EUR/JPY could fall 15% over the next 2-3 years: Societe Generale

Quotes from Societe Generale:

- Japan’s Administration has engineered a 20% real decline in the value of the yen over the last two years in order to fight deflation. The Euro is substantially overvalued relative to the yen and as German Bund yields move closer to Japanese JGBs, a weaker Euro is both feasible and possibly the only available policy tool to fight deflation in Europe.

- With the cost of shorting the Euro now no longer an issue, the simplest way to implement is through a spot position. This is a long-term trade (1-3 years). 1-year EUR/JPY risk reversals are still priced for puts to be more expensive than calls, albeit less so than in recent years.

- EUR/USD is trading below our fair value models, falling faster than relative interest rates moved in its favour. It could correct while a recovery in global equity markets will see USD/JPY head back up towards 110. A temporary move back above 140 in EUR/JPY is a clear risk therefore if we return to a world of easy fed policy and rising equity markets.

Source: FxWire Pro

Equation for a Stock Rally – 10/24/2014

Here is the equation for the strong rally on Thursday:

Impressive corporate earnings

+ Rest of the world not falling apart just yet

= Hefty +1.2% bounce!

Thursday’s close is just 68 points south of the all-time highs. And 131 points north of the nasty low from last week. Or simply, the ugliness from the past is starting to recede in the rear view mirror.


Steve Reitmeister ( aka Reity…pronounced “Righty” )

Executive Vice President

CWS Market Review – October 24, 2014

October 24, 2014

“Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.” Benjamin Graham

In last week’s CWS Market Review, I said I thought the market’s panic had reached a peak last Wednesday, and so far, that seems to be the case. The S&P 500 has now rallied for five of the past six days. The only downer was the day of the awful shooting in Ottawa. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 had its best day in more than a year, and the index rose back above its 200-day moving average. By the end of the day on Thursday, the S&P 500 stood 130 points above last Wednesday’s low. That’s quite a turnaround.

Probably a better gauge of the change of sentiment is the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX basically doubled in a week, then was halved the following week. I thought it was interesting that stocks fell briefly late Thursday on the news of a possible Ebola case in New York City. The case has since been confirmed. I can’t prove this, but I think that same story would have caused far more damage to the market if it had occurred sometime last week.


Let me caution you that I don’t think we’re out of the woods just yet. The new Ebola case certainly won’t help, but the worst of the market’s nervousness is probably behind us. The market likes to “retest” its lower bound after it goes through a stretch of turbulence. I think there’s a good chance that could happen again.

For now, investors should be focused on third-quarter earnings. The early numbers are quite good. So far, 79% of companies in the S&P 500 have beaten their earnings expectations, while 60% have beaten their revenue estimates. For our Buy List, we had a mixed bag this week. We had good earnings from Microsoft and CR Bard, but poor earnings from IBM. I’ll run down the results in a bit. I’ll also focus on more Buy List earnings for next week. Plus, I’ll update you on Ross Stores and DirecTV. But first, let’s look at the disappointing news from IBM.

Buy List Earnings: Some Good, Some Not So Good

On Sunday evening, IBM (IBM) had a surprise announcement. The company said it was releasing its Q3 earnings on Monday morning instead of after the bell, as originally planned. Mysteriously, the company also said they had a major business announcement.

The business announcement turned out to be that they’re paying Globalfoundries Inc. $1.5 billion to take their money-losing chip-making business off their hands. Sorry IBM, but that’s not so major.

Then came the earnings report, which was very poor. For Q3, Big Blue earned $3.68 per share, which was 63 cents below expectations. Ugh! IBM also ditched their 2015 earnings target of $20 per share. That goal had been set five years ago by the previous CEO. There was no way they were going to make it.

I don’t know a better way to phrase it, but last quarter was ugly. This was IBM’s tenth straight quarter showing a decline in revenues. Quarterly revenues came in at $22.4 billion, which was nearly $1 billion below expectations.

The stock dropped 7% on Monday. The plunge cost Warren Buffett nearly $1 billion. I’m very disappointed with IBM, and I doubt they’ll be back on next year’s Buy List. I didn’t realize the problems ran so deep. I’m lowering my Buy Below on IBM to $177 per share.

