F R I D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 22, 2013
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn, In Metric Tons (previous 284.7K)
Soybeans, In Metric Tons (previous 454.2K)
Wheat, In Metric Tons (previous 706.3K)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this week’s decline, the January 2nd gap crossing at 2665.00 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
2755.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2755.90. Second resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at crossing at 2786.50. First support is Thursday’s
low crossing at 2699.50. Second support is the January 2nd gap crossing at
2665.00.
The March S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this week’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the November-February
rally crossing at 1482.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1513.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1513.87.
Second resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1530.00. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 1490.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level
of the November-February rally crossing at 1482.65.
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March T-bonds was lower due to the overnight rebound in the equity markets
overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-13 are needed to
confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March renews
this winter’s decline, weekly support crossing at 139-14 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 143-30. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 144-13. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 142-05. Second support is weekly support crossing at
139-14.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energy
April crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April
extends this week’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February
rally crossing at 92.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 96.75 would confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.75. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 98.65. First support is the 50%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 92.56. Second
support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at
91.11.
March heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the
December-February rally crossing at 307.96 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.96 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 316.08. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
318.96. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-February
rally crossing at 307.96. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the
December-February rally crossing at 303.75.
March unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it rebounds
off the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.56. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.56 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter’s rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 334.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 316.91. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 334.71. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
303.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the June-February rally
crossing at 293.53.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of
Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that
a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 3.293 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
renews the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 3.100 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
3.293. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.459. First support
is last Friday’s low crossing at 3.125. Second support is January’s low
crossing at 3.100.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies
The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If March extends this
month’s rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-February decline crossing
at 81.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 80.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.62. Second resistance is
the 50% retracement level of the July-February decline crossing at 81.91. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.71. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 80.19.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 130.77 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.33 would confirm that a low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.38.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.33. First
support is the overnight low crossing at 131.59. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 130.77.
The March British Pound was slightly higher due to short covering in
overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March
extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 1.4857 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5609 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5480. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5609. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at
1.5124. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.4857.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this month’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s
decline, January’s low crossing at .10657 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10887 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10887. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at .11080.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at .10716. Second support is January’s
low crossing at .10657.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher due to light short covering
overnight as it consolidates some of this year’s decline. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s
high, the 75% retracement level of 2012′s rally crossing at 97.31 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.46 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.06. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 99.46. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at
97.91. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2012′s rally crossing at
97.31.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the trading range
of the past three weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that the
March Yen might be correcting more in time than price. Closes above the
reaction high crossing at .10854 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March renews the decline off September’s high, monthly
support crossing at .10532 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at .10792. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at .10854. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at .10588.
Second support is monthly support crossing at .10532.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold was slightly lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1644.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends
the decline off January’s high, last May’s low crossing at 1538.70 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1619.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1644.20.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 1554.30. Second support is last
May’s low crossing at 1538.70.
May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If May extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the June-October rally crossing at 27.529 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.834 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 30.056. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
30.834. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 28.255. Second support is
the 87% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at 27.529.
May copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of this month’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May
extends this month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 352.90 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 371.97 are needed to temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 371.97. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 379.25.
First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 355.35. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 352.90.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the
decline off January’s high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If March extends the decline off January’s high, weekly support
crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.80 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off September’s
high, last June’s low crossing at 20.65 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for
a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.37 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March extends this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March renews this winter’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-decline
crossing at 86.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low
crossing at 80.05 would confirm that a top has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains
March corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of Thursday’s decline. This morning’s export sales report will set the
tone for today’s trading ahead of the weekend. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.13 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If March renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at
6.86 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 6.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.13 1/2. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.87
1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.86 1/4.
March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates
some of Thursday’s decline, which led to a close below the 75% retracement
level of 2012′s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, the 87%
retracement level of 2012′s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.52 3/4 are needed
to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 7.35 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.52 3/4. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 7.19 1/4.
Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2012′s rally crossing at 6.88
3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 20-cents at 7.57 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday extending the decline off
November’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the decline off January’s high, the 75% retracement level of
2012′s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 8.02 1/2 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 8.02 1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 7.57 1/4. Second support
is the 75% retracement level of 2012′s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of Thursday’s decline but remains below the 75% retracement
level of the 2012-rally crossing at 8.15 1/2. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.37 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March extends this winter’s decline, the 87% retracement
level of the 2012-rally crossing at 7.79 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.19 3/4. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.37 1/4. First support is Thursday’s
low crossing at 8.05 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
2012-rally crossing at 7.79.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans higher overnight and has broken out above December’s high of
15.01 1/4 thereby renewing this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the
stage for steady to firmer opening when the day session begins trading later
this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally,
November’s high crossing at 15.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 14.51 3/4 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing
at 15.16 1/2. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 15.45. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1451 3/4. Second support is
last Wednesday’s low crossing at 14.04 1/2.
March soybean meal higher overnight and has renewed this year’s rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s
rally, December’s high crossing at 457.90 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 421.00 would confirm a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 445.00.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 457.90. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 421.00. Second support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 402.70.
March soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday’s
low crossing at 50.56 would confirm a trend change while opening the door for a
possible test of the reaction low crossing at 49.12 later this winter. If March
renews the rally off last Wednesday’s low, February’s high crossing at 53.57 is
the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 52.79.
Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 53.57. First support is last
Wednesday’s low crossing at 50.56. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 49.12.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.57 at $82.37.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday extending the decline off November’s
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If April extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
the May-November rally crossing at 81.14 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.73 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 84.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
86.73. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 82.12. Second resistance is
the 87% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at 81.14.
April cattle closed down $0.40 at 127.82.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s decline, last
April’s low crossing at 125.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 130.92 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 130.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 133.65.
First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 127.50. Second support is last
April’s low crossing at 125.90.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.02 at $140.70.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 145.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If March renews this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 138.48 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
143.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.98.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 139.50. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 138.48.
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T H A N K Y O U
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