Stock Consolidation Over… Maybe – 08/26/2013

he S&P finally got back on top of its 50 day moving average after a week under the mark.

Will it hold?

The economic calendar next week holds the answer to that question as we will be served up a wide array of worthwhile reports. Housing data and GDP being the most meaningful.

Monday: Durable Goods

Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: Pending Home Sales

Thurday: Jobless Claims, Q2 GDP first revision

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

If all goes well, then we will likely retrace towards the recent highs of 1709. If not, then we’ll consolidate a while longer with the long term bull still intact.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

Annunci

Economic Buffet Starts Wednesday – 07/31/2013

On Tuesday investors had light fare to chew on with Redbook (retail sales), Consumer Confidence and Home Price Index reports. Each was solid, but not fortifying enough to break out of the recent trading range.

Wednesday provides a more substantial diet of economic reports including ADP Employment, Q2 GDP, and FOMC Meeting Announcement. This gets followed up Thursday with a serving of Jobless Claims, ISM Mfg, PMI Mfg, and Construction Spending. Then for dessert on Friday we get Government Employment, Personal Income & Outlays, and Factory Orders.

The quality of these reports will give us a green light to finally break above 1700. Or it may scare investors into a steeper correction before the 4 ½ year bull rally continues.

I like the odds of a b reakout occurring as I moved back towards 100% invested by adding three new top ranked stocks to my portfolio Tuesday. Yet I still have some cash on hand in case I can snag some quality shares on any temporary pullback.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity…pronounced “Righty”)

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed Day

 

 

The S&P 500 closed up less than a single point on the day. The index traded as much as 0.4% higher in early trading, but faded throughout the day on no specific news before rising into the close.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index recorded year-over-year growth of 12.2% versus the 12.4% consensus. In reaction, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) outperformed the market today, up 1.0% at the close.

Consumer confidence came in at 80.3, which was slightly less than the 81.0 consensus.

In commodities, crude oil dropped $1.40 to $103.15 per barrel while gold fell 0.2% to $1,326 per ounce.The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 2 bps to 2.60%.

Facebook (FB) finished up 5% on the day, climbing as high as $37.66. This is the closest the stock has traded to its IPO price of $38 since going public more than a year ago.

Coach (COH) tumbled 8.5% after releasing disappointing earnings before the market open.

In a continuation of its volatile action, the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.5% despite Japan) reporting disappointing household spending, unemployment, and industrial production.

The PMI manufacturing index will be released at 7:15 p.m. EDT tonight.

The ADP employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:15 a.m. EDT tomorrow morning. Private payrolls are expected to rise by 179K.

GDP will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with second-quarter growth expected to come in at 1.1%.

The Chicago PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The index is expected to record a reading of 54.0 after seeing 51.6 last month.

The FOMC will be making an announcement regarding its monetary policy at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The target federal funds rate is expected to remain unchanged, though traders will be watching for details regarding tapering of QE activities.

Mastercard (MA), Questcor (QCOR), Sodastream (SODA) and Yelp (YELP) will be releasing earnings tomorrow.

The Rally Stalls

The S&P 500 continued the trend seen over the past few days. The index bottomed just before noon and rallied throughout the afternoon.

However, unlike on Thursay and Friday, the push higher stalled out and the S&P finished down 0.4% at 1685.

The pending home sales index came in better than expected at -0.4% versus the -1.4% consensus. However, last month’s increase of 6.7% was revised down to 5.8%. This drove underperformance in housing and financial stocks.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in worse than expected with a reading of 4.4 versus the 6.4 forecast by economists.

Gold rose $8 on the day to $1,330 per ounce. The 10-year yield rose 3 bps on the day to 2.59%. Crude oil was little changed on the day, closing at $104.60 per barrel.

Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) reported earnings that fell short of analysts’ estimates, sending shares down 3% on the day.

Japanese household spending, unemployment rate, and industrial production will be released later tonight. The Nikkei 225 dropped 3.2% on the day, which was its second consecutive 3% decline, so more volatility is likely on the way.

 

The FOMC meeting will begin tomorrow morning.

On the data front, the ICSC-Goldman Retail Chain Store Sales and Redbook Index will be released tomorrow morning, as will the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and The State Street Investor Confidence Index.

AFLAC (AFL), Coach (COH), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE) are a few of the major companies releasing earnings tomorrow.

