Markets See Global Risk Rally on Negative ECB Rates

The event the market had been waiting for finally arrived: the ECB’s rate decision, and it was one for the history books. The central bank lowered its deposit rate by 10bps to -0.1%, main refinancing rate to 0.15%, and marginal lending rate by 30bps to 0.4%. In addition, the ECB announced that it would cease sterilizing its existing Securities Market Programme (SMP) bond holdings, make targeted very long-term loans to banks, and lay the groundwork for future purchases of asset-backed securities. The last point was viewed by market participants as the preliminary step before the central bank would begin broader asset purchases. The move by the ECB to negative deposit rates is unprecedented for a developed market central bank.

Effectively, Mario Draghi pushed a big portion of his chips into the middle of the table to combat deflationary forces in the eurozone by increasing the supply of available credit.

Risk assets responded accordingly, although the euro / US dollar cross recovered all of its losses and finished positive by the time US equity markets closed. Italian equities, as represented by the FTSEMIB, was the best performing group in Europe today, followed by France and Spain. European sovereign bonds also performed very strongly. The Italian 5-year bond yield fell by 12.4 basis points to 1.59%, below similar maturity US Treasuries.

US equities weren’t left out from the global risk rally. The S&P 500 (SPX) got off to a slow start, but ended up higher by 0.65%.  All 10 basic sectors of the S&P 500 gained on the day, led by industrials and financials. In the KBW Bank Index (BKX), all 24 of its components increased. On a beta-adjusted basis, the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed by 0.8%, and tech stocks saw similar gains.

There is another significant event for global markets this week: the US May nonfarm payrolls, which will be reported tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists expect a net increase of 215,000 payrolls after an increase of 288,000 last month. Due to the severe drop in the participation rate, they expect unemployment to increase to 6.4% from 6.3% in April. Although this past Wednesday’s private payrolls report showed disappointing labor activity in May, market participants expect the government figure tomorrow to exceed expectations.

Outside of the US, Germany will report its April trade balance and industrial production. Also, Canada will report its May employment report at the same time as the US.

There are no major earnings reports scheduled.

 

Minyanville Daily Recap 14/05/2014

One of the morning’s big stories focused on comments from ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet, considered the de facto spokesman for President Mario Draghi. Praet stated that the central bank was prepared to lower its main lending rate, offer funding loans to banks, or set a negative deposit rate. Large-scale asset purchases would only be utilized if growth and inflation did not live up to the ECB’s projections. In addition, an unnamed source told Reuters that a rate cut was a near certainty for the June 5 meeting.

US Treasuries rallied strongly today after comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that the central bank would likely hold rates low until mid-2015, about a quarter longer than had been expected. This caused the gilt market to reprice toward that later date, and the 5-year gilt yield fell 11.1 basis points. Treasuries were dragged along on this rally, pushing the 10-year yield down as much as eight basis points and out of a trading range it has been stuck in all year. The yield of 2.53% was its lowest level this year.

The major US stock indices opened the day marginally lower and trended down for the remainder of the session. Selling intensified during the last hour, and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed down 0.47%, which left it back near the level it opened on Monday. Small-cap stocks noticeably underperformed while most emerging market equities gained. Consumer discretionary, industrials, financials, and consumer staples were all notable laggards in today’s session.

The producer price index of final demand for April rose 2.1% from a year ago, well above the 1.7% expected by economists and faster than the 1.4% rate last month. The increase was linked to a sizable jump in food prices and trade services. However, the market’s takeaway was that companies wouldn’t be able to pass on these recent input price increases and it was actually a negative. Tomorrow’s consumer price index will decide whether or not that concern is correct.

Tomorrow morning, the April consumer price index will be released, which will complete the other half of the inflation picture. Prices are expected to rise 2.0% from a year ago after increasing 1.5% in March. Because the producer price index showed such a dramatic increase in April, market participants will be watching closely to see if companies were able to pass along those price increases to consumers. Also scheduled to be released is the May New York regional manufacturing survey, the first of its kind for the month of May. The last two reports scheduled for tomorrow are March long-term capital (TIC) flows and weekly jobless claims.

The main catalyst for risk assets overnight is the preliminary release of Japan’s first-quarter GDP. Its result should have a significant effect on the USDJPY currency pair and, by extension, US equities. Also scheduled to be released are preliminary first-quarter GDPs from the eurozone, France, and Germany. The last piece of data is the final April eurozone consumer price index.

Tomorrow is the busiest day of the week for earnings, with 12 companies reporting. Notable reports include Wal-Mart (WMT), Kohl’s (KSS), J.C. Penney (JCP), Autodesk (ADSK), Nordstrom (JWN), and Applied Materials (AMAT).

Minyanville Daily Recap 08/05/2014

The main event early today was the ECB rate decision. The central bank left its benchmark interest rates unchanged, as was expected by the majority of economists. In his usual press conference, President Mario Draghi made the same comments as he did last month about the ECB’s monetary policy stance. However, in response to a question about when he might act, Draghi stated that the ECB was prepared to begin an asset purchase program as early as next month, when its staff would update its economic projections. (See: “Todd Harrison: The ECB Loads the Bazooka.”)