Unimpressive Results from McDonald’s

IBM wasn’t the only bad earnings report. McDonald’s (MCD) had a dud, too. On Tuesday, Mickey D’s said that quarterly earnings plunged 30%. Revenue fell 5% to $6.99 billion, which was $20 million below expectations.

Excluding a bunch of charges, the burger giant earned $1.51 per share, which was 14 cents better than expectations. That’s about the only sliver of good news, but the details of MCD’s report aren’t good. Same-store sales fell by 3.3%, which was more than expected. Compare that to Chipotle (CMG), where same-store sales grew by 19.8%.

In Europe, McDonald’s same-store sales were down 1.4%, and in China, they dropped by 22.7%. There was a scandal in China involving a supplier changing expiration dates (when it rains, it pours…).

McDonald’s realizes they’re in trouble and need to turn themselves around. Their situation isn’t quite as dire as IBM’s, but they need to change course quickly. The stock didn’t get punished too badly, since it was already down so much. The big dividend helps. MCD now yields 3.7%. I’m lowering my Buy Below on MCD to $96 per share.

Good Earnings from CA Technologies, CR Bard and Microsoft

CA Technologies (CA) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 65 cents per share. That was three cents better than estimates. Technically, the company raised its earnings guidance, but the currency adjustment nullified that. CA now sees full-year earnings ranging between $2.40 and $2.47 per share. The previous range was $2.42 to $2.49 per share

CA has been a disappointment this year, but the company is still basically hitting its goals. They expect cash flow from continuing operations to rise by 5% to 12%. That’s not bad. I also like the rich dividend yield. CA Technologies is a buy up to $30 per share.

CR Bard (BCR) had another strong quarter and raised guidance. The medical-equipment company told us to expect Q3 earnings between $2.07 and $2.11 per share. In July, I said they “shouldn’t have trouble hitting that.” It turns out they earned $2.15 per share, and net sales rose 9% to $830 million. Wall Street had been expecting of $2.10 per share and revenue of $818 million.


For Q4, Bard sees earnings ranging between $2.22 and $2.26 per share. Previously Bard said to expect full-year earnings between $8.25 and $8.35 per share. Now they say earnings will range between $8.34 and $8.38 per share, and that includes 10 cents per share lost to forex. The shares gapped up 4.2% on Thursday and hit a fresh 52-week high. CR Bard remains a solid buy up to $160 per share.

After the bell on Thursday, Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 54 cents per share. That topped expectations of 49 cents per share. Revenue came in at $23.2 billion, which was over $1 billion more than expectations.

The results are pretty impressive. Microsoft is doing well across the board. Their cloud business is going especially well (revenues +128%). Shares jumped more than 3% in the after-hours market. I’m raising my Buy Below on Microsoft to $50 per share.

We also have Ford Motor (F) reporting later today. I’ll have details on the blog.

Four Buy List Earnings Reports Next Week

We have four more earnings reports coming our way next week; three of them are on Tuesday. Here’s an Earnings Calendar of our Buy List stocks for this earnings season.

On Tuesday, AFLAC (AFL) is due to report third-quarter earnings. The duck stock has been in a difficult position this year because their operations are humming along just fine. AFLAC is hitting its targets and making a steady profit. The problem has been the weak yen. AFLAC does a ton of business in Japan, and the government there has been trying to bring down its currency relative to the U.S. dollar. That means that AFLAC’s profits get stung when the money is translated from yen into dollars.

Last quarter, AFLAC only lost three cents per share due to forex—that’s a lot less than they lost in previous quarters. For Q3, the CEO said he expects operating earnings of $1.38 to $1.47 per share, assuming the yen is between 100 and 105. The exchange rate stayed close to 102 from February to August but gapped as high as 110 a few weeks ago. AFLAC currently expects full-year earnings to range between $6.16 and $6.30 per share, which means the stock is going for less than 10 times this year’s earnings.

One more point: AFLAC has increased its dividend for the last 31 years in a row. You can see why I’m such a fan. Last year, they announced their dividend increase along with their third-quarter earnings report. I doubt AFL will forego a dividend increase this year, but it may be very modest, as in one penny per share. AFLAC currently pays a 37-cent quarterly dividend, which now yields 2.5%.

