E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today as traders digested the latest FOMC results.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee
meeting Wednesday afternoon announced it has decided to
extend the “Twist” program of accommodative monetary policy
through the end of this year. The move was not a surprise
but the market place was volatile in the aftermath of the
midday FOMC statement. The afternoon press conference from
Fed chief Bernanke produced no major surprises. After
traders had a chance to digest the FOMC statement, most
reckoned the Fed is laying the groundwork for a more
aggressive easing of monetary policy in the near future, if
need be the case. Those notions did work to lift the
indexes off their daily lows.
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September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 11/32 at 148 21/32
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
ENERGY MARKETS
ENERGIES: August crude oil closed down $3.18 a barrel at
$81.16 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit a fresh 8.5-month low. A bearish weekly DOE report, a
firmer U.S. dollar index and a downbeat assessment of the
U.S. economy by the Federal Reserve combined to sink the
crude oil market today. The crude bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh
downside momentum today.
August heating oil closed down 506 points at $2.5836 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh 1.5-year low close. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained more momentum
today as prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart.
August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 649 points at
$2.5056 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh 8.5-month low today. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage and gained more power today. A three-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
August natural gas closed down 1.5 cents at $2.559 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh four-week high early on. Bulls have gained upside
near-term technical momentum recently to suggest a market
low is in place. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field.
CURRENCIES
CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 22 points at 1.2677 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The Euro bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
prices have been trending higher for three weeks.
The September Japanese yen closed down 68 points at 1.2599
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The September Swiss franc closed down 22 points at 1.0569
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. However, a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily
chart has been negated and prices have been trending higher
for three weeks.
The September Canadian dollar closed down 28 points at
.9777 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
did hit a fresh four-week high early on. Bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However,
prices have been trending higher for nearly three weeks.
The September British pound closed down 52 points at 1.5676
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh four-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Prices have been
trending higher for nearly three weeks.
The September U.S. dollar index closed up 22 points at
81.81 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw support on some fresh safe-haven demand after the
FOMC’s downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as
prices have been trending lower for nearly three weeks.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: August gold futures closed down $7.00 an ounce
at $1,616.00 today in volatile trading. Prices closed
nearer the session high and moved well up from the daily
low of $1,590.50 following the FOMC statement. After an
initial bearish reaction to the FOMC statement, traders
digested the wording and reckoned the Fed has indeed laid
the groundwork for more aggressive easing of monetary
policy in the near future. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was near
steady (but up from lower levels early today) and crude oil
prices were solidly lower.
July silver futures closed down $0.113 an ounce at $28.275
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today but did
hit a fresh three-week low early on. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar
index was near steady (but up from lower levels early
today) and crude oil prices were solidly lower. Trading has
turned choppy and sideways. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage.
July N.Y. copper closed down 460 points 338.70 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar
index was near steady (but up from lower levels early
today) and crude oil prices were solidly lower. Copper
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
SOFTS: July sugar closed up 5 points at 21.62 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-month high. The recent big gains have given the
sugar bulls good upside near-term technical momentum.
Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart.
July coffee closed down 600 points at 150.60 cents. Prices
closed near the session low and gave back most of Tuesday’s
big gains. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
coffee today as the U.S. dollar index was near steady (but
up from lower levels early today) and crude oil prices were
solidly lower. Coffee prices are still in an 8.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage.
July cocoa closed down $50 at $2,180 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for cocoa today as the U.S. dollar index was
near steady (but up from lower levels early today) and
crude oil prices were solidly lower. Cocoa bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage.
July cotton closed down 481 points at 83.17 cents today.
Prices hit a fresh six-week high again today and then
reversed course to close sharply lower and scored a big and
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The
recent advance in cotton was a classic “short squeeze” in
the market, whereby the sellers (shorts) were trapped in a
futures market with declining open interest.
July orange juice closed up 355 points at $1.2330 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering and speculative buying ahead of ideas a
hurricane or tropical storm could strike southeastern U.S.
citrus groves. FCOJ bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but the bulls are gaining upside
momentum to suggest a market low is in place.