Energy was a very notable underperformer today. The EIA released its weekly natural gas inventories, which recorded a 74-billion-cubic-feet build versus expectations of 70 bcf. Natural gas was lower, which dragged down the stocks of a number of exploration and production companies. Gulfport Energy (GPOR) was also a major culprit for the sell-off today after reporting earnings in the pre-market and missing by a wide margin. The stock fell 19% amid a number of analyst downgrades.

The broader indices experienced another roller-coaster day. The S&P 500 opened up 0.55%, only to fall a full percent intraday, only to recover some of those losses by the close of the session. Small caps notably underperformed again after yesterday’s strong intraday turnaround.

High-beta tech stocks were generally weak today, with Tesla Motors (TSLA) leading the charge lower. Tesla fell 11.3% after reporting first-quarter earnings that were roughly in line with expectations, and thus not strong enough to satisfy bulls in the shaky market environment.

Internet security play FireEye (FEYE) traded higher in the early going, but it couldn’t hold its gains and finished down 4.19%. At $27.45, it’s now more than 70% off its $97.35 March high.

One tech name that bucked the larger trend was Twitter (TWTR), which rose 4.17% to $31.94 after Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded the stock to equal-weight.

Two economic reports are scheduled for tomorrow, the March JOLTS Job Openings and Wholesale Inventories. The March report of inventories will be the last officially reported figure for the next round of first-quarter GDP revisions. Inventories are expected to grow 0.5% month-on-month after rising a similar amount in the month prior. The Job Openings report is judged by economists to be the “truest” gauge of labor market activity because it measures job leavers in addition to new hires.

Another set of important Chinese data is due out overnight: April consumer and producer price indexes. Consumer prices are expected to rise 2.1% year-on-year after rising 2.4% in the month prior. Also scheduled to be reported is Canada’s employment change, Germany and UK’s trade balances, UK manufacturing and industrial production, and the April GDP estimate for the UK.

Being Friday, it will be a light day for earnings. The only notable reports scheduled are Ralph Lauren (RL) and Hilton Worldwide (HLT).

Minyanville Daily Recap 14/04/2014

 

US markets attempted to bounce back today following stronger earnings from Citigroup (C) and a pickup in retail sales growth in March. Citigroup’s EPS of $1.30 beat the highest estimate of $1.20, which pushed the stock up 4.62% in today’s session. Retail sales in March rose 1.1% from the prior month, and February’s monthly growth was revised up to 0.7% from the earlier estimate of 0.3%. Although the strong auto sales in the month were a significant driver in the monthly gains, the “core” groups of food and beverage, merchandise, and building materials all showed solid growth.

The S&P 500 rose as much as 18.50 points by noon today, which was a gain of 24.75 points from the overnight futures low. However, all of the rally was erased late in the afternoon as selling intensified in small-cap stocks, only to see a sharp bounce in the last 30 minutes of the session erase the earlier selling. The S&P 500 finished the day up 0.82%, led by energy and materials stocks. Biotech, which has been under particular pressure recently, failed to close the session in the green, though it did hold important technical support near 213.

European indices started the day lower as investors remained cautious over new developments between Russia and the West over Ukraine. The Italian FTSEMIB was the strongest performer, which has typically been the most closely correlated to investors’ thoughts on potential easing from the ECB. Over the weekend, ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press conference in Washington that the increase in the EURUSD exchange rate posed a risk to price stability in the eurozone, which may require unconventional measures in response.

Earnings should be the dominant force in tomorrow’s trading as household names such as Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and the first large-cap tech companies such as Intel (INTC) and Yahoo (YHOO) report. There are two reports due out tomorrow that will be the first preliminary pieces of economic data for the month of April: New York’s regional manufacturing index and the NAHB survey of real-estate brokers and builders. Investors will be looking for more signs that the pent-up demand from the winter months continues in April.

The other economic report of significance is March’s consumer price index.

The Atlanta Fed will be holding a conference tomorrow in Stone Mountain, Georgia. Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to give the opening remarks via video at 8:45 a.m. EDT.

The UK will release its consumer and producer price index early tomorrow morning. Also, the German ZEW survey of market professionals’ thoughts on the current economic situation and expectations will be reported.

Minyanville Daily Recap 03/04/2014

The S&P 500 touched a new all-time high of 1893.8 this morning before profit-taking set in ahead of Friday’s big NFP report.

We saw very bearish action in high-beta stocks, with weakness in key leadership sectors like biotech, and by day’s end, the S&P was down 0.1%.

Biotech, which is largely viewed as a key indicator of investors’ willingness to embrace risk, sell 2.7%, as measured by the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index. With this decline, the group is now down 14.5% from the February 25 high.

Small caps also took it on the chin, with the Russell 2000 trading down 1.0%, and there was a nasty pullback in emerging markets. The stock markets of countries like Russia, Brazil, and China have been very hot as of late despite mixed global economic data trends, but all three sold off today.

Nonetheless, the action wasn’t all bad. US housing and financial stocks did slightly better than the major averages, and energy stocks finished nicely in the green as crude oil crossed the $100 mark.

On the economics front, as expected, the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. However, ECB President Mario Draghi emphasized that the Bank will maintain an accommodative monetary policy to battle the prospect of inflation.

Here in the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1, which was slightly below the consensus reading of 53.5. obless claims were also a modest disappointment at 326,000, which was above expectations of 319,000.

US markets still feel like they’re working off some excess following 2013’s 30% pop, though that hasn’t yet translated to the major averages as the selling is happening in riskier stocks. One good illustration of the action is the big move up in utility stocks.