Express Scripts (ESRX) was our big winner last earnings season. The pharmacy-benefits manager beat earnings by a penny per share and narrowed their full-year guidance. That was enough to spark a two-day gain of more than 7%. I think some traders had been expecting much worse results, so it was a classic relief rally. Analysts expect Q3 earnings of $1.20 per share. My numbers say it will be a bit higher.

Fiserv (FISV) is one of my favorite long-term holdings. The company consistently churns out steady profits. In July, Fiserv said they expect full-year earnings to range between $3.31 and $3.37 per share. That’s a nice increase from $2.99 per share last year. Wall Street expects 84 cents per share for Q3. That sounds about right.

Moog (MOG-A) usually reports its earnings on Friday just after I send you the newsletter, but I don’t want you to feel I’m neglecting this stock. Shares of Moog have been especially hot lately, and they’re not far from hitting a new all-time high. This next report will be for their fiscal Q4. The company said they expect full-year earnings of $3.65 per share. Since Moog already made $2.59 per share for the first three quarters, that means they expect $1.06 per share for Q4. Moog expects earnings growth of another 16% for the current fiscal year. There aren’t many stocks doing that.

Updates on DirecTV and Ross Stores

AT&T (T) had a poor earnings report and lower guidance, which knocked the stock down. Unfortunately, that also impacts DirecTV (DTV). According to the merger deal, AT&T will pay $95 per share for each share of DTV. The deal is for cash and AT&T stock, but there’s a collar in place to protect both parties.

Here’s how it works: If AT&T is below $34.90 per share when the deal closes—and we still don’t know when that will be but I assume it will be sometime in 2015—then DTV shareholders get $28.50 in cash plus 1.905 shares of AT&T. With the lower AT&T share price share, that comes to $92.62, going by Thursday’s close.

That’s the problem with using stock in a buyout; you’re tied to the fortunes of the other guy. I won’t venture to guess how low AT&T can fall, but I’ll note that at this lower price, the stock yields nearly 5.5%.

Don’t worry about DirecTV. It’s still doing well. I’m lowering our Buy Below to $90 per share to better reflect the current market. DTV reports earnings on November 6.

Remember all the trouble we had with Ross Stores (ROST) earlier this year? In July, the stock got as low as $61.83 per share. Fortunately, the earnings report in August was very good, and the deep discounter raised guidance. The shares have been doing very well every since, and this week, ROST broke above $81 per share. This is why we follow the fundamentals instead of panicking at every blip. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Ross Stores to $83 per share. Fiscal Q4 earnings are due in another month.

That’s all for now. The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and they’ll very likely announce the end of QE. Stay turned. The Fed’s decision will come on Wednesday at 2 p.m. On Thursday, we’ll get the initial report of Q3 GDP growth. There’s another durable-goods report on Tuesday, plus many more earnings reports. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Named by CNN/Money as the best buy-and-hold blogger, Eddy Elfenbein is the editor of Crossing Wall Street. His free Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 for the last seven years in a row. This email was sent by Eddy Elfenbein through Crossing Wall Street.
2223 Ontario Road NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Quartz Daily Brief—#Ebola reaches New York, #Amazon tests patience, vaping IPO, ugly dinosaurs

Quartz -
Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Canadian lawmakers put on a brave face. Lawmakers and public servants return to work in the aftermath of Wednesday’s shooting in Ottowa. Canada plans to introduce legislation to boost police and intelligence services’ powers to counter terrorist threats.

Rating agency skepticism of Russia. Standard & Poor’s is due to weigh in on the quality of Russia’s sovereign debt. Last week, Moody’s cut its rating, citing “the military confrontation in Ukraine and escalating sanctions.” The collapse in oil prices also isn’t helping (paywall).

Brazil’s presidential candidates take the stage. In the last debate before the country’s Oct. 26 elections, Brazilians will watch incumbent Dilma Rousseff battle challenger Aecio Neves. Rousseff has new wind in her sails: Brazil’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.9% in September.

British GDP stats. Analysts expect that the British economy grew by 3% in the third quarter, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter, due to weak British consumer demand and more European malaise.