Quartz Daily Brief—Berlusconi’s comeuppance, the Fed’s messaging, Japan’s industry, McDonald’s caloric bargain

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Crunch time for Berlusconi. Italy’s supreme court decides whether the former prime minister will face jail and a ban from public office for tax fraud, a move that could threaten the survival of the ruling coalition.

JP Morgan pulls out the checkbook. US authorities say it used improper bidding tactics in US energy trading between 2010 and 2011, and the bank is expected to offer a settlement for $400 million or more.

The Fed works on its communications skills. The US central bank is likely to announce that its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program will continue, although it may attempt some better messaging (paywall) this time. The consumer confidence index for July and the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for May are also due.

India’s central bank holds on tight. The Reserve Bank is expected to leave the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 7.25% as it tries to prop up the falling rupee.

Barclays scrounges for fresh capital. The British bank is reportedly looking to raise up to £5 billion ($7.68 billion) to boost its leverage ratio (paywall) to mandatory minimums levels. Barclays, along with Deutsche Bank, UBS and Banco Santander, will also report second quarter earnings.

A dejected BP. The energy giant’s second quarter earnings are likely to take a hit from paying more compensation for damages related to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster. BP may have shirked some liability now that Halliburton, its partner in the well, has confessed to destroying evidence related to the disaster.

Bradley Manning faces the fire. Legal experts believe the US soldier accused of leaking more than 700,000 sensitive documents to WikiLeaks will be found guilty on at least some of 21 criminal counts, including aiding the enemy, which carries a life sentence.

While you were sleeping

Japan’s industry flagged. Output fell by 3.3% in June from the month before due to reduced auto production, in the biggest fall since March 2011, although figures were affected by May’s impressive performance. Meanwhile, unemployment fell to a seasonally adjusted 3.9%, slightly better than expected, and household spending fell 0.4% on the year before.

A pension fund got acquisitive. Canadian department store chain Hudson’s Bay agreed to acquire American luxury retailers Saks for $2.4 billion. Hudson’s bid was backed by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Canada’s largest public retirement fund, which happens to be a dealmaking powerhouse.

Air supremacy. Reports suggest American Airlines and US Airways will soon win EU approval to create the world’s largest carrier. The airlines had offered to surrender slots at Heathrow and Philadelphia airports to new entrants, after regulators made a stink about the deal stifling competition.

The Bank of Italy opened Pandora’s box. The central bank is inspecting the books of some of the country’s top lenders amid concerns over bad loans, which have increased for 27 consecutive months (paywall). Banks found to have insufficient capital buffers may be forced to sell assets.

A new FBI director. Former US attorney general James Comey, a Republican who has previously opposed government surveillance proposals, was confirmed in a 93-1 vote in the US Senate.

Gunmen assaulted a Pakistani prison. The attack began on Monday night as over 100 Taliban fighters and suicide bombers attacked a prison holding thousands of prisoners. A Taliban spokesperson claimed that 300 prisoners had been freed.

Sponsor content by World Business Forum

Don’t be a marshmallow-grabber. How do you make great people decisions? It’s not the How or the What but the Who. Learn why it’s important to save your marshmallows from global hiring expert, Claudio Fernández-Aráoz. Join him, Steve Levitt, Carlos Brito, and many more leaders at World Business Forum, October 1-2, 2013 at Radio City Music Hall®, NYC.

Quartz obsession interlude

Theo Francis on how people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates can make or lose billions when their companies report earnings. “Mark Zuckerberg made $5 billion last week, and Bill Gates lost $1.6 billion the week before. That’s all on paper, of course, and in percentage terms their gains and losses were the same as those of any other investor—it’s just that the two men hold big slugs of shares in the companies they founded.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

China’s skyscraper curse. Broad Group’s 90-day vanity project to build the world’s tallest building is synonymous with all that is wrong with China.

The UK should accept that it’s London-centric. Rebalancing Britain’s distorted economy is an idea that never goes out of fashion but never amounts to anything either.

Immigrants will account for almost all the growth in the US labor force through 2050. Cities that educate and integrate immigrants will set themselves up for success.

Middle class rage can only partially explain the global wave of protests. Protests have been erupting primarily against older regimes.

Surprising discoveries

Value menu. The McDonalds McDouble burger is one of the cheapest sources of calories in human history.

Money ain’t all it’s cracked up to be. Less than a third of millionaires with between $1 million and $5 million actually feel wealthy.

Spacing it. The US space agency admitted that its shift to the cloud left sensitive data at risk.