That group is up 8.6% year-to-date, and has continued going higher just as the aforementioned biotech and social media names have cratered. We’ve also seen nice, slow and steady upward moves in Big Pharma names like Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK).

All eyes are on tomorrow’s March nonfarm payrolls report.

Current expectations call for a headline number of 200,000 with an unemployment rate of 6.6%.

Investors are looking for a rebound following the extended spell of bad weather that contributed to three straight weak reports. And given that the S&P is sitting near an all-time high, it’s fair to say expectations are a bit elevated.

Quartz weekend brief—Central bankers, beeronomics, plutonium shortages, gangs on Facebook

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

This week reminded us that central banks can still surprise. Markets soared when the Federal Reserve decided not to slow its stimulus to the US economy, and the Reserve Bank of India’s new head, Raghuram Rajan, took the limelight after raising rates sooner than expected to fight inflation.

To understand the power of central bankers, read Neil Irwin’s excellent The Alchemists. Remarkably gripping for a book about monetary policy, it relates how Fed chair Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank (ECB) head Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of England (BoE) governor Mervyn King joined battle against the global financial crisis.

But Trichet and King are now gone, Bernanke has one foot out the door, and their successors face more diverse challenges. Rajan must stem the fall of the rupee. Haruhiko Kuroda in Japan is fighting entrenched deflation with a flood of cash. The BoE’s Mark Carney and the ECB’s Mario Draghi are looking for growth amidst rising debt. And Bernanke’s successor, probably Janet Yellen, will have to make the decision he postponed this week: When to let the US economy stand on its own two feet.

While no one would call saving the global financial system easy, it at least comes with a clear playbook, written by Walter Bagehot and Milton Friedman: Emergency loans to AIG and faltering European countries alike; low, if not zero, interest rates for years to come.

But sustainable growth is a more slippery problem. Should central bankers target nominal GDP, or issue specific guidance about unemployment and prices? How should they balance the conflicts between inflation and growth? How much should they track financial instability or seek to pop bubbles? How can they balance domestic needs with the impact of their choices on other countries? And can anything a central bank does succeed without complementary fiscal policy?

Bernanke, King and Trichet found a way to put out a fire. The new generation may find it harder to rebuild amidst the ashes.—Tim Fernholz     Share this

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Five things on Quartz we especially liked

Fifteen decisions that can’t be made until Angela Merkel is re-elected. From another Greek bailout to EU tobacco restrictions, here’s a list of things in limbo until after Germany’s election on Sunday.

The ever-increasing reach of Google. While the company made a splash by announcing Calico, a new business tasked with finding out the most effective ways to extend people’s lives, it also reached the latest in a series of wind-farm deals that are quietly turning the electricity market on its head.

The paradoxical economics of Oktoberfest beer. It seems to be subject to a “Giffen paradox”—the more expensive it gets, the more people buy it.

The secret financial market only robots can see. Researchers have discovered thousands of micro-spikes and micro-crashes that have hit financial markets in the past few years, invisible to humans and regulators, and whose impacts on the markets are still poorly understood.

The latest fish we’re losing, thanks to trendy chefs. European seabass (a.k.a. branzino or loup de mer) took the place of cod and haddock on fancy restaurant menus as those species were overfished. Now it’s the seabass’s turn.

Five things elsewhere that made us smarter

NASA’s plutonium emergency. Deep space probes and robots like the Mars rovers need incredibly long-lived batteries. The only fuel that fits the bill is plutonium-238. It’s a product of the nuclear arms race, and the world’s supply is about to run out. Dave Mosher in Wired looks at the efforts to rekindle the production process.

Your iPhone pays for child soldiers. Like “conflict diamonds”, many of the rare metals in electronic devices come from mines in Congo that bankroll brutal civil war. Jeffrey Gettleman visited Congo for National Geographic and found that attempts to clean up the industry have had only limited success.

How power really works in Russia. Vladimir Putin may seem like an all-powerful tsar, but as political scientist Alena Ledeneva explains, he is merely a key player in what Russians call sistema, the system—an informal network of alliances and factions which both limits the president’s power and stymies any attempt at reform.

How Facebook fuels gang wars. You’ll learn more than you ever expected to know about both gang warfare and social media from Ben Austen’s long report in Wired on the lethal interaction between the online world and the mean streets of Chicago.

How Apple thinks about innovation. Sam Grobart in BusinessWeek puts the claim that Apple’s lost its innovative edge to the company’s top minds. Apple’s response is probably best summed up in one exec’s quote: “New? New is easy. Right is hard.”

Our best wishes for a relaxing and thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, seabass recipes, and spare plutonium to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

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Quartz Daily Brief—Bo Xilai in the dock, Jackson Hole summit, UN on Syria, Google’s Easter Eggs

Quartz - qz.com

Good morning, Quartz readers!

What to watch for today

The central bankers’ powwow starts, without its stars. The central bank heads of the US (Ben Bernanke), the UK (Mark Carney), and the EU (Mario Draghi) will all skip the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. But Bernanke will still be the center of attention, as everyone ponders who will replace him.

Gauging global business activity. The euro-zone purchasing managers’ index is expected to show a recovery picking up steam, with Germany leading the way, and weekly US jobless claims will also be closely watched.