A vaping IPO. E-cigarette maker Electronic Cigarettes International Group (ECIG) will start trading on the NASDAQ after a listing that could raise $150 million.

Earnings, earnings, and more earnings. Companies slated to announce their quarterly results include Choice Hotels, Colgate-Palmolive, Ford, Omnicare, Procter & Gamble, United Parcel Service (UPS), and Wyndham Worldwide.

While you were sleeping

New York City had its first Ebola case… Dr. Craig Spencer, who was been working with Doctors Without Borders in Guinea, was rushed to the hospital by emergency services workers in protective gear after developing a high fever. City health officials confirmed that he tested positive for Ebola, but said the risk to the public was minimal. Spencer took the subway to a bowling alley on Wednesday night, but he was not running a fever at the time and was therefore not infectious.

…And so did Mali. A two-year-old girl who traveled to Guinea has also tested positive for Ebola. Mali, one of the poorest countries in the world, is now the sixth West African nation to record a recent case of the virus; Senegal and Nigeria have since been declared Ebola-free.

China’s property prices fell. New home prices nationwide were down 1.3% in September (paywall) year-on-year, falling in 69 of the 70 cities surveyed. That compares to price declines in 68 cities in August and 64 in July. China’s property industry is crucial for supporting local government budgets and driving overall economic growth.

AMC took control of BBC America. The US cable network that is home to “Mad Men” agreed to pay $200 million for a 49.9% stake and operational control of the UK public broadcaster’s US channel. The remainder will continue to be owned by BBC Worldwide, the BBC’s commercial arm.

Shinzo Abe suffered his third scandal in a week. An aide to Japan’s trade minister spent public money at a sadomasochistic sex club and later claimed for it on official expenses. The minister, Yoichi Miyazawa, has only been on the job for three days; his predecessor was forced to resign for misuse of public funds.

Amazon tested investors’ patience. Shares plummeted after the online retail giant posted a $437 million quarterly loss, its biggest in 14 years. Some doubters call Jeff Bezos’ company a ponzi scheme; others call it the future.

Microsoft’s cloud is booming.  The company’s quarterly earnings beat expectations, at $0.54 per share. Revenue was up 25% from a year ago, boosted in part by an 128% increase in cloud services.

Quartz obsession interlude

Matt Phillips on why Indians earn more than other ethnic groups in America. “Education levels among those who identify as Indian are incredibly high: Roughly 76% of those above the age of 25 have graduated from college. ‘For these ethnic groups, education explains most of the wage differences, since on average Indian, Japanese, and Chinese workers have higher levels of education than the rest of the labor force (education explains half to three-quarters of the observed wage gaps),’ Department of Labor analysts wrote.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

The web has come full circle. Facebook’s launch of anonymous interest group “Rooms” proves a yearning for Web 1.0.

Inheritances aren’t causing inequality. They’re actually helping the less well-off.

The Blackwater verdict is just a start. America needs to learn to manage its mercenaries.

Canada’s gun culture isn’t toxic like America’s. Violence is low because Canadians trust their government.

Anti-Tesla car dealerships are fighting a losing battle. Direct sales to consumers are the way of the future.

Surprising discoveries

Email addresses can be recycled. Facebook and Yahoo are trying to make it safe.

Living with a smoker is like moving to Beijing. At least for your lungs.

Whales are huge because they have no seaborne predators. The 50-foot Megalodon shark went extinct 2.6 million years ago.

Time to rewrite dinosaur textbooks again. To make room for this really ugly one.

Click here for more surprising discoveries on Quartz.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, old email addresses, and ugly dinosaurs toys to You can follow us on Twitter here for updates throughout the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

MONETARIO – Cosa succede oggi venerdì 24 ottobre 24/10/2014 – RSF

LEGGE STABILITA’ – Entro la giornata odierna, che vede Renzi impegnato al Consiglio Ue, il governo italiano deve rispondere ai rilievi avanzati da Bruxelles sulla legge di Stabilità tramite una lettera in cui la Commissione punta il dito contro la”significativa deviazione” dagli obiettivi di bilancio di medio termine, chiedendo un chiarimento sulle modalità con cui Roma intenda rispettare pienamente gli impegni assunti a livello Ue (news). Una sponda al governo arriva da Bankitalia, che vede un Pil lievemente negativo nel terzo trimestre, e reputa la decisione di rinviare il pareggio di bilancio motivata dall’eccezionale durata e profondità della recessione.

