M O N D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 22, 2013
8:30 AM ET. Mar Chicago Fed National Activity Index
National Activity Index (previous 0.44)
3 Month Moving Average (previous 0.09)
10:00 AM ET. Mar Existing Home Sales
Total Sales (previous 4.98M)
Percent Change (previous +0.8%)
Month’s Supply (previous 4.7)
Median Price (previous 173600)
Median Price – Yearly % Chg (previous +11.6%)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
U.S. STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it
rebounds off last Thursday’s low and at the same time extends the uptrend
channel, which began in November. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bearish signaling that additional strength is needed before these two momentum
indicators turn bullish again. If June extends Thursday’s decline below channel
support crossing at 2744.42, February’s low crossing at 2683.50 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2803.22
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 2803.22. Second resistance is April’s high
crossing at 2858.50. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 2724.00.
Second support is February’s low crossing at 2683.50.
The June S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
June extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1529.60 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
1561.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1561.46. Second resistance
is April’s high crossing at 1592.50. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 1531.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.60.
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June T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off
March’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If June extends
the rally off March’s low, December’s high crossing at 149-11 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-11 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December’s
high crossing at 149-11. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at
149-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-14. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-11.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
May crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If May extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the June-September 2011 rally crossing at 83.55 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.75 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 90.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 92.75. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 85.61.
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September 2011 rally
crossing at 83.55.
May heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off February’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February’s high,
the 87% retracement level of the June-February rally crossing at 267.10 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.43
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 284.36. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 292.43. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 272.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 267.10.
May unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off February’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness
is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February’s high, the 75%
retracement level of the June-February rally crossing at 260.76 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.70 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 280.34. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 290.70. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 270.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
June-February rally crossing at 260.76.
May Henry natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidated some of the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 4.602 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 4.106 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 4.4290.
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 4.602. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 4.211. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 4.106.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week’s breakout
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.75. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
June extends the rally off last week’s low, this month’s high crossing at 83.66
is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
82.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the
door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 82.97. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 83.66.
First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 81.78. Second support is the
50% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.38.
The June Euro was lower overnight and is poised to extend last Wednesday’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
129.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the
rally off this month’s low, the 50% retracement level of the February-April
decline crossing at 132.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the
50% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing at 132.43. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April decline crossing
at 133.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.82.
Second support is this month’s low crossing at 127.51.
The June British Pound was slightly higher due to short covering overnight
as it consolidates some of last Friday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June
extends last Friday’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.5027 is June’s
next downside target. If June renews the rally off March’s low, the 50%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5564 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
January-March decline crossing at 1.5388. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5564. First
support is the March-April uptrend line crossing near 1.5180. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 1.5027.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last
week’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10669 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June
renews the rally off March’s low, the 75% retracement level of the
February-March decline crossing at .10912 is the next upside target. First
resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing
at .10912. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March
decline crossing at .10987. First support is the overnight low crossing at
.10702. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10669.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics
and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If June extends last week’s decline, March’s low
crossing at 96.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 98.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.02. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 99.02. First support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 96.90. Second support is March’s low crossing at
96.46.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends last week’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If June renews this year’s decline, monthly
support crossing at .9867 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10334 would confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10334. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at .10809. First support is April’s
low crossing at .10008. Second support is monthly support crossing at .9867.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
June gold was higher overnight as it extends last week’s rebound off the 50%
retracement level of the 2008-2011-rally crossing at 1374.60. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1520.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If April renews this month’s decline, monthly support crossing at
1285.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1456.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1520.00. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 1321.50.
Second support is monthly support crossing at 1285.60.
May silver was higher overnight as it extends last week’s trading range.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the
aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 18.756 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.357 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 24.960. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 26.357. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at
22.000. Second support is monthly support crossing at 18.756.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February’s
high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the
day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the
decline off February’s high, weekly support crossing at 299.40 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 333.88 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 328.91. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 333.88. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 306.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at 299.40.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
May coffee posted a key reversal up on Friday. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.55 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below today’s low would
open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing 128.25.
May cocoa closed higher on Friday extending the rally off March’s low. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally
off March’s low, the 50% retracement level of September-March decline crossing
at 23.76 is May’s next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 22.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Friday. The
high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week’s
decline, this month’s low crossing at 17.47 is the next downside target. If May
renews the rally off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at 18.49 is
the next upside target.
May cotton closed unchanged on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March’s high, the 50%
retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at 82.52 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.22 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past
eight days. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing
at 6.66 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. However, it
will take closes above the April 1st gap crossing at 6.95 1/2 to confirm that a
low has been posted. If May renews this month’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2012 rally crossing at 5.99 3/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.66 3/4. Second resistance is
April 1st gap crossing at 6.95 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing
at 6.26 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2012 rally
crossing at 5.99 3/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extended the trading range of the past
three weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews
the rally off this month’s low, March’s high crossing at 7.41 3/4 is the next
upside target. If May renews the decline off November’s high, last May’s low
crossing at 6.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 7.16. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 7.41 3/4.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 6.59 3/4. Second support is last
May’s low crossing at 6.65.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 7.46.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If May renews the rally off April’s low, March’s high crossing at 7.76 3/4 is
the next upside target. If May renews this winter’s decline, last May’s low
crossing at 6.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday’s
high crossing at 7.53 1/2. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 7.76
3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7.18 1/2. Second support is
this month’s low crossing at 7.09 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this
month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If May extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the
July-April decline crossing at 8.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.98 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the
July-April decline crossing at 8.26. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.60. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.98 3/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at
7.61 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
May soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off
this month’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and
the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If May extends the rally off this month’s low, the reaction
high crossing at 14.59 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.06 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 14.41 1/2.
Second resistance is the late-March high crossing at 14.59 3/4. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.06 3/4. Second support is this
month’s low crossing at 13.54 1/2.
May soybean meal was steady overnight but remains poised to extend the rally
off this month’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If May extends last week’s rally the reaction high crossing at 427.00 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 402.00
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 417.20. Second resistance is the late-March high
crossing at 427.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
403.30. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 402.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the
past two months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If May renews last week’s decline, November’s low crossing at 47.85
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
49.55 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 49.55. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 50.23. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 48.00.
Second support is November’s low crossing at 47.85.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $0.40 at $90.20.
June hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
June extends this week’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 92.70 is the next
upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 88.22 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at
91.00. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 92.70. First support
is Monday’s low crossing at 88.22. Second support is March’s low crossing at
87.20.
June cattle closed down $0.07 at 121.30.
June cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June
extends this week’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 124.50 is the next
upside target. If June cattle resume this year’s decline, weekly support
crossing at 118.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday’s
high crossing at 122.00. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at
124.50. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 119.40. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 118.95.
May feeder cattle closed down $0.85 at $139.20.
May Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Friday, spiking below
March’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Closes below March’s low crossing at 138.90 would open
the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 142.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.72. Second
resistance is gap resistance crossing at 144.50. First support is today’s low
crossing at 138.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 133.10.
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T H A N K Y O U
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