Bo Xilai’s trial begins; China’s leaders take the credit. The former regional party boss was accused of accepting 21.8 million yuan ($3.6 million) in bribes, with the help of his wife and son. Chinese media are depicting it as a triumph for the new leadership’s anti-corruption campaign, though that started after Bo’s downfall.

The “Pharaoh” walks free. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak could leave prison, where he was serving life for complicity in the killing of demonstrators during the 2011 revolution. In an attempt not to look too lenient, the military will then put him under house arrest.

Robert Mugabe kicks off his fifth term. The 89-year-old leader, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 33 years, will be sworn in after a constitutional court dismissed opposition claims that the elections had been rigged.

While you were sleeping

The UN Security Council worked overtime on Syria. Diplomats went into emergency session after rebels accused president Bashar al-Assad’s forces of killing hundreds of people with chemical weapons early Wednesday, and ended with calls for more information. It appears Russia and China blocked orders for a direct investigation.

The Fed gave a weak signal on “tapering,” scaring markets. Minutes of the US central bank’s July 30-31 meeting showed officials still divided on when exactly to start paring back the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, although most supported it some time this year. US and Canadian stocks fell in response and stocks in the Philippines plummeted.

China’s manufacturing sector grew. Preliminary data show China’s companies hanging on as a recovery in Europe and the US improves outlook. HSBC/Markit’s flash index came in at 50.1, just above the 50-point line separating expansion and contraction, and up from 47.7 in July.

Hewlett-Packard sounded the warning bell. CEO Meg Whitman said she no longer expects HP to grow its revenues in the next fiscal year, due to weakness in several divisions. The tech giant also reported weak earnings and shuffled its top management.

A damning report for Tepco. The operator of Japan’s leaking Fukushima nuclear power plant was urged at a “less than friendly” meeting with an advisory panel to tighten water management procedures weeks before new reports of another massive leak.

Wells Fargo is slashing jobs. The biggest US mortgage lender may be cutting as many as 2,300 jobs, about 20% of its mortgage loan officers, as demand for refinancing falls due to higher interest rates.

Yahoo! overtook Google. A management and operations overhaul by CEO Marissa Mayer seems to be working at Yahoo!, which attracted more US visitors during July than rival Google, according to Comscore. Excluding mobile visitors, Yahoo! reached over 196 million viewers, 4.3 million more than Google and up 21% from a year earlier.

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Quartz obsession interlude

Nandagopal J. Nair on why Malaysia could be the next country after India and Indonesia to fall prey to investor panic. “What’s behind Malaysia’s woes? Falling commodity prices and weakening demand from China. But what makes the country particularly vulnerable to international investor sentiment is the fact that investors hold nearly 50% of its bonds (paywall), much higher than 30% on average for emerging markets.” Read more here.

Matters of debate

Assad knows he can get away with using chemical weapons. The evidence is pretty strong already and, despite the ultimatums, little is being done to stop him.

“Work hard, retire early” is no longer an option for bankers.  A long, exhausting life of toil is the only option, and it takes a permanent physical toll.

China’s crackdown on Big Pharma is necessary. It will mean a fairer market and improve the investment climate for foreign businesses.

India is flexing its muscles in East Asia. To counter China’s growing influence, India is boosting its military ties in the region.

All the oil we need, but what about the planet? New drilling technologies could increase the world’s petroleum supplies six-fold in the coming years.

Surprising discoveries

Google hides “Easter Eggs” everywhere. Examples include a hidden space invader game in YouTube and an angry cartoon mob in Hangouts.

The lowest temperature in which life can survive is -20 degrees Celsius. Below that, cells become like glass.

Detroit is going to the dogs—literally. As many as 50,000 abandoned dogs are roaming the streets, including swarms of tiny, ferocious dogs that earned one neighborhood the nickname “Chihuahuaville.”

The backbone of BlackBerry World. A single firm in Hong Kong develops a third of BlackBerry’s 120,000 apps.

Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, Google Easter Egg discoveries and Detroit dog photos to hi@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter here for updates during the day.

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ADVFN – Report dei mercati 05/07/2013


MERCATO USA
Wall Street chiusa ieri per festività

MERCATI ASIATICI

Denaro sul Nikkei in chiusura di ottava

Nikkei tonico in chiusura di ottava dopo la pausa di riflessione delle ultime due sedute, in scia all’indebolimento dello yen nei confronti delle altre principali valute ed alle notizie provenienti dal Vecchio Continente, in particolare alle parole di Mario Draghi, presidente BCE, che ha reso noto che la politica europea di tassi bassi potrebbe proseguire a lungo e che la stessa BCE dispone ancora dei mezzi necessari per fronteggiare l’eventuale deterioramento della crisi finanziaria.

L’indice ha chiuso le contrattazioni odierne sui massimi di giornata a quota 14309,97, in crescita di 2 punti percentuali, compiendo un passo avanti importante verso le resistenze strategiche di area 14500/14600. Il superamento di tali livelli permetterebbe di ipotizzare l’avvio di una nuova fase rialzista duratura in direzione dei record di quest’anno a 16000 punti. Flessioni nel breve fino a 13600/13700 resterebbero compatibili con l’ipotesi rialzista. Sotto 13600 invece primi segnali in favore del ritorno in area 12400 dove sono posizionati i minimi di giugno, il cui cedimento spalancherebbe le porte verso i bottom di aprile a 11800 circa e poi al test a 11400, pari al 61,8% di ritracciamento della salita da novembre e livello coincidente con i massimi del 2010.