The Gangnam Style effect. Shares of a company founded by the father of South Korean rapper Psy surged 800% for no apparent reason.

Top US cities are drowning. Major parts of 1,700 cities and towns including Boston, New York and Miami will be below sea level by 2100.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, historic caloric bargains and one-hit-wonder share price fluctuations to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

You’re getting the Europe and Africa edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday 25/06/2013

Morning Markets Report
Prepared on Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Copyright 2013 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.

Summary
The Dow Future has climbed 68 points to 14656. The US Dollar Index moved down 0.181 points to 82.264. Gold is trending higher 0.15 dollars to 1283.78. Silver 0.0820 dollars to 19.7400. The Dow Industrials edged lower 139.84 points, at 14659.56, while the S&P 500 retreated 19.34 points, last seen at 1573.09. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 36.51 points to 3320.74. Streaming charts of these markets are available 24/7 at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
Today’s Video Update: Where Are The Buyers?
Monday Jun 24th

Gold Chart of The Week
Monday Jun 24th

Weekend Lesson: One -Time Framing
Sunday Jun 23rd

Key Events for Tuesday

7:45 AM ET. ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index

Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +0.3%)

Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +2.5%)

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods

Total Orders (expected +4.5%; previous +3.3%)

Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +2.1%)

Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +1.3%)

8:30 AM ET. Annual U.S. International Investment Position

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. International Investment Position

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

MoM % Change (previous -0.4%)

12MonChgPct (previous +2.9%)

52WkChgPct (previous +2.9%)

9:00 AM ET. April S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index

SP Composite-10 MoM (previous +1.4%)

SP Co mposite-10 YoY (previous +10.3%)

SP Composite-20 MoM (previous +1.4%)

SP Composite-20 (expected +10.6%; previous +10.9%)

National QoQ

National YoY

9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index

House Price Index (previous 199.1)

House Price Index (MoM) (expected +1.3%; previous +1.3%)

House Price Index (YoY) (previous +7.2%)

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

Overall Sales (expected 464K; previous 454K)

Percent Change (expected +2.2%; previous +2.3%)

Months’ Supply (previous 4.1)

10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index (expected 75; previous 76.2)

Expectation Index (previous 82.4)

Present Situation Index (pr evious 66.7)

10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

Manufacturing Index (previous –2)

Retail Revenues Index (previous –1)

Services Revenue Index (previous 11)

Shipments Index (previous 8)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -4.29M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.92M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -0.61M)

Refinery Runs (previous 88.9%)

 


 

Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
U.S $ INDEX 82.264 -0.181 -0.23%
POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX 22.365 +0.025 +0.11%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.04687 -0.00483 -0.46%
Euro/US Dollar 1.31250 +0.00100 +0.08%
JAPANESE YEN Sep 2013 0.010276 +0.000037 +0.36%
SWISS FRANC Sep 2013 1.0718 -0.0011 -0.10%

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 83.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.26. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.60. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May rally crossing at 80.81.

The September Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are be arish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 129.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.68. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 134.24. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 130.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 129.63.

The September British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1.5264 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5562 would confirm that the short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5562. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.5719. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1.5335. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5264.

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10705 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off May’s low, February’s high crossing at .11048 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at .10941. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at .11048. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10705. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10629.

The September Canadian Dol lar was higher due to short covering overnight as it the consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 93.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.90. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 98.46. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 94.53. Second support is monthly support crossing at 93.67.

The September Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10252 would confirm that a short-te rm top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May’s low, April’s high crossing at .10810 is the next upside target. First resistance is April’s high crossing at .10810. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2013-decline crossing at .10914. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10252. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10078.


 

Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Aug 2013 95.69 +0.51 +0.54%
NEW YORK HARBOR ULSD Aug 2013 2.8658 +0.0128 +0.45%
NATURAL GAS Sep 2013 3.762 +0.005 +0.13%
RBOB GASOLINE Aug 2013 2.7414 +0.0143 +0.53%
POWERSHARES DYNAMIC ENERGY 45.7001 -1.4198 -3.05%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 54.51 -0.41 -0.75%

ENERGIES

August Nymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends extended Monday’s short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month’s rally, June’s low crossing at 91.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.61. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 99.21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 92.77. Second support is June’s low crossing at 91.50.

August heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week’s decline, June’s low crossing at 277.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 291.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 291.33. Seconded resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 298.94. First support is June’s low crossing at 277.45. Second support is April’s low crossing at 273.76.

August unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, April’s low crossing at 265.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.33. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 290.27. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 270.25. Second support is April’s low crossing at 265.08.

August Henry natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May’s high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 3.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.897 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.897. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 3.656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at 3.510.


 

Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Sep 2013 2165 +16 +0.74%
COFFEE Sep 2013 121.30 +1.15 +0.96%
ORANGE JUICE-A Sep 2013 140.35 -1.45 -1.03%
IPATH DJ-UBS SUGAR TRUST 58.88 -1.34 -2.23%
IPATH DJ-UBS SOFTS TRUST 46.9401 -0.3099 -0.66%

FOOD & FIBER

September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 11.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

September cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this m onth’s decline, April’s low crossing at 21.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.60 would confirm that a low has been posted.

October sugar closed higher on Monday and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If October extends this year’s decline, the contract low crossing at 16.15 is the next downside target. If October renews this week’s rally, May’s high crossing at 18.21 is the next upside target.

July cotton closed sharply lower on Monday renewing the decline off June’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.02 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


 

Free Options Strategy Guide

Learn Common Strategies to Trading Futures Options. This must-have guide features explanations, examples, sample charts and more. You’ll learn:

– Basics of buying and selling options
– Commonly-used options strategies
– How to determine the break-even point

Click here for immediate access

 


Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Dec 2013 550.75 +4.25 +0.78%
OATS Dec 2013 376.25 -7.75 -2.06%
WHEAT Sep 2013 694.00 +6.25 +0.91%
TEUCRIUM CORN 41.050 -0.850 -2.07%
IPATH DJ-UBS GRAINS TRUST 50.7414 -0.7696 -1.52%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 6.7601 -0.1499 -2.21%
SOYBEANS Nov 2013 1282.50 +9.00 +0.71%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2013 1279.625 +6.125 +0.48%
SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2013 383.3 +3.5 +0.92%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 24.5325 +0.0026 +0.01%

GRAINS

July corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Wednesday’s high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last Wednesday’s high, the reaction low crossing at 6.40 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the August-April decline crossing at 6.91 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 6.83 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-April decline crossing at 6.91 1/2. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 6.50 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.40 1/2.

July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline of f last week’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June’s high, April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.94 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. July wheat needs to close above 7.40 1/2 or below 6.64 3/4 to confirm a breakout of this spring’s trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.14 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.27 3/4. First support is May’s low crossing at 6.74. Second support is April’s low crossing at 6.64 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 21 1/4-cents at 7.15 1/4.

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday on disappointing export inspection news. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week’s rally, June’s high crossing at 7.55 3/4 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April’s high, the May 2012-low crossing at 6.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 7.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.55 3/4. First support is June’s low crossing at 7.10 1/2. Second support is last May’s low crossing at 6.83.

July Minneapolis wheat was fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.00 1/4 would confirm a downside breakout of May’s trading range and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April’s high crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-April decline crossing at 8.53 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.00 1/4. Second support is April’s low crossing at 7.60.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

July soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 14.71 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.17. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 15.58 3/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 14.85 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 14.71 1/4.

July soybean meal was higher overnight and trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 451.80. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews last week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 438.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 451.80. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 469.90. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 443.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 438.40.

July soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.35 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 49.95. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 50.61. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 47.28. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 46.56.


 

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 14659.56 -139.84 -0.95%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 3320.74 -36.51 -1.10%
S&P 500 CASH 1573.09 -19.34 -1.23%
SPDR S&P 500 157.1401 -1.9299 -1.23%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 17.90 +0.51 +2.83%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 94.740 -1.235 -1.30%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 2774.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2943.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2916.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2943.62. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 2838.86. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 2774.87.

The S eptember S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideway to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 1545.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1616.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1616.94. Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at 1648.70. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1553.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-May rally crossing at 1545.59.


 

Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Sep 2013 135.25000 +0.43750 +0.32%
iShares FLOATING RATE NOTE 50.645 -0.005 -0.01%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Sep 2013 120.742188 +0.195313 +0.16%
ULTRA T-BONDS Sep 2013 146.06250 +0.37500 +0.26%
POWERSHARES SENIOR LOAN PORTF 24.650 +0.025 +0.10%

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off May’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 130-24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137-22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-29. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 133-04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 130-24.