RATING – Atteso a mercati chiusi il pronunciamento diFitch sul rating italiano e spagnolo. L’agenzia di rating valuta Italia e Spagna entrambe con ‘BBB+’ e outlook stabile. Lo scorso 10 ottobre Dbrs ha confermato il rating ‘A (low)’ dell’Italia, mentre il 5 dicembre si aspetta il pronunciamepnto di S&P, il cui rating sull’Italia è ‘BBB’ con outlook negativo.

MALUMORI AL TESORO? – Secondo una ricostruzione di ‘Repubblica’, Roberto Codogno, capo della programmazione economica e finanziaria, avrebbe presentato a più riprese le propriedimissioni, a segnalare i malumori e i dubbi tra i funzionari di via XX Settembre rispetto alla manovra, che riguarderebbero sia le coperture sia le stime del Pil. Un portavoce del ministero dell’Economia ha comunque smentito che Codogno abbia maichiesto di andarsene.

BOND ITALIA – Chiusa la settima edizione del Btp Italia, si ritorna a respirare aria di aste. In serata arriveranno infatti i quantitativi dell’asta Bot prevista mercoledì prossimo, mentre ieri sera il Tesoro haannunciato che, in occasione dell’asta del 28 ottobre, offrirà fra 2,5 e 3,5 miliardi i Ctz e Btpei a 10 e a 15 anni. Lo spread Btp/Bund decennale ripartirà invece da 162 punti base.

PIL GB – Dal lato macro, protagonista sarà la GranBretagna, di cui è in arrivo il preliminare del Pil del terzo trimestre. Le attese sono per un rallentamento del ritmo di crescita congiunturale a 0,7% e al 3,0% tendenziale, dai 0,9% e 3,2% rispettivamente segnati nel secondo trimestre.

DATI CINA – Continuano ad arrivare segnali di rallentamento dal mercato immobiliare cinese, che pesa per circa il 15% della seconda economia mondiale. A settembre la media dei prezzi delle case nelle 70 principali città ha segnato una caduta mensile di 1,3% dopo l’incremento dello 0,5% di agosto. Si tratta della quinta frenata mensile consecutiva e riportandosi in territorio negativo per la prima volta da novembre 2012.

CASO EBOLA A NY – Primo caso di positività al virus Ebola nellagrande Mela, dove un trentatrenne, rientrato dalla Guinea il 17 ottobre dove ha lavorato per Medici Senza Frontiere, è ora in isolamento al Bellevue Hospital.

GREGGIO – Quotazioni petrolifere in calo in Asia, a segnalare il nervosismo degliinvestitori alla notizia del primo caso di febbre emorragica a Manhattan. I futures sul Brent cedno 32 centesimi a 86,52 dollari il barile <LCOc1>: i derivati del Nymex scivolano di 43 centesimi a 81,66 dollari il barile <CLc1>.

FOREX – Esempre I timori innescati dal primo caso di positività all’Ebola a New York hanno spinto lo yen lontano dai minimi da due settimane sul dollaro, a segnalare l’appetito degli investitori per gli asset rifugio. Intorno alle 7,30 il dollaro cede a 108,00 yen da 108,25 dell’ultima chiusura <JPY=>. La valuta nipponica si apprezza anche sull’euro che cede a 136,64 yen da 136,89 dell’ultima chiusura <EURJPY=>. Euro/dollaro <EUR=> a 1,2657 da 1,2644.

TREASURIES – Chiusura negativa per iTreasuries, sebbene sotto i minimi di seduta per i timori su Ebola, a fronte dei numeri positivi arrivati dal mercato del lavoro, con le richieste continuate di sussidi alla disoccupazioni a minimi dalla fine del 2000. Il decennale benchmark haterminato la seduta in calo di 15/32, per un rendimento di 2,284% <US10YT=RR>

Istat, commercio al dettaglio agosto (10,00).

Istat, retribuzioni contrattuali settembre (11,00).

Istat, fiducia dei consumatori ottobre (12,00) – attesa 101,0.