Sul fronte macro da segnalare che l”Ufficio di Gabinetto nipponico ha reso noto questa mattina il dato relativo all’Indice Anticipatore di maggio. Tale rilevazione e’ apparsa in crescita a 110,5 punti dai 107,7 di aprile e dai 106,2 di marzo. Il dato e’ superiore rispetto alle stime degli analisti (96,3). In rialzo anche il “Coincident Index” che si e’ attestato a 105,9 punti dai 105,1 di aprile. Contrastate le altre principali piazze azionarie asiatiche con Hong Kong che guadagna l’1,7%, Shanghai lo 0,1% e Seul che invece ha chiuso in calo dello 0,32%.


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MERCATI EUROPEI
Borse europee positive

Le principali Borse europee hanno aperto l’ultima seduta della settimana in rialzo. Il Dax30 di Francoforte guadagna lo 0,4%, il Cac40 di Parigi lo 0,1%, il Ftse100 di Londra lo 0,2% e l’Ibex35 di Madrid lo 0,23%.

Casino +0,5%. Il gruppo retail ha annunciato di aver ottenuto una linea di credito da 1 miliardo di dollari da 10 banche per rifinanziare un prestito triennale da 900 milioni di dollari.

Saft -9%. Il produttore di batterie ha anticipato che il primo semestre sarà peggiore del previsto ed ha avvertito di attendersi per l’intero esercizio un fatturato nella parte bassa della guidance diffusa lo scorso febbraio.

Alstom -0,9%. Deutsche Bank ha tagliato il rating sul titolo del gruppo industriale francese a hold da buy.
Air France-Klm +0,2%. La compagnia aerea ha annunciato che nel mese di giugno il traffico è aumentato del 2,5%.

Royal Imtech +10%. Il gruppo dei servizi ha lanciato un aumento di capitale fino a 500 milioni di euro. Il prezzo delle nuove azioni è stato fissato a 1,4 euro, con uno sconto del 37,2% rispetto al prezzo teorico ex diritto.

APERTURA MERCATO ITALIANO

Piazza Affari in lieve progresso. Gtech e Cementir protagoniste, in rosso Telecom

Il Ftse Mib segna +0,1%, il Ftse Italia All-Share +0,1%, il Ftse Italia Mid Cap +0,5%, il Ftse Italia Star +0,2%.

Borse europee in leggero rialzo. Ieri i mercati americani sono rimasti chiusi per festività (Independence Day). Attualmente i future sui principali indici USA sono in rialzo di oltre un punto percentuale. A Tokyo il Nikkei 225 ha terminato a +2,08%, mentre a Hong Kong l’Hang Seng al momento segna +1,6% circa.

Denaro su Gtech (+2,1% a 20,16 euro) grazie agli analisti di Nomura i quali hanno alzato il target price del titolo da 22 a 28,8 euro mentre la raccomandazione resta “buy” (acquistare). Secondo Nomura il consensus degli analisti sembra non prendere in considerazione le prospettive di crescita negli States.

Forte rialzo per Cementir (+6,2% a 2,3250 euro) in scia alla decisione di Kepler Cheuvreux di migliorare la raccomandazione sul titolo da “hold” (mantenere) a “buy” (acquistare) e di alzare il target price da 1,7 a 2,6 euro.

Generali (+0,4%) poco mossa in avvio. Secondo il Sole 24 Ore siamo giunti alla stretta finale delle trattative per la vendita della Banca della Svizzera Italiana (Bsi). In lizza sarebbero rimaste la spagnola Bankinter e il portoghese Banco Espirito Santo, anche se non si escludono inserimenti da parte della cinese Icbc e della svizzera Banque Safra. Generali chiederebbe non meno di 1,8 miliardi di euro per la controllata.

Intanto l’altra controllata Banca Generali (+2,2%) ha archiviato il mese di giugno con raccolta netta totale pari a €305 milioni (miglior dato mensile della storia della società), che porta il dato semestrale a €1,412 miliardi, +35% a/a e pari al 90% della raccolta dell’intero 2012 (anno record).

Debole Telecom Italia (-1% a 0,5245 euro): a seguito dello stop sulle trattative con 3 Italia Equita Sim ha abbassato il giudizio su Telecom a “hold” (mantenere) con target price pari a 0,7 euro per azione. Gli esperti di Equita hanno anche azzerato il peso dell’azione Telecom nel portafoglio raccomandato. Preoccupante la discesa dell’Ebitda di gruppo, con un calo atteso per la fine del 2013 del 6,5% e contenuta velocita’ di deleverage.


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TITOLI DEL GIORNO
Diasorin staziona appena sotto le importanti resistenze di area 32 euro in attesa dello spunto capace di spingere i prezzi oltre il livello citato. Al di sopra dello stesso verrebbe riattivato il movimento ascendente di lungo periodo con primo obiettivo a 34 circa (massimo allineati di maggio e luglio 2011) e successivo sul record storico a 35,60 circa. Segnali di debolezza verrebbero invece inviati a seguito della violazione di 29,90, prologo a un test di 28,80, sostegno determinante per evitare l’ipotesi di ritorno sui minimi annuali in area 26.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 32 per 34, stop sotto 30,50.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 32 per 35,60, ridurre sotto 29,90 e uscire alla violazione di 28,80.