 

Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Aug 2013 147.975 +0.300 +0.20%
LEAN HOGS Aug 2013 98.025 +0.225 +0.23%
LIVE CATTLE Aug 2013 121.450 +0.275 +0.23%
IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK TRUST SUB 27.0266 -0.0134 -0.05%

LIVESTOCK

July hogs closed up $1.20 at $100.95.

July hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off March’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 104.20 is the next upside target. Closes below gap support crossing at 99.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 101.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 104.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 97.30.

August cattle closed down $0.42 at 121.17.

August cattle po sted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday’s rally. A better than expected cattle on feed report was released last Friday afternoon. The biggest number remains with heavier cattle being placed in feedlots, a trend that has been with this market all spring. Heavier cattle need fewer days on feed and move to slaughter with lower corn inputs. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May’s low, May’s high crossing at 124.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.69 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 122.00. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 12410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.69. Second support is May’ s low crossing at 117.90.

August feeder cattle closed up $0.75 at $147.67.

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May’s low, the reaction high crossing at 149.80 is the next upside target. If August renews this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 132.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 149.80. First support is May’s low crossing at 142.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.45.


 

Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Aug 2013 1285.1 +8.0 +0.62%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 123.985 -1.065 -0.86%
SILVER Jul 2013 19.705 +0.212 +1.08%
PALLADIUM Sep 2013 675.85 +18.20 +2.75%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 139.821 +16.771 +12.04%
POWERSHARES DB PRECIOUS METALS 42.2205 +0.5305 +1.27%

PRECIOUS METALS

August gold was higher due to light short covering overnight consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June’s high, monthly support crossing at 1155.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1369.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1369.30. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1423.30. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1268.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1155.60.

July silver was higher due to short cov ering overnight but remains poised to test monthly support crossing at 19.350. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at 18.756 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.617 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.617. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 23.060. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 19.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 18.756.

July copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June’s high, monthly support crossing at 295.40 is the next downside ta rget. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 313.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.69. First support is the overnight low crossing at 298.35. Second support is monthly support crossing at 295.40.


 

Top Stocks
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. NOK NOKIA 3.81 -0.12 -3.16% 38,258,146 +100    Entry Signal
2. VHS VANGUARD HEALTH SYSTEMS 20.73 +8.36 +40.39% 24,921,421 +90    Entry Signal
3. STEC STEC 6.71 +3.12 +46.50% 20,635,799 +100    Entry Signal
4. CLWR CLEARWIRE 5.04 -0.04 -0.80% 15,262,442 +90    Entry Signal
5. WLP WELLPOINT 80.06 +0.66 +0.83% 4,974,582 +90    Entry Signal
6. FNSR FINISAR 16.22 0.00 0.00% 4,964,061 +90    Entry Signal
7. CI CIGNA 71.10 +0.06 +0.08% 4,152,420 +90    Entry Signal
8. CWH COMMONWEALTH REIT 21.7600 -1.1199 -5.15% 3,860,398 +90    Entry Signal
9. GME GAMESTOP 39.9316 -0.8484 -2.13% 3,803,523 +90    Entry Signal
10. KEYN KEYNOTE SYSTEMS 19.7975 +6.2875 +31.72% 3,629,566 +90    Entry Signal
Top Futures
# symbol name last net % volume score triangles
1. CL.Q13.E CRUDE OIL Aug 2013 95.69 +0.51 +0.54% 39,571 +100    Entry Signal
2. CLT.N13.E CRUDE OIL (TAS) Jul 2013 0.00 -0.01 -0.50% 27,489 +90    Entry Signal
3. CL.N13 CRUDE OIL Jul 2013 95.40 +0.15 +0.16% 26,731 +85    Entry Signal
4. CL.U13.E CRUDE OIL Sep 2013 95.52 +0.48 +0.51% 17,739 +100    Entry Signal
5. LH.V13 LEAN HOGS Oct 2013 85.85 +0.75 +0.87% 8,672 +100    Entry Signal
6. LH.Z13 LEAN HOGS Dec 2013 82.875 +0.575 +0.69% 8,091 +100    Entry Signal
7. LH.N13 LEAN HOGS Jul 2013 100.95 +1.20 +1.19% 7,499 +100    Entry Signal
8. HE.N13.E LEAN HOGS Jul 2013 100.95 +1.20 +1.19% 6,387 +100    Entry Signal
9. LH.G14 LEAN HOGS Feb 2014 84.225 +0.175 +0.21% 3,873 +90    Entry Signal
10. HE.G14.E LEAN HOGS Feb 2014 84.225 +0.175 +0.21% 3,439 +100    Entry Signal

Quartz Daily Brief—Afghan presidential palace attacked, Obama’s climate plan, Snowden hunting

Quartz - qz.com

Good Morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

Afghanistan’s presidential palace is under attack. Gunmen began an attack in the early hours of Tuesday as reporters gathered for a press conference with President Hamid Karzai. Details are still emerging.

