E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline
off September’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends the decline off September’s high, the 38% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 2707.79 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2809.91 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 2785.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
2809.91. First support is today’s low crossing at 2718.50. Second support is
the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 2707.79.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday and below the June-July
uptrend line crossing near 1432.21 confirming a trend change is taking place.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bearish signaling that sideway to lower prices is possible near-term. If
December extends today’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 1414.52 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1445.69 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1445.69. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 1467.50.
First support is today’s low crossing at 1425.70. Second support is the 25%
retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 1414.52.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday and below the lower boundary of the
trading range of the past four weeks, which crosses at 13,367. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and
the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June-July uptrend line crossing
near 13,293 would confirm a trend change has taken place. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 13,522 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13,522. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 13,661.
First support is today’s low crossing at 13,335. Second support is the
June-July uptrend line crossing near 13,293.
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December T-bonds closed up 30/32’s at 148-29.
December T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last
week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 146-10 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-30 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 148-30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 150-09.
First support is Monday’s low crossing at 147-10. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 146-10.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
November crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of Tuesday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.62
would confirm that a low has been posted. If November renews the decline off
September’s high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 87.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 92.62. Second resistance is September’s high
crossing at 100.73. First support is the 62% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 87.19. Second support is the 75% retracement
level of the June-September rally crossing at 84.29.
November heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off
September’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If November extends this week’s rally, September’s high crossing at
326.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at
305.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 324.24. Second resistance is September’s high crossing
at 326.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 305.89. Second support
is September’s low crossing at 302.27.
November unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally
off June’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If November extends this summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing
at 326.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at
275.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 299.29. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 326.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
287.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.38.
November Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday
as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
November renews the rally off August’s low, the 38% retracement level of the
2011-2012-decline crossing at 3.635 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.235 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.546. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at
3.635. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 3.327. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.235.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The December Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 80.25 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline
off July’s high, weekly support crossing at 78.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.25. Second resistance is
the 38% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 80.97.
First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 79.18. Second support is
September’s low crossing at 78.72.
The December Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of
Tuesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
renews the decline off September’s high, the reaction low crossing at 125.20 is
the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the 50%
retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 132.52 is the next upside
target. First resistance is September’s high crossing at 131.83. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
132.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 128.13. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 125.20.
The December British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday
as it consolidated some of the decline off September’s high. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the
aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 1.5933 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1.6157 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6105. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6157. First support is
today’s low crossing at 1.5972. Second support is the 38% retracement level of
the June-September rally crossing at 1.5933.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as
it retested the broken July-August uptrend line crossing near .10670. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the July-September
rally crossing at .10550 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10716 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .10793. Second
resistance is September’s high crossing at .10838. First support is the
reaction low crossing at .10609. Second support is the 38% retracement level of
the July-September rally crossing at .10550.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
renews the rally off June’s low, last July’s high crossing at 104.53 is the
next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 100.99 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 102.56. Second resistance is September’s high
crossing at 103.59. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
101.73. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 100.99.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that
additional gains are possible. If December renews the rally off August’s low,
the reaction high crossing at .12922 is the next upside target. Closes below
the reaction low .12631 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at .12922. Second resistance is
September’s high crossing at .12977. First support is the reaction low crossing
at .12631. Second support is August’s low crossing at .12565.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
December gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at
1738.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October
renews the rally off August’s low, this year’s high crossing at 1799.50 is the
next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1798.10.
Second resistance is this year’s high crossing at 1799.50. First support is
today’s low crossing at 1758.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
1738.30.
December silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this
week’s decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 33.360 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June’s low,
the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 36.221 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 35.445. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
36.221. First support is the reaction low crossing at 33.360. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 32.510.
December copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday while extending the
trading range of the past four months. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 368.05 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renewed the rally
off August’s low, the 87% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
392.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 383.95. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 392.60. First support is the reaction low crossing
at 368.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 365.85.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
December coffee close lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last
week’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this week’s decline, September’s low crossing at 15.65 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.38 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s decline, July’s low
crossing at 21.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 24.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday while extending
the trading range of the past six days. The mid-range close set the stage for a
steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning
neutral to bearish hinting that a top might be in or is near. If March renews
this fall’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 22.53 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.77 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above 77.49 or below 69.40 are needed to confirm a breakout
of August’s trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
December Corn closed down 5 1/4-cents at 7.36 3/4.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking ahead of
Thursday’s monthly supply-demand report. The Dow Jones survey of analysts shows
the average estimate for Thursday’s USDA report for corn production at 10.598
billion bushels, which is 129 million less than the September report. They
pegged the corn yield at 122.7 bpa, which is down 0.1 bpa from the September
report. They estimate the 2011/12 ending corn stocks at 645 million bushels,
which is 88 million bushels less than the September report. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline
off August’s high, the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
7.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 7.68 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.66 1/2. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at crossing at 7.89 1/2. First support is last week’s
low crossing at 7.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 6.73 3/4.
December wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 8.69 3/4.
December wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a
broad perspective, December wheat needs to close above 9.53 1/4 or below 8.57
1/4 to confirm a breakout of this summer’s trading range and point the
direction of the next trending move. First resistance is August’s high crossing
at 9.45 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 9.53 1/4. First
support is August’s low crossing at 8.57 1/4. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.29 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 3/4-cents at 8.97 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September’s low, the
reaction high crossing at 9.29 is the next upside target. If December extends
the decline off September’s high, August’s low crossing at 8.47 1/2 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.29. Second
resistance is September’s high crossing at 9.49 1/4. First support is August’s
low crossing at 8.74 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 8.38 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 5 3/4-cents at 9.33 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this
week’s short covering rebound. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics
and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.64 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the
decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 8.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 9.64. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 9.83
1/2. First support is August’s low crossing at 9.12 1/4. Second support is the
50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.84.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans closed down 26 3/4-cents at 15.23 1/4.
November soybeans closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 16.01 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November
renews the decline off September’s high, the 62% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 14.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.01. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 16.86. First support is the 50% retracement level
of this summer’s rally crossing at 15.17 1/4. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 14.52 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $8.40 at $462.60.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday and is poised to renew the
decline off September’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 484.00
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the
decline off September’s high, the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 446.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 484.00. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 506.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 455.10.
Second support is the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
446.50.
December soybean oil closed down 62-pts. at 50.63.
December soybean closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off
September’s high, the 87% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
49.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at
53.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 53.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 53.21. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.06.
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
49.88.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $1.30 at $78.10.
December hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off
September’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September’s
low, the 75% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 79.21
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
75.08 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today’s
high crossing at 78.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 79.21. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 75.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
75.08.
December cattle closed down $0.15 at 126.57.
December cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 127.08 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If
December renews the decline off September’s high, June’s low crossing at 123.15
is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 127.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129.20.
First support is September’s low crossing at 123.95. Second support is June’s
low crossing at 123.15.
November feeder cattle closed unchanged at $146.70.
November Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Wednesday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 147.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If November extends the decline off September’s high, July’s low
crossing at 139.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 147.21. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the June-July decline crossing at 149.03. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 143.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
143.40.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
BCX.Q13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Aug 2013 60.50 2.50 +4.31
LB.K13 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) May 2013 309 6 +1.98
LH.Z12 LEAN HOGS Dec 2012 78.10 1.30 +1.69
KW.Z12 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Dec 2012 897.50 8.75 +0.98
W.Z12 WHEAT Dec 2012 870.00 5.75 +0.66
US.Z12 T-BONDS Dec 2012 148.71875 0.75000 +0.51
LC.V12 LIVE CATTLE Oct 2012 124.925 0.225 +0.18
TY.Z12 10 YEAR T-NOTES Dec 2012 133.218750 0.171875 +0.13
ED.M18 EURODOLLAR Jun 2018 97.66 0.03 +0.03
FC.F13 FEEDER CATTLE Jan 2013 149.375 0.050 +0.03
LOSERS
BCX.K13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX May 2013 52.00 -2.50 -4.59
SM.Z12 SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2012 462.6 -8.4 -1.78
S.X12 SOYBEANS Nov 2012 1523.25 -26.75 -1.73
YK.X12 SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2012 1523.25 -26.75 -1.73
RR.X12 ROUGH RICE Nov 2012 15.025 -0.205 -1.35
BO.Z12 SOYBEAN OIL Dec 2012 50.63 -0.62 -1.21
DJ.Z12 DJ INDUSTRIAL AVG Dec 2012 13268 -144 -1.07
CSI.X12 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Nov 2012 2.068 -0.021 -1.01
RV RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX MINI 710.79 -4.92 -0.69
SP.M14 S&P 500 INDEX Jun 2014 1386.5 -9.6 -0.69
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
TRLG TRUE RELIGION APPAREL 25.69 4.68 +22.28
AUQ AURICO GOLD INC 7.60 1.34 +21.41
AUQ AURICO GOLD 7.74 1.32 +20.56
AFFY AFFYMAX 26.12 2.36 +9.93
BKS BARNES & NOBLE 14.92 1.11 +8.04
YUM YUM BRANDS 70.99 5.29 +8.01
MLVF MALVERN FEDERAL BANCORP 11.2900 0.7908 +7.53
OPTR OPTIMER PHARMACEUTICALS 11.55 0.72 +6.65
LVNTA LIBERTY VENTURES 52.45 3.25 +6.61
ECYT ENDOCYTE 10.07 0.52 +5.45
LOSERS
HELE HELEN of TROY 28.17 -3.78 -11.83
THLD THRESHOLD PHARMACEUTICALS 5.26 -0.70 -11.74
IMH IMPAC MTG HOLDINGS 9.84 -1.16 -10.55
PGP PIMCO GLOBAL STOCKSPLUS & INC 18.72 -2.02 -9.74
NKO NIKO RESOURCES LTD 14.93 -1.38 -8.46
ESE ESCO TECHNOLOGIES 34.71 -2.90 -7.71
NWBOD NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS 6.52 -0.53 -7.52
PVA PENN VIRGINIA 5.0999 -0.3901 -7.11
CAJFF CANON 30.030 -2.245 -6.96
PRSS CAFEPRESS 7.51 -0.56 -6.94
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T H A N K Y O U
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