Prysmian grazie al forte rialzo di giovedi’ che lo ha visto portarsi fino a 14,98 riesce a risalire al di sopra della linea disegnata dai minimi di giugno 2012, violata il 21 giugno ed ora nuovamente supporto passante a 14,80. A seguito della rottura di quella soglia i recenti segnali negativi sono stati allontananti, possibile ora il test a 15,33 della media mobile a 200 giorni e di area 15,85. Il superamento anche di questa soglia metterebbe il titolo in condizione di recuperare i massimi di inizio giugno a 16,94. Solo in caso di ritorno sotto i 14 euro, introdotto dalla violazione di 14,43, atteso invece il test a 13,47 dei minimi di dicembre 2012.
Per chi volesse comprare il titolo attendere la rottura di 15,33 per intervenire con target a 15,85 e stop loss sotto 15,10.
Per chi gia’ detiene il titolo incrementare le posizioni oltre 15,33 per il test di 15,85, stop sotto 14,40.

STMicroelectronics recupera terreno dopo l’affondo subito nella seconda metà di giugno. Il superamento della linea tracciata per i massimi decrescenti di maggio/giugno, attualmente in transito per 7,50/7,55 euro, confermerebbe le intenzioni bellicose del titolo, anticipando un attacco alla importante resistenza a 7,69. Al di sopra di questo ultimo riferimento la tendenza rialzista in forza dalla primavera 2012 riceverebbe infatti nuova linfa in vista di estensioni verso 8,25 e quindi sul top di inizio 2011 a 9,73. Discese sotto 6,60 preluderebbero invece allo sviluppo di una nuova sezione di ribasso, ipotesi che verrebbe successivamente confermata dalla rottura di 6,30.
Per chi volesse acquistare il titolo: posizioni long oltre 7,69 per 8,25, stop sotto 7,50.
Per chi detiene attualmente il titolo: incrementare oltre 7,69 per 9,73, ridurre sotto 6,60 e uscire alla violazione di 6,30.

DATI MACRO ATTESI

Venerdì 5 luglio
07:00 GIA Indice anticipatore (prelim.) mag;
12:00 GER Ordini all’industria m/m mag;
14:30 USA Nuovi lavoratori dipendenti non agricoli giu;
14:30 USA Salari contrattuali m/m giu;
14:30 USA Tasso di disoccupazione giu.


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HEADLINES
Rcs, Della Valle pronto a rilevare tutto l’inoptato
Diego Della Valle, socio di riferimento del gruppo Tod’s e azionista di peso in Rcs, ha annunciato ieri in una conferenza stampa che domani sottoscriverà i diritti di opzione collegati alla sua quota dell’8,7% circa del capitale di Rcs (fuori dal patto) e si è detto pronto a rilevare anche tutto l’inoptato. Il manager dunque parteciperà all’aumento di capitale necessario al salvataggio dell’editore de Il Corriere della Sera e della Gazzetta dello Sport. Della Valle stima di poter salire oltre il 20% del capitale di Rcs con la sottoscrizione dell’inoptato.

Banca Generali: raccolta netta semestrale a € 1,412 miliardi
La raccolta netta totale di Banca Generali a giugno è stata pari a €305 milioni, di cui €179 milioni realizzati dalla rete Banca Generali (€843 milioni da inizio anno) e €126 milioni da Banca Generali Private Banking (€569 milioni da inizio anno). Giugno rappresenta il miglior dato di raccolta mensile nella storia della banca che in soli sei mesi ha già raggiunto circa il 90% di quanto realizzato nello corso dell’intero 2012, che a sua volta era stato un anno record. I 1.412 milioni di euro raccolti nel semestre evidenziano una crescita del 35% rispetto allo stesso periodo dello scorso anno, senza paragoni a parità di perimetro. Ancor più significativo il cambio di marcia nella raccolta gestita che con i 328 milioni di euro di giugno portano il totale da inizio anno a €1.587 milioni, praticamente sul medesimo livello realizzato nell’intero esercizio precedente.

Sintesi: Cda delibera aumento di capitale ed emissione prestito obbligazionario convertibile
Il Consiglio di Amministrazione di Sintesi ha deliberato un aumento di capitale in denaro fino ad un massimo di Euro 17.488.873,80 e l’emissione del prestito obbligazionario convertibile denominato “Sintesi S.p.A. 6% 2013-2018 convertibile con facoltà di rimborso in azioni” per l’ammontare massimo di Euro 12.145.051,00.

Nomura ha alzato il target price di GTech
Nomura ha portato il target price di GTech da 22 a 28,8 euro mentre la raccomandazione resta “buy”. Secondo Nomura il consensus degli analisti sembra non prendere in considerazione le prospettive di crescita negli States.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch taglia il target di Saipem
Gli esperti di Bank Of America Merrill Lynch tagliano il target price di Saipem da 16 a 13 euro e confermano la raccomandazione “underperform”.