Fiducia consumatori Gfk novembre (8,00) – attesa 8,0.

Pil preliminare 3° trimestre (10,30) – attesa 0,7% t/t; 3,0% a/a.

Vendite nuove abitazioni settembre (16,00) – attesa 0,740 milioni.

Prezzi case settembre (3,30).

Tesoro, annuncio quantitativi Bot in asta 29 ottobre.

Zona euro, Praet interviene a convegno a Università Bocconi a Milano (10,20).

Giornata delle Nazioni Unite.

Italia, Fitch si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Milano, convegno in Bocconi “Cambiamentistrutturali nel settore bancario”; aprono i lavori Praet, Del Punta (dalle 10,00).

Assogestioni annuncia dati raccolta fondi e gestioni settembre (11,00).

Austria, Moody’s si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Germania,Moody’s si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Spagna, Fitch si pronuncia su rating sovrano.

Bruxelles, termina riunione Consiglio Ue; a seguire vertice leader eurozona.

Bruxelles, Renzi partecipa a forum su “Talenti e imprenditoria in Europa:una via per la crescita”.

Sul sito altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche

STOCKS TO WATCH – Venerdì 24 ottobre, 24/10/2014 – RSF

******** INDICI 23 OTTOBRE ******
FTSE Mib 19.434,98 +0,88%
FTSEurofirst 300 1.317,28 +0,65%
Euro STOXX 50 3.044,30 +1,19%
Dow Jones 16.677,90 +1,32%
S&P 500 1.950,82 +1,23%
Le borse europee sono attese in calo sulla scia delle borse asiatiche e della notizia che a New York un medico rientrato dall’Africa Occidentale è risultato positivo all’Ebola.

Di seguito, i titoli in evidenza a Piazza Affari nella seduta del 24 ottobre.

Le integrazioni sono contrassegnate con (*)

(*) BANCHE – I quotidiani si lanciano nellespeculazioni sulle banche che potrebbero non aver superato gli stress test dopo che ieri sera sono arrivate ai top manager le prime comunicazioni: tra i nomi più ricorrenti, ci sono Montespaschi e Carige. Il Corriere scrive che Carige potrebbechiudere oggi la vendita delle attività assicurative ad Apollo. Il Messaggero ipotizza che in caso di bocciatura, Mps potrebbe ricorrere alla vendita di attivi a banche terze ed emettere particolari bond, mentre Carige potrebbe fare un nuovo aumento.

FIAT CHRYSLER (FCA.MI) – EXOR (EXO.MI) ha precisato in un filing alla Sec che i suoi poteri di voto sono pari al 47,69% del totale, dopo l’attribuzione delle loyalty shares per effetto della fusione di Fiat in Fca. (news) L’AD Sergio Marchionne ha una partecipazione nella società che può arrivare fino a 23,7 milioni di azioni, pari a circa l’1,5% del totale dei diritti di voto, dallo 0,4% attuale, secondo un filing alla Sec di ieri. (news)

LUXOTTICA(LUX.MI) – Claudio Del Vecchio promuove le nuove nomine ai vertici e sottolinea che né lui né gli altri figli del fondatore del gruppo hanno ambizioni nell’azienda. (news)

UNICREDIT (UCG.MI)/PRELIOS (PRS.MI) – UniCredit ha scelto la cordata Prelios-Fortress per avviare trattative esclusive sulla cessione di Uccmb, la società del gruppo che gestisce i crediti anomali, e si sta lavorando in queste ore su alcuni dettagli prima dell’avvio formale dei negoziati conclusivi. L’orientamento a scegliere Prelios-Fortress è stato confermato dal Ceo Federico Ghizzoni. (news)

(*) MPS (BMPS.MI) – In un’intervista a MF, il sindaco di Siena Bruno Valentini dice che sarebbe ‘ingeneroso’ ritenere responsabili l’AD Fabrizio Viola e il presidente Alessandro Profumo di un’eventuale bocciatura nei stress test.