July lumber futures closed up $1.00 at $274.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $262.50.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
GRAINS
GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 1 cent at $6.11
1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for corn today as the U.S.
dollar index was near steady (but up from lower levels
early today) and crude oil prices were solidly lower.
Importantly, a potentially serious weather market is
developing in the U.S. Corn Belt, amid hot, dry weather
recently. Weather in the Corn Belt the next several weeks
will trump the technicals. Corn market bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field.
July soybeans closed up 8 3/4 cents at $14.42 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh five-week high close. The recent dry and
hot weather in the Corn Belt is bullish for beans as a
serious weather market could be developing. Bean bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. If the weather
remains hot and dry in the Corn Belt, soybeans will
continue to react strongly to the upside.
July soybean meal closed down $0.40 at $427.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Meal bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage.
July bean oil closed up 18 points at 50.62 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
week high on short covering. Bean oil bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
have gained fresh upside technical momentum as a bullish
upside “breakout” from the trading range may be occurring.
July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 14 cents at $6.63 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit a fresh four-week high on more short covering.
Wheat bulls are gaining upside near-term technical momentum
as prices have seen an upside breakout from a trading
range. Bulls and bears are now on a level near-term
technical playing field.
July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 16 1/2 cents at $6.86 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-week high on more short covering. Bulls and
bears are now on a level near-term technical playing field.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.40 at
$117.10 today. The market was pressured by sagging cash
market fundamentals this week. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was
near steady (but up from lower levels early today) and
crude oil prices were solidly lower. Traders are awaiting
Friday afternoon’s USDA cattle on feed report. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently as the
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
August feeder cattle closed down $0.85 at $152.75 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh seven-week low. The big gains in corn recently have
pressured the feeders. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred in feeders recently. A bearish double-top reversal
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage.
August lean hogs closed down $0.62 at $92.15 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low on more profit-taking after
prices hit a nine-week high on Monday. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for hogs today as the U.S. dollar
index was near steady (but up from lower levels early
today) and crude oil prices were solidly lower. Hog market
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
LOSERS
CL.N12 CRUDE OIL Jul 2012 81.80 -2.23 -2.65
RB.Y$$ RBOB GASOLINE Cash 2.9046 -0.0759 -2.55
GI.U12 S&P GSCI Sep 2012 575.25 -10.75 -1.83
BAC.Y$$ ETHANOL BLENDED GASOLINE US RACK AVG Cash 2.6926 -0.0378 -1.38
HG.N12 COPPER Jul 2012 3.3875 -0.0460 -1.34
LB.X12 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Nov 2012 260.0 -3.5 -1.33
LH.Q12 LEAN HOGS Aug 2012 92.150 -0.625 -0.67
FC.Q12 FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2012 152.75 -0.85 -0.55
BNA.Y$$ BIODIESEL NATIONAL AVG Cash 3.9123 -0.0212 -0.54
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
WSCI WSI INDUSTRIES 6.7500 1.8600 +38.04
GEVO GEVO 7.70 1.78 +30.07
MDGN MEDGENICS 8.6400 1.7400 +25.22
CUI CUI GLOBAL 6.20 1.06 +20.62
MGT MGMT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS 5.1900 0.6989 +15.56
IDIX IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS 10.705 1.335 +14.25
LIVE LIVEDEAL 6.9500 0.8218 +13.41
REE RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES 5.1411 0.5711 +12.50
LGND LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS 14.50 1.60 +12.40
RES RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES LTD 5.24 0.57 +12.21
LOSERS
LZB LA-Z-BOY 11.4550 -1.6750 -12.76
RMTI ROCKWELL MEDICAL TECH 9.25 -1.21 -11.57
ETH ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS 19.66 -2.55 -11.48
GNI GREAT NORTHERN IRON ORE 79.00 -8.84 -10.06
CETV CENTRAL EUROPEAN MEDIA 5.195 -0.505 -8.86
LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICE 52.2600 -5.0800 -8.86
BXG BLUEGREEN 5.25 -0.48 -8.38
LPSN LIVEPERSON 17.36 -1.47 -7.81
FTP FORTRESS PAPER LTD 19.87 -1.61 -7.50
GGS GLOBAL GEOPHYSICAL 6.79 -0.54 -7.37
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T H A N K Y O U
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