Fmi, l’Italia taglia il cuneo fiscale con i proventi dell’Imu sulla prima casa e la tassa di successione
Le Autorità italiane fin dal tardo 2011 hanno intrapreso un percorso importante per il rafforzamento del bilancio pubblico italiano e la trasformazione dell’economia. Così in una nota ieri il Fondo Monetario Internazionale al termine di una missione compiuta nel Paese tra il 24 giugno e il 4 luglio. Il nuovo governo, secondo l’Fmi, ha cominciato ad affrontare i problemi strutturali del Paese, ma sarà fondamentale una crescita economica e la creazione di posti di lavoro. Fra i problemi principali del Paese forti barriere all’ingresso, specialmente nei servizi, e un elevato costo dell’elettricità (oltre il 40% in più che in Francia e in Germania) che mina la competitività dell’Italia. Un sistema di giustizia inefficiente aumenta il costo dell’attività imprenditoriale penalizzata anche dal basso flusso di investimenti in ingresso, dalle piccole dimensioni delle imprese e dei mercati di capitale. Delle riforme già compiute nel mercato del lavoro, l’apertura del settore del gas e la liberalizzazione di alcuni servizi professionali si inseriscono comunque in un’agenda ancora incompleta. Promosso il previsto ripagamento dei debiti delle PA per 40 miliardi di euro nei prossimi 12 mesi. Secondo l’Fmi la riduzione della spesa primaria negli ultimi anni di circa il 2% (nominale) dovrebbe proseguire fino almeno al 2014 con una concentrazione sull’efficienza della pubblica amministrazione. Dovrebbero essere mantenute le tasse sulla prima casa (l’Imu sulla prima casa insomma NdR) e andrebbero rivisti i valori catastali, servono maggiori sforzi nella lotta all’evasione e nuovi strumenti contro il riciclaggio con un aumento sulle tasse di successione. I risparmi potrebbero essere indirizzati verso la riduzione della tassazione sul lavoro (4% di Pil più alta che nella media dell’Eurozona) per rafforzare l’occupazione e incoraggiare redditività delle imprese e investimenti. Serve anche un’accelerazione nelle infrastrutture.

3 Factors Driving the Market Higher – 03/17/2013

3 Factors Driving the Market Higher
by Mitch Zacks, Senior Portfolio Manager

The stock market is hitting multi-year highs as U.S. equities are shrugging off any negative news. We’ve identified 3 factors that are driving this market higher. We discuss each of them below:

1. US Jobs Numbers

Around 200,000 jobs were added in November, December, January, and now, just recently, in February. We haven’t seen this strong of a flow in jobs data in over five years. Both ADP jobs data and the Federal government payroll data have showed strength. Unemployment claims were also recently reported at a five-year low.

In September 2012, we saw the U.S. economy adding 100,000 jobs a month. At that time, there were concerns of an economic slowdown caused by the “Fiscal Cliff”. This resulted in the most recent round of Fed bond purchases. In other words, poor fiscal behavior brought monetary authorities to action once again.

We believe the Fed’s quantitative easing program (essentially printing money) has triggered these improving monthly jobs numbers.

We are in the intermediate phase of GDP growth now. With sequestration spending cuts in place, we were looking to see 1.3% to 1.9% GDP growth for the U.S. economy. However, given the strength of these job numbers, our expectations are now up to 3.0% GDP growth for 2013.

Strength in the stock market seems to be predicting this enhanced GDP outlook for 2013. A fairly solid, full-steam ahead economy appears to be here.

One major risk is that the Fed takes its foot off the gas pedal earlier than expected. Therefore, we are watching the FOMC minutes closely.

2. Mario Draghi and Europe Relief

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (the ECB), recently kept his short-term policy rate fixed at 0.75%.

In a press conference, Mario Draghi said, “You know the rules. The ball is in the government’s hands”. This is the language of Draghi and the market is buying it. The ECB has made it clear that they will take whatever steps necessary to stabilize the European economic situation.

Mario Draghi also spoke of rising cross-border flows of capital in Europe. This is a sign of the beginning of stabilization. In addition, policymakers have decreased their rhetoric associated with an economic “Domino Effect” caused by peripheral EU countries. As a result, a total collapse of Europe’s financial system is less of a concern.

As the risk of a financial systemic shock in Europe declines, U.S. stock markets rise.

We think another round of policymaking in Europe is needed to help GDP growth. Policymakers at the EU and at the ECB have to go further; and if they do, it will push the S&P 500 higher.
3. Hugo Chavez and Oil Prices

Recently, WTI Crude Oil fell to about $90 from close to $98 a barrel. In other words, we’ve witnessed a nearly 10% drop in oil prices over the last month. The oil markets may be pricing in the passing of Hugo Chavez.

Venezuela is a part of OPEC, and the change in the profile of oil risk, via OPEC, went down. It is now less likely that OPEC will keep their strident pace of collusion on course. As a dictator that nationalized oil companies and sought control with an iron fist, his passing is viewed as a positive sign for the region. His passing may allow Venezuela to embrace a free market, something that would certainly be a chink in the armor of OPEC.

There also continues to be a North American advance in oil and natural gas production. These fresh techniques can be applied to Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves when the heavy oil sands are included that are located there.

We are still range bound in oil between $90 and $100, but we may remain towards the bottom of that range. As geopolitical risks fall, volatility in oil decreases and this price range shrinks. The increasing stability in the energy market is important to the U.S. economy.

As the global economy gets stronger, demand for oil usually rises, and so does its price. With the potential for new Venezuelan supply, and lower political risk, oil prices are likely to remain stable.

What Does this Mean for Investors?

