E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the
rally off June’s low and posted a new high for the year. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling
that additional short-term gains are possible. If September extends the rally
off June’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 2847.00 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2763.93 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 2827.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at
2847.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2763.93. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 2702.25.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the
highest closing level since 2008 as the European Central Bank announced
specifics of its bond-buying plan and data boosted optimism in the American
labor market. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideway to higher prices is
possible near-term. If September extends today’s rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 1472.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low
crossing at 1394.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 1430.70. Second resistance is monthly
resistance crossing at 1472.56. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
1394.80. Second support is the June-July uptrend line crossing near 1373.77.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13,152 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today’s rally, August’s high
crossing at 12,330 is the next upside target. Closes below the June-July
uptrend line crossing near 12,955 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 13,330. Second resistance
is May’s high crossing at 13,338. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
12,977. Second support is the June-July uptrend line crossing near 12,955.
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September T-bonds closed down 1-11/32’s at 148-20.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-06 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the
aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 152-04 is the next upside
target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 150-31. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152-04. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 148-06. Second support is August’s low crossing at
145-03.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
October crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the
20-day moving average crossing at 95.38. Profit taking tempered early gains and
the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s
night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the
reaction low crossing at 93.95 would confirm that a top and trend change has
been posted. If October renews the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 102.50 is the next upside target.
First resistance is August’s high crossing at 98.29. Second resistance is the
75% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 102.50. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.38. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 93.95.
October heating oil closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading
range of the past three weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.03 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off June’s low,
the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 323.99 is the
next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 321.60.
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline
crossing at 323.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
311.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.49.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally
off June’s low, March’s high crossing at 304.02 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.30 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 302.03. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 304.02. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.30. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 279.71.
October Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low, the reaction high
crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off
July’s high, the 75% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at
2.546 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 2.910. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.135.
First support is August’s low crossing at 2.610. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.546.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the
75% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 80.32 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.83 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.91. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 82.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of the
April-July rally crossing at 81.02. Second support is the 75% retracement level
of the April-July rally crossing at 80.32.
The September Euro closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off
July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September
renews the rally off July’s low, the 50% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 127.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 124.60 would confirm an end to the rally off July’s
low. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 126.54. Second resistance is
the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 127.77. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.60. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 122.45.
The September British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it extends the
rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement
level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.6024 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5782 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
1.5942. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June
decline crossing at 1.6024. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1.5782. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5635.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday and is poised to renew
the rally off July’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s
low, the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at .10627 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10373
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at .10527. Second resistance is the 50% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at .10627. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10373. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at .10201.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the
rally off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 102.05 is the next upside target. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 100.46 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 101.93. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 102.05. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 100.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
100.10.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day
moving average crossing at .12704 signaling that a short-term top has been
posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If September extends today’s decline, August’s low crossing
at .12556 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off
August’s low, July’s high crossing at .12854 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at .12793. Second resistance is
July’s high crossing at .12854. First support is August’s low crossing at
.12556. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .12514.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
October gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought,
diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low, the 75%
retracement level of the 2012-decline crossing at 1734.00 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1647.90 are needed
to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s
high crossing at 1713.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the
2012-decline crossing at 1734.00. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1677.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1647.90.
September silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off
June’s low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June’s low,
the 62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 33.129 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.805 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 32.865. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 33.129. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 31.281. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
29.805.
September copper closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday while
extending this summer’s trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. From a broad perspective, September copper remains locked
in a three-month trading range. Closes above July’s high crossing at 355.65 or
below July’s low crossing at 325.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of the
aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 354.50. Second resistance is
July’s high crossing at 355.65. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 343.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 328.85.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
September coffee close lower on Thursday and low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
extends this week’s decline, June’s low crossing at 15.01 is the next downside
target. If September renews the rally off August’s low, the reaction high
crossing at 17.78 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends this summer’s rally.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the
rally off June’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 28.10 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.18 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday extending this week’s breakout below
June’s low crossing at 19.24. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If October extends
the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at 17.58 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.92 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and the
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 74.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October
extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of this year’s
decline crossing at 77.92 is the next upside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
December Corn closed up 7 1/4-cents at 7.98.
December corn closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the
decline off August’s high, the reaction low crossing at 7.86 is the next
downside target. Closes below this support level would open the door for a
possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2. If December renews the
rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing at 8.49 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at crossing at 8.40.
Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 8.49. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 7.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
7.45 1/2.
December wheat closed up 24-cents at 8.91 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. From a
broad perspective, December wheat has been forming a flat correction off July’s
high. Closes above 9.53 1/4 or below 8.57 1/4 are needed to confirm a breakout
of this sideways correction and point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is August’s high crossing at 9.45 1/2. Second resistance is
July’s high crossing at 9.53 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at
8.57 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally
crossing at 8.29 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 24 1/2-cents at 9.11 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If December renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement
level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target.