Bankers convene. Over 1,000 of the world’s top bankers and policymakers will meet in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday at a conference of the Institute of International Finance. Top of the agenda: Fixing Europe and adapting to new regulation.

Will Sprint close the deal? Sprint shareholders will vote on SoftBank’s sweetened offer, worth $21.6 billion. Sprint’s other suitor, Dish Network, abandoned its bid last week after a long bidding war.

Obama’s climate vision. President Barack Obama is expected to announce a slew of measures including limits on carbon emissions from existing power plants, which account for 40% of the annual emissions in the US.

Digital drag for Barnes and Noble. The retailer is expected to report a loss for the fourth straight quarter, while revenues may see a 4% drop. The drag is coming from the Nook division, which includes e-readers, tablets and e-books.

Homebuyers are back. Economists expect new US home sales to increase 2.2% in May. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for April and durable goods orders for May are also due.

While you were sleeping

Where in the world is Edward Snowden? US intelligence agencies and a lot of frustrated journalists continued their hunt for the NSA whistleblower after he didn’t board a flight from Moscow to Havana. The US criticized China for letting Snowden leave Hong Kong for Moscow—if in fact he ever went there.

Indonesia apologized for wayward pollution. Taking full responsibility for illegal fires on the island of Sumatra, President Yudhoyono called for an end to the bickering that has soured the relationship between Indonesia and its smoke-choked neighbors, Malaysia and Singapore.

Berlusconi’s Bunga-bunga boo-boo. Italy’s former prime minister was sentenced to seven years in jail and banned from public office for having sex with an underage prostitute. The ruling threatens to destabilize Italy’s ruling coalition, although he is unlikely to ever see the inside of a prison cell.

Dilma Rousseff goes to the people. Brazil’s president responded to days of nationwide protest by offering to hold a referendum on political reform and invest 50 billion reais ($25 billion) in public transport.

Affirmative action goes back to the drawing board. The US Supreme Court sidestepped a sweeping decision on race-conscious admission policies by asking lower courts to take fresh look under more demanding standards. But make no mistake, affirmative action is already dead.

Rivals Microsoft and Oracle team up. Both companies are struggling to preserve their market share in cloud computing in the face of stiff competition from cheaper alternatives. Oracle has been under fire from its shareholders for missing software sales targets for a second quarter running.

Quartz obsession interlude

Matt Phillips on what the US and Chinese central banks have learned about bubbles. “Before the global financial crisis hit, central bankers didn’t try to deflate asset bubbles. Instead, they just waited until they popped and tried to contain the damage and pick up the pieces. But that hand-off approach appears to be no longer in vogue. The evidence? Look no further than the most recent market upheaval, which was sparked by central banks in the world’s two largest economies doing their best to deflate bubblicious conditions in key financial markets.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

China’s opacity makes it a dangerous investment. Beijing has lost control of its Frankenstein economy.

Global warming is making the world un-insurable. Governments are the only ones who can do something about it.

The next merger boom is already here. M&A volumes will rise even though most mergers continue to disappoint.

The coffee critics are wrong. The science shows that caffeine can drive creativity.

Surprising discoveries

Get important people to answer your emails. Six secrets on how to get responses.

Avoiding US extradition treaties is a toughie. This map will help.

Influential statistics. The most persuasive word you can use in a meeting is “yeah.” 

Wine connoisseurs can’t tell the difference. Only 10% knew they were being given the same wine over and over.

Visit the Burj Khalifa for free. Google Street View now takes you into the world’s tallest building.

The 1% of the 1%. 0.01% of the US population contributed 28% of campaign donations in the 2012 elections.

America’s best-loved pets. Dogs are an overwhelming favorite. But tigers are the top exotic pet.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, tips for escaping world powers and unidentifiable vintages to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

You’re getting the Europe edition of the Quartz Daily Brief. To change your region, click here. We’d also love it if you shared this email with your friends. They can sign up for free here.