We are faced with an increasingly rosy economic scenario. Investors are beginning to expect positive things to happen. However, when expectations get high, the risk of disappointment is great.

Market movements are independent of one another over time. Historically, the stock market rises about 70% of the time and declines 30% of the time. This probability is independent over time. In other words, don’t become overly optimistic. Markets rise and fall and it would be normal to see a 10% correction in this market.

As we previously stated, another round of policy activity in Europe could lead to GDP growth there. That is one catalyst to look for which could take U.S. markets even higher.
About Mitch Zacks

Mitch is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Zacks Investment Management. He wrote a weekly column for the Chicago Sun-Times and has published two books on quantitative investment strategies. He has a B.A. in Economics from Yale University and an M.B.A. in Analytic Finance from the University of Chicago.

Mitch also is a Portfolio Manager for the Zacks Small Cap Core Fund ( ZSCCX ).

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Friday 01/03/2013

F R I D A Y   M O R N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 28–

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the fourth-quarter GDP estimate, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index.

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today on another “risk on” day in the market
place. The U.S. government’s likely inability to agree on a
taxing and spending plan by the March 1 sequestration
deadline on Friday is being mostly ignored in the world
market place late this week. President Obama will meet with
congressional leaders Friday on the budget matters. Traders
and investors are becoming somewhat numb to the ongoing
squabbling in Washington, D.C. The European Union and its
sovereign debt problems have surfaced again this week. The
Italian elections failed to show a clear winner as voters
ostensibly rebuked present government austerity measures.
The head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) said Thursday the Italian election
gridlock will not significantly impact the EU debt crisis
and efforts to stabilize it. There were Italian government
debt auctions Tuesday and Wednesday that were deemed
successful, even though yields were a bit higher. On
Thursday, Spanish and Italian bond yields fell slightly, in
another positive sign the EU debt crisis is now stable. The
latest episode in the EU debt crisis appears to be calming
down just a bit as the week progresses. European Central
Bank chief Mario Draghi said Thursday he will continue to
“preserve the integrity” of the Euro currency. European
stock markets were mostly higher Thursday on better
corporate earnings reports coming out of Europe. The
seemingly improved attitudes in the market place, regarding
the EU debt crisis, are also an underlying bullish factor
for stocks this week.

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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2/32 at 143 23/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 141 25/32.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a fresh two-

month low overnight. Bears have downside technical momentum.
In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at
$89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=currencies

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index higher early today and hit another
fresh six-month high overnight. The greenback bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.500 and then
at 82.750. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.000 and then
at the overnight low of 81.850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

METALS: April gold futures closed down $16.90 an ounce
at $1,578.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
again today as the bears tighten their near-term grip on
the yellow metal. There has been better risk appetite in
the market place late this week, amid some stronger U.S.
economic data, and that has helped to pressure the safe-

haven gold market. Gold prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart.

May silver futures closed down $0.505 an ounce at $28.49
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh monthly low close today, which is another
bearish clue. May silver bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart.

May N.Y. copper closed down 195 points at 354.75 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed
at a bearish monthly low close. Prices Tuesday hit a three-

month low. Copper bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=food

SOFTS: May sugar closed up 37 points at 18.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh three-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart. Good follow-through buying interest
on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term
technical momentum and it would also begin to suggest a
market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-

month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was at least
temporarily negated today.

May coffee closed down 105 points at 142.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today as prices hover
just above the recent contract low. A stronger U.S. dollar
index today was bearish for coffee. The coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

May cocoa closed up $2 at $2,133 a ton. Prices closed near
mid-range again today. Prices are hovering near an 8.5-

month low. A stronger U.S. dollar index limited the upside
in cocoa today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-

old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

May cotton closed up 110 points at 85.48 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
9.5-month high today. Prices also closed at a bullish
monthly high close today. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside power late this week.

May orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.2490 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. FCOJ bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely.

May lumber futures closed up $9.90 at $385.80 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Bulls have the near-

term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $372.50.

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=grains

GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 9 cents at $7.04
1/4 today in late trading. Prices were near the session
high and hit a fresh two-week high today. Price action also
saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading
range at lower levels. If there is follow-through strength
and a bullish weekly high close on Friday, that would give
the bulls some fresh upside technical momentum to suggest
that a near-term market low is in place. A four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart was also negated today. A
bullish double-bottom reversal pattern also could be
forming on the daily bar chart, to also suggest a market
bottom is in place.

May soybeans were up 17 3/4 cents at $14.57 1/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
again today on more short covering and bargain hunting.
Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field.

May soybean meal was up $8.60 at $437.20 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Prices were poised to close
at a bullish monthly high close today. Bulls today regained
the slight near-term technical advantage.

May bean oil was down 34 points at 49.33 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
poised to close at a bearish monthly low close today.
Spreaders have been selling bean oil and buying meal. Bean
oil bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 1/2 cents at $7.15 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit
an eight-month low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage.

May HRW wheat was up 8 1/4 cents at $7.51 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit an eight-

month low. HRW bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.10 at
$129.77 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Cattle futures bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. A close on Friday at or near the weekly
high would be a clue that a market bottom is in place.

April feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $144.92 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The feeder bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage.

April lean hogs closed up $0.05 at $81.05 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did poke to a fresh 8.5-

month low. The hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. A choppy three-month-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart.

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T H A N K   Y O U
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