Stocks have crossed 2100 a full fourteen times since mid-February. That is an easy border crossing like going from Illinois into Indiana for cheap gas.
The support level that does seem to matter these days is the 100 day moving average. That has only been breached twice in the past two years. (Last time in October 2014.)
Right now that stands at 2074. The next important support level is the 200 day moving average at 2031. My sense is that these areas need to be tested before the market can continue its advance. Just too much complacency in not going down further in the face of a stronger dollar, weaker manufacturing data, lower GDP and rising bond rates.
So I took another defensive step Monday and am now down to just 36% long the stock market. To be clear, I am not saying the bull market is over. Just that is not warranted to advance further until these negatives are cleared up. Once accomplished, then you will see me leading the parade at 100% long once again.
aka Steve Reitmeister
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research