TELECOM ITALIA (TIT.MI) – E’ in trattative avanzate per la vendita delle torri di telefonia mobile della controllata in Brasile Tim Brasil epotrebbe siglare l’accordo nell’arco di settimane. Lo riferiscono a Reuters tre fonti a diretta conoscenza della situazione. (news)
Scade oggi la proroga concessa a Fintech per acquisizione di Telecom Argentina. Secondo il Sole 24 Orela novità degli ultimi negoziati è una opzione call. A Fintech passerà subito il 17% di Sofora – holding a monte di Telecom Argentina – mentre a Telecom Italia resterà il 51% per un massimo di 30 mesi. Se entro la scadenza fissata non saranno arrivate tutte le autorizzazioni allora Telecom potrà esercitare una call per ricomprare da Fintech il 17% di Sofora oppure cercare un terzo acquirente di comune accordo.

SAIPEM (SPM.MI) – Al momento non è sul mercato e Rosneft attende che siaformulata una proposta. Lo ha detto Igor Sechin, numero uno del colosso dell’energia petrolifera russa. (news)
Nel frattempo – spiega Sechin al Sole 24 ore – il gruppo russo valuta anche una collaborazione con Saipem.

ENI(ENI.MI) – In un’intervista al Corriere della Sera Sechin spiega che il gruppo italiano è frenato dalle sanzioni alla Russia, ma starebbe cercando di ottenere “tutte le licenze necessarie” per poter lavorare “su base legale” nel mare di Barents e nelMar Nero con Rosneft. E sottolinea di non aver progetti congiunti con l’Eni sulla raffinazione.

POP MILANO (PMI.MI) – Blackrock ha limato la propria partecipazione portandola al 4,959% dal 5,149% che deteneva a maggio scorso.(news)

TERNA (TRN.MI) – L’offerta per l’acquisizione del 66% di Admie, la società greca che gestisce la rete di trasporto, deve essere presentata entro l’1 dicembre. Lo ha detto l’AD Matteo Del Fante. (news)
GTECH (GTK.MI) – Ha convocato le assemblee degli obbligazionisti detentori dei bond garantiti emessi dalla società sulle scadenze 2018 e 2020 “per deliberare su alcuni aspetti in relazione all’operazione” in corso per l’acquisizione di Igt.(news)

INDESIT (IND.MI) – Per effetto dell’acquisto da parte di Whirlpool Italia Holdings di una partecipazione del 60,4%, si è verificato un evento di ‘cambio di controllo’ con riferimento alle obbligazioni a tasso fisso di durataquinquennale emesse dal gruppo di Fabriano per 300 milioni e i portatori dei titoli possono quindi richiederne il rimborso anticipato. (news)

AMPLIFON (AMP.MI) – Ha archiviato il terzo trimestre con risultati migliori delle attese e si attende che il trend positivo possa seguire anche nel quarto trimestre, tradizionalmente importante per il gruppo. Inoltre, dopo l’ampliamento della rete in India, Francia e Germania annunciato, il gruppo continua a tenere alta l’attenzione sull’espansione per linee esterne e prepara lo sbarco in Brasile: secondo una fonte, la società è infatti in trattative avanzate per l’acquisizione di una quota di maggioranza nella brasiliana Direito de Ouvir. (news)

PIAGGIO(PIA.MI) – Ha chiuso i 9 mesi con Ebit e ricavi in riduzione a causa dell’impatto dei tassi di cambio e con un utile netto appesantito dai costi non ricorrenti legati al rimborso anticipato del bond in scadenza a dicembre 2016. (news)

SARAS (SRS.MI) – E’ un buon asset per Rosneft e c’è grande rispetto nei confronti della famiglia Moratti, principali azionisti della società. A dirlo è Igor Sechin, numero uno del gigante del petrolio russo. (news)

MOVIEMAX(MMG.MI) – Ha confermato in una nota l’uscita di tre nuovi film che saranno distribuiti nei prossimi mesi nelle sale cinematografiche italiane. Si tratta dell’horror La metamorfosi del male, del cartone animato Postino Pat e Fury con Brad Pitt.(news)

Cda trimestrali Autostrade Meridionali, Pms.

Juventus, assemblea ordinaria.

Risultati Ericsson.

Risultati Ford, P&G, UPS.