If December renews the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at
9.41 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing
at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 9.54 1/4. First
support is August’s low crossing at 8.74 1/2. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.38 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 19 3/4-cents at 9.49 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session
begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing near 9.62 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If December renews the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement
level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.84 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.62 1/4. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing near 9.84 1/2. First support is August’s low
crossing at 9.12 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
summer’s rally crossing at 8.84.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans closed down a 1/2-cent at 17.47.
November soybeans closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this summer’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to
bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.97 1/4 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. If November extends this summer’s rally, the ascending
triangle formed off July’s high projects a potential rally to the 18.46 area.
First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 17.89. Second resistance is the
ascending triangle projection crossing at 18.46. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 17.42 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 16.97 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $8.40 at $525.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of
Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 512.50 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this year’s
rally, the ascending triangle formed off July’s high projects a rally to the
565.30 area. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 541.80. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 513.30. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 512.50.
December soybean oil closed down 59-pts. at 57.38.
December soybean closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the
rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer’s rally,
last July’s high crossing at 59.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 55.76 would confirm that a top has been
posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 58.60. Second resistance
is last July’s high crossing at 59.92. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 57.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 55.76.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $1.87 at $71.75.
October hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday to renew this year’s decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If October extends this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at
67.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 74.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.56. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 77.70. First support is today’s low crossing at
71.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 67.44.
October cattle closed down $0.27 at 126.05.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August’s low, August’s
high crossing at 127.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 125.21 would temper the friendly outlook. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 126.70. Second resistance is
August’s high crossing at 127.22. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 125.21. Second support is August’s low crossing at 123.40.
October feeder cattle closed down $0.87 at $146.25.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of
the rally off July’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July’s
low, the 38% retracement level of this summer’s decline crossing at 147.92 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
144.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
the 38% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 147.92. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at
150.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.38. Second
support is July’s low crossing at 138.30.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
BCX.K13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX May 2013 54.25 3.50 +6.90
W.Z12 WHEAT Dec 2012 891.75 24.00 +2.76
KW.Z12 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Dec 2012 911.50 24.50 +2.76
RV RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX MINI 704.60 14.73 +2.14
ND.U12 NASDAQ 100 INDEX Sep 2012 2825.5 58.0 +2.10
GH RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX 484.26 9.89 +2.08
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1099.25 21.41 +1.99
SP.Z12 S&P 500 INDEX Dec 2012 1424.0 27.6 +1.98
RG RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDEX MINI 669.75 12.72 +1.94
MD.U12 S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX Sep 2012 999.2 18.7 +1.91
LOSERS
BCX.U12 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Sep 2012 50.00 -3.25 -6.10
LH.V12 LEAN HOGS Oct 2012 71.750 -1.875 -2.55
RR.X12 ROUGH RICE Nov 2012 14.625 -0.295 -1.98
CSI.U13 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Sep 2013 2.097 -0.034 -1.60
BO.F13 SOYBEAN OIL Jan 2013 57.60 -0.60 -1.03
US.Z12 T-BONDS Dec 2012 149.37500 -1.46875 -0.97
FC.K13 FEEDER CATTLE May 2013 154.65 -0.95 -0.61
LC.V12 LIVE CATTLE Oct 2012 126.050 -0.275 -0.22
S.U12 SOYBEANS Sep 2012 1744.5 -3.5 -0.20
CL.M14 CRUDE OIL Jun 2014 93.85 -0.14 -0.15
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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WINNERS
SCL.A SHAWCOR LTD 42.15 7.07 +20.15
MW MENS WEARHOUSE 37.8208 5.9808 +18.78
NAV NAVISTAR INTL 23.98 3.57 +17.49
OREX OREXIGEN THERAPEUTICS 5.725 0.815 +16.60
BDSI BIODELIVERY SCIENCES 5.64 0.62 +12.35
MDI MAJOR DRILLING GROUP INTL 10.20 1.07 +11.72
LNCE SNYDERS-LANCE 25.12 2.62 +11.64
AGF.B AGF MGMT LTD 12.91 1.30 +11.20
AIR AAR 16.190 1.600 +10.97
WLB WESTMORELAND COAL 9.05 0.88 +10.77
LOSERS
HVU HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P 500 VIX B 10.92 -2.74 -20.06
PAY VERIFONE SYSTEMS 30.540 -4.840 -13.68
VXX.USD IPATH S&P 500 VIX MID TERM FUT 10.09 -1.39 -12.11
VXX IPATH S&P 500 VIX MID TERM FUT 9.81 -1.22 -11.06
MKTX MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS 30.39 -3.61 -10.62
HUV HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P 500 VIX 5.43 -0.62 -10.25
MTRX MATRIX SERVICE 10.40 -1.11 -9.64
WCRX WARNER CHILCOTT 12.8301 -1.3599 -9.58
NTE NAM TAI ELECTRONICS 10.19 -1.05 -9.34
SIGM SIGMA DESIGNS 6.15 -0.62 -9.16
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T H A N K Y O U
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