uptrend line crossing near 1435.40. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1443.16. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at
1421.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the June-September
rally crossing at 1414.52.
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December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 150-09 would confirm a
breakout above the July-September downtrend line and signal that a trend change
has taken place while opening the door for a possible test of September’s high
crossing at 151-29. If December renews last week’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 146-10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
July-September downtrend line crossing near 149-04. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 150-09. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
147-10. Second support is August’s low crossing at 145-23.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
November crude oil was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above Wednesday’s
high crossing at 93.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If November renews the decline off September’s high, the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19 is the next
downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 93.66. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 98.60. First support is the 62%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19. Second support
is the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 84.29.
November heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight after testing
September’s high crossing at 326.33. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If November extends the rally off September’s low, March’s high
crossing at 329.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 314.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 326.50. Second resistance is
March’s high crossing at 329.00. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 314.42. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 305.89.
November unleaded gas was lower due to profit taking overnight. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this
summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 320.86 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.31 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 299.29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 320.86. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.31. Second support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 275.38.
November Henry natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight after
testing the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 3.635 on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November
renews the rally off August’s low, the 50% retracement level of the
2011-2012-decline crossing at 3.965 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.284 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 3.634. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at
3.965. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.475. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.284.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the
corrective rally off September’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last
Friday’s low crossing at 79.18 would confirm that the corrective rally off
September’s low has ended. If December extends the corrective rally off
September’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-September decline
crossing at 80.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s
high crossing at 80.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
July-September decline crossing at 80.97. First support is last Friday’s low
crossing at 79.18. Second support is September’s low crossing at 78.72.
The December Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below
last Monday’s low crossing at 128.13 would renew the decline off September’s
high while opening the door for a larger-degree decline during October. If
December renews the rally off July’s low, the 50% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 132.52 is the next upside target. First resistance
is last Friday’s high crossing at 130.80. Second resistance is September’s high
crossing at 131.83. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at 128.13.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.68.
The December British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off September’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline,
the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 1.5959 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6143
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1.6143. Second resistance is last Friday’s
high crossing at 1.6213. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1.5972.
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 1.5959.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of
this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that
sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last Monday’s low crossing
at .10609 would confirm that a top and trend change have been posted. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10713 would signal that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10713. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .10793.
First support is last Monday’s low crossing at .10609. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at .10430.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight while extending this
week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the
rally off last week’s low, September’s high crossing at 108.38 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction crossing at 106.09 would renew the
decline off September’s high. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing
at 107.93. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 103.59. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 106.09. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 100.26.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of
Monday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways
trading is possible near-term. Closes above Thursday’s high crossing at .12836
would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews last week’s
decline, September’s low crossing at .12631 is the next downside target. From a
broad perspective, December needs to close above .12977 or below .12412 to
confirm a breakout of this summer’s trading range and point the direction of
the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
.12922. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at .12977. First support
is September’s low crossing at .12631. Second support is August’s low crossing
at .12565.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
December gold was lower overnight as it consolidates below August’s uptrend
line and the 20-day moving average crossing at 1773.10. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish warning that a short-term might be in or is near. Closes
below the reaction low crossing at 1738.30 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If December renews the rally off May’s low, February’s high
crossing at 1800.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 1798.10. Second resistance is February’s high
crossing at 1800.90. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1762.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1738.30.
December silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the
past four weeks. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction
low crossing at 33.360 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and
could open the door for additional weakness during October. If December renews
this summer’s rally, the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing
at 36.221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday’s high
crossing at 35.445. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 36.221. First support is the reaction low crossing
at 33.360. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 32.510.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s
rally while at the same time extending the trading range of the past four
weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing
at 368.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December
renews the rally off August’s low, the 87% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 392.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the
75% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 383.10. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
392.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 368.05. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 365.85.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
December coffee close lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off last
week’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this week’s decline, September’s low crossing at 15.65 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.29 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off
September’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 21.78 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.68 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 20.77 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall’s rally, the reaction
high crossing at 22.53 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. Closes above
77.49 or below 69.40 are needed to confirm a breakout of August’s trading range
and point the direction of the next trending move.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
December corn was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of Thursday’s rally following yesterday’s bullish
supply-demand report. The trade will look at this morning’s weekly export sales
report for near-term direction. However, I would not be surprised to see a
steady to lower close today as bullish traders bank profits ahead of the
weekend. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish again signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally
off September’s low, the reaction high crossing at 7.89 1/2 is the next upside
target. Closes below Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.32 1/4 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 7.89 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.06 1/2. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.32 1/4. Second support is the
late-September low crossing at 7.05.
December wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight while extending the
trading range of the past three months. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. From a broad
perspective, December wheat needs to close above 9.53 1/4 or below 8.49 1/4 to
confirm a breakout of the late-summer trading range and point the direction of
the next trending move. First resistance is September’s high crossing at 9.31.
Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 9.45 1/2. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 8.49 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level
of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.29 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed 20 1/2-cents at 9.18.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday following the release
of a bullish supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends the rally off September’s low, the reaction high crossing at 9.29 is
the next upside target. If December extends the decline off September’s high,
August’s low crossing at 8.47 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 9.29. Second resistance is September’s high
crossing at 9.49 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at 8.74 1/2.
Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
8.38 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower due to light profit taking overnight
while extending the trading range of the past two and a half months. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. December needs to close above
9.84 1/2 or below 9.12 are needed to confirm a breakout of the August-September
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First
resistance is August’s high crossing at 9.84 1/2. Second resistance is July’s
high crossing at 10.34. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.15 1/4.
Second support is September’s low crossing at 9.12.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might
be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.80 3/4
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews
the decline off September’s high, the 62% retracement level of this summer’s
rally crossing at 14.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 15.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 15.80 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of
this summer’s rally crossing at 15.17 1/4. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 14.52 3/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
478.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews
the decline off September’s high, the 50% retracement level of this summer’s
rally crossing at 446.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 478.20. Second resistance is Thursday’s high
crossing at 479.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of this summer’s
rally crossing at 446.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 424.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this month’s trading
range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
renews the decline off September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 49.88 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.60 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at
52.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.60. First
support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 50.06. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 49.88.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.60 at $77.50.
December hogs closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidates some of the rally off September’s low. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends the rally off September’s low, the 75% retracement level of the
July-September decline crossing at 79.21 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.34 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 78.25.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing
at 79.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.34. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.34.
December cattle closed down $0.65 at 125.92.
December cattle posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 126.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been
posted. If December renews the decline off September’s high, June’s low
crossing at 123.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 126.86. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 129.20. First support is September’s low crossing at 123.95. Second
support is June’s low crossing at 123.15.
November feeder cattle closed down $2.90 at $143.80.
November Feeder cattle closed sharply lower following today’s bullish
supply-demand report for corn on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off
September’s high, July’s low crossing at 139.75 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.97 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 146.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
June-July decline crossing at 149.03. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 143.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 143.40.
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T H A N K Y O U
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Pelias' views 