Sul sito le altre notizie Reuters in italiano. Le top news anche

Websim Focus sui Mercati Finanziari 24/10/2014 – WS

Torna la paura di ebola e Wall Street frena nel finale, chiudendo comunque una seduta molto positiva grazie alle trimestrali di molti big. Dow Jones +1,3%, S&P500 +1,2%, Nasdaq +1,3%. L’indice Russell 2000 ha fatto meglio di tutti mettendo a segno un brillante +1,8%.

Nuovo record storico per Apple a 105 dollari e per Facebook a 80,63 dollari. Amazon si è schiantata del 10% nell’after hours dopo risultati trimestrali deludenti.

L’S&P500 ha ceduto circa mezzo punto dai top intraday in seguito alla notizia di un sospetto caso di ebola a New York: Craig Spencer, un medico di 33 anni recentemente tornato dall’Africa occidentale, è stato trovato positivo ai controlli accurati svolti nella notte.

Asia. Borse contrastate stamattina: Tokio +1%, Hong Kong -0,1%, Shanghai +0,5%, Seul -0,5%, Mumbai è chiusa per festività.

I future sulle borse europee anticipano un avvio in calo dello 0,5% alla vigilia degli attesissimi stress test che alla fine dei conti potrebbero anche rivelarsi un fuoco di paglia.

Analisi tecnica borse. Ieri si sono viste altre indicazioni di forza e fa piacere segnalare che stavolta provengono dalle borse europee, sia core che periferiche, grazie ai dati macro. Ottimo il recupero di Wall Street. Si riprende anche Tokio. Frana la borsa brasiliana piegata dalle incertezze elettorali.

Dax (9.048, +1,20%). Grazie a 5 rialzi in 6 sedute si riporta all’interno del range 9mila/10mila, annullando i recenti segnali di allerta. Gli acquisti suggeriti sui supporti in area 8.800 cominciano a dare i loro frutti. Obiettivo di breve verso 9.500.

Russell 2000 (1.116, +1,8%). Riparte deciso e punta alla parte alta del range 1.100/1.150 che rappresenta il primo scoglio grafico nonché la nostra area di presa di profitto. Supporti e area di acquisto verso 1.050.
S&P500 (1.950, +1,2%). Resta saldamente all’interno del range 1.900/2mila punti confermando le indicazioni distensive. Obiettivo verso i top a 2mila punti. Prima allerta in caso di ritorno sotto 1.890. Inversione del trend rialzista solo sotto 1.735.

FtseMib (19.434, +0,9%). Torna sui livelli del 9 ottobre e consolida il ritorno sopra area 19mila. E’ rimbalzato dell’11% dai minimi della scorsa settimana. Obiettivo di breve 20mila. Fascia supportiva verso 18.800/18.700.

Brasile (Bovespa 50.713 -3,3%). L’incertezza dell’esito del ballottaggio e vendite diffuse sugli emergenti hanno fatto piombare l’indice sui minimi da aprile. Scattato lo stop loss prudenziale sotto 52mila punti. Vedremo quale sarà il risultato del ballottaggio prima di decidere la nuova strategia.

Variabili macro.

Petrolio. Forte reazione ieri: il Wti è salito del 2% a 82 usd. Il brent ha guadagnato il 2,5% spingendosi fino a 86,80 dollari. Dopo 4 settimane negative prende corpo l’atteso rimbalzo, ma non cambiamo la nostra idea prudente sul trend di lungo periodo.

Oro (1.230 usd). Il rimbalzo delle borse e soprattutto del dollaro frenano la corsa. L’obiettivo di breve resta verso 1.300 usd. Manteniamo la posizione aperta a 1.180 usd. Alziamo lo stop sui livelli di ingresso da 1.150 usd.

Forex. Euro/Dollaro (1,266). Il dollaro conserva i recenti progressi. Nessuna novità grafica. Al momento prevale il range di “consolidamento” tra 1,25 e 1,29. Il movimento di fondo è decisamente favorevole al biglietto verde. Sfrutteremo discese verso 1,30 per comprare dollari. Target finale di medio periodo a 1,20.

Bond periferici. Anche la seduta di ieri ha decretato la fine delle turbolenze. Lo spread sul Btp è piatto a 161 punti base. Per fine anno prevediamo uno spread più vicino a 100 che a 200 punti base.