E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on
Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish
signaling that additional gains are possible. If September extends the rally
off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 2847.00 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2769.32 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 2836.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at
2847.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2769.32. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 2702.25.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extends this summer’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideway to higher prices is possible near-term. If
September extends this week’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 1472.56 is
the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1394.80 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 1437.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at
1472.56. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 1394.80. Second support is
the June-July uptrend line crossing near 1375.70.
The Dow closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week’s rally.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics
and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If the Dow extends Thursday’s rally, August’s high crossing
at 12,330 is the next upside target. Closes below the June-July uptrend line
crossing near 12,971 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is August’s high crossing at 13,330. Second resistance is May’s high
crossing at 13,338. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 12,977. Second
support is the June-July uptrend line crossing near 12,971.
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September T-bonds closed down 7/32’s at 148-13.
September T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the
rally off August’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling
that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 148-06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at
152-04 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing
at 150-31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152-04. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-06. Second support is
August’s low crossing at 145-03.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
October crude oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the
20-day moving average crossing at 95.52. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins. Stochastics
and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at
93.95 would confirm that a top and trend change has been posted. If October
renews the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 102.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is
August’s high crossing at 98.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level
of this year’s decline crossing at 102.50. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 95.52. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
93.95.
October heating oil closed higher on Friday while extending the trading
range of the past three weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.52 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off
June’s low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at
323.99 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing
at 321.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June
decline crossing at 323.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 311.52. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.49.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Friday and the mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off
June’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 320.50 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.34 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 305.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 320.50.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.35. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 289.13.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of
the rally off August’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October
renews the decline off July’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-July
rally crossing at 2.546 is the next downside target. If October renews the
rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.910. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.135. First support is August’s
low crossing at 2.610. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
April-July rally crossing at 2.546.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed the
decline off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 87%
retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 79.67 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.71 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.71. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 82.96. First support is today’s low crossing at 80.15. Second
support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 79.67.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday and above the 50% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 127.77 as it extended the rally off
July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September
renews the rally off July’s low, the 62% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 129.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 124.85 would confirm an end to the rally off July’s
low. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 128.08. Second resistance is
the 62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 129.48. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.85. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 122.45.
The September British Pound closed higher on Friday and tested the 75%
retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.6024 as it extends
the rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 87%
retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.6150 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5801 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.6024. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at
1.6150. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5801. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5752.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally
off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low,
the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at .10627 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10390 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at .10600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at .10627. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10390. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10201.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the
rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s
low, weekly resistance crossing at 103.45 is the next upside target. Closes
below the reaction low crossing at 100.46 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 102.39. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 103.45. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 100.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
100.10.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday erasing Thursday’s
decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August’s low,
July’s high crossing at .12854 is the next upside target. If September extends
Thursday’s decline, August’s low crossing at .12556 is the next downside
target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at .12819. Second resistance
is July’s high crossing at .12854. First support is August’s low crossing at
.12556. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .12514.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
October gold closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off
May’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low,
the 87% retracement level of the 2012-decline crossing at 1767.20 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1653.80 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 1742.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement
level of the 2012-decline crossing at 1767.20. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1683.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1653.80.
September silver closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off
June’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low,
the 75% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 34.627 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.082 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 33.685. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 34.627. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 31.599. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
30.082.
September copper closed sharply higher on Friday as it broke out to the
topside of this summer’s trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If September extends today’s rally, the 62% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 371.66 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.81 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
365.85. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year’s decline
crossing at 371.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
349.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.81.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
September coffee close higher on Friday and high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
extends this week’s decline, June’s low crossing at 15.01 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 163.73 would signal
that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it
consolidates some of this summer’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June’s low, weekly
resistance crossing at 28.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 24.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week’s
decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If October extends
the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at 17.58 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.85 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Friday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.51 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off
June’s low, the 38% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 77.92
is the next upside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
December Corn closed up 1-cent at 7.99 1/2.
December corn closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off
August’s high, the reaction low crossing at 7.86 is the next downside target.
Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of the
reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2. If December renews the rally off August’s
low, August’s high crossing at 8.49 is the next upside target. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at crossing at 8.40. Second resistance is
August’s high crossing at 8.49. First support is the reaction low crossing at
7.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2.
December wheat closed up 13 1/4-cents at 9.05.
December wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday’s rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. From a broad
perspective, December wheat has been forming a flat correction off July’s high.
Closes above 9.53 1/4 or below 8.57 1/4 are needed to confirm a breakout of
this sideways correction and point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is August’s high crossing at 9.45 1/2. Second resistance is
July’s high crossing at 9.53 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at
8.57 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 8.29 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 3/4-cents at 9.23 1/47.
December Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed higher on Friday and the
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 9.41 1/4 is the next upside target. If December
renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of this summer’s
rally crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is
August’s high crossing at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing
at 9.54 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at 8.74 1/2. Second support
is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.38 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 8 1/2-cents at 9.58.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session
begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 9.62 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If December renews the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement
level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.84 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.62 1/4. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing near 9.84 1/2. First support is August’s low
crossing at 9.12 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 8.84.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans closed down 10 1/2-cents at 17.36 1/2.
November soybeans closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it
consolidates some of this summer’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
17.02 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November
renews this summer’s rally, the ascending triangle formed off July’s high
projects a potential rally to the 18.46 area. First resistance is Tuesday’s
high crossing at 17.89. Second resistance is the ascending triangle projection
crossing at 18.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.02
1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 17.01.
December soybean meal closed down $1.20 at $526.90.
December soybean meal closed lower on Friday and the mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 514.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this
year’s rally, the ascending triangle formed off July’s high projects a rally to
the 565.30 area. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 541.80. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 514.10. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 513.30.
December soybean oil closed down 72-pts. at 56.66.
December soybean closed lower on Friday and below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 57.17 signals that a short-term top might be in or is near. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging
and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.93
would confirm that a top has been posted. If December renews this summer’s
rally, last July’s high crossing at 59.92 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 58.60. Second resistance is last
July’s high crossing at 59.92. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 55.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.28.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.40 at $71.35.
October hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends this year’s decline. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
October extends this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at 67.44 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.33
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 73.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 74.33. First support is today’s low crossing at 70.45.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 67.44.
October cattle closed up $0.42 at 126.47.
October cattle closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low,
August’s high crossing at 127.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 125.37 would temper the friendly outlook.
First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 126.70. Second resistance is
August’s high crossing at 127.22. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 125.37. Second support is August’s low crossing at 123.40.
October feeder cattle closed down $0.12 at $146.12.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the
rally off July’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July’s low, the
38% retracement level of this summer’s decline crossing at 147.92 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.66 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 147.92. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at
150.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.66. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 142.00.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
BCX.U12 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Sep 2012 54.50 4.50 +9.00
HG.Z12 COPPER Dec 2012 3.6450 0.1285 +3.65
SI.Z12 SILVER Dec 2012 33.690 1.016 +3.11
RR.X12 ROUGH RICE Nov 2012 14.955 0.330 +2.25
GC.Z12 GOLD Dec 2012 1740.5 34.9 +2.05
KW.Z12 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Dec 2012 923.25 11.75 +1.29
RB.Y$$ RBOB GASOLINE Cash 3.2890 0.0394 +1.21
GI.X12 S&P GSCI Nov 2012 678.50 7.00 +1.04
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1107.14 7.89 +0.72
RV RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX MINI 709.28 4.68 +0.66
LOSERS
BCX.Q13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Aug 2013 58.50 -6.00 -9.30
NN.X12 HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS SWAP Nov 2012 2.833 -0.077 -2.65
LB.F13 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Jan 2013 290.7 -5.1 -1.72
BO.Z12 SOYBEAN OIL Dec 2012 56.66 -0.72 -1.25
CSI.N13 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Jul 2013 1.998 -0.023 -1.14
S.N13 SOYBEANS Jul 2013 1569.75 -15.50 -0.98
LH.J13 LEAN HOGS Apr 2013 86.350 -0.850 -0.97
YK.X13 SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2013 1367.75 -10.50 -0.76
KB.Y$$ CHEESE-BLOCKS Cash 1830 -10 -0.54
AC.Y$$ ETHANOL NATIONAL RACK Cash 2.7321 -0.0140 -0.51
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/
WINNERS
GW GARDA WORLD SECURITY CORP 11.94 2.74 +29.78
JVA COFFEE HOLDING CO 7.580 1.425 +23.15
ANR ALPHA NATURAL RESOURCES 6.91 1.00 +16.92
MTL MECHEL OAO 7.00 0.94 +15.51
FSUGY FORTESCUE METALS GROUP 7.15 0.95 +15.32
CLF CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES 39.91 5.05 +14.49
GMCR GREEN MNTN COFFEE ROASTER 27.8400 3.2599 +13.26
NOR NORANDA ALUMINUM HOLDINGS 6.87 0.78 +12.81
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA 77.16 8.56 +12.48
LLL LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC 75.50 8.11 +12.03
LOSERS
ADNC AUDIENCE 6.90 -11.96 -63.41
P PANDORA MEDIA 10.465 -2.105 -16.75
HVU HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P 500 VIX B 9.66 -1.25 -11.46
BLOX INFOBLOX INC 20.750 -2.640 -11.29
ARAY ACCURAY 5.840 -0.695 -10.64
TNGO TANGOE 14.270 -1.700 -10.64
ABMD ABIOMED 21.005 -2.285 -9.81
LF LEAPFROG ENTERPRISES 9.15 -0.89 -8.86
MLNX MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES 110.7201 -9.2099 -7.68
FRAN FRANCESCAS HOLDINGS 27.84 -2.10 -7.01
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T H A N K Y O U
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