T H U R S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 23, 2013
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 258.5K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 361.9K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 540.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 345K; previous 360K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +32K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3009000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -4K)
9:00 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:00 AM ET.1 Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. March U.S. Monthly House Price Index
House Price Index (previous 196.3)
House Price Index (MoM) (expected +0.8%; previous +0.7%)
House Price Index (YoY) (previous +7.1%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales
Overall Sales (expected 426K; previous 417K)
Percent Change (expected +2.2%; previous +1.5%)
Months’ Supply (previous 4.4)
10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.2%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1964B)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +99B)
11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Manufacturing Activity Index (previous 1)
Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 8)
Manufacturing Composite Index (previous –5)
6-Month Composite Expectations Index (previous 4)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.31T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 309.36B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.97T)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 9M)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 6M)
Primary Dealer Borrowings
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg.
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 49M)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 44B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling that a
possible short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2947.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at
3084.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
3053.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing near 3084.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2997.45. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2947.03.
The June S&P 500 posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it consolidates
some of the rally off November’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends this
year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1623.12 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
1685.50. Second resistance is will be hard to project with June extending this
year’s rally into uncharted territory. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1648.31. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1623.12.
The Dow posted a key reversal down on Wednesday but not before posting a new
all-time high. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. If
the Dow extends the rally off November’s low into uncharted territory, upside
targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 15,056 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 15,542. Second resistance will be hard
to project with the Dow trading into uncharted territory. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 15,328. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 15,056.
______________________________
June T-bonds closed down 1-10/32′s at 142-25.
June T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday extending this month’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
decline off May’s high, the 87% retracement level of the March-May rally
crossing at 141-19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 146-05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-14. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-05. First support is
today’s low crossing at 142-19. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
the March-May rally crossing at 141-19.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
July crude oil closed lower on Wednesday increasing the odds that Monday’s
high marked a double top with the early-May high. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral hinting that a double
top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13
would confirm that a double top has been posted. If June extends the rally off
April’s low, April’s high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target. First
resistance is May’s high crossing at 97.17. Second resistance is April’s high
crossing at 98.06. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 92.13.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 90.11.
June heating oil closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 281.93 are needed to confirm that a top
has been posted. If June extends the rally off April’s low, the 50% retracement
level of the February-April decline crossing at 298.06 is the next upside
target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April
decline crossing at 298.06. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the
February-April decline crossing at 304.20. First support is last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 281.93. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.97.
June unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 283.86 confirming that a short-term top has been posted.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and
are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If June renews the rally off May’s low, the 50% retracement
level of the February-May decline crossing at 296.45 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 292.76. Second resistance is
50% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 296.67. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 277.04. Second support is May’s low
crossing at 268.79.
June Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of
this week’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last week’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 4.444 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 4.036 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 4.228. Second
resistance is May’s high crossing at 4.444. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 4.036. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of
this year’s rally crossing at 3.831.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The June Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday and is testing resistance
marked by the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at
84.52.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If June extends this month’s rally, the July 2012 high
crossing at 85.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 82.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 84.52. Second resistance is
the July 2012 high crossing at 85.29. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 83.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 82.97.
The June Euro posted a key reversal down on Wednesday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June
extends the decline off May’s high, April’s low crossing at 127.51 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.11 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 130.11. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 131.98. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 127.98.
Second support is April’s low crossing at 127.51.
The June British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this month’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If June extends this month’s decline, March’s low crossing
at 1.4823 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.5379 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5242. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5379. First support is today’s low
crossing at 1.5017. Second support is March’s low crossing at 1.4823.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last week’s high, the July
2012 low crossing at .10148 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at .10527 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
.10372. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10527.
First support is today’s low crossing at .10166. Second support is the July
2012 low crossing at .10148.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below March’s low
thereby renewing this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last May’s low
crossing at 95.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 98.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.98. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.48. First support is
today’s low crossing at 96.17. Second support is last May’s low crossing at
95.30.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading
range of the past seven days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year’s decline,
monthly support crossing at .9421 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at .9975 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9791.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9975. First support
is today’s low crossing at .9640. Second support is monthly support crossing at
.9421.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
June gold closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might
be in or is near. If June extends this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at
1321.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1433.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1433.00.
Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1487.20. First support is Monday’s
low crossing at 1336.30. Second support is April’s low crossing at 1321.50.
July silver closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close set the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is
near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.442 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends this month’s decline, the
75% retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at 19.316 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
23.442. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24.835. First
support is Monday’s low crossing at 20.250. Second support is monthly support
crossing at 18.756.
July copper closed higher on Wednesday renewing the rally off May’s low. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off
this month’s low, April’s high crossing at 345.95 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.10 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
341.80. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 345.95. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.10. Second support is May’s low
crossing at 304.65.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
July coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s
decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned
decline, weekly support crossing at 11.33 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.96 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July
extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-May rally
crossing at 22.41 is July’s next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 23.54 are needed to confirm that a low has been
posted.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s decline. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends this year’s
decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 16.29 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
17.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month’s decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If July extends today’s decline, April’s low crossing
at 82.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 85.93 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
——————————
Free Video Seminar – “Avoiding Common Trading Pitfalls”
http://broadcast.ino.com/redirect/?linkid=2037
———————————————————————
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
July Corn closed up 18 1/2-cents at 6.58 1/2.
July corn closed sharply higher on Wednesday as scattered rain across the
Midwest will once again slow planting progress. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the April 1st gap crossing
at 6.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at
6.25 would confirm a downside breakout of this month’s trading range while
opening the door for a possible test of April’s low crossing at 6.10. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.69. Second resistance is the
April 1st gap crossing at 7.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at
6.25. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.10.
July wheat closed up 8-cents at 6.88 1/2.
July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this
month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.04 3/4 would confirm that
a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.04 3/4. Second resistance is April’s high crossing at 7.36 3/4. First
support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 6.74. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 6.64 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 7.43 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in
or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61 1/2 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends this month’s
decline, April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.61 1/2. Second resistance
is April’s high crossing at 7.96 3/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
7.32 1/2. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.16 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 8.07 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level
of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4 is the next upside target.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.02 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
First resistance is April’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second support is the
38% retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 1/4. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 8.02. Second support is April’s low
crossing at 7.60.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
July soybeans closed up 16-cents at 14.94 1/2.
July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off April’s
low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If
July extends the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the
aforementioned decline crossing at 15.01 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.10 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
14.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned
decline crossing at 15.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 14.36 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.10.
July soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $440.60.
July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off
April’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April’s low, the 75%
retracement level of the September-January decline crossing at 445.90 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 413.80
are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is today’s high crossing at 440.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement
level of the September-January decline crossing at 445.90. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 421.20. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 413.80.
July soybean oil closed up 16 pts. at 49.64.
July soybean closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 50.23 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.28 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 50.23.
Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 51.03. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 49.28. Second support is April’s low crossing
at 48.08.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $2.15 at $94.55.
June hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off
March’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 96.18 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 90.00 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 94.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
December-March decline crossing at 96.18. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 90.00. Second support is April’s low crossing at 88.22.
June cattle closed down $1.10 at 120.00.
June cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 121.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends
this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at 115.44 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.40. First support is
last Friday’s low crossing at 118.80. Second support is weekly support crossing
at 115.44.
August feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $144.32.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday filling Tuesday’s gap. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 147.08 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If
August extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 132.45 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
147.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 149.80. First
support is Monday’s low crossing at 142.50. Second support is weekly support
crossing at 132.45.
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
_____________________________